FLAG A Business Case: INDIA INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMME Intervention Summary What support will the UK provide? Up to £38 million over 5 years (2013-2018), in partnership with India’s leading infrastructure finance company, IDFC Ltd: £36 million as returnable capital (debt), invested in infrastructure projects in India’s eight low income states; £2 million as technical assistance, improving project design to attract private investment and adhere to international standards, monitoring and evaluation Why is UK support required? HMG and Government of India (GoI) have agreed to test the use of returnable capital to promote private investment into infrastructure projects that will reduce poverty in the eight low income states of India, involving partnerships with GoI-sponsored intermediaries. Poor infrastructure, particularly power and transport, is cited by domestic and international firms as the single largest barrier to doing business in India. A third of the 1.5 billion people without electricity and a fourth of the 2.5 billion people without sanitation live in India. Infrastructure projects also directly generate important short-term and long-term employment opportunities. The Planning Commission of India estimates that infrastructure bottlenecks take 1.5 to 2 percentage points off GDP growth every year – and that the majority of the required investment to finance infrastructure gaps has to come from the private sector. Domestic banks have reached or are close to reaching their credit limits on infrastructure projects and attracting international finance is crucial for India, especially the low income states. Unfortunately, while India’s progressive states have done well in attracting private investment, the eight poorest states1 of India, where 65% of India’s poor reside, are perceived as more risky by investors, with consequent implications on the level of enterprise development, job creation and tax revenues. Agricultural storage and logistics, renewable energy, transport and core urban services such as water and sewerage that are considered ‘pro-poor’ have been especially neglected. This programme has identified these services based on their potential to deliver benefits that are propoor, especially to women and girlsi, in the poorest states by delivering improvements in the business environment, whether for small scale farmers (essentially micro-enterprises) or larger scale industrial developers who will have a requirement for skilled and low-skilled labour. The reluctance to invest in these states/sectors is considered to be due to the lack of experience and the perception that political risk is higher. However, some of the poorer states are showing higher growth rates in the last few years and political leadership is becoming more development oriented. DFID India believes this is the right time for capital infusion into these states. Whilst there are international agencies such as IFC, DEG, CDC as well as domestic Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), aiming to address infrastructure gaps through private investment, none of them are currently focussing on the low income states and/or these pro- poor infrastructure sectors. DFID is actively pursuing options with IFC, CDC and the non-sovereign arm of AsDB about co-investment opportunities with DFID at both partnership and project levels in the pro-poor subsectors in the low income states. Detailed consideration of potential partnerships and available resources has suggested that we should initially design two separate initiatives for debt and equity instruments. DFID India identified one of India’s leading infrastructure debt specialists, the 1 Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal 1 Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC Ltd) as a strong potential partner based on its systems; the quality of its team; experience and its pipeline of investment-ready projects. This Business Case proposes to commit up to £38 million: £36 million towards a concessional line of credit to IDFC to provide early stage, long-term debt to pro-poor infrastructure projects in the low income states, in turn attracting other lenders and investors. For example, investment in an agricultural storage and logistics hub in Bihar is under consideration by the IDFC. Wastage of food (up to 50%) is high across India, particularly in Bihar, and farmers are unable to obtain a good price for their produce. The low margins in agricultural commodities implies that high rates cannot be charged for provision of storage –innovative models, with multiple revenue streams, e.g., from provision of storage facilities, food processing and logistics support, are needed to make to make this profitable. By definition, these models are not yet proven making the risk higher. The project ddeveloper has raised £1.7 million but requires a further £1.7 million. Capital from DFID will encourage IDFC to lend the remaining amount. The facility is expected to improve farmer incomes, generate jobs, reduce food waste and yield tax revenue. £2 million to buy expertise that helps improve the design of infrastructure projects; improve the quality of environmental, social and governance standards applied by IDFC to investment proposals; conduct monitoring and evaluations that generate knowledge about what works best; and disseminate this to other investors and infrastructure companies. In addition, there is a need to improve the policy environment for infrastructure projects, and support development of state government capacities to facilitate such projects. DFID India is already undertaking programmes on this with partner states. However, a separate technical assistance project that supports improvements in the business environment for infrastructure will be designed. There is strong HMG interest in partnering with India on infrastructure. The high-level Britain India Infrastructure Group, announced by PM Cameron and PM Singh in August 2010 has begun a dialogue on partnerships for mobilising foreign investment and tackling the skills deficit in India’s infrastructure sector. Improvements in the status of infrastructure in the eight poorest states will help not only the poor people in these states but also generate investment opportunities and jobs for Indians and internationally, including the UK. What are the expected results? The programme is expected to directly result in: i) At least 10 new private sector-led (including PPP) projects. ii) At least £120 million of additional private investment mobilised for pro-poor infrastructure services. iii) An estimated 280 000 people get access to new/improved infrastructure services such as electricity, sewerage, and transport. iv) An estimated 1 500 long term jobs and 3 000 short term jobs generated directly. Monitoring and Evaluation The project will have a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework including a computerised management information system (MIS). DFID will undertake annual Output-toPurpose Reviews to assess progress, a mid-term review in year three, and an end-term review to review to assess whether the targets in the logframe have been achieved and the cost-benefit assumptions outlined in the economic appraisal have been confirmed. DFID will commission evaluations (up to £1.5m) to assess impact and attribution. 2 Business Case Strategic Case A. Context and need for a DFID intervention Set the scene and provide the overarching context for why DFID is doing this Shortage of infrastructure is an obstacle to economic growth, the challenge is more severe in India’s eight low income states 1. The shortage of infrastructure in the world’s poorest countries is a major and growing obstacle to economic growth and the elimination of poverty. The World Bank estimates that in developing countries, 1.5 billion people live without electricity, 1 billion have no access to all-weather roads, and 2.5 billion have no access to sanitationii. India’s share of the global burden is substantial: some 450 million people in India live without electricity and more than 600 million have no access to sanitation. Within India, indicators in the eight low-income states2 are consistently worse, e.g. 40% of the population in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa have access to all-weather roads compared to the 60% national average. Economic infrastructure such as markets, warehouses and transport remain inadequate; restricting growth across the board. Poor infrastructure is cited by firms as the single largest barrier to doing business in Indiaiii. As a result, private enterprise is restricted, leading to fewer jobs, less services and tax revenues. 2. India recognises infrastructure as a serious issue. Current thinking on the 12th Five Year Plan suggests that investment of $1 trillion will be needed over 2012-17. Over the 11th plan period, 2006-11, India increased its infrastructure investments to just below $100 per capita per year (compare this to Brazil which is at $600). Per capita investment in India’s low income states is significantly worse, at one-third to one-half of the better off states for well over a decade. Finance requirements at the aggregate level remain an enormous challenge for the infrastructure sector. About 30% of all foreign direct investment into India is infrastructure-related but the global economic slowdown has reduced the overall size of all FDI from a high of $43.4 billion in 2008 to $24.2 billion in 2010iv. Domestic banks have reached or are close to reaching their exposure limits on infrastructure projects, and invest afresh only as their deployed capital is returned or if they obtain new capital. Overall, even if India was to achieve its highly ambitious 12th plan target, per capita investment will remain woefully inadequate. 3. The imbalance overall, as well as across sectors, is worse in the low income states which have been unable to attract any serious private investment beyond a few national highway contracts. Roughly, a third of India’s PPP projects are in the eight low income states (28.2%) v, even though these contribute 62% of the overall populationvi. Targeted infrastructure projects can make growth more inclusive 4. In terms of allocation of infrastructure investment, a disproportionate amount of private investment has flowed into sub-sectors that are clearly profitable, such as telecommunications, thermal power stations, national transport projects and gas pipelines; as well as a handful of prestige projects like Delhi and Hyderabad airports and Mumbai’s sea-link bridge. Public investment has been targeted at sub-sectors that are unlikely to attract private investment, e.g. rural roads, toilets, urban roads and housing for the poorest. 5. Apart from that there are sub-sectors that are vital for growth and poverty reduction which could attract substantial private capital but are not able to, due to: limited successful business models; lack of well-structured PPP deals; competition with more mature sub-sectors for private capital; weak business environment; lack of knowledge and expertise in how these could be structured to 2 Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan 3 deliver a return; and the risk-averse nature of mainstream private capital. This programme has identified four infrastructure sub-sectors (agricultural infrastructure; energy services; transport, mainly road; and urban services) based largely on their potential to deliver economic growth and services that are pro-poor in the poorest states, as well as their difficulties in attracting private finance. According to Mahajan & Guptavii, “For India’s rural poor, strengthened infrastructure facilities would facilitate the development of small enterprises, agro-based activities, and markets, and increase off-farm and non-farm employment opportunities”. 6. Infrastructure projects deliver services at the door of households (urban water and sanitation, decentralised rural energy services etc.) can offer greatest prospects for direct poverty targeting, over infrastructure projects that deliver non-targeted public assets like roads and street lighting. Regardless, public assets such as electrification and road availability are known to have a significant effect on poverty reduction as established by an ADB studyviii. The benefits include improved economic growth and access to employment, improved access to public services such as health and education facilities, increased personal safety, better access to common property resources by the poor and enhanced participation in public work. Whilst development of agricultural infrastructure (such as improved storage and logistical facilities for agriculture) will not directly benefit individual households, it will benefit farmers and reduce wastage of food grains (20-30% food grains harvested in India are reportedly wasted due to inadequate storage facilitiesix). It will also reduce distress sale and ensure farmers get better prices for their produce. This increased income maybe used to leverage better health and educational services and contribute to overall well-being of small and medium farm households. 7. From a gender perspective, the analysis of Indian women’s entrepreneurship and economic participationx has established a clear relationship between better quality infrastructure and female entry into industry/enterprise. Benefits for women include greater mobility and access to public services such as health facilities and markets in district centres. Where infrastructure can be targeted at household level, certain kinds of infrastructure services will disproportionately benefit women and girls for example, water, toilets, and drainagexi leading to better health outcomes, reduction in time spent on non-productive activities and improved attendance at school. 8. The main poverty reducing benefits from this programme are expected through infrastructure services delivering improvements in the business environment, whether for small scale farmers (essentially micro-enterprises) or larger scale industrial developers who will have a requirement for skilled and low-skilled labour. A further positive impact on poor people is through short-term and long-term employment opportunities generated by the construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure projects. India faces significant barriers to infrastructure investment 9. The market and institutional failures that discourage private investment into low income states, especially in some sub-sectors are: limited availability of local currency finance, with banks utilising their infrastructure limits in the more profitable sub-sectors in the developed states; absence of a systematic approach to credit rating infrastructure projects; lack of rupee denominated guarantees; high front-end cost and uncertainty attached to project development, with multiple investors required to agree, leading to fewer deals; difficulties relating to policies, regulations, and institutions, with land acquisition and environmental clearances particular problems; lack of locally available capacity and skills in both the public and private sectors; difficulty setting fair tariffs that balance affordability for poorer customers against generating sufficient income to cover costs. 4 10. On the positive side, India has a high savings rate, deep financial markets and a good track record in channelling funds to infrastructure. Construction and allied activities are among the early growth sectors in an underdeveloped economy, in contrast to high value addition manufacturing or services. The development of such growth sectors along with infrastructure provision is one of the necessary conditions required for kick starting the virtuous spiral of developing the private sector in the low income states. The government, central as well as state, has shown great commitment to tackling this issue. There are already almost a thousand public-private partnerships underway, leading to several models being tried out and substantial lesson learning and capacity development across India. The challenge is to demonstrate the viability of infrastructure projects in India’s low income states; identifying feasible projects in sectors with the greatest potential to directly or indirectly reduce poverty, e.g. transport; decentralised, clean energy; urban services; agricultural storage and logistics. 11. Infrastructure development needs long term finance, in the form of debt, equity and guarantees. Debt finance typically constitutes 70-80 per cent of project value and thus makes up the most substantial financing gap in projects reaching project closure. This is especially true since loan tenors beyond seven years are not generally available and, if offered, are at unattractively high interest rates. Moreover, domestic banks have regulatory limits to infrastructure lending, making alternative capital an imperative to ensure projects can get off the ground. Provision of long term debt, which is heavily under-supplied in India, is important in mobilising short term debt from other creditors. Why DFID intervention is justified 12. There is strong HMG interest in partnering with India on infrastructure. The high-level Britain India Infrastructure Group, announced by PM Cameron and PM Singh in August 2010 has begun a dialogue on partnerships for mobilising foreign investment and tackling the skills deficit in India’s infrastructure sector. DFID’s contribution will be an important HMG response to shared UK-India goals in this area. There is strong HMG interest in Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDFs), which invest mainly in brownfield rather than greenfield projects. Benefits through IDFs for the low income states would be largely indirect and achieved by tackling the national challenge India faces in mobilising new (foreign and domestic low-risk) capital for infrastructure. FCO and BIS see important market opportunities for UK firms specialising in infrastructure delivery and financial sector services. HMT has been providing technical assistance to the Ministry of Finance on PPPs. 13. A number of development organisations (e.g. World Bank, AsDB, DEG) are supporting private sector led infrastructure programmes but all of these are India wide. World Bank and AsDB investments have focussed on routing capital through public channels e.g. the national rural roads programme, with limited investment being channelled to the private sector. None of the DFIs focus on the low income states or the less developed infrastructure sub-sectors – as a result, the actual projects benefitting from support tend to be in the developed states in mature sub-sectors. The nearest exception is the IFC which has set itself annual targets for investing in a variety of businesses in these states, but has no targets on infrastructure. CDC has invested in IDFC’s third PE Fund i.e. where there is unlikely to be any serious push in the low income states. CDC does not have any immediate plans to invest in infrastructure in the low income states. PIDG is developing a good portfolio of infrastructure projects in India but its global mandate currently limits its debt instrument to projects in sub-Saharan Africa (the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund). 14. A key element of this programme will involve ongoing discussions with DFIs about the prospects of them co-investing with DFID either at the partnership level or at the infrastructure project level. Where early opportunities for co-investment by DFIs are ruled out, DFID will, through TA support, seek to directly tackle the constraints other DFIs face by e.g. strengthening environmental and 5 social due diligence approaches and generating knowledge about the commercial and development returns being generated for DFID through individual project deals. 15. Boosting wealth creation through infrastructure provision is a top priority in DFID’s Business Plan 2011-15. DFID’s private sector approach in India is unlikely to achieve sustainable wealth creation for businesses or poor households without concerted effort to tackle the infrastructure deficit in the low-income states. The additional interest in using returnable capital suggests that infrastructure is one of the most viable options for testing this new approach. Is intervention feasible? 