Anticipating Future:
Major Global Trends
2015 – 2035
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Contents
Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................. 3
Anticipating Future: Major Global Trends 2015 – 2035 ........................................................................ 4
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 4
Energy Outlook .................................................................................................................................................. 4
Environment Change ....................................................................................................................................... 7
Demographic trends ........................................................................................................................................ 8
Food and Water Security ............................................................................................................................ 10
Cyber security and access to technologies........................................................................................... 11
Transnational Crimes and Trans-border Movements ..................................................................... 12
Regional Economic Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 13
Global Conflict Environment ..................................................................................................................... 16
Conclusion............................................................................................................................................................. 17
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Executive Summary
The world we see today is turbulent. Short of a world war, today’s global landscape is
facing immense and increasingly complex challenges. Mapping the future is difficult partly
due to the gaps in the existing understandings of world events and also due to potential
game changers or wild cards that may suddenly emerge. Therefore, futuristic studies
remain uncertain subject but they needed by both state and corporate entities which
require global research and analysis.
This report attempts to explain how the world may look like twenty years from now where.
Nine different issues are selected that will be critical in the development of world in the
2035. These are global conflict environment, energy outlook, environmental change, food
and water security, demographic trends, regional economic connectivity and trans-national
crimes including border movements. Each section describes current trends, potential
challenges in the areas mentioned above and their impact twenty years from now. Official
data and credible reports have been used to extrapolate the scenarios for 2035.
The only constant factor in the 21st century is change. Geopolitical shifts and technological
advancements will be some of the prominent factors shaping the forthcoming years. Some
megatrends will redefine how the coming generations will be affected. Therefore more
demands from less resources, in the context of the world’s depleting natural resources and
increasing demand for those resources through economic and population growth. Growth
in traditional and non-traditional security challenges lead states to make policies at
political, economic and military levels.
All the indicators and trends discussed are directional that can supplement future policy
planning possibilities, which could be feasible and desirable for coping with the challenges.
All these global constitute the composite challenge for seeking the most accurate
predictions.
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Anticipating Future: Major Global Trends 2015 – 2035
Introduction
The world in 2035 will be shaped by a complex set of factors, and will be driven by multiple
dynamics. The outcome of the many forces and drivers is highly uncertain over at this time.
But one thing is certain: majority of those who will be inhabiting the world in 2035, have
been born and living in different parts of our world. The future can be imagined based on
the prevailing trends, and data available to us, including studies undertaken around the
world in this regard. At present, the world is experiencing intensified strain on resources
due to fast pace of growth of emerging economies. These patterns of economic growth and
social and economic development, dynamics of political interests and interactions within
societies as well as between states, emergence and spread of new technologies, and
diffusion of power, will shape the world in the next twenty years.
Energy Outlook
The global energy politics will focus on the demand of the energy in developing nations of
Asia and the supply of energy by Middle Eastern countries. British Petroleum (BP) projects
that by 2035 global energy consumption will increase by 41% from current levels and most
of the growth (around 90%) will be in non-OECD and majority of it in India and China.
Moreover, increases in power generation capacities will amount to around 60% of the
growth.1
Meanwhile, global energy demand will progressively grow by nearly one-third by 2035 at
the rate of 1% per annum. China will grow at 2% per annum, India at 3% per annum, and
Middle East at 2% per annum, thus making up for nearly 60% of the total increase. The,
energy demand in highly industrialized OECD countries will increase at 0.1-0.2pc per
annum.
