Online Appendix 3: Full List of References
1. Daley J, Jencks S, Draper D, Lenhart G, Thomas N, Walker J. Predicting hospitalassociated mortality for Medicare patients. A method for patients with stroke, pneumonia,
acute myocardial infarction, and congestive heart failure. JAMA. 1988 Dec 2330;260(24):3617-24. PubMed PMID: 3057251.
2. Aaronson KD, Schwartz JS, Chen TM, Wong KL, Goin JE, Mancini DM. Development
and prospective validation of a clinical index to predict survival in ambulatory patients
referred for cardiac transplant evaluation. Circulation. 1997 Jun 17;95(12):2660-7.
PubMed PMID: 9193435.
3. Philbin EF, DiSalvo TG. Prediction of hospital readmission for heart failure: development
of a simple risk score based on administrative data. Journal of the American College of
Cardiology. 1999;33(6):1560-6.
4. Rosenthal GE, Baker DW, Norris DG, Way LE, Harper DL, Snow RJ. Relationships
between in-hospital and 30-day standardized hospital mortality: implications for profiling
hospitals. Health Serv Res. 2000 Mar;34(7):1449-68. PubMed PMID: 10737447. PubMed
Central PMCID: 1975659.
5. Jong P, Vowinckel E, Liu PP, Gong Y, Tu JV. Prognosis and determinants of survival in
patients newly hospitalized for heart failure: a population-based study. Arch Intern Med.
2002 Aug 12-26;162(15):1689-94. PubMed PMID: 12153371.
6. Bouvy ML, Heerdink ER, Leufkens HG, Hoes AW. Predicting mortality in patients with
heart failure: a pragmatic approach. Heart. 2003 Jun;89(6):605-9. PubMed PMID:
12748212. PubMed Central PMCID: 1767685.
7. Kearney MT, Nolan J, Lee AJ, Brooksby PW, Prescott R, Shah AM, et al. A prognostic
index to predict long-term mortality in patients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure
1
stabilised on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors. European journal of heart failure.
2003 Aug;5(4):489-97. PubMed PMID: 12921810.
8. Lee DS, Austin PC, Rouleau JL, Liu PP, Naimark D, Tu JV. Predicting mortality among
patients hospitalized for heart failure: derivation and validation of a clinical model.
JAMA. 2003;290(19):2581-7.
9. Brophy JM, Dagenais GR, McSherry F, Williford W, Yusuf S. A multivariate model for
predicting mortality in patients with heart failure and systolic dysfunction. American
Journal of Medicine. 2004;116(5):300-4.
10.
Felker GM, Leimberger JD, Califf RM, Cuffe MS, Massie BM, Adams KF, Jr., et al.
Risk stratification after hospitalization for decompensated heart failure. J Card Fail. 2004
Dec;10(6):460-6. PubMed PMID: 15599835.
11.
Adlam D, Silcocks P, Sparrow N. Using BNP to develop a risk score for heart failure
in primary care. European heart journal. 2005 Jun;26(11):1086-93. PubMed PMID:
15769783.
12.
Fonarow GC, Adams KF, Jr., Abraham WT, Yancy CW, Boscardin WJ, Adhere
Scientific Advisory Committee SG, et al. Risk stratification for in-hospital mortality in
acutely decompensated heart failure: classification and regression tree analysis. JAMA.
2005 Feb 2;293(5):572-80. PubMed PMID: 15687312.
13.
Huynh BC, Rovner A, Rich MW. Long-term survival in elderly patients hospitalized
for heart failure: 14-year follow-up from a prospective randomized trial. Arch Intern Med.
2006 Sep 25;166(17):1892-8. PubMed PMID: 17000947.
14.
Krumholz HM, Wang Y, Mattera JA, Wang Y, Han LF, Ingber MJ, et al. An
administrative claims model suitable for profiling hospital performance based on 30-day
mortality rates among patients with heart failure. Circulation. 2006 Apr 4;113(13):1693701. PubMed PMID: 16549636.
2
15.
Levy WC, Mozaffarian D, Linker DT, Sutradhar SC, Anker SD, Cropp AB, et al. The
Seattle Heart Failure Model: prediction of survival in heart failure. Circulation.
2006;113(11):1424-33.
16.
Pocock SJ, Wang D, Pfeffer MA, Yusuf S, McMurray JJ, Swedberg KB, et al.
Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure. European heart
journal. 2006 Jan;27(1):65-75. PubMed PMID: 16219658.
17.
Tabak YP, Johannes RS, Silber JH. Using automated clinical data for risk adjustment:
development and validation of six disease-specific mortality predictive models for payfor-performance. Med Care. 2007 Aug;45(8):789-805. PubMed PMID: 17667314.
18.
