WILL THE 2012 LONDON OLYMPICS AND PARALYMPICS HAVE AN EFFECT ON DECREASING
OBESITY, AND WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR THE UK ECONOMY?
Lars Nesheim tutees, University College London
THE U.K.’S PROBLEM
WITH OBESITY
Inspired by the British Medical Association headquarters
THE OLYMPIC GAMES AND ITS
RELATIONSHIP TO SPORT
PARTICIPATION
Figure 1
Obesity is a major epidemic in the UK today. According to the
above graph (figure 1) in 2009, almost a quarter of adults (22 per
cent of men and 24 per cent of women) in England were classified
as obese. Being significantly overweight is linked to a wide range
of health problems such as diabetes, heart disease and even some
cancers. As many as 30,000 people die every year as a result of
obesity related conditions and the National Audit Office estimates
that obesity costs the NHS at least £500 million a year – and the
wider economy more than £2 billion a year in lost productivity.
Obesity is set to rise too, with some experts predicting that threequarters of the population could suffer from weight related illness
in the next 10 to 15 years.
One of the grass
roots projects that
has had its funding
reduced amidst the
recession.
If there were to be a long term increase in participation as a result
of London 2012, it would certainly seem likely that levels of
obesity and the costs associated with the condition would fall.
However, it may be the case that the money invested in the
Olympics may have had a greater effect if spent elsewhere. For
example cuts to sporting bodies Sport England and UK sport,
which saw their budgets slashed by 33% and 28% respectively
could undermine any “Olympic legacy”. As well as this, cuts in the
provision of sport in schools, with £162 million being redirected
from sports to general school funding and a new generation of
school sport facilities, that would have been provided at a
£6.05billion by the Building Schools for the Future programme, are
likely to reduce the number of hours children spend doing sport
every week, This will not only further impact on the aggregate
economic effects of the Olympics, but also the future economic
benefits.
The debate as to whether an Olympics actually does increase participation in sport
is contentious, mainly due to the lack of palpable evidence to display a proof or
disproof of this fact. As a poster child for so many sporting activities, a month long
global advert for sports might be assumed to almost automatically increase sports
participation. There is some previous evidence that does support this fact. Notably
in the build-up to 2004 Athens games, participation in sport was found to rise by
6%, although after the games had finished, the amount of people partaking in
sport diminished rapidly below previously seen levels, ultimately reducing by 13%
by 2009.
Victoria Pendleton
standing with one of
the new bikes in her
range.
THE EFFECT OF INCREASED
SPORTS PARTICIPATION ON
AREAS OF THE ECONOMY
Healthcare burden & productivity
While it may be true that £5 spent on a swimming pool is £5 less spent on an
impoverished British public health service. Olympic leaders continue to reiterate
that these two are linked — if London 2012 inspired British adults to become
10% more active, that same health service is saved £800m per annum through
lower illness levels and therefore less strain on the healthcare system By
achieving a 10% increase in adult activity we could save about 6000 lives and
at least £500m a year. The net result of these health issues for London is that
the average annual cost of physical inactivity to the NHS in London is £105
million. There is also scope therefore for the government to utilise the extra
funds available in other areas of government spending, for example in
infrastructure. Lower illness levels will also mean that less days off are taken
throughout the year on average, thus meaning that on average the economy
will be more productive. In graphical terms an outward shift in LRAS (LRAS 1 to
LRAS 2) may therefore occur, thus causing the output of the economy to rise
(Y1 to Y2) while reducing price levels (P1 to P2).
LRAS 1
Price
levels
Astonishingly from 1989 to 1995 (during the Barcelona games), the proportion of
the population that spent time at least once a week on sporting activity rose from
47%-51%. This tells us one at least one fact therefore; the increased participation
in sports from Olympics varies highly, and the London games may have its own
imprint to make on this debate. Evidence has already shown that bike sales in the
UK have increased rapidly since the games, possibly due to Team GB’s successes
in this field, with sales of Victoria Pendleton’s range of bikes increasing by over
70%.
Figure 2
In addition to this, sports participation is shown by figure 2 to be increasing in the
first two quarters of 2012 by 2%. Although interestingly this is no greater increase
than the trend rate and it remains to be seen what affect the London games will
have on sports participation. In the end it may have much more to do with other
factors such as government expenditure in sports than the Olympics themselves.
LRAS 2
A simple graphical
representation of an
increase in long run
aggregate supply.
P1
P2
Behaviourally
AD 1
Y1
Y2
Real output
From a behavioural change perspective it is fascinating to see how the
Olympics Games raise spectators’ motivation levels, and when motivation is
high, behavioural change can seem easier to achieve. Because of this, we
believe that the inspiration of Olympics Games and Paralytic Olympics Games
will have a positive effect on obesity no matter on disabled or non-disabled.
At times like this, we become more open to change. This applies to getting
involved in sports or adopting a healthier lifestyle, hence reducing the chance
of being obese. However, we must remember that our motivation levels will not
stay high forever. A study conducted by Phillippa Lally and colleagues at the
Health Behaviour Research Centre at University College London in 2009 found
that creating and fixing a new habit took anywhere between 18 and 254 days,
while the average was 70 days. On the other hand, we suggest there might be
a long lasting aspiration from the glory of Olympics Games to athletes. It
inspires people to compete for the medals thereby doing exercise regularly and
having a healthy eating habit, therefore avoiding obesity. It might only affect a
small group of people , but it does give a longer period of emotional state
which is much longer than 70 days from the study conducted by Phillippa Lally.