Flooding Case Studies
CUMBRIA, UK 2009
PAKISTAN 2010
Background Information
Scale of the floods
November
July/August
The flooding
lasted just
over one
week
The flooding
lasted about
3 weeks.
At one point
~1/5 of
Pakistan’s
total land
area was
submerged
including
69,000km2
of fertile crop
land.
Many areas
within
Cumbria were
flooded. The
total land area
of Cumbria is
about
6000km2
GNP per Capita
$37,360 (UK)
$2,710
Causes of the floods
Physical
Heaviest rainfall recorded in England: 314mm in 24
hours
Prolonged rainfall: 400mm in 72 hours
The ground was already saturated from weeks of
heavy rain before this event.
(This would have reduced infiltration and increased
overland flow. The lag time between rain falling and
water reaching the river would have been greatly
reduced).
Cockermouth (an area that experienced very severe
flooding) is located at the confluence of 2 rivers where
a tributary joins the river Derwent.
Cockermouth is built on the floodplain of the river
Derwent (floodplains are meant for flooding!)
There is a pronounced meander just downstream of
the confluence which would have decreased the
rivers ability to move the water away quickly.
Prolonged and heavy rainfall, e.g. 274mm fell in 24
hours in Peshawar on July 29th 2010. More than half
the normal monsoon rains fell in only a week instead
of 3 months.
Unusual conditions in the polar jet stream (a fast
moving air current that exists north of Pakistan) are
though to have brought heavy rainfall, which
combined with the summer monsoon rains.
Scientist Mike Lockwood published a study showing
that the unusual behaviour of the jet stream may have
been caused by the sun.
Flooding is normal here: the river Indus floods almost
annually (although not usually to this extent)
The river Indus carries a lot of sediment and mud
from the Himalayas, which silt up the channel and
make it more prone to flooding.
Human
Cockermouth is built on the floodplain very close to
the river Derwent. Urbanisation increases the risk of
flooding, especially when it is located on the
floodplain (see p.27 textbook).
There was a bridge across the river at Gote Road,
which could have had a damming effect – increasing
friction and reducing the river’s efficiency at this
point. Debris transported in the flood may also have
been caught on the bridge and made the problem
worse.
Some people claimed that poor river management of
the whole area (e.g. allowing too much silt to build
up and too much vegetation to grow on the banks
and increase friction) made the floods worse.
For example, the river at the Gote Road area of
Cockermouth has not been dredged regularly since
the 1960s allowing silt to build up and narrow the
river channel (i.e. make it smaller). This would have
reduced the discharge that the river could cope with
without overflowing.
However, the Environment Agency claims that
dredging the rivers Cocker and Derwent would not
have reduced the flooding.
Many people live close to rivers to gain access to water
and fertile alluvial soils to help grow their crops.
Two-thirds of people in Pakistan depend on farming for
their income, leaving them vulnerable to floods that
result in a loss of livelihoods as well as their homes.
Levees have been built along rivers to reduce the risk
of flooding. However, many of them were breached by
the floodwaters and exacerbated the problem as huge
amounts of water were suddenly released.
The flooded area was so large that it was able to
spread into the densely-populated and poverty stricken
urban areas in the south of Pakistan.
In some places such as the Swat Valley, infrastructure
had previously been weakened by the2005 earthquake
and had not yet been repaired.
The
country’s
poor infrastructure prevented
rescue teams getting to some of those who most
needed help and emergency aid.
Deforestation in the Himalayas has increased flood risk
in Pakistan as, without trees covering the land, more
water and sediment will reach the river and more
quickly.
Some people think that climate change could have
contributed to the floods as global warming is
thought to increase the frequency of extreme
weather events.
Climate change/global warming may have
strengthened the monsoon rains that contributed to the
flooding.
Impacts of the floods
Red = Social; Blue = Economic
Short Term
More than 500 people had to spend the night with
relatives and friends or in emergency shelters after
the floods.
Up to 20 million people were thought to have been
injured or made homeless by the floods.
1 person (a police officer) was swept away and killed
when a bridge collapsed.
Death toll was estimated to have reached 2000
The WHO estimated that up to10 million people had
to drink unsafe water following the flood.
20 road bridges (and over 200 footbridges) were
destroyed and once-short commutes now involve
lengthy detours.