“Energy Outlook 2030; Fact Sheet,” BP Corporate, Accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/EnergyOutlook/Energy_Outlook_insights_2035.pdf
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The estimated global energy mix in 2035 will comprise of coal accounting for 24.5%, oil
27.1%, gas 23.9, Nuclear 6.6%, Hydro 2.8%, Bioenergy 10.9%, and other renewables 4.1%.2
British Petroleum also estimates that in 2035, oil with 28% will remain the dominant fuel
in the world, coals will make up 27%, natural gas will comprise 26%, and renewable
energy sources will contribute 7% to the energy mix.3
In 2035, it is projected that fossil fuels will meet around 60% of the global demands. Oil is
estimated to be the slowest growing fossil fuels and its daily production will rise to 109
MB/d only by 2035. Supply of natural gas will increase to 500 Bcf/d by 2035 and the
industry will remain the primary consumer i.e. around 4 %, of it. The renewable sources of
energy will, however, grow at 7-8% per annum, but will only meet nearly 4% of the total
demand. There will be a surge in usage of unconventional gas (shale gas backed by fracking
technology) in the United States. Moreover, many countries are already looking to emulate
this success story. China has the highest potential, while Australia, Europe and Latin
America will be looking towards diversifying their sources of energy.4
Production of unconventional shale gas will reshape global energy landscape. The US which
currently meets nearly 20% of its energy demand by importing oil, will become selfsufficient by a rising production of oil and shale gas by 2035. US is gradually moving
towards phasing out coal and oil, replacing it with Shale gas, thus incrementally reducing
coal and oil from its energy mix. By 2035, US will be fulfilling 101% of its energy needs
through indigenous sources, up from a low mark of 69% in 2005, thus becoming energy
self-sufficient in next two decades.5
In the meantime, China is going to overtake European Union as the world’s largest
geographic region of energy consumption. Europe will continue to be largest global
“Global Energy Politics,” Chandra Bhushan, CSE India, Accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.cseindia.org/userfiles/Global%20energy%20politics.pdf
3 “Energy Outlook 2035; Fact Sheet,” BP Corporate, Accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/EnergyOutlook/Energy_Outlook_insights_2035.pdf
4 “BP Energy Outlook 2030,” BP Corporate (BP): 4,14,17, Accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/EnergyOutlook/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf
5 Ibid. 2
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importer of natural gas, and China will become the largest importer of oil in the world. On
the other hand, the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia will meet more than a third of global fuel
demands. Russia will remain the largest net exporter of hydrocarbons, with its net exports
meeting approximately 4.2% of global energy demand. Moreover, by 2035, nearly 90% of
Middle Eastern oil and gas will be exported to Asian economies.6
Nuclear energy is considered as a viable and important source of energy and would be
integral part to the world over the next fifty years.7 As of May 2014, 30 countries
worldwide are operating 435 nuclear reactors for electricity generation and 72 new
nuclear plants are under construction in 15 countries.8 Nuclear power plants provided
12.3% of the world's electricity production in 2012. In total, 13 countries relied on nuclear
energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity.9
The outlook for nuclear energy demand and supply associated with the investment
estimates differs only marginally from 2013. Global primary energy demand will rise by
around one-third in the period to 2035 driven higher mainly by China, India, ASEAN and
the Middle East. Oil and coal consumption will grow more slowly than the overall rise in
energy demand (12% and 16%) while natural gas rise by 44%, nuclear rise by 74%, and
modern renewable energy sources will rise by 134%.10
Despite the relatively high costs, recent accidents and growing public opposition in some
regions, nuclear power is back on the agenda of many countries, primarily for three
reasons: it has predictable long-term generation costs, it is not exposed to the volatile fossil
fuels markets, and it can enhance energy security and bring along climate-change
mitigation benefits. Nuclear’s economic competitiveness depends on local conditions
including available alternatives, market structures and government policy.
“How will Global Energy Markets Evolve in 2035?,” World Energy Outlook Factsheet (2012), Accessed
January 5 2015, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/factsheets.pdf
7 Harrison Jacobs, "The 17 Countries Generating The Most Nuclear Power", Business Insider, March 6, 2014,
Accessed January 5 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/countries-generating-the-most-nuclear-energy2014-3?op=1
8 "World Statistics: Nuclear Energy Around the World", Nuclear Energy Institute, Accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.nei.org/Knowledge-Center/Nuclear-Statistics/World-Statistics
9 Nuclear power plants provided 12.3 percent of the world's electricity production in 2012. In total, 13
countries relied on nuclear energy to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity.
