U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
SOLAR MARKET PATHWAYS PROGRAM
VERMONT SOLAR DEPLOYMENT PLAN
FOCUS AREA BRIEF
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
May 2015
INTRODUCTION
Electric Vehicles. Synergies exist among plug-in vehicle and solar PV consumers, including overlapping
consumer purchase preferences for both technologies, use of solar PV power for vehicle charging, and use
of plug-in vehicles for distributed storage and grid reliability assets to respond to fluctuating renewable
energy production.
EVs in the Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan
Vermont’s transportation sector is currently fueled 95% by petroleum. To transform the transportation
sector, the 2011 Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan (CEP) identified two primary strategies:
1. Reduce Petroleum Consumption (Vol 2, 9.6.2, p. 280)
2. Reduce Energy Use in the Transportation Sector (Vol 2, 9.6.3, p. 284)
Because transportation accounts for the highest share of energy use in Vermont, policies that address this
sector have a proportionately larger impact on the state’s overall energy consumption. Most current
transportation sector consumption is in gasoline and diesel fuels, both petroleum-based sources of energy.
The shift to renewable energy sources for the transportation sector will likely occur at a slower pace than
in other sectors. This is due in part to the limited control the state has over vehicle technology and
regulations. States are preempted by the federal government from setting their own fuel economy
standards, for example. Higher upfront costs for plug-in vehicles and shifting technology are also sources
of hesitation among consumers considering a switch.
In order to make significant progress toward the state’s target of 90% renewable energy by 2050, the
Vermont Agency of Transportation has set a goal that 25% of all vehicles registered in Vermont be
powered by renewable energy sources by 2030. Business-as-usual projections for plug-in electric vehicles
(EVs) are modest. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that the next 20 years will be
different from business as usual. Technological innovation in vehicle engineering, particularly as it relates
to batteries, is occurring at a rapid pace.
The CEP includes an interim 2030 goal to reach a benchmark of 25% of the vehicle fleet powered by
renewable energy. This will require more than 140,000 EVs or other renewably powered vehicles
registered in VT based on the current fleet size. Biofuels already significantly contribute to renewably
powered transportation in Vermont through the US EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) which creates
the requirement for ethanol blends. However, as the charts below indicate, travel powered by electricity is
much more cost effective than gasoline or other alternative fuels. While these savings are decreased by
the higher initial cost of EVs, they can be significant today and will provide additional benefits as the
technology matures.
Figure 1. Alternative Fuel Prices
US DOT Beyond Traffic, 2015
The Vermont Public Service Department’s 2014 Total Energy Study identified technology and policy
pathways to achieve the CEP goal of 90% renewable by 2050 and continued to recognize electric vehicle
technology as a critical strategy to meet the state’s energy goals.
Surveys of current and potential EV owners provide evidence of the strong correlation between EVs and
solar PV consumers. For example, the California EV rebate program has queried over 16,000 rebate
recipients and found nearly 30% already have solar PV or are planning to install it. A total of 63% have
expressed consideration of future PV installation1.
The development of an advanced solar market in Vermont will provide significant opportunities to
increase the number of renewably powered vehicles in the state. The benefits of renewably powered
1
Center for Sustainable Energy (2015). California Air Resources Board Clean Vehicle Rebate Project, EV
Consumer Survey Dashboard. Retrieved 5 May 2015 from http://energycenter.org/clean-vehicle-rebateproject/survey-dashboard
2
transportation include reduced greenhouse gas and other harmful pollutant emissions, reduced cost and
volatility in transportation energy expenditures and support for economic development activities by
reaping fuel expenditure savings to provide capital for investment. Conversely, EVs are capable of
providing grid support services, including demand side management (DSM) through controlled charging
and distributed energy storage using EV batteries – both of which can be used to respond to short term
fluctuations in power generation that may occur with a higher share of solar PV generation.
TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET DESCRIPTION
There are two basic types of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs):


All Electric Vehicles (AEV) – powered solely by electricity with range from 60-100 miles for
vehicles under $40,000. Up to 270 miles for Tesla vehicles which start at $70,000. Currently 25%
of currently registered EVs in Vermont.
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV) – 10-75 miles of electric range on a battery and then the
vehicles switch seamlessly to gasoline for extended range operation. These are 75% of the
currently registered EVs.
