1AC
plan
TEXT: The United States federal government should remove its economic
restrictions on joint oil cooperation toward Cuba.
contention 1 is oil spills
Cuba is preparing for off shore drilling--foreign governments are
investing now
Reuters 13 – World News Agency (“Cuban oil hopes sputter as Russians give up for now on well”, May 29, 2013, Reuters.com,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/cuba-oil-idUSL2N0EA00W20130529, JL)
In a development that is potentially both interesting and controversial, Norway's Statoil
ASA, which also partnered with
to be looking at possibilities on Cuba's mostly unexplored Caribbean side. A Cubapetroleo
map on display at a recent geosciences conference in Havana indicated that as of last November, Cuba was in negotiations
with the Norwegian oil giant to lease three large blocks along the central and southeastern coast ,
Repsol, appears
between the archipelago of the Gardens of the Queen and the coast in the Gulf of Ana Maria and the Gulf of Guacanayabo. Statoil
does not comment on pending projects, but industry sources said it may just be sniffing around as it does all over the world looking
for oil prospects and that its level of interest remains to be seen. The company has not mentioned Cuba in its drilling plans for the
next two years. It is likely also mindful of the sensitivity and potential dangers of drilling near the
Garden of the Queens, which is regarded as one of the world's most pristine coral reefs and whose
preservation as such has become a cause for international environmental groups. The same Cubapetroleo map showed that a
Brazilian firm, Synergy Corp, was in negotiations for a near-shore block on Cuba's north coast
that state-owned Petrobras abandoned two years ago, citing poor prospects.
That makes gulf spills inevitable – current response capabilities are
insufficient
Bolstad 12 (Erika Bolstad Worked from 2007-2011 as the Washington correspondent for the Anchorage Daily News and the
Idaho Statesman. Her work on the Larry Craig scandal for the Statesman was a finalist for the 2007 Pulitzer Prize in the breaking
news category, “Cuba embargo could threaten oil-drilling safety, expert says”, May 10, 2012,
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/05/10/148433/cuba-embargo-could-threaten-oil.html#storylink=cpy,JL)
WASHINGTON — The 50-year-old
U.S. embargo of Cuba is getting in the way of safety when it comes to
deepwater drilling in Cuban waters, an expert on the communist country’s offshore drilling activity said Thursday. Lee Hunt, the
former president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors, warned that Cold War-era economic sanctions threaten not
only Florida’s economy and environment but that of Cuba, too, in the event of a major disaster on the scale of
2010’s Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The worst-case scenario is "state-sponsored chaos at a disaster site," Hunt said
during an event sponsored by the Center for International Policy, a Washington think tank that advocates for a foreign policy based on human rights.
The U.S. Coast Guard has extensive response plans, as does the state of Florida. But Hunt
said he would give prevention
efforts an "F" grade . He likened the work to stocking body bags for a plane crash – but not
training pilots to fly safely or to maintain aircraft properly. "We’re getting ready for what will
inevitably happen if we don’t take the right proactive steps," Hunt said. His warning and that of other experts
came as the Spanish oil company Repsol is about to tap an offshore reservoir beneath 5,600 feet of seawater and about 14,000 feet of rock. The
company, the first of many set to drill for oil off Cuba’s coast, is working just 77 nautical miles from Key West. Workers are about a week from
completing their drilling and are beginning the technically demanding phase of capping the well and preparing it for possible production, the panelists
at the event said. Former U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chief William Reilly, who along with former Florida Sen. Bob Graham co-chaired the
presidential commission that examined BP’s Deepwater Horizon spill, said that in his most recent visit to Cuba he was reassured that Repsol was
moving slowly in Cuban waters to avoid any surprises. Dan Whittle of the Environmental Defense Fund said that in his visits to Cuba, well-thumbed
copies of the commission’s report looked as though they were "read even more in Havana than here." Reilly also noted that Cuban officials are regular
readers of daily bulletins from U.S. agencies on U.S. oil drilling regulations. He said he urged them to follow Mexican offshore guidelines – which he
said are based on U.S. rules. "Nobody is predicting a catastrophe in association with anything that the Cubans are overseeing," Reilly said. "In every
way, the Cuban approach to this is responsible, careful and attentive to the risks that they know they’re undertaking." "Nevertheless, should
there be a need for a response . . . the United States government has not interpreted its sanctions
policy in a way that would clearly make available in advance the kind of technologies that would
be required," Reilly said. Several of the experts said Thursday they are confident that the Treasury Department could react quickly in an
emergency to allow U.S. oil response teams to get emergency permits to do business with the Cuban government.
