Supporting Information
Additional Supporting Information may be found in the online version of this article:
Appendix S1 {Correlation of WORLDCLIM bioclimatic variables }
Table S1 {Pearson-product correlation matrix of bioclimatic variables* for UK and Ireland}
Appendix S2 {Number of records per species}
Table S2 {Number of records per species for each time period following the removal of spatial autocorrelation, as used in linear
mixed models. The total number of records for each species was used to predict climatic suitability models in Maxent }
Appendix S3 { Model summaries and climatic suitability maps }
Table S3 { Minimal model summary for each species }
Fig S1 { Climatic suitability maps predicted by Maxent models with raw species presence data }
Appendix S1. Correlation of WORLDCLIM bioclimatic variables
Table S1. Pearson-product correlation matrix of bioclimatic variables* for UK and Ireland, calculated using monthly data for MarOct, along with altitude and slope.
Bio1
Bio2
Bio3
Bio4
Bio5
Bio6
Bio7
Bio12
Bio13
Bio14
Bio15
altitude
slope
Bio1
1.00
0.34
0.09
0.15
0.89
0.86
0.34
-0.63
-0.68
-0.63
-0.48
-0.73
-0.53
Bio2
Bio3
Bio4
Bio5
Bio6
Bio7
0.34
0.09
0.15
0.89
0.86
0.34
1.00
0.50
0.41
0.66
-0.04
0.80
0.50
1.00
-0.56
0.05
0.21
-0.12
0.41
-0.56
1.00
0.51
-0.33
0.86
0.66
0.05
0.51
1.00
0.54
0.73
-0.04
0.21
-0.33
0.54
1.00
-0.18
0.80
-0.12
0.86
0.73
-0.18
1.00
-0.56
-0.16
-0.30
-0.73
-0.40
-0.53
-0.53
-0.10
-0.32
-0.77
-0.45
-0.53
-0.56
-0.26
-0.19
-0.69
-0.43
-0.45
-0.71
-0.16
-0.46
-0.70
-0.15
-0.70
-0.14
-0.28
0.23
-0.55
-0.83
0.04
-0.28
-0.24
0.05
-0.46
-0.48
-0.15
-0.63
-0.68
-0.63
-0.48
-0.73
-0.53
-0.56
-0.53
-0.56
-0.71
-0.14
-0.28
-0.16
-0.10
-0.26
-0.16
-0.28
-0.24
-0.30
-0.32
-0.19
-0.46
0.23
0.05
-0.73
-0.77
-0.69
-0.70
-0.55
-0.46
-0.40
-0.45
-0.43
-0.15
-0.83
-0.48
-0.53
-0.53
-0.45
-0.70
0.04
-0.15
1.00
0.97
0.98
0.78
0.56
0.56
0.97
1.00
0.91
0.74
0.53
0.53
0.98
0.91
1.00
0.75
0.61
0.60
0.78
0.74
0.75
1.00
0.19
0.36
0.56
0.53
0.61
0.19
1.00
0.58
0.56
0.53
0.60
0.36
0.58
1.00
Bio12
Bio13
Bio14
Bio15
altitude
slope
*Bio1 = Annual Mean Temperature
Bio2 = Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
Bio3 = Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100)
Bio4 = Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100)
Bio5 = Max Temperature of Warmest Month
Bio6 = Min Temperature of Coldest Month
Bio7 = Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6)
Bio12 = Annual Precipitation
Bio13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month
Bio14 = Precipitation of Driest Month
Bio15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
Appendix S2. Number of records per species.
Table S2. Number of records per species modelled for each time period, following the
removal of spatial autocorrelation. The total number of records for each species was
used to predict climatic suitability models in Maxent .
Species
Time period
Pre1960
Total
1960-80
1981-12
B. barbutellus
51
114
93
258
B. campestris
65
120
161
346
B. distinguendus
107
50
46
203
B. humilis
224
149
600
973
B. monticola
28
59
135
222
B. muscorum
78
85
212
375
B. ruderarius
90
79
151
320
B. ruderatus
49
19
47
115
B. rupestris
74
43
144
261
B. soroeensis
33
23
85
141
B. sylvarum
99
64
48
211
B. vestalis
33
310
410
753
Appendix S3. Model summaries and Maxent climatic suitability maps.
Table S3. Minimal model summary for each species where presence/absence per
10km square in the UK is fitted as the response variable in a linear mixed effects
model. Climatic suitability (C), distance to coast (D) and time period (T1: pre1960, T2:
1960-80 and T3: 1981-12) are fitted as fixed factors and 10km square ID is considered
a random factor. The number of recorders per 10km square for each time period was
also fitted as a random factor to account for possible variation in recorder effort.