Yamokoski LM, Hasselblad V, Moser DK, Binanay C, Conway GA, Glotzer JM, et
al. Prediction of Rehospitalization and Death in Severe Heart Failure by Physicians and
Nurses of the ESCAPE Trial. Journal of Cardiac Failure. 2007;13(1):8-13.
19.
Abraham WT, Fonarow GC, Albert NM, Stough WG, Gheorghiade M, Greenberg
BH, et al. Predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for heart failure:
insights from the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized
Patients with Heart Failure (OPTIMIZE-HF). Journal of the American College of
Cardiology. 2008 Jul 29;52(5):347-56. PubMed PMID: 18652942.
20.
Keenan PS, Normand SL, Lin Z, Drye EE, Bhat KR, Ross JS, et al. An administrative
claims measure suitable for profiling hospital performance on the basis of 30-day all-cause
readmission rates among patients with heart failure. Circulation Cardiovascular Quality &
Outcomes. 2008;1(1):29-37.
21.
O'Connor CM, Abraham WT, Albert NM, Clare R, Gattis Stough W, Gheorghiade M,
et al. Predictors of mortality after discharge in patients hospitalized with heart failure: an
analysis from the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized
3
Patients with Heart Failure (OPTIMIZE-HF). American heart journal. 2008
Oct;156(4):662-73. PubMed PMID: 18926148.
22.
Vazquez R, Bayes-Genis A, Cygankiewicz I, Pascual-Figal D, Grigorian-Shamagian
L, Pavon R, et al. The MUSIC Risk score: a simple method for predicting mortality in
ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure. European heart journal. 2009
May;30(9):1088-96. PubMed PMID: 19240065.
23.
Wedel H, McMurray JJ, Lindberg M, Wikstrand J, Cleland JG, Cornel JH, et al.
Predictors of fatal and non-fatal outcomes in the Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational
Trial in Heart Failure (CORONA): incremental value of apolipoprotein A-1, highsensitivity C-reactive peptide and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. European
journal of heart failure. 2009 Mar;11(3):281-91. PubMed PMID: 19168876. PubMed
Central PMCID: 2645061.
24.
Amarasingham R, Moore BJ, Tabak YP, Drazner MH, Clark CA, Zhang S, et al. An
automated model to identify heart failure patients at risk for 30-day readmission or death
using electronic medical record data. Medical Care. 2010;48(11):981-8.
25.
Dunlay SM, Gheorghiade M, Reid KJ, Allen LA, Chan PS, Hauptman PJ, et al.
Critical elements of clinical follow-up after hospital discharge for heart failure: Insights
from the EVEREST trial. European journal of heart failure. 2010;12(4):367-74.
26.
Hammill BG, Curtis LH, Fonarow GC, Heidenreich PA, Yancy CW, Peterson ED, et
al. Incremental value of clinical data beyond claims data in predicting 30-day outcomes
after heart failure hospitalization. Circulation Cardiovascular quality and outcomes. 2010
Jan 1;4(1):60-7. PubMed PMID: 21139093. Epub 2010/12/09. eng.
27.
Lee DS, Schull MJ, Alter DA, Austin PC, Laupacis A, Chong A, et al. Early deaths in
patients with heart failure discharged from the emergency department: a population-based
analysis. Circulation Heart failure. 2010 Mar;3(2):228-35. PubMed PMID: 20107191.
4
28.
O'Connor CM, Hasselblad V, Mehta RH, Tasissa G, Califf RM, Fiuzat M, et al.
Triage after hospitalization with advanced heart failure: the ESCAPE (Evaluation Study of
Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness) risk model
and discharge score. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 2010 Mar
2;55(9):872-8. PubMed PMID: 20185037.
29.
Peterson PN, Rumsfeld JS, Liang L, Albert NM, Hernandez AF, Peterson ED, et al. A
validated risk score for in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure from the
American Heart Association get with the guidelines program. Circulation Cardiovascular
quality and outcomes. 2010 Jan;3(1):25-32. PubMed PMID: 20123668.
30.
Hsich E, Gorodeski EZ, Blackstone EH, Ishwaran H, Lauer MS. Identifying
important risk factors for survival in patient with systolic heart failure using random
survival forests. Circulation Cardiovascular quality and outcomes. 2011 Jan 1;4(1):39-45.
PubMed PMID: 21098782.
31.
Komajda M, Carson PE, Hetzel S, McKelvie R, McMurray J, Ptaszynska A, et al.
Factors associated with outcome in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: findings
from the Irbesartan in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction Study (IPRESERVE). Circulation Heart failure. 2011 Jan;4(1):27-35. PubMed PMID: 21068341.
32.
Manzano L, Babalis D, Roughton M, Shibata M, Anker SD, Ghio S, et al. Predictors
of clinical outcomes in elderly patients with heart failure. European journal of heart
failure. 2011 May;13(5):528-36. PubMed PMID: 21454299.
