1 Auxiliary Material 2 Rapid dynamic activation of a marine-based Arctic ice cap 3 Malcolm McMillan1*, Andrew Shepherd, Noel Gourmelen, Amaury Dehecq, Amber Leeson, 4 Andrew Ridout, Thomas Flament, Anna Hogg, Lin Gilbert, Toby Benham, Michiel van den Broeke, 5 Julian A. Dowdeswell, Xavier Fettweis, Brice Noël and Tazio Strozzi. 6 1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, 7 LS2 9JT, UK 8 *Corresponding author: m.mcmillan@leeds.ac.uk 9 10 11 1. Altimetry methods for estimating surface elevation change 12 1.1 ICESat 13 ICESat data from release 633, distributed by the National Snow and Ice Data Center 14 (www.nsidc.org) and spanning the period 2003-2009, were processed along-track [Smith et al., 15 2009] to determine linear rates of elevation change. Data were selected from the GLAH12 v33 16 data product, with all records from the poor quality campaign 2C removed. Measurements 17 without valid saturation corrections were excluded, as were data flagged as not for use in 18 elevation studies. The product elevation values were already corrected for all instrumental and 19 atmospheric effects except for two, which were applied at this stage. These were the campaign 20 bias, which was corrected using published values [Borsa et al., 2013], and the saturation, for 21 which we applied the correction supplied with the product where appropriate. An accuracy of ± 22 0.15m was assumed [Shuman et al., 2006]. 23 ICESat records from all campaigns were grouped within 700 m along-track segments, with each 24 segment overlapping by 200 m and of sufficient width to encompass the across-track separation 25 of repeated campaigns. For the reliable retrieval of model parameters, the data within each 26 segment must be distributed in space and time. To remove instances where this may not be the 27 case, we only processed segments that contained at least 3 single tracks, each consisting of at 28 least 3 measurements, and collectively covering at least 3 years. For each segment we then 29 iteratively solved for the spatial and temporal fluctuations in elevation, at each step removing 30 records which deviated by more than 5 m from the model solution. 31 32 1.2 Envisat 33 Envisat elevations from product version 2.1 were processed along-track with the algorithm 34 presented in Flament and Rémy [2012]. Elevation trends are only available in the upper 35 catchment because, on tracks coming from the sea, the on-board tracker kept the lock on the 36 brighter sea surface up to 20 km inland, thus not collecting any ice surface data closer to the 37 coast. After processing, Envisat elevation trend estimates were relocated using the Point Of 38 Closest Approach (POCA) method. We used a digital elevation model [Moholdt and Kääb, 2010] 39 to locate the POCA and we limited the maximum displacement allowed for a given point to 6.3 40 km, the radius of the Envisat radar altimeter microwave beam. After relocation, the 41 measurements were gridded on a 50 m grid using weighted local averaging with a radius of 10 42 km and weight defined by a squared cosine decreasing from 1 to 0 over the 10 km. 43 44 1.3 CryoSat 45 Between July 2010 and April 2014, CryoSat acquired a total of 125,000 interferometric mode 46 elevation measurements over Austfonna. To estimate rates of surface elevation change, we used 47 an along-track method [McMillan et al., 2014], which has been designed to utilise the long 369- 48 day orbit repeat cycle of the satellite. Elevation records were grouped within either 2 km or 5 km 49 square regions and within each region we solved, simultaneously, for spatial and temporal 50 fluctuations in elevation. We modelled elevation ( z ) as a bilinear function of surface terrain ( 51 x, y ) and a linear function of time ( t ) within each region (equation 1). z x, y, t z a0 x a1 y a2 t (1) 52 The larger (5 km) grid cell size was used when the full CryoSat record was split in to 2 separate 53 time periods (2010-2012, 2012-2014), to increase data availability within each cell to constrain 54 the model fit. As part of the processing, a correction was applied to account for temporal 55 fluctuations in backscatter that cause spurious fluctuations in range [Davis and Ferguson, 2004; 56 Khvorostovsky, 2012; Wingham et al., 1998]. To suit the scale of Austfonna, we adapted our 57 previous method, which had been designed for application to the Antarctic Ice Sheet [McMillan 58 et al., 2014], in two ways. Firstly, we modelled topography as a bilinear and not a quadratic 59 surface. Secondly we did not solve for a surface anisotropy parameter [Armitage et al., 2013; 60 McMillan et al., 2014], because Austfonna is located further from the latitudinal limit of the 61 satellite, in comparison to the near Pole regions of Antarctica where this effect is most 62 pronounced. These modifications led to a reduction in the number of parameters solved for in the 63 model, and allowed us to group data within smaller (2 km square) regions, which are more 64 appropriate given the size (8000 km2) of the ice cap. 65 As part of the processing chain, several data editing steps were untaken. Firstly, we removed 66 CryoSat records where the interferometer failed to compute an across track location, or where the 67 deviation from a pre-existing digital elevation model [Moholdt and Kääb, 2012] was more than 68 100 m. These criteria were applied in order to prevent poor quality measurements from entering 69 the model fit. The latter threshold was chosen to be relatively large in order to avoid removing 70 valid data, given that high thinning rates of up to 30 m/yr were observed. Secondly, during the 71 elevation rate calculation outlying data were culled iteratively, using a 3-sigma clip, so as to 72 minimise their impact on each solution. Finally, following the model fit, grid cells with poorly 73 constrained model solutions were rejected based upon model residuals and parameter thresholds. 