16. The UK-supported Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG) has demonstrated that investments in infrastructure projects in difficult sectors and geographical areas are feasible. They have used a variety of instruments in Africa and Asia, in countries which are similar or worse off than the low income states of India. The main mechanisms have been - Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund for debt finance; InfraCo for project development and equity; GuarantCo for local currency guarantees; DevCo for technical assistance to government partners; and TAF for technical assistance to projects. The mix of instruments is preferable in the infrastructure space, allowing for flexibility in approach as well as ensuring reduced risk to capital erosion through using more secure instruments like a line of credit, alongside riskier equity investments. 17. For India, the DFID-commissioned scoping work by a national infrastructure think tank confirms the proposed intervention is feasible. They recommend initial deployment of long term debt finance which is urgently needed in the sub-sectors and geographies we propose to focus on. Multilateral banks and development finance institutions have utilised the proposed investment instruments - largely debt, some equity and guarantees - to promote infrastructure projects, although largely in more developed states and sub-sectors. The study also identified key infrastructure sub-sectors which could deliver maximal impact on growth and poverty reduction, while filling a key gap in increasing the level of private sector participation in commercially viable areas e.g. storage and logistics infrastructure; off-grid power; transport services; and core urban services like water and sewerage. The investments by DFID will be of a long term nature, providing patient capital to a sector in need of long term capital instruments. DFID loans are likely to have tenors of 15 years– detailed terms are under negotiation with potential partners. 18. The low income states of India represent a good opportunity for DFID to test and upscale the new returnable capital instrument for infrastructure. The states are growing at a good rate, albeit from a recent low economic base, compared to the past. The business environment has also improved, particularly as compared to previous decades, with the ruling governments’ of several states heavily focussing on development as the key agenda and keen to attract private investment in infrastructure. The quality of infrastructure has become a key electoral issue. The national and state governments are focussed on addressing this gap, allocating human and financial resources to the extent possible, given existing constraint, to this task. Given the substantial political demand for PPPs, particularly in economic infrastructure, PPP policies are being actively pursued in low income states such as Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, with state governments prepared to take on a fair degree of capital risk. The consequences of not intervening. Set out the difference this will make to reduce poverty. 19. If DFID does not invest, the proposed results are unlikely to be achieved at the pace expected with DFID support: about ten projects will either not come up or be heavily delayed, with a knockon effect of slowing down expansion of infrastructure services to the targeted group of 280 000 people. PPP activity in the low income states may continue but at a slower pace especially in key sub-sectors vital to their economies. Without a concerted effort to mobilise infrastructure investments and improve the business environment in the low income states, where the population is about half of all of India, expansion of infrastructure services will continue to lag 6 behind the more developed states where the infrastructure business models have been largely proven and where the business environment is considered more favourable. 20. The current squeeze on foreign flows into India has heightened the competition for accessing equity or credit. In this type of climate, the developed states and mature sub-sectors are likely to continue to secure any free capital flows for infrastructure, maintaining regional inequalities and missing an opportunity to begin to tackle the disparities in infrastructure service levels between states. 21. Insufficient progress on improving infrastructure services will continue to discourage a wider set of (non-infrastructure) investors, impeding the job-based growth ambitions of the low income states. B. Impact and Outcome that we expect to achieve The expected impact of this intervention is increased investor interest in pro-poor infrastructure sectors in the eight low-income states. The key outcome of the programme is the expansion of better quality infrastructure services that deliver social benefits direct to households, such as electricity and clean water, and deliver economic benefits to businesses such as roads that give access to markets and electricity that help run storage or manufacturing facilities. Refer to evidence which demonstrates that the Impact and Outcome are achievable. If there is a lack of evidence this must be acknowledged. Infrastructure and Growth 22. There is strong global consensus across governments and businesses about the vital role infrastructure plays in underpinning economic growth. Infrastructure is a central plank of the UK’s economic recovery plan and it has a substantial profile in national Indian policy on sustaining growth. Infrastructure is a major theme of G20 discussions on the global economic crisis and featured prominently during the June 2012 G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico. It also featured heavily during the March 2012 conference of the BRICS in Delhi. 23. The majority of research conducted on infrastructure’s contribution to growth has tended to focus on transport, power and telecommunications. It is extremely challenging to research and assess the entire 25-30 year life-cycle benefits of infrastructure assets. There is limited good quality research available on the specific contribution of the pro-poor sub-sectors identified in this programme, including agricultural warehouses and core urban services. 24. The economic literature on the importance of infrastructure in creating an enabling environment for economic growth and income generation in developing country contexts is well established xii. Similarly in an Indian context, the important enabling role of infrastructure is well established, and its role as a key constraint in growth has been identified in numerous studies and surveys.xiii While being viewed as a constraint by businesses in growth and job creationxiv, it is also seen as an integral part of the India growth story. “Infrastructure development in India has a significant positive contribution toward growth…causality analysis shows that there is unidirectional causality from infrastructure development to output growth. From a policy perspective, there should be greater emphasis on infrastructure development to sustain the high economic growth which the Indian economy has been experiencing for the last few years.”xv Many infrastructure services are often viewed from a public good perspective, where the non-excludable and non-rivalrous nature of the good makes it a good candidate for public expenditure.xvi However, there is also increasingly consensus that the private sector has a large role to play in infrastructure sector given the additional efficiencies, resources and improved services that it can offer.xvii 25. An IMF Working Paper on Financing Infrastructure in India (2011) notes: “The impact of 7 infrastructure development on economic growth, productivity and trade has been extensively studied, and most studies conclude that improvements in a broad range of infrastructure categories lead to faster growth. Roller and Waverman (2001), using data for 21 OECD countries for over 20 years, find evidence of a significant positive causal link between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth. Calderon and Serven (2003) find positive and significant output contributions of telecommunications, transport and power in a sample of Latin American countries. Donaldson (2010) using Indian historical data during 1870-1930 finds that railroad development reduced trade cost, bolstered trade, and increased real income, while Mohommad (2010) finds that physical infrastructure improvements lead to faster total factor productivity growth in manufacturing. Finally, Canning and Pedroni (2008) use cross-country data from 1950-1992 to show that infrastructure positively contributes to long run economic growth despite substantial variations across countries.”xviii Recent researchxix also highlights the linkages between infrastructure and the social sector, especially health and education outcomes. Work by Sahoo and Dash (2009)xx looks at the role of infrastructure in economic growth in India over the period 1970–2006 and finds that infrastructure development in India has a significant positive contribution toward growth. Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction 26. The poverty reducing impacts of infrastructure depend heavily on the characteristics of the infrastructure sub-sector being considered (accessibility, quality and affordability). For example, a 2007 paper by Fan et al notes that “…In India, government spending on roads has the largest impact on poverty reduction of interventions. For every one million Rupees spent on rural roads, 124 poor would be lifted above the poverty line. One Rupee invested in rural roads generates more than 5 Rupees in returns in agricultural production. In Uganda, roads and in particular rural feeder roads, were second only to agricultural R&D in reducing poverty. In China, roads and particularly low-grade roads contributed to poverty reduction for both rural and urban poor through improved transport of food and raw materials, reduced food prices and growth of industry.”xxi Infrastructure that enables low-skilled and semi-skilled income earning opportunities are likely to be the most poverty reducing. Rural, district and state roads; rural electrification etc. and are more likely to be poverty reducing than many other kinds of transport infrastructure (national roads; airports etc.). 27. An analysis of data from India Human Development Survey (2004-05)xxii finds a strong correlation between social indicators and availability of infrastructure at the grass root level. High Infra. Low Infra. Diff. Villages Villages Role Doctor attended delivery 43 25 18 Full immunisation 51 40 11 54 47 7 % children in private school Mean household income 24 41595 17 32230 7 9365 % Males in nonfarm work 34 22 12 % Victim of crime or threat 6.3 8.2 -1.9 % Membership in Organisations 42 35 7 % Women visit natal family 2+ times a 72 year 64 8 of % children who can read Infrastructure in the Low-Income States 8 28. Growth diagnostic work by the World Bank for the low-income states identified infrastructure as one of the three most significant constraints to growth: “The difference in availability of infrastructure has made a perceptible difference: states with better infrastructure in the 1980s experienced relatively faster growth during the 1990s. Village access to paved roads and ruralurban connectivity were particularly important for generating growth in agricultural productivity and non-farm employment, and in supporting urban development. The evidence also suggests that infrastructure availability, particularly of power, is one of the most important factors determining industry location.”xxiii 29. A ranking of the investment climate in Indian states finds that “infrastructure and institutions remain the main bottlenecks in the country’s private sector development.”xxiv It also finds that the states with the worst investment climate are Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. A key factor in the low investment climate ranking of these states is the lack of physical infrastructure. Private Sector-led Infrastructure 30. The importance of private sector involvement in infrastructure provision is highlighted in the 1994 World Development Report.xxv The report states that infrastructure has an impact on economic growth and poverty reduction, but only when it is responding to demand and is delivered efficiently. For this to take place the providers need to face the right incentives, be run like businesses and be subject to competition. 31. The recent PIDG-commissioned systematic review of evidence for development additionality of DFI-supported infrastructure projects notes that hard evidence linking DFI investments to poverty reduction is scarce, mainly because: “It is difficult to measure causal relationships between infrastructure and development outcomes; It is harder still to attribute a share of this total impact to the work of DFIs, either individually or as a group; and DFIs have traditionally focused on leveraging private finance into the infrastructure sector and have not developed robust measurement systems to track their broader impacts…”xxvi Empirical evidence from relevant DFID programmes 32. DFID’s experience in West Bengal through West Bengal Municipal Development Fund (WBMDF) showed that an investment of £6.3 million helped fund additional infrastructure projects worth £74.3 million, in turn benefiting around 3 million city dwellers (of which 0.42 million were poor). Beyond this, DFID India’s experience of supporting private participation in infrastructure service delivery has been through the highly successful MP Power programme and through policy and project development support under Governance and Growth programmes in MP and Orissa. 33. PIDG documents suggest that its $55 million invested in India has attracted $1.5 billion from the private sector; although the systematic review noted earlier notes that how much ‘additionality’ this support generated is less clear. 34. Evidence for results i) and ii) have been calculated based on DFID investment supporting no more than 20% of the total costs of any infrastructure projects. The 20% is the standard maximum contribution by any infrastructure creditor in India. Results iii) and iv) have been calculated using empirical data from PIDG project documents with downward adjustments made to take account of the decreased likelihood of the programme involving large-scale network infrastructure. 9 Appraisal Case A. What are the feasible options that address the need set out in the Strategic case? 35. To address the need set out in the Strategic Case DFID proposes to use its returnable capital to promote infrastructure projects that provide the maximum development benefits, in the low income states. At one level, additionality and development impact will be assured through focus on the under invested low income states and identification of sub-sectors that are pro-poor and, at the second level, by examination of specific interventions (i.e. projects) themselves. 36. DFID-India had proposed an Infrastructure Sector Programme (Strategic Case approved by the Secretary of State in June 2012), partnering with a range of partners, using a mix of instruments, i.e.equity, loans, guarantees and technical assistance, to promote private investment in infrastructure in the eight low income states. Further detailed consideration of potential partnerships and available resources has suggested that we should initially design two separate initiatives for debt and equity instruments. 37. While a single instrument (debt-based) approach may mean missing out on projects e.g. where the project sponsor is struggling to raise early-stage equity, there is a stand-alone case for DFID to tackle the long-term debt needs in the sector. Long-term debt is in short supply and where it is available, it tends to reach mature sub-sectors in developed states. As discussions within DFID India’s broader infrastructure approach with other potential DFID partners develop, there will be scope for DFID to tackle a wider set of market failures, including by addressing the non-debt needs of specific projects. In addition, deploying DFID capital across a suite of instruments will allow for a demonstration effect across multiple markets. 38. DFID had invited eight potential partners to set out their interests and capability. A four-person DFID assessment team assessed proposals against pre-agreed and weighted criteria including: i) Demonstrated experience of financing projects in multiple infrastructure sub-sectors; ii) Capacity to use a variety of financial instruments; iii) Pipeline of potential investments in low income states; iv) Track record of deploying capital in low income states; v) Fit with DFID pro-poor objectives; vi) Quality of staff and systems; vii) Experience in identified pro-poor sub sectors; viii) Good networks (project sponsors, financiers and investors) and ix) Understanding that DFID resources and investments must be additional. 39. Of the possible partners for providing loan finance, DFID judged the proposal from IDFC amongst the best (in terms of their systems, the quality of their team, and experience in the relevant sectors) and the most likely to deliver impact within DFID’s timescale (because of their existing, networks in the low income states and pipeline of projects), PIDG was also considered due to the high score received under MAR although its limited presence and scale in India made is less attractive than IDFC Ltd. in terms of DFID’s timescale. 40. The feasibility of partnering with IDFC has also been judged on the basis of 9 months of detailed discussions between DFID and IDFC involving: Exploration of broad parameters and a shared approach, including IDFC taking on capital risk on its balance sheet; DFID examination of IDFC approach to risk appraisal and due diligence, particularly on environmental and social safeguards; Early exploration of actual projects that have struggled to reach financial closure and that 10 might benefit from DFID risk capital. 41. The programme is expected to result in (using £36 million of investment capital and £2 million of grant assistance): i) At least 10 additional private sector-led, including PPP, projects reaching financial closure (e.g. biomass, feeder roads, solid waste management). ii) At least £120 million of additional private investment mobilised for pro-poor infrastructure services (e.g. crowding in investment in agricultural value chain services like cold chains, storage facilities and market infrastructure). iii) An estimated 280 000 people get access to new/improved infrastructure services such as electricity, sewerage, and transport. iv) An estimated 1500 long term jobs generated and 3 000 construction jobs generated. Non-appraisable Options: A number of other approaches were considered and rejected as appraisal options for this Business Case: 42. Appraising options by sub-sector: e.g. DFID focusing its support on either agricultural infrastructure or energy or roads or urban services. Whilst this might provide useful insights on priority investments under the partnership, we have judged that investment opportunities (or deal flow) in individual subsectors will be very limited and therefore not feasible in the timeframe available. We also judge that no single sub-sector is so massively behind others in terms of private investment or in terms of quality of service. 43. Appraising options by partner: (i.e. converting into formal cost-benefit terms the exercise DFID has already conducted to assess potential partners). Since this approach would rely heavily on nonmonetised costs and benefits, we have concluded that this would add little value. 