Appendix A
The Gap Analysis: Explanation of Method
In the Commission’s work, supply was represented by the number of baccalaureate degrees awarded by Florida schools as reported to the National Center for Educational
Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Educational Data System (IPEDS). All educational institutions receiving Title IV Financial Aid (approximately 400 in Florida) are required to report this data to IPEDS, assigning a Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) code to each educational program.
Demand was estimated using the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity’s Longterm Employment Projections, the same ones that inform the state’s official Workforce
Estimating Conference. Each occupation was given a Standard Occupational
Classification (SOC) code. However, the Commission decided to classify those occupations educationally using the “middle of the road” U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) taxonomy rather than the American Community
Survey 1 (ACS) methodology or the Florida Department of Education (FLDOE) codes, believing that the ACS methodology overestimates the demand for baccalaureate degrees while the FLDOE coding scheme underestimates it. The Commission chose to use the BLS method to determine the gap between supply and demand for workers at the bachelor’s degree level in Florida because it provides the most accurate depiction of the actual educational level that workers should complete in order to meet job requirements.
When classifying an occupation by education level, the ACS methodology considers the educational attainment of employees actually working in the occupation. This can lead to distortions due to phenomena such as “up-skilling” and “down-skilling” (e.g., waiters with baccalaureate degrees). The self-reported nature of the ACS also adds to this effect. In contrast, the BLS taxonomy classifies occupations by the typical level of skills needed to enter an occupation while the FLDOE codes consider the minimum level of skills needed to enter an occupation. The FLDOE codes are actually a modification of the BLS taxonomy. Created 15 years ago, the FLDOE codes, however, don’t necessarily reflect changes in job requirements that have occurred over time and, as a result of their being used to direct state Workforce Investment Act funding to less-thana-baccalaureate-level training programs, have an inherent bias toward classifying occupations at less-than-a-baccalaureate-degree level. Further, this modification ma kes comparisons of Florida’s labor market projections with those of other states and of the nation as a whole very difficult, if not impossible.
1 NOTE: The American Community Survey is administered by the United States Bureau of the Census: “ The American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing statistical survey that samples a small percentage of the population every year -- giving communities the in formation they need to plan investments and services.” Retrieved
September 19, 2013 from http://www.census.gov/acs/www/#

For the Commission’s gap analysis presented in this report, a national CIP-SOC crosswalk was used as a basis for linking occupations in demand (the SOC code) with their correlated educational programs (the CIP code). Unfortunately, there is often not a one-to-one correspondence between CIP and SOC codes since a given educational program can often lead to multiple occupations and a given occupation can often be supplied by many different educational programs. Thus, certain technical adjustments were made to account for this effect.
Managerial occupations were excluded from the analysis because they require certain levels of experience beyond a degree. The 100-opening threshold was employed as an analytical safety net to account for the uncertainty surrounding various components of the analysis, such as the selection of a particular educational coding methodology and the lack of one-to-one CIP-SOC correlations.
The need for additional graduates in these occupations was further confirmed by examining certain “contextual metrics,” including annual projected demand growth rates, short-term demand as indicated by Help Wanted Online data, the existence of a waiting labor force “warehoused” by the recession, and average entry wage rates.
In addition, it is important to note that certain occupations fell outside the scope of the analysis because they are educationally coded either above the baccalaureate level
(e.g., physicians) or below the baccalaureate level (e.g., nurses).
Chart 1 on the following page shows how different methods provide different percentages of college graduates employed by level of education. The dark blue bars in
Chart 1 report the percentage of occupations based on the educational level typically needed for entry into the profession using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics taxonomy for classifying occupations by education. The green bars represent the data that the
Florida DEO produces and includes as part of its Workforce Estimating Conference materials.
When comparing Florida to the national average, as shown by comparing the light and dark blue bars in the chart above, Florida’s economic demand for a workforce with bachelor’s and graduate degrees is on par with the national average and almost on par at the a ssociate’s degree level.

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
37%
43%
37%
26%
3% 4% 5%
10%
16% 16%
14%
4%
6%
Graduate
Degrees
Bachelor's
Degrees
Associate's
Degrees
20%
5%
19% 19%
Postsecondary
Vocational
High School
Diploma
17%
Less than
High School
An explanation of the methodology for the gap analysis is also available at the Florida
Board of Governors web site.
2
2 For a detailed explanation of the methodology undergirding the gap analysis, please consult the September 26, 2012 meeting materials for the Access and Educational
Attainment Commission, “Preliminary Discussion of Potential Occupational Analysis
Methodologies,” available at http://www.flbog.edu/about/commission/_doc/commissionmaterials/Preliminary-Discussion-of-Potential-Occupational-Analysis-Methodologies-
%20092512.pdf