Location ensures that Cuba and United States are locked in an
interdependent relationship with the environment
Whittle 12- Environmental Law Proffessor at Wake Forest University, B.A from Colarodo Unviersity (Daniel J. Whittle, “Bridging the Gulf
Finding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba”, 2012,
http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf, JL)
The United
States has a vested interest in the health of Cuba’s natural environment for an underlying
reason: “location, location, location.” Aligning with the principle that “nature knows no political borders,” the United States
shares extensive and important elements of biodiversity at large spatial scales with Cuba, Mexico,
and the Bahamas, due to geographical proximity and prevailing ocean currents. Three major linked ocean currents in the Gulf Basin—the Gulf Loop
Current, Florida Current, and the Gulf Stream—create a “highway in the sea” that facilitates dispersal and
exchange of diverse aquatic organisms and populations between Cuban and U.S. territorial waters. The most dominant
current, the Gulf Loop, is a current of warm water from the Caribbean that travels northward from the Yucatan Straits to the Florida Straits. The Gulf
Loop creates a clockwise loop along the West Florida Shelf, where it becomes the Florida Current.7 After traveling eastward from the Gulf of Mexico
through the Florida Straits, the Florida Current shifts northward to power the Gulf Stream, which travels along the U.S. East Coast and is deflected into
the North Atlantic. TheGulf Loop naturally evolves, elongating to the north nearly to the coast of Louisiana before bending back on itself, forming a
central gyre, which is then pushed off into the western Gulf. The movement of these currents underscores the level of shared resources and high
connectivity between the United States and Cuba. Managing U.S. southeast fisheries “downstream” is incomplete if managers neglect to protect the key
spawning and nursery grounds upstream in the Caribbean, including Cuba, that are the
lifeline for important elements of
the multibillion-dollar commercial and recreational fisheries in the U.S. Gulf of
Mexico . Similarly, management (or mismanagement) of marine resources in the United States also
impacts Cuba’s economy and environment given our reciprocal relationship . Cuba’s extensive
coral reefs, seagrass meadows, and mangrove forests provide vital habitat for snapper, grouper, and other
reef fishes that spawn to send larvae towards the United States. The shared Gulf of Mexico also provides spawning sites and foraging habitats for
migratory species that are economically valuable to U.S. fisheries, including tunas, sharks, and billfishes. Other migratory species whose population
numbers are imperiled—such as the endangered Florida manatee, whale sharks (classified as ‘vulnerable’ by the IUCN), endangered sea turtles such as
the Hawksbill, and the highly depleted Atlantic bluefin tuna—travel unimpeded between Cuban and U.S. waters. It is also likely that the two
countries share an ancient deepwater coral ecosystem that encompasses more than 25,000 square
miles—ranging as far north as North Carolina—and makes up one of the world’s largest known areas of healthy
deep sea coral. In June 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) approved a plan to ban the use of destructive
bottom-trawling fishing gear in the U.S. South Atlantic portions of this ecosystem tosafeguard the reefs and the commercial fisheries that rely on
them.8 The interdependency
of our ecosystems—and the resulting economic ramifications—
reinforces the notion that environmental cooperation between the United States
and Cuba is an imperative.