44. Appraising options by instrument: (i.e. comparing the impact of providing a line of credit to IDFC with the impact of providing funds through alternative instruments like an equity fund) is dependent on the volume of returnable capital and issues of threshold. For example, to set-up a dedicated infrastructurespecific equity fund would require a minimum investment size for the fund to attract talent and be an effective investment manager. Secondly, to build a credible portfolio of infrastructure assets, with each investment ranging from £1 million to £10 million, a portfolio size smaller than about £35 million would not make the intervention substantial. The different risk and return profiles of financial instruments and the set-up procedures (time, cost, co-financers etc.) make a debt partnership quicker to operationalize. Given that large requirement of the sector and the complementary roles of financial instruments, a combination of a line of credit and an equity fund that can attract co-financing is expected to have the most significant impact. With the review of the main alternative options already concluded at the strategic case stage, this business case focuses on demonstrating that the partnership is worth pursuing when compared against a “donothing” option. : Option 1: Support IDFC 45. This option involves working with IDFC to deploy up to £36 million returnable capital through a single 11 instrument, debt. Returnable capital will be provided as a concessional line of credit provided over a long tenor (15 years) to IDFC to provide long term debt finance to infrastructure projects that would otherwise (with access to only non-concessional funds) not have been considered as attractive investment opportunities by IDFC. 46. Option 1 will target pro-poor infrastructure sub-sectors (particularly post-harvest agricultural infrastructure like warehouses, markets, agri-processing facilities and refrigerated trucks; decentralised clean energy; state and district roads; and urban services like water, solid waste management and street lighting). . Successful DFID-supported investments are expected to demonstrate to the private sector the market potential of particular kinds of infrastructure projects in pro-poor sub-sectors in the poorer states of India. These projects will have a demonstration effect, leading to new private sectorled projects that mobilise capital from the private sector, deliver new services to households and businesses, and generate construction sector related jobs. EXAMPLE FROM IDFC CURRENT PROJECT PIPELINE: AGRICULTURAL STORAGE FACILITY AND LOGISTICS HUB IN BIHAR Problem • Wastage of grains and perishable food is high across India and particularly in Bihar (50% for perishable food) • Innovative models needed to make provision of storage profitable Business Model • Investment in Bihar - one of the largest maize producing regions of the country • Multiple revenue streams from provision of storage facilities, food processing and logistics support • Rail linked logistics hub and maize processing units Market failure • Developer has raised £1.7 million in equity and debt but requires a further £1.7 million in debt to develop the facility • Banks have reached their infrastructure lending limits; risky model; less profitable line than other infrastructure projects Social Impact • Improve the price retained by farmers due to higher value addition within Bihar • Generate revenue of up to £1.4 million per annum, jobs and tax revenue 47. Grant-based technical assistance (up to £2 million) will focus on i) monitoring and evaluating individual investment deals (projects) and the broader portfolio and ii) improving the capacity of the private sector to deliver and monitor stronger development outcomes, including those associated with environmental and social objectives. Up to £2 million in grants will be used to effectively monitor and evaluate the use of DFID returnable capital at the project and portfolio level (£1.5 million) and to strengthen the capacity of IDFC and its borrower clients (infrastructure developers) to improve the quality of project delivery, particularly on the social and environmental front (£0.5 million). DFID is currently scoping the potential for a stand-alone infrastructure TA programme to tackle the challenges in the business environment. Public policy interventions will tend to be very specific to sub-sectors (and therefore line ministries) and geographies: this will require careful design and prioritisation. Improvements in the business environment are currently being directly tackled through on-going DFID TA to the state governments in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha and these are states where the DFID-IDFC partnership will actively explore investment opportunities. 12 48. DFID’s partnership with IDFC will adopt an appropriate risk return equation that catalyses private investment into projects that pay back the initial capital and enable DFID to recycle this into a fresh round of projects. The programme will provide returnable debt capital of up to £36 million to IDFC, structured so that long-term debt can be deployed to projects that need the final debt investment before reaching financial closure. 49. Successful projects supported by the partnership with IDFC using DFID funds will lead to the direct provision of services for beneficiary populations, as well as demonstrate the viability of infrastructure business models in states and sub-sectors. These are states and sub-sectors which have remained under-invested due to high risk perceptions within the private sector, and by tackling these perceptions the partnership is expected to catalyse further private investment in these states. This will have a multiplier effect on the economic growth and poverty reduction efforts of the states, through the direct impact of the investments delivering infrastructure services, as well as the impetus it will provide in crowding in investments and other types of businesses. DFID’s involvement will also lead to improvements in the quality of implementation, particularly on the environmental and social front; building systems in partners to ensure this across all their projects. 50. The returnable capital component and the grant-based component are expected to lead indirectly to a broader expansion of infrastructure services: creating a positive investment climate in the low income states for both infrastructure and non-infrastructure businesses. This is expected to lead to greater productivity in key job-intensive sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, leading to inclusive economic growth. 51. The main characteristic of this option is the tight focus it brings to the partnership and instrument that DFID will utilise. It would however limit the programme’s ability to respond to the specific needs of projects e.g. where a project’s main need might be for finance that is unavailable in the programme. Option 2: Do Nothing 52. This is the ‘Do Nothing’ option with DFID not providing returnable capital through partners for private sector-led infrastructure projects in the eight low income states, nor providing any grant support to improve the conditions for investment. This option could see continued expansion of infrastructure projects in the low income states, albeit at a slower pace, particularly in the pro-poor sub-sectors. B. Assessing the strength of the evidence base for each feasible option 53. The Theory of Change (ToC), below, outlines the causal relationships between Inputs, Outputs, Outcomes and Impact. These inter-relations are illustrated in the diagram below. The evidence underpinning ‘Activities to short-term or medium term outcomes’ has been assessed to be medium. The evidence linking ‘Outcomes to Impact’ is also assessed to be medium. The strength of evidence underpinning both these sets of relationships is detailed in the diagram below. Where the evidence has been assessed to be weak, the programme’s monitoring and evaluation framework will seek to tackle these gaps in evidence, for example, evidence-backing link between infrastructure and growth in the poorest states; infrastructure and jobs for poor people etc. 13 Outputs: 1. 2. Inputs 3. Sustainable private sector-supported infrastructure projects delivered in target sub-sectors in the low income states Development orientation of the project partners and portfolio companies strengthened Policy relevant knowledge on private sector approaches to pro-poor infrastructure sub-sectors generated Activities Financial (£): DFID: £36 million in returnable capital and £2 million in TA People (HR): DFID: Senior Infrastructure Adviser (0.15 FTE); Infrastructure Finance Adviser (0.4 FTE) Economists (0.25 FTE); Governance Advisor (0.10 FTE); Social Development Adviser (0.10 FTE) Program Officer(0.5 FTE) Staff at Partner firms [TBC] Research/studie s Cost benefit data, Sectorial studies, Infrastructure financing suite of products Impact Participation Investments/Projects Develop and promote commercially viable infrastructure projects that provide a double bottom line return Successful/On-track projects (including PPPs) in the eight LIS across 4 sub sectors demonstrating attractiveness of subsectors/states for investment Pilots in clean energy, innovation or impact interventions across sub sectors Partner Organizations / Developers /Private Sector firms/ Financial institutions / Financial intermediaries/ Technical Service Providers Financial Products/ Institutional Capacity Use of financial products to address the specific risk/challenges in infrastructure sub-sectors in eight LIS System support and capacity building of Partner institution to undertake projects (incl. PPPs) in eight LIS and target subsector Facilitate availability of financial products to developers via private or listed markets meeting infrastructure’s unique requirements of long-term financing Direct beneficiaries comprise businesses and households who receive infrastructure services (power, roads, urban services etc.) Indirect beneficiaries would be the poor as construction workers or in further upstream/downstr eam jobs, users of infrastructure (local businesses, logistic providers and the wider society) including many women and children Policy-relevant Knowledge Generation Studies on infrastructure interventions, economic analys’before’) and developmental impact (‘after’) Case studies on successful, innovative interventions for wider adoption . EVIDENCE Linking Activities to Short-term / Medium term Outcome: Medium Outcome World Bank IEG Impact Evaluation 2008: Welfare Impact of Rural Electrification, a reassessment of costs and benefits DFID (2012) PIDG Business Case PPIAF (2004) Strategic Review of PPIAF World Bank (1994) World Development Report- Infrastructure for Development World Bank (2008) Accelerating Growth and Development in Lagging Regions of India IDS and Engineers Against Poverty, “Development Finance Institutions and Infrastructure: A Systematic Review of Evidence for Additionality 2011 WEF Global Competitiveness Survey 2010-11 PPPIndiadatabase.com and Census 2011 Improved access to better quality infrastructure services (electricity, roads, agri-storage and waste/water services) to households and businesses. Increased investor interest in pro-poor infrastructure sectors in the eight low income states. Assumptions, External Factors Policy and regulatory environment for private sector involvement in infrastructure in target states is improving (or does not deteriorate) Stable credit rating and outlook at sovereign, state or partner level Political will exists to make necessary reform to incentivize private sector participation in infrastructure sub sectors (incl. removal of bottlenecks, efficient clearance for projects, tax incentives, and tariff structure for private sector developers etc.) EVIDENCE Linking Outcomes to Impact: Medium DFID (2002) Making Connections: Infrastructure for Poverty Reduction Sahoo, Pravakar and Dash, Ranjan Kumar (2009) Infrastructure development and growth in India. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy James P. Walsh, Chanho Park and Jianyan Yu (2011) IMF Working Paper “Financing Infrastructure in India: Macroeconomic Lessons and Emerging Market Case Studies” World Bank (2012) More and Better Jobs in South Asia Fan, S, P. Hazell, and S. Thorat (2000). Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India. 54. In the table below the quality of evidence for each option is rated as either Strong, Medium or Limited Option 1 Evidence rating Medium. Returnable capital component: This option is similar to the PIDG multi-donor group of facilities in that a variety of financial instruments and partners (or companies/facilities) are used. PIDG benefited from a detailed DFID Multilateral 14 Aid Review exercise where it was found to be very effective, including on the basis of its work to date in India. The recent PIDG-commissioned systematic review of evidence for development additionality of DFI-supported infrastructure projects however noted that robust evidence linking DFI investments to poverty reduction is difficult to gather, including because of the inherent difficulties of evaluating infrastructure assets over their full life-time. 2 Grant component: This option is very similar to: the multi-donor global Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF); the TAF and DevCo facilities in PIDG; and also the historical and ongoing TA support provided by DFID India to state government partners on PPP policies and projects in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. Internal project review papers note the success of these TAbased approaches in achieving their stated objectives.. Medium. Assessing the quality of evidence of a ‘without DFID returnable capital’ scenario is relatively straightforward. Without DFID support, IDFC is unlikely to push hard with focussing on the low-income states. One can compare the current IDFC baseline and track record in the low-income states and in the pro-poor sectors with the projected accelerated trend under this partnership and note the difference. What is the likely impact (positive and negative) on climate change and environment for each feasible option? 55. Categorise as A, high potential risk / opportunity; B, medium / manageable potential risk / opportunity; C, low / no risk / opportunity; or D, core contribution to a multilateral organisation. Option 1 2 Climate change and environment risks Climate change and environment and impacts, Category (A, B, C, D) opportunities, Category (A, B, C, D) B B A C Climate change and environment risks and opportunities Option 1: Support IDFC Risks 56. The eight low income states will be subjected to either increased floods (Bihar, Orissa, UP, MP) or droughts (Rajasthan, parts of UP and MP, Orissa, Jharkhand) over the short, medium and longer term due to climate variability and climate change. Large infrastructure projects such as roads, energy generation, or urban services, if designed without taking these into consideration may exacerbate the vulnerability of infrastructure assets and services significantly, both for the poor and the rich. At the same time, the capacity of infrastructure financial institutions to correctly assess these risks and build in safeguards may be very limited. 57. Infrastructure asset creation in each of the key sub-sectors carries its own environmental risks. For example, for biomass based power generation, an unsustainable pace of biomass production can lead to ecosystems getting damaged, as a result of land and water degradation/misuse and net greenhouse emissions may occur. Similarly, solid waste management systems that use poorly sited and managed landfills can pollute ground water and lead to methane emissions. Agricultural cold storage facilities, like refrigerated warehouses, are often reliant on diesel based power. Road construction, particularly on new alignments poses risks such as clearing of vegetation, soil erosion and localised flooding. Without transparent and effective regulation and management by public sector entities, private sector players are likely to view these risks as secondary to their core business. 15 Option 1: Support IDFC Opportunities 58. It is well documented that physical capital such as road connectivity to markets, output storage and value addition facilities, access to energy etc. are determining factors for climate change resilience of a community. By enabling creation of some of these assets, this intervention will directly lead to enhancing climate change resilience of the target communities. At the same time, through a combination of adherence to best practice environmental safeguards and policy influencing, this intervention can very effectively ensure that the infrastructure created is inherently low carbon and environmental friendly in nature. 59. Parallel to this, real impact will only happen if climate resilient approaches are scalable. Many innovative one-off models currently exist in clean energy (e.g. sustainable supply models for biomass power generation), agricultural cold storages (e.g. solar/wind powered) etc. This intervention has an opportunity to support them to develop into viable and scalable approaches. A lot of these will only go ahead when financial institutions begin to genuinely consider climate and environment parameters into project financing decisions, besides the financial ones. This intervention provides an opportunity to influence a major financial institution like IDFC to mainstream environmental best practice into their investment criteria in climate-sensitive sectors. 60. A number of DFID supported initiatives to support Governments in planning for climate resilient and low carbon development are in various design stages currently. A number of Indian states themselves are preparing the state level climate change action plans. This intervention can very neatly tie into these and even support implementation of the infrastructure measures planned for tackling climate change. 61. At a practical level, evidence on how incorporating climate change parameters actually leads to changes in design of specific infrastructure, their costs and returns, lifetimes, results etc. is so far very weak globally. By exploring the extent to which the infrastructure projects financed under this programme consider climate change aspects, strong evidence can very usefully be generated for wider national and global benefits. Option 2 (Do Nothing) Risks and Opportunities: 62. The ‘Do Nothing’ option may lead to (i) a delay in delivering new infrastructure projects/services, and (ii) climate change adaptation and mitigation aspects may not be appropriately incorporated into the design and operation of these. That will imply that on one hand, target communities will continue to be vulnerable to climate change impacts for much longer and on the other hand, there will be a lock-in into high carbon infrastructure. Overall, this might mean a greatly missed opportunity to directly improve climate resilience and the environmental aspects of planning and delivering new projects, particularly given the absence of grant support to improve private sector capacity in this area. There are no apparent opportunities for pro-actively tackling climate change through this option. Institutional Appraisal 63. The institutional environment for infrastructure development has undergone significant change in the past three decades. Initially dominated by government grants administered through public sector entities, this sector has since the 1990s openly encouraged private sector participation. Although involvement of the private sector and growing government interest has made a significant impact ($500 16 billion in infrastructure investments over 2007-2011), several institutional weaknesses constrain the effective functioning of the infrastructure market. Key weaknesses include:(i) limited supply of bankable (with well-defined and appropriately allocated risks) projects;(ii) structural and regulatory barriers to financing of infrastructure projects; (iii) several implementation challenges; (iv) weak political will to charge user fees from consumers and to push further reforms; and (v)impact of the current macroeconomic environment.xxvii 64. IDFC is a non-banking finance company especially designed to meet some of the regulatory limitations facing the infrastructure sector mentioned above. It is seen as an institution capable of engaging in innovative financing for infrastructure and helping other institutions raise funds for infrastructure. It works with government entities and supports them in formulating infrastructure policy and regulatory frameworks. In view of these strengths and its comparative advantage (analysed in Annex 3), IDFC is the most appropriate partner for the infrastructure partnership programme, including for the purpose of addressing key institutional issues. 