33.
Stukenborg GJ. Hospital mortality risk adjustment for heart failure patients using
present on admission diagnoses: Improved classification and calibration. Medical Care.
2011;49(8):744-51.
34.
Subramanian D, Subramanian V, Deswal A, Mann DL. New predictive models of
heart failure mortality using time-series measurements and ensemble models. Circulation
5
Heart failure. 2011 Jul;4(4):456-62. PubMed PMID: 21562057. PubMed Central PMCID:
3147114. Epub 2011/05/13. eng.
35.
Van Spall HG, Atzema C, Schull MJ, Newton GE, Mak S, Chong A, et al. Prediction
of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification. PLoS One.
2011;6(8):e23065. PubMed PMID: 21853068. PubMed Central PMCID: 3154275.
36.
Watson AJ, O'Rourke J, Jethwani K, Cami A, Stern TA, Kvedar JC, et al. Linking
Electronic Health Record-Extracted Psychosocial Data in Real-Time to Risk of
Readmission for Heart Failure. Psychosomatics. 2011;52(4):319-27.
37.
Zhang J, Goode KM, Rigby A, Balk AH, Cleland JG. Identifying patients at risk of
death or hospitalisation due to worsening heart failure using decision tree analysis:
Evidence from the Trans-European Network-Home-Care Management System (TENHMS) Study. International journal of cardiology. 2011 Jul 2. PubMed PMID: 21726908.
38.
Au AG, McAlister FA, Bakal JA, Ezekowitz J, Kaul P, van Walraven C. Predicting
the risk of unplanned readmission or death within 30 days of discharge after a heart failure
hospitalization. American heart journal. 2012 Sep;164(3):365-72. PubMed PMID:
22980303.
39.
Bayes-Genis A, De M, Galan A, Sanz H, Urrutia A, Cabanes R, et al. Combined use
of high-sensitivity ST2 and NTproBNP to improve the prediction of death in heart failure.
European journal of heart failure. 2012;14(1):32-8.
40.
Bilchick KC, Stukenborg GJ, Kamath S, Cheng A. Prediction of mortality in clinical
practice for Medicare patients undergoing defibrillator implantation for primary
prevention of sudden cardiac death. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 2012
Oct 23;60(17):1647-55. PubMed PMID: 23021331. PubMed Central PMCID: 3677038.
6
41.
Lee DS, Stitt A, Austin PC, Stukel TA, Schull MJ, Chong A, et al. Prediction of heart
failure mortality in emergent care: a cohort study. Ann Intern Med. 2012 Jun
5;156(11):767-75, W-261, W-2. PubMed PMID: 22665814.
42.
O'Connor CM, Whellan DJ, Wojdyla D, Leifer E, Clare RM, Ellis SJ, et al. Factors
related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic
dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model. Circulation Heart failure.
2012;5(1):63-71.
43.
Pocock SJ, Ariti CA, McMurray JJ, Maggioni A, Kober L, Squire IB, et al. Predicting
survival in heart failure: a risk score based on 39 372 patients from 30 studies. European
heart journal. 2012 May;34(19):1404-13. PubMed PMID: 23095984.
44.
Postmus D, van Veldhuisen DJ, Jaarsma T, Luttik ML, Lassus J, Mebazaa A, et al.
The COACH risk engine: a multistate model for predicting survival and hospitalization in
patients with heart failure. European journal of heart failure. 2012 Feb;14(2):168-75.
PubMed PMID: 22158778.
45.
Wang L, Porter B, Maynard C, Bryson C, Sun H, Lowy E, et al. Predicting risk of
hospitalization or death among patients with heart failure in the veterans health
administration. The American journal of cardiology. 2012 Nov 1;110(9):1342-9. PubMed
PMID: 22819429.
46.
Barlera S, Tavazzi L, Franzosi MG, Marchioli R, Raimondi E, Masson S, et al.
Predictors of mortality in 6975 patients with chronic heart failure in the Gruppo Italiano
per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure trial: proposal for
a nomogram. Circulation Heart failure. 2013 Jan;6(1):31-9. PubMed PMID: 23152490.
47.
Cowie MR, Sarkar S, Koehler J, Whellan DJ, Crossley GH, Tang WH, et al.
Development and validation of an integrated diagnostic algorithm derived from
parameters monitored in implantable devices for identifying patients at risk for heart
7
failure hospitalization in an ambulatory setting. European heart journal. 2013
Aug;34(31):2472-80. PubMed PMID: 23513212. PubMed Central PMCID: 3743068.
48.
Senni M, Parrella P, De Maria R, Cottini C, Bohm M, Ponikowski P, et al. Predicting
heart failure outcome from cardiac and comorbid conditions: the 3C-HF score.
International journal of cardiology. 2013 Feb 20;163(2):206-11. PubMed PMID:
22130225.
8