Pacific Region Climate Change Science Digest
November 2014 Issue
As many of you may know, I will be leaving federal service this week on Nov 14th. I am pleased
to announce that the Northwest Climate Science Center (CSC) and the North Pacific Landscape
Conservation Cooperative (LCC) will continue issuing the Digest and the learning opportunities
announcements, on a trial basis. If you have a published article, report or learning
announcement to share, please send it to nwcsc@uw.edu
The University of Washington will take the lead for the Digest on behalf of the Northwest CSC,
and if you have questions or suggestions, please contact Lisa Hayward Watts, Ph.D.,
Communications Manager, Northwest Climate Science Center, University of Washington, 206795-8843 lhayward@usgs.gov (for suggested Digest entries, please send material to
nwcsc@uw.edu).
The North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative will take the lead to compile learning
opportunities announcements and if you have questions or suggestions, please contact Meghan
Kearney, NPLCC Communications Specialist, 360-753-7766 meghan_kearney@fws.gov (but
again, send informational items to nwcsc@uw.edu )
Many thanks to the NW CSC and the NPLCC, and stay tuned for more information—I’m sure that
Lisa and Meghan will make great improvements along the way!
Finally, for this edition we want to thank all who contributed content, especially the PNW
Climate Impacts Research Consortium, the Climate Impacts Group, and the Rocky Mountain
Research Station.
Farewell,
David Patte
Climate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)
US Fish and Wildlife Service
Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon
(503) 231-6210
If you have received this email from a colleague and want to be added to the mailing list, please contact
nwcsc@uw.edu
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Climate change is shifting winter bird communities
Arid Ecosystems
A field guide for treatment of sagebrush and piñon-juniper ecosystems
Sagebrush ecosystems and Greater Sage-Grouse habitat
Effects of climate change on net primary production of US rangelands
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
New web site for the Salish Sea Marine Survival Project is now live
New insights into causes of sea level rise
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
Relative effects of climate change and wildfires on stream temperatures
Restoring wetlands can lessen soil sinkage and greenhouse gas emissions
Estimates of twenty-first-century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest
Forests
Co-occurring Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir respond differently to environmental factors
associated with climate change
Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings
Drought-triggered western spruce budworm outbreaks in the Interior Northwest
Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North
American forests
Regional forest landscape restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an
uncertain future in the northern Rocky Mountains
Fire
Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire severity, and postfire tree regeneration in the
US Northern Rockies
A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011
A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of
fires
Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges
Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression
expenditure models
Vulnerability of bull trout in the face of wildfires and climate change
Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in
the contiguous Western United States
Land Use
Rangelands as Carbon Sinks to Mitigate Climate Change: A Review
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
EPA Grants to Drought-Stricken Southwest Tribes Total $43 Million
Taking Action
Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans
More than 100 Washington businesses call for strong action on Climate Change by signing The
Washington Business Climate Declaration
NASA Program Enhances Climate Resilience at Agency Facilities
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
Worst MegaDrought in 1,000 years?
National Geographic October 2014 Feature Story on Drought in the West
Special Reports/ Announcements
IPCC's "Synthesis Report" and "Summary for Policymakers” released Nov 2
Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington
The LCC Network has released its latest strategic plan
Federal climate change plans
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the third edition of 'Climate Change
Indicators in the United States.'
USGCRP annual report
BIODIVERSITY/ SPECIES AND ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE------------------------------------------Winter bird communities in eastern North America are shifting, thanks partly to climate
change: Species that typically prefer warmer weather, such as chipping sparrows, Carolina
wrens, and eastern bluebirds, are advancing north:
http://conservationmagazine.org/2014/10/38375/
Princé, K. and B. Zuckerberg. 2014. Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North
America’s winter bird communities. Global Change Biology doi: 10.1111/gcb.12740.
ARID ECOSYSTEMS--------------------------------------------------------Sagebrush and piñon-juniper ecosystems: Field guide for treatment: This field guide identifies
seven primary components that largely determine resilience to disturbance, as well as
resistance to invasive grasses and plant succession following treatment of areas of concern: (1)
characteristics of the ecological site, (2) current vegetation prior to treatment, (3) disturbance
history, (4) type, timing, and severity of the treatment, (5) post-treatment weather, (6) posttreatment management, especially grazing, and (7) monitoring and adaptive management. A
series of key questions and a set of tools are provided to assess these primary components. This
assessment is designed to allow field personnel to (1) evaluate resilience to disturbance and
resistance to invasive annual grass for an area of concern, (2) predict the potential successional
pathways, and (3) then select the most appropriate treatment, including the need for seeding.