65. IDFC has been promoted by GoI, but is now a leading blue chip infrastructure finance company, publicly listed. It has a strong network from which it can source deals and the capacity to undertake robust due diligence of project proposals. IDFC has solid capacity to ensure adherence to social and environmental standards and it seeks to reach international standards by becoming India’s first signatory to the global Equator Principles, for which it has requested DFID technical support. Adhering to the Equator Principles is likely to strengthen its access to foreign ‘ethical’ investors as well strengthening the likelihood of projects delivering stronger development returns. Its profit oriented approach has led to a limited presence in difficult states and sub-sectors but it is prepared to take on full project risk on its balance sheet for debt products supported by DFID. The detailed financial terms are under discussion and interest rates charged by DFID are likely to range between 1-3.5% (in £ terms). If IDFC takes on the hedging risk, the effect rate of interest to IDFC would be in the range of 79% at rupee terms, which is in the lower range of the 7-14% of the current multilateral/bilateral lending rates, government securities, and the commercial market rates. Annex 4 provides further information on the proposed terms of DFID lending. 66. Although TA available under this programme will primarily focus on project level institutional issues (such as helping IDFC adopt Equator Principles), it may be used to strengthen the IDFC capacity to influence the sector policies and practices to address other institutional constraints mentioned above. DFID and other donors are also considering separate initiatives to address wider policy environment issues in the infrastructure sector. 67. Impact of the institutional issues will vary considerably between Options 1 and 2. Option 2 (doing nothing) will mean depriving the sector of a significant opportunity to address project level institutional issues for infrastructure projects in India’s poorest states. It may also mean missing the opportunity to support IDFC’s efforts to influence wider policy constraints and formally adopting the equator principles (first Indian company to do so) and, therefore, delaying these processes. Any delay in addressing these issues may prove costly in the current investment climate for infrastructure. Social Appraisal 68. The extent to which poor people will directly benefit from new or improved infrastructure services will depend on the nature of infrastructure projects supported with DFID finance. This programme has identified four infrastructure sub-sectors (agricultural infrastructure; energy services; transport, mainly road; and urban services) based largely on their potential to deliver growth and services that are propoor in the poorest states, as well as their difficulties in attracting private finance. According to Mahajan & Guptaxxviii, “For India’s rural poor strengthened infrastructure facilities would facilitate the 17 development of small enterprises, agro-based activities, and markets, and increase off-farm and nonfarm employment opportunities”. 69. Projects that expect to deliver direct to targeted households (urban services, possibly decentralised rural energy services etc) can offer greatest prospects for direct poverty targeting, over infrastructure projects that deliver non-targeted public assets like roads and street lighting. Regardless, public assets such as electrification and road availability are known to have a significant effect on poverty reduction as established by an ADB studyxxix. The benefits include improved economic growth and access to employment, improved access to public services such as health and education facilities, increased personal safety, better access to common property resources by the poor and enhanced participation in public work. 70. From a gender perspective, the analysis of Indian women’s entrepreneurship and economic participationxxx has established a clear relationship between better quality infrastructure and female entry into industry/enterprise. Benefits for women include greater mobility and access to public services such as health facilities and markets in district centres. Where infrastructure can be targeted at household level, certain kinds of infrastructure services will disproportionately benefit women and girls for example, water, toilets, and drainagexxxi. The beneficial effect of improved water and sanitation facilities on women and children’s health is an established fact. It also reduces the time burden of women and girls spent in water collection and have been an important factor leading to improved school attendance of girls. 71. Whilst development of agricultural infrastructure (such as improved storage and logistical facilities for agriculture) will not directly benefit individual households, it will benefit farmers & reduce wastage of food grains (20-30% food grains harvested in India are reportedly wasted due to inadequate storage facilitiesxxxii). It will also reduce distress sale and ensure farmers get better prices for their produce. This increased income maybe used to leverage better health and educational services and contribute to overall well-being of small and medium farm households. The main poverty reducing benefits from this programme are expected through infrastructure services delivering improvements in the business environment, whether for small scale farmers (essentially micro-enterprises) or larger scale industrial developers who will have a requirement for skilled and low-skilled labour. A further positive impact on poor people is through short-term and long-term employment opportunities generating by the construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure projects. 72. The key social risk is associated with land acquisition for infrastructure projects and the related resettlement and rehabilitation of project-affected persons (PAPs). The programme will comply, at minimum, with robust national and local laws governing treatment of PAPs and will also encourage partners to move towards internationally benchmarked standards for infrastructure projects, such as the IFC-promoted Equator Principles. DFID India’s approach to identifying and mitigating project-level environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our private portfolio will be managed through a new ESG framework. This framework will set out detailed operating procedures for managing DFID’s due diligence approach and strengthening capacity within the private sector to adequately identify and mitigate ESG risks, including social risks. The programme will develop a detailed Monitoring and Evaluation framework in the first six months of implementation, for tracking both commercial and development outcomes. This will include consideration of options that help track and respond to the extent to which poorer households, and women and girls in particular, are being affected by the programme. 73. Option 2 (Do Nothing), will mean a missed opportunity to improve the reach and pace of infrastructure services, particularly those that might support job-intensive economic activities in the poorest states. 74. The Climate and Environment Appraisal, the Institutional and Political Appraisal and the Social 18 Appraisal demonstrate that the best option for DFID is Option 1. C. What are the costs and benefits of each feasible option? 75. DFID support to the Infrastructure Debt Partnership Programme will be up to £36 million. The options appraised here are: Option 1: Provide £36 million to IDFC through a line of credit (plus £2 million TA) Option 2: Do nothing (Counterfactual) 76. There is a long history of appraisals being carried out for infrastructure projects, especially by multilateral agencies that have been active in this sector.xxxiii Unlike previous interventions where the specific infrastructure assets to be financed are known prior to the intervention, the proposed programme will set up a broad based facility that will have the flexibility of supporting a variety of possible projects. This economic appraisal therefore looks at the benefits that could potentially accrue from DFID supported investments in high impact private sector infrastructure projects in the low income states. The programme aims to support a broad range of interventions including in the four sub-sectors of agriculture, clean off-grid energy, transport services and urban water supply, sewerage and solid waste management. The appraisal uses available information in each of the sub- sectors and attempts to construct a model whereby DFID supported investment translates into infrastructure assets and a stream of monetised benefits in each case. 77. Since the exact projects and interventions are still unknown, the appraisal assumes an even spread of capital deployment across the four sectors (and as tracked in the log frame), and then uses a model in each sector to build up a stream of benefits that would accrue. The high level benefits that are monetised in each sector is summarised in the table below. The detailed approach used for each one of the sectors follows below. Summary of Monetised benefits Sector Indicator monetised Agriculture The value of additional agricultural products that will reach the market Clean Energy The increase in household incomes from improved energy access Roads The value of better access to markets, and health and education facilities to households. Urban Basic Services Benefits to individuals from improved health and economic outcomes due to better access to better quality water and sanitation services Agriculture 78. While a number of possible interventions are possible in the agriculture sector, for the purpose of this economic appraisal we use the specific example of cold storage facilities which are viewed currently as a key gap in the agricultural value chain in India. 79. India is the largest producer of fruits and second largest producer of vegetables in the world. In spite of that per capita availability of fruits and vegetables is quite low because of post-harvest losses (25% to 30% of productionxxxiv) due to non-availability of post harvesting and food processing facilities. In many of the low income states, this figure can be even higher, with estimates showing that nearly 40% of horticultural produce is lost in Bihar and U.P.xxxv In addition to wastage, lack of access to facilities forces farmers to sell their produce immediately after harvest, leading to a glut of produce driving low market prices for farmers. The appraisal uses industry estimates of Rs.50,000/ tonne as capital investment to build cold storage capacity. The average value of horticultural produce is determined from the Indian Horticulture Database (2011)xxxvi. Using the cost estimates and the availability of capital from DFID supported sources and leveraged private capital; we determine how many tonnes of storage 19 capacity can be created. Using a conservative estimate of 33% of wastage that will be prevented, we can estimate the value of additional agricultural produce that will reach the market, thereby providing benefits to farmers who get better prices for produce and consumers who have better access to goods throughout the year. Clean Energy 80. India currently suffers from a major shortage of electricity generation capacity. The per capita average annual domestic electricity consumption in India in 2009 was 96 kWh in rural areas for those with access to electricity, in contrast to the worldwide per capita annual average of 2600 kWh 81. A study by the ADB in the Indian state of Gujarat on the effect of electrification and road availability finds a significant effect on poverty reduction.xxxvii Using a probability score matching (PSM) approach, the ADB study finds that, households with electricity have between 8 and 16 percent higher incomes. 82. We use industry estimates to determine the capital cost of generating one MW of power and the minimum benchmark household consumption set by the International Energy Agency to estimate the number of households reached. Using a weighted average income from national accounts statistics for the 8 low income states, we calculate a household income effect, on the basis of a conservative estimate of 8% increase in incomes for the households getting energy access. We focus on the impact of access to energy on households in this case due to the available evidence base, and the potential impact on poor households. We recognise however that improved access to energy could also have an important positive effect on businesses in the region but do not include it as a benefit as that would be double counting. Roads 83. Typically road projects are appraised using software like HDM-4 (Highway Design and Management) where the specific stretch of road to be constructed is appraised. The underlying benefits that accrue from accommodating higher levels of traffic, reducing travel time, and lowering vehicle operating costs are estimated. The specific costs incurred within projects like construction costs, routine maintenance costs during the construction period, and environmental and social costs are also estimated. Since we do not know the specific road projects that are to be constructed, we use estimates of road construction costs for state highways from similar projects financed by IIFCL in Orissa.xxxviii 84. Literature sources note the impact of building roads on local economies, agricultural incomes, health and education outcomes, and local labour markets. A report by the Planning Commissionxxxix finds that “rural roads helped in eliminating rural poverty, improving living standard, connecting unconnected habitation to mainstream and generating direct and indirect employment opportunities”. Rural roads in particular have been proved to be catalytic for economic development and poverty alleviation in rural areas. They are also essential for providing basic access to the services like health, education, administration, etc. The literature suggests that while computing EIRR for a road project, social benefits should not be ignored, as these can be as significant as the conventionally used economic benefits. xl For a good summary of the evidence linking investment in roads and development, especially agricultural growth, economic growth and poverty reduction, in the Indian context see Government of India (2006)xli 85. This economic appraisal uses the survey based impact assessment from a World Bank study on the Pradahan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY, or national rural roads programme) to estimate the number of households reached and the monetised benefits that accrue to a household from commercial, health and education benefits. 86. The social benefits accrued from living near an all-weather road include increased income of lowincome group households; increased level of literacy and improved health standards. These have been quantified in monetary terms. In the economic appraisal of World Bank support to the PMGSY Scheme, 20 they find that the monetised benefit to households in the form of better health and education outcomes is approximately the same as the commercial benefits which amounts to Rs. 6750 to each household reachedxlii. 87. We use industry estimates to determine the capital cost of building roads, and use the census data to estimate the number of households which would fall in the catchment area of the roads developed. Using data from the PMGSY scheme, we can therefore estimate the monetary benefits provided to households on account of improved road access allowing for better access to markets and health and education facilities. Urban Basic Services 88. The economic benefits of improved sanitation and water access are increasingly getting better understood in the Indian context. A recent study carried out by the World Bank-administered Water and Sanitation Programme, estimates that the total economic impacts of inadequate sanitation in India amounts to Rs. 2.44 trillion (US$53.8 billion) a year.xliii The same study found that the per capita annual cost saved as a result of improved water supply was Rs. 1268.85 and Rs. 3268.94 as a result of improved sanitation (2012 figure arrived at based on an CPI annual average inflation rate of 9.6%). These costs are primarily due to health care costs, increased morbidity, productivity losses, time losses and water treatment costs. 89. Unlike earlier interventions by DFID India in the urban sector, the infrastructure projects that will be supported under the programme will largely be at the municipal and neighbourhood level, and not at the household level. Therefore the economic appraisal does not use available estimates on per unit water and sanitation connections as a basis for estimating the number of households reached. Instead we use estimates available from a comparable World Bank project in Karnataka to estimate how many people can feasibly be reached in the supported interventions.xliv 90. This allows us to develop a monetary estimate for the value of improved access to water and sanitation services to households through better health, education and economic outcomes. Technical Assistance 91. A proportion of the available resources have been allocated towards technical assistance services. This component is up to £2m of the available capital and has been allocated as a share of total capital, based on broad benchmarks available from other project level TA facilities like the TAF in PIDG. The technical assistance is largely expected to be used at the project level; in structuring deals and ensuring financial closure, in maximising developmental impacts, adherence to DFID ESG requirements and finally in implementing a rigorous M&E strategy. Since the TA facility is so closely linked to the outcomes of the projects funded with the returnable capital, the benefits are not monetised separately. The TA resources are however instrumental in ensuring that the investment projects deliver the benefits assumed here. Unmonetised Benefits 92. A number of additional benefits can be thought to occur from the intervention, which is not monetised. These include benefits to the beneficiary households as well as to the wider economy. These benefits make strengthen further the case for the proposed intervention. It will help deepen the market for long-term local currency infrastructure financing: This is an especially important benefit given the scale of India’s infrastructure requirements and the role domestic infrastructure finance companies have in ensuring financial flows to the sector. Network effects and positive externalities: Infrastructure investments typically tend to have positive 21 externalities to the wider economy through creating a more agreeable economic environment, which are not always adequately captured in standard appraisals. Demonstration effect: It is expected that the successful completion of projects will have a positive effect on the confidence of promoters, financiers and policy makers in supporting similar projects. Given that the exact scale of this effect is necessarily unknown, and its attribution to DFID is difficult to pin down, this remains un-monetised, but is an important and stated objective of the proposed intervention. Option 1: Support to IDFC 93. In this option DFID engagement involves providing £36m capital through IDFC in the form of a line of credit. The terms and conditions on which the line of credit is to be disbursed will be in line with market expectations while ensuring that the loan is ODA compliant. It is expected that the loan will be disbursed completely, and that the repayment will be in line with the agreed terms. Given the institution’s balance sheet strength and credit rating, there is strong confidence of repayment. This would give DFID a nominal financial return but due to the low rate of interest, the return; in present value terms is negative. The returnable nature of the capital means that the funds can be recycled for future development programmes and is a major strength in the structure of this programme. 