FIG. S1: Historical biome maps across CMIP5 models
Historical biome maps across individual CMIP5 models (years 1980-1999). Biomes are defined in
Section 2 and indicated by the color bar. MIROC-ESM is not shown due to its similarity to MIROCESM-CHEM. Also shown is the multi-model average map of historical biomes (1980-1999) and multimodel map of future biomes (2080-2099).
FIG. S2: Study of similarity across models
A study of similarity between simulations during the historical period (years 1980-2000) for: a) SST
(in ºC), b) surface NO3 (mmol/m3), and c) Integrated production Prod (gC/yr). A frequency
distribution is calculated for each pair of models from pixel-to-pixel differences of the above
variables. Here, we show the absolute mean (x axis) and standard deviation (y axis) of this
distribution. Map1 and Map2 refer to all the possible combinations between two models. The cloud
of points shows the typical uncertainty among models. We only label the combination of models that
are very similar by construction (black cloud), and these lie outside of the main cloud (red cloud). For
nitrate, self-similar models are those with dispersion lower than 1. We did not label them because
they are all clustered close to the origin in panel (b).
FIG. S3: Multi-model averaged maps
Multi-model average maps for historical (years 1980-1999) and climate change signal (difference
between the average for years 2080-2099 and the average for years 1980-1999). Variables shown
are a) salinity (averaged over 16 models), b) iron concentration averaged over the top 100m (12
models), c) phytoplankton biomass averaged over the top 100m (16 models), and d) POC export at
100m (12 models). Crossed masked areas show significant trends at 80% to 90% level, and stripped
masked areas show a 90% or higher significance.
FIG. S4: Productivity across CMIP5 models
Global maps for primary production (integrated to 100m) during the historical period (years 19801999) and changes over 100 years (difference between years 2080-2099 and years 1980-1999) for
16 CMIP5 models. Model MIROC-ESM is not shown due to its similarity to MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Model
CMCC-CESM is shown here but is not used in the paper analysis due to the lack of the ice variable in
the online CMIP5 output.
FIG. S5: Iron across CMIP5 models
Global maps for iron (averaged over 100m) during the historical period (years 1980-1999) and
change over 100 years (difference between years 2080-2099 and years 1980-1999) across CMIP5
models.
FIG. S6: Historical Phytoplankton biomass and POC export across CMIP5 models
Global maps for phytoplankton biomass (averaged over 100m) in top panels and POC export at 100m
in the bottom panels during the historical period (years 1980-1999) across CMIP5 models.