GEOG M1409: Environmental Policy and Politics School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol TB1 (Autumn) 2013 Unit Convenor Dr Malcolm Fairbrother Lecturer in Global Policy and Politics School of Geographical Sciences Contact Information Office: 2.21N E-mail: m.fairbrother@bristol.ac.uk Tel: (0117) 92 88303 Seminar Schedule Wednesdays 11.00-12:50, SR1 Weeks 1-9, 11 Office Hours Mondays 14.00-16.00, or by appointment Unit Overview and Goals1 The goal of this unit is to make you an effective maker and analyst of public policies for protecting the natural environment. After completing the unit, you should know how to devise appropriate policies for resolving environmental problems, making you well prepared for work in government or another job where you seek to shape public policy. The unit will introduce you to the various kinds of measures which governments and other public authorities use to protect the natural environment, and to the benefits and costs of these measures. We will seek to understand the drivers of environmental problems generally. And we will discuss the importance of assessing a measure’s effectiveness, and the kinds of techniques and research methods available for conducting environmental policy analyses. In principle, most people say they believe in environmental protection; but in practice, environmental measures usually encounter some kind of opposition, and environmental policymaking is contentious. For this reason, policymakers and policy analysts need to understand the political context in which policies get made— including opponents’ motives, worldviews, and beliefs; the nature and impact of public opinion; political institutions; and the challenges of coordinating policy internationally. The unit therefore briefly covers these kinds of political issues as well. The readings consist of policy documents, research reports, academic papers, and selections from textbooks on environmental economics and law. They address a diversity of environmental problems and issues, ranging in scale from the local to the global, and drawn from many different countries. The structure of the unit’s seminars will vary somewhat from week to week, but will typically include a lecture by the instructor, plus some sort of plenary or small group discussion, or a simulation (negotiations or Press Conference—see below). Active participation is essential: you must do the required readings before each seminar, bring questions and topics for discussion, and arrive at the simulations ready to participate effectively. The simulations will focus on two environmental topics we will revisit multiple times: regulations on air pollution from ships in the European Union, and the establishment of a national greenhouse gas emissions strategy incorporating a tax and/or tradable permit scheme. Assessments2 1 Note that the contents of this document supersede anything circulated previously, such as an MSc Course Handbook. 2 There are three compulsory assignments for the unit: (1) First Negotiation Analysis (0%; maximum 600 words; due 17 October) This document will represent and summarise your preparations for the first simulation. In this document, you will report your individual negotiating objectives and priorities, and reasons for them, and you should discuss key issues likely to arise in the negotiations. You should use the word “I” (and maybe “we” in the context of playing your role), and incorporate key concepts covered in lectures and readings. You should role-play appropriately, pursuing “your” interests, and expressing values and beliefs appropriate to your role. Note that this assignment is compulsory, but counts 0% towards your unit mark. I will give you a mark and some feedback, which you can use to improve your performance in the next simulation. (2) Second Negotiation Analysis (30%; maximum 1000 words; due 14 November) This document will represent and summarise your preparations for the second simulation. The instructions are the same as for the First Negotiation Analysis, though by now you should have developed your skills as a negotiator and as a policy analyst. You should clearly articulate both your ideal outcome(s) and what you realistically hope to achieve. You are free to make reference to existing/prior policies, schemes, and initiatives elsewhere in the world, and again you should role-play appropriately. The simulation will conclude with a “Press Conference,” by which time your group will have circulated a written summary of the results of your negotiations. Based on that summary, and what you say in the Press Conference, your peers in other groups will (anonymously) assess your performance as a negotiator. Their