94. Indicative terms for the line of credit include an interest rate of 3% and a 15 year tenor, including a three year grace period. The fifteen year tenor gives the partners a long gestation period in which to on-lend and recoup investments. Key Assumptions 95. To arrive at the final scale of infrastructure assets that can be supported, the model explicitly looks at the private sector capital that will be mobilised by DFID’s capital. This is a stated objective of the programme, and DFID will actively attempt to crowd in available capital, rather than support projects where capital is already available. The capital leverage ratio is taken to be 2 for debt and is based on discussions with industry financiers in India, including IDFC, the India Infrastructure Finance Corporation Ltd (IIFCL), State Bank of India, Power Trading Corporation as well as with actual infrastructure developers during the detailed scoping exercise conducted for this programme. This is a conservative estimate especially since our expectation is that we will support projects in their early stages, thereby allowing them to crowd in larger volumes (and proportions) of private capital. It is also conservative when compared to experiences by PIDGxlv where there has been greater scope to accommodate additional instruments like guarantees that yield very large mobilisation ratios. 96. The discount rate, used throughout the economic appraisal is 10 per cent. This is in line with standard practise in DFID India business cases, and is also aligned with Government of India rate. Given high inflation and interest rates in the Indian context, it is felt that keeping the discount rate relatively high is justified. 97. The majority of the deployed capital is returnable, and this has been explicitly included in the model on the basis of the terms indicated above. Since expected returns are lower than the 10% discount rate used here, the present value therefore is negative. It is also assumed that DFID capital is only used once for the purpose of a project, despite the possibility of it being recycled to generate additional development impact. 98. The benefits from the supported projects are taken over a period of 20 years, which is typically the lifespan of infrastructure projects in these sectors. 22 Cost 99. The entire cost of the infrastructure projects, including the private sector capital mobilised is taken as a cost when doing the economic appraisal. In addition an annual maintenance cost is taken for all the infrastructure sectors, which is estimated as 1% of initial investments based on industry estimates in India (see paragraph 95) and DFID central guidance on maintenance estimates for economic and social infrastructure. Option 2 – Do nothing (Counterfactual) 100. In this option, DFID capital will not go into supporting private sector infrastructure projects in the low income states of India. Since DFID support is not going towards an already existing government programme or intervention, the counterfactual would be a status quo where the expected direct benefits from the projects will not accrue. Since DFID is providing patient capital that can take high risk, it is able to make viable projects bankable; thereby ensuring they reach financial closure and have an impact on the wider economy. In the absence of this capital, private sector financiers would be hesitant to take the risk of supporting such projects and the incremental benefits derived from them would not accrue. DFID will be able to achieve additionality by making IDFC and other leading private sector infrastructure financiers take an active interest in projects that have high development impact and are based in the low income states. This will allow them to move away from doing ‘business as usual’, which would tend to focus on traditional sectors like national highways and power projects in the more developed states in the western and southern regions of India. 101. While the infrastructure sector will continue to have large scale investments and the proposed £36m investment remains small in comparison to the total volume needed in the sector, the counterfactual would be that numerous projects in the low income states which have a high potential impact on economic growth and poverty, would remain unrealised. This is both through the direct benefits that the infrastructure projects supported will provide, and the important demonstration effect that the projects would have on the wider community of project promoters, infrastructure financiers and policy makers. 102. This is not to suggest that IDFC will not continue to make investments, or that these sectors and states will not be able to attract private sector capital. However it will continue at a slower pace, and possibly without the additional checks and balances that a DFID programme may be able to introduce in the form of ESG norms, social impact and monitoring and evaluation, as well as inputs on the policy side and trying innovative new products and business models. Stream of benefits, Cost and Benefit Ratio 103. The summary of the stream of benefits, costs and the benefit cost ratio for the option is outlined in the table below. NPV and BCR Option1 Present Value of Incremental Benefits (£) 249,567,175 Present Value of Incremental Costs (£) 120,180,442 NPV at 10% Discount rate 129,386,733 BCR at 10% Discount Rate 2.08 23 Key Sensitivities 104. This appraisal is based on specific assumptions, which have been intentionally kept conservative to allow for real world challenges that may arise during implementation. We have stress-tested scenarios in which the most significant assumptions are weakened to test of the programme would still be a good use of public resources. This includes testing : Whether our assumptions on benefits are too generous or costs are too conservative The leverage ratios of private sector capital are too high The expectation of financial returns to DFID are driving the results The allocation to specific sub sectors is driving the results. 105. The key risk is overestimating the value of indirect benefits; however even at less than half the value of the already conservative assumption in the model this does not affect the outcome of the appraisal. We find that the project benefits must be reduced by over 50% (52%) to reach breakeven. The table below shows the results when benefits are reduced by half, and the BCR remains marginally higher than unity. On the other hand costs will need to increase by nearly 110% for the project to become unviable, assuming benefits remained the same. Sensitivity analysis Option1 Present Value of Incremental Benefits (£) 124,783,588 Present Value of Incremental Costs (£) 120,180,442 NPV at 10% Discount Rate 4,603,146 BCR at 10% Discount Rate 1.04 106. Other key assumptions are also stress tested to see if they change outcomes dramatically. The leverage ratio of private capital is reduced to zero. This is a drastic assumption, and yet we find that the option remain strongly viable with a BCR of over 1.7. However we feel that given risk mitigation measures put in place, and the extremely low likelihood of this scenario, the risk remains hypothetical. 107. Financial losses to DFID do not affect the outcome of the appraisal dramatically unless they start significantly impacting on the social impact the investments expect to achieve. For example, if we funded the investments with grants rather than investments (i.e. assume the full £36 million of DFID capital is lost) our indicative model would still return a positive NPV.) 108. Allocation across the four identified sectors is the last assumption that is tested. We look at the outcomes for the programme if all the resources were in turn allocated to each of the sectors, instead of an equal distribution across them as is currently the case. We find that there is no single sector that is driving the results and all 4 options show a strongly positive NPV when viewed individually. 109. A substantial component of our M&E framework (£1.5 million) will seek to undertake economic appraisals of a selection of infrastructure projects supported by DFID capital. A smaller sub-set of these will be subsequently evaluated to assess whether projected benefits/impacts actually held true. D. What measures can be used to assess Value for Money (VFM) for the intervention? 110. The proposed intervention has strong additionality as it attempts to fill a key gap, while occupying a unique space within the development sphere in India, due to its high impact sectoral focus, its focus on 24 partnering with the private sector and geographical focus on the low income states. The measures that will be used to assess value for money are: - Cost of technical assistance (input level) - Number of people reached with improved infrastructure services - Amount of additional capital mobilised from the private sector (promoter inputs as well as additional investment from other private sources) - Amount of DFID funds (£) invested per infrastructure service delivered from a sample of investments - Recycling of initial invested capital into providing funds for continued operations in the poorer states - Benefit cost ratio (BCR) - Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) 111. The intervention envisages a TA component that will help strengthen IDFC’s systems and structures, including where required, in functions like procurement, ESG and in monitoring and evaluation. Emphasis will also be laid on building and maintaining effective MIS, incorporating information from the various investee companies/clients/projects. This MIS will allow for tracking of various measures outlined above. In addition surveys will be undertaken to measure access to services, economic impact and household level impacts on income. 112. To ensure a systemic approach to improving VFM of the programme, some of the actions we have taken or propose to take are: Ensuring minimal use of public/donor funds, instead leveraging private funds as much as possible. Integrating VFM measures in the logframe, and thus in the annual, mid-term and project completion reviews, agreeing remedial actions if these measures score low. The benchmark for poor VFM will be reach of less than 30% of the targeted beneficiaries per year. Contributing DFID India views and keeping abreast of on-going work on preparing a global DFID guidance note on ‘Measuring and Maximising Value for Money in Infrastructure Programmes,’ and ensuring relevant benchmarks and indicators are used in the partnership. Ensuring procurement contracts integrate VFM indicators and deliverables. In particular, we will adopt the following principles of engagement to ensure results and value for money: - partnerships with institutions committed to quantifying attributable results, systematically assessing, and reducing over time, cost-benefit ratios; use of competitive processes and/or benchmarking to ensure value for money; use of performance against results (and input costs) as an important criterion, to be reviewed annually, for assessing continued DFID support; use of grant funds sparingly to avoid distortions with a preference for loans and equity support where appropriate; avoid duplication and ensure complementarities with existing donor and government funded programmes; establishment of mechanisms to incentivise partners to assess and report on VFM; a combination of financial and development returns will be sought from every investment; once funds are realised from investments, these will be recycled into further investments to obtain another round of new benefits 113. Overall the benchmark for poor VFM will be if two or more purpose level indicators fall short of targets by more than 30% at the Mid Term. In this case, DFID will consider making recommendations to close early components of the programme, including on-going infrastructure partnerships. 114. We have also taken a value for money approach in designing the programme: A preference for moving forward with IDFC initially has been based on objectively assessing the 25 robustness of their systems and capability against other potential partner candidates. A more detailed institutional due diligence exercise will follow to assess institutional risks and mitigating actions. The Management Case shows that IDFC will be incentivised through the capital arrangements to ensure i) commercial viability of the infrastructure projects, ii) fast and efficient project preparation and iii) achievement of development objectives. This is because in many cases the partner will also be taking a financial risk when investing in a project and therefore has a stake in its success. IDFC is seen as a market leader in the Indian infrastructure sector, and is able to provide services at competitive prices. Some of the relevant ratios for IDFC have shown improvement in recent years. For example, the IDFC cost/income ratio for FY12 is 17% in comparison to 21% in FY11. Similarly, the HR/operating income ratio for FY12 is 10% against 12% in the previous year. IDFC is not taking a management fee from DFID to deploy this capital. It is using the concessional line of credit to on lend to projects and will return the capital to DFID on pre agreed terms, taking on project risk on its own balance sheet, thereby exhibiting a strong commitment to the projects supported. E. Summary Value for Money Statement for the preferred option 115. The given intervention represents an effective use of DFID resources as it relies on delivering high impact and essential infrastructure services in under invested regions of India, while leveraging additional private sector resources, and using returnable capital, allowing for it to be used for greater developmental impact. The benefit cost ratios from the preferred option is higher than the alternative doing nothing approach, as well as playing an important role in our broader approach of deploying a variety of instruments across the infrastructure eco system. It is expected to play an effective role in meeting the needs of infrastructure projects, while delivering maximum VFM. 26 Commercial Case A. Clearly state the procurement/commercial requirements for intervention 116. The majority of DFID funds (£38 million) will be deployed as non-grant returnable capital. As per the agreed aid policy between the UK and India, DFID India will seek to partner with “government sponsored institutions” or OECD-DAC registered agencies to promote private sector development in the eight poorest states of India. Our programme partner IDFC is India's leading integrated infrastructure finance player providing end to end infrastructure financing and project implementation services. Besides a commitment to building India's infrastructure, IDFC works closely with government entities and regulators to advise and assist them in formulating policy and regulatory frameworks that support private investment and public-private partnerships in infrastructure development. 117. Procurement Group in DFID has confirmed that DFID rules exempt deployment of non-grant returnable capital (e.g. debt, equity investments) from the EU Procurement Directives. This means that DFID India can contract an existing organisation to manage a programme of nongrant investments (e.g. debt or equity) to the private sector and charge a management fee for this work where appropriate, without going through an OJEU process. For technical assistance (£2 million): 118. i) ii) DFID will procure grant-based services through two main arrangements: Utilising the global DFID Framework Agreement for consultancy services (PEAKS) for urgent due diligence work to assure DFID that its capital will not be exposed to institutional or project-level risks on the environmental, social or governance front. PEAKS was sourced competitively through a full OJEU process. A direct commercial procurement exercise through the OJEU procedure or through the existing framework agreement to select a management consultancy firm or consortium of firms to manage the technical assistance programme during implementation. This firm will be tasked with: (a) developing and implementing a monitoring and evaluation programme; (b) building partner capacity at the institutional and project level; (c) conducting project level due diligence / independent assessments for DFID where appropriate; and (d) identifying and fostering innovations. B. How does the intervention design use competition to drive commercial advantage for DFID? 119. For returnable capital the proposed allocation of capital across partners and instruments within an Infrastructure Sector Approach has been shaped by the recently completed partner assessment exercise that explicitly sought to maximise VFM and development additionality. 120. DFID’s partnership assessment exercise has mirrored the key characteristics of a limited competitive procurement process, a description of which is given below: Potential partners submitted proposals to DFID within a fixed period, following an invitation issued on the same day to all partners. The invitation included terms of reference (including details of criteria to be used to assess quality of bids) and a standard proposal format. Proposals were assessed against pre-agreed and weighted criteria. Recommendations on preferred partners were made only after a pre-agreed deadline had 27 passed. This limited the risks of DFID giving unfair advantage to early mover-type partners. The exercise confirmed IDFC as a strong partner with whom the potential to deliver a debtbased programme was high. Final confirmation (signing of contracts) has yet to happen. This will only happen subject to successful negotiation between DFID and IDFC on a range of key parameters (including development returns; commercial returns etc.). Final confirmation will also be subject to comprehensive and independent due diligence assessments of each preferred partner on environmental, social and governance safeguards. 121. IDFC will be expected to ensure all projects adhere to the minimum environmental, social and governance standards set by DFID India. The partnership proposal exercise demonstrated confidence in IDFC’s own approach towards achieving VFM, including through its selection of investment deals at both the pipeline and final stages (see Management Case). 122. To get the best value for money, results and impact, the contract(s) for managing technical cooperation grant funds will be output focussed with payments linked to achievement of agreed outputs and milestones. The supplier will be asked to provide details of methods proposed in their proposal which would demonstrate what they intend to achieve, how and by when. C. How do we expect the market place will respond to this opportunity? 123. Potential partners in the sector have already demonstrated a strong interest in participating in this initiative by either submitting proposals during the proposal assessment exercise or showing keen on-going high-level interest (Board of Directors). This has created an element of competition amongst partners for DFID capital with more plausible partnership options available (up to five) than that that could be accommodated in our Infrastructure Sector Approach (up to three). 124. Returnable capital: This programme is essentially about strengthening the market for private sector activity in infrastructure in the eight poorest states of India. Successful projects supported with DFID funds will lead to the direct provision of services for beneficiary populations. Successful projects will also demonstrate the viability of infrastructure business models in states and subsectors which have remained under-invested due to high risk perceptions. Projects backed by IDFC would enable additional private capital into these projects and sub sectors within the eight low income states. 