Monitoring Forest Cover Transitions using Landsat and Forest Inventory Data Olivier R. van Lier1, Joan E. Luther2 and Donald G. Leckie3 1 Sir Wilfred Grenfell College, Memorial University, 20 University Drive, Corner Brook, NL, Canada, A2H 6P9; 709.637.4944; OvanLier@NRCan.gc.ca 2 Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 20 University Drive, Corner Brook, NL, Canada, A2H 6P9; 709.637.4971; JLuther@NRCan.gc.ca 3 Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8Z 1M5; 250.363.0624; DLeckie@NRCan.gc.ca 1.0 Introduction Forested landscapes are dynamic ecosystems which produce a variety of ecological, social and economic values. Up-to-date land cover (LC) information ensures a sound foundation for managing forested landscapes while past LC information provides historical trends and can thus assist in future management planning. Moreover, quantifying spatial forest change information is important for assessing impacts of human activities and environmental changes on ecosystem sustainability. In this paper, we present methods to monitor forest transitions using satellite imagery and forest inventory data. We demonstrate the applicability of the methods for the Humber River Basin (HRB), Newfoundland, a region where there are land and resource management issues centered on maintaining a sustainable timber supply, conserving wildlife habitat, preserving high profile viewscapes, and protecting water supply areas. First, we generate a time series of LC maps using a combination of Landsat MSS and Landsat TM data. We then quantify forest cover transitions over time and produce spatially explicit maps of change. Such information can provide decision-makers with an early warning system that can be further linked to human activities and environmental changes. 2.0 Materials and Methods 2.1 Study area and data preparation The Humber River Basin study area occupies 9 290 km2 in coastal Western Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada (Fig. 1). Contained within the Boreal Shield Ecozone, the HRB is largely dominated by balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and to a lesser extent, white birch (Betula papyrifera March.). Primarily disturbed by forest harvesting and insect damage, the HRB has also experienced a significant increase in socio-economic development over the last two decades. Although 85-90% of harvested areas regenerate naturally in this region, socio-economic developments result in permanent LC transitions. The study area was represented by three Landsat TM scenes (0426, 0525 and 0526) acquired for the years 1990, 2001 and 2007 (Fig. 1a) and a single Landsat MSS scene (0526) acquired for the year 1976. All Landsat scenes were resampled to a 25 m pixel size, manually registered, mosaicked and reprojected using manual ground control point collection with Geomatica OrthoEngine® software (©PCI Geomatics, Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada). Root mean square errors were maintained below 0.35 pixels to maintain sub-pixel precision for change detection. Prior to mosaicking, the 2001 Landsat images; hereafter referred to as baseline, were radiometrically normalized to a 2001 MODIS 32-day composite image using Theil-Sen robust regression (Olthof et al. 2005). Similarly, the non-baseline 2007 images were normalized to a 2005 MODIS 32-day composite image. Non-baseline mosaics were then normalized to the baseline mosaic using the band statistical comparison technique (Joyce and Olsson, 1999). Processing and analysis was performed on all pairs of baseline and non-baseline mosaics. Three disturbance maps were generated from the provincial forest inventory database to reflect disturbances occurring for each temporal transition period (i.e. 1976-1990, 1990-2001, 2001-2007). Disturbance maps were independently updated by Newfoundland and Labrador’s Department of Natural Resources, Forestry Services Branch, within forest management district offices. The HRB is intersected by provincial management districts 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, and Gros Morne National Park (Fig. 1b) and the inventoried year varied though 1977 to 2003 from one district to another. The inventories are updated on average every 13 years by interpreting 1:12,500 scale aerial photographs. Disturbance polygons from the updated inventories (i.e. harvest, windthrow, fire or insect) were selected and stratified by year of occurrence to match the analysed transition periods. a) b) Fig. 1. Location of the Humber River Basin overlaid with a) Landsat TM scene extents and b) forest management districts. 