10 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weio2014.pdf
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Environment Change
The environmental challenges are of an increasingly complex and of global nature. Their
impact will be visible over next few decades. However, natural environment has been
stressed by unprecedented population growth and human activity from the onset of
industrial revolution. The ever increasing demands for more natural resources, the
machine revolution in agriculture, production of hazardous waste as by-product of
industrialization, a globalizing and rapidly growing economy, and fast-paced urbanization
around the world, have led to unsustainable environmental degradation. In turn, these
changes go on to reduce access to, and fertility of arable land, affect quality of clean air, and
biodiversity loss. Steady climate change will reduce land available for habitation, because a
few geographic regions will undergo desertification, and some areas might be flooded
permanently due to rising sea levels. Similarly, weather patterns across regions will be
transformed, with regular occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as heat waves,
droughts, storms and floods.11 Fertilizers are used to add nutrients to the soil to promote
soil fertility and increase plant growth. However, these fertilizers in return have negatively
impacted on the quality of soil and environment. The biggest issue facing the use of
chemical fertilizers is groundwater contamination. Nitrogen fertilizers break down into
nitrates and travel easily through the soil. Because it is water-soluble and can remain in
groundwater for decades, the addition of more nitrogen over the years has an accumulative
negative effect.12
One popular fertilizer, urea, produces ammonia emanation, contributes to acid rain,
groundwater contamination and ozone depletion due to release of nitrous oxide by
denitrification process. With its increased use and projections of future use, this problem
may increase several fold in the coming decades. Groundwater contamination has been
“Population Growth, Environment and Food Security: What Does the Future Hold?,” Horizon Future Issues
for Development, (August 2009), Accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.eldis.org/vfile/upload/1/document/0908/Horizon_Briefing_August2.pdf
12 Erik Devaney, Environmental Effects of Chemical Fertilizers, accessed January 6, 2015,
http://www.ehow.com/list_6374965_environmental-effects-chemical-fertilizers.html
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linked to gastric cancer, goiter, birth malformations, and hypertension; testicular
cancer and stomach cancer. 13
The environmental impact of pesticides consists of the effects of pesticides on nontarget species. Over 98% of sprayed insecticides and 95% of herbicides reach a destination
other than their target species, because they are sprayed or spread across entire
agricultural fields.14 Runoff can carry pesticides into aquatic environments while wind can
carry them to other fields, grazing areas, human settlements and undeveloped areas,
potentially affecting other species. Other problems emerge from poor production,
transport and storage practices.15 Over time, repeated application increases pest
resistance, while its effects on other species can facilitate the pest's resurgence.16
Due to reliance of fossil fuels for energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will
continue to increase rapidly. It is estimated that by 2030, world CO2 emissions will be
more than twice the 1990s levels.17 BP estimates that in the next two decades, by 2035,
CO2 emissions will increase by 29% largely due to increasing demand for energy from
developing countries, mostly in Asia.18 Across the European Union, CO2 emissions are
estimated to increase by 18 % by 2030, as compared to 1990 level. Similarly, in the US, the
increase is projected to be around 50%. On the other hand, developing countries, which
added 30% emissions in 1990, will produce more than half of global CO2 in 2030s.19
Demographic trends
Human population growth is perhaps the most significant cause of the complex problems
the world faces today. A “natural population increase” occurs when the birth rate is higher
than the death rate. But national population growth rate depends on the natural increase
and on migration of people. World population growth, however, is determined solely by the
Understanding the Effects of Chemical Fertilizers, accessed January 6, 2015,
http://www.sustainablebabysteps.com/effects-of-chemical-fertilizers.html
14 George Tyler Miller, Sustaining the Earth: An Integrated Approach, (USA: Brooks Cole Pub; 2004) 211–216
15 Ibid.
16 Christos A. Damalas and Ilias G. Eleftherohorinos, Pesticide Exposure, Safety Issues, and Risk Assessment
Indicators, May 6, 2011, accessed January 6, 2014,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3108117/
17 European Commission, “World energy, technology and climate policy outlook,” WETO 2030, (2003): 37,
accessed January 5, 2015, https://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto_final_report.pdf