Miller, Richard F.; Chambers, Jeanne C.; Pellant, Mike. A field guide for selecting the most
appropriate treatment in sagebrush and piñon-juniper ecosystems in the Great Basin: Evaluating
resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive annual grasses, and predicting vegetation
response. 2014. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-322. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 66 p.
Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr322.html.
Sagebrush ecosystems and Greater Sage-Grouse habitat: This report provides a strategic
approach for conservation of sagebrush ecosystems and Greater Sage-Grouse (sage-grouse) that
focuses specifically on habitat threats caused by invasive annual grasses and altered fire
regimes. It uses information on factors that influence (1) sagebrush ecosystem resilience to
disturbance and resistance to invasive annual grasses and (2) distribution, relative abundance,
and persistence of sage-grouse populations to develop management strategies at both
landscape and site scales. A sage-grouse habitat matrix links relative resilience and resistance of
sagebrush ecosystems with sage-grouse habitat requirements for landscape cover of sagebrush
to help decision makers assess risks and determine appropriate management strategies at
landscape scales.
Using resistance and resilience concepts to reduce impacts of invasive annual grasses and
altered fire regimes on the sagebrush ecosystem and Greater Sage-Grouse: A strategic multiscale approach. Chambers, Jeanne C.; Pyke, David A.; Maestas, Jeremy D.; Pellant, Mike; Boyd,
Chad S.; Campbell, Steven B.; Espinosa, Shawn; Havlina, Douglas W.; Mayer, Kenneth E.;
Wuenschel, Amarina. 2014. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-326. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 73 p. Online:
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr326.html
Moran, M. Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Huete, Alfredo; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Zhang,
Yongguang; Hamerlynck, Erik P.; Augustine, David J.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.;
Peters, Debra P.C.; Starks, Patrick J.; Hernancez, Mariano. Functional response of U.S. grasslands
to the early 21st century drought. 2014. Ecology, 95(8): 2121-2133. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46524.
Effects of climate change on net primary production of US rangelands: Modeling and
experimental results suggest that net primary productivity of grasslands of the interior west of
the US will likely increase under future climate scenarios. Increases will not likely be uniform
across the region, as grasslands dominated by warm season species responded most to
temperature while cool season dominated regions responded more strongly to CO2 enrichment.
Reeves, M.C.; Moreno, A.L.; Bagne, K.E.; & Running, S.W. Estimating climate change effects on
net primary production of rangelands in the United States. 2014. Climatic Change. Online:
http://www.readcube.com/articles/10.1007/s10584-014-1235-8 DOI 10.1007/s10584-0141235-8
COASTAL/MARINE ECOSYSTEMS/ OCEAN ACIDIFICATION/ SEA LEVEL RISE------------The web site for the Salish Sea Marine Survival Project is now live: The site provides details
about a new, comprehensive, international research effort to determine the primary factors
affecting the survival of juvenile salmon and steelhead in the Salish Sea. The launch was made
possible with help from Pacific Salmon Commission’s Southern Fund Committee, Washington
State, and 40+ other federal, state, tribal, and academic project partners and public and private
funders. Visit the web site at: http://marinesurvivalproject.com/
New research quantifies what’s causing sea level to rise: Changes to sea level are mainly
caused by thermal expansion of ocean waters as they heat, changes to the saltiness of water,
and by an increase in ocean waters as ice melts and flows into the sea. The total annual sea level
rise is about 3 mm per year – the question is, how much of that is from expansion and how
much is from melting? This research found that amount of heating decreases with ocean depth
but that every water layer, even the deepest waters, have contributed some to sea level rise.
The authors also report that the sea level rise contribution from the layers 300-2000 meters is
much more than previously reported.
Purkey, S. G., G. C. Johnson and D. P. Chambers. 2014. Relative contributions of ocean mass
and deep steric changes to sea level rise between 1993 and 2013. Journal of Geophysical
Research: Oceans. DOI: 10.1002/2014JC010180 Online:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/new-research-quantifies-sea-level-rise.html
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JC010180/abstract
AQUATIC RESOURCE/ STREAM FLOW/ HYDROLOGY IN THE WESTERN U.S.------------Relative effects of climate change and wildfires on stream temperatures: The authors created
a model using landscape fire and vegetation data and an equation that predicted daily stream
temperatures to explore how climate change and its impacts on fire might affect stream
temperature across a partially forested, mountainous landscape in the western U.S. The model
provides insights into the roles that wildfire and management actions such as fuel reduction and
fire suppression could play in mitigating stream thermal responses to climate change.
