Session 3: DME of Peacebuilding Programmes: The Theory of
Change Approach
Summary of CI Conflict Community of Practice (CCP) workshop session on Theories of Change in the
Design, Monitoring and Evaluation of Peacebuilding Programmes. November 28-December 2 2012
Full session notes available on Conflict Wiki:
http://conflict.care2share.wikispaces.net/CCP+Event+November+2011
Contents
1.
Primary Objectives of Session ..................................................................................................... 1
2.
Principle Recommendations: ...................................................................................................... 1
3.
Focus Area Agreed On by CCP DME Working Group .................................................................. 2
4.
List of Presentations/Training Modules ...................................................................................... 2
5.
Training Discussions/Findings ..................................................................................................... 2
a). What are Theory Based Evaluation, Theories of Change? And what is Their Use? ....................... 2
b). Process of Monitoring and Evaluating a Project using TOC Approach .......................................... 3
c). How could the ToC approach complement Programme Approach? .............................................. 4
6.
CCP Working Group Action Plan ................................................................................................. 4
1. Primary Objectives of Session
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Training in:
o the value of theory based evaluation
o use of tools to explicitly state hierarchies of results, and theories of change in
projects; and
o How to gather evidence and use the theories to monitor and evaluate projects or
programming.
Discussion on how we can take the theory of change approach forward in CI
2. Principle Recommendations:
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Using theories of change is highly valuable to programmers and helps improve programming
quality in numerous ways. Programming managers should be encouraged to understand
their use and application, and apply them in their work.
In order to integrate ToC into CARE’s work awareness needs to be raised on the difference
between the theory of change in Programme Approach (Grand Theory) and in programme
DM&E (little “t” theories). They complement each other but are not the same.
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To mainstream their use, ToC should be included in logframes.
The ‘how to guide’, on using theories of change, and Summary paper on learning from the
ToC project should be broadly circulated in CARE when published in 2012.
The CCP, and a future centre of expertise on conflict should play a role in encouraging the
use of ToC by:
o Assisting COs using this in project design and evaluation design,
o Raising awareness with the Programme Quality coordinator in Geneva, and
o Reaching out to RMU level program quality groups by linking ToC with accountability
and quality in all social change projects.
3. Focus Area Agreed On by CCP DME Working Group
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Distinguish and link grand “T” and little “t” ToCs and promote the use of little “t” – or
programming DME theories of change within CARE.
o Review and update programme handbook – see where ‘little’ ToC could fit within
Programme Approach
o Engage with the new PQ person in Geneva on incorporate little “t” into CARE
practice.
o Sharing and promoting the little “t” at RMUs of CO level.
Follow a DRC model of linking an academic to each project to add rigour to their design,
implementation and evaluation. Review how this works in practice and make
recommendations to rest of CCP.
4. List of Presentations/Training Modules
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Mark M. Rogers – Workshop facilitator and Independent Consultant: What is Theory based
evaluation, what is its purpose?
Heidi Ober – CIUK - What is the methodology for applying theories of change (ToC) to a
peacebuilding project? Lessons from a 2.5 year multi agency pilot project.
Heidi Ober – Training on how to unpack hierarchy of results, and formulate theories of
change. Training based on case studies of CARE projects/programmes from Sri Lanka,
Burundi, Yemen, and West Bank Gaza
Mark M. Rogers - Integrating ToC into Logframes. How do you make ToC co-exist with
existing DME requirements and tools?
Rachel Goldwyn (CIUK): Planning on how to Review ToC. Training on using an application to
formulate research questions for evaluating a theory of change and using an application to
gather the data.
Sarita Karki (CARE Nepal): ToC in practice – Experiences of using the approach in a project in
Nepal.
5. Training Discussions/Findings
a). What are Theory Based Evaluation, Theories of Change? And what is Their Use?
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Peacebuilding programming is built on numerous assumptions, or ‘theories of change’,
about how interventions contribute to peace. In its simplest form a theory of change can be
stated as, ‘We believe that by doing X (action) it will achieve Y (progress towards peace).’
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Grand Theory asks ‘What happens if?’ e.g. If they change the culture of violence, violence
will end. We are not interested in this level, it is too broad. Instead, theory based evaluation
looks at ‘little theory’/programme level theory and asks why? e.g. If we train local
mediators, there will be reduced violence. Why? because they will be more able to quickly
address local disputes which will result in reduced local tensions.
