WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
___________________________________________
RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
TWENTY-FIRST SESSION
RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 8.1
(8.IX.2015)
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ITEM 8.1
ST DENIS, LA REUNION
Original: ENGLISH
28 SEPTEMBER – 2 OCTOBER 2015
LINKAGE WITH WMO REGIONAL PROJECTS
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document briefly reports on the progress of the SWFDP, and present issues
and suggests increased cooperation of the SWFDP for the Southern Africa region
with the Tropical Cyclone Programme in the Southwest Indian Ocean.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Committee is invited to note the information in this document and to consider ways
that may lead to strengthening the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning services in the region
in connection with SWFDP.
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RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 8.1, p.2
Draft text for inclusion in general summary
8.1
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
Background
8.1.1 The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) is carried out by
WMO/CBS to further explore and enhance the use of outputs of existing numerical weather
prediction (NWP) systems, including ensemble prediction systems (EPS). It contributes to capacity
building by helping developing countries to access and improve their use of existing NWP products
for improving warnings of hazardous weather conditions and weather-related hazards. The
SWFDP is built on the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) programme in
collaboration with the Public Weather Services (PWS) programme to improve severe weather
forecasting and warning services. The expected outcomes include achieving longer lead-times and
reliability for alerting the public and national disaster management and civil protection authorities.
8.1.2 The SWFDP has successfully improved severe weather forecasting through improved
access to, and more effective use of outputs of numerical weather prediction systems for weather
forecasters, who in turn have improved the delivery of warning services in many developing
countries. This is achieved by helping developing countries in particular to have available and
implement the best possible use of existing NWP products through a ‘Cascading forecasting
process’, from Global Centres to Regional Centres to National Centres, for improving warnings of
hazardous weather conditions and weather-related hazards. Global-scale products, as well as
data and information provided by other regional centres, are integrated and synthesized by a
designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) or an agreed Regional Forecast
Support Centre (RFSC), which, in turn, provides daily guidance for short-range (days 1 and 2) and
medium-range (out to day-5) on specified hazardous phenomena (e.g. heavy rain, damaging
waves, etc) to the National Meteorological Centres of participating countries in the region.
The SWFDP phases and goals
8.1.3 The SWFDP is implemented in 4 phases: the Phase 1 is the planning phase which focuses
on identification of participating Member Countries and of Global and Regional Centres; Phase II is
the demonstration phase. Phase III is the evaluation phase, typically, one year after the entering
into demonstration. Phase IV is when the Region take ownership of the project and sustain
operation, training. WMO Secretariat will still be assisting if required.
8.1.4 The SWFDP Goals are to improve the ability of NMCs to forecast severe weather events; to
improve the lead time of alerting of these events; to improve interaction of NMCs with Disaster
Management and Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPA) before and during events; to identify gaps
and areas for improvements and; to improve the skill of products from GDPFS Centres through
feedback from NMCs.
SWFDP global implementation
8.1.5 The SWFDP has proven to be successfully improving severe weather forecasting in several
developing countries including least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing
States (SIDSs) through improved access to, and more effective use of outputs of numerical
weather prediction systems for weather forecasters, who in turn have improved the delivery of
warning services. It represents a systematic and practical approach for building capacity, and for
transferring new knowledge and skills. The first ever SWFDP regional subproject was started in
South-Eastern Africa in 2006 with participation of just five countries. The subproject was expanded
in 2009 to include all 16 countries in Southern Africa and to span all seasons and a number of
meteorological and related hazards (heavy rain, strong winds, large waves, cold temperatures,
etc.). After successful completion of its demonstration and evaluation, the subproject entered into
sustained operational mode (Phase IV) in 2012. The SWFDP regional subprojects for the South
Pacific Island States and Eastern Africa countries are in the full demonstration phase with main
RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 8.1, p.3
focus on heavy rains, strong winds, and damaging waves since 2011 and 2013. The development
of SWFDP regional subprojects for Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal regions has been in
progress since 2011 and 2012 respectively. The development of SWFDP in Central Asia has also
started this year with a technical planning workshop in Almaty, Kazakhstan in April 2015. The
initiation of SWFDP regional subprojects in Western Africa is also planned this year.