Holsinger, Lisa; Keane, Robert E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Eby, Lisa; Young, Michael K. 2014. Climatic
Change. Relative effects of climate change and wildfires on stream temperatures: A simulation
modeling approach in a Rocky Mountain watershed. 2014. Climatic Change. 124: 191-206.
Online: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46508.
Restoring wetlands can lessen soil sinkage and greenhouse gas emissions: Restoring wetlands
can help reduce or reverse soil subsidence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to
research in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The study is one of the first to
continually measure the fluctuations of both carbon and methane as they cycle through
wetlands. Online: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141030133400.htm
Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Cove Sturtevant, Joseph Verfaillie, Sara Knox, Dennis Baldocchi. Parsing
the variability in CH4flux at a spatially heterogeneous wetland: Integrating multiple eddy
covariance towers with high-resolution flux footprint analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Biogeosciences, 2014; 119 (7): 1322 DOI: 10.1002/2014JG002642
Sara Helen Knox, Cove Sturtevant, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Laurie Koteen, Joseph Verfaillie,
Dennis Baldocchi. Agricultural peatland restoration: effects of land-use change on greenhouse
gas (CO2and CH4) fluxes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Global Change Biology, 2014;
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12745
Tracking Interannual Streamflow Variability with Drought Indicies in the US Pacific Northwest:
Drought indices are often used to monitor interannual variability in regional pattern of
hydrology, but approaches vary widely. This study correlated various indices to water-year
runoff for 21 unregulated drainage basins in the Pacific Northwest of the United States to
identify those indices that explain the greatest amount of variability.
Abatzoglou, J.T.; R. Barbero; J.W. Wolf; & Z. A. Holden. 2014. Tracking Interannual Streamflow
Variability with Drought Indices in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 1900–1912.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1
Estimates of twenty-first-century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest based on regional climate
model simulations: Results from a regional climate model simulation show substantial
increases in future flood risk (2040–69) in many Pacific Northwest river basins in the early fall.
Two primary causes are identified: 1) more extreme and earlier storms and 2) warming
temperatures that shift precipitation from snow to rain dominance over regional terrain. The
simulations also show a wide range of uncertainty among different basins stemming from
localized storm characteristics.
Eric P. Salathé Jr., Alan F. Hamlet, Clifford F. Mass, Se-Yeun Lee, Matt Stumbaugh, and Richard
Steed, 2014: Estimates of Twenty-First-Century Flood Risk in the Pacific Northwest Based on
Regional Climate Model Simulations. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 1881–1899.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0137.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0137.1
FORESTS---------------------------------------------------Co-occurring Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir respond differently to environmental factors
associated with future climate change: A suite of recent publications in Forest Ecology and
Management and an article in Journal of Biogeography address the different ways in which
locally co-occurring Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir respond to environmental factors such as
CO2 enrichment,
Soule and Knapp analyzed patterns of water use efficiency for co-occurring Ponderosa pine and
Douglas fir from 1850 to the present. They found that both species have increased
exponentially increasing rates of water use efficiency but that increases were greater for
Ponderosa pine and that the relationship between water use efficiency and basal area
increment differed between the two species.
Soule, P.T. & P.A. Knapp. 2014. Analyses of intrinsic water-use efficiency indicate performance
differences of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir in response to CO2 enrichment. Journal of
Biogeography. DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12408 online: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12408/abstract
Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir trees are subject to many different genetic factors controlling
traits like cold hardiness, pest tolerance and growth. These traits are shaped by natural
selection to adapt them to a given geographic location, with certain constraints resulting in
trade-offs between attributes such as growth potential and cold hardiness. This study attempted
to improve understanding of the ecological basis of genetic diversity to help assess the impacts
of climate change on the adaptedness of populations. Its results suggest that winter cold is the
most important factor determining growth potential for both species. As climate changes, trees
will be less suited for their environments, but knowledge about genetic suitability of current
populations for conditions projected to exist in the future will help aid forest management.
Comparative genetic responses to climate in the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga
menziesii: Clines in growth potential. Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Leites, Laura P.; St Clair, J. Bradley;
Jaquish, Barry C.; Saenz-Romero, Cuauhtemoc; Lopez-Upton, Javier; Joyce, Dennis G. 2014.
