L 11 Gene Frequency vs Natural Selection A

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Biology 105 – Human Biology
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MC 2040 / 1432 Napa
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Instructor:
Student Author Name: Inna Yorphacee
RIDDELL
RIDDELL
Team Members Names:
Notta Shance
Yurasama Hart
Bro Kenbrane
Student Author ID #: 1 2 3 4 5 8 9 7
Team Members ID #s:
15899415
25494547
151XXX I forgot the rest
Lab Assignment #: 11
Team Name: Almost AB / FAB’s
Lab Assignment Title: Natural Selection
Date: 150212
Background:
§ Organisms with traits more suited to their environments are more likely to survive than those
with different features.
§ Knowing that certain traits suit certain environments, the color of the paper dot will affect its
survival depending on the environment.
§ Different environments include different predators that will apply new traits like color or size.
§ Reece, J., Wasserman, S., Urry, L., Minorsky, P., Cain, M., & Jackson, R. (2014). The
Evolutionary History of Biological Diversity. In Campbell Biology (10th ed., pp. 467-478).
Boston: Pearson.
Purpose / Objective(s):
§ Test the natural selection theory using paper dots in various environments with several
adapting predators; analyze the data gathered from the different environments; and then graph
and discuss the results of the collected data.
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§ Observe the survival rate of paper dots in the green environment. The color of the
surroundings in the green environment helped these colored dots live and adapt to their
environment. Green dots were hard to see in the first environment because the eye notices dots
that stuck out and caught the eye of the predator such as Light Blue, Lime Green, and Green.
Green was the best match to its environment but was picked off due to our “Scatter Method”
(See Figure #1) wherein the dots were dropped randomly across the environment instead of
strategic placing.
§ Observe the survival rate of paper dots in Environment 2. It was not in the favor of Tiffany
Blue which was severely impacted and diminished to nearly half its population. The only dots
that appeared successful in this environment was Green, White, Red, and Light Blue. These
species seemed to adapt well to their surrounding and became less visible to the predators’ eye
which allowed them to live and produce more offspring than other species.
Hypothesis (ese):
§ Purple dots in Environment 2 will have a higher chance of survival.
§ The dots most similar in color to their environments will be more camouflaged from
predators, therefore more will survive than other colored dots.
Specimen(s):
§ The key components for this experiment will be different colored dots to represent different
specimens within a population, different patterned maps to simulate different environments, and
student predators with different capabilities to observe natural selection.
§ We observed several rounds of predation effects on several different specimens within a
population in two different environments, while measuring specimen survival rate.
Materials:
§ Various environment maps, an assortment of colored paper dots, jars, plastic cups, red tape,
stopwatch.
§ Professor timed predators at assigned environments.
§ Students counted out 200 colored paper dots as their species, then placed 50 in environment.
§ Students entered their data via Microsoft Excel template.
Procedures:
§ 40 dots of different colors per person.
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Biology 105 – Human Biology
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55244 / 61816 4 Units
67033 4 Units
UVC1, 3 and 7 St. Helena.
MC 2040 / 1432 Napa
Days / Time :
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T 8:00 AM – 10:50 AM LEC LAB
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§ 20 dots first round.
§ Between each generation the survivors are paired up and produce 2 offspring to be included
into the population count of the next generation.
§ First background is a green background (See Figure #1)
§ First round: One predator with one claw
§ Second round: One predator with two claws
§ Switch background (See Figure #2)
§ Third round: Two predators, two claws each
§ Fourth round: Two predators, two claws, and flashing lights
§ Fifth round: Natural disaster
Results:
§ Overall, all species saw a significant forecasted increase in population except for Tiffany
Blue, which is calculated to stay relatively stagnant. (See Table 1: Population Forecast to
Generation 11)
§ The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was observed to decrease in certain generation
comparisons. All species were forecasted to increase their CAGR ranging from 4-10% when
comparing Gen 12 and Gen 1. (See Table 2: Experiment and Forecasted Compound Annual
Growth Rate vs. Generation Comparisons)
§ Comparing the percent population change between generations show similar results to
CAGR. All species saw increases in percent population change, which ranged from 55-229%.
(See Table 3: Percent Population Change vs. Generation Sets using Experiment and Forecasted
Populations)
§ Most deaths of Light Blue occurred in the first environment.
§ Least deaths of Red occurred in the first environment.
§ Tiffany Blue, very similar to Light Blue in appearance, suffered 2.6 times as many total
deaths compared to Light Blue (42 vs. 16) in Environment 2. (See Table 5: Number of Deaths
per Generation vs. Environment Type)
§ Purple experienced a similar distribution of deaths across environments: 55% in the original
and 45% in Environment 2. (See Table 6: Number of Deaths vs. Environments)
§ Forecasting the number of deaths to Generation 12 shows Tiffany Blue with the highest
number of deaths. Species with the lowest number of deaths were the Light Blue and Yellow.
(See Table 7: Number of Deaths vs. Generations)
§ The graphs of population vs. generations were used to determine the forecasted growth using
a logarithmic trend line. (See Table 8: Individual Forecasts with logarithmic equations)
§ Diagram 1 and 2 depict the most effective way of creating color contrast using a color wheel.
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Biology 105 – Human Biology
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55244 / 61816 4 Units
67033 4 Units
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§ The summary table below shows the carrying capacity being reached by several species by
the third generation. (See Summary Table: Population vs. Generations and Environments)
§ Light Blue was the most adapted to survive in Environment 2.
Summary Table:
Population vs.
Generations and
Environments
Analysis / Discussion:
§ The outcome of purple appeared to contradict our first hypothesis by experiencing a similar
number of deaths between both environments. However, the light blue species was observed to
be highly suited for Environment 2.
