28 | Salvador, Sunday, July 13, 2014
HARSH WINTER
July is the month that records the most deaths (both
natural and violent deaths) in Brazil and in Bahia.
The reason may be the cold and rainy weather, which
increases respiratory problems and the chance
of infections. More young people die in the summer
BAHIA DEMOGRAPHICS
Month of Death
July is when
most deaths occur in
Bahia; cold and rain
are the villains
Juan Torres and Thais Borges
mais@correio24horas.com.br
They say there’s only one certainty in life: death. But now there's another: the fact that the greatest
chance of dying is in the month of July. At least in Brazil – and also in Bahia.
Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) analyzed by CORREIO show that,
between 2003 and 2012, July was the month with the most deaths per day on five occasions. In two
other years, June was the leader.
In the past ten years, on average, 70,000 people have died per year in Bahia (considering both natural
and violent causes). If the distribution were uniform, each day should have an average of 192 deaths.
July, however, registers an average of 201 deaths per day – 17 more than November, which is the month
with the fewest deaths. Although the difference is not so great in relation to the other months, it is
constant.
In Brazil, the situation is similar. There are, on average, one million deaths per year, which would result
in 2,900 deaths per day. July, however, has an average of 3,100 deaths per day.
But what’s the reason behind so many deaths in the same period? “The first hypothesis is the issue of
climate, because it is a colder month, which facilitates the propagation of respiratory diseases. In the
winter, people are in closer proximity to each other, and this increases contagion and later the
worsening of the situation,” analyzed Joilson Rodrigues, the information dissemination coordinator of
the IBGE in Bahia.
It makes sense, and the statistics show that in the South and Southeast regions of the country – where
the winter often has temperatures below 10° or eventually even below 0° - the difference in deaths in
June and July compared to the other months is even greater than in the other regions of the country
(see graphic on next page). In the countries of Europe and in the United States, the peak in the death
rate is also in the winter, which is from December to March there.
But since when is it cold enough in Bahia and in the Northeast to increase the death rate?
“Here, in Bahia, as well as in the rest of the Northeast, the problem is the increase in the precipitation
rate,” says the regulating doctor of the Urgent Mobile First Aid Service (Samu), Maria do Socorro
Mendonça, who is also the president of the Bahian Association of Pediatric Surgery.
That is: even when the temperatures don’t fall greatly, as in the case of Salvador, it is necessary to be
careful. The simple fact that rainfall is more frequent makes people prefer to stay indoors. And although
this is very good, it can also be dangerous, according to geriatrician Christiane Machado, professor at
the Federal University of Bahia (Ufba).
“People are in closer quarters, gathered in enclosed spaces. This can contribute to the proliferation of
contagious and respiratory diseases during this season. This is why we have campaigns to get vaccinated
against Influenza every year,” she explains, referring to the flu virus.
Professor Luís Edmundo Campos, from the Ufba Polytechnic School, also blames the rain. The problem is
that the rain leaves the houses more humid, exacerbating the problem of respiratory infections.”
THE ELDERLY
The elderly suffer the most from the cold (and its consequences). “In July, as well as in the rest of the
winter, there is a greater number of deaths among people who have their systems compromised, such
as children and the elderly. They catch viral infections more easily,” says the coordinator of the
Medicine course at the State University of Bahia (Uneb), Hermila Guedes, also an advisor of the
Regional Medical Council of Bahia (Cremeb).
In addition to July, there are also spikes in the death rate in January and December. But this can be
explained by many reasons. “The problem could be the type of disease. In January and December, we
have diseases typical of the summer, such as dengue fever,” explains infectious disease specialist Ceuci
Nunes, director of the Couto Maia Hospital. In addition, it is in this period that the death rate among
young people increases (see next page).
GRAPHICS
Average deaths per day, month by month (2003 – 2012)
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
Average daily deaths year by year in Bahia (2003-2012)
JULY – APRIL – JULY – JULY – APRIL – JULY – JUNE – JULY – JUNE – SEPTEMBER
(PAGE 29)
Distribution of deaths month by month, by region (Per 100,000 inhabitants)
SOUTH
SOUTHEAST
NORTHEAST
CENTRAL-WEST
NORTH
Deaths per day of young people ages 15-24 (average, 2003-2012)
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
In the winter, there
are more deaths among
people who have
their system
compromised
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Hermila Guedes,
Medical coordinator of Uneb
In Bahia, as in the
rest of the Northeast,
the problem is the
increase in rainfall
Maria do Socorro Mendonça,
Regulating doctor of Samu
People stay closer
together. This can
contribute to the
spread of disease
Christiane Machado,
Geriatrician and professor at Ufba
Deaths of young people are concentrated
in January, February, and March
Of the 192 deaths that occur per day, on average, in Bahia, 10 are of young people between 15 and 24 years
of age. Within this group, the summer months of December, January, and February are those with the highest
number of recorded deaths. Evidently, this has nothing to do with the cold. These are the months that also
have the highest number of violent deaths (homicides and traffic accidents), in which young people are typically
the victims. In addition to the summer months, there is also a peak in the death rate of young people in June –
but again, it has nothing to do with the cold. This time, the reason is the São João festival.
Generally, more deaths occur in the month of June and during the period of summer vacation from school.
Then, in July, we have a drop,” says inspector Virgílio Tourinho, adjunct superintendent of the Federal Highway
Police (PRF). Last July, 68 people died on Bahian roads – it is the seventh month in the ranking, behind
months like February, December, and January, respectively. “These are periods when there are many cars on
the highways. In July, the quantity of vehicles decreases greatly.”
Similarly, the increase in mortality has little to do with the number of accidents within the city. Last year, July
was tied in last place in the ranking of months with the greatest number of fatal accident victims in Salvador.
According to Transalvador, 13 deaths were recorded in each of these months. Meanwhile, 34 people died in
November, which is in first place in the ranking.
July is also the last-ranked month in terms of homicides. According to statistics from the Secretariat of Public
Safety (SSP), last July 94 killings were recorded in Salvador. The highest month was March, with 149
incidents, followed by January (142) and November (138).
March is the month with the most
births in Bahia
If July is the month of death, March is the month of life. As CORREIO reported on March 16, this is the month
with the greatest number of births in the state (and in the country) every year. Why? No one knows. When
faced with the study performed by CORREIO, no specialist dared to give a definitive explanation. The statistics,
both in the state and in the country, show that historically there is a peak in the birth rate in March; another,
smaller, in May; and after that the number of births falls until December.
The month of June is nine months before March. Doctor Elsimar Coutinho, one of the greatest authorities in
gynecology and human reproduction in Bahia, attempted an explanation based on São João: “Husbands spend
more time with their families, and this is when more children are conceived. It’s cold, people sleep together and
cuddle. The climate of June is more conducive to this,” he said.
In the article “Seasonality of Births in Brazil,” the doctor of Demographics and specialist in Fertility and Birth at
the Federal University of Pernambuco (Ufpe) Morvan de Mello Moreira states that “in large groups of humans
there is always seasonality. In almost every country there is one month that stands out.” For various reasons:
from the quality of the semen, the rate of ovulation and quality of the zygotes, to environmental issues such as
the effects of the temperature and the intensity of the light, as well as social and cultural factors such as
urbanization, agricultural cycles, calendar of leisure, marriage rate, and frequency of sexual relations.
Psychologist and astrologist Marihita Cocentino says that she is unfamiliar with any indication that there exist
more people born in Pisces and Aries. “The only thing I can think of is that May is the month of brides. You get
married in May and make a baby in June.”
Births in Bahia year by year
March
May