EVs travel about 3 miles per kWh of energy, resulting in an annual consumption of about 2 MWh for the
average Vermont Vehicle. Energy is delivered to the vehicles through Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment
(EVSE), commonly referred to as “charging stations”. There are three basic types of EVSE as shown in
the figure below.
Figure 2. EV Charging Levels
Level 1
Level 2
DC Fast Charging
• Uses EVSE provided by
vehicle manufacturers
plugged into standard
120V outlets.
• Charges at approximately
1.5 kW, so this typically
happens overnight.
• Uses dedicated EVSE
hardwired or plugged
into a 208/240V outlet.
• Charging power is 3.3 kW
to 7.2 kW for most EVs.
Tesla’s charge at up to 20
kW. Typically 3-6 hours
for a charge.
• Up to 100 kW for
vehicles equipped with
this capability, usually
limited to All Electric
models.
• Approximately 30
minutes to reach an 80%
state of charge, after
which charging slows
considerably.
Most EV owners charge at home overnight. Several Vermont electric utilities have optional residential
Time of Use (TOU) rate programs which provide lower costs during overnight hours. Workplace
charging is the second most common option when available to drivers and provides a helpful “second
showroom” with the US Dept of Energy estimating employees with access to charging are twenty times
more likely to own an EV. Public charging stations are necessary to increase the confidence of consumers
considering an EV purchase, particularly for all electric vehicles. Vermont currently has 60 public
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charging stations, 13 of which include DC Fast Charging for EVs equipped with this capability. The
number of charging stations has more than doubled over the past 2 years.
Table 1. Vermont Utility Time of Use Rates
Utility2
Residential
Standard
Rate
Customer
Charge
$0.43 / day
(approx.
$12.90/
month)
Standard kWh
Charge
Residential TOU On-Peak
TOU
per kWh
Customer
Charge
$0.147 / kWh
$16.26 /
month
Vermont
Electric
Cooperative
$17.22 /
Month
$17.22 /
Month
Burlington
Electric
Department
$8.21 /
month
$0.087 / kWh
up to 100kWh
$0.176 / kWh
In excess of
100kWh
$0.1088 per
kWh up to
100kWh
$0.148 per kWh
Green
Mountain
Power
$13.86 /
month
$0.257
4 consecutive hours
between 7:00 a.m.
and noon and 3
consecutive hours
between 4:00 and
10:00 p.m.
$0.19789 per kWh
6:00 a.m.-10:00 p.m.
M-F
$0.108 / kWh up to
100 kWh
$0.23 / kWh above
100 kWh
June 1st to September
30th, Mon-Fri, 12:01
P.M. to 6:00 P.M. and
December 1st to
March 31st, Mon-Fri,
6:01 A.M. to 10:00
P.M
TOU Off
Peak
per kWh
$0.114
$0.142
$0.108
EVs are available at approximately 28 dealers across the state out of 112 total new car dealers. There are
no current state incentives for EVs, but there is a federal tax credit up to $7,500 for first 200,000 EVs by
manufacturer. The exact amount varies depending on the size of the battery. Current cumulative sales for
market leaders GM and Nissan are around 70,000 vehicles each, so the incentives are anticipated to
remain for several more years and could be renewed in the future.
2
Other Vermont utilities including municipal utilities offer Time-Of-Use rates.
4
Vermont is one of 10 states participating in the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program which
requires automakers to sell increasing numbers of plug-ins and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles over next 10
years – up to about 15% of sales by
Figure 3 - Vermont Electric Vehicle Registrations
2025.
EVs are registered in over 60%
of Vermont communities and
Figure 1 - Vermont EV Registrations
comprise about 0.1% of the total
Vermont fleet of registered
vehicles. EV sales over the past
year have reached approximately
1% of new light duty vehicle
sales in the state. As the chart to
the right illustrates, significant
growth has occurred over the
past few years with just over 890
plug-in vehicles now registered
in the state as of April 2015. Per
capita rates of EV ownership are
highest in Lamoille County,
indicating plug-in vehicles do
work in rural areas.
Annual increases in new EV registrations are shown in the table below. The slowdown in new
registrations in 2014 was likely due to decreased inventory available at local dealerships and bridging
from early adopter enthusiasm with latent demand to more mainstream consumers. EV market volatility is
anticipated to continue in the near term as new models come into the market and are general economic
conditions impact new vehicle purchases.