74 To compute rates of ice volume change across basin 3 from CryoSat-2, we integrated all 75 estimates of elevation change within the geographical region of interest, which was defined using 76 data from an airborne topographic survey [Dowdeswell et al., 1986]. For the <5% of the region 77 that remained unsurveyed, we assumed a basin-averaged elevation rate. Volume rates were 78 converted to an estimate of mass imbalance by assuming an ice density of 917 kg m-3. 1-sigma 79 elevation rate uncertainties were computed from each model fit. These uncertainties depend upon 80 the distribution of elevation measurements accumulated within each grid cell, and provide a 81 measure of the extent to which our prescribed model of linear elevation change through time fits 82 these observations. This statistical measure does not formally account for all sources of 83 uncertainty, but will include factors such as radar speckle, some errors in satellite location, 84 retracker imprecision and unmodelled atmospheric attenuation [Wingham et al., 1998]. Volume 85 rate uncertainties were calculated by summing elevation rate uncertainties, because we assume 86 that errors may be correlated at the scale of ice cap basins, and then converted to mass using an 87 ice density of 917 kg m-3. 88 2. Velocity data and methods for estimating ice flow 89 Ice velocity was calculated from measurements made by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) 90 satellite sensors. Displacement fields were calculated using the techniques of Synthetic Aperture 91 Radar Interferometry (InSAR) when the time span between successive acquisitions was 92 sufficiently short to preserve interferometric coherence [e.g. Goldstein et al., 1993], and feature 93 tracking (FT) otherwise [e.g. Strozzi et al., 2002; Paul et al., 2013]. Table S1 summarises the data 94 and techniques used. Prior to calculating displacement fields, SAR data were co-registered by 95 masking the area of high displacement in basin 3. Displacement fields from InSAR or FT were 96 then geocoded using a reference Digital Elevation Model [Moholdt and Kääb, 2012]. The value 97 of the FT correlation window and the sampling step used for each dataset is summarized in Table 98 S1. 99 100 Table S1: List of data, dates and techniques used to map ice surface displacement. Satellite Date Technique Correlation Sampling step window size ERS1 12/1995 - 01/1996 InSAR - - ALOS 01/02/2008 -18/03/2008 FT ~ 1000x600m ~ 100 m ERS2 07/04/2011 -10/04/2011 FT ~ 1300x1000m ~ 200 m TerraSAR-X 19/04/2012-30/04/2012, FT 256x256m 8m FT 1280x1280m 100m 08/02/2014-19/02/2014 Sentinel1aTerraSAR-X 101 102 19/02/2014-22/04/2014 103 3. Supporting datasets 104 We used several additional satellite and model datasets to supplement the ice thinning and 105 velocity measurements. Calving front locations were manually delineated from geolocated ERS, 106 TSX and S-1a SAR images, on an annual (1991-2010) or biannual (2011-2014) basis, subject to 107 data availability, and used to chart ice terminus migration over this period. Daily maps of sea ice 108 extent were computed between 1992 and 2013 using sea ice concentration (SIC) data provided by 109 the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (www.nsidc.org) on a 25 by 25 km grid, where SIC was 110 defined as the fraction of ocean area within each grid cell covered by sea ice. Annual surface 111 mass balance and runoff estimates were compiled from daily MAR [Fettweis et al., 2013] and 112 RACMO2 [van Angelen et al., 2013] simulations run on regular 10 km x 10 km and 11 km x 11 113 km grids, respectively, and forced by Era-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1980-2013. 114 4. Calving front location 115 The migration of the calving front location at basin 3 was mapped between 1981 and 2014 using 116 satellite optical and SAR imagery (Figure S1). Figure S1. Calving front location of basin 3 between 1981 and 2014 overlaid on a SAR backscatter intensity image from April 2014. 117 5. Mass change from terminus advance 118 To estimate the glacier mass retained due to terminus advance between 2010 and 2014, we 119 combined area changes derived from calving front location maps (Figure S1), together with 120 estimates of ice thickness from airborne radio echo sounding data [Dowdeswell et al., 1986]. 