Module 5 - Horizontal Links and Moves 5.2 The Diversification Game The ‘conglomerate’ corporate strategy is characterised by diversification into new and unrelated business. Diversification is both a direction and a method. It is a direction because the firm expands along particular horizontal lines and a method because the firm exploits these opportunities through internal organisation rather than through agreements with other firms. 5.2.1 Horizontal Directions in the Diversification Game Diversification game seen from firm 3’s perspective: Market Helmets Trousers Jackets Handbags Umbrellas 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Motor cycle Motor cycle Motor cycle Accessories Accessories Technology Carbon-fire Leather Leather Leather Plastics/metals The question is how Firm 3 should choose. Three rules which may help: Rule 1: Competitive advantage: Each player must seek competitive advantage over the other. In our simple game we assume particular moves may enhance competitive advantage in one of two ways; the move must help shift at least one demand curve or one cost curve in a way that adds value to the firms activity. Diversified firms do not compete; only their individual business units do. If diversification is to have benefits it must be in terms of a positive impact of the ability of at least one of its businesses to compete in the market place. Rule 2: Only one move at a time: It is expensive to diversify at all levels Rule 3: Fair play: Here fair play is interpreted to mean that a particular move does not allow a firm to achieve a dominant position that would allow them to exercise monopoly control over customer or suppliers. Each move has different implication for competitive advantage. Firm 3 merging or acquiring firm 8 – the specialisation shown below The value chain and gains from specialisation: sales force trucks Distribution D marketing development market research advertisement Marketing M plant equipment labour force Production P research development R&D Firm 3 R&D mergers with... Firm 8 Partial links between the value chains in the case of both helmet and handbag moves: D M D M D M D M P R&D P R&D P R&D P R&D Firm 3 plus Firm 6 The MC market Firm 3 plus Firm 9 Leather technology = Marketing and distribution linkages = Technological linkages Good fits between both value chains in the case of jackets to trousers: D M D M P R&D P R&D Firm 3 plus Firm 7 Leather MC garments Leather technology The MC market Strong linkages throughout the value chain in the case of specialisation: D M D M P R&D P R&D Firm 3 plus Firm 8 Leather MC jackets Leather technology The MC market Jackets to umbrellas a conglomerate type move generate no real linkages: D M D M P R&D P R&D Firm 3 plus Firm 10 Jackets and umbrellas 5.2.2 Preferred Moves in the Diversification Game What to prefer? The firm should specialise as far as possible if it is seeking competitive advantage. There are four main reasons for this: 1. Resource effects. Specialise if you can; if you have to diversify, stay as close to home as possible and try to avoid unrelated diversification as long as related alternative exists. 2. Market power considerations. If the firm is seeking more control over its market, the specialisation option is clearly the most direct and powerful route to achieve this. 3. Allergic reactions. Firms can display an adverse reaction to new activities that are unrelated or loosely related to its existing competencies. Failure of synergy in corporate expansion, Michael Porter - it is often what firm knows rather than what they do not know that can be the problem. 4. Rivals’ valuation. For example firm 4 value firm ten more than our firm 3. 5.2.3 Methods of Expansion in the Diversification Game Why should the firm choose expansion by diversification as a method of expansion opportunities rather than making some agreements with the firms to share resources? Market power is one example. You may not trust your partner. Resource effects may be achieved by co-operation as well as by diversification. The reason why firms diversify in some case is the transaction cost associated by co-operation. The opportunity cost is also a reason for going the conglomerate way. 5.3 Why Diversify? 5.3.1 Market Power There are many ways that power could be exercised by diversification, but each tends to come down to the increased share of the firm in particular markets. How diversification can aid control of markets and technologies: The MC market link Helmets D M Trousers D M Jackets D M Handbags D M P R&D P R&D P R&D P R&D Leather technology link 5.3.2 Synergy If resources can be shared across value chains for different businesses they may give rise to cost savings described as synergy in strategic management and economics. If the businesses are effectively the same these resource affects are described as economies of scale. There can be two sources of gains in such cases: Indivisibilities – Resources tend to come in lumps – a factory, a truck, a machine, an economist, etc. If you where to cut each of these resources in two physically, they would not be able to do their job any more. The fuller the use that can be made of