Table 2. Annual Vermont EV Sales by Type
Annual EV
Sales
2013
2014
Plug-in
Hybrid
Vehicle
All
Electric
Vehicle
Total
326
204
82
67
408
271
The current estimate of electric usage related to EVs in Vermont is approximately 1,900 MWh annually.
This is approximately 0.03% of Vermont’s retail electric sales, so the impacts of EVs on the grid are
negligible at this point, although in some rare cases upgrades to local distribution networks are required
due to high power draw (20 kW or more) associated with certain vehicles and charging equipment..
While the ongoing growth in EV adoption is encouraging, much more work is needed to meet the state’s
energy transformation goals of achieving 140,000 renewably powered vehicles over the next 15 years –
this will require an average of over 9,000 additional EVs a year.
5
The Drive Electric Vermont program is working on a multitude of fronts to support these goals. The
consumer decision funnel in the figure below illustrates the process of consumer engagement from initial
product awareness, leading to familiarity, consideration, purchase and continuing into loyalty. While
social media and other technological changes now give consumers greater ability to skip these discrete
stages, the funnel still provides a helpful framework for the typical consumer EV purchase process. The
Drive Electric Vermont program seeks to engage with consumers at each stage of this process.
Figure 4. Consumer Decision Funnel
McKinsey, 2009
In 2014, VEIC contracted with a nationally recognized market research specialist - MSR Group - to
perform a statistically valid survey of 495 Vermont consumers regarding their awareness and attitudes
toward electric vehicles in the spring of 2014. The results of the survey have informed priorities for Drive
Electric Vermont. The research found general awareness of electric vehicles was over 90% of the
population surveyed, but many potential consumers need greater familiarity with the options available.
Vehicle cost was the most common barrier to considering EV purchases, followed by concerns over
limited vehicle range and charging infrastructure. Purchase cost was also cited as the most important issue
to motivate consumers to purchase or lease an EV, as shown in the chart below.
Figure 5. Vermonter Motivating Factors to Purchase an Electric Vehicle
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MSR Group, 2014
The above material demonstrates electric vehicles are a clear priority for Vermont to meet our energy and
environmental goals. Ongoing research and Drive Electric Vermont program development has highlighted
a number of critical areas to speed market transformation of EV technology, including increased
consumer familiarity, dealer education to better inform customers considering new vehicle purchases and
consumer incentives to reduce barriers and increase motivation to move forward with an EV lease or
purchase.
MARKET CONDITIONS — OPPORTUNITIES
AND
CHALLENGES
Growth. What is the scope of the growth of this market over the scenario planning horizons? What
would constitute high growth, low growth forecasts?
Business as Usual Scenario
The Vermont ZEV action plan includes detailed information on activities underway in the state of
Vermont to support automakers in complying with ZEV program requirements. The chart below
illustrates the anticipated continued growth in the market, particularly in 2017 and beyond once the
existing travel provision expires which allows manufacturers to meet their requirements by only selling
EVs in California. The ZEV program requirements have a variety of credits for different vehicle
technologies, so actual experience of sales could differ from the scenario presented below. A relatively
conservative estimate under existing policies would be approximately 10,000 EVs in Vermont by 2023,
or nearing about 2% of the fleet of registered vehicles.
Figure 6. Vermont ZEV Program Compliance Scenario3
3
From the Vermont ZEV Action Plan - http://www.anr.state.vt.us/anr/climatechange/ZeroEmissionVehicles.html
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NESCAUM, 2014
90by50 and Solar Development Pathways Scenario
As stated above, the Vermont Comprehensive Energy plan includes goals for 25% of vehicles to be
powered by renewable energy in 2030 and 90% by 2050. These values translate to approximately 143,000
EVs in 2030 and 515,000 EVs by 2050. Achieving this rate of growth will depend on vehicle availability
at competitive pricing and sustained programs to transform the new and used vehicle markets. VEIC is
investigating various growth curves considering current adoption rates and long term prospects [TBD].
Technical Advances.
