SPECIFIC SECTOR USER FEEDBACK REPORTS ON THE USE COF39 AND
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR USE OF COF 40 CLIMATE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS
AND SERVICES
1. Background
The objective of this exercise was to give chance to participants from various sectors to review
the GHACOF 39 outlook; how it was used in the different sectors and the performance of that
particular season at sector level. The sectors that were present during COF40 include:
Agriculture and Food Security, Livestock, Water and DRM. Below are sector-specific
deliberations presented during GHACOF40 that took place from 25-26 May 2015 in Djibouti,
The Republic of Djibouti.
2. Agriculture and Food Security Sector
In his presentation, the representative of the Agriculture sector noted that generally, there was
late onset of MAM rains by 2-3 dekads in most agricultural areas of the equatorial sector and
other areas of interest from the Northern Sector of the GHA region. This, he added,
subsequently led to late planting. He clarified that though rains started late during the last
dekad of March 2015, by end of April most areas of interest (Plate 2.1) had received at least
150mm of rainfall (Plate 2.2) and generally good performance was expected.
Analysis of Start of Season (SOS) Anomaly (Plate 2.3) indicated that late onset was mainly
observed in Western parts of the equatorial sector while early onset was experienced in some
parts of Southern Somalia, Southern parts of Sudan and Ethiopia. End of May and Extended
Crop phenology for 1st Dekad of June indicated that most of the maize crop was still in the
vegetative stage while crops in a few areas had gone into reproductive stage (Plates 2.4 and
2.5). Indeed, ground-truthing (Plate 2.6) indicated that maize in central Kenya was still in
vegetative stage just about to start flowering.
Plate 2.6: Maize crop in Central Kenya, Mid May 2015: Courtesy of KMD
A representative crop of maize/beans intercrop in
central Kenya; mid May 2015 showing Maize in
advanced vegetative stage just about to start
flowering.
Such crop would usually need additional 4 dekads of
enough moisture for successful crop yields. The ideal
situation, would require rains to continue into Dek 1
to 2 of June 2015.
In his summary, he reiterated that rains were enhanced in Dek 9 (3rd dekad of March 2015)
which enabled most of the planting to take place between Dek 9 – Dek 10. He indicated that
majority of crops would require at least 8-9 Dekads of rainfall for optimal performance.
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
1
Therefore, crops planted during March/April would need continuous moisture supply (rain) till
Dekad 1-2 June 2015 to achieve average (to maximum) performance.
With approximately 12,165,863 people in IPC 3&4 in IGAD as of May 2015 (according to
FSNWG), the representative said that the region is generally food secure BUT with pockets of
varying insecurity (Table 2.1). He clarified that conflict/insecurity and poor rainfall performance
were the major drivers of the current food insecurity.
Table 2.1: Food security situation and attribution (Source FSNWG May 2015)
Country
Burundi
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Kenya
Somalia
South Sudan
Uganda
Sudan
TOTAL
Est. Population in
IPC Phase 3 & 4
460,000
162,000
2,900,000
1,600 000
731,000
4,610,000
302,000
1,400,863
12,165,863
Attribution
Seasonal food insecurity; political conflict
Seasonal food insecurity
Limited food availability, high prices, flooding and displacement (600HH) in 2014
Poor SOND 2014, high prices, insecurity
Insecurity and conflict
Conflict and insecurity, market disruption
Poor SOND 2014 rains, limited food availability, high prices
Improved but pockets of conflict
The Agriculture sector team re-affirmed to the COF40 participants that MAM 2015 was most
likely going to perform well IF rains would continue into June. However, it is highly anticipated
that sustained conflict could disrupt agricultural activities in Burundi, South Sudan, Sudan,
Somalia and Kenya. He mentioned that localized variations in Food Insecurity situation could
arise at country level.
Plate 2.1: Suitability Analysis for Maize, MAM 2015
showing areas that were expected to receive at least
300mm (Light yellow to green regions) during the
Plate 2.2: Observed Rainfall by end of April, 2015, most areas of
interest had received above 150mm. In addition to the good
performance in April, observations for May indicate that the season
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
2
March-May Season, and therefore suitable for Maize
production.
was progressing well and was likely to receive above average rains.
