Climate Modeling – You be the climate scientist!
What about the future? What will happen if we keep emitting CO2?
Goals:
Students will be able to explain why models used for climate predictions are reliable.
Students will use the very simple climate model to compare future climate temperature based on
different CO2 emissions scenarios.
Hook:
Minilesson
Refer to the graphs countering skeptics’ statements and ask: How do scientists predict the
future?
Ask students to make a prediction about future temperature in Colorado.
What is a model? Show example equation from Dennis Sheah and from very simple climate
model. Explain that models are built on existing knowledge of physics and chemistry and
other science and predict what will happen. Scientists must put information into the
model.
Show graph of temp and CO2 – what relationship do you see?
Show visual of sinks and output of CO2. Could also show the bathtub model (see link
below)
How do we know these models are any good?
Explain calibration
Explain cross reference to other models
Show how model is calibrated to fit observed data records (calibration on very simple
climate model).
Practice
Students calibrate with teacher direction on the projector (whole class) or teacher
demonstrates calibration
Explain simple carbon model and how it relates to atmospheric fraction
Explain climate sensitivity – how responsive temperature is to changes
Debrief/
next mini
lesson
Are you convinced the models are reliable? Skeptic statement: Models are unreliable.
Show a few graphs with data from many models on one graph with confidence levels
What would you tell a climate skeptic about the accuracy of models for future climate
predictions? (students write a short response in their journals)
Hook:
Part 2
Mini
lesson
You be the climate scientist. What do you predict about the future? Are you optimistic?
What changes need to happen?
Brainstorm in a small group, share out as a class – what factors will affect CO2 emissions?
Explain different scenarios.
Use bathtub interactive for lower level students
Students try a scenario where emissions increase until 2050 and then decrease
Students test their own scenario.
Practice
Students use very simple climate model to look at different scenarios (high, medium, low)
Students record what happened to CO2 and temp over time
Which scenario had the least warming? Which had the most?
Very general overview of IPCC scenarios
Provide some meaning to the different numbers, future co2 emissions vs current, levels in
atmosphere and meaning of a 2˚ C temp. increase
Debrief:
What do you predict for the future climate? (which scenario)
How do you feel about climate change?
Next day - What is predicted for the future of Colorado?
Resources
Need computer lab
http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/ temperature data, shows how several models show the same
trends
http://www.climateinteractive.org/simulations/bathtub/the-climate-bathtub-animation (bathtub
simulation for co2 emissions and levels for video, could show first 2-3 min to explain model at beginning
and show 6:45 – 7:30 at end before very simple climate model, could use this later to show what needs
to change
example of code
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/~shea/zm_conv.F90
Additional overview of IPCC scenarios
Type of energy use – all fossil fuel or all alternative
Amount of energy use – high and low
Population – high and low
Global connection - more equity across the globe versus regionally
isolated strategies
Students relate temp increase to co2 levels
Students compare/contrast all fossil fuel vs all non fossil fuel
Students compare/contrast high energy use vs low energy use
Students compare/contrast high vs low population (what does this mean for co2 emissions
Advanced level = which factor do you think plays a greater role, pop or energy use
Teacher Reference
The Main Characteristics of the Four SRES Storylines and Scenario Families
By 2100 the world will have changed in ways that are hard to imagine - as hard as it would have
been at the end of the 19th century to imagine the changes of the 100 years since. Each storyline
assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments, such that the four storylines
differ in increasingly irreversible ways. Together they describe divergent futures that encompass
a significant portion of the underlying uncertainties in the main driving forces. They cover a
wide range of key "future" characteristics such as population growth, economic development,
and technological change. For this reason, their plausibility or feasibility should not be
considered solely on the basis of an extrapolation of current economic, technological, and social
trends.




The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth,
low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased
cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita
income. The A1 scenario family develops into four groups that describe alternative directions of
technological change in the energy system. Two of the fossil-intensive groups were merged in
the SPM.
The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying
theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions
converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is
primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are
more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same low population
growth as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service
and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean
and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and
environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate
initiatives.
The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local
solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with moderate
population growth, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more
diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also
oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional
levels.
After determining the basic features and driving forces for each of the four storylines, the team
began modeling and quantifying the storylines. This resulted in 40 scenarios, each of which
constitutes an alternative interpretation and quantification of a storyline. All the interpretations
and quantifications associated with a single storyline are called a scenario family (see Chapter 1
for terminology and Chapter 4 for further details).
Name:
Date:
A Very Very Simple Climate Model
http://eo.ucar.edu/staff/rrussell/climate/modeling/co2_climate_model.html
Brainstorm Factors that Affect CO2 emissions
Test the scenarios on the back and record results
1. Switch the temperature to Fahrenheit in the drop down menu underneath the graph.
2. Choose a value for carbon dioxide emissions and click play.
Discussion Questions
1. Which scenario had the most warming? How hot was the average global temperature?
2. Which scenario had the least warming? How hot was the average global temperature?
3. Is some global warming inevitable?
Scenarios to test with the Model
Scenario
CO2
Emissions
(Gt/year)
What this means
Current
9
Same fossil fuel usage
High
18
High economic growth,
increased fossil fuel
usage
Medium
11
Steady economic growth,
slightly increased fossil
fuel usage
Low
4
Decreased fossil fuel
usage
Current
until 2050,
then
decrease
8, then 4
Your choice
How does
atmospheric CO2
change?
How does temperature change?