assessment will be reflected in your mark on this assignment—potentially raising or lowering your mark (on the 101-point scale) by up to five marks. (3) Policy and Political Analysis (70%; maximum 3500 words; due 19 December) For this assignment, you will write an analysis of an environmental policy problem/ issue of your choice. (You must choose an issue that can be addressed in some way by public policy.) Although the topic you write about is up to you, I recommend that you discuss your idea with me and get my go-ahead before you spend too much time researching it. The analysis will consist of two parts: First, a Policy Memo of no more than 800 words, covering no more than two sides of A4 (including any tables, figures, etc., if you use them). Second, a more in-depth Research Report on the issue, including its political aspects.3 The Policy Memo must: Be addressed to a specific reader.4 Be sure not to plagiarise (present others’ work as your own). If you have any questions about plagiarism, please ask, since your work will be run through the Turnitin software. For all assignments, use an agreeable font, font size, margins, etc. References at the end do not count towards the word limit, but everything else does (i.e., anything you expect me actually to read). 3 References should appear at the end of the Research Report, not the Memo. 4 Pick a sensible hypothetical recipient, identified by a real or plausible title—someone working for a relevant (local, national, international) policymaking authority. You might identify a title by looking at the organisational structures of, for example, national environment ministries. Many are on the web, 2 3 Briefly review the issue at hand. Include relevant information about the magnitude of a problem, what research says about it, etc. Note that it will be hard to boil down a potentially complex issue into such a short space, and part of what you will be assessed on is your ability to make good choices about what information is most worth including here. Present some policy options (one of which may be the status quo), with a brief comment about their various benefits and costs, or pros and cons. The benefits and costs can be environmental, economic, political, or whatever you consider most important for the policymaker. Be as specific as possible. The Policy Memo may also, optionally, recommend one option. (Normally, this recommended option will follow naturally from the benefits and costs you have presented.) The Research Report will elaborate on what you discuss in the Policy Memo. This part must include the following elements: A fuller discussion of the (environmental, economic, political, social, etc.) benefits and costs of the different policy options. You may choose to address the timescale on which these benefits and costs will be realised, uncertainties about them, and/or who will receive/pay them. If relevant, you may wish to address issues of implementation/administration and/or enforcement. An analysis of distributional/equity implications, if relevant, and if you have not addressed them in the discussion of benefits and costs. Political aspects of the issue, again if you have not addressed them in the discussion of benefits and costs. This discussion could address public opinion on, or the likely public response to, the various policy options; the identity, stances, and power of relevant interest groups; and perhaps how one or more policy options might be framed/presented for maximum acceptance. How do you know all of the above? In other words, what is the evidence basis for what you have said about benefits and costs, distributional/equity concerns, and political aspects? Have similar measures been tried previously elsewhere, such that lessons can be learned from the experiences of others? Is there a relevant research literature? What kinds of further research or consultations, if any, could contribute to the elaboration of effective policy proposals and our knowledge of which option should be selected? Such research could address any of the natural, economic, social, or political aspects of the issue. If further research seems important for effectively confronting the policy dilemma, you may optionally wish to describe, briefly, one or more appropriate research designs/methods. Schedule of Topics and Required Readings Week 1: Overview, Planning, and an Introduction to Policy Analyses Readings: none We begin with an overview of the topics to be covered in the unit, the learning objectives, the simulations/role-plays, and the unit’s assessments. Then we will have such as the Czech Republic’s at http://www.mzp.cz/en/organisational_structure and Australia’s at