Species
Fixed
effects
Estimate
S. E
z-value
P
AIC
LogLiklihood
B. barbutellus
T2
1.1
0.235
4.723
2.32e-6*
T3
0.391
0.238
1.642
0.1006
T2
-9.019
2.154
-4.186
2.84e-5*
T3
2.517
1.629
1.55
0.122
C
-0.538
2.234
-0.241
0.81
D
-1.522
3.569
-0.427
0.669
T2:C
17.369
4.354
3.99
6.62e-5*
T3:C
-2.634
3.09
-0.853
0.394
T2:D
19.728
6.909
2.855
0.004*
T3:D
-3.404
4.99
-0.682
0.495
C:D
2.53
6.41
0.395
0.693
T2:C:D
-34.477
13.650
-2.526
0.12
T3:C:D
7.398
9.112
0.812
0.417
792.3
-391.1
664.7
-318.4
B. campestris
B. distinguendus
T2
-10.954
1.944
-5.634
1.76e-8*
T3
-15.637
2.370
-6.597
4.19e11*
C
-14.227
2.816
-5.052
4.38e-7*
D
-8.003
4.027
-1.988
0.047*
T2:C
17.626
3.416
5.160
2.47e-7*
T3:C
27.857
4.092
6.808
9.93e-12*
T2:D
8.361
5.443
1.536
0.125
T3:D
19.322
7.866
2.457
0.014*
C:D
15.550
7.524
2.067
0.039*
T2:C:D
-13.453
10.066
-1.336
0.181
T3:C:D
-47.602
15.375
-3.096
0.002*
T2
1.035
1.756
0.589
0.556
T3
-5.493
1.679
-3.271
0.001*
C
-5.701
2.355
-2.421
0.016*
D
-2.921
3.013
-0.969
0.332
T2:C
-2.714
3.301
-0.822
0.411
T3:C
9.457
3.139
3.013
0.003*
T2:D
-5.932
4.345
-1.365
0.172
T3:D
7.810
4.160
1.877
0.061
C:D
4.890
5.524
0.885
0.376
T2:C:D
12.010
7.905
1.519
0.129
T3:C:D
-13.831
7.580
-1.825
0.068
0.285
0.486
0.587
0.557
539.47
-255.73
703.71
-337.85
B. humilis
B. monticola
T2
664.74
-323.37
T3
2.815
0.478
5.889
3.89e-9*
C
0.88
0.706
1.25
0.213
D
0.193
1.166
0.165
0.869
T2:D
2.168
1.463
1.482
0.138
T3:D
-1.617
1.445
-1.119
0.263
T2
-0.17
0.348
-0.487
0.626
T3
2.044
0.328
6.218
5.02e-10*
B. muscorum
D
1.359
0.73
1.861
1130.75
-557.37
925.62
-448.81
381.02
-182.51
0.06274
T2:D
-0.151
1.031
-0.147
0.883
T3:D
-2.973
0.980
-3.032
0.002*
T2
-6.583
1.501
-4.385
1.16e-5*
T3
-9.192
1.437
-6.394
1.61e-10*
C
-9.252
2.147
-4.310
1.64e-5*
D
-7.010
2.913
-2.406
0.016*
T2:C
11.939
2.937
4.065
4.79e-5*
T3:C
17.640
2.867
6.152
7.64e-10*
T2:D
9.332
4.26
2.191
0.029
T3:D
15.515
3.964
3.914
9.06e-5*
C:D
12.75
5.687
2.242
0.025
T2:C:D
-16.950
7.999
-2.119
0.034
T3:C:D
-28.158
7.590
-3.710
0.0002*
-5.417
1.662
-3.259
0.001*
B. ruderarius
B. ruderatus
T2
T3
-7.361
1.635
-4.502
6.74e-6*
C
-7.195
2.173
-3.311
0.001*
T2:C
7.661
3.185
2.406
0.016*
T3:C
13.939
3.108
4.485
7.29e-6*
T2
-2.7
0.746
-3.619
2.96e-4*
T3
-3.121
0.813
-3.841
1.23e-4*
C
-4.056
0.924
-4.389
1.14e-5*
D
-0.668
0.834
-0.801
0.423
T2:C
8.412
1.292
6.514
7.33e-11*
T3:C
3.21
1.369
2.345
0.019*
T2:D
-0.238
1.131
-0.210
0.834
T3:D
2.652
1.208
2.197
0.028*
T2
-2.658
1.107
-2.401
0.016*
T3
-0.015
0.991
-0.015
0.988
C
-4.948
1.616
-3.062
0.002*
D
3.863
1.286
3.004
0.003*
T2:C
5.518
2.216
2.49
0.013*
T3:C
8.258
2.117
3.9
9.61e-5*
T2:D
-1.157
1.768
-0.654
0.513
T3:D
-9.429
1.754
-5.376
7.62e-8*
-2.941
0.816
-3.602
3.15e-4*
B. rupestris
780.86
-385.43
379.32
-178.66
717.74
-350.87
B. soroeensis
B. sylvarum
T2
T3
-4.511
0.931
-4.845
1.26e-6*
C
-3.144
1.064
-2.955
0.003*
T2:C
4.085
1.513
2.7
0.007*
T3:C
6.019
1.677
3.589
3.32e-4*
T2
-1.924
0.989
-1.946
0.05*
T3
4.232
0.977
4.332
1.48e-5*
C
-0.288
1.501
-0.192
0.847
T2:C
6.609
1.863
3.547
3.89e-04*
T3:C
-1.257
1.856
-0.677
0.498
B. vestalis
977.72
-480.86