Name: _____________________________________________________ Period: _________ Date:_______________________________
Unit 2 - Probability of Simple and Compound Events
STUDENT ASSESSMENT
1. A candy company wants to predict the probability of a seventh grader in your school, school A,
liking chocolate. Records from another school, school B, indicate that 853 of 1,000 seventh graders
like chocolate.
a) Assuming the probability of a seventh grader liking chocolate is similar for the two schools,
estimate the probability that a randomly selected seventh grader from City A likes chocolate
b) According to these data, which of the following is more likely?
• a seventh-grade male liking chocolate
• a seventh grader liking chocolate
Explain your choice.
2. The local poll stated that
vote yes?
a)
b)
c)
d)
2
3
of voter would vote yes on amendment. A) How likely is that they will
It is certain they will vote yes.
It is likely they will vote yes.
It is neither likely nor unlikely they will vote yes.
It is impossible that they will vote yes.
B) Select all probabilistic situations for this scenario.
a) There is a 0.1875 chance of voting yes.
b) There is a 87.5% chance of voting yes.
3
c) There is than a chance of voting yes.
5
d) There is a 63% chance of voting yes.
e) There is a 0.7 chance of voting yes.
Sample Unit Assessment - MJ2 ADV
3. A bag has 2 red marbles and 3 blue marbles. A second bag has 3 red marbles and 4 blue marbles.
a) You randomly choose 1 marble from the first bag and 1 marble from the second bag. What is
the probability that both are red?
b) You randomly choose a marble from the first bag, do not replace it, and randomly choose a
second marble from the same bag. What is the probability that both marbles are blue?
4. A student purchases a bag of pens, and, after opening the bag, finds one pen that does not work.
The student then wonders how unlikely it is to randomly find a pen that does not work for this
brand.
a) Based on the bag of 30 pens, estimate the probability of this company producing a pen that does
not work.
b) Suppose the cookie company claims that 70% of all pen it produces work. Explain how you could
simulate randomly selecting 30 pens (one bag) from such a population to determine how many of
the sampled pens do not work. Explain the details of your method so it could be carried out by
another person.
c) Now explain how you could use simulation to estimate the probability of obtaining a bag of 30
cookies with exactly one pen that does not work.
d) If 70% of the pens made by this company don’t work, would you advise this student to complain to
the company about finding one pen that does not work in her bag of 30? Explain.
Sample Unit Assessment - MJ2 ADV
5. Each of the 20 students in Mrs. June’s class flipped a coin ten times and recorded how many times it
came out heads.
a) How many tails do you think you will see out of eleven tosses?
b) Would it surprise you to see 7 out of eleven tosses? Explain why or why not.
c) Here are the results for the twenty students in Mrs. June’s class. Use this data to estimate the
probability of observing 1, 2 or 3 tails in ten tosses of the coin.
Sample Unit Assessment - MJ2 ADV