SARCOF-15 Summary
The Southern Africa Development Community Climate Services Centre (SADC CSC) held its Fifteenth
Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-15), in Windhoek, Namibia, between 29
and 30 August 2011. The two-day forum was preceded by an intensive workshop of climate
scientists from 14 of the 15 SADC countries, to construct the outlook for the September-OctoberNovember (SON) 2011, and December-January-February (DJF) 2011-2012 summer rainfall seasons.
Both the workshop and forum meeting were kindly supported by the World Bank’s Global Facility for
Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).
The consensus forecast for the OND season foresees normal to below-normal rainfall conditions
over much of the central interior of southern Africa (Figure 1a). During DFJ, much of the central
interior is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, with parts of the south-eastern
subcontinent, as well as northern Tanzania and Madagascar likely to receive above normal rains
(Figure 1b). A more detailed description of the consensus outlook is available from the full SARCOF
statement, which will be available on the SADC website (www.sadc.int).
a)
b)
Figure 1: Seasonal Rainfall forecast for a) SON 2011 and b) DJF 2011/2012 (source: SADC CSC
SARCOF-15).