Appendix A1
The annual temporal variation of fire counts and burned area for a) lightning fires, and
b) human-caused fires from 1967 – 2009.
1
Appendix A2
Examinations of whether there is a significant difference between projected
“historical” (CGCM3-20C3M) and recorded climate from 1965-2000. The recorded
historical climate variables were derived from all 8 meteorological stations in the
vicinity of the research area from 1965-2000. The projected “historical” climate
variables were derived from the five points in the vicinity of the research area under
the CGCM3-20C3M scenario. Comparison was made between the mean value of
eight meteorological stations and five GCMs output cells for each year. P values were
based on the T test.
Annual precipitation (mm)
650
600
a)
p<0.001
550
500
450
400
350
300
Mean annual temperature (degree)
250
0
b)
p<0.001
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Recorded
CGCM3-20C3M
2
Appendix A3
Change in AICc (ΔAICc) resulting from removal of individual covariates from the full PPP model of human-caused and lightning fires (ΔAICc
in descending order). Refer to Table 1 for the abbreviation for variables.
Human-caused fires
Covariate
DisSet
DisRd FFMC Veg
RdDen
TPI
Prep Elev Slope
Asp
Temp
ΔAICc
44.42
6.32
5.2
3.59
2.69
1.99
1.32 1.29 0.49
0.09 0.06
Lightning fires
Covariate
DMC
Veg
Slope
Temp LightDen RdDen TPI
ΔAICc
3.67
2.48
1.71
1.34
1.01
0.97
Elev DisSet Asp
0.78 0.76 0.49
DisRd Prep
0.29 0.26
0.16
3
Appendix A4
Digital elevation model for the study area
4
Appendix A5
Spatial distribution of difference in annual temperature and precipitation between
projected “historical” (the 20C3M scenario from 1960 to 2000) and future (2081 2100) climate under alternative GCM scenarios of a,e) CGCM A2, b,f) HadCM A2,
c,g) CGCM B1, and d,h) HadCM B1. Note the scale change in symbology bar.
5
Appendix A6
Spatial distribution of predicted human-caused fire occurrence density under different
GCMs scenarios of a) CGCM A2, b) HadCM A2, c) CGCM B1, and d) HadCM B1.
Current major roadway coverage is overlaid. Fire occurrence density is defined as the
number of fire occurrences per 1000 km2 area per year. Spatial resolution is 1 km2.
6
Appendix A7
Spatial distribution of predicted lightning fire occurrence density under different
GCMs scenarios of a) CGCM A2, b) HadCM A2, c) CGCM B1, and d) HadCM B1.
Fire occurrence density is defined as the number of fire occurrences per 1000 km2 per
year. Spatial resolution is 1 km2.
7
Appendix A8
Map of relative change (percentage increase) in human-caused fire occurrence
between 2100 (2081 - 2100) under different GCM scenarios of a) CGCM A2, b)
HadCM A2, c) CGCM B1, and d) HadCM B1 and baseline (current fire occurrence
from 1965 - 2009). Relative change is given as the percentage increase in number of
fires per 1000 km2 per year. Relative change = (fire occurrence 2100 – fire occurrence
baseline)×100/
fire occurrence baseline. Note the scale change in symbology bar.
8
Appendix A9
Map of relative change (percentage increase) in lightning fire occurrence density
between 2100 (2081 - 2100) under different GCM scenarios of a) CGCM A2, b)
HadCM A2, c) CGCM B1, and d) HadCM B1 and baseline (current fire occurrence
from 1965 - 2009). Relative change is given as the percentage increase in number of
fires per 1000 km2 per year. Relative change = (fire occurrence 2100 – fire occurrence
baseline)×100/
fire occurrence baseline. Note the scale change in symbology bar.
9
Appendix A10
Table: Pearson's Chi-square test for whether human-caused fire occurrence density
varied significantly among different forest types before and after 1983.
Forest type
Fire occurred from
Fire occurred
1965 to 1982 (%)
after 1983 (%)
Coniferous
42.9
35.1
Mixed
2.3
3.3
Broadleaf
15.4
18.9
Meadow and other
39.4
42.7
**p<0.01
*** p<0.001
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