125. The total allocation for the grant component will be up to £2 million, and we expect high levels of interest for this opportunity from both domestic as well as international firms, not least because of the strong PPP activity in India in the last 8-10 years and the expectations of national level progress for PPPs over the next five years. A competitive bidding process should give important feedback to DFID about the proposed components within the programme and opportunities for improving further and getting early progress. We expect the bidding process to provide DFID with a strong pool of national (Indian) and international consultants. D. What are the key cost elements that affect overall price? How is value added and how will we measure and improve this? 126. The Management Case sets out the project governance arrangements which will ensure risk is carefully managed and DFID resources are not exposed to unmanageable levels of commercial risk. 127. IDFC is a well-established leader in the sector, with the necessary expertise to manage the risk associated with capital investments. IDFC has robust management structures and project appraisal processes that carefully assess the viability of projects in order to make sound investment decisions. The programme logframe will be a key mechanism to assess project 28 progress. An output-based contract, linked with payments (or disbursements) to milestones/outputs will be agreed with IDFC annually and progress will be measured and monitored every month. Short narrative reports detailing progress against the work plan along with details of actual and forecasted expenditure will be produced at least quarterly. This will enable the Infrastructure Task Team to be fully up to speed with developments including early sight of risks and other issues. Annual review reports, responding to the logframe and project document, will be produced in advance of the annual reviews. 128. For returnable capital through a line of credit the main cost-driver will be around the final cost of DFID capital (balancing requirements for treatment of capital as ODA, with the need to ensure value for money for DFID capital without creating any market distortions). This can be broken down across the following: Exchange rate hedge as part of financing projects in rupee terms Moratorium on payments back to DFID Tenor of loan Interest rates charged to partner (accounting for ODA-treatment requirements) Risk profile of projects that might benefit from DFID support (ensuring that DFID concessionality translates into support for less bankable projects in the poorest states) 129. Concessionality of DFID funds might also be translated into IDFC providing financial commitments to key TA-related activities such as promoting Equator Principles or hosting major events. No management fee is expected to be paid by DFID to IDFC. 130. For technical assistance, the main costs will be; Service provider management fee Cost of services 131. Key cost drivers will be around the cost of services delivered by identified service providers, and the prices of related goods such as travel and transport. The project will ensure best value for money by adopt principles of engagement that ensure results (See ‘Measures to achieve VfM’ above). E. What is the intended Procurement Process to support contract award? 132. For returnable capital, DFID India has conducted a competitive partnership proposal exercise to identify preferred partners. Details are described in Section B of this Case. 133. For technical assistance, competitive procurement procedures (OJEU) or an existing Framework Agreement will be adopted for the implementation phase. For urgent preimplementation work, a call down contract will be used based on DFID procurement guidelines. DFID India will benefit from the competitive process managed by Procurement Group, including negotiating competitive costs of services with the winning consortium. F. How will contract & supplier performance be managed through the life of the intervention? 134. Returnable capital component: The final terms of the DFID contract with IDFC will define the investment strategy and criteria applicable to every individual investment made by IDFC with DFID funds. The investment criteria will set out issues like the objective of the investment, sectoral preferences, geographic focus, size of investments, types of instruments. An credit appraisal committee may be set up. DFID will not be actively involved in the financial/commercial 29 appraisal of each individual investment but will have veto powers for any intended investment that does not comply with DFID’s intended objectives. Investments will be made within the first few years of the programme and thereafter the partnership will focus will be on supporting completion of infrastructure projects and managing returns back to DFID. 135. IDFC will be directly responsible for undertaking due diligence assessments, selecting infrastructure projects/firms to finance and, where appropriate, providing smaller infrastructure firms with the required managerial, technical and market inputs. Periodic statements of performance of infrastructure projects, independent financial audits and financial performance of DFID funds will be provided to DFID. While IDFC will be fully responsible to ensure compliance against Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) benchmarks of projects, DFID will conduct independent audits to check adherence to standards as well as assess the impact on poor people. These responsibilities will be written into the term sheet, which will provide clear guidance on DFID monitoring requirements. Management Information Systems will be established for each component of the project and these are expected to be audited on an annual basis by external auditors. 136. For technical assistance, performance-based terms of reference (TORs) will be used as the basis for the contract with the selected service provider. The service provider will be required to produce a work-plan for the early inception period (6 – 9 months) of the programme, setting out early activities against the results and outputs in the logframe with measurable indicators. This will form the basis not only for management of the programme by the service provider but also for performance based management of the service provider by DFID. Subsequently, the service provider will submit and agree annual work-plans with DFID, including describing how key deliverables stack up in support of key milestones in the programme logframe. The service provider will be expected to submit reports at regular intervals (quarterly) providing summaries of progress against the work-plan. Quarterly review meetings with the supplier will be held to track progress of the TA component. Indirect procurement: A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of arrangement the right one for this intervention, with this development partner? 137. An investment arrangement with IDFC is likely to see DFID funds being used to indirectly procure goods and services at the level of the project developer. Commercial incentives associated with the developer’s business model and IDFC’s business model e.g. to maintain economy and efficiency in allocation and use of resources and to manage their own financial/commercial risks, are aligned with DFID’s own interests in VFM. 138. A line of credit arrangement with IDFC will enable DFID to test an innovative approach to mobilising private investment for pro-poor sub-sectors in the poorest states. IDFC is judged to be one of the strongest partners available to DFID and, as a leading Indian finance company, has good networks and good access to investment opportunities: this will help the partnership move rapidly from design to implementation. B. Value for money through procurement 139. The key procurement issue for DFID is the level of assurance we will have about IDFC selecting the right projects/developers to invest in. DFID will draw assurance from: - The arrangements DFID will put in place to develop and manage the performance of its contract with IDFC (see Section F of this Case above); 30 - - The strength of IDFC’s institutional systems, including as judged by DFID’s own recent partnership assessment exercise. For example, IDFC has a comprehensive enterprise risk management framework that assesses the extent of risks (market, credit and operational risk) for its aggregate credit portfolio. We will examine IDFC’s institutional readiness in more detail as part of an institutional due diligence exercise and ahead of finalising the contract with IDFC. DFID’s own role in the investment decisions to be taken by IDFC and DFID’s own independent assessments of the environmental, social and governance aspects of individual projects. Financial Case A. What are the costs, how are they profiled and how will you ensure accurate forecasting? 140. A total of up to £38 million will be allocated to the programme over the next five years (2013 – 2018). The summary budget is provided below: Figures in £ million Component Year 1 (2013/14) Returnable Capital or RC Technical Co-operation (Grant) Investing in 5 Infrastructure Projects TA – (i) build capacity; (ii) build pipeline project; (iii) bring about innovation and (iv) monitoring & evaluation etc; TC Year 2 (2014/2015) Year 3 (2015/16) Year 4 (2016/17) Year 5 (2017/18) RC RC RC RC TC 17 TC TC TOTAL TC 36 14 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.25 141. While adequate funds are available in DFID India’s aid framework, following the approval of DFID India’s Operational Plan 2011-15, annual disbursements will be agreed depending on availability of DFID funds. Approval is sought for 5 years (with re-deployable funds returning to DFID over a 12 -15 year timeframe), however, any funding beyond the Operational Plan period will be subject to DFID India’s policy on aid post-2015 and will be reviewed prior to the close of this parliamentary cycle in 2015. B. How will it be funded: capital/programme/admin? 142. From the programme allocation of £38 million; up to £2 million will be provided from programme resources and up to £36 million will be provided from programme capital in the form 31 of new returnable capital investment instruments. 143. The arrangements for this - including for ODA scoring and for DFID’s accounts – are still being finalised. Following agreement these will be clearly detailed in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between DFID and its partners. A legal firm is being contracted to support DFID India to ensure that the legal documentation and financial agreements are drafted to ensure DFID’s access to detailed information needed to effectively monitor and evaluate the investment portfolio. 144. Any capital assets procured under the TA support of this programme will be treated in accordance with DFID procedures and declared on an annual basis. Should assets remain at the end of the programme, an exit strategy will be agreed with DFID. C. How will funds be paid out? 145. For returnable capital, a contract will be signed with IDFC Ltd. Funds will be paid out based on legal and financing terms agreed with IDFC. 146. Partners will be funded in tranches, with funds invested as debt with returns (profit or loss) as agreed with DFID. Details of MOUs and loan arrangements will be worked out jointly with IDFC. At the end of the project funds will be returned to DFID or a fund nominated by DFID. 147. For technical assistance, an OJEU contract or a contract using the existing framework will be signed between DFID and the appointed service provider to (a) develop and implement a monitoring and evaluation programme (b) build private sector capacity and (c) undertake projectlevel due diligence or other forms of assessments identified by DFID. 148. For the TA contract, DFID will reimburse the service provider on satisfactory performance of milestones achieved. Funding tranches will be agreed with the service provider based on the terms of reference for the implementation phase and more specifically on the milestones for year 1. It is expected that funds will be reimbursed on a quarterly basis. D. What is the assessment of financial risk and fraud? 149. The partnership assessment exercise conducted by DFID (detailed in Section B of the Commercial Case and in the Strategic Case) has given us early assurance of the limited financial or fraud risks associated with a partnership with IDFC. We judge that the financial or credit risk to DFID is likely to be low given the solid credit ratings given to IDFC by reputable credit rating agencies. 150. IDFC is a leading blue-chip company in India and as a publicly listed firm, it is required by law to publish its accounts and undergo regular audits. Its Board Members comprise a selection of leading professionals, including a senior member from the Ministry of Finance, Indian national and international members. 151. Its commitment to robust corporate governance, including on managing financial risk and fraud, is illustrated by the following: it has integrated risk management systems, a strong code of conduct (with environmental, social and governance issues or ESG embedded in it), a commitment to exploring adoption of international ESG benchmarks (Equator Principles), an established whistle blower policy, a disclosure code and fair practices code. IDFC’s historical relationship with IFC (equity and debt) and CDC (equity) has enabled it to strengthen its systems, particularly on the ESG front. 152. DFID carried out a rapid anti-corruption and counter fraud assessment (ACCF) in September 2012 of a selection of its current and proposed programmes in India including the proposed 32 partnership with IDFC, as part of the process to develop its own Anti-Corruption and Counter Fraud Strategy. The assessment judged that while the risks were normal for the sector, the following safeguards for DFID’s capital would apply: - DFID’s due diligence assessments at the institutional (IDFC) and project (developer) level. The due diligence will include thorough assessments of the financial management capability of IDFC and the borrower/developers including counter-fraud capability. DFID will also carry out site visits and spot checks. - Application and monitoring of DFID India’s ESG framework: DFID India’s ESG framework will be used to assess compliance by infrastructure projects and their promoters to a minimum benchmark of standards, including on the business integrity and financial risk front. Stretching targets will be established and support provided to encourage stronger compliance, closer to international standards. - DFID contract with IDFC and, possibly those between the IDFC and its borrowers/developers to include benchmarks on financial management, fiduciary risks, corporate governance and business ethics. E. How will expenditure be monitored, reported, and accounted for? 153. For returnable capital a detailed annual work plan based on partners’ investment plans will be agreed with partners. Quarterly progress reports will be submitted, accompanied by a joint review to assess the progress. More frequent reviews may be required in the critical early months of the programme. 154. Utilisation certificates for the earlier tranches of DFID funds will be a pre-requisite ahead of DFID making further financial disbursements. Programme partners will undertake an external audit of project funds on an annual basis. An annual audited statement of accounts will be submitted to DFID no later than four months after the end of each financial year. 155. For technical assistance, short narrative reports detailing progress against the work plan along with details of actual and forecasted expenditure will be produced quarterly. At the start of each financial year, detailed annual budgets against milestones will be agreed - this will form the basis of monitoring and reporting for the year. 33 Management Case A. What are the Management Arrangements for implementing the intervention? DFID India’s Infrastructure Task Team 156. DFID India’s Infrastructure Task Team will hold responsibility for managing the relationship with IDFC, TA contractors and other programme stakeholders (e.g. national and state-level government representatives) important for the effective delivery, monitoring and evaluation of the programme’s objectives. The Task Team is composed of DFID India’s Senior Infrastructure Adviser, Infrastructure Finance Adviser, Economics Adviser and Project Officer, with support from Social Development, Governance and Climate Change Advisers. It will be the Task Team’s responsibility to ensure that the allocation of programme funds across specific infrastructure projects maximises demonstration and development additionality, as well as maximising VFM. DFID interaction with IDFC 157. The IDFC partnership will be underpinned by a contract signed up by DFID and IDFC. The contract will set out the detailed legal and financial terms of the partnership, define roles and responsibilities, obligations and relative legal positions. 158. A term sheet will set out the material terms and conditions of the relationship. This will include the requirements that need to be fulfilled for an investment to be eligible for DFID capital. The contract will set out that any projects considered for DFID capital will be referred to DFID for review at a minimum of two points along the IDFC project approval pathway: o Firstly, details of projects in the early stage of development should be referred to the Task Team for consideration. The Task Team will make an early assessment of whether or not the project meets DFID funding criteria. o Secondly, once IDFC has assessed the commercial viability, it will be contractually obliged to refer any project considered eligible for DFID capital to the Task Team for final approval. 159. Flowchart charting decision flow for IDFC’s lending business and where DFID expects to influence decisions associated with its own capital DFID engagement at project pipeline stage Project opportunities identified through staff networks. Environmental screening of promising projects conducted. Deal Selection Committee decides which projects to move forward. DFID decision on financing specific projects Head of Credit (who is also Chief Risk Officer) recommends projects for IDFC investment Decision Board (Chief Risk Officer, Chief Financial Officer, MD/CEO and Head of Legal) make recommendation to next and final stage Credit Committee, chaired by Chairman of IDFC, makes final decision on all projects valued at £50 million or below. 34 Detailed IDFC due diligence conducted of projects covering commercial, technical, political and environmental aspects Management of Funds 160. DFID will extend a line of credit at ODA-compliant rates of interest and other terms for project debt financing to IDFC, namely on development and demonstration additionality requirements. IDFC will hold responsibility for investment decisions and bear the credit risk i.e. if a developer defaults on a loan financed with DFID funds, IDFC will still be required to pay back the loan (principal) and interest to DFID. 161. DFID will not influence IDFC’s decisions or assessments about the commercial viability of projects. Projects will only be considered eligible for DFID funding once IDFC has completed due diligence assessments of the projects. Once a decision by DFID has been taken to fund specific projects, DFID funds will be released by IDFC in a phased manner as individual or sets of infrastructure projects are approved. 