Forest Ecology and Management. 324: 138-146. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46901.
Realized climate niche analysis suggests that the impacts of projected climate change will be
greater for Ponderosa pine than for Douglas fir and greater for inland varieties of both species
than for coastal varieties.
Comparative genetic responses to climate for the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga
menziesii: Realized climate niches. Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Jaquish, Barry C.; Lopez-Upton, Javier;
Saenz-Romero, Cuauhtemoc; St Clair, J. Bradley; Leites, Laura P.; Joyce, Dennis G. 2014. Forest
Ecology and Management. 324: 126-137. Online: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46900.
Analysis using climate projections suggests that some coastal forests contain varieties of
Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir with genotypes likely suitable for the future climate. In contrast,
many inland forests will likely require either introduction of better-suited species or conversion
to better-adapted genotypes. For some forests, natural reproduction should be suitable, but
most lands will require forest renewal to maintain forest health, growth, and productivity.
Comparative genetic responses to climate in the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga
menziesii: Reforestation. Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Jaquish, Barry C.; Saenz-Romero, Cuauhtemoc;
Joyce, Dennis G.; Leites, Laura P.; St Clair, J. Bradley; Lopez-Upton, Javier. 2014. Forest Ecology
and Management. 324: 147-157. Online: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46902.
Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings. Sample,
V. Alaric; Bixler, R. Patrick, eds. 2014. Proceedings. RMRSP-71. Fort Collins, CO: US Department
of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. 494 p. NOTE: This publication is
available only online. In these collected papers, leading scientists, resource managers and policy
specialists explore the implications of climate change and other manifestations of the
Anthropocene on the management of wildlife habitat, biodiversity, water, and other resources,
with particular attention to the effects of wildfire. Recommendations include the need for a
supporting institutional, legal, and policy framework that is not just different but more dynamic,
to facilitate resource management adaptation and preparedness in a period of accelerating
environmental change. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p071.html.
Drought-triggered western spruce budworm outbreaks in the Interior Pacific Northwest:
Western spruce budworms are considered the most destructive defoliator in western North
America. This study analyzed patterns of their outbreak in Douglas fir forests from central
Oregon to western Montana over the last three centuries in relation to regional drought history.
The authors found that outbreaks tend to occur near the end of droughts, indicating that
climate is an important driver of outbreaks and that outbreaks will likely become more frequent
in eth future.
Flower, A.; Gavin, D.G.; Heyerdahl, E.K.; Parsons, R.A.; Cohn, G.M. 2014. Drought-triggered
western spruce budworm outbreaks in the Interior Pacific Northwest: A multi-century
dendrochronological record. Forest Ecology and Management. 324: 16-27. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/47005.
Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North
American forests: In recent years, the mountain pine beetle has impacted 8.9 million hectares
of forests in the western United States. Historically a common occurrence in western forests,
particularly in lodgepole and ponderosa pine, the magnitude and extent of recent outbreaks
have exceeded past events since written records are available and have occurred in areas where
outbreaks were less common. This special section contains 10 articles concerning different
aspects of the biology, ecology, and management of mountain pine beetle. A number of
relevant topics are reviewed and available literature synthesized.
Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.;
Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A. 2014. Forest Science. 60(3):
Mountain pine beetle, a major disturbance agent in US Western coniferous forests: A synthesis
of the state of knowledge [Research In Review]. Negron, Jose F.; Fettig, Christopher J. 2014.
Journal of Forestry. 112(3): 257. Online: http://www. treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46618.
Regional forest landscape restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an
uncertain future in the northern Rocky Mountains: This article describes a decision support
tool developed by the USDA Forest Service Northern Region in 2010 to aid integrated
restoration planning and help managers of national forests prioritize restoration opportunities
using increasingly scarce financial resources. The tool is intended to be used while planning
silvicultural practices and fire management directed at restoring the forests of the Northern
Region to a more resilient condition.
Bollenbacher, Barry L.; Graham, Russell T.; Reynolds, Keith M. 2014. Regional forest landscape
restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an uncertain future in the northern
Rocky Mountains. Journal of Forestry. 112(5): 474-483. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46888.
