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Supplement. Assessment of landscape matrix. This assessment provides further information
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about future land-use changes, considering the characteristics of the landscape matrix where
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future land-use changes are projected to occur. For this, we separated between landscape
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matrices that have low vs. high human presence. Landscape matrices with high human presence
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are defined as 100-km2 areas with greater than 50% cover of human land-uses in 2001, whereas
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landscape matrices with low human presence are defined as those with less than 50% cover of
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human land uses in 2001. These results are shown in form of tables (Table 1) and maps (Figures
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1 and 2).
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Table 1. Extent of Future Land-use Changes in Relationship with Landscape Matrix
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Characteristics
In landscape matrix with In landscape matrix with
Type of land-use change by Total area
scenario
<50% cover of human
≥50% cover of human
land-uses (million ha)
land-uses (million ha)
(million ha)
Business As Usual
Crop abandonment
16.174
4.549
11.625
Pasture abandonment
22.509
11.578
10.931
Urban expansion
15.816
13.180
2.637
Crop expansion
14.396
11.668
2.728
Pasture expansion
11.803
9.898
1.905
Crop abandonment
29.758
6.515
23.243
Pasture abandonment
23.215
11.527
11.688
Forest Incentives
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Urban expansion
16.342
13.597
2.745
Crop expansion
13.883
11.203
2.680
Pasture expansion
11.936
10.185
1.751
Crop abandonment
17.140
4.814
12.326
Pasture abandonment
24.302
12.292
12.010
Urban expansion
15.449
12.796
2.654
Crop expansion
9.982
8.436
1.546
Pasture expansion
7.717
6.678
1.039
Crop abandonment
16.508
4.524
11.985
Pasture abandonment
23.622
12.075
11.547
Urban expansion
6.781
5.345
1.435
Crop expansion
14.369
11.643
2.726
Pasture expansion
11.495
9.635
1.860
Crop abandonment
11.073
3.414
7.658
Pasture abandonment
18.512
9.854
8.658
Urban expansion
14.389
12.025
2.364
Crop expansion
29.887
23.432
6.455
9.136
7.734
1.402
Native Habitat
Urban Containment
High Crop Demand
Pasture expansion
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Figure 1: Distribution of land-use expansion versus land abandonment across the conterminous
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U.S. within areas of high human presence, under different scenarios of future land-use change
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(Figure 1a). The bottom figure shows the main land-use change driver of land-use expansion and
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land abandonment respectively, calculated at the pixel level (Figure 1b). Only pixels with greater
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than 10% cover of total land-use expansion and/or abandonment are shown.
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Figure 2: Distribution of land-use expansion versus land abandonment across the conterminous
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U.S. within areas of low human presence, under different scenarios of future land-use change
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(Figure 2a). The bottom figure shows the main land-use change driver of land-use expansion and
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land abandonment respectively, calculated at the pixel level (Figure 2b). Only pixels with greater
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than 10% cover of total land-use expansion and/or abandonment are shown.
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