18 Ibid, 3.
19 Ibid, 8.
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by the natural increase. Over last two centuries, the world has experienced unprecedented
increased in global population growth and this trend is likely to continue for foreseeable
future. World population will increase, for next two decades, at annual rate of nearly 1%
due to advances in medicines, improved quality of food and sanitation conditions.20 In
2035, according to United Nations projections, there will be more than 8.7 billion human
beings inhabiting our planet.21 Other estimates (on the medium variant projection) put it at
near 8.6 billion.22 80% of global population increased is projected to take place in Asia and
Africa.23 China’s population will reach its high point around 2030 and India will replace
China as the world’s most populous country by 2020.24
Presently, half of global population is very young, with median age around 28 years. But
overall global population is ageing, mostly in the developed nations. By 2035 large part of
the developing world will also age. Some developing countries and regions, that currently
have majority age population, will witness growth of a young population.25 In 2035, the age
groups will range from very young people (median age of 25) to the very old people, who
lived longer than any period in human history before. The countries (mostly in the West)
with majority as aged population will have to face tough challenges in maintaining high
living standard. Today’s developed world in 2030s will be faced with the challenge of
slower GDP growth or even stagnation. Thus, to continue the economic activity demand for
skilled and unskilled labor, to new wave of migration across continents may occur.
Yuhji Matsuo, Akira Yanagisawa, and Yukari Yamashita, “A Global Energy Outlook with Strategic
Considerations for Asia and Middle-East Energy Supply and Demand Interdependencies,” Strategy Options
and Models for the MENA Energy Transition, Accessed January 6, 2015, http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/4934.pdf
21 “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision,” Population Division of the Department of Economic and
Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, (New York, 2013), Accessed on January 6, 2015,
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm
22 “Forward 2035,” Australian Government Department of Defence, (Canberra 2014): 6, Accessed on January
6, 2015, http://www.dsto.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/documents/Forward-2035.pdf
23 Ibid.
24 “World Population Prospects,” Population Division, Accessed on January 6, 2015,
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm
25 “Population Growth, Environment and Food Security: What Does the Future Hold?,” Horizon Future Issues
for Development, (August 2009), Accessed January 6, 2015,
http://www.eldis.org/vfile/upload/1/document/0908/Horizon_Briefing_August2.pdf
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Food and Water Security
The growing nexus among population and changing demographic patterns, rising incomes
spurred by economic growth means that urbanization will increase in next two decades
and will put strain on food and water resources. The demand for food and water will
increase by more than 35 % by 2030 owing to significant increase in world population.26
On supply side, food production has increased significantly over last hundred years by
adoption of new agriculture techniques, advances in science and technology leading to
increasing yields due to new and innovative irrigation systems, fertilizer usage and
expansion of agriculture to new lands.27 In coming decades vertical farming–in high rise
buildings–can meet new demands. However, changing weather patterns due to climate
change are also aggravating food and water security. Governments and private sector will
have to work towards avoiding scarcities of essential resources by effective management of
critical resources. By 2035, genetic and scientific modification of food will become a
necessity, for human consumption. New agricultural techniques such as better rain-fed
agriculture and irrigation management, genetic engineering for higher-yielding crops, and
aquaculture would be widely practiced across the globe to increase global productivity.
Water is also becoming increasingly scarce. At present, nearly 2 billion people are living in
areas facing water stress or scarcity.28 If current trends continue, 90% of freshwater
supplies will disappear by 2030.29 A study found that in 2030, annual global water
requirement will reach 6,900 billion cubic meters i.e. 40 % above current water supplies.30
Nearly 40% of world population inhabits areas near or adjacent to river basins and over
200 of these basins are spread over two or more than two countries, creating interdependencies and mutual vulnerabilities from changes in demand and supply of water.