162. IDFC will only disburse funds to projects after its Credit Committee has made a decision and after loan documents have been signed by the project developers. The first disbursement by IDFC must be signed off by a number of key personnel, including the Environmental Officer. On an average, between10-15 disbursements are made per project over a 3–5 year period. For all projects with high environmental impacts (Category A projects and high-impact Category B projects), annual site visits are conducted by specialist IDFC personnel. Technical assistance 163. The technical assistance component of the project will be supervised by the Infrastructure Task Team and be divided into two stages: Firstly; pre-implementation technical assistance to undertake critical preparatory work to ensure the pace of the programme remains on track, particularly in the first year of implementation: i) Conducting a pre-investment due diligence assessments of proposed partners to evaluate the appropriateness of the agency to effectively support DFID India’s infrastructure objectives. ii) Reviewing the robustness of the due diligence process followed by selected partners for their projects (sectors/sub-sectors), especially with regard to environmental, social and governance (ESG) norms. Following this, to identify, plan and begin to address the key capacity constraints (systems, staff; etc) in DFID’s partners on ESG appraisal issues. iii) Ensuring that projects benefitting from DFID support undergo rigorous environmental, social and governance assessments by conducting independent appraisals (including by visiting project sites for up to 12 projects by the technical assistance service provider and Infrastructure Task Team members). 164. A professional consultant will be contracted to carry out the first stage of the technical assistance component. DFID’s new global Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods competitively-agreed Framework Agreement will be used to identify, manage and quality assure organisations and individuals with appropriate technical expertise. The contracted organisation will carry out an urgent set of tasks including conducting environmental, social and governance due diligence of actual projects for co-financing in the first year of the programme. Their expertise will also be used to help DFID conduct due diligence assessments of partner organisations. Secondly; the full implementation technical assistance programme will aim to: i) Develop and deliver a monitoring and evaluation programme at the project and portfolio level; ii) Take forward work started during pre-implementation technical assistance on ESG standards; and support compliance of partner organisations with those standards. iii) Drive innovation in infrastructure development in the poorest states by conducting pilots using new financial, contractual and technological approaches. 35 165. The main body of the TA component will be carried out by expert consultants selected through a competitive tender process compliant with OJEU standards. The selected organisation will continue to work with partners on ESG standards as well as take forward new tasks highlighted above. The expert consultants will be supervised on a day to day basis by the Infrastructure Task Team. They will be accountable to DFID for delivery of results against the programme document. 166. The consultants will have the financial delegation required to utilise DFID funds where appropriate and will have the powers to contract, hire staff and manage funds and accounts. They will drive implementation of the TA component, address routine technical and operational management issues, ensure coherence across components and track progress across TA-related outputs. B. What are the risks and how these will be managed? 167. The programme is considered to be medium risk and high impact. The key risks are highlighted below: Infrastructure Partnership Programme risks and mitigation measures # Risk Likelihood / Impact Mitigation PROJECT RISKS 1 Lack of pipeline of DFID will facilitate PPPs in our chosen subsectors Med / High bankable projects by leveraging our relationships with the state governments in our three partner states. Existing DFID TA-based programmes on growth and governance helping to improve investment climate in poorest states. 2 DFID finance fails to Assessments of project viability will be carried out Low / Med crowd in investors by IDFC whose wider institutional incentives are independent of DFID’s. IDFC will bring expert knowledge and skills in assessing projects and sourcing financiers other than DFID. Projects will be run on a co-investment basis. TA to support developers to make projects more financially viable. 3 DFID investments fail This is a new and innovative way of undertaking Med / Med to make a financial development that carries with it the risk of our return. financial returns being lower than that from commercial investments. However, there is potential for significant developmental gains. Debt invested through IDFC can be expected to be returned to DFID with interest because IDFC will take on the project’s credit risk. IDFC is reputable and has long standing experience in the infrastructure financing sector along with a good 36 credit rating. DFID’s investment policy, as agreed with IDFC, must clearly articulate the level of risk acceptable, in order to guide partners in the choice of investments. 4 Investments fail to The project will work in the poorest states and Low / High have pro-poor impact specifically target infrastructure sub-sectors that are pro-poor. Our ESG framework will also help in improving pro poor benefits, especially with its social development indicators. IDFC has expertise in managing risk and identifying projects that are likely to deliver financial return. By holding veto rights over how DFID capital is invested, we can ensure that only pro-poor subsectors with potential for real development impact are financed with DFID capital. PARTNER RISKS 5 Lack of transparency or corruption in decision making processes at project level DFID capital will not be used to support projects or Med / Med organisations we have concerns about, or which do not conform to our basic ESG framework. Contractual agreements will include strict rules about openness in decision making processes. Technical assistance to support organisations to promote good business practices and improve standards of governance. 6 Partners fail to adhere to fiduciary, social and environmental safeguards on investments, adversely impacting DFID’s reputation. Working with partners to promote adherence to Low / High EQUATOR principles. Environmental, Social and Governmental assessment framework principles to feed into project selection. Technical assistance component to work with partners on the implementation of ESG principles. DFID will also hold veto right over which projects are financed with DFID capital. ECONOMIC RISKS Indian economic position makes project unfeasible (interest rates, growth slowdown, taxation policy). 7 Economic fundamentals reasonably strong in India. Low / High Policy shift that deprioritises infrastructure is unlikely even in a worsening economic environment. In a worsening economic climate, DFID capital may become even more attractive for financiers and promoters. Currency instability Hedging will mitigate losses caused by relative Medium / Low affects financial currency value fluctuations. viability of project. 37 POLICY RISKS 8 Policy environment restricts implementation of projects. Existing DFID TA-based programmes on growth and governance helping to improve investment climate in poorest states. Med / Low Within the wider DFID India Infrastructure Sector Approach, a dedicated TA programme is being scoped to consider how best to support the investment climate for infrastructure investments. 9 Political will turns against the use of user fees. Existing DFID TA-based programmes on growth and governance helping to improve investment climate in poorest states. Low / Med Within the wider DFID India Infrastructure Sector Approach, a dedicated TA programme is being scoped to consider how best to support the investment climate for infrastructure investments ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS 10 Climate risks or disasters adversely affect investments and/or erode programme impact. ESG assessments will look at the risk of Low / Med environmental and other disasters when assessing the viability of the project. C. What conditions apply (for financial aid only)? 168. Not applicable as the programme does not involve financial aid to government. D. How will progress and results be monitored, measured and evaluated? 169. Progress will be measured against a results-based M&E Framework designed by DFID India and in consultation with external infrastructure finance and delivery specialists. The framework will capture results associated with both commercial and development returns. Details of quarterly progress will be submitted to the Programme Advisory Board. In addition: Input to Output level 170. A detailed MIS system will be put in place to track the status and contribution of individual projects. In addition, regular monitoring of the projects and partner institutions will be carried out to ensure adherence to the minimum benchmarks of the ESG framework as well as to monitor progress against stretching ESG targets. Output to Outcome level 171. Annual and mid-year reviews will monitor progress and follow-up against logframe targets and milestones (comprising a selection of the results in the results framework), and will be conducted where possible with independent parties. Outcome to Impact level 172. Annual and mid-year reviews will monitor progress. The programme will also identify within the 38 first 9 months the priority impact evaluation and research priorities to run alongside (and embedded in) the core programme. 173. An early priority will be to conduct economic appraisal exercises, alongside routine due diligence exercises, for a selection of projects. A selection (or all) of these projects will then be assessed for impact. In this way, useful new knowledge about projected and actual impacts, as well as useful new knowledge about implementing projects in under-invested sub-sectors using returnable capital will be generated. 174. Subject to resources being available within the TA component, additional impact evaluation studies might include topics such as the role of infrastructure in supporting inclusive growth in specific states; and the benefits (commercial and developmental) and costs of applying global rather than national benchmarks for ESG in specific infrastructure projects to judge where the returns might be greatest. Lograme Quest No of logframe for this intervention: 39 ANNEX 1: CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR OPTION 1 Negative impacts: Are the objectives of the project likely to be at risk from; Climate change: Risks to the focus states from climatic changes are largely known. This may pose a risk to project objectives, as Enhanced frequency of droughts (as projected particularly for Rajasthan, parts of UP and MP, Orissa) will negatively affect operations and viability of businesses financed under the initiative. For example, droughts will reduce availability of biomass and water that are inputs for energy generation, agricultural production will decline, leaving less for utilisation of the agricultural infrastructure being created etc. Is the proposed intervention likely to contribute to: Enhanced frequency and intensity of floods, as projected particularly for Bihar, UP, MP, Chattisgarh and Orissa will pose a serious damage to the physical existence to the infrastructure like roads, urban services, power plants etc. However, if designed carefully the project objectives could still be achieved even if the projected climatic changes come true. Environmental degradation: A large area of the project states is under one or the other form of serious environmental degradation, such as water depletion, soil alkalinity, land degradation etc. However, if adequate practices are adopted from the design stages itself, most of these issues can be addressed for the specific projects. Climate change: Some of the focus areas of the intervention such as clean energy, solid waste management will actually reduce/avoid GHG emissions. On the other hand, other infrastructure initiatives such as agricultural infrastructure, roads, other urban services will lead to GHG emissions and hence contribute to climate change. Given the necessity of this infrastructure to address poverty, a prudent strategy will be that adequate mechanisms are put in place to ensure that this infrastructure is as low carbon as possible. Environmental degradation: As stated in the Appraisal Case, infrastructure projects in each of the sectors will carry their own environmental risks. For example, production of biomass for power generation, if not managed carefully, can be at unsustainable rates, ecosystems can be damaged, large amounts of water can be consumed, and net greenhouse emissions may occur. Similarly, solid waste management through landfills can pollute the ground water and lead to methane emissions. Agricultural cold storage facilities are often reliant on diesel based power, leading to GHG emissions. Road construction poses known risks such as clearing of vegetation, soil erosion, localized flooding from siltation of drainage canals and waterways etc. The programme will consider putting in place mechanisms whereby: i) Infrastructure projects comply with the environmental safeguards ii) Preference is given to projects that ensure environmental sustainability. Increased vulnerability of communities to climate change / environmental degradation and shocks: This is not evident apriori. Positive impacts: Could the outcomes of the intervention be enhanced by: Could the proposed Improved management of natural resources: Longer term sustainability of many of the infrastructure projects financed as part of the programme will be critically dependent on good management of natural resources. For example, evidence has suggested that acceptability of solid waste management projects is often determined by their impact on surface / groundwater resources, odour generated, utility of material recycled etc. Similarly, for biomass power generation projects, fuel supply is assured only when biomass is harvested sustainably, water resources are not exhausted/polluted etc. It is thus important that the financial institutions undertaking the due diligence for financing the identified projects strictly adhere to application of best practices in environmental management. Tackle climate change: the intervention certainly provides a very good 40 intervention help: opportunity to support low carbon pro-poor development. Consideration needs to be given to two aspects in the detailed intervention design: Maximising opportunities for low carbon infrastructure: As mentioned above, some of the focus areas such as clean energy, solid waste management as part of the basic urban services etc. do lead to direct emission reductions. This intervention can also encourage the other infrastructure projects to be designed/operated in a manner that is low carbon in construction, energy use, etc. For this purpose, mechanisms must be built in to give preference to projects that adopt low carbon practices over others that are more traditional in design/operations Infrastructure to be designed to withstand extreme events and reduce vulnerability: Since the project states are projected to be prone to more extreme events, this intervention must actively encourage consideration of climatic changes in the infrastructure design so that such infrastructure is not destroyed or rendered inoperative in the event of an extreme event like flood or drought. Experiences generated from these projects will also be of great use both nationally and internationally. Improve environmental management: The intervention will help improve environmental management, since it will potentially support projects on solid waste management, clean energy generation etc. To tap the full potential in this intervention for improved environmental management, it is recommended that (a) the partner Financial institutions are encouraged to adopt best practices in sustainable financing like the Equator Principles or UNEP Financing Initiative and (b) adequate environmental safeguards must be built into each of the projects so that sustainable levels of resource use or adequate treatment of pollutant discharge are ensured. Reduce vulnerability and / or build resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change / environmental degradation and shocks: It is well documented that access to physical capital like markets, energy and agricultural infrastructure play a major role in improving people’s incomes, enabling asset safety, enhancing access to banking facilities, credit and insurance mechanisms etc. This intervention will therefore in any case be useful in improving people’s adaptive capacity. However, it needs to be ensured that the infrastructure is designed in a manner that it does not lead to deprivation from these safety nets in case of an event like flood. 41 ANNEX 2: CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT CHECKLIST Impact of Climate Change on Intervention Positive Opportunity for economic growth through development and dissemination of technologies Y/ N Detail Y Climate Change considerations have triggered several national and state level initiatives to promote technologies like renewable energy, less material intensity in construction etc. At the same time, many financial players have also earmarked funds for investments in low carbon areas. The Infrastructure Debt Partnership Programme, may benefit from this momentum and may be able to leverage significant private capital in infrastructure projects that deploy cutting edge low carbon technologies and lead to economic growth Opportunity for job creation Y Increased revenue generating opportunities Opportunity for new agriculture and livelihood options Negative In a climate sensitive area? Measure Technical Assistance to states may also be focussed on support in creating enabling conditions for private sector investment for low carbon infrastructure Appropriate instruments for facilitating enhanced investments in areas such as clean energy to be identified. No specific additional measure required. Y Climate change may not provide job-creation opportunities directly. However, low carbon infrastructure such as clean energy generation, solid waste management projects etc. will lead to job creation directly and indirectly. Not applicable N Not applicable No specific measure required Y Risks to the focus states from climatic changes are largely known. This may pose a risk to project objectives, as Enhanced frequency of droughts (as projected particularly for Rajasthan, parts of UP and MP, Orissa) will negatively affect operations and viability of businesses financed under the initiative. For example, droughts will reduce availability of biomass and water that are inputs for energy generation, agricultural production will decline, leaving less for utilisation of the agricultural infrastructure being created etc. Enhanced frequency and intensity of floods, as projected particularly for Bihar, UP, MP, Chattisgarh and Orissa will pose a serious damage to the physical existence to the infrastructure like roads, urban services, power plants etc. 42 Partner financial institutions must be encouraged to incorporate climate change considerations in their investment criteria Training modules on how to incorporate climate change aspects in specific infrastructure design and operation may be developed and trainings imparted. This programme must generate strong evidence on how incorporation of climate change considerations leads to modifications in infrastructure designs, what are the changes in the capital and operational expenditures etc. This will be very useful for infrastructure projects within India and also for estimates for adaptation financing through the global climate In an area subject to frequent climatic shocks / variability (floods/droughts/temperatur e) Y In an area where climate change could lead to conflict Y Community has poor capacity to deal with or adapt to climate change or shocks Y 3 All the project states are subject to frequent climatic shocks. Western and South western parts of Uttar Pradesh and northern and western parts of Madhya Pradesh have been receiving lower rainfall in the last decade or so, causing drought situations. Changes in flood patterns have been witnessed in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. There is now a greater intensity of flash floods in UP, with even small rivers causing extensive damage. Increasing instances of river flooding in Bihar are also being linked to climatic changes. Cropping patterns are changing and pulses (once a major crop in the area and a major source of protein) are not grown due to longer periods of water logging, which disrupts the whole crop cycle and production, even in the rabi season, is severely affected. Trends in the last two decades have shown Orissa is already facing the impacts of climate change. Out of average 1500 mm rainfall in the state, 500 mm to 700 mm rainfall is now occurring within a span of 3-4 days (as against 70 rainy days on an average), which is causing severe flood and drought in subsequent days. within last 18 years (Between 1990 to 2008), Orissa has experienced 12 years of flood, 5 years of drought, one Super Cyclone and many depressions and cyclones So far, it is not expected that climate change could be a major driver for any conflict in the project states. However, many parts of the project states are already conflict ridden due to the Naxalite-Maoist insurgency. 