UNC-Wilmington Department of Economics and Finance ECN 377 Dr. Chris Dumas Homework 8 Solutions Multiple Choice 1) b, Chi-square test 2) b, Chi-square test 3) d, F-test Problem Section 4) In investment analysis, the variance in the return on an investment is a critical piece of information. Suppose that the variance in the return on investment A has been 2.34 in the past, but suppose a recent event in the market may have affected the return on investment A. Based on a sample size of 41 randomly sampled observations on this investment, the sample variance in its return now appears to be 2.39. Use the appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the variance of the return for investment A. Assume a Confidence Level of 95%. SHOW YOUR WORK, including the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis that you are testing! σ2past = 2.34 (given value) n = 41 s2 = 2.39 H0: σ2now = (σ2past = 2.34) H1: σ2now > (σ2past = 2.34) ===> one-sided test 𝑠2 2 𝜒𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 = (𝑛 − 1) ∙ 𝜎2 = (41 – 1)*(2.39/2.34) = 40.85 d.f. = n – 1 = 40 Confidence Level of 95% ==> α = 0.05 2 2 find χ critical from the χ -table based on d.f. = 40 and the Significance Level α = 0.05 χ2critical = 55.76 χ 2test < χ2critical ===> DO NOT Reject H0 Conclude: There has NOT been a significant increase in the variance. 5) Suppose you also have a sample of 21 randomly sampled observations on investment B, and the sample variance in its return is currently 3.78 . Based on your results from the problem above, conduct the appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether the variance in investment B is currently significantly larger than the variance in investment A. Assume a Confidence Level of 95%. SHOW YOUR WORK, including the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis that you are testing! σ2A = population A variance (unknown) nA = 41 s2A = 2.39 σ2B = population B variance (unknown) nB = 21 s2B = 3.78 H0: σ2B = σ2A H1: σ2B > σ2A===> one-sided 𝑠2 𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 = 𝑠𝐵2 = 3.78/2.39 = 1.58 𝐴 d.f.numerator = 21 – 1= 20 and d.f.denominator = 41 – 1=40 Confidence Level of 95% ==> α = 0.05 find Fcritical from the F-table based on d.f.numerator, d.f.denominator, and the Significance Level “α” Fcritical = 1.84 If Ftest < Fcritical ===> DO NOT Reject H0. Conclude: The variance of investment B is NOT significantly larger than the variance of investment A. 1 UNC-Wilmington Department of Economics and Finance ECN 377 Dr. Chris Dumas 6) Suppose your consulting firm is hired to determine whether there is more income inequality in the southern United States relative to the northern United States. To assess this, you collect data on mean household income for a random sample of 260 counties in the northern United States and a random sample of 140 counties in the southern U.S. The sample variance in mean household income for the northern counties is 1520, and the sample variance for the southern states is 2467. Use the appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether there is a statistically significant difference in the variance of household income between northern and southern states. Assume a Confidence Level of 95%. SHOW YOUR WORK, including the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis that you are testing! σ2N = North population variance (unknown) nN = 260 s2N = 1520 σ2S = South population variance (unknown) nS = 140 s2S = 2467 H0: σ2S = σ2N H1: σ2S > σ2N ===> one-sided 𝑠2 𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 = 𝑠𝑆2 = 2467/1520 = 1.62 𝑁 d.f.numerator = 140 – 1= 139 and d.f.denominator = 260 – 1 = 259 Confidence Level of 95% ==> α = 0.05 find Fcritical from the F-table based on d.f.numerator, d.f.denominator, and the Significance Level “α” Fcritical = 1.39 If Ftest > Fcritical ===> Reject H0. Conclude: The variance of household income in Southern states is significantly larger than the variance of household income in Northern states. 7) You work for a large auto company that sells autos in Europe and China. Your boss wants to know whether auto prices are more variable in Chinese cities relative to European cities. You have good data on your auto sales in European cities, and you know that the variance in auto prices in those cities is 4500. Your data from China is not as good. You have data on auto prices in a sample of 13 Chinese cities. In these cities, the sample variance of auto prices is 6300. Use the appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether the variance in auto prices in Chinese cities is significantly larger than the variance in European cities. Assume a Confidence Level of 95%. SHOW YOUR WORK, including the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis that you are testing! σ2Europe = 4500 (given value) NChina = 13 s2China = 6300 H0: σ2China = (σ2Europe = 4500) H1: σ2China > (σ2 Europe = 4500) ===> one-sided test 𝑠2 2 𝜒𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 = (𝑛 − 1) ∙ 𝜎2 = (13 – 1)*(6300/4500) = 16.8 d.f. = n – 1 = 12 Confidence Level of 95% ==> α = 0.05 2 2 find χ critical from the χ -table based on d.f. = 12 and the Significance Level α = 0.05 χ2critical = 21.03 χ 2test < χ2critical ===> DO NOT Reject H0 Conclusion: The variance in auto prices in Chinese cities is NOT significantly larger than the variance in auto prices in European cities. 2