100s of bridges and 200 health facilities were
damaged or destroyed greatly reducing the available
health care for millions of survivors in filthy conditions.
Five secondary schools and 13 primary schools in the
county were shut, with many homes and businesses
still cut off.
Damage to 11,000 schools has interrupted the
education of an entire generation of children
(this is also long term)
Long Term
Damage to homes, businesses and
infrastructure caused by the floods resulted in a
£276m bill.
Total economic damage ~ £10 billion (10% of GDP)
Damage to infrastructure alone (roads, power plants,
telecommunications, dams and irrigation systems, schools
and health clinics) amounts to around £7bn.
110 farms were severely affected. Buildings,
feed stock and closed roads as well as deposits
of gravel and boulders on their fields seriously
affected the farming community. One farmer
was forced to sell his entre flock of sheep as he
no longer had facilities for them.
A year on, Cumbria County Council said about
150 flooded households had still not returned to
their properties. 198 people in the affected
areas sought psychological help.
Many bridges have had to be re-built after
collapsing from the floods. One year on 3 out of
20 bridges have not yet been re-built.
Much of the cash has been borne by the
insurance industry (there were claims of £100m
by late November 2009) and the taxpayer
through support and grants from local and
central government
The farming sector, which is central to the country’s
economy, was badly hit. Many cotton farmers had their
crops destroyed (standing water suffocates roots systems
and kills plants). Prior to flooding, Pakistan was the world’s
fourth largest producer of cotton.
80% of fields were left waterlogged in some areas,
preventing farmers from sowing new seeds. In addition 1.2
million livestock animals and 6 million poultry were lost.
The disaster affected more people than those hit by the
2004 Asian tsunami and the 2010 earthquake in Haiti
combined. In the worst affected areas, entire villages were
washed away without warning by sheets of floodwater.
Six months later hundreds of thousands of homeless
survivors are weathering the winter without any kind of
emergency shelter, largely due to a shortage of funds for
the humanitarian response, international aid agencies say.
Many people live below the poverty line of US$1.25 a day.
Prior to the floods, 33 per cent of Pakistanis lived below the
poverty line (that figure has now risen to 40 per cent).
The flooding affected many of Cumbria’s
historical attractions. Tourism suffered a
"devastating" £15m hit with £2.5m lost on
cancelled bookings alone.
The lack of access to the flood survivors left hundreds in
need of clean water supplies and food - and at risk from
outbreaks of waterborne illnesses, particularly diarrhoea,
dehydration and cholera.
Loss of transport infrastructure affected retail
and other businesses in the area.
There were also increases in malaria, rates of malnutrition
due to food scarcity and respiratory infections due to people
living in tents in cold weather.
Responses
Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged £1 million
worth of funding to assist the clean-up process and
£5.4m to repair roads.
The Army were called in to erect a newly-built bridge
in order to make sure the town of Workington wasn’t
cut off after the main bridge had collapsed. A
temporary railway station was also built in
Workington.
> 50 different organisations and agencies were
involved during and after the floods including:
The Environment Agency issued flood warnings &
provided boats and staff to assist with rescues.
Cumbria Fire & Rescue Service helped rescue,
evacuate and support members of the community.
Cumbria County Council, Red Cross, NHS
Cumbria.
1 year later Cumbria has been largely successful in
recovering from the floods thanks to the combined
efforts of the public and private sectors, voluntary
organisations and communities themselves.
Emergency shelter was distributed to some 900 000
households. American army helicopters formed an
essential part of the relief effort in remote areas.
Assistance was provided to help farmers recover e.g.
seeds and fertilizers. Families returning to their
homes were given $230 cash and food packages for
one month.
6 months later donors have contributed just over 56
percent of the $1.96 billion requested by the
Pakistani government. Pakistan was not helped by a
global phenomenon of “donor fatigue” that aid
agencies identified. Charities were surprised by the
slow international response.
The flood victims looked to their government for aid
but this was slow in coming, revealing a low capacity
to cope for the country as a whole.
President Zardari was criticized for his slow response.
Many felt the Pakistani Army was slow to rebuild
bridges, deliver aid or set up relief camps.
(Note – Cumbria was responded to nationally while
Pakistan requested international help too)