http://www.environment.gov.au/about/structure/pubs/structure.pdf. 4 a discussion of the topics you are each, at this early stage, thinking about addressing in your policy analyses. What is the environmental problem, and what are the barriers to its resolution? We finish with a lecture about some fundamentals of environmental policymaking: the role of the state (government) in protecting the environment; reasons why some people might object to a given environmental protection measure; and the role of science in environmental policymaking. I will also explain why I think this unit needs to cover a fair bit of both economics and politics, and perhaps talk briefly about my own background and expertise. Week 2: The Environment, Externalities, and Scarcity * overview and formation of groups for next week’s simulation, on the issue of regulating SO2 emissions from ships in European waters Readings: Krugman 2010 Ostrom 1990: 1-28 (Chapter 1) Endres 2011: 1-29 (Part 1) http://news.sciencemag.org/europe/2013/08/pesticidemakers-challenge-e.u.neonicotinoid-ban-court http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/scc.html Supplementary: Hardin 1968 Weiss 1989 This week we cover some fundamentals of environmental economics, focussing on a number of key concepts: market failures, common property resources, public goods, collective action problems, scarcity, the tragedy of the commons, and—most importantly—externalities. The readings and lecture this week will illustrate the basic logic of game theory, and we will also briefly discuss the idea of a discount rate and issues of inter-generational distribution. We begin to consider the policy and political implications of an externalities-based view of the environment. Today’s seminar will also include an overview of the issues about which you will be negotiating next week. Week 3: Policy Instruments I * simulation of UK parliamentary negotiations over the European Union’s regulation of air pollution from ships * DUE (via Blackboard): an individual statement of your negotiating objectives and priorities for today’s simulation (compulsory, but not marked) Readings: Endres 2011: 102-150 (“Standard-Oriented Instruments of Environmental Policy”) Bugge 2009 OECD 2011a Seas At Risk et al. 2008 Bell et al. 2013: 245-247, 257-260 (on C&C versus economic instruments) https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/increasing-the-use-of-low-carbontechnologies/supporting-pages/the-renewables-obligation-ro http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commonsselect/transport-committee/news/sulpher-new-inquiry/ Supplementary: Gullison et al. 2007 5 KPMG 2013 GLOBE International 2013 Bell et al. 2013: 228-267 (Chapter 8, on regulation) Schembari et al. 2012 What can governments (“the state”) do to help protect the environment? This week we consider the range of policy instruments that public authorities typically have at their disposal: “command and control” regulations, legal liability laws, fees/taxes/charges, tradable permits, subsidies, information disclosure laws, depositrefund schemes, and voluntary schemes. We consider the challenges of choosing from among these options, reviewing their pros and cons. The reading from the OECD provides some practical advice about the design of “green taxes,” and the one from KPMG surveys their prevalence. Week 4: Economic Development and the Environment * DUE (via e-mail, at least 24 hours before the seminar): one summary per group of the outcome of your negotiations last week (compulsory, but not marked) * Press Conference for each group * general discussion of the simulation and the negotiation outcomes Readings: Romer 2007 Dasgupta et al. 2002 OECD 2011b Dietz et al. 2007 MacKay 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/10/opinion/pollution-economics.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-17/china-emission-tradingexperiment-unlikely-to-ease-cities-smog.html Supplementary: Kauppi et al. 2006 Persha et al. 2011 Grossman and Krueger 1995 Zheng et al. 2011 Zero Carbon Britain 2010 Having looked at the tools governments have at their disposal, this week we consider whether those tools are up to the job: Are they enough to save the environment, given the pressures of economic growth and development? Is further economic growth incompatible with environmental protection, and maybe even the viability of continued human life on Earth? This week’s readings consider the relationship between economic development and the environment, assessing differences in environmental outcomes across nations, and patterns in how environmental performance has changed over time. Week 5: Power, Politics, and Environmental Protection * briefing for second simulation (on national