these indivisible lumps, the lower will the cost to the firm of using these resources. Specialisation – Expansion of the firm may permit increased specialisation of resources which in turn can lead to enhanced value for the combined firm. Economics have traditionally focused at the level of individual products –like a jacket or a helmet – and looked at cost and price considerations in the respective cases. Strategic management focuses instead at the level of the individual firm and looks at the resource questions that matter at this level. The bigger and the more diversified the firm, the less likely that economies from sharing tangible resources such as plant and equipment are going to be important at the level of corporate strategy, and the more likely that intangible resources such as managerial capabilities are going to be of relevance. 5.3.3 User Gains Diversification can also help generate competitive advantage for the diversifier by providing benefits for the user. These gains tend to be reflected in one of two main ways: Cost advantage: e.g. one stop shopping with the convenience of one supplier of M/C goods to retailers rather than three. 5.3.4 Differentiation: e.g. enhanced compatibility of products, with M/C jackets, trousers and helmets in matching styles Internal Markets The diversified firm is in a position to create internal markets such as internal labour markets, internal markets for R&D know-how or know-how in general, and so on. The form of transaction cost depends on the case in point, but the advantages of internal markets over external markets are generally regarded as having tree major sources: Asymmetric information – managers inside the firm will generally have access to more and better information about the potential trade than outside individuals and organisations. Control of opportunistic behaviour is easier from the inside Divisionalisation gains - The growth of the diversified firm has been seen by some as creating possible efficiency gains in terms of organisational structure. Instead of organising the firm around functions in what has been termed a Unitary form or U-form structure, the firm could now be organised around divisions in a Multi-divisional or M-form structure. The major advantages that M-form structures have been identified as having over the U structures for the large diversified firm include: o The creation of profit centres to aid assessment and comparison of performance o Putting together resources that have the most need to co-ordinate their activities into natural units o The separation of strategy formulation management responsibilities at headquarters level in the firm from the functional responsibilities at divisional level The disadvantages in substituting external markets with internal markets, especially in terms of principal-agent problems in which the shareholders are the principal and management are the agents: Opaque performance – A problem with creating an internal market is that it reduces the transparency of performance since the performance of divisions may be concealed within consolidated accounts at he level of the firm Lock-in – One of the great virtues of the market mechanism is its flexibility. Opportunity cost considerations mean that assets have negative value in their present use, the market mechanism provides very effective devices for reallocating assets to their best uses. Internal markets can be stickier. For instance, one product can be dependent on the other, otherwise it won’t be profitable. ‘Not invented here’ syndrome – Divisions may place more value on ideas developed by themselves and less on ideas developed elsewhere, even if these ideas have been developed by other divisions within the same company. One of the most widely considered markets in the context of the diversified firm has been the internal capital market. By throwing corporate boundaries around the various businesses operated by the conglomerate, it was argued that this would allow the firm to avoid the transaction costs associated with the blunter and less sensitive instrument of the external capital market, these firms remained independent, smaller and more specialised. Conglomerate could exploit advantages in terms of information, control and divisionalisation from treating the firm as a mini-capital market. If it works well for conglomerates it work even better for related diversification. The internal capital market justification for the conglomerate is a justification of the conglomerate as a method. Essentially it says that in certain circumstances internal markets are more efficient than external markets, so if you have to choose between the conglomerate and a series of independent firms, you might be better of with a conglomerate. Diversification and creation of internal markets: Helmets D M P R&D Jackets D M Handbags D M P R&D P R&D The related diversifier can exploit a variety of linkages in its internal markets The conglomerate strategy exploits only financial linkages in its internal market DIV 1 DIV 2 DIV 3 Organisational structure for the related diversifier to help create internal capital markets Similar (divisionalised) organisational structure for the conglomerate Umbrellas D M Helmets D M Fast food D M P R&D P R&D P R&D 5.3.5 H.Q H.Q DIV 1 DIV 2 DIV 3 Growth One frequently cited argument for diversification runs as follows: because of separation of ownership and control asymmetric information, there is typically a principal-agent problem with manager having some discretion over pursuing their objectives at the expense of owners objectives. Owners would normally wish to maximise profits, but managers wish the firm to grow. Therefore, managers may choose diversification for growth – that may be why conglomerates grows. 