Start of Season Anomaly was determined
using Geo Spatial Water requirement
Satisfaction Index (GeoWSRI) software
(Version 3.7).
It indicates that most of Uganda, Western
and Coastal Kenya, parts of South Sudan
and Ethiopia experienced late start of
season (SOS) by 2-4 dekads. However,
parts of southern Somalia, South Sudan
and Ethiopia experienced early onset by
1-2 dekads.
The observed late SOS may not be
detrimental since the season progressed
well immediately after onset.
Plate 2.3: MAM 2015 Start of Season Anomaly for the March-May (Long Rains) Season in GHA
Plate 2.4: Crop Phenology (Dek 2, May 2015)
Plate 2.5: Extended Phenology (Dek 3, May 2015)
3. Livestock Sector.
The presenter on behalf of the Livestock sector noted that there is good probability that the
areas within the green zones (Refer to GHACOF40 Outlook) will receive good rains and thus a
likelihood of good pastures. However, the yellow zone is of concern since these areas
consistently received normal to below normal rainfall during the SOND 2014 and even beyond.
The yellow corridor in the current forecast (GHACOF40) somewhat coincides with the ASAL
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
3
areas of the IGAD region. Most of these areas have been in the yellow (normal to below normal
for 4 seasons in a row) – see table 3.1. Below are some of the observed impacts of MAM 2015
rains in the various countries.
Kenya
NDMA is already reporting alarm and alert conditions in many counties (e.g. Wajir – Alarm,
West Pokot – Early Alert, and Samburu – Late Alert. See Table 3.1). If these areas receive below
normal rainfall during JJA 2015, then there is a high likelihood of drought conditions as well as a
conflict over rain-dependent resources.
Ethiopia
The country is in the dry season so no action; however, the GU in the Afar and Somali area is in
the rainy season thus based on the poor seasons special attention is required. At the moment,
there is a problem of pasture and water unavailability in some pastoral areas: Oromia, Amhara,
Afar, Tigray, SNNPR leading to poor livestock condition and low milk production. Income from
livestock sales and livestock products are low and unlikely to recover due to the expected
below-average rainfall through May. Staple food prices are seasonally high. Food insecurity is
likely to persist/deteriorate in pastoral areas if Belg/Diraac/Sugum/Gurains are insufficient to
regenerate rangeland and water resources.
Table 3.1: Status & Early Warning Phase & Trends for select Counties in Kenya
County
Wajir
Samburu
Marsabit
Turkana
Livelihood Zone
Agro-Pastoral
Pastoral – Cattle
Pastoral – All Species
Pastoral – Camel
Employment/Business
Country
Agro-Pastoral
Pastoral – North
Pastoral – East
County
Agro-Pastoral
Pastoral – All Species
Formal Employment/Casual labour
Pastoral – All Species
Agro-Pastoral
Fisheries
Formal Employment/Casual labour
County
Early Warning Phase
Alarm
Alert
Alert
Alert
Alert
Alert
Recovery
Recovery
Recovery
Recovery
Early Alert
Early Alert
Early Alert
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Trend
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Stable
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Improving
Djibouti
Djibouti needs attention especially in Obock where there was poor distribution of rainfall in the
previous season.
There is limited pasture regeneration and water availability, following an early cessation of the
below-average October-March 2014 Heys/Dadaa rains and a significantly delayed start to the
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
4
March-May 2015 Diraac/Soughoum/rains. The most affected areas are in the southeast
pastoral border zone and in rural Obock region. Stressed conditions may persist in the south,
Tadjourah, and Dikhil region due to poor performance of the Diraac/Soughoum rains.
4. Water Resources Sector
A poster presented by the water resources Sector indicated that the MAM 2015 prediction was
indeed ‘perfect’. It highlighted areas that had been predicted to receive normal to above
normal rainfall and indeed received heavy storms that caused flash floods, some of which,
unfortunately, resulted into destruction of property and loss of life.