Vehicle advancements bringing additional range at same / reduced cost
MARKET CONDITIONS — CHALLENGES
Barriers. What are the barriers to this growth? (for example, existing business or system infrastructure,
market awareness, financing…)
While EV sales in Vermont have grown 10 fold in the last three years, they still make up a very small
segment of the automobile market. Plug in vehicles still represent less than 1% of new vehicle sales in
Vermont which, when aligned with Rogers innovation adoption bell curve, assigns innovator status to
plug in EV purchasers and leasors. Sales of hybrid vehicles (the non-plug-in variety) has pregressed
along this continuum to the level where purchasers fall into the early adopter category.
8
Price is still a major barrier to plug in EV sales. As is evident in the chart of motivating factors [Figure
5] 91 percent of Vermonters answering the survey indicated that the purchase price of a vehicle is
somewhat or very important. Even with incentives, EVs typically cost more up front than conventional
vehicles. While affordable lease options are becoming more common, these are not always welladvertised and cost is still perceived to be a major barrier.
As a rural, mountainous, northern state, Vermont is known for its winter driving conditions. Compared to
the national average, Vermont has over 3 times the all-wheel drive auto inventory per capita of the
national average (https://www.cars.com/articles/2014/02/winter-weather-sends-all-wheel-drive-inventoryup-20-percent/) http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sales-surge-for-all-wheel-drive-vehicles246882411.html While there are limited hybrid AWD vehicles currently on the market, there is currently
only one commercially available plug-in electric AWD vehicle available in VT (it retails at $75,000)4.
Another major barrier to EV adoption in Vermont is battery range. Because of Vermont’s low
population density, commutes tend to be longer and development less concentrated. Limited battery
range is definitely an issue. Also current EV technology performs at its highest efficiency in stop and go
traffic (with regenerative braking) and on flat terrain. Vermont has an abundance of neither of these.
Exacerbating the barrier of limited battery range is the lack of a comprehensive EV charging network.
Vermont currently has (?) public EV charging stations. Growing this network will definitely facilitate EV
adoption in Vermont.
Finally, auto dealer engagement is a powerful tool in selling electric vehicles. Many Vermont dealers
do not offer electric vehicles at all. The dealers that do frequently are not actively promoting the vehicles.
Dealer staff are often not well informed about the products and will sometimes actively steer people away
from electric vehicle options.
4
TESLA Model S (now available) and Model X (available in 2016) Toyota RAV4 EV has been discontinued.
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Overcoming barriers. How can those barriers be overcome? Identify strategies that can be used to help
reduce barriers.
As with any new technology incentives and disincentives are powerful policy tools. Incentives include
cash incentives, dealer incentives, and tax incentives. Several states offer EV incentives including
California, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Utah and (most recently) Texas. Some states
offer registration fee exemptions or travel incentives in the form of free tolls or high occupancy vehicle
(HOV) lane access. Incentives could also be offered in the electric sector. Electric rate structures for EV
charging can provide significant benefits to Vermont’s electric grid by encouraging EV owners to charge
at night during off-peak hours. Distribution Utilities can charge rates that make EV charging extremely
cost-effective for EV owners. ConEdison in New York offers on-peak delivery rates of 19.4 cents/kWh
and off peak rates of 1.36 cents/kWh5.
On the other side of the equation, disincentives can also be a powerful tool. An increase in the State gas
tax or the implementation of a Carbon Tax in Vermont would provide an economic disincentive to drive
vehicles that consume fossil fuels and steer drivers toward EVs.
Aside from economic incentives and disincentives, other ways to overcome market barriers to EVs
include the broader introduction of All Wheel Drive EVs into the Vermont marketplace, particularly at a
price point that can be combined with economic incentives to be comparable to the purchase price of a
modest conventional vehicle.
Charging infrastructure development is one way in which Vermont regulators can promote the adoption
of electric vehicles. Allowing Distribution Utilities to rate base spending on electric vehicle charging
stations would incentivize Vermont’s DU’s to install charging stations and receive a guaranteed rate of
5
A customer/basic-service charge of $19.87 per month applies, along with any applicable delivery charges and
adjustments as specified in general rule 26 of the Con Edison electric
tariff. http://www.coned.com/electricvehicles/rates.asp
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return while building their sales base. Alternately, public-private partnerships could promote the retail
sale of electricity in places like conventional gas stations through DC fast charging or at highway rest
areas to promote tourism and long-distance travel by EV owners.