GHG emission reduction strategies) * formation of groups for the second simulation Readings: Michaelowa 1998 Boyce 2007 Kelemen and Vogel 2010 6 Pearce 2006 Harrison 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/world/asia/as-chinas-environmentalwoes-worsen-infighting-emerges-as-biggest-obstacle.html Supplementary: Bugge 2009 (re-read) Lambin et al. 2001 Miles and Kapos 2008 Lemos and Roberts 2008 Canadell and Raupach 2008 The concept of externalities implies that environmental degradation and protection are issues of distribution and justice. It also suggests that protecting the environment will be contentious, and difficult. Under what conditions, then, can effective environmental protections be imposed? What makes them more politically feasible? This week, we think about the place of power in environmental policymaking, and about the roles of various kinds of actors: corporations, environmental organisations, politicians, and bureaucrats. Week 6: International Environmental Coordination Readings: Mitchell 2003 Endres 2011: 250-256 (on the Kyoto Protocol) and 270-282 (on the EU ETS) Bell et al. 2013: 137-173 (Chapter 6, on international environmental law) Kerr 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/16/ecuador-abandons-yasuniamazon-drilling Supplementary: Birnie et al. 2009: Chapter 2 Putnam 1988 Biermann 2002 Biermann and Pattberg 2008 Having focussed previously on environmental problems solvable with interventions by a single national government, this week we turn to environmental problems whose solution requires coordinated action by multiple governments. We assess the sources of nations’ international environmental policies, and we confront the similarities and differences between national and international decision- and policymaking—as well as the way that international negotiations are “two-level games.” We identify some key international organisations, forums, and agreements for environmental protection, and consider cases of both successful and failed international coordination—plus ongoing negotiations about REDD+. Week 7: Household Behaviours and Public Opinion * DUE (via Blackboard, 14 November): Negotiations Analysis * simulation on national GHG emission reduction strategies Readings: OECD 2011c: pages TBD OECD 2006: 152-155 (“Enhancing Public Acceptance”) and 133-144 (“Impacts on Income Distribution”) Green Fiscal Commission 2009 7 Department of Energy and Climate Change 2011 (pages TBA) Dietz et al. 2009 Bell et al. 2013: 314-322 (part of Chapter 10, on public participation) http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2292854/poll-uk-energy-policy-is-notgreen-enough http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Take-action/Find-a-grant/Green-Dealand-ECO Supplementary: Eurobarometer 2011 Resolving many environmental problems entails changing household behaviours. This week we look at research on the determinants of households’ environmental impacts, and on the tools that governments can use to encourage less (or more) environmentally damaging activities. We also consider what is arguably the most important thing that members of the public can do to protect the environment: encouraging politicians to enact more environmentally friendly policies. Survey research clarifies what the public wants and believes about environmental problems, and what people perceive as appropriate environmental policies. Week 8: Environmental Programs and their Evaluation * DUE (via e-mail, before the seminar): one summary per group of the outcome of your negotiations the previous week (compulsory, but not marked) * Press Conference for each group—with peer assessment Readings: Ferraro 2009 GAO 2011 Gray and Shimshack 2011 Elgie and McClay 2013 http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2013/08/climate-policy-canada Supplementary: Schembari et al. 2012 (re-read) Caplow et al. 2011 We return this week by considering policy implementation. What do we know about the importance of policy enforcement? And how do we know whether an environmental instrument/policy is actually working, effective, and/or cost-effective? “Programme evaluation” is the assessment of a policy’s actual effects, and this week’s readings clarify how one should think about cause-and-effect relationships. We also consider the record of some specific policy interventions, such as the carbon tax assessed by Elgie and McClay. Week 9: Methods for Environmental Policy and Political Analyses * briefing for Policy and Political Analyses * small group discussions about your Policy and Political Analyses Readings: Ferraro 2009 (re-read) Diamond 2010 Angrist and Pischke 2009: 11-24 (Chapter 2, “The Experimental Ideal”) Pindyck 