Fig. S1. Photographs of partially migratory masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou). (a) A pair of migrants in the breeding season. (b) Male residents and a female migrant in the breeding season. The insets illustrate wounded residents. (c) An outmigrating smolt (i.e., potential migrant) characterized by silvery body and black margin on the dorsal fin. (a) (b) (c) 1 Fig. S2. Two typical trajectories of the number of fry aged 0+ years (thin lines), outmigrating smolts (dashed lines), and returning migrants (thick lines) of masu salmon from simulations of the stochastic, life cycle model, (a) T = 6 °C and (b) T = 10 °C. 2 Table S1. Masu salmon life history and temperature data of 22 Japanese rivers (updated from Morita & Nagasawa, 2010). (a) Breeding season sampling, (b) outmigrating season and corresponding adult sampling. Numbers of fish are in parentheses. (a) Breeding season sampling Temperature (°C) River Ichannai R. (Masuhoro R.) Sanru R. (Teshio R.) Sampling date Sept 2007 Sept 2008 Tokotan R. Sept 2007 Kobechanai R. Sept 2007 Hutagoe R. Sept 2008 Ohtsukushinai R. Sept 2008 Isomatsu R. Sept 2007 Tomari R. Sept 2007 Ohno R. Oct 2008 Hase R. Sept 2007 Kurumigahara R. (Jintsu R.) Oct 2007 Togi R. Sept 2007 Kugami R. Oct 2010 Location 45°25´N, 141°55´E 44°26´N, 142°45´E 43°40´N, 141°21´E 42°45´N, 140°09´E 41°34´N, 140°00´E 41°26´N, 140°04´E 41°06´N, 140°21´E 40°21´N, 140°02´E 38°19´N, 138°28´E 37°43´N, 139°19´E 36°35´N, 137°17´E 37°11´N, 136°47´E 35°35´N, 134°23´E Fork length ± S.D. (mm) Male parr maturity rate at age 0+ (%) Density (m-2) Mean (late May to early Sept) Late May Age 0+ parr Age 1+ parr Age 2+ parr 10.9 7.2 66±8 (164) 91±10 (35) 117±12 (8) 1 (77) 0.428 11.5 8.1 65±13 (267) 113±12 (4) 155±42 (2) 3 (122) 0.944 13.8 7.2 67±10 (178) 106±17 (43) 152±2 (2) 1 (98) 0.666 13.9 9.5 92±10 (168) 140±25 (17) 199±15 (6) 22 (82) 0.145 15.7 11.4 100±12 (109) 234±5 (3) 69 (52) 0.117 15.9 11.6 98±16 (92) 238±40 (3) 51 (51) 0.203 14.0 11.7 84±14 (88) 128±16 (21) 169±21 (4) 41 (39) 0.109 13.9 10.4 94±13 (76) 154±24 (27) 237 (1) 35 (40) 0.106 17.8 14.0 92±17 (155) 180 (1) 55 (77) 0.693 16.1 12.9 89±10 (186) 132±16 (26) 65 (92) 0.204 17.1 13.7 98±11 (68) 148±12 (9) 219 (1) 65 (43) 0.086 13.4 13.3 100±14 (18) 117±22 (31) 188 (1) 71 (7) 0.072 18.7 13.8 112±14 (33) 155±15 (6) 90 (10) 0.026 3 Age 3+ parr 185 (1) 291 (1) (b) Outmigration season and corresponding adult sampling Temperature (°C) River Shimonaefutoro R. ″ Sampling date June 2011 June 2011 Furreppu R. June 2011 ″ June/July 2012 May/June 2011 May/June 2011 Tokotan R. 45°24´N, 142°03´E Mean (late Early June to next May early May) Age 1+ smolt Age 2+ smolt 6.2 109±7 (38) 131±9 (11) 5.2 Age 3+ smolt July 2012 Nairo R. Moshosanbetsu R. Location Proportion of age ≥2+ smolt (%) Fork length ± S.D. (mm) Koitoi R. (Shoro R.) May 2011 Betsubetsu R. May/June 2011 Mokun-nui R. May 2011 Yamazaki R. May 2011 Rubeshibetsu R. May 2011 Adults (age 2+/3+) Sex ratio (%male) Smolts 22 (49) 373±26 (12) 45°23´N, 141°03´E 44°45´N, 142°46´E 47% 42 (12) 42% 6.2 5.3 126±7 (6) 147±6 (3) 33 (9) 44% 5.5 4.0 111±8 (24) 124±10 (10) 29 (34) 41% 386±49 (45) 44°32´N, 141°46´E 43°40´N, 141°21´E 42°59´N, 144°09´E 42°35´N, 141°25´E 42°25´N, 140°19´E 42°19´N, 140°17´E 42°12´N, 143°20´E Adults 7.7 4.6 126±8 (45) 7.1 4.8 117±10 (51) 7.4 6.5 7.7 38 (45) 31% 0 (45) 49% 131±11 (17) 152 (1) 26 (69) 41% 110±9 (26) 129±7 (10) 28 (36) 25% 7.7 131±10 (65) 135±4 (2) 3 (67) 24% 8.2 7.1 126±11 (23) 0 (23) 4% 8.3 7.2 131±15 (26) 4 (27) 22% 7.9 6.9 138±15 (33) 0 (33) 33% 4 158 (1)