To address the lack of dealer initiative related to EV sales, additional sales commissions orspiffs could be
offered for dealer sales staff. Educational outreach programs directed at dealers and sales staff could
build greater familiarity with the vehicles and their benefits.
Innovative marketing strategies such as packaging together an electric vehicle with rooftop solar PV and
an attractive financing option may potentially promote the vehicle to building technology in the future.
Electric vehicle sales continue to grow as EVs are seen as a viable alternative to fossil fuel consumption
through conventional vehicles. As the EV markets continue to grow, economies of scale will contribute
to less expensive batteries and better technology options. This combination of declining costs and
maturing technologies will be instrumental in overcoming market barriers.
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MARKET CONDITIONS — COSTS
Costs. What cost projections are available? What are plausible high- and low-cost projections? Are cost
projections highly dependent on volume ? Are there identifiable market share or scale thresholds for cost
reductions?
Battery cost predictions
National Academy of Science report on long term cost forecast
Reducing Costs. What strategies have been identified to reduce costs? What strategies have been
identified to reduce barriers to market growth?
Volume of sales
Manufacturing improvements to reduce most costly materials
Recycling programs
Time of Use / Demand management programs for EV charging (some could provide payments back to
consumer)
SCENARIO INPUTS
Inputs for Scenario Analyses. Using the Current Accounts / Historic Data as starting points, what are
the plausible, initial inputs for the Reference (business as usual), Long-Range Target (assume 2050 as the
end point), and Solar Development Pathways α (the alpha scenario)? These will be starting points for
review and possible revision.
Table 1.
Scenario data structure table for electric vehicles
Current Account
/ Historic Data
Reference
(Business as
Usual)
Long-range
Target
(LRT)
SDPα
Applicable market
segments
Number of units
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
891
10,000 by 2023
Same as LRT
Total annual energy
consumption
Type of growth
Changes in
performance
characteristics
1,900 MWh
TBD
23,000 by 2023
143,000 by 2030
515,000 by 2050
TBD
Logistic
Logistic
NA
Exponential
2% increase in range
annually until
vehicles reach 200
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TBD
Current Account
/ Historic Data
Costs
Note that costs will
be addressed in a
subsequent draft.
However,
documenting and
collecting cost data
and references as
appropriate are
recommended.
Reference
(Business as
Usual)
Long-range
Target
(LRT)
SDPα
miles of range
$35,000 for 200 mile
range vehicle in
2020
$25,000 for 200 mile
range vehicle in
2020
$25,000 for 200 mile
range vehicle in
2020
UNMET NEEDS
More information needed. Please describe areas for more research or collaboration with other
jurisdictions or experts.

Potential for Grid Interactive Vehicle technology to provide income back to EV owners and
increase their payback period.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
APPENDIX FOR REFERENCE (TO FOCUS AREA BRIEF AUTHORS)
The following paragraphs are general statements about the other focus areas, for your information and
reference, as needed.
Heat Pumps. Solar provides one of the non-carbon electric sources capable of fuel switching for
space heating. Control of heat pumps (cooling and heating) provides potential for active load management
that can be matched with intermittent variable output of PV systems.
Energy Storage. Storage enables higher saturation of intermittent renewables such as solar and
wind, on the grid. Storage can improve resiliency and operational efficiency of the grid (providing
required ancillary services). With advanced inverters, storage provides potential for systems to provide
back-up power when the grid is down. Storage supplements the potential value proposition from highsaturation solar.
High-Performance Modular Homes. High-saturation solar can reduce operating expenses for
these homes when it is combined with other efficiency and control strategies. Solar energy, either site
based or at the community level, can be part of an affordable solution that reduces overall energy burdens
and provides higher-quality construction and living environments.
Incentives. Tax credits and other direct incentives have been essential to the growth of solar PV
markets. With declining costs, and the possibility that future federal tax credits will decline, it is essential
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to examine if incentives are still required to promote market development. As the market continues to
grow, it is also important to consider if particular market segments (for example, low-income or lowwealth) require ongoing incentive support. Incentives can also affect the type of system (rooftop versus
ground mounted) and the technical operations (for example, western versus southern exposure) of systems
that are deployed.
Net metering. Net metering is one of the incentives that has contributed to significant market
growth. Looking forward, an advanced solar market might require modifications and / or alternatives to
net metering. This focus area will receive a more in-depth treatment than the other focus areas.
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