2013 Supplementary: Ringquist and Kostadinova 2005 8 We conclude by talking about methods and techniques for conducting environmental policy and political analyses—tools which you may put to use in your dissertations. Building on the discussion in the week on programme evaluation, we consider cause-and-effect relationships, and the ways that hypotheses about such relationships can be assessed. Both quantitative and qualitative methods can be useful in this regard, and we consider discussions about and good examples of both. Qualitative tools include informant interviews and analytical comparisons, often put to use in studies of specific “cases.” Quantitative data can be generated at many different spatial/administrative levels, ranging from households to countries. Both space and time can be useful axes of variation in statistical analyses/models. We also consider Pindyck’s paper as an example of how models can be used to assess potential outcomes of policies. Week 10: No Seminar Week 11: * presentations and discussions of your Policy and Political Analyses (in progress) * unit evaluations The idea behind these presentations is for you to get useful feedback that you can incorporate in the documents you submit next week. We will decide the specific organisation/format in the seminar. Week 12: No Seminar * DUE (via Blackboard, 19 December): Policy and Political Analysis References5 Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steffen Pischke. 2009: Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.** Bell, Stuart, Donald McGillivray, and Ole Pedersen. 2013. Environmental Law. 8th Edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Biermann, Frank, and Philipp Pattberg. 2008. “Global Environmental Governance: Taking Stock, Moving Forward.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 33:277–94. Biermann, Frank. 2002: “Institutions for Scientific Advice: Global Environmental Assessments and Their Influence in Developing Countries.” Global Governance 8[2]: 195-219. Birnie, Patricia, Alan Boyle, and Catherine Redgwell. 2009. International Law & the Environment. 3rd edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Boyce, James K. 2007. “Inequality and Environmental Protection.” Pp. 314-348 in Jean-Marie Baland, Pranab Bardhan, and Samuel Bowles (eds.) Inequality, Cooperation, and Environmental Sustainability. New York: Russell Sage. Bugge, Hans Christian. 2009. “The Polluter Pays Principle: Dilemmas of Justice in National and International Contexts.” Pp. 411-428 in Jonas Ebbesson and Phoebe Okowa (eds.) Environmental Law and Justice in Context. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.** 5 Note that, in the online version of this syllabus, the underlined references are hyperlinked to the readings they reference. The few readings not available on the web will be made available in the library and/or via PDFs posted on Blackboard. Readings marked ** are available electronically through the university library—go to https://www.lib.bris.ac.uk/ALEPH/ and search for the title. 9 Canadell, Josep G., and Michael R. Raupach. 2008. "Managing Forests for Climate Change Mitigation." Science 320: 1456-7. Caplow, Susan, Pamela Jagger, Kathleen Lawlor, and Erin Sills. 2011. "Evaluating Land Use and Livelihood Impacts of Early Forest Carbon Projects: Lessons for Learning about REDD+." Environmental Science & Policy 14: 152-67. Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Hua Wang, and David Wheeler. 2002. “Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 16[1]: 147-68. Department of Energy and Climate Change. 2011. “The Green Deal and Energy Company Obligation Impact Assessment.” Diamond, Jared. 2010. “Intra-Island and Inter-Island Comparisons.” Pp. 120-141 in Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson (eds.) Natural Experiments of History. Cambridge: Belknap. Dietz, Thomas, Eugene A Rosa, and Richard York. 2007. “Driving the Human Ecological Footprint.” Frontiers in Ecology and The Environment 5[1]: 13-18. Elgie, Stewart, and Jessica McClay. 2013. “BC’s Carbon Tax Shift Is Working Well after Four Years (Attention Ottawa).” Canadian Public Policy 39[s2]: 1-10. Endres, Alfred. 2011. Environmental Economics: Theory and Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press. Eurobarometer. 2011. Summary of “Attitudes of European Citizens Towards the Environment.” Ferraro, Paul J. 2009. “Counterfactual Thinking and Impact Evaluation in Environmental Policy.” New Directions for Evaluation 122: 75–84. GAO. 2011. “Performance Measurement and Evaluation: Definitions and Relationships.” Glossary. GLOBE International. 2013. “Climate Legislation Study: A Review of Climate Change Legislation in 33 Countries.” 