Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG)
DRAFT Meeting Minutes
February 9-10, 2014
1:00 p.m. – Noon MT
Salt Lake City, Utah
1. Welcome
Gary Graham, Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) Chair, called the meeting to order at 1:03
p.m. on Monday, February 9, 2015. A quorum was present for the conducting of business. A list of
attendees is attached as Exhibit A.
Byron Woertz reviewed the WECC Antitrust Policy. Attendees in person and on the telephone were
asked to introduce themselves.
2. Approve Agenda
Gary Graham introduced the proposed meeting agenda. Slight modifications to the agenda were
necessary to accommodate remote meeting participants.
On a motion by Gary Graham, the SPSG unanimously approved the amended agenda.
3. Review October 28-29, 2014 Minutes
Gary Graham introduced the minutes from the October 28-29, 2014 meeting.
On a motion by Carl Zichella, the SPSG unanimously approved the October 28-29, 2014 minutes.
4. Metrics Definition Task Force (MDTF) Input variables for approval
Carl Linvill, MDTF Chair, presented an update on MDTF’s current activities. The SPSG reviewed the
recommended input parameters for scenario-based study cases.
On a motion by Grace Anderson, the SPSG unanimously approved the solar photovoltaic cost
reductions relative to present day capital costs.
On a motion by Pam Eaton, with one vote of no, the SPSG approved the solar thermal cost
reductions relative to present day capital costs.
On a motion by Bryce Freeman, the SPSG unanimously approved the Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle (IGCC) with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) reductions relative to present day
capital costs.
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Further discussion on the topic of wind reduction capital costs was required. On a motion by Grace
Anderson, the variation between 24 and 29 percent cost reduction will be applied to Scenarios 2
and 4, relative to the 2034 Reference Case; TAS will modify the capacity factors in the 2034
Reference Case to demonstrate current technologies using the Duke American Transmission
Company’s (DATC) tool and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) information. This motion
was unanimously approved.
On a motion by Ron Lehr Capital Cost reductions will be applied to Scenarios 1 and 3, consistent
with the 2034 Reference Case. This motion was unanimously approved.
Capital costs on these figures have been improved. Mr. Lehr moved that the SPSG approve capital
cost for wind in Scenarios 1 and 3 to be consistent with the Reference Case. The motion was
unanimously approved.
Henry Tilghman moved the wind capacity factors for Scenarios 2 and 4 be increased by 10 percent
to be consistent with the DATC estimating tool. Grace Anderson proposed an amendment to
include an increase in capacity factors to recognize potential technology breakthroughs without
specifying an amount of the increase. Gary Graham proposed an amendment to apply a 10 percent
capacity factor increase as the best estimate for a potential technology breakthrough. The motion
failed.
Henry Tilghman moved that wind capacity factors be increased by 5 percent for Scenarios 2 and 4
and later withdrew the motion.
On a motion by Grace Anderson, with one abstention, the SPSG approved the geothermal cost
reductions relative to present day costs.
On a motion by Carl Zichella, the eight-hour battery storage capital costs were unanimously
approved.
Further discussion took place regarding high Distributed Generation (DG) implementation in
Scenarios 2 and 4. Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) recommended that DG be
implemented by state. Jim Baak moved that a 20 percent increase in DG by each state be applied to
Scenarios 2 and 4. There was one vote of no and two abstaining votes; however, the motion was
approved.
Carl Linvill moved to adopt the adjustments to the net load growth, incremental electrification, and
incremental energy efficiency (EE) and Demand-Side Management (DSM), a combination of these
elements to be applied to make adjustments relative to the 2034 reference case, as recommended
in the presentation by E3. This motion was unanimously approved.
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Henry Tilghman moved the approval of the renewable goals, as presented on Mr. Linvill’s
presentation, slide 14. This motion was unanimously approved.
Elise Brown moved to approve that presented renewable goal parameters regarding state and
federal RPS be lowered 25 percent, and reduced state RPS by 25 percent to Scenario 3. The motion
was unanimously approved.
Henry Tilghman moved that capital costs for offshore wind energy systems be reduced to
$2,600/kW for Scenarios 2 and 4. The motion unanimously passed.
The presentation is posted to the WECC Website.
5. Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Mr. Graham and Mr. Woertz provided a history of the creation of the Energy-Water-Climate change
scenario, reviewed currently identified issues consisting of temperature change, causality,
reliability risks, and the energy-water nexus. After subsequent group discussion, Elise Brown moved
that an increase of 3 degrees F. in the global average temperature be used as a planning target for
the scenario. There were three votes of no and one abstaining vote; however, the motion was
approved.
Mr. Woertz reviewed the proposed timeline for the final scenario document. Mr. Zichella moved
that the approval of the timeline take place no later than March 6, 2015. Mr. Graham amended the
motion to include a series of informative webinars prior to the March 6, 2015 deadline, with the
final draft of the scenario due on May 5, 2015. The motion was unanimously approved.
The presentation is posted to the WECC Website.
6. Overview of Reliability Planning and Performance Analysis (RPPA)
Mr. Sudduth provided an overview of the WECC RAPA Department and major products. Mr.
Sudduth introduced Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) Associate Engineer, Colby Johnson. The
Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) Department of Energy (DOE) grant has come to
an end. Mr. Sudduth reviewed the accomplishments that were achieved under the grant. Mr.
Sudduth also noted that WECC has submitted its Section 1600 Data Request for Operations Data.
The presentation is posted to the WECC Website.