Resistance and resilience: A conceptual framework for silviculture: This study introduces a
conceptual framework to differentiate resistance and resilience, denote appropriate scales, and
establish the context for evaluation. Two different disturbances, wildfires and spruce beetle
outbreaks, are used as examples to illustrate the utility of the framework. The conceptual
framework suggests that attempts to build stand or landscape resistance to spruce beetle
outbreaks will ultimately be unsuccessful and instead emphasizes alternative goals. Ultimately
the framework should be broadly applicable to many kinds of disturbance in various forest
types.
DeRose, Robert J.; Long, James N. Resistance and resilience: A conceptual framework for
silviculture. 2014. Forest Science. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5849/forsci.13-507. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46448.
FIRE----------------------------------------------Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire severity, and postfire tree regeneration in
the US Northern Rockies: This study investigated the potential relationship between bark beetle
outbreak and ecological severity of wildfire. Surprisingly the authors found no relation of recent
(2001-2010) beetle outbreak to subsequent fire severity. Instead fire severity was driven
primarily by extreme burning conditions (weather) and topography.
Harvey, B.J.; Donato, D.C.; Turner, M.G. 2014. Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire
severity, and postfire tree regeneration in the US Northern Rockies. PNAS. Online:
http://www.eenews.net/assets/2014/09/29/document_pm_02.pdf
A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011: This project represents an
attempt to acquire, standardize, error-check, compile, scrub, and evaluate the completeness of
US federal, state, and local wildfire records from 1992-2011 for the national, interagency Fire
Program Analysis (FPA) application. The resulting FPA Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA FOD)
includes nearly 1.6 million records from the 20-year period, with information about location,
discovery date, and final fire size. While necessarily incomplete in some aspects, the database is
intended to facilitate fairly high-resolution geospatial analysis of US wildfire activity over the
past two decades, based on available information from the authoritative systems of record.
Short, K.C. 2014. A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011. Earth System
Science Data. 6: 1-27. Online: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45689.
A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of
fires: This study analyzed the effect of random stand-replacing fire on the implications of various
harvest and mature forest core area decisions for forests. Results indicate that integrating the
occurrence of stand-replacing fire into forest harvest scheduling models can improve the quality
of long-term spatially explicit forest plans.
Wei, Yu; Bevers, Michael; Nguyen, Dung; Belval, Erin. 2014. A spatial stochastic programming
model for timber and core area management under risk of fires. Forest Science. 60(1): 85-96.
Online: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46563.
Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges: Three factors - climate
change, fire exclusion, and antecedent disturbance, collectively referred to as the "mega-fire
triangle" - likely contribute to today's mega-fires. Some characteristics of mega-fires may
emulate historical fire regimes and can therefore sustain healthy fire-prone ecosystems, but
other attributes decrease ecosystem resiliency. A good example of a program that seeks to
mitigate mega-fires is located in Western Australia, where prescribed burning reduces wildfire
intensity while conserving ecosystems. Fire and forest managers should recognize that megafires will be a part of future wildland fire regimes and should develop strategies to reduce their
undesired impacts.
Stephens, Scott L.; Burrows, Neil; Buyantuyev, Alexander; Gray, Robert W.; Keane, Robert E.;
Kubian, Rick; Liu, Shirong; Seijo, Francisco; Shu, Lifu; Tolhurst, Kevin G.; Ivan Wagtendonk, Jan
W. 2014. Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges. Frontiers in
Ecology and the Environment. 12: 115-122. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/47021.
Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression
expenditure models: In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years
has resulted in increased pressure to balance the cost, benefits, and risks of wildfire
management. This book examines the state-of-the-art in the economics of wildfire
management. The introductory chapter presents the broad goal of the book: to take stock of
research to-date on the economics of wildfire management and examine a way forward for
answering remaining research questions. Subsequent chapters review existing research, present
new empirical analyses of fire management expenditures, and examine potential applications of
expenditure models for decision making.
Hand, Michael S.; Gebert, Krista M.; Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.;
Zhou, Mo. 2014. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of
suppression expenditure models. Springer Briefs In Fire. New York, NY: Springer. 71 p. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46341.
Vulnerability of Bull Trout in the Face of Wildfires and Climate Change: In the Pacific
Northwest, climate change is anticipated to result in increased frequency, severity, and size of
wildfires. Large and severe wildfires can lead to higher stream temperatures, affecting fish that
rely on cold water to survive, such as the threatened bull trout. To address this issue, Oregon
State University, U.S. Forest Service, and USGS researchers modeled population vulnerability of
bull trout in the Wenatchee River, WA under current and future climate and fire scenarios.