§ Environment 1 was predominantly green, providing an excellent contrast for Blue and Purple,
both experiencing the highest numbers of deaths before environmental change.
§ Yellow and Red resulted in the fewest deaths in Environment 1, supporting our second
hypothesis.
§ In the second environment, Tiffany Blue resulted in the highest number of deaths closely
followed by Lime Green. Both groups had nearly the same percentage of predator caused deaths
(PCD) (67% vs 69%). The Light Blue species suffered 88% PCD, greater than any other group.
This data contradicts our second hypothesis due to the similar losses from predators despite the
camouflage profile favoring the Blue groups.
§ Due to the contradicting results from the experiment there may be other factors besides color
which affect the survival of colored dots.
§ For the population and death forecasts to be accurate the five Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium
requirements must be met. This is extremely unlikely due to the number of changes in
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environment, and predatory and natural selection pressures observed in each of the first six
generations. The probability for no change to occur in the next six generations is extremely
unlikely and renders our forecast unreliable.
Conclusions / Further Considerations:
§ Answer the question, “so what, now, what?”
After completing and analyzing the data, evidence would suggest that in our given
environment, “placement” of the prey had a greater impact on the likelihood of survival as
opposed to the “color” of the specimen. While intuitively it may have seemed as if specimen
“color” would help to better camouflage the prey from the predator, it should be noted that
staying out of reach of the predator is a far better option. While our hypothesis was not incorrect,
as “color” did play a partial role in the success of the prey, the hypothesis failed to take into
account that “shorter” predators could not reach the prey furthest away. Staying out of reach is
after all one of the mechanisms of defense that many animals in the wild use to their advantage.
Consider, for example, tree-dwelling monkeys, various birds, and sloths; while camouflage may
reduce the possibility of getting eaten, staying out of reach reduces that chance to zero. This
evidence would then suggest that there is no one factor that affects whether or not a species will
survive.
Recall the natural selection experiment conducted by Bernard Kettlewell and his
peppered moths. Kettlewell noted that white peppered moths had a greater likelihood of survival
compared to black peppered moths when placed against the white bark of birch untarnished by
industrial soot. However, in areas with heavy charcoal production, the bark of the birch were
often covered in black soot, and in these areas Kettlewell noted that the black moths were more
likely to survive. While the experiment sounds intuitive, reevaluation of Kettlewell’s experiment
revealed a flaw - a flaw that even in our own experiment we had not considered. This flaw was
that of bias of the experimenter and the subjects and in an attempt to recreate it, the data was not
reproducible. It is likely that if we performed this experiment a second time, the results would
vary greatly.
§ What does this understanding provide to us that allows us to continue / expand our thinking?
Understanding that placement of the prey has a lot to do with its survival, this can predict
the outcome of many species in our environment. Although the human factor remains uncertain
and erratic, the initial factors that are predictable like the hunting patterns of the predator will
help the prey survive longer. Soon the prey will pick up on the habits of the predator and then he
would have to think of new methods to catch his prey.
§ What further questions do you have with this level understanding?
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Biology 105 – Human Biology
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Upon further analysis of the results of this experiment, would intuition of color choice be
best suited for camouflage or would a neutral color hide well amongst the environment? In
addition, does the type of predator hunting the prey affect the lifespan of the species differently?
§ What other information / research / experiment does this data suggest that we do?
It may be helpful in future experiments to log data regarding the placement of specific
colors and predator(s) positioning compared to the mat. In our experiment the predator(s) stood
at the same position relative to the orientation of the mat, this may have been advantageous to
dots which were further away from the predators.
Comparing only the effects of colors by placing them on the same spots of the mat may
help further understand the role that positioning plays in survival.
ATTACHMENTS
Experimental Design – Subjects, Specimens, Materials and Methods Details
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Figure # 1:
Environment
1, Green
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Biology 105 – Human Biology
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Figure # 2:
Environment
2, Halloween
Using the
‘Sprinkle
Method’ to
Disperse our
Colored Dots
Detailed / Formal / Conclusive Results, Tables, Charts, Comparative Photos and
Illustrations
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Table 1:
Population
Forecast to
Generation 12
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Table 2:
Experiment and
Forecasted
Compound
Annual Growth
Rate vs.
Generation
Comparisons
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Table 3:
Percent
Population
Change vs.
Generation
using
Experiment and
Forecasted
Populations
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Table 4:
Species
Populations vs.
Generations in
Two Different
Environments
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Table 5:
Number of
Deaths per
Generation vs.
Environment
Type
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Table 6:
Number of
Deaths vs.
Environments
using
Experiment Data
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Table 7:
Number of
Deaths Forecast
to Generation 11
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Table 8:
Individual
Forecasts with
logarithmic
equations
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Diagram 1:
Color Wheel
Contrast
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Diagram 2:
Color Contrast
Example
In-Process Drawings / Diagrams / Illustrations / Photos / Planning / Intermediate Steps:
Figure # 3: Assortment of Colored Paper Dots Representing Different
Species Beginning Experiment
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In-Process Notes / Observations / Planning:
Figure # 4: Notes of Predator Simulations
and Results
Figure # 5: General Notes of Overview of
Natural Selection Lab
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Raw Data / Original Measurements:
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Raw Data
#1
Raw Data
#2
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Raw Data
#3
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Raw Data
#4
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Raw Data
#5
References / Literature Cited:
1. Arditi, A. (n.d.). Effective color contrast: Designing for people with partial sight and
color deficiencies. Retrieved from
http://www.lighthouse.org/accessibility/design/accessible-print-design/effective-colorcontrast.
❏ Accessed on Feb. 10th, 2015 to determine effective color contrasting patterns.
(Diagrams 1: Color Wheel Contrast and Diagram 2:Color Contrast Example)
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