Studies project that by 2035, 3.6 billion people (40% of the estimated world population)
“Alternative Worlds: Global Trends 2030 Report,” National Intelligence Council, (December 2012): 30,
Accessed on January 5, 2015, http://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030november2012.pdf
27 Ibid 6.
28 Ibid.
29 Ibid.
30 “Alternative Worlds,” National Intelligence Council, 30.
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will inhabit the areas with water stress or scarcities, as growth in world population will
lead more countries and region to become water scarce.31
Cyber security and access to technologies
Internet users are likely to become more engaged in politically-motivated networking, and
will demand unfettered access to the internet. Social networking on one hand, will enable
people to challenge governments, while on the other, these communication technologies
will also provide governments unprecedented capabilities to monitor their citizens. The
tensions between these two opposing forces will continue and governing systems in many
countries will remain under pressure in coming decades.
Moreover calls for privacy will increase. Internet companies are driven by economic
interests, and citizens are therefore vulnerable to the abuse of stored information. The
debate about privacy and accuracy of information will become more acute. The digitization
of so many aspects of people’s lives and businesses presents an enormous opportunity for
improved efficiency and productivity, but it also presents a significant new type of risk in
the form of cyber security challenges.
Governments will face pressure to protect their citizens, their own operations, and the
security of their nations from threats not envisaged before. The European Union Institute
for Security Studies predicts that "over the next two decades, the cyber sphere is likely to
become an arena of conflict and tension between states of all political stripes, not the least
among those for which cyber security is a key component of intelligence and military
strategy, and also between individuals or private companies."32
This trend also exposes threats to critical infrastructure from both enemy states and nonstate actors in a new manner.33 Cyber attackers can infiltrate nuclear plants or disrupt
“Why Population Matters to Water Resources,” Population Action International, Accessed on January 6,
2015, http://populationaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/PAI-1293-WATER-4PG.pdf
32 “Global Trends 2013: Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World,” European Strategy and Policy
Analysis System (ESPAS), (October 2011): 15, Accessed on January 6, 2015,
http://europa.eu/espas/pdf/espas_report_ii_01_en.pdf
33 Ibid 7.
31
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financial systems.34 As the security dimensions of global internet connectivity become
increasingly salient, the traditional neutrality and stakeholder governance model of
internet governance will need to change.35
In the future, the military itself will also merge with other agencies adept at computer
warfare. Jamming radar, disabling infrared detection, silencing lasers and other future
weapons may be accomplished with cyber warfare. These cyber instruments of warfare
providing precision-strike capabilities will also be widely available to actors, other than
states, across the world. This will lead to a transformation of the nature of conflict, as
capabilities of states and their monopoly over instruments of violence will be contested
because individual and small groups will be able to perpetuate large-scale violence and
disrupt peace.
Transnational Crimes and Trans-border Movements
The trend of globalization has facilitated an unprecedented growth in trade as well as its
illicit counterpart. The major global impact of transnational crime has risen to unmatched
levels. Criminals adapted new technologies and horizontal networks which diversified
nature of challenges for years to come and has been led to unparalleled scale of global
transnational crime which crosses borders.36 The international community requires solid
data to determine the challenge and effectiveness of responses, but data on transnational
crime is difficult to gather and is often politicized.
Major challenges include national policing and border control, a critical choke point to
stopping crime. In an era of globalization, regional cooperation, particularly at borders, is
generally fragile despite various initiatives. Building norms is progressing but is still weak
and vaguely defined. However, as crime is becoming transnationalized, crime
control remains largely inadequate behind national borders. The most inevitable challenge
Siobhan Gorman and Siobhan Hughes, "US Steps up Alarm over Cyber attacks ".The Wall Street Journal,
March 13, 2013, accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323826704578356182878527280?mg=reno64wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB1000142412788732382670457835618287852
7280.html
35 James Andrew Lewis. “What’s next in Cyber Security? ” in Critical Questions for 2013: Global Challenges.
Center for Strategic and International Studies. ed. Gerald Hyman, January 25, 2013, accessed January 5, 2015,
http://csis.org/publication/critical-questions-2013-global-challenges#k
36 “Global Regime for Transnational Crime,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 25, 2013, Accessed on January
6, 2015, http://www.cfr.org/transnational-crime/global-regime-transnational-crime/p28656#p1
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is corruption in normative and institutional progress, which fosters the ideal environment
for transnational organized crime. It broadens the spectrum of illicit markets, from drugs
and arms trafficking to environmental crime and counterfeit markets. The issue of narcotrafficking is an on growing challenge in the criminalization paradigm. However, narcotrafficking is arguably the most legislated and enforced sector of transnational crime.