Analyses showed that local management, including reducing fire size and removing barriers to
enhance fish population connectivity, can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to
climate change. The Wenatchee River basin represents a unique configuration of threats, but
many of the fundamental processes modeled occur across the range of bull trout and lessons
learned may be useful in other locations.
Falke, J.A., Flitcroft, R.L., Dunham, J.B., McNyset, K.M., Hessburg, P.F., Reeves, G.H., 2014,
Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.
DOI- 10.1139/cjfas-2014-0098: Canadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, p.
online. [Details]
Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in
the contiguous Western United States: Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large
wildfires across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century. The
probability of large wildfires will likely increase under multiple climate scenarios. Modelng
suggests the largest increases will be in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific
Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of large
wildfires depend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited
areas such as the Pacific Northwest show greater increases in large fire probability than fuellimited systems like the Western Great Basin. These results provide a quantitative foundation to
help mitigate the effects of large wildfires.
Stavros, E.N.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.K. 2014. Regional projections of the
likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western
United States. Climatic Change.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1229-6
DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6
LAND USE-------------------------------------------Rangelands as Carbon Sinks to Mitigate Climate Change: A Review:
Rangelands cover large areas in the United States and, when properly managed and maintained,
can help mitigate climate change by sequestering substantial amounts of atmospheric carbon
dioxide in the form of soil organic carbon. The voluntary carbon market was a good approach
for stimulating carbon sequestration on rangelands, however the causes of failures should be
revisited, addressed and necessary amendment to policies made that will drive environmental
restoration and conservation.
http://omicsonline.org/open-access/rangelands-as-carbon-sinks-to-mitigate-climate-change-areview-2157-7617.1000221.php?aid=30959
McDermot C, Elavarthi S (2014) Rangelands as Carbon Sinks to Mitigate Climate Change: A
Review. J Earth Sci Clim Change 5:221. doi: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000221
TRIBAL AND INDIGENOUS PEOPLES MATTERS-----------------------------------------EPA Grants to Drought-Stricken Southwest Tribes Total $43 Million: With 44 California tribes
set to run out of water within the next six months, much of the recent spate of annual funding
for tribes within Region 9 of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is earmarked for
water-supply projects. @2014 Indian Country Today Media Network, LLC,
10/23/14. http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/ 2014/ 10/ 23/ epa- grants- droughtstricken- southwest- tribes- total- 43- million- 1574 96
TAKING ACTION-----------------------------------------------Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation
Plans: This publication provides much needed guidance for conducting risk-based climate
change vulnerability assessments and developing adaptation action plans. The workbook helps
users to identify, analyze and prioritize climate change risks. In developing an action plan, it
guides users to address their most pressing risks and find appropriate responses. Climate
change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present. By
using the workbook and addressing climate change in their systems, users will be ready to
protect environmental resources, public safety, and infrastructure. Learn more about the Being
Prepared for Climate Change workbook tools to help increase resiliency and tackle climate
change in your own place. http://www2.epa.gov/cre/risk-based-adaptation
Situating adaptation: How governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence
adaptation in the Rocky Mountains. Wyborn, Carina; Yung, Laurie; Murphy, Daniel; Williams,
Daniel R. 2014. Regional Environmental Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0663-3. Online:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46725.