54 of India’s 60 insurgency affected districts fall in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh. While the insurgency is largely due to lack of local people's access to forest land and produce and the distribution of benefits from mining and hydro power developments, extreme events enhanced by climate change may lead to further deprivation and enhancement of conflict. It is not clear how this may affect the effectiveness of the intervention, since it is quite likely that most of the specific infrastructure projects supported under the initiative will be in areas that are not conflict ridden. Districts in all the eight project states have been identified as being amongst the highest in India in terms of social vulnerability, in a study which examined exposure to the effects of climate change and economic globalisation3. A key negative effect that can be expected is extreme events like floods, cyclones and droughts may reduce TERI 2003, An Approach to assessing vulnerability and coping strategies 43 agreements Same as above Financial Institutions often already take such issues into account in their investment decisions. The Environmental and Social Framework agreed with the partner Financial Institutions must agree of mechanisms to determine that specific projects should not in any way enhance the conflicts or strategies are built in the project design to mitigate the conflict risks. No specific additional measure required agricultural production, putting in danger viability of agricultural enterprises and assets supported under this programme. Programme dependant on specific climatic condition (agriculture, aquaculture) Climate sensitive policies / laws / regulations result in social / development impacts N Not Applicable Not Applicable N All project states are are formulating state level action plans on climate change. Additionally, activities under different missions of National Action Plan on Climate Change are underway. However, no negative impacts on social development as a result of these are foreseen No specific measure required 44 ANNEX 3: INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT OF PARTNERS OPERATING IN MORE THAN ONE INFRASTRUCTURE SUB-SECTOR. SBI is the largest and the oldest commercial bank in India. It is owned by the Government of India (GoI). It has the largest network of branches extending into the frontier districts and villages across India and is the preeminent state lending institution in the eight low income states. SBI has 73.2% stake held by the Government of India. SBI has 100% ownership of SBI Capital Markets Ltd. which in turn has 100% ownership of SBI Cap Ventures Ltd (SVL), the proposed financial intermediary for DFID India’s infrastructure work on the equity side. SBI is India’s leading domestic lender, constituted under the State Bank of India Act 1955 by the Parliament of India to address the financial and banking needs of Indian citizens, corporates and to be an implementation partner on the Government of India’s reform and financial inclusion agenda. In spite of its vast financial resources, it is constraint by the regulatory limitations applicable to banks (shorter loan tenors than the need; considerable bank funds being blocked for other purposes under the central bank regulations). IDFC and IIFCL are non-banking finance companies and are especially designed to meet some of the regulatory limitations facing the infrastructure sector. Whereas IIFCL is wholly owned by GoI, IDFC has significant GoI stake (approximately 37%). IIFCL was set up in 2006 to catalyse long term debt for PPP infrastructure projects. IDFC, established in 1997, has longer experience and is equipped with a wider mandate and choice of financial instruments. IDFC Ltd. is seen as an institution capable of engaging in innovative financing for infrastructure and helping other institutions raise funds for infrastructure. It can support infrastructure projects in critical areas, including through provision of equity, which is not easily available to such projects. It works closely with government entities and regulators to advise them on formulating policy and regulatory frameworks that support private investment and public-private partnerships in infrastructure development. IDFC’s other strengths include its integrated risk management systems, strong code of conduct (ESG embedded in it), commitment to exploring adoption of Equator Principles and established whistle blower policy and fair practices code. IDFC has received lines of credit from IFC in the recent past and its third Private Equity Fund for infrastructure projects has benefited from IFC and CDC investments. PIDG, a multi donor organisation, was set up in 2002 to overcome market and institutional failures constraining private sector participation in infrastructure development in developing countries. Its mandate being so close to the project objectives distinguishes it among the partners being considered under this project. Two recent reviews of its performance – DFID’s Multilateral Aid Review (MAR) of October 2010 and Australian MAR (March 2012) – have rated its focus on poor countries; organisational capabilities; financial resources management; cost and value consciousness; delivery of results; and climate change and environmental sustainability as ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’. The DFID MAR assessed the PIDG performance on transparency and accountability as ‘satisfactory’ (score 2 on a scale of 1-4). The more recent Australian MAR rated PIDG against this criterion as strong. However, these assessments have stressed the need to strengthen transparency at the level of PIDG’s business partners and to tighten some aspects of the accountability chain from donors to the PIDG Programme Management Unit to Facility Board to Facility Management. PIDG currently has limited scale in India and is expanding coverage across low income states and pro-poor sub-sectors identified for investment by DFID India’s Infrastructure programme. . 45 ANNEX 4: CONCESSIONALITY OF DFID CAPITAL AND DRAFT TERMS OF DEBT FINANCING BY DFID Concessionality DFID proposes to provide concessional funds to IDFC in order to incentivise IDFC to fund projects in difficult sub-sectors (e.g. agricultural storage and logistics, off-grid power, transport and core urban services) in India’s eight low income states. These are sub-sectors and geographies where mainstream capital is currently not flowing because of a variety of market failures outlined in the business case. In determining the degree of concessionality, ODA-compliance (as determined by OECD-DAC guidance) of DFID capital is a key factor. The DAC model notes that for loans, the collective impact of interest rate, tenor, grace period must be equivalent to the loan having a grant element of 25% of total capital for it to be ODA-compliant. The task team has solicited views from FCPD to confirm these terms comply with DAC guidelines. The loan agreement with IDFC Ltd. will only be signed after receiving confirmation from FCPD that the pricing of the loan and the borrower (IDFC) conform to ODA requirements4. The table below compares loan terms of developmental and commercial organisations operating in India. Since DFID returnable capital programmes are of tenors ranging from 12 – 15 years, unlike other development agencies such as the World Bank and KfW which lend for up to 30 years, the interest rate charged by DFID needs to be kept relatively low (between 1 3% per annum in pound sterling terms) to qualify as ODA. With IDFC likely to bear the cost of currency hedging (because DFID systems do not currently have the bandwidth to manage this risk e.g. administering currency swaps), the effective rates translate to 7-9% per annum in rupee terms, which is close to commercial rates in the market, and comparable to Reserve Bank of India’s priority lending rates (LIBOR + 250bps) currently translating to around 9-9.5% in rupee terms. Rate of Interest Benchmarks Organisation RoI (%) Multilateral Foreign Currency World Bank (IDA) 0-2.80% World Bank (IBRD) LIBOR+ (0.28%-1.05%) IFC 3-4% over IFCs cost of funds ADB LIBOR+ (0.33%-1.4%) GoI Institution INR IREDA 11-13.70% NHB Minimum 10% HUDCO 12-16.5% PFC 12-14% NSDC 6% SIDBI 12.5-16.5% Commercial IDFC 8 to 12% SBI 8 to 12% IIFCL 8 to 12% LIBOR refers to 6 month USD LIBOR Y = Yes, N = No 4 Tenor (yrs) Guarantee 25-40 7-20 Upto 20 upto 25 Y Y N Y Upto 10 Upto 15 Upto 15 Upto 10 Upto 10 Upto 5 N N N N N N Upto 10 Upto 10 Upto 10 N N N DFID will need to seek HMT approval for use of Non Grant Financial Instruments. We will do this via FCPD.. 46 The information presented shows that multilateral organisations even after allowing for foreign currency hedging cost, lend at rates just under commercial rates or borrowing rates of Government of India institutions. While a partner like IDFC is unlikely to access massively cheaper capital through DFID, the tenor of DFID capital (12-15 years) is much more attractive than tenors routinely available in the market (3-5 years). To the extent there is an element of concessionality to DFID’s capital, DFID India expects the concessionality to incentivise IDFC to extend its investment activities in projects perceived to be more risky and/or less profitable. The concessionality element is expected to cover the additional development outcomes that the programme expects to deliver and meet the cost of assuming the additional risk associated with achieving those outcomes. Secondly, the final cost of capital in rupee terms (up to 9%) is not substantially lower than the range of costs in the market (between 9% and 12%). The total volume provided by DFID is also relatively low when compared to the wider financing volumes in India’s infrastructure sectors, especially for large-scale projects like airports and underground rail. We therefore judge that the risk of market distortion or ‘crowding out’ capital is low. Draft standard terms for debt financing by DFID is presented below: Lender: DFID Borrower (partner) IDFC Line of Credit (Amount) £36 million Rate of Interest: 1-3%5 (payable annually) on £36 million / amount drawn Principal Drawdown: Last draw down by March 31, 2015. Quarterly/annual drawdowns on the basis of certified statements evidencing onlending as per investment policy and other terms agreed Principal Repayments: Moratorium up to 3 years; till March 31, 2016. Repayments from April 30, 2016 - March 31, 202x (to be agreed with the Partner) Securities/Collaterals6 : Foreign Exchange Risk: Partner to bear risks/cost of sovereign currency fluctuations during the tenor of instrument Return of Capital: Any repayments/prepayments of on-lending to be returned to DFID (or redeployed into another round of on-lending with the prior agreement of DFID-India) None proposed Other Standard Clauses Agreements with partner (e.g. IDFC) shall include investment policy details including the following elements: 5 Based on DAC-ODA model, to be negotiated with the partner Securities/collateral maybe proposed in case of a weak/un-rated partner (although not currently envisaged in the case for IDFC partnership) 6 47 Use of Proceeds Investment Criteria (sector, geography, compliance with DFID’s ESG framework, maximum exposure per investment/borrower by Partner of INR____(to avoid concentration of investments by state, project or borrower), other criteria Deliverables/Results Governance Arrangements (Project Management Unit at the Partner, DFID’s role in investment decisions, Monitoring & Evaluation, Reporting Requirements (Operational, Financial, Progress related) etc.): Others (Performance Incentives, Affirmative Covenants, Site Visits, Project size reduction or Termination, Confidentiality etc.) 48 ANNEX 5: LOG-FRAME 49 REFERENCES i Social Appraisal: Benefits of women are mutli-fold: increased safety & security through better roads & street lighting and increases women’s mobility to access basic services; access to energy improves safety & security, education of children and opportunity for women to engage in productive work/home-based work; water collection although not targeted will reduce women’s time spent in water collection and improve overall health of the family; women and girls access to toilets has direct health benefits given cultural concerns in terms of privacy ii World Bank, (2010) ‘The World Bank Annual Report 2010 WEF Global Competitiveness Survey 2010-11 iv World Bank (2011) World Development Indicators v Source: pppinindiadatabase.com vi Census 2011 vii IFAD (2011) Non Farm Opportunities for Smallholder Agriculture, V.Mahajan & Gupta, R.K. viii ADB (2005) Assessing the Impact of Transport and Energy Infrastructure on Poverty Reduction ix “Agriculture Warehousing in India – Data, Statistics and Opportunities”, Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. July 2011 x What explains the gender disparities in economic participation in India? Ghani E., S.D. O’Connell and W. Kerr, August 2012. xi Social Appraisal: Benefits of women are mutli-fold: increased safety & security through better roads & street lighting and increases women’s mobility to access basic services; access to energy improves safety & security, education of children and opportunity for women to engage in productive work/home-based work; water collection although not targeted will reduce women’s time spent in water collection and improve overall health of the family; women and girls access to toilets has direct health benefits given cultural concerns in terms of privacy iii xii See DFID (2002) Making Connections: Infrastructure for Poverty Reduction See World Bank (2008) ‘Accelerating Growth and Development in the Lagging Regions of India’ and World Bank (2009) The Investment Climate in 16 Indian states xiv World Bank (2012) More and Better Jobs in South Asia xv Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash (2009): Infrastructure development and economic growth in India, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14:4, 351-365 xvi There is a long literature on the issue following on from Paul Samuelson’s seminal 1954 paper.Paul A. Samuelson (1954). "The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure". Review of Economics and Statistics (The MIT Press) 36 (4): 387–389 xvii World Bank (1994) World Development Report-Infrastructure for Development xiii xxi xxii Fan, S, P. Hazell, and S. Thorat (2000). Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India. Sonalde Desai (2011) Public Capital and Infrastructure: Reflections from the Indian Perspective. NCAER xxiv World Bank (2009) The Investment Climate in 16 Indian states xxvi IDS and Engineers Against Poverty, “Development Finance Institutions and Infrastructure: A Systematic Review of Evidence for Development Additionality” 2011 xxvii Institutional and Political Appraisal: Bankable infrastructure projects generally remain in short supply. This reflects low capacities, particularly in the central and state level PPP cells (more so in the poorest states), to design such projects. India has huge savings (35% of the GDP U$ 1.3 Trillion=US$ 450 Billion) and two-thirds of these are available with the commercial banks and insurance companies. But regulatory barriers restrict the flow of such funds to infrastructure sector. Available bank funding has much shorter tenors (10-15 years) than the actual need of the sector (2025 years). Bond market is shallow and underdeveloped. Supply of funds through the ECB (external commercial borrowings) route is also controlled (sector-wise) by RBI. Implementation challengesxxvii include: lack of co-ordination between centre and states; time consuming government clearances and land acquisition procedures; weak contract enforceability and disputes resolution; inadequate to ineffective regulation in some sectors; taxation and exit issues, particularly for foreign investors; and instances of lack of transparency in bidding process. Although government interest in infrastructure across the political spectrum has grown in recent decades, political will to charge appropriate user fees for mass consumption services like water and electricity remains weakxxvii. Although growing incomes in a rapidly growing economy are creating public attitude that supports payment of user charges, this 50 and the overall environment for financing of infrastructure projects may be affected by the current climate of global and national level economic slow-down. However, political pressures generated by the economic slow- down are forcing the government to seriously work on pending institutional reforms. GoI has recently announced some rule relaxations to encourage infrastructure financing. The planning commission is now monitoring progress on major infrastructure projects on a monthly basis. xxviii IFAD (2011) Non Farm Opportunities for Smallholder Agriculture, V.Mahajan & Gupta, R.K. ADB (2005) Assessing the Impact of Transport and Energy Infrastructure on Poverty Reduction xxx What explains the gender disparities in economic participation in India? Ghani E., S.D. O’Connell and W. Kerr, August 2012. xxxi Social Appraisal: Benefits of women are mutli-fold: increased safety & security through better roads & street lighting and increases women’s mobility to access basic services; access to energy improves safety & security, education of children and opportunity for women to engage in productive work/home-based work; water collection although not targeted will reduce women’s time spent in water collection and improve overall health of the family; women and girls access to toilets has direct health benefits given cultural concerns in terms of privacy xxix xxxii “Agriculture Warehousing in India – Data, Statistics and Opportunities”, Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. July 2011 World Bank (2006) Infrastructure at the crossroads: lessons from 20 years of World Bank experience xxxiv National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) Agricultural Engineering Model Bankable Projects.http://www.nabard.org/modelbankprojects/agriculturalengineering.asp xxxiii xxxv Government of India, Planning Commission (2003) Estimation Loss of Horticulture Produce due to Non-availability ofPost Harvest& Food Processing Facilities in Bihar & UP xxxvi National Horticultural Board (2011) Indian Horticultural Database xxxvii ADB (2005) Assessing the Impact of Transport and Energy Infrastructure on Poverty Reduction xxxviii World Bank (2009) Project Appraisal Document for proposed WB support to IIFCL xxxix Planning Commission (2010) Evaluation Study on Rural Roads Component of Bharat Nirman xl Kadiyali et al (2006) Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Rural Roads Incorporating Social Benefits. Working Paper No. 523. Indian Road Congress xli Government of India (2006) Working Group on Rural Roads in the 11th Five Year Plan.Final Report. Ministry of Rural Development xlii World Bank (2010) Project Appraisal Document for proposed WB support to PMGSY xliii WSP (2011) The Economic Impacts of Inadequate Sanitation in India xliv World Bank (2004) Project Appraisal Document for proposed WB support to Karnataka urban water sector improvement project xlv DFID (2012) PIDG Business Case. “PIDG facilities supported by DFID have catalysed $30 of private investment for each $1 of donor funding” 51