7. Water Impacts of Extreme Events on the Western Grid
Mr. Woertz reviewed the assessment of tradeoffs between water allocations, transmission needs
and environmental objectives. Nathalie Voisin of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
provided a presentation on PNNL’s work to assess the vulnerabilities of the Western Grid to
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extreme events in the context of the Energy-Water-Climate Change. The group provided input
regarding prioritization of heat wave case studies, identification of critical transmission paths to be
tested with wild fire impacts, coordination with climate changes studies and extreme event case
study, and other case study interests.
This presentation is posted on the WECC Website.
8. Environmental Data Task Force (EDTF)
Carl Zichella, EDTF Chair, reviewed the draft of the EDTF Charter and other ongoing EDTF activities.
On a motion by Carl Zichella, the SPSG unanimously approved the inclusion of ocean and coastal
risk layers into WECC’s preferred Environmental Data Set and will make them available through the
Environmental Data Viewer.
This presentation is posted to the WECC Website.
Chris Clark-Deschene has been working with the EDTF as the tribal representative. Mr. ClarkDeschene recommends that WECC schedule a second Tribal Summit to re-engage tribal
participants.
9. Review of New Action Items
10. Upcoming Meetings
May 5-6, 2015 ..........................................................................................Salt Lake City, Utah
August 11-12, 2015 ..................................................................................Salt Lake City, Utah
November 3-4, 2015 ................................................................................Salt Lake City, Utah
11. Adjourn
Mr. Graham adjourned the meeting at 12:00 p.m. on February 10, 2015 without objection.
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Exhibit A: Attendance List
Members in Attendance
Grace Anderson ............................................................................................ California Energy Commission
Jim Baak .........................................................................................................................Vote Solar Initiative
Elise Brown............................................................ Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and Economy
Bob Burns ................................................................................................. Arizona Corporation Commission
Bob Burner ................................................................................................................................ Duke Energy
Chris Clark-Deschene ..................................................................................... Schaff & Clark-Deschene, LLC
Pam Eaton ................................................................................................................ The Wilderness Society
Bryce Freeman .............................................................................. Wyoming Office of Consumer Advocate
Gary Graham .................................................................................................. Western Resource Advocates
James Gazewood ...................................................................................................... BLM Utah State Office
Fred Heutte ....................................................................................................... Northwest Energy Coalition
Ron Lehr ................................................................................................ American Wind Energy Association
Carl Linvill .......................................................................................................Regulatory Assistance Project
John Rich ........................................................................................................................................ BC Hydro
Henry Tilghman ......................................................................................................... Tilghman & Associates
Carl Zichella ........................................................................................... Natural Resources Defense Council
Members not in Attendance
Scott Coe .................................................................................................... Emerald People’s Utility District
Mike Florio ........................................................................................ California Public Utilities Commission
Jack Haenichen.......................................................................... Arizona Governor’s Office of Energy Policy
Tom Kaiserski .................................................................................................... Montana Governor’s Office
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Lawrence Mansueti............................................................................................ U.S. Department of Energy
John Savage ............................................................................................. Oregon Public Utility Commission
Gregory Smith ............................................................................................................. USDA Forest Services
William VanHouten .......................................................................................... U.S. Department of Defense
Others in Attendance
Jamie Austin .................................................................................................................................. PacifiCorp
Mike Bailey ........................................................................................................................................... WECC
Vinson Banh ................................................................................................................ Alberta Energy Office
Dan Beckstead...................................................................................................................................... WECC
Ben Brownlee ....................................................................................................................................... WECC
Thomas Carr ............................................................................................. Western Interstate Energy Board
Mailee Cook ......................................................................................................................................... WECC
Donald Davies ...................................................................................................................................... WECC
Sarah Delisle ............................................................................................................ Department of Defense
Brendan Denker ................................................................................................................. Salt River Project
Mike Evans ................................................................................................................................. Shell Energy
Gerald Harris ........................................................................................................................... Reos Partners
Jeff Hein ...................................................................................................................................... Xcel Energy
Stan Holland ......................................................................................................................................... WECC
Bill Hosie................................................................................................................................................ DATC
Colby Johnson ...................................................................................................................................... WECC
Michael Kitner-Meyer ......................................................................Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
John Leland ............................................................................................ Northern Tier Transmission Group
Peter Mackin ........................................................................................................ Utility System Efficiencies
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Richard Marrs.......................................................................................................................... Reos Partners
Ian McKay .................................................................................................................................. WECC Board
Tom Miller ................................................................................................................ Pacific Gas and Electric
Daniel Moreno ..........................................................................................................................................ICF
Keegan Moyer ................................................................................................................... Energy Strategies
Armando Perez ......................................................................................................................... WECC Board
Marcelo Poirier ................................................................................. California Public Utilities Commission
Kirha Quick ........................................................................................................................................... WECC
Vijay Satyal ........................................................................................................................................... WECC
Harliv Singh ................................................................................................................................. Xcel Energy
Jan Strack ............................................................................................................... San Diego Gas & Electric
Branden Sudduth ................................................................................................................................. WECC
Stacy Tellinghuisen......................................................................................... Western Resource Advocates
Nathalie Voisin .................................................................................Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Nathan Wagoner .......................................................................................................................................ICF
Jonathan Wallace ........................................................................................................... Old Saw Consulting
Steven Wallace............................................................................................................... Old Saw Consulting
Tony Williardson ........................................................................................... Western States Water Council
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