2.2 Mapping land cover Through a joint collaboration of Natural Resources Canada and the Canadian Space Agency, the Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of Forests (EOSD) project produced a national LC map of the forested areas of Canada (Wulder et al. 2003; 2008a) which provided baseline coverage of the HRB. Through the EOSD project, the baseline imagery was classified using unsupervised K-means clustering applied to individual NDVI strata masks (water, non-vegetated, low reflectance vegetation, high-reflectance vegetation) which were created during image pre-processing. Clusters were labelled as one of 23 land cover classes through visual interpretation of multiple false color composite image enhancements in combination with forest stand maps, ancillary data, and local knowledge. Updating LC for the non-baseline imagery was accomplished by first applying an unsupervised k-means clustering algorithm to each pair of baseline and non-baseline imagery on bands 1 through 5, and 7 (Leckie et al. 2008). To mask change, clusters were labelled as either change or no change. Unsupervised K-means clustering was then applied solely to the non-baseline image bands and the resulting clusters were merged and labelled as per the labelling process of the baseline. The mapping and updating procedures were validated by comparing 294 ground survey plots sampled in 2008 with the 2007 LC product. Finally, for each LC map, the estimated areal distribution of a) non-vegetated classes, b) vegetated non-treed classes, and c) vegetated treed classes were quantified. 2.3 Forest cover transitions Forest transitions were quantified from LC transition matrices generated by crosstabulating the LC maps for the three transition periods. As suggested by Puyravaud (2003), annual rates of change were calculated for LC types using the following compound-interest-rate formula: A 1 Px ln x 2 t 2 t1 Ax1 (1) where Px is the percent rate of change for a given LC type x, and Ax1 and Ax2 are x’s areal estimate at time t1 and t2, respectively. The transition classes were validated by comparing the transition of the 2001 LC map label to the 2008 ground survey plot label with the 2001 to 2007 LC transition. Net forest cover depletion and regeneration maps were then produced by mapping the transition of a treed cell to a non-treed cell, and a non-treed cell to a treed cell, respectively. Percent cover of forest depletion and regeneration were mapped for 10 ha grid cells. 3.0 Results The overall classification accuracy of the 2007 LC map at the vegetation type level was 74.15% with a Kappa Index of Agreement (KIA) of 0.68. The vegetated treed surface area comprised 70.6% of the total HRB area in 1976; 70.3% in 1990, 67.1% in 2001 and 67.7% in 2007. The annual rates of change varied within transition periods. The forest cover (i.e. aggregation of all treed LC types) changed at a rate of -0.03%/yr for the 1976 to 1990 transition period, -0.42%/yr for the following transition period (i.e. 1990 to 2001) and increased at a rate of 0.16%/yr for the final transition period (i.e. 2001 to2007). The coniferous LC type decreased at a rate of 0.21%/yr and was accompanied by increasing change rates for the vegetated non-treed (0.65%/yr), broadleaf (1.45%/yr), mixed wood (0.61%/yr) and wetland treed (0.09%/yr) LC types. The overall accuracy of the 2001-2007 transition classes (depletion, regeneration, treed no change and non-treed no change) was 87.8% with a KIA of 0.83. We obtained user accuracies of 91.7% for depletion, 89.7% for regeneration, 92.0% for treed no change and 82.4% for non-treed no change. Disturbances mapped in the forest inventory corresponded well with the treed LC to non-treed LC transition (Fig. 2). a) b) Fig. 2. Forest depletion mapped from a) forest inventory disturbance data and b) LC transition analysis, for the 2001-2007 time period. Discussion The implementation of land cover update methods and resulting generation of multitemporal LC maps enabled post-classification analysis of areas of LC conversion (i.e. change of LC type) or modification (i.e. change within a LC type) for a largely forested region of western Newfoundland, Canada. These LC changes formed the basis of further assessment of forest cover transitions and annual rates of change while the sequence of generated LC maps portrayed the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. The use of forest inventory data was an obvious source of information to validate our LC and forest transitions. However, many issues exist when comparing pixel-based LC maps with vector-based polygon interpretations of forest inventory (Wulder et al. 2006). Moreover, since the HRB covers several forest districts, it was impossible to represent the entire basin with a single time stamp of LC derived from forest inventory since the forest inventory data interpretation years varied by management district. Therefore, the forest inventory was not well suited for long-term monitoring and reporting of change for the HRB. On-the-other hand, the analysis of satellite remote sensing data, made it possible to extract trend information that was otherwise difficult to generate from the available forest inventory. Conclusions This study analysed forest cover transitions within the Humber River Basin from 1976 to 2007, using Landsat and forest inventory data. 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