Intervention Summary Title: Reducing Disaster Risks by providing catastrophe insurance for Fonkoze’s Micro credit clients in Haiti What support will the UK provide? The UK will provide a contribution of £955,000 in 2011/2012 to introduce affordable catastrophe insurance to protect micro credit borrowers in Haiti against natural disasters. DFID will provide a one-off payment of £955,000 to a multi donor trust fund managed by the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB). The trust fund will form the capital base for a new microinsurance institution (MiCRO) that will start operations in Haiti but expand to other countries and sectors in the Caribbean. This funding comes from the £2 million allocated to Disaster Risk Reduction after the Haiti 2010 earthquake as part of the UK's commitment to allocate 10% of post disaster humanitarian funding towards reducing future risks. The UK’s bilateral humanitarian contribution to the Haiti earthquake response was £20m. Why is UK support required? This pilot initiative will introduce a catastrophe insurance mechanism to protect micro finance institutions (MFIs) and the livelihoods of micro credit borrowers from natural disasters. Without such protection, the benefits of micro credit will continue to be undermined when disaster strikes. The Haiti earthquake of 12 January killed more than 250,000 and injured over 300,000. About 1.3 million people were forced to live in temporary shelters in Port au Prince and over 500,000 people left to find shelter in the rest of the country.1 The earthquake had a devastating affect on micro-entrepreneurs who lost assets, merchandise and markets. The micro-finance sector, which provides micro-loans to sustain and stimulate many of these businesses, suffered extensive losses. Almost one year after the earthquake, USAID estimated that of the $38m outstanding microcredit loans across Haiti, a quarter could end up in default2. Fonkoze is Haiti’s largest micro finance institution (MFI) with 45,000 mainly female clients. Many of its members were killed, injured or struggled to repay loans because of their losses. Fonkoze, in common with other MFIs across Haiti, suffered significant losses of capital and many loans had to be written off. This is not unusual for MFIs after sudden onset natural disasters elsewhere in the world: “When natural disasters strike, clients lose family members, health, homes, business assets, inventories, livestock, and crops—exactly those things in 1 2 Executive summary, Haiti Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), March 2010 New York Times, Can Micro Credit Save Haiti? November 13, 2010 which they had invested loan capital.”3 Still indebted to the microfinance institution (MFI), micro borrowers are then forced to sell assets to repay their debts, exactly when they need those funds and assets to try to cope with and recover from the disaster. The poorest clients with the smallest liquid assets or the greatest loss of income often go deeper into dept, having to sell off remaining assets, take children out of school and seek other coping strategies, such as migrating in search of work. Microfinance is increasingly recognised as an effective way of fighting poverty.4 Through MFIs like Fonkoze, poor people can obtain access to small loans, credit and other financial services that allow them to make their own enterprise decisions that contribute to raising per capita income as well as household net worth. But recurrent disasters in Haiti highlight how natural disasters negate these gains and further exacerbate poverty. To meet clients’ emergency and recovery needs, MFIs have to reschedule loans, or issue new loans to clients. To survive, MFIs have to search out new loans from commercial sources or benefit from grants. Both may not be forthcoming, or take time to materialise. Fonkoze’s repeated disaster experiences in Haiti led them to pursue more sustainable financing options and protection for their members. After the 2008 storms in Haiti (793 dead, 876,000 requiring humanitarian assistance) Fonkoze, with funding from DFID and USAID, supported the recovery of 18,000 members, mostly women, (90,000 families) by cancelling outstanding debts and providing new loans to restart businesses, earn income, and re-enter the credit programme. DFID CHASE concluded that Fonkoze provided “essential support” for the recovery of some of the most vulnerable women in Haiti. Fonkoze built on this success, deeming it essential to build resilience against future disasters. After 2008, they introduced disaster risk reduction training for all clients and started to investigate financial protection options. Fonkoze has led the way on developing a catastrophe5 insurance scheme for natural hazards events (rain, earthquake, wind) to protect its microfinance clients in Haiti. It will be the first MFI in Haiti to offer this insurance and will be a founding member of MiCRO, the co-operative institution that will manage the insurance mechanism and expand it to other hazard risks, countries and sectors (e.g. small scale farmers). MiCRO will use a parametric hazard “index” to trigger insurance payments. Fonkoze will receive a payout from MiCRO according to the intensity of a hurricane, earthquake or rainfall event that affects a given area. These payments will in turn be paid to Fonkoze’s loan holders. Fonkoze uses a four step “staircase” process to reach out to help the poor pull themselves out of poverty and into a financially secure future for themselves and their families. Different support and loan options are available at each step. For example, “TI Kredi” (Little Credit) offers a small initial loan of just 1000 Gourdes (£16.00). The next step “Solidarity Group” is Fonkoze’s core programme. The current average loan size of the “Solidarity Group” is 10,000 Gourdes (£156.00) repayable over six months. If triggered by a disaster event, the insurance would: 3 Micro enterprise best practice, rapid onset natural disaster brief, http://www.gdrc.org/icm/disasters/rapid_onset_brief_7.pdf 4 Micro finance gateway for comprehensive information; http://www.microfinancegateway.org/p/site/m/ 5 Catastrophe refers to events that are of a size and spread that will overwhelm normal or anticipated coping capacities and that will require extraordinary means of support. Clear the balance of the existing loan to Fonkoze members Provide loan holders with a 5,000 gourdes cash grant to cover any immedediate family needs Allow loan holders apply for a new loan Fonkoze’s will make insurance mandatory for all new borrowers. More detail on Fonkoze is available at www. Fonkoze.org Significant benefits of a parametric approach include: i) the ease of administration – payments are made according to measurable hazard thresholds (e.g. wind speed, rainfall) rather than actual losses on the ground thereby eliminating the timely and expensive process of loss adjustument; ii) the avoidance of moral hazard (where the security provided by insurance stops policy holders undertaking risk prevention) and; iii) adverse selection (where the riskiest are the first to take out insurance). Most importantly, because parametric insurance is predictable, with pre-determined pay-outs to pre-determined hazard levels, re-insurance is cheaper than traditional, indemnity insurance schemes. In Haiti re-insurance for hazard losses is not available for indemnity insurance because of the uncertainty of measuring and verifying losses. No loss adjustment is needed so payments can be made very quickly, within two weeks. MiCRO will be set up in partnership with Fonkoze, CaribRM, Swiss Re, Guy Carpenter Micro Solutions, Mercy Corps, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), InterAmerican Development Bank (IADB) and Swiss Agency for Development and Co-operation. Fonkoze’s contribution is funded by USAID. DFID’s contribution will mobilise others to support this innovative initiative. DFID has been at the forefront of developing and gaining support for the MiCRO initiative; assisting Fonkoze to develop an insurance product by commissioning a feasibility study in 2009. This initiative builds on DFID’s involvement in launching and monitoring the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) – the first region-wide parametric insurance scheme for Governments launched in 2007. Expanding access to micro insurance for low income groups and farmers outside of Haiti is a core component of DFID C’s 2011-2015 operational plan, and was assessed as innovative by the Bilateral Aid Review (BAR) panel. DFID support will highlight the need to maximise DRR components of recovery strategies. Within the international community DFID takes a lead pushing for post disaster assistance which better incorporate DRR – reducing the risks and building resilience to lessen future disaster losses. What are the expected results? Insurance will protect the livelihoods and assets of micro credit borrowers, speed their recovery and reduce the need for post disaster assistance that is expensive, often slow to arrive or absent. This will be achieved by setting up the first micro hazard insurance mechanism (MiCRO) for earthquakes, floods and hurricanes in Haiti and the region. Fonkoze members will be the first clients of MiCRO. The project will achieve the following results: At least 50,000 people in Haiti will have their micro credit loans protected in the first year of the project - 18,000 persons attributable to DFID. The establishment of a parametric micro insurance scheme that will be expanded to incorporate other countries and clients within one year. The project will: Provide micro insurance clients with funds when they most need them to pay for emergency needs and to re-establish their businesses and incomes. Allow local economies and trading systems to re-establish themselves more quickly after disasters. Reduce the need for low income groups to adopt coping strategies, such as using up their savings or selling their assets thereby making them more vulnerable to future shocks). By offering protection against disaster events, financial decision-making by micro entrepreneurs (e.g. whether to take out a loan, whether to purchase assets) will be more predictable, sustainable and productive. Result in more predictable, timely assistance than post disaster humanitarian assistance. Demonstrate the effectiveness of incorporating DRR into recovery strategies. Strategic Case A. Context and need for DFID intervention Rationale Threatened by earthquakes, landslides, floods and hurricanes, Haiti is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Even before the 2010 earthquake that killed over 250,000, Haiti ranked fifth in a list of countries at relatively (based on population) high risk of mortality from multiple hazards.6 Haiti cannot afford the increasing cost of disasters. During the 20th century, Haiti experienced 56 internationally recognized storm or flood related disasters, with 44% of these occurring in the 1990s. In 2004, tropical storm Jeanne cost the country 7% of its GDP. The damage and 6 World Bank, Natural Disaster Hotspots, A Global Risk Analysis (Washington, DC: Disaster Risk Management Series, 2005), table 1.2. losses of four storms in 2008 was 15%. The total value of the damage and losses caused by the January 12 2010 earthquake is estimated at US$ 7.804 billion, more than 120% of the country’s 2009 GDP7. 77% of Haitians live on less than US$2 a day. 52% on less than US$1 a day. Disasters not only make poor people poorer, they also increase future vulnerability. As coping mechanisms are eroded, there is more pressure on the environment (e.g. through increased deforestation) and further urbanisation (as people migrate to cities to seek jobs). The impact of disasters in Haiti is expected to intensify as vulnerability is increased by climate change. According to the Climate Investment Fund, Haiti is one of the ten global climate change hotspots. Disasters pose a similar threat to the economic and development progress to the Caribbean as a whole. Although most countries have attained middle income status and are meeting most MDGs, there is danger of slipping backwards. Disasters threaten already precarious economies across the region, especially those already struggling with high levels of debt and fiscal deficit. The Caribbean is disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and volcanoes. Between 1991 and 2005, seven of the top 20 greatest losses of GDP to natural disasters worldwide were in the Caribbean – e.g. Grenada’s: Hurricane Ivan in 2004 - 253% GDP loss, Guyana’s floods in 2005 – 58% of GDP lost. Six of the 20 countries with the highest mortality risk from multiple hazards are in the Caribbean.8 Haiti and the Caribbean highlight the importance of incorporating disaster risk reduction into all aspects of development strategies in hazard prone countries. In 2005, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN) launched the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) as the primary multilateral global commitment for DRR, calling for national governments, international organisations, civil society groups to incorporate risk reduction into development policies and planning. In 2006, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), a partnership of 36 countries (including UK) committed to helping developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. DFID has long promoted DRR. Both the 1997 and 2006 White Papers stated DRR would be an integral part of DFID development co-operation. In 2006, DFID launched a formal policy paper “Reducing the Risk of Disasters – Helping to Achieve Sustainable Poverty Reduction in a Vulnerable World “articulating the goal of “contributing to sustainable development through vulnerability reduction of the poorest.” The 2006 DFID policy included an innovative commitment to allocate 10% of humanitarian assistance to recovery and DRR to “build back better” to avoid future losses. Two weeks after the Haiti earthquake, the then Secretary of State approved £2m for DRR to supplement the £20m of UK bilateral humanitarian response. This programme is part of that allocation and follows extensive discussions with partners operating in Haiti and a DFID field mission to investigate DRR options in June 2010. Since 2008, DFID Caribbean has recognised the risks posed to regional development strategies by (recurrent) disasters and climate change. Building community resilience to 7 PDNA; Assessment of damage, losses, general and sectoral needs. Government of the Republic of Haiti, with the technical support of the UN, the IDB, the ECLAC, the World Bank and the European Commission (March 2010). 8 Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, World Bank, 2005. climate change and disasters is a core pillar of DFID’s 2011-2014 business plan. Why insurance? The Hyogo Framework calls for activities to “promote the development of financial risk-sharing mechanisms, particularly insurance and reinsurance against disasters.” However, there are few disaster specific insurance schemes and they are not generally available to poor people. “While the poor are the most vulnerable to risk, the majority of them have to manage risks with their own means. Very few have access to formal insurance.”9 Increasing the availability of insurance against shocks and disasters is seen to have a multitude of benefits because of the timeliness and reliability of an insurance pay-out. Benefits include: Replacement of productive assets, therefore protecting livelihoods; Post disaster income and liquidity negates the need to sell assets to meet emergency needs and to become poorer still; Avoids externally provided assistance that may be politically driven, be slow to arrive and expensive to administer. There is a considerable body of evidence showing external aid can erode local markets, exacerbate social inequalities and undermine dignity;10 Increased entrepreneurial activity as people can take out loans with confidence. The availability of insurance may “unlock” access to credit (i.e. if there is an insurance guarantee, payments can be made). Developing a regional micro insurance mechanism is closely aligned to DFID priorities and strategic goals. The 2010 White Paper included a commitment to “pilot approaches to affordable micro level insurance services for the poor.” In 2010 the Head of DFID’s Climate Environment Group (CEG) set out two underlying reasons: The potential for insurance as a component of the financial inclusion agenda aimed at increasing the economic opportunities for poor people by giving access to loans, credit, mortgages, etc. Insurance can protect these financial instruments from shocks and disasters. The role of insurance within the climate resilience agenda. CEG plans to: “pilot and demonstrate the potential role of insurance as part of a broader strategy in managing climate change risks at the regional, country and household level. The lessons generated (opportunities and constraints) will be useful in designing scaled up climate insurance” The DFID Humanitarian and Emergency Response Review (March 2011) is also strongly supportive of parametric insurance: "As the cost of damage caused by extreme weather conditions is soaring, more sustainable ways to tackle weather risk are needed. Public-private partnerships in risk financing have become more popular, in particular parametric insurance. Insurance can play a role in guaranteeing predictable and reliable payouts, allowing for long-term planning, increasing governments’ self-determination and ownership, protecting livelihoods and diminishing negative effects of relief interventions on local markets 9 Christian Aid, Micro Insurance and DRR, Challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change, Rachele Pierro Humanitarian Practice Network; http://www.odihpn.org/. Sphere standards: http://www.sphereproject.org/ 10 The initiative will contribute to the implementation of global climate change strategies and the decisions agreed at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun, December 2010. Within the call for enhanced action under the Cancun Adaptation Framework is an invitation for “enhancing climate change related disaster risk reduction strategies…..and sharing and transfer mechanisms such as insurance, at local, national, sub regional and regional levels, as appropriate.” Throughout the Caribbean, recent disaster events have shown the weaknesses of existing insurance schemes and the potential for a more affordable parametric product. For example, Hurricane Tomas in 2010 destroyed 80% of the banana crop in St Lucia and a similar proportion in St. Vincent leaving many thousands of small scale farmers with no income for months and relying on income support from the Government (St. Vincent) or charities (e.g. Red Cross in St. Lucia). WINCROP, a banana insurance scheme was operating in both countries. The scale of losses from Tomas has put WINCROP into near insolvency and it has not been able to meet claims from its own reserves. WINCROP’s inherent weakness was that its risk was shared only among countries affected by Tomas - it did not have sufficient reserves or re-insurance to meet claims if the majority of clients suffered losses at the same time (as happened in Tomas). In 2007, Fonkoze and Alternative Insurance Company (AIC) of Haiti offered Fonkoze members the first micro-insurance product in Haiti: a life insurance policy. The programme has successfully been administered to all Fonkoze clients. After the devastating hurricane season of 2008, Fonkoze and AIC began working on a micro insurance product that would extend cover to natural disasters asset losses. Context The initiative builds on DFID’s experiences and the lead role we have taken in developing risk transfer mechanisms in the region and Haiti. In 2007, DFID were among the first contributors to the establishment of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), the world’s first parametric insurance facility to protect Governments against hurricanes and earthquakes. When DFID provided recovery support to Fonkoze after the 2008 tropical storms, we asked Fonkoze to investigate possibilities to introduce an insurance mechanism to protect their loans against future disasters so as to avoid future demands for assistance. DFID subsequently supported CaribRM, the managers of the CCRIF, to help Fonkoze develop an affordable parametric hazard insurance mechanism. Implementation plans were being made when the massive earthquake struck Port au Prince in January 2010. After the earthquake, Fonkoze used a grant from Mercy Corps (another contributor to MiCRO) to provide their micro credit clients with emergency funds – as if insurance was already part of their existing loans. This gave Fonkoze clients catastrophic micro-insurance retroactive to January 12, clearing the balances of their loans, granting them US $120 to use for any immediate emergency needs, and making them eligible for new loans. This allowed a real-time test of many aspects of the insurance mechanism designed by CaribRM. It tested: the scale of payout in relation to earthquake intensity (the parametric trigger); the distribution mechanism (Fonkoze’s offices); the speed of distribution and the impact. This successful testing provides the basis for the MICRO initiative and rationale for current support from DFID and other stakeholders.11 As a result of the test “the overwhelming majority (of Fonkoze clients) say they are willing to pay for insurance in the future, despite the high competition between priority needs.”12 Evidence Over the last five years DFID has been testing innovative risk transfer and insurance mechanisms and models. These include: Mexican government catastrophe bond 2004; Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), 2007;. A weather-index insurance scheme for farmers in Mali and Burkina Faso with design support from The Africa Enterprise Challenge Fund; and. A series of pilots on index-based weather insurance for small farmers and pastoralists in Kenya with support from the Financial Sector Deepening Trust. There are now around 20 pilot parametric (“index”) based insurance schemes in low and middle income countries including China, Ethiopia, India, Malawi, Nicaragua, Peru, Ukraine, and Thailand.13 Christian Aid undertook a comprehensive study of these schemes in 2008 (released in 2011)14. In 2010, the World Food Programme (WFP) and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, produced a report on the sustainability of parametric weather insurance based on nine case studies15. These studies and assessments provide the following lessons and criteria to be incorporated into new pilot schemes. The need for insurance to be linked to micro finance (i.e. as part of a credit loan, not as stand alone insurance); Measuring and setting parametric triggers has been a challenge; Determining the appropriate amount of “basis risk” to be borne by MFIs is critical. Reinsurance companies will not assume all the insured risk. insured. If too much risk is taken by the MFI, the cost of premiums will increase or the ability to pay may be compromised. Those paying for insurance must understand what they are paying for, how the insurance functions and the payouts expected. Insurance must be affordable for clients to be willing to purchase (demand). These issues were also raised in consultations with DFID advisers, micro-insurance experts and further literature reviews. Although this is a pilot, DFID’s experiences with CCRIF and Fonkoze indicate strong project feasibility. Most of the issues above have been addressed by MiCRO design. The metrics for wind, earthquake and rainfall (i.e. measuring and setting trigger mechanisms) to be used by MiCRO and Fonkoze have already been developed and are accepted by the re-insurance market. The MiCRO board structure and operating principles are based on transparent and 11 End of project CaribRM technical support is available on request. http://www.mercycorps.org.uk/koko%C3%A9visossouvi/blog/20722 13 Natural hazards, unnatural disasters: the economics of effective prevention, World Bank 2010. 12 14 The potential role of Disaster Insurance for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, Christian Aid 2011, Rachele Pierro and Bina Desai 15 The potential for scale and sustainability in weather index insurance for agriculture and rural livelihoods , WFP, IFAD, 2010; www.ifad.org/ruralfinance/pub/weather.pdf regulated CCRIF principles tested and verified in a number of disaster events since 2007. Extensive evidence based monitoring systems, open to peer review, will be introduced from the outset to establish baselines that allow an assessment of differences made to livelihoods, local economies and future disaster impacts. Considerable emphasis will be placed on evaluating affordability and cost benefit. Although the scheme is considered to be affordable by Fonkoze, with costs to clients comparable to other micro insurance initiatives, there is less documentation on cost benefits of micro insurance over time between insured and without insurance scenarios. Fonkoze with 44 offices and 45,000 members (all but 600 are women) is well placed to manage effective disaster insurance for its members using the benefit of past experience and already established monitoring and data processing systems. DFID provided post emergency funds to Fonkoze in 2004 and 2008. Fonkoze were positively evaluated both times. In 2005, The Grameen Foundation awarded Fonkoze its Pioneer in Microfinance Award in recognition of the institution’s work towards poverty alleviation in one of the most challenging areas of the world. DFID’s new strategic vision for girls and women, launched March 2011, has four pillars for action. The second, economic assets directed to girls and women, outlines a variety of means to ensure “direct access to, and control over, economic assets”. This includes “support for initiatives to give women and girls the skills, confidence and networks that will help them to keep hold of their economic assets and make productive use of them.” MiCRO will protect the loans and assets of Fonkoze members, mostly women. B. Impact and Outcome Impact Fonkoze members, and those of other micro credit schemes (e.g. saving clubs) in Haiti who take up catastrophe micro insurance will protect their livelihoods and recover more quickly when disaster strikes. Local economies will recover more quickly, reducing the need for external or government assistance. When the micro insurance scheme is expanded elsewhere in the region, other vulnerable groups will be able to maintain livelihoods and recover more quickly when disaster strikes. Outcome Low income groups in Haiti and across the region will take out affordable disaster micro insurance to enhance resilience to and recovery from natural disasters and climate change. Appraisal Case A. Determining Critical Success Criteria (CSC) Each CSC is weighted 1 to 5, where 1 is least important and 5 is most important based on the relative importance of each criterion to the success of the intervention. CSC 1 Description Weighting (1-5) Reliability or predictability of post disaster assistance or 5 pay-out 2 Timeliness of assistance or pay-out to avoid assets being 4 sold Sustainability 5 3 B. Feasible options Options for Disaster Risk Reduction are extensive, differing according to location and hazard. They range from structural protection measures (e.g. more resilient housing and infrastructure), to non-structural measures (e.g. income diversification, hazard awareness, regulation, etc). All will have different effectiveness and cost benefit according to a localised context (e.g. a flood barrier protecting empty fields has less value than a barrier protecting an urban area). This appraisal does not assess options to rebuild houses or essential infrastructure better than before (though this is being done under the other components of the DFIDC Haiti DRR programme). Instead, a focus is given to how to protect micro-entrepreneurs and those who have taken out micro credit loans. This is based on the explicit experience of Fonkoze’s micro credit members in the disaster events of 2004, 2008 and 2010, the effect of disasters on micro credit borrowers and institutions elsewhere and the findings of research suggesting that insurance offers a means to boost entrepreneurial activity in hazard prone locations and allow individuals and markets to recover after impact. The selection of options is demand and experience-led. The first two options relate to different hazard insurance types that can be considered; 1) Indemnity insurance with pay-outs according to experienced losses;16 or 2) Parametric insurance with pay-outs triggered by hazard characteristics (intensities). The third option is “business as usual” waiting for a disaster to happen and then determining what assistance is required and in what form. For example, DFID recapitalised Fonkoze loans post 2008 tropical storms in Haiti. 3) Business as usual – MFIs and their members continue as to be at risk, post disaster support is on an ad hoc basis that depends on unpredictable external support. 16 Indemnity insurance compensates the beneficiaries of insurance policies for their actual economic losses, up to the limiting amount of the insurance policy. Theory of change The theory of change behind the desired outcome and impact is set out in the attached logical framework and described below. Following disasters, micro credit holders who have lost assets and markets are unable to pay back loans. Coping strategies include selling assets (therefore becoming even poorer) or seeking assistance from others (family, government, civil society, etc). This assistance may or may not be forthcoming, adequate, or equitable. In 2004, 2008 and 2010, Fonkoze members lost livelihoods, were unable to pay back loans and could not take out new ones. DFID and other donors provided ex-post funding for Fonkoze to recapitalise loans and allow enterprises to be re-established. In the immediate aftermath of these disasters, neither Fonkoze nor their members were certain of what assistance would be forthcoming. This acted as a brake, reducing confidence to take on borrowing, placed micro-economic activity on hold, and resulted in different coping strategies (e.g. selling assets). The DFID funding to re-capitalise loans in 2008 took five months to be agreed. The desired impact is a predictable and sustainable mechanism that enables micro credit borrowers not to go further into debt and that allows businesses to be re-established early so those affected by disasters can recover faster. This project proposal pilots the development of a micro insurance scheme to protect Fonkoze and micro-credit borrowers in Haiti against natural disasters. A scheme that will be expanded later to other countries and other sectors in the Caribbean – likely to be low income farmers. To reach this outcome, an assessment of the potential to introduce insurance, the type of insurance to be offered and for what hazards is required. Once a desirable insurance “product” is identified, an assessment of the best entity (organisation) to deliver the product and if necessary to establish a new entity. For Haiti this includes consultation with a spectrum of stakeholders; the micro finance sector (ANIMH – association of MFIs, the federation of credit unions, Le Levelt), Fonkoze members, insurance organisations (e.g. AIC, Fonkoze’s life assurance partner) and reinsurance companies. When a product and delivery mechanism is decided on, Fonkoze will offer the product to its own borrowers to ensure acceptance and sustainability. For the outcomes to be realised, and if a new insurance mechanism is put in place, a number of outputs will be required. The insurance facility will have to adequately funded and able to absorb worst case scenario disaster events. An administrative and management system to sell and distribute insurance will be required. Those purchasing insurance must understand how the insurance functions and what it is for. Adequate levels of risk transfer – away from Fonkoze to other institutions (e.g. reinsurance) – must be in place. These issues and options were examined during the feasibility study conducted by CaribRM with DFID support in 2009/2010. They resulted in an insurance product that was tested after the 2010 earthquake and subsequently refined. The assumptions governing appraisal options are; i) insurance will be taken up by individuals; ii) the insurance product/facility will be able to absorb a sequence of hazard events; and iii) distribution of payouts will be acceptable to clients, transparent and well managed. A common concern with insurance are the threats of “adverse selection”17 and “moral hazard18” – that insurance itself may act as a disincentive to reducing risk. This issue has received significant attention as a core programme purpose is to reduce risk, not to maintain or worsen it. Option 1: Business as usual option. The purpose of the appraisal is to find ways to allow poor people to cope better with the effects of natural disasters, and to reduce the need for humanitarian assistance post disaster. It is based on the recognition that “business as usual” assistance is often flawed. Alongside good practice guidelines for humanitarian assistance and internationally agreed standards – for example the “Sphere standards” - there is a wealth of evidence that post emergency assistance, from government or civil society, is often slow to arrive, partial in coverage, expensive and driven by socio-political relationships. The rationale for this project is to protect micro-credit institutions and borrowers better from disasters. It is predicated by evidence that the benefits of access to micro finance and credit are negated by disasters, and that gains made by that micro-finance to that point may be reversed. There are numerous examples of this happening globally. Fonkoze itself is the most relevant – they started to develop the insurance product after recurrent disasters. Option 2: Micro insurance against natural hazards using indemnity insurance. Indemnity insurance is where an insurance pay out is made according to losses experienced, the amount of insurance purchased and a damage assessment. The issue is whether indemnity insurance could be established for low income micro-credit borrowers. In the agricultural sector, because of high monitoring and administrative costs, adverse selection and moral hazard, “traditional" crop insurance has been seen a poor model for export, particularly in developing countries.”19 Indemnity insurance requires a loss adjustment process, which is often long, expensive and complicated, especially in rural or isolated areas, resulting in costs that are passed back to the consumer. These expenses and the risks of corrupt claims have prevented reinsurance being affordable or viable. In 2010 many banana farmers in St. Lucia and St. Vincent were insured by the WINCROP scheme. Because WINCROP was unable to sufficiently re-insure, Hurricane Tomas, which affected both countries at the same time, compromised the company’s ability to payout and WINCROP’s solvency. In 2006, Fonkoze introduced a life assurance insurance scheme for its members with AIC, one of Haiti’s biggest insurers. When investigating the options of insuring members against natural hazards, their first investigations were into indemnity insurance with AIC. The main Adverse selection refers to cost effectiveness of insurance. Those most at risk take out insurance – a balance between high risk and lower risk is desired to spread the cost of insurance. 18 An example of normal moral hazard is when a householder decides not to make repairs to a house because they have insurance – if it is damaged they will be paid with or without repairs. 17 19 The potential for scale and sustainability in weather index insurance for agriculture and rural livelihoods , WFP, IFAD, 2010; www.ifad.org/ruralfinance/pub/weather.pdf reason for not going ahead was the unavailability of affordable re-insurance – AIC (or any other Haitian insurer) had insufficient capital to hold the risks themselves. Following the September 2008 floods and January 2010 earthquake, the costs and risks meant that reinsurance for indemnity products in Haiti effectively became unavailable. Option 3: Index based, or parametric disaster insurance Index insurance refers to insurance against specific hazards or perils, e.g. flood or hurricane. A payout is triggered by a pre-specified event or level of hazard. Parametric insurance has been tested in the agricultural sector. Agriculture yield insurance has been tried successfully in Canada, India, Sweden, and USA. In 2007, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility was launched by the World Bank with DFID support offering regional governments insurance against hurricanes and earthquakes. Parametric insurance is considered to have a number of benefits: Payouts can be paid quickly, saving lives and livelihoods. Because an earthquake or hurricane intensity is known (in real time), payouts can be made immediately. The CCRIF made payouts to St Lucia and St Vincent seven days after Hurricane Tomas. Because the insurance is based on an independently verifiable index, there are more and more affordable options for re-insurance. In the developing world in general and in Haiti in particular, there are no claims records on which to base an assessment of indemnity risk – reinsurers will always therefore, assume the worst and add a very significant uncertainty load to their price. Although hazard data can also be in short supply, modelling is much more certain for hazards than for indemnity risk – and this is reflected in price of re-insurance. There is no requirement for lengthy or expensive verification, and no chance of fraud when using transparent, easily monitored triggers. Payout can be more predictable when attached to clearly understood triggers (e.g. category of hurricane). Moral hazard and adverse selection may be avoided, since all pay the same premium and receive the same payout; a person has the same economic incentive to manage risks as someone without. Parametric insurance, because it is to agreed triggers, is less ad hoc and arguably more easily understood. As with normal insurance, a major issue to be examined is whether poor people will be able to afford the premium, or will it need to be subsidised. The evidence base for parametric insurance and its cost benefit is being built up. A considerable amount of background research is available for the Fonkoze/MiCRO initiative. DFID funded a feasibility study into insurance options for Fonkoze in 2009/2010. This resulted in firm recommendations on the type of insurance, how it should be organised and how it should be managed by Fonkoze. Subsequent to the study, further work has been conducted on affordability, reinsurance rates, premium level etc. Climate and environment relevance of options. There is not expected to be any significant impact on the climate or environment from achieving the outputs. The project will contribute to climate resilience. The business as usual option, with its reliance on ex-post humanitarian assistance, carries a medium risk of environmental impact. There is extensive evidence of post disaster environmental degradation caused by emergency coping measures of those affected (e.g. deforestation for charcoal production). The Caribbean Climate Smart Programme Screening and Evaluation report (February 2011) gives this insurance project a moderate ranking for both risks and opportunities. Under risks, there was concern that insurance could encourage businesses that will be maladjusted to climate change because they would be insured against climate variability. Fonkoze are aware of climate change impacts and consider them in beneficiary selection. Fonkoze members taking out a loan undertake training in DRR this includes awareness of climate change consequences. Fonkoze’s interaction and close relationship with clients provides the opportunity to embrace climate change awareness and positive adaption of small enterprise. In the table below: the quality of evidence for each option is rated as either Strong, Medium or Limited, the likely impact on climate change and environment is categorised as A, high potential risk / opportunity; B, medium / manageable potential risk / opportunity; C, low / no risk / opportunity; or D, core contribution to a multilateral organisation. Option Evidence rating Climate change and environment category (A, B, C, D) Ex Ante Humanitarian assistance or Government A support to micro-entrepreneurs and micro credit loan holders (cash transfers, cash for work, recapitalisation of credit loans – as per DFID 2008). Evidence: Medium Traditional indemnity insurance based on actual B losses; Evidence: Limited MICRO – An insurance mechanism with a B Parametric triggers; Evidence: Limited20 1 2 3 C. Appraisal of options The costs and benefits of the three options and how they relate to critical success criteria are summarised in broad terms below: Sustainability Business as usual 20 Micro credit gains continue to be threatened by natural disaster Livelihoods post disaster depend on external attention The evidence base globally, explained in context is still slim. Traditional insurance Parametric insurance/MiCRO Cost Business as usual Traditional insurance Fonkoze/MiCRO Unassisted poor are made poorer still MFI’s operations jeopardised Sustainability depends on external support High cost limits re-insurance or demand for insurance product Examples of insurance failure, e.g. WINCROP. Fonkoze examined traditional insurance for natural hazards but could not find partners Moral hazard and adverse selection Few global examples but good practice/success requirements of these have been incorporated into Fonkoze design. Potential disparity between actual losses and insurance trigger. MiCRO fund designed to absorb a series of 5 years of 1 in 250 year events Parametric measuring and triggers already in place AIC willing to be a partner to Fonkoze in Haiti Insurance scheme test piloted post 2010 earthquake Governance and regulatory outlines as per CCRIF – management to a high calibre (CDB to chair, will also manage trust fund) Broad-based support from major institutions –Swiss Re, Swiss Development Cooperation, CaribRM, Guy Carpenter, Mercy Corps, IADB New payment mechanisms have to be designed and introduced post disaster - often by external humanitarian response agencies with high overheads. Businesses and household incomes lost post disaster Amounts invested in micro credit may be negated by the next disaster event. e.g. DFID’s re-capitalisation in 2008. Individual loans and MFI investments protected More expensive than parametric or not available Insurance may allow further access to credit, new technologies and more productive investments Livelihood benefit of re-establishment of income Avoids selling of assets Low cost of re-insurance Set up costs of MiCRO minimal – based on Fonkoze offices and administration Trigger mechanisms already tested and in place and very low cost to operate Insurance may allow further access to credit, new technologies and more productive investments Livelihood benefit of re-establishment of income Avoids selling of assets Timeliness and predictability Business as usual Support may be delayed as interest is on humanitarian assistance before early recovery (e.g. DFID recapitalisation in 2008 was five months after the floods), early recovery criticised post 2010 earthquake for being too slow. Time required for external agencies to organise in field partnerships. Assistance may not be forthcoming – It is subject to public interest and political will Traditional insurance Payment delays because of lengthy assessments History of insurance being cancelled (e.g. Montserrat 1997) Collapse of insurance company to a large event Parametric/MiCRO Quick and when needed most. CCRIF pays two weeks after impact Trigger mechanisms in place and verifiable within a matter of hours Social Business as usual Traditional insurance Parametric/MiCRO Negative benefits Business as usual Traditional insurance Parametric/MiCRO Tensions exacerbated by coping capacities and potential conflicts over access to post disaster assistance Dependency Social cohesion aided by maintaining livelihood and income Resilience and self determination Social cohesion aided by maintaining livelihood and income Resilience and self determination Continuing loss of income and livelihood from natural disasters to MFI members and institutions Moral hazard, adverse selection, cost, sustainability Cost to policy holder if no hazard/disaster Cost to policy holder if no hazard/disaster Credibility if the trigger does not match losses False sense of security Summary and selection of options Fonkoze’s experience (tropical storms 2004, 2008) is that donor support is required to recapitalise and to re-establish client loans otherwise their members will go more into debt taking out a new loan. This has been shown not to be sustainable for MFIs in Haiti21. In many cases, the wellbeing of clients post disaster depends on the level of international attention and concern. In the case of more localised events, such assistance is unlikely to be forthcoming. For instance, a small hurricane may not grab international headlines or result in an international appeal, but it could wipe out the livelihoods of all those affected. 21 New York Times, Can Micro Credit Save Haiti? November 13, 2010 The business as usual option ignores requirements and opportunities to build Disaster Risk Reduction into recovery strategies or, as is the case with Fonkoze, to address the exposure of micro credit to natural disasters. Fonkoze have concluded they can best serve their members by providing insurance for micro credit loans. Fonkoze investigated options for normal indemnity type insurance and parametric insurance pre 2010 earthquake. They could not find an insurance company willing to offer indemnity insurance for disasters. Fonkoze then investigated and selected parametric insurance as the most viable and cost effective mechanism to meet optimum design. D. Comparison of Options Each option has been compared against critical success criteria in the attached table (D). Option 3, MiCRO has the highest score (56/possible 70) by a considerable margin. (see annex for table) Analysis of options against critical success criteria. Option 1 Option 2 Business as Indemnity usual CSC Description Weighting score Wt score Wt (1-5) score score 1 Reliability or 5 1 5 3 15 predictability of post disaster assistance or pay-out 2 Timeliness of 4 assistance or pay-out to avoid assets being sold Sustainability 5 3 Option 3 Parametric/MiCRO score 4 Wt score 20 2 8 3 12 4 16 1 Total 5 18 1 5 32 4 20 56 Optimum design - MiCRO Optimal design for Fonkoze insurance requires: An insurance scheme easily understood by micro-credit borrowers and affordable to them; Prompt post disaster pay out; Sustainability; a) an ability to absorb a series of large disaster events b) micro credit clients are willing to pay the premiums c) Payouts proportionate to the amount of premium paid; Losses which are closely matched to the amount of insurance pay-out; and Compensation to those who suffer losses to markets/livelihood even if they are not in the immediate disaster area. These criteria are met by the parametric insurance mechanism that will be provided by MiCRO and distributed to Fonkoze’s clients. MiCRO’s design benefits from the technical and administrative mechanisms used by the CCRIF, and hazard data and trigger mechanisms will be open to public scrutiny. Success of the programme for Fonkoze clients, and expansion options, depends on sustainability. MiCRO addresses the two key determinants of affordability; a) survivability b) affordability to clients: MiCRO will absorb a one in 1,000 worst case hazard scenarios and a series of five consecutive one in 250 hazard events. Models, hazard data and costing information will all be open to public scrutiny and are set out in the attached MiCRO Business Plan. Fonkoze has prepared an outline of how insurance will work for its clients. This states the cost of the insurance and how it works: “If there is a natural disaster, such as a hurricane, flood, landslide or earthquake, during the period that you are covered, Fonkoze will: • give you 5000 gourds to help you recover* • reimburse the loan from Fonkoze which was outstanding at the time of the disaster and Fonkoze will provide you with a new loan when you are ready to restart your business. The initial insurance charge will be 2% of the loan taken rising over three years to 6%. This subsidy is deemed necessary to introduce and validate a new financial mechanism. The expectation is Fonkoze clients will pay the larger amount once they see or realise the benefits of insurance. Even if Fonkoze clients do not wish to pay additional premiums (up to the 6%) in future Fonkoze may continue to subsidise clients or maintain the insurance to protect their asset base against future disasters. This is a pilot study. The programme will provide valuable lessons for future insurance options. Fonkoze’s confidence in the insurance product offered to its clients is well founded. The insurance mechanism was successfully tested by Fonkoze after the 2010 earthquake when assistance to clients was distributed as if insurance was in place (i.e. 5,000 gourde payout and re-imbursement of loan). Resource costs of options The MiCRO business plan submitted to financial regulators (February 2011) sets out the following financial arrangements: Gross premium: $1.1M collected from Fonkoze Premium to re-insurance; $750K parametric reinsurance charge from Swiss Re (first year) Essentially re-insurance is insurance for insurance companies. Only by sharing some of their risk with re-insurers is it possible for primary insurers (e.g. MiCRO) to offer cover against key risks. The majority of risk held by MiCRO (what they will have to pay out) will be re-insured with (transferred to) SwissRe. This means that MiCRO will always be able to make a payment should the insurance be triggered and that disasters do not eliminate MiCRO’s capacity to pay-out or offer further insurance. 22 Net Premium: $350K net premium kept by MICRO for basis risk assumed (the amount MiCRO will pay out before re-insurance is received)less: Fixed Expenses: rates $220K/$175K in year one/subsequent years. All fees are at market Item Contractor Name Tech Ops Manager CaribRM General Operational Expenses CaribRM Admin Manager March Captive Services Placing Broker Guy Carpenter MicroRisk Regulatory Fees Government of Barbados Legal Fees Chancery Chambers Financial Audit TBD Board Costs Various D&O Insurance TBD Pre-Incorp Cost (USD) Annual Cost (USD) $ 15,000 $ 75,000 $ 15,000 $ 35,000 $ 10,650 $ 2,500 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 20,000 $ 38,150 $ 500 $ 5,000 $ 160,500 Bank charges External Actuarial Audit Total 22 TBD http://www.swissre.com/rethinking/The_essential_guide_to_reinsurance.html Expected Losses: $251K/Scalable in year one/subsequent Growth Projections: 10% per annum based on expectations of increases in number of Fonkoze loans and client base (other metrics scaled accordingly) Investment Income: 2.35% on all investable capital - the premiums received, but not paid out – including original investment capital (e.g. DFID contribution) will be invested with returns going against administration and need for future re-insurance. Because investments will follow CDB low risk investment guidelines the returns will be expected to be conservative (hence 2.35%). Initial Capitalization: $5M – UK£3.125m (@$1.6/£) DFID contribution to capitalisation $1.5m Mercy Corps $0.5m Fonkoze $0.75m Swiss Development $1.0m (to be confirmed, expected June 2011) IDB $ 1.25m (considering up to 3m) DFID funding will be a grant to MiCRO via a trust fund set up by CDB. The grant will be drawn down against MiCRO claims. CDB has experience of setting up and managing multi donor trust funds used by DFID (e.g. CARTFUND), DFID are a major CDB shareholder and board member. The CDB president elect is a member of the CCRIF board that uses similar governance and financial management arrangements. Other alternative delivery channels have been considered for technical inputs and for reinsurance. The chosen partners are: Reinsurance. For the first year of start up, MICRO will re-insure with SwissRe. SwissRe are contributing MiCRO development support on a pro-bono basis. Technical. CaribRM will act as technical operators providing parametric and design of risk coverage, including parametric trigger calculations and management of claims settlements. Marsh Capital Services will be contracted to provide regulatory and corporate secretarial support, accounting and policy issuance services. To ensure/maintain value for money, all providers of contracted services will be put to competitive tender when the MiCRO board deems most appropriate. The expectation is that this will happen after the first year when MiCRO will be reviewed. 23 Balance of costs and benefits 23 See MiCRO Insurance Business Summary for full breakdown of MiCRO organisation MiCRO is a cheaper, more effective option than indemnity insurance. There are no other parametric insurance options available for micro credit within the region. In acknowledgement of the sense of proportion governing appraisals, and the funding for this project, a full cost benefit has not been carried out. There is no detailed CBA available for micro-insurance programmes similar to the MiCRO/Fonkoze initiative. However, there are cost-benefit analyses available for indexbased agricultural insurance in India and Africa. For example “In drought-hit northern Tanzania, insurance-backed farm loans of about $1,000 per year have helped farmers who once produced five bags of maize per acre boost their harvests to 28 bags in good years, said Steve Coffey, VP Strategic Relations, MicroEnsure…… Even after repaying the loans, interest and the cost of the insurance, farmers are seeing their income per acre more than triple.”24 As a pilot, it is expected that the project will measurably demonstrate that insurance provides the means for microcredit clients to risk more of their resources, for greater return, than would be the case without insurance. In addition it is expected that cost benefit will be able to be shown for the rapid payment which index-based insurance enables. A survey will be conducted of Fonkoze’s micro borrowers and compared against a similar sample of microborrrowers who do not have insurance to assess whether insurance has increased their appetite for risk. E. Measures to be used or developed to assess value for money A strong indicator of value for money is ratio of the premium to the “pure risk cost” which is the annualised loss expected for a particular coverage. The premium price to pure risk metric indicates the efficiency at which the insurance programme is operating. Conventional indemnity insurance programmes (e.g. property insurance in the Caribbean) typically run at multiples of pure risk to premium of 4 to 625. The projected multiple for MiCRO clients (1.5 times pure risk) compares favourably. The nearest equivalent on a global scale is CCRIF, which is currently charging a multiple of 1.75 over pure risk. In MiCRO’s case this means for every £1.50 that Fonkoze pays in premium, it will, over time, get £1 back in paid claims (of which about 50p will go directly to clients and 50p will pay off outstanding loan balances). For the CCRIF, currently, countries pay £1.75 to get £1 in payouts – but the long-term stable multiple lies between 1.25 and 1.5. Although this value for money figure is low – it does not threaten sustainability of MiCRO (e.g. a concern that premiums received will not cover losses). MiCRO’s financial models allow it to absorb (i.e. provide insurance cover) five years of successive 1 in 250 year hazard losses. Another measures for the “economy” of MICRO includes the cost of the insurance as a percentage of the sum insured. At present this is circa 10% which is comparable to other micro insurance schemes. MiCRO has lower costs for four main reasons: 1. Parametric insurance allows reinsurance to be purchased without a heavy premium for uncertainty – the amounts to be paid out for a hazard occurrence are known in 24 25 Insured loans help small farmers reduce hunger, climate risks, Alertnet December 2010 CaribRM, 2011 advance. 2. Cost of capital is very low (due to initial donor support) – in the high layers (unlikely events, big payouts) of a regular reinsurance programme, the cost of capital which has to be assigned to cover that risk is very high. 3. Administration costs are very low – partly due to donor support for product development, partly due to low marketing costs, but mainly due to the parametric mechanism – adjusting and claims administration costs are high for any indemnity programme but especially for catastrophe perils. 4. MiCRO start-up costs are extremely low as parametric hazard assessments have already been developed by CCRIF and SwissRe. Systems are already in place to deliver insurance and payments to individual loan holders (as tested by CaribRM DFID) and Fonkoze is already well established and well run. The level of MICRO survivability influences the cost of insurance and re-insurance purchased. Current survivability is put at a 1 in 250 chance of a series of events triggering MICRO pay-outs. DFID will track value for money from programme inception. Measures will be introduced to ensure the MiCRO is being managed efficiently. Oversight of MiCRO, but also how Fonkoze organises the insurance will be reported on to the board and open to DFID and public scrutiny. Close attention will be paid to monitoring value for money; tracking the value of all services provided to MiCRO, but essentially the cost and benefit to Fonkoze clients. Baseline data will be collected on Fonkoze clients at programme inception to assess perceptions, affordability and benefit. Data will also be collected for micro credit holders not taking out insurance so comparisons can be made (see Management Case section D: Monitoring and Evaluation). Commercial Case A. Clearly state the procurement/commercial requirements for intervention DFID will make one payment to set up MiCRO. The payment will be indirect, in the form of a grant to MiCRO via a trust fund set up by CDB. This amount will provide a capital base to establish a re-insurance company licensed and able to provide disaster micro insurance to Fonkoze. Fonkoze will in turn provide an insurance product to its micro credit borrowers. The DFID grant will be drawn down against claims payments. This is the same model used for DFID’s 2007 contribution to the CCRIF capital base. B. How does the intervention design use competition to drive commercial advantage for DFID? There is no other insurance mechanism operating in the region similar to this innovative pilot initiative or one close to providing a similar process. Haiti’s MFIs operate in a competitive environment so design has taken into account the cost/benefit of providing this coverage. All MICRO procurement, of technical inputs, insurance (e.g. Haiti insurance provider and Reinsurance) will be put to tender once the board considers it most cost effective to do so. The board will consider the optimum time to offer tenders for all consultancy services. The trust board will review at the end of the first year. By the end of the first six months the board will agree criteria and processes to be followed to ensure all technical and managerial inputs to MiCRO are optimised. Criteria will include value for money, technical proficiency and capacity to deliver without increasing financial risks (i.e. less return) to Fonkoze and its clients. The two major costs are those for 1) CaribRM, a private company that will manage MiCRO for the first year, and 2) Swiss Re, the re-insurance company selected for MiCRO start up for a fixed fee according to a business case provided to the MiCRO board. The fee will be reviewed each year. The board will consider the optimum time to offer tenders for all consultancy services, reporting back after the first year. At the end of the first year the board will decide when it is most appropriate, using the agreed criteria, to put the management contract to tender and for how long (e.g. for 2 years if this lowers costs). At the end of the first year tendering will take place for the re-insurance contract subject to criteria agreed by the board. CaribRM became involved in the initiative in 2009 when they carried out a feasibility and insurance design study for Fonkoze and DFID. This involved an investigation into the most cost effective insurance options. SwissRe was selected because they were offered the cheapest re-insurance, partly because of their desire to offer pro-bono support to Haiti post earthquake, partly because of their involvement with CCRIF (for which Swiss Re provide the lowest comparative costs verified by the World Bank). Swiss Re are using the initiative to build their own knowledge base and added value for future expansion of micro-credit and to build their own competiveness in new and expanding markets. C. How do we expect the market place will respond to this opportunity? It is anticipated the market place with react enthusiastically to the opportunity of offering and profiting from, providing financial services to clients they hitherto had limited access to. An underpinning rationale of Swiss Re providing low initial costs and pro-bono support, is their expectation of larger markets and using the pilot study to build their expertise and added value26. SwissRe support to MiCRO will not result in any future unfair advantage. D. What are the key underlying cost drivers? How is value added and how will we measure and improve this? The key cost drivers to the costs of insurance and DFID’s contribution to MiCRO are: The size of the capital fund and the risk the capital fund can absorb (without reinsurance); So long as the number of pay-outs is not to worse case scenarios (i.e. a one in 1,000 year event will reduce the capital base to 40%), the capital base will increase as more premia are paid and as income comes from investment. This increase will diminish the cost of re-insurance (at 75% of initial premia) The cost of re-insurance; Survivability – the scope of disasters the fund and re-insurance can absorb (and payout), e.g. a once in a thousand year earthquake intensity; Expansion to other countries, spreading risks and lessening the need for re-insurance Investments by other donors into the capital fund; and The cost of MiCRO administration, claims settlements and management. To be put to tender. The main mechanism and control to ensure value for money and efficiency will be the MiCRO board. Those sitting on the board include: Fonkoze Director Mercy Corps CDB appointee DFID appointee Independent expert (from CCRIF board) E. What is the intended Procurement Process to support contract award? None – A one off Grant payment will be made to MiCRO F. How will contract & supplier performance be managed through the life of the intervention? The MiCRO operating company will report to the board on the management of contracts and supplies. Robust financial and reporting systems will be introduced to meet DFID project cycle management requirements. 26 http://media.swissre.com/documents/sigma6_2010_en.pdf Financial Case A. How much it will cost £955,000 £2m for DRR was approved in the January 2010 Haiti submission. This £955,000 will be an accrual from financial year 2010/11. B. How it will be funded: capital/programme/admin Programme (RDEL) C. How funds will be paid out There will be one payment to MiCRO as a contribution to MiCRO’s capital base. It will be paid, by grant, when the multi donor trust fund managed by the CDB is established (May 2011). DFID’s contribution includes a £50K towards evaluation and base-line data collection. The remainder will be used solely against claims and will be drawn down over time. D. How expenditure will be monitored, reported, and accounted for MiCRO will submit six month reports to the board of trustees on activities, outputs, outcomes. MiCRO will submit six monthly financial reports to board members and investors. MiCRO yearly accounts will be independently audited, approved by the Barbados insurance regulator and distributed by the MiCRO board to trustees and investors. Within two weeks of an insurance pay-out an event report will be produced continuing all relevant hazard and financial data. At the end of the first year an independent review and process assessment will be organised. This will inform DFID project cycle management requirements. MiCRO will be reported on for DFID PCM purposes for three years. No funds are expected to be returned during the project cycle. Management Case A. Oversight MiCRO will have a board of directors appointed by mutual agreement of donor and investment partners. The board will be chaired by CDB. Composition will include representatives of major investment/shareholders and donor representatives. DFID will have representation on the MiCRO board. B. Management Management of MiCRO will be provided by CaribRM for the first year for a fixed fee at approximately 2.5% of the DFID grant. By the end of the first year the board will decide on the optimum length of contract to be put out to tender. Fonkoze will be the first distributor and facilitator of insurance from MiCRO to Fonkoze members and to other MFIs in Haiti. Fonkoze will be responsible for: Sales and distribution at Fonkoze local offices Premium collection through regular interest payments Claims settlements C. Conditionality None D. Monitoring and Evaluation A monitoring and strategy will be in place from the outset. Baseline data of Fonkoze members taking out insurance will be collected at the beginning of the project. A sample will be taken to assess differences insurance will make on livelihoods over time. This will include a representative Knowledge, Attitude and Practices survey which will include disaster risk indicators. Evidence and data collection will be of a depth and standard to justify any expansion or scale up of this pilot initiative. The MiCRO managers will provide six monthly progress and financial reports. An independent performance review will take place at the end of the first year. Because the project is innovative it has been selected by DFID C for independent evaluation after three years. This will require extensive base line data collection of Fonkoze members but also from un-insured micro credit holders to enable comparative assessments of impact and effectiveness. £50k from DFID’s contribution is earmarked towards evaluation. The micro board will determine and agree any scale up of MiCRO to other countries or sectors. E. Risk Assessment The key risks that threaten delivery Category Risk Risk 1 Political unrest Risk 2 Low demand for insurance Political and civil unrest stops Fonkoze and MFI operations Fonkoze clients do not want to spend extra amounts on insurance. This has been tested and verified post 2010. If the insurance is seen to be too expensive, many will not renew borrowing. . Risk 3 Mismatch between insurance payout and damage Risk 4 Natural Disasters Risk 5 Funding Mismatch between loss of policy holder (MiCRO) and the payment under the insurance contract (Fonkoze member) – jeopardises capital base, demand for insurance or assistance provided to clients A severe series of disasters destroys the capital base This ratio will be increased by increasing re-insurance if collections are more than disbursements and more income is received. Funding amounts do not materialise to provide insurance to Fonkoze members. Funding does not materials from Swiss Development or other donors Reduced potential to offer insurance to other MFIs in Haiti and elsewhere in the region Mitigating action Fonkoze maintains its non political stance Fonkoze maintains ability to function in midst of crisis (e.g. Post Aristide violence, 2010 earthquake) Transparent insurance mechanism and information to insurance clients Residual probability Residual impact Low Low Medium Medium Medium Low Low High Low Medium Medium Medium Pricing of insurance to be reviewed; premium vs. risk insured Continuing refinement by CaribRM of hazard data and triggers Access to data being developed by KAC, Caribbean Institute of Meteorology MiCRO/Fonkoze able to absorb basis risk with capital base Re-insurance An acceptable level of survivability – 5 x I in 250 minimum – the high end of global insurance company standards The worst case scenario is that MiCRO has to pay out all its assets because of a sequence of disasters – the money will still go to vulnerable people in need. DFID approval given early There are firm commitments from elsewhere (e.g IADB, Mercy Corps, USAID) DFID promotes and influences other donor DFID engagement will prompt, be a stimulus for others Early MiCRO performance F. Results and Benefits Management Milestones and targets against indicators are set out in the programme logframe. The project log-frame is attached.