Two impacts:
First, Cuban oil drilling threatens the most biodiverse area in the
region—ONLY lifting sanctions can prevent and contain a spill
Almeida, 12 http://gcaptain.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/?46322 Drilling Off Cuba, and How the Embargo Could be
Very Costly for the US BY ROB ALMEIDA ON MAY 18, 2012//JH
Prior to commencing drilling operations, Repsol contracted Helix Energy Solutions Group to provide immediate well intervention
and other subsea services in case of well issues.¶ It’s a great start, and Helix certainly proved their capabilities during the 2010
Macondo well blowout and oil spill, however Cuba is under a full economic and diplomatic embargo with
massive implications.¶ This means:¶ 1) The Scarabeo 9’s blowout preventer, the most crucial
piece of well control equipment on board the rig was made by a US company. The trade embargo
prohibits OEM spare parts or repair items to be sold to Repsol. Also, technical expertise from the
OEM cannot be provided.¶ 2) The “capping stacks” which have been created by Helix ESG, BP, the MWCC and
others, are not authorized for use in Cuban waters. This means, if an uncontrolled blowout does
occur, these essential piece of equipment will not be available until authorization is given and a delivery
method determined.¶ This is a significant issue considering the BP “capping stack” weighs somewhere around a half million pounds.
Reports indicate there are no cranes in Cuba capable of lifting such a piece of gear that massive on to a ship.¶ 3) The
deepwater drilling experts in the US are not authorized to provide assistance to Cuba in case of a
disaster.¶ 4) All the training programs that have been developed post-Macondo are not available
for Cuban nationals. In fact, any training that will result in a professional license or certification is off limits to Cubans.¶ 5)
Tyvek suits,
the essential work-wear for HAZMAT cleanup, are not authorized to be brought into
Cuba due to supposed military applications.¶ In addition…¶ The Scarabeo 9 was classed by DNV on 19 August 2011 in
Singapore, and she is due for her 1-year “checkup” on 19 August 2012, with a 3 month window on either side of that date. As
expected, DNV has told us that there will be no US-based employees involved.¶ What sort of legal, or commercial implications might
DNV face when they actually DO send someone to inspect the Scarabeo 9?¶ We asked the Bahamian registry, which is the flag state
for the rig, the same question about a week ago and received no response. I spoke with DNV today and they are still researching the
matter.¶ In short however, Cuba’s access to containment systems, offshore technology, and spill
response equipment is severely restricted by the US embargo, yet if a disaster occurs offshore,
not only will Cuban ecosystems be severely impacted, but those of the Florida Keys, and US East
Coast.¶ If disaster strikes offshore Cuba, US citizens will have nobody else to blame except the US Government because outdated
policies are impacting the ability to prepare sufficiently for real-life environmental threats. Considering Cuba waters are
home to the highest concentration of biodiversity in the region and is a spawning ground for fish
populations that migrate north into US waters, a Cuban oil spill could inflict unprecedented
environmental devastation if not planned for in advance.
Cuba is a bio-diversity hotspot
Whittle 12- Environmental Law Proffessor at Wake Forest University, B.A from Colarodo Unviersity (Daniel J. Whittle, “Bridging the Gulf
Finding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba”, 2012,
http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf, JL)
Cuba is a biological crown jewel
that boasts the largest marine biodiversity in the Caribbean. The country’s expanses of mangrove
forests, wetlands, seagrass meadows, and coral reefs provide critical spawning areas, feeding
grounds, and shelter for a wide array of marine animals, plants, and organisms. Its location within the Caribbean makes
Cuba a prime migratory corridor and wintering site, particularly given its positioning along the Mississippi and East Atlantic flyways. Cuba
provides crucial refueling habitat for 284 bird species that breed in the United States, including warblers, orioles and other
Situated at the convergence point of the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea,
song birds, shore birds and wading birds, and raptorial birds.2 Cuba’s network of wetlands provide extremely important habitat for waterbird species—
including flamingos, ibises, cormorants, egrets, and spoonbills—that form in record concentrations not found elsewhere throughout the Caribbean.3
One of these wetlands, the
Zapata Swamp on Cuba’s southern coast, encompasses over a million acres and
represents one of the largest protected areas in the entire Caribbean region.
