A Case Study of a Rare Long-Track EF-3 Tornado in Eastern Kentucky (Abstract)
Authors: Tyler Binkley, Ryan Difani, Andrew Dockery, Michael Flanigan, John L. Thomas, Quentin Walker,
Dr. Joshua Durkee
On 2 March 2012 a major severe weather outbreak took place across the Ohio River Valley and southern United
States. The associated storms generated 160 tornado, 469 (52 severe) hail, and 325 (10 severe) wind reports
across 16 states, with the first observed tornado on record in Martin County in eastern KY. Unfortunately, these
storms resulted in 40 fatalities and nearly 1.5 billion dollars in damages (the first billion dollar weather disaster of
2012). Given the relative rarity of tornadoes in eastern Kentucky, we present a case study of two EF-3 tornadoes
that affected the cities of West Liberty and Salyersville, KY, and nearby areas. This event was analyzed using Level
2 NEXRAD radar data, Rapid Update Cycle model output via Integrated Data Viewer, Kentucky Mesonet surface
observations, and mesoanalysis data from the Storm Prediction Center. The questions surrounding why such
strong tornadoes tracked across, in some cases tornado-void areas, may be addressed by analysis of the large-scale
atmospheric circulation and mesoscale interactions. Specifically, a strong surface cold frontal boundary advanced
upon an anomalous warm, moist sector, which was positioned across much of KY. Supercells developed across
western and central KY, where surface-based instability, effective bulk shear, and storm relative helicity values
ranged between 1500-2000 J/kg, 60-70 kts and 400-600 m2/S2, respectively. As these storms propagated east,
increased storm reflectivity from multiple storm mergers was observed, while the low-level jet intensified across
the eastern part of the state. Despite the waning convective instability, effective bulk shear and storm relative
helicity maxima up to 80 kts and 800 m2/S2, respectively, were positioned in the far eastern part of the state. It is
these conditions that primarily set the stage for the relatively rare and strong tornadic supercells in eastern KY on
that day. Lastly, it is plausible to consider that a wedged warm front along the mountainous terrain also played a
contributing role in the maintenance of strong helicity, rotating updrafts, and the resulting tornadoes.