121 Specifically, we estimated ice thicknesses at the terminus in 1983, using all radio echo sounding 122 data within 1 km of the calving front. We then adjusted these measurements to account for 123 subsequent ice thinning using a comparison of near terminus ICESat and radio echo sounding 124 data to estimate 1983-2003 surface elevation change, and our satellite derived rates of elevation 125 change thereafter. The mean and standard deviation of these derived thickness estimates was 88 126 m and 22 m, respectively, and we took these as estimates of the mean thickness and associated 127 uncertainty of the advancing ice tongue. This approach uses the spatial variability in ice thickness 128 as a measure of the true uncertainty, given the lack of spatially and temporally extensive 129 measurements of ice surface and bed along the calving front. 130 To compute area changes in ice extent caused by terminus migration we used the calving front 131 location maps described in Section 3. For our estimate of 2010-2014 mass change we averaged 132 the area changes apparent in the two closest pairs, that of 2007-2014 and 2011-2014, taking the 133 uncertainty to be the standard deviation of these two estimates. We then computed the volume 134 change associated with terminus migration from our estimates of mean ice thickness and area 135 change, and converted these to ice mass by assuming a density of ice. Using this approach we 136 estimate that between 2010 and 2014 ice front advance retained 3.7 ± 1.1 Gt of ice mass within 137 the glacier system. 138 6. Modelling terminus geometry 139 The calving front geometry in 2012 was modelled at two locations which had experienced 140 sustained ice thinning and acceleration in previous years, and more specifically along profiles 141 where airborne radio sounding data had provided detailed surveys of the ice bed elevation (Figure 142 S2). Our approach used rates of surface elevation change derived from altimetry to update the 143 elevation recorded by the airborne survey in 1983. For the period 2003-2009, thinning rates were 144 not sampled by ICESat acquisitions directly at the calving front of these two flow units. We 145 therefore used estimates of surface elevation change located several kilometres upstream of the 146 terminus, where the ICESat tracks crossed these flow units, based on an assumption that 147 measurements at these upstream locations would be representative, as a minimum bound, of 148 thinning at the calving front. We did not use ICESat elevation measurements that crossed the ice 149 front because there are only two locations where this occurs and neither track intersects the centre 150 of the flow units where ice acceleration and thinning were most pronounced (Figure S2). As a 151 result, we believe that they are unlikely to be representative of the significant, but localised, 152 changes occurring at the terminus in these regions. To estimate ice surface elevation change at 153 the terminus between 1983 and 2003, prior to ICESat operation, we compared near terminus 154 radio echo sounding and ICESat elevation measurements that were co-located within 50 m 155 (Figure S4). 156 Figure S2. Coverage of data across basin 3 that was used for estimation of terminus geometry evolution. The colour scale indicates ice flow velocity (m/yr) mapped by ALOS in 2008. The pink lines mark ICESat ground tracks acquired between 2003 and 2009, the blue lines locate airborne radio echo sounding lines flown in 1983 and the black dots mark basin boundaries. N, N’ and S, S’ mark the radio echo sounding flight lines along which the 2012 terminus geometry was estimated. I, I’ identifies the repeated ICESat reference track shown in Figure S3. 157 Figure S3. Repeated ICESat measurements of ice surface elevation along the transverse profile I, I’ shown in Figure S2, as acquired over the full period of satellite operation from 2003–2009. Ice flow is broadly orientated out of the page, towards the reader. Surface lowering in excess of 25 meters is apparent over the period 2005-2009 at the location of the southern radio echo sounding transect, at approximately -1043 km Northing, where ice acceleration was also observed. Across the northerly flow unit which also underwent acceleration during this period, northwards from around -1035 km Northing, more moderate thinning is evident. In contrast, across the central part of the basin, where velocities remained more stable, there is no evidence of surface elevation change during this period. 158 Figure S4. Ice surface elevation difference (m) between co-located airborne radio echo sounding (RES) data acquired in in 1983 (black lines) and ICESat data acquired in 2003 (turquoise tracks). The pink dots mark basin boundaries. RES elevation measurements acquired at higher elevation inland regions may be affected by pressure anomalies across the ice cap [Moholdt et al., 2010] and are not used in this study. 159 160 161 References 162 Armitage, T. W. K., Wingham, D. J. and Ridout, A. L. Meteorological Origin of the Static Crossover 163 Pattern Present in Low-Resolution-Mode CryoSat-2 Data Over Central Antarctica, IEEE Geosci. and 164 Remote Sens. 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