8.1.6 The SWFDP could be viewed as a starting point for developing and establishing a national
severe weather warning programme for each Member of WMO, and a vehicle to assess the gaps
in the Basic Systems for effective weather warnings services.
8.1.5 In view of the successes of the SWFDP, and the importance and challenges of the future of
SWFDP for sustaining and enlarging the benefits for Members, the Commission for Basic Systems
(CBS-15) endorsed the establishment of a Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project
Office, as well as a SWFDP Trust Fund to sustain and expand present efforts and results.
SWFDP – Southern Africa Project and Integration with FFGS
8.1.6 The SWFDP in Southern Africa has been implemented successfully and is now maintained
in its Phase 4 for 16 participating countries, i.e., in continuous development phase of sustainable
activities. The 16 participating countries are: Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Malawi, Mauritius, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Lesotho, Seychelles, South Africa,
Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Comoros.
8.1.7 The Committee recalled that Congress-16 (2011) approved a vision for the SWFDP as an
end-to-end, cross-programme collaborative activity led by the GDPFS and that the SWFDP should
engage all WMO Programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydrometeorological
hazards, from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services, education and
training, and to the transfer of relevant promising research outputs into operations.
8.1.9 In 2014, integration of SWFDP-Southern Africa and Southern Africa Region Flash Flood
Guidance System (SARFFGS) was initiated to enhance user interfaces and expand the suite of
products available to forecasters using the two systems. For this purpose the RSMC training desk
(20-28 October 2014), SARFFGS training event (29-31 October 2014) and the annual two-week
SWFDP-Southern Africa training workshop (10-14 November 2014) were held back-to-back in
Pretoria. The RSMC training desk was attended by 2 forecasters from Lesotho and Swaziland,
who also participated in SARFFGS training which was attended by 8 forecasters and 2
hydrologists form seven out of nine countries within SARFFGS domain. The annual two-week
SWFDP training workshop was attended by 16 forecasters (including 4 forecasters from SARFFGS
training) and 11 public weather staff (PWS) from fourteen out of sixteen countries involved in
SWFDP-Southern Africa. The integration of SWFDP-Southern Africa and SARFFGS aims to
support end-to-end early warning system (EWS) for severe weather and flash flood warnings as
well as for emergency preparedness and response to warnings at all relevant levels (national to
local) to minimize the potential impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological hazards in Southern
Africa.
Synergy with Tropical Cyclone Programme, Southwest Indian Ocean
8.1.9 The Committee noted the active and important operational role RSMC La Réunion for TC
forecasting that has been linked with the SWFDF development for several years. In particular the
NMSs of the island states in the Southwest Indian Ocean have expressed appreciation for having
routine access to a set of relevant outputs of the Aladin-Réunion LAM outputs through the SWFDP
RSMC Pretoria Website. Continued close cooperation between RSMC La Réunion with RSMC
Pretoria in relation to SWFDP is highly valued, so that TCC members will be assured of consistent
operational forecasting guidance.
8.1.10 The Committee encouraged the Secretariat to continue and enhance cooperation among
relevant WMO programmes for carrying out recurring technical training events related to
RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 8.1, p.4
forecasting methods and warning services, including those supported by GDPFS, PWS, TCP,
WWRP, ETR, and regional programmes.
8.1.11 The Committee agreed to examine its Operational Plan and Technical Plan for the
Southwest Indian Ocean, in collaboration with the SWFDP-Southern Africa project management
team (presently known as the RTIT) and its RP4IP, with the goal of identifying and developing
suitable operational and planning linkages in these Plans for adoption at its next session.