The sector team cited examples of extreme rainfall events in Bujumbura (29th March 2015), Dar
el Salaam (March 2015), Kampala (April 2015), Narok (29th April 2015) and Nairobi (12th May
2015) which resulted to severe flooding as well as landslides. The downscaled hydrological
forecast for MAM 2015 based on GHACOF39 had indicated likelihood of enhanced rainfall in all
the above mentioned areas (Plate 4.1). In Bujumbura (Burundi), heavy rainfall resulted into
landslides while in the rest of the above mentioned cities/towns, flooding was prominent.
Plate 4.1: Hydrological Forecast and Impacts of MAM 2015 based on GHACOF39
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
5
5 Disaster Risk Management Sector.
The DRM presentation was dominated by the negative impacts of extreme precipitation that
resulted into severe flooding in many areas of GHA. Floods from heavy rains ravaged
infrastructure, crops, and led to loss of lives in some cases. The key areas that experienced
severe flooding include the following:
Kenya (Narok, Nairobi, Kisumu and Kajiado) between March and May 2015: the streets of
Narok town in Kenya were turned to rivers after a massive downpour on 28 April 2015. The
floods resulted into loss of lives, property and severe damage to roads and other infrastructure.
In Nairobi, flooding of the entire city left commuters at standstill with school children among
the most affected.
Also, residences within the city flood plains were severely affected with some people losing
their entire household property. Further flooding forced 300 families from their homes in
Kisumu and Homa Bay counties. The same flooding events resulting from overflow of more
than 3 rivers destroyed crops, livestock and other property.
Tanzania (Dar el Salaam): in March 2015; At least 7 people died and 5,000 were forced to
evacuate after floods raged Dar es Salaam in late March 2015. This was after a heavy downpour
that yielded 91 mm of rainfall in 24 hours, according to local media.
Somalia: starting from 15 Apr 2015, heavy downpour devastated many parts of the Juba and
Shabelle River basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands for more than a week.
Heavy flash floods were reported in some areas including Belet Weyne and Mogadishu.
South Sudan: a refugee camp called Nip Nip flooded and the UNHCR had to relocate about
2,200 refugees to a safer place in Gambella region in Ethiopia.
Burundi: Floods and Landslides - on 29 Mar 2015, heavy rains caused floods and landslides in
Muhuta, a commune of Bujumbura Rural Province in Western Burundi on the edge of Lake
Tanganyika, destroying 349 houses, a health centre and two schools. The displaced population
found refuge in the houses of their relatives and neighbours, which put the limited resources of
the hosting population under high pressure.
Rwanda Floods: On 3 April 2015, the Nyamasheke and Rubavu district located in the Western
Province of Rwanda experienced heavy rainfall, which resulted in flooding and landslides.
According to preliminary assessments by the Rwanda Red Cross Society, it is estimated that
3,425 people (685 households) had been affected.
On the other hand, Mr. Abdishakur also reported that the Turkana region in northern Kenya is
facing one of the worst droughts in living memory with more than 1M people in need of food
aid. This had also been reported in March 2015.
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
6
Local politicians are warning that the death toll will start rising unless urgent action is taken.
The drought comes despite the area sitting on a massive underground water reservoir that has
the potential to supply Kenya with water for the next 70 years according to BBC.
6. Discussions (Questions, Answers and General Comments)
On the Agriculture Presentation: an agriculture sector participant with agro-meteorology
background appreciated the good progress seen within the Agro-meteorology section at ICPAC. She
commended the use of NDVI and proposed inclusion of average (long term) conditions so as to
assess departures from mean and to compare how the crop performs in good or poor conditions
(enhanced and depressed rainfall seasons). She also commended the work of including phenological
status. Lastly she recommended the addition of suitability index in agro-meteorological analysis.
Another participant pointed out that the human conflict over pasture and water always worsen
whenever drought conditions arise and wished that such conflict-prone areas be mapped out. This
was agreed upon and the DRM team was tasked to look into it.
A participant from KMD thanked the DRM sector presenter for the valuable presentation on MAM
2015 seasonal impacts in DRM sector. He wanted to find out if those affected areas had been
warned over the impending floods. He recommended the downscaling of 5 to 10 days forecast and
issuance of warnings to those very affected or vulnerable areas across all countries in GHA.