3rd Edition.” Edited by Terry Townshend, Sam Fankhauser, Rafael Aybar, Murray Collins, Tucker Landesman, Michal Nachmany and Carolina Pavese. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Gray, Wayne B., and Jay P. Shimshack. 2011. “The Effectiveness of Environmental Monitoring and Enforcement: A Review of the Empirical Evidence.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 0[0]: 1–23. Green Fiscal Commission. 2009. “Public Opinion on a Green Tax Shift.” Briefing Paper. June. Grossman, Gene M., and Alan B. Krueger. 1995. “Economic Growth and the Environment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110[2]: 353-377. Gullison, Raymond E., et al. 2007. “Tropical Forests and Climate Policy.” Science 316: 985-6. Hardin, Garrett. 1968. “The Tragedy of the Commons.” Science 162: 1243-1248. Harrison, Kathryn. 2010. “The Comparative Politics of Carbon Taxation.” Annual Review of Law and Social Science 6: 507–29. HSBC 2012: “Climate Investment Update” Kauppi, Pekka E., Jesse H. Ausubel, Jingyun Fang, Alexander S. Mather, Roger A. Sedjo, and Paul E. Waggoner. 2006. “Returning Forests Analyzed with the Forest Identity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103[46]: 17574–17579. Kelemen, R. Daniel, and David Vogel. 2010. “Trading Places: The Role of the United States and the European Union in International Environmental Politics.” Comparative Political Studies 2010 43: 427-56. 10 Kerr, Suzi C. 2013. “The Economics of International Policy Agreements to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 7[1]: 47–66. Krugman, Paul. 2010. “Building a Green Economy.” The New York Times. April 7. Lambin, Eric F., et al. 2001. “The Causes of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Moving Beyond the Myths.” Global Environmental Change 11: 261-269. Lemos, Maria Carmen, and J. Timmons Roberts. 2008. “Environmental policymaking networks and the future of the Amazon.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 363: 1897–1902. MacKay 2008: synopsis of “Without the Hot Air” Michaelowa, Axes. 1998: “Climate Policy and Interest Groups – a Public Choice Analysis.” Intereconomics: 251-59. Miles, Lera, and Valerie Kapos. 2008. "Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation: Global Land-Use Implications." Science 320: 1454-1455. Mitchell, Ronald B. 2003: “International Environmental Agreements: A Survey of Their Features, Formation, and Effects.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28: 429–61. OECD 2011a: “Environmental Taxation: A Guide for Policy Makers.” September. OECD 2011b: “Resource Productivity in the G8 and the OECD: A Report in the Framework of the Kobe 3R Action Plan.” OECD 2011c: pages TBD out of “Greening Household Behaviour.” OECD. 2006. The Political Economy of Environmentally Related Taxes. Paris: OECD.** Ostrom, Elinor. 1990. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Pearce, David. 2006. “The Political Economy of an Energy Tax: The United Kingdom’s Climate Change Levy.” Energy Economics 28: 149–158. Persha, Lauren, Arun Agrawal, Ashwini Chhatre. 2011. “Social and Ecological Synergy: Local Rulemaking, Forest Livelihoods, and Biodiversity Conservation.” Science 331: 1606-1608. Pindyck, Robert S. 2013. “The Climate Policy Dilemma.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 7[2]: 219–237. Putnam, Robert D. 1988. “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games.” International Organization 42[3]: 427-60. Ringquist, Evan J., and Tatiana Kostadinova. 2005. “Assessing the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements: The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol.” American Journal of Political Science 49[1]: 86-102. Romer, Paul M. 2007. “Economic Growth.” In David R. Henderson (ed.) The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. Liberty Fund. Schembari, Clara, Fabrizia Cavalli, Eleonora Cuccia, Jens Hjorth, Giulia Calzolai, Noemi Pérez, Jorge Pey, Paolo Prati, and Frank Raes. 2012. “Impact of a European Directive on Ship Emissions on Air Quality in Mediterranean Harbours.” Atmospheric Environment 61: 661-9. Seas At Risk, Bellona Foundation, North Sea Foundation, European Environmental Bureau, Swedish NGO Secretariat on Acid Rain, and European Federation for Transport and Environment. 2008. “Air Pollution from Ships.” Weiss, Edith Brown. 1989. “Climate Change, Intergenerational Equity and International Law: An Introductory Note.” Climatic Change 15: 327-335. Zero Carbon Britain 2010: Executive Summary 11 Zheng, Siqi, Rui Wang, Edward L. Glaeser, and Matthew E. Kahn. 2011. “The Greenness of China: Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development.” Journal of Economic Geography 11: 761–792.