AIMS 3770 - Dr. Leon
Spring 2015
Midterm 1 Study Guide
This exam assumes that you are able to:
1) Forecasting:
a) Perform the 10 steps of the forecasting process (ppt flowchart)
b) Decompose a time series into its behavioral components (trend, seasonality,
random variation)
c) Calculate the following time series techniques in Excel:
i) Naïve Approach
ii) Moving Averages
iii) Simple Exponential Smoothing
iv) Trend Projections
v) Seasonal Adjustments
d) Calculate and interpret the MAD and MAPD in Excel
e) Calculate associative forecasts by performing
i) simple linear regression in Excel
ii) multiple linear regression in Excel
f) Interpret R2: the % of variation in Y explained by the model. Understand when to
use R2 –vs- Adjusted R2
g) Identify and interpret the meaning of significant coefficients
h) Plot a scatter diagram
i) Compare and contrast different forecast models (graph interpretation, measure of
performance, R2 coefficient of determination) and defend which model you prefer
2) Aggregate Planning:
a) Describe the decision variables (also referred to as tools or options) for balancing
supply and demand
b) Describe benefits and drawbacks of each decision variable (reading assignment 1)
c) Identify examples of how companies implement the different decision variables
(reading assignment 1)
EXAM STRUCTURE:
The exam will have 3 main sections. Two of the sections will be problems on TimeSeries forecasting and associative forecasting. The last section will be on aggregate
planning.
The Aggregate Planning section consists of short answer questions. It is worth around 15
points and will test your understanding of options available for balancing supply and
demand in manufacturing. It will expect you to be familiar with the examples and
articles highlighted in reading assignment 1.
The Forecasting sections will require you to be able to calculate different forecasting
approaches and measures of performances. You will be asked questions regarding a
specific set of data and a company. These sections will require use of Excel and will test
your understanding of steps in the 10 step forecasting process discussed in class. These
two sections when combined will be worth around 85 points.
Formulas for the forecasting portions of the exam will be provided using the notation
presented in the powerpoint class slides. This exam is closed book, closed notes and
closed internet. No calculators, cell phones or other electronics may be used during the
exam. Students must use the classroom laptop.