More than 100 Washington businesses call for strong action on Climate Change by signing The
Washington Business Climate Declaration: The Washington Business Climate Declaration
(www.climatedeclaration.us/wa) was developed by several Washington companies seeking to
illustrate the state business community’s strong support for taking action to address climate
change at the state and regional level and to mobilize strong business support to advance
Washington’s economic and energy security. Starting with support from over 80 companies, the
Washington Business Climate Declaration was developed as a rolling call to action, urging the
public, policymakers and other business leaders to seize the opportunity to advance the
Washington’s economic and energy security by tackling climate change. For more information
visit: http://www.ceres.org/declaration/sign/washington-business-climatedeclaration/washington-business-climate-declaration-faqs
NASA Program Enhances Climate Resilience at Agency Facilities:
http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-program-enhances-climate-resilience-atagency-facilities/#.VFaioPZOyY8
CLIMATE AND WEATHER REPORTS AND SERVICES---------------------------Worst MegaDrought in 1,000 years?: Using the North American Drought Atlas, a 2,005-year
record derived from tree-ring chronologies that reconstructs drought and precipitation patterns,
researchers have found that the 1934 drought that covered more than 70% of western North
America and was 30% more intense than the second most severe drought in the region, which
happened in 1580…. The cause is attributed to a high-pressure ridge that blocked wet weather
from California and the Northwest…. A similar, but more persistent, atmospheric pattern was at
work off the California coast this past winter, moving storms north, and research is tracing this
recent event to human-made warming of the western Pacific Ocean.… [Hannah Hoag, Oct 16,
2014, Nature News, doi:10.1038/nature.2014.16157 synthesizes four journal articles]:
http://www.nature.com/news/us-dust-bowl-unrivalled-in-past-1-000-years-1.16157
National Geographic October 2014 Feature Story on Drought in the West:
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/west-snow-fail/
SPECIAL REPORTS/ ANNOUNCEMENTS-----------------------------------------IPCC's "Synthesis Report" and "Summary for Policymakers”, were released Nov 2. The
synthesis and summary integrate the main points from about 3000 pages of material contained
in the IPCC's three assessment reports issued over the past year. The key purpose of the
Synthesis Report and Summary for Policy Makers is to inform upcoming climate change
meetings by world leaders. "The IPCC summary states clearly that global warming is happening,
that humans have caused it, that it is already dangerous, and that the warming trend could be
irreversible. It makes it clear that urgent emissions reductions are required in the very near
future to keep warming below two degrees Celsius to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
These include extreme weather, rising sea levels, and increased heat waves, flooding and
droughts. The report also suggests climate change could aggravate violent conflicts and refugee
problems and have a negative effect on food production.
The link below is for a short, user-friendly description:
http://www.dw.de/un-warns-of-irreversible-climate-change/a-18027685
Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington: A
report was recently released on the largest climate change adaptation effort on federal lands to
date. The project was led by the U.S. Forest Service's Portland-based Pacific Northwest
Research Station and represents collaboration among members of the North Cascadia
Adaptation Partnership, including the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, the OkanoganWenatchee National Forest, the North Cascades National Park Complex and Mount Rainier
National Park. The UW's Climate Impacts Group provided scientific expertise:
http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/47131 For more information, contact Snover at 206-2210222 or aksnover@uw.edu and Peterson at 206-732-7812 or wild@uw.edu.
The LCC Network has released its latest strategic plan: The plan articulates a path for the next
five years to achieving the LCC Network’s vision and mission: www.lccnetwork.org/strategicplan.
The plan was distributed on Monday, October 20th and advertised at the National Workshop on
Large Landscape Conservation, October 23-24 in Washington, D.C.
Federal climate change plans: 38 federal agencies reveal their vulnerabilities to climate change
— and what they’re doing about it. "The Obama administration published a small library's
worth of climate change documents in late October, outlining 38 federal agencies'
vulnerabilities to global warming and how they will address them- as well as a separate and
even larger set of new government-wide plans to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions and
achieve new targets for sustainability."
Links to all the federal climate plans are available
at: http://www.performance.gov/node/3406/view?view=public#supporting-info.
The Department of Interior Climate Change Adaptation Plan is available
here: http://www.doi.gov/greening/sustainability_plan/upload/2014_DOI_Climate_Change_Ad
aptation_Plan.pdf.
The USDA Climate Change Adaptation Plan is available
here: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/adaptation/adaptation_plan.htm
The EPA Adaptation Implementation Plans are available
here: http://epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/fed-programs/Final-EPA-Adaptationplans.html
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the third edition of 'Climate Change
Indicators in the United States.' The report pulls together observed data on key measures of
our environment, including U.S. and global temperature and precipitation, ocean heat and
ocean acidity, sea level, length of growing season, and many others. With 30 indicators that
include over 80 maps and graphs showing long-term trends, the report demonstrates that
climate change is already affecting our environment and our society. The third edition of the
Indicators report includes four new indicators: Lyme disease, heating and cooling degree days,
wildfires, and water level and temperature in the Great Lakes. In addition, the report adds four
new features that connect observed data records to local communities and areas of interest,
including cherry blossom bloom dates in Washington D.C., timing of ice breakup in two Alaskan
rivers, temperature and drought in the Southwest, and land loss along the mid-Atlantic coast.
More information about the Climate Change Indicators report:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html
USGCRP annual report: http://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/files/Our-ChangingPlanet-FY-2015-full-res.pdfmailto:http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/NW-CSCCommunication-Strategy-ADOPTED-20MAR13-2.pdf