Stefan Wirth
GIS for International Applications
Assignment 2
2/3/12
Oil and Gas Export Networks in Saudi Arabia
Summary
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer and exporter of petroleum products. The
country has approximately one-fifth of the world’s proven oil reserves. It also produces and
releases less petroleum than it is physically capable of – it has a spare production capacity in the
2+ million barrels per day range. Given these characteristics, Saudi Arabia is the most important
player in the global energy markets and there is no other nation that could replace Saudi Arabia’s
production. If there were to be a disruption to the production, processing, or distribution of Saudi
Arabia’s petroleum and natural gas exports, the impact on world energy prices would be
remarkable.
In my project, I want to map and detail the current distribution and export routes for
petroleum and natural gas products in Saudi Arabia. The vast majority of the petroleum deposits
are located in the eastern portion of the country and in offshore fields along the Persian Gulf.
Naturally, the majority of its energy exports are routed through pipelines to port facilities along
the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia does have one major pipeline “East-West” running from the
major oil fields to a port facility in the Western edge of the country, along the Red Sea. I would
like to explore several different scenarios and visualize how (and if) the Saudi Arabian
government would be able to maintain production and ensure energy exports in each scenario:
closure/blockade of the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, significant terrorist attack on
processing facilities or distribution pipelines within Saudi Arabia itself, and increased piracy in
the Bab al-Mandab combined with a disruption in the Suez canal.
Questions
1. How concentrated is the current distribution and export networks in Saudi Arabia?
Most people know that Saudi Arabia is a prominent oil exporter and has significant oil
reserves, but less is understood about how that oil actually gets from below the ground to its final
markets. Since the fields are located in a fairly compact area along the Persian Gulf, it would
seem logical to export the products in ports right there. However, Saudi Arabia understands the
risks of relying completely on a route that is adjacent to their adversary Iran, and has invested in
alternate pipelines/pathways for export of its energy products. I want to quantify and graphically
represent the current flows of petroleum and natural gas (I haven’t been able to find a good map
of this yet, though maybe I’m not looking in the right places) and also the current capabilities of
flows (i.e. if the East-West pipeline were running at full capacity, if the Trans-Arabian pipeline
could be un-mothballed, etc.)
2. How vulnerable is Saudi Arabia’s energy exports to blockade/terrorist attacks/piracy?
Given that Iranian-American and Iranian-Israeli relations are at a heated point, the
potential for Iranian retaliation against the West is higher than normal. One potential issue of
concern would be a closure/blockade/assertion of power in the Straits of Hormuz, through which
much of Saudi Arabia’s and other GCC state’s energy exports must pass through. Even though a
closure of the straits by Iran may not be possible or likely, I want to simulate the impact of that
type of event on Saudi Arabia’s export routes. Additionally (and possibly in conjunction with), I
want to explore other disruptions to export routes – a hypothetical disruption to the Suez canal,
or increased piracy activity in the Bab al-Mandab choke point near Somalia.
I also want to look at past successful and attempted terrorist attacks on Saudi oil
infrastructure and distribution networks. I know that there was a significant attack on the Abqaiq
processing facility in 2006 and that al-Qaeda leadership has called for targeting this
infrastructure, but I’m not sure the extent of other attacks or issues yet.
3. What are Saudi Arabia’s options?
The solution to some of the political/military crisis above could be the construction of a
large-capacity pipeline through areas that did not have the same potential concerns – i.e. another
East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, or a South pipeline that cut through Oman to the Arabian Sea.
I would like to explore the logistical, environmental, and financial aspects of such a
pipeline/alternate route and also an assessment of how long it may take.
References
1. Energy Information Administration – Saudi Arabia Country Analysis
http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SA
This country analysis (and the overall website) helped give me a primer on Saudi
Arabia’s oil production capabilities and facilities. It showed me that the actual location of the
natural resources is very concentrated, and the network of distribution for export is focused on
getting the product to the closest ports, which lie on the Persian Gulf. This makes me think that
the networks are relatively susceptible to disruptions.
2. EIA – World Oil Transit Chokepoints
http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=WOTC
This overview of the shipping routes and chokepoints gave me insight into how
petroleum actually gets to its final markets. The overview highlights how there are a few key
places around Saudi Arabia that could be closed/hindered (Straits of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Bab
al-Mandab). Also, it made me think about the capacity of each route in terms of the size and load
of ships that can move through, and the number of ships that go through relative to its full
capacity (i.e. if a canal or strait already consistently is over capacity and has a waiting line of
ships to get through, it wouldn’t be a great or timely alternative route).
Sources
The EIA website has some very good maps of pipeline routes:
http://205.254.135.7/EMEU/cabs/Saudi_Arabia/images/Oil%20and%20Gas%20Infrastru
ctue%20Persian%20Gulf%20(large)%20(2).gif
Also, pipeline maps here:
http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/middle_east_oil_gas_products_pipelines_map.html#
map
Not sure where else, though I imagine I would need to find some data in shapefile form about
pipelines, locations of facilities, outlines of oil fields/reserves, etc.