The emerging challenge for forthcoming years is illicit weapons, though awareness is rising
but scope to control this immense problem remains bleak. It fuels conflict among and
within states as well as empowers pernicious non-state actors such as gangs, pirates, and
terrorists. This problem is deep rooted and includes illicit transfer or diversion of
materials, technology, and components ranging from small arms to weapons of mass
destruction (WMD). Other challenge includes illicit markets as the platform for all crimes
and a major stumble block for future trends. Counterfeit medicines, human trafficking and
migrant smuggling and, at a lower level organ trafficking are also a challenge for future non
- traditional security.
Trans-boundary issues present unique challenges for a number of reasons. Those leading
to mutual concerns that arise from the shared natural area, resource, system, or migration.
Such issues do not remain within jurisdictional boundaries. More often than not, they cross
the political boundaries between nations. Conflicts that arise and are caused in one state
can spill over into another. Porous borders are the vital reason for many countries who
have weak economy, insufficient equipment, or political will to effectively monitor illegal
activity at border crossings.37
Regional Economic Connectivity
There are three critical regions which will play a prominent role in deciding the future of
regional economic and political connectivity. These are European Union (EU), Association
of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC). Dominant political and economic indicators and future scenarios of the regions
covered by these organization are explained below:
37“Crimes
of a Global Nature,” World Watch Institute, January 6, 2015, accessed on January 6, 2015,
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/523
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European Union (EU): A major trend in the EU will be constant tension between debtor
and creditor states. The 2008 is crisis still having a major impact on the EU and has led to
growing differences between debtor and creditor states as there are two different and at
times irreconcilable narratives about the causes of the crisis and its resolution. Another
trend likely to emerge on European continent is tension between Eurozone and nonEurozone members. This is generating concern about the EU’s ability to maintain minimum
levels of internal cohesion. It is also fuelling the debate in Britain about continued EU
membership; it is quite possible that the UK may not remain a member in 2030. Meanwhile
concerns about political legitimacy of EU will grow. The 2008 crisis raised fresh doubts
about the legitimacy of the EU’s decision-making process, particularly in southern
European member states. This has given rise to Euro skeptic parties within Europe. The
political rise of Euro skeptic parties will become the dominant trend in Europe if the
legitimacy of the economic bloc continued to be challenged.
EU-Russia Relations: The EU will be facing an unstable political environment within the
continent. EU-Russia relations will be the key factor in determining EU’s political
cohesiveness. Europe efforts to diversify its energy supplies away from single source i.e.
Russia will increase its bargaining position with Russia over the expansion of NATO into
areas critical to Russian interests e.g. Ukraine. The direction of Germany in Europe is also
critical in the sustainability of the European project.
Based on the continuation of above trends and potential game changer a few scenarios can
be postulated. First is the collapse scenario, which projects financial instability, and weaker
European institutions. Impact may be loss of 16% of EU’s GDP in the period up to 2030 and
end of regional integration.38 Second is slow decline scenario which may result from an
attempt to maintain Eurozone intact without addressing long term problems of
government, finance, regional inequalities and unemployment. Economic convergence will
be put on hold. In this scenario: EU growth over 2010-30 is expected to be 0.8% per
annum.39 Third is, the European Renaissance scenario, with a multi-speed Europe and
Charles Powell, “Europe and the World in 2030, European Union: What Kind of Global Actor? “ February 25
2013, accessed from : www.tegs.eu/upl/files/86748.pdf
39 Ibid
38
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Eurozone divided into several currency areas (North, West, UK, South, East). Europe would
have completed its diversification of energy supplies away from Russia. EU growth over
2010-30 would be 2% per annum40. Strong federalism, powerful central bank and central
budget; will lead to again, 2% growth per annum.41
Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN): In recent years, Southeast Asia has
emerged as a key player in the global energy system. Growing thirst for energy is driven by
sustained economic & social development. There are diverse set of countries with vast
differences in patterns of energy use. Many of the individual countries are increasingly
reliant on energy imports although the region as a whole is rich in energy resources.