5.3.6 Risk and uncertainty Diversification can reduce risk in many contexts. If the management of a single-business firm is worried about its dependence on the fortunes of one business it might consider diversifying into other business to spread risk. There are two sets of problems as follows: Opportunity cost of diversification – Diversification moves the firm away from its core business and competencies. It may turn out to be a mistake once opportunity cost considerations is taken into account. There may be cheaper ways to dealing with risks. Owners may spread their risks by diversifying their portfolios The important issue in each case is to identify which, if any, problems are caused with volatile sales this may be solution to reduce risk: Liquid assets (assets that may be quickly realised by the firm) – firm could set aside funds for dips Short-term finance – the firm may not even have to keep a fund in the form of liquid assets if presenting the variation for a bank. They get short-term credit Stockholding – Keep the production on the same level Insurance – it may be possible to transfer the risk to insurance company Long-term contracts is a way the firm could pass on the risk of variability, Vertical integration can be a way to reduce risks and guarantee sales. None of these solutions is free. Another risk is if a rival come up with improved technology and our sales goes down. A strategic bomb is shown. When external threats hit a firm they may not focus just on individual businesses, but on particular linkages. For example, if Firm 3 merged with Firm 8 above it will be able to extract gains from marketing/distribution and technological linkages. The linkages that can help generate enhanced value when the environment is relatively stable can also pose a source of joint weakness when the environment begins to throw up nasty threats. For example, if the M/C business begins to decline, then both jackets and trousers could be attacked along the M/C market linkage. If a rival develops an improved synthetic substitute for leather, then both jackets and trousers can be attacked along the shared technological linkage. Corporate diversification can help provide a basis for defending the firm against unpleasant surprises such as technological innovation by its competitors. However, there are further questions we can ask of this strategy; it is not going to be let off so easily: Why not specialise until you are forced to change to another business? – Diversification usually takes time and costs a lot, so when it has to it may be the worst timing If some corporate diversification is designed to safeguard managerial jobs, can this also be in interest of owners? It can be on very special occasion for instance where the alternative would be bankruptcy or an alternative to loosing the best and necessary resources. If risks such as technological innovation by competitors are often one off surprises, how can management know in advance when they should diversify? – This is impossible to answer- Good strategic management may find indications or warnings On the face of it, conglomerate diversification offers the most obvious way of anticipating threats to the viability of individual businesses. 5.4 Forms of Diversification Firms diversify for a number of reasons. These include market power, resource effect, user gains, creation of internal markets, growth motives and dealing with the possibility of attacks on the viability of individual businesses. Most motives suggest that the firm should stay as close to home as possible. Related link strategy (Richard Rumelt Harvard Business School) is when firms simultaneously exploit the gains from the linkages between businesses together with risk-spreading benefits of multiple markets and multiple technologies that the conglomerate strategy offers. New game: Helmets MC Audio equipment Jackets 12 6 Saddles 3 Handbags Umbrellas 11 15 14 Fast food 13 9 10 16 Market Motor cycle Motor cycle Motor cycle Horse riding Accessories Accessories Restaurant Plastics/ Technology Carbon-fire Electronic Leather Leather Leather Retailing metals Some moves Firm 3 can make in game 2 MC jackets pursues market-based diversification, exploiting selling and distribution linkages: Helmets D M P R&D Jackets D M Audio D M P R&D P R&D Here MC jackets becomes a conglomerate, moving into new markets and technologies: Umbrellas D M Jackets D M Fast food D M P R&D P R&D P R&D Technology based diversification MC jackets exploits production and R&D competencies: Handbags D M Jackets D M Saddles D M P R&D P R&D P