He also posed a question to the Agriculture team: that the late start of MAM 2015 rains may not
translate to late retreat of the season; but if that was to happen, it could result into crop failure. So
he asked: if rains ceased at the usual time given that there was late onset in many areas, are we
likely to be heading into a famine disaster?
The Agriculture representative responded yes and no. Yes, if rains stopped by end of May when
most crops had just entered reproductive growth stage and if the temperatures remained high; we
would register severe crop losses due to intense moisture stress. And no, if rains continued into
second dekad of June 2015 and/or if the temperatures remained low like what is expected in and
around the central highlands of Kenya; then we would register optimum yields. He recommended
that we should prepare for either ways. More has to be done on national level to continuously
monitor seasonal progression and performance and issue timely advisories.
A participant from UNDP Uganda asked: How is the information on the food security disseminated
to Livestock sector and other end users? A representative of ICPAC answered that NMHSs should do
localized downscaling at national level and issue national advisories depending on the expected
local climatic conditions. Also, coordination of planned intervention by users of GHACOF forecast
products is being done under GFCS. GFCS is to provide global, regional and national platforms to
coordinate and monitor users’ intervention.
A participant from ICPALD also hinted that COF participants will relay the agreed-upon planned
interventions to their countries who meet every 2 months. Materials will also be put on the IDSR
website in order to disseminate the information to a wider range of users. She recommended that
the recommendations and contingency planning for ICPALD has to be augmented by ICPAC.
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
7
The DRM representative answered the question from KMD participant that KMD was ahead of
other Meteorological services in short term forecasting (i.e. 5 to 10days) and wondered whether
other NMHSs can be assisted to do likewise. He recommended that ICPAC should come up with one
harmonized method to help other NMHSs which have no capacity to use the global forecasting
models like COSMO.
A question from a participant on whether the region has got systematic/harmonized regional
downscaling methodologies for various sectors? If not, this should be done by ICPAC to ensure that
NMHSs are downscaling correctly. A representative of ICPAC noted that the current method used in
downscaling is based on analogue years because currently, there is no better method for predicting
onset and cessation dates. He said, therefore, analogues should be used until such a time when a
better method has been developed.
A participant from Ethiopia recommended that when we have a forecast, we should be able to
determine the likely period of onset delays so that agriculturalists plan well. The cause of the delay
in the MAM season or any subsequent season should be reflected in the GHACOF statements and
also inform communities when the rains are supposed to end. ICPAC should work more on research
about onsets, cessation, dry spells and wet spells so that they can be included in the seasonal
forecasts. In response, Prof. Ogallo said the Dry/Wet spells are still on research mode. There are
currently 3 PhD students doing research on onsets with the best institutions and once they are
through, the sky is the limit. For now, analogues provide the best information on Wet/Dry spells as
well as onsets.
One of the PRs asked: prior to MAM 2015 forecast, the ENSO (Pacific), Atlantic and Indian Dipole
SSTs were not active (in other words were at normal conditions) and yet we eventually received
enhanced rainfall as compared to what had been predicted and the analogue years provided for
GHACOF39; he wondered what exactly happened and what does it imply. He recommended that
such scenarios be considered in future forecasts. He also hinted that cyclones in Madagascar
affected the Northern Sector rainfall activity but enhanced Southern Parts of East and Southern
Africa and Central Parts of the Equatorial sector. He recommended that cyclone activity should be
closely monitored and if possible, forecasted.
Another participant requested to consider including the TCs (Tropical Cyclones) as one of the
drivers of weather and climate in the GHA region. Moreover, another participant wondered
whether these MAM rains of 2015 were the most severe to cause such havocs in many parts of the
region for which a participant from KMD responded that the MAM 2015 rains were not the most
severe but environment management issues and drainage infrastructures have been long ignored
and needed to be considered in order to combat flooding.
For further information, please contact, The Director, ICPAC
Produced by The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) P. O. Box 10304-00400, Nairobi Kenya;
Tel: +254 20 3514426; Email: director@icpac.net; Website: www.icpac.net.
8