“Theory-based evaluation tests the links between what programs assume their activities are
accomplishing and what actually happens at each step along the way.” (Weiss 2000)
Theory based evaluation is currently popular among donors in peacebuilding because there
is a lack of evidence linking activities to results, unlike in other development areas.
Using the ToC approach built capacity among participating staff in the DME project over 2.5
years in three countries. It helped in their understanding of how their projects worked by
provided clarity on project activities, target groups and expected results. After review many
strengthened their project design with small and large changes.
o “Formulating ToC has improved my analytical skills and by developing the theory, it
helps us to really document the changes [results]. We have since used it in our
country office and have introduced it into proposals for USAID.” Sarita Karki (Nepal,
Workshop Participant)
b). Process of Monitoring and Evaluating a Project using TOC Approach
1) Unpack the project into the Hierarchy of Results
2) Identify Theories of Change (ToC) and select those ToCs to be evaluated
3) Identify the intended changes within the ToC
4) Identify indicators
5) Identify Data, Data Collection
6) Develop findings, and conduct analysis
7) Make recommendations, Next steps”
For more information on each step and tools, see the full workshop notes, Peacebuilding with Impact
Report, and the How to Guide on using theories of change to be published in early 2012.
Key Principles:
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Conflict analysis is critical before design, intervention and evaluation, and design should be
tied to addressing the underlying causes of conflict identified in the conflict analysis.
Conflicts frequently change, therefore you need to do review your ToC regularly, depending
how feasible it is and how much your conflict is in flux.
Every initiative has multiple chains of ToC which should link up to one grand ToC. If they do
not it needs to be questioned as to why these activities are being implemented
ToC are not always looking to do something. They can also be preventative and try to stop
something from occurring (ie. Violence).
Theory-based evaluation needs to be used in conjunction with other evaluation approaches
such as implementation, outcome or impact evaluation in order to give a comprehensive
view of the purpose, results and success of an initiative.
In order to establish the validity of your evaluation, you should keep a note of alternative
theories which could contribute to the changes set out.
Integrating ToC into Existing Practices:
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A key recommendation is to put the theories of change in the assumptions and risk column
of a log frame.
o You will need to unpack the logframe that went to the donor so that each row only
has one change.
o Between two changes should be a ToC which explains how we get from one level to
the next.
o Once the TOC have been added to the logframe, don’t forget about them. Refer
back to them, in the logframe, as you implement to see if you are getting the
changes you expected to see.
Reflections on Using TOC approach from Participants:
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It is useful in design and in strengthening existing DME. For example, the process helped to
clarify the actors and interventions that we need to focus on. We can make really big
assumptions that key actors will participate in activities and then actively listen/engage
without the necessary activities to ensure this attitude .
It highlights the importance of trying to make realistic assumptions and therefore the
language and phrasing of results and what you expect needs to be correct.
The process is difficult at first to understand and support/training/resources needs to be
provided if this is to be understood by CARE staff and partners.
There is a risk the process can be reductive. Focusing on one strand of the hierarchy and
how activities lead to results may over-simplify matters, as the rationale for the expected
changes only make sense when combined with the other activities around it.
c). How could the ToC approach complement Programme Approach?
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In the definition of programme – there is an explicit Grand ToC. This has to be distinguished
from the little “t” ToC which exist at every level of an intervention.
Little “t” ToCs contribute at the level of initiatives to help fully understand how projects
work. For the country offices which have not made the conceptual leap from project to
programme approaches, the ToC approach could be used to see how project fit together
into a grand theory or theories.
There is no one formula for programme approach grand theories of change. Different CO’s
have different ways of expressing theirs and therefore it is not consistent (not that it should
be). However grand “T” ToCs could be used to test the logic of specific expected outcomes
that feed into the components of the formula for P-Shift TOC.
Theories of change at the grand level can make the change you want to see explicit for
donors. This has worked with USAID, but did not for SIDA. Having articulated little “t”
strengthens the logic and case for how you will achieve the grand “T” change.
6. CCP Working Group Action Plan
Action plan can be found here: http://conflict.care2share.wikispaces.net/TOC+working+Group