R&D The related-linked strategy; here MC jackets exploits different linkages in its moves: Helmets D M P R&D Jackets D M Handbags D M P R&D P R&D The most important attacks in real life corporate battles tend to be the following: Innovation in from of new products or processes Change in consumer tastes Change in government restriction Resource depletion, an industry can simple begin to run out of raw material. Resource depletion is likely to be a slow ticking bomb at worst with firms usually having plenty of time to prepare for the worst. How much damage can a simple bomb do? The answer depends on the pattern of linkage, not just the extent of linkages. Market bombs can be dangerous to firms that are diversified and market related. Technology bombs can be dangerous for firms that are diversified and technological related. Technology and market threats do not affect the firm as a whole if it is a conglomerate that’s one favour for the conglomerate. Growth using related-linked strategy: Helmets D M P R&D Jackets D M Handbags D M Umbrellas D M P R&D P R&D P R&D Related-linked expansion; now no more than two of the firm's businesses are vulnerable to any threat to specific competencies By the figure above, a single bomb could only impact on two of its four businesses even if it were aimed at a competence and not a single business. This is a degree of insulation from external threat, which is almost as good as the conglomerate, and indeed the more that the related-linked firm expands using this strategy, the closer it approximates the degree of protection offered by conglomerates. But it is not a conglomerate since every business is linked to every other and there is a solid level of linkage exploited as we move through the strategy, just as in the case of the market-based and technology-based diversifiers. This is a strategy that seems to enable management to exploit the advantages of related diversification without incurring the dangers of exposure to a single external threat. The related-linked strategy is one of the unsung successes of corporate diversification. Rumelt’s study found that it had been adopted by many of the most successful large firms in the US economy since the nineteen-sixties. Conglomerates usually do not exist for synergy, deep pocket, market power reasons, or to absorb the risks to individual businesses. Anything the conglomerate can do in these respects, related to diversification can match and improve on. Answers to the riddle of the conglomerate must lie elsewhere and include the following: The disguised related-link firm: many firms which appears to be conglomerates because of the diversity of their businesses turn out on closer inspection to be related-linked firms rather than genuine conglomerates. Restructuring of related-linked firms: Related linked strategy can be fragile and it does not take much to turn into a conglomerate, especially if the firm is under pressure to divest lossmaking businesses. If a related-linked firm decides to divest loss-making businesses that act as connectors to the rest of the firm D M D M D M D M D M P R&D P R&D P R&D P R&D P R&D ...then it may turn itself into a conglomerate by default D M D M D M P R&D P R&D P R&D D M P R&D No alternatives: There are some industries which have faced external threats in the past for which it has been difficult to find closely related products. Tobacco and petroleum are two cases in point in which attempts to expand and escape from a threatened industrial base led the firms into unrelated fields when value-enhancing related opportunities proved difficult to find. Rapid growth: Synergy takes time and patience to release. If the firm is seeking really fast growth rates in the immediate time period and the capital market is willing to bankroll your plans, then synergy is less important. Strategic planning can become dominated by availability of acquisitions rather than how they fit existing businesses. This is how many acquisitive firms in the past turned into conglomerate. Path dependency: Restructuring, the absence of alternative and rapid growth may explain why some firms become conglomerates but they do not help explain why they remain such. One answer is the path dependency. The managing skills in the firm may be built on managing unrelated businesses and shifting strategy involve a major change among top management skills and substantial transaction costs in buying and selling business until the new strategy is created. Conglomerate focus: Management learn and adapt. They may not be able to change their spot easily but they can do the next best thing – they can shuffle them around. Downsizing and conglomerate persistence: This conglomerate has been hit by threats to two of its businesses... D M D M D M D M D M P R&D P R&D P R&D P R&D P R&D ...so it has divested these loss makers and instructed the three ramaining groups to diversify into related fields D M P R&D D M P R&D D M P R&D D M P R&D D M P R&D D M P R&D Vertical integration is unlikely to be a successful long-term solution for a firm in a declining industry. Decline in unit cost with cumulative production is the definition of the learning curve