Loss of Bio-Diversity causes extinction
Nautiyal and Nidamanuri 10 – Centre for Ecological Economics at Institute for Scoial and Economic Change,
Nidamanuri: Economic change & Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the Indian Institute of space science and Technology
(Sunil Nautiyal and Rama Rao Nidamanuri, “Conserving Biodiversity in Protected Area of Biodiversity Hotspot in India: A Case
Study,” http://www.researchgate.net/publicat
ion/229046655_Conserving_Biodiversity_in_Protected_Area_of_Biodiversity_Hotspot_in_India_A_Case_Study, )
The hotspots are the world’s most biologically rich areas hence recognized as important ecosystems
not important¶ only for the rich biodiversity but equally important for the human survival as these are
the homes for more than¶ 20% of the world’s population. India got recognition of one of the mega-diversity countries of world as the
country¶ is home of the two important biodiversity hotspots: the Himalaya in north and the Western Ghats in the southern¶
peninsula. Policy makers and decision takers have recognized the importance of biodiversity (flora and fauna)
and¶ this has resulted to segregate (in the form of protected areas) the rich and diverse landscape for biodiversity¶ conservation. An
approach which leads towards conservation of biological diversity is good efforts but such¶ approaches should deal with
humans equally who are residing in biodiversity hotspots since time immemorial. In¶ this endeavor, a study was conducted
in Nagarahole National Park of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, in Karnataka. Our¶ empirical studies reveal that banning all the human
activities in this ecosystem including agriculture, animal¶ husbandry has produced the results opposite to the approach ‘multiple
values’ of national park. To monitor the¶ impact, existing policies have been tested from an economic and ecological view-point.
Unfortunately, the local¶ livelihoods (most of them belongs to indigenous tribes) in the area have received setbacks due to the¶
implementation of the policies, though unintentionally. However, the ecological perspective is also not showing¶ support for the
approach and framework of the current policies in the hotspots. Satellite data showed that the¶ temporal pattern of ecosystem
processes has been changing. An integrated approach for ecosystem conservation and¶ strengthening local institutions for
sustainable ecosystem management in such areas is therefore supported by this¶ study.
Second is tourism, an oil spill would devastate Cuban tourism sector
Whittle 12- Environmental Law Proffessor at Wake Forest University, B.A from Colarodo Unviersity (Daniel J. Whittle, “Bridging the Gulf
Finding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba”, 2012,
http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf, JL)
The intertwined relationship between coastal economies and the local environment illustrates that the economic implications of a
major deepwater spill in Cuba could be substantial, with far-reaching impacts on tourism as well as
fishing. In Florida, over 86.5 million tourists visited the state in 2011 and
generated over $67 billion in direct economic impact.50 Tourism represents Florida’s top
industry and accounts for 23 percent of the state’s sales tax revenue.51 Florida also boasts one of the most
productive commercial fisheries in the country, and its recreational saltwater fishery has an economic
impact of $5.7 billion, while supporting over 54,000 jobs.52 As demonstrated during the Deepwater Horizon
disaster, publicity surrounding a spill can ignite public fears and decimate tourism and
seafood consumption even in areas spared of oil exposure. An oil spill could threaten fisheries
and tourism in Cuba as much as in Florida. Top tourist areas along Cuba’s North Coast—including Cayo Paraiso and
commercial and recreational
Cayo Levisa—are known for their pristine beaches and attractive snorkeling opportunities. Following Havana, the resort town of
Varadero is the second most popular destination on the island for foreign travelers. Varadero’s extensive beaches receive one million
international visitors annually and could experience devastating physical and financial impacts in the event of a spill. Cayo Coco,
located on the Sabana Camaguey Archipelago on the northern shore of Cuba, is another prime tourist destination also directly
vulnerable to a potential spill. With its crystal waters and pristine white sand beaches, Cayo Coco is home to a host of all-inclusive
luxury resorts. In 2011, tourism attracted 2.7 million visitors and 2.5 billion in income to Cuba, which represents a 12.8 percent
increase in revenue from the previous year.53 Given that the
Cuba’s economic growth,
impacted its shores
tourism industry is perceived as the engine of
the island would have much
to lose if a highly-publicized oil spill
Tourism is key to Cuba’s economy
Fanelli 8 – Department of Sociology, York University (Carlo “‘Cubanalismo’: The Cuban Alternative to Neoliberