Play Ball! – Or Not….
Whether the Weather will compel you to call the Game Off
Part 1
June 23, 2015
The Chatsworth Little League championship game is scheduled for a 6:00 PM first pitch. There is pressure to get
the game in as the school year is ending and summer vacations are starting for many team members. The weather
forecast has south Jersey in a zone where severe weather may occur during the late afternoon or evening. (see
Figure 2)
Figure 1: Accuweather forecast outlook issued at 8:00 AM June 23, 2015
The National Weather Service Philadelphia office issued the following forecast at 12:30 PM that day:
Forecast
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTONINCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHARTON STATE FOREST
1230 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
.THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. BREEZY...HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
Questions:
1. Referring to Figure 1, what weather can be expected at the time of the game in Chatsworth, NJ?
2. Referring to the forecast from the National Weather Service, has the forecast changed from 8AM? ________
Explain with evidence.
3. What is your decision on whether or not to play the game as scheduled? ___________ Explain with evidence.
Part 2
The time is now 4:30 PM. The morning severe outlook only gives you initial information that there will be a need for
further evaluation or assessment several hours before the game starts. Here is the dilemma:
 Make a late afternoon decision to postpone the game?
 Start the game and keep an eye on the weather?
 Start the game early and get it in before a storm arrives?
 Pay no attention to the forecast?
Here is your 4:15 PM National Weather Service forecast:
Forecast
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTONINCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHARTON STATE FOREST
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
Sewell
Chatsworth-Oswego Lake
Hammonton
Figure 2: Locations mentioned in this case study
Figure 3: National Weather Service radar image for 4:30 PM, June 23, 2015
Here is the weather data from the NJ WeatherNet for the 3 locations identified in Figure 2. Note that Oswego Lake
is located near Chatsworth, NJ.
Sewell, June 23 2015
95
Temperature/dewpoint (°F)
90
85
80
Temperature
Dewpoint
75
70
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
65
Time
350
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
Time
Wind Direction (degrees from north)
35
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
Wind Speed Average (mph)
Sewell, June 23 2015
Wind Speed Average
Wind Dir Average
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
Wind Speed Average (mph)
35
350
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
Time
Wind Direction (degrees from north)
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
Temperature/dewpoint (°F)
Figure 4: Weather Data for Sewell, NJ
Hammonton, June 23 2015
95
90
85
80
75
Temperature
70
Dewpoint
65
60
Time
Hammonton, June 23 2015
Wind Speed Average
Wind Dir Average
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
Wind Speed Average (mph)
35
350
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
Time
Figure 6: Weather Data for Oswego Lake, NJ (near Chatsworth)
Wind Direction (degrees from north)
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
Temperature/dewpoint (°F)
Figure 5: Weather data for Hammonton, NJ
Oswego Lake, June 23 2015
95
90
85
80
Temperature
75
Dewpoint
70
65
Time
Oswego Lake, June 23 2015
Wind Speed Average
Wind Dir Average
Questions:
1. Look at the latest forecast and radar (Figure 3). Has the forecast changed for this region since the morning
forecast? ______ Explain with evidence from the forecast and radar.
2. Figures 4-6 consists of the data from the day of the storm. At this point in the scenario, you only have access to
the data up to 4:30 PM at each station. What time is that on the charts? _______________
Assess the data from a spatial viewpoint using the map in Figure 2 for assistance. Is there much of a difference
across this region? _________ Explain with evidence.
3. Now let's consider the dilemma.
 Make a late afternoon decision to postpone the game?
 Start the game and keep an eye on the weather?
 Start the game early and get it in before a storm arrives?
 Pay no attention to the forecast?
What is your decision?__________________________________________________________________ Explain
your reasoning from the evidence available to you up to 4:30 PM only!
Part 3
It is now 6:00 PM and the decision was to play the game while keeping an eye on the storm by using hand-held
devices with access to http://njweather.org while at the game, and by having someone keep an eye on the western
sky. Your new data includes the data after 4:30 PM found in Figures 4-6 in Part II, and the National Weather Service
radar images below.
Figure 7: National Weather Service radar image for 6:00 PM, June 23, 2015
Figure 8: National Weather Service radar image for 6:18 PM, June 23, 2015
Figure 9: National Weather Service radar image for 6:30 PM, June 23, 2015
Questions:
1. Using the data in Figures 4-6 from 4:30 PM to 6:30 PM, complete the table below describing the changes
observed in each of the parameters at each location. Remember, to support your descriptions with evidence from
the data!
Location
Temperature & Dew Point
Wind Speed & Wind Direction
Sewell
Hammonton
Oswego Lake/
Chatsworth
2. Now, analyze the radar data in Figures 7-9. Approximately how fast is the storm moving? ______________ How
did you arrive at this answer?
3. What should the umpires and coaches do at this point?
Part 4
Here are the data from the event.
5-Minute Precipitation Totals at 3 Southern NJ
Stations, June 23 2015
0.35
0.25
0.20
Sewell Precip
0.15
Hammonton Precip
0.10
Oswego Lake Precip
0.05
19:15
19:10
19:05
19:00
18:55
18:50
18:45
18:40
18:35
18:30
18:25
18:20
18:15
18:10
18:05
0.00
18:00
5-Minute Precipitation (inches)
0.30
Time
Figure 10: Precipitation data from the 3 locations
Air Temperature at 3 Southern NJ Stations,
June 23 2015
95
Sewell Temperature
90
Hammonton Temperature
85
Temperature (°F)
Oswego Lake Temperature
80
75
70
Figure 11: Temperature data from the 3 locations
19:30
19:25
19:20
19:15
19:10
19:05
19:00
18:55
18:50
18:45
18:40
Time
18:35
18:30
18:25
18:20
18:15
18:10
18:05
18:00
17:55
17:50
17:45
17:40
17:35
17:30
65
Wind Gusts at 3 Southern NJ Stations,
June 23 2015
70
Sewell Wind Gusts
60
Hammonton Wind Gusts
Oswego Wind Gusts
Wind Speed Maximum (mph)
50
40
30
20
10
17:30
17:35
17:40
17:45
17:50
17:55
18:00
18:05
18:10
18:15
18:20
18:25
18:30
18:35
18:40
18:45
18:50
18:55
19:00
19:05
19:10
19:15
19:20
19:25
19:30
0
Time
Figure 12: Wind gusts from the 3 locations
Final Task:
You are a National Weather Service Forecaster who documented this event and have now been tasked with
creating a summary report about it. Use all of the data provided to you (including but not limited to Figures 10-12)
to create a 3+ paragraph summary of the storm that includes numerous references to the data presented
throughout the case. You will be assessed on how well you can tell the scientific story of this event.