Fundamentals suggest energy needs will continue to grow, and the economy will triple by
2035, despite some headwinds at present.42 Population of 600 million will expand by
almost one-quarter by 2035.43
Southeast Asia – along with China & India – is shifting the centre of gravity of the global
energy system to Asia. This trend will continue in the next 20 years. Its energy production
and demand has implications which will be felt well beyond the region. Developing policies
to improve efficiency & attract investment will be vital for enhancing energy security,
affordability & sustainability. The region faces global challenges, underscoring the need to
enhance cooperation intra-regionally & with international partners. Balancing relationship
with China and the United States will be difficult as the US is increasing its strategic focus to
Asia – Pacific region.
Resolution of competing claims between ASEAN member states and China over South
China Sea is unlikely. Strengthening the code of conduct on South China Sea to prevent
escalation of tensions with China is possible in the next 20 years, but convincing P-5 to join
South East Asian NWFZ will be difficult.
Ibid
Ibid
42 Florian Kitt, “ South East Asia Energy Outlook”, November 25 2013, accessed from:
https://www.iea.org/media/training/bangkoknov13/Session_1a_IEA_WEO2013_ASEAN_Outlook.pdf
43 Ibid
40
41
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South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC): Pakistan-India strategic
competition will continue to put limitations on the effectiveness of the organization.
However a breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations cannot be ruled out entirely. Wide gap
in power differentials amongst states in the region will continue to contribute towards its
limitations. Formation and effectiveness of regional trade agreements could increase in
next twenty years.
The ability of affected states to undertake consultations on disputed matters in economic
and political areas will be limited albeit not entirely out of question. Establishment of South
Asian Free Trade agreements (SAFTA) for economic growth of the region may be likely.
Global Conflict Environment
The likelihood of increase in civil wars is high. Wars fuelled by nationalism, ethnicity and
external support and their humanitarian repercussions will be the central security
challenge in future. Terrorism will remain a concern, but low-intensity conflicts such as
urban violence will require the increasing attention of governments. Internal tensions may
lead to sub-national autonomy and internal secessionism in federal states, mostly within
existing borders, although a few new small countries may be created as in the case of South
Sudan.
A major conflict involving nuclear weapons is less likely in the near future but potential
flashpoints remain critical for conventional wars leading to a possible nuclear exchange.
South Asia, Middle East, Ukraine and South China Sea remain key fault lines in the global
conflict landscape.
Technological leaps in key conventional offensive weapon systems will further exacerbate
anxieties and action-reaction process will increase the likely hood of conflict. Some of these
key weapon system include ballistic missile defense, Anti-Satellite System and Hypersonic
Conventional Strike Platforms. Military operations conducted entirely in outer space
remain a distant scenario.
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Conclusion
In 2035, the world economic and environmental indictors will be distinct for every region.
The size of global economy is estimated to nearly double in 2030s, and most of the growth
will be in the emerging economies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa, and other
developing countries. Rising disposable income and ambitions of improved quality of life
will put additional strain on limited natural resources of the planet. The scramble for
resources look to threaten economic prospects of many under-developed countries by
unsystematic use of natural resources, unplanned urbanization and impact of climate
change. Meanwhile developing countries remain vulnerable to rapid climate change due to
lack of financial and institutional capacities to adapt to the changes and respond
effectively.44 Finally, the likelihood of regional conflicts and transnational threats affecting
the global landscape will always loom large on the horizon.
“Environmental Outlook to 2030,” OECD (2008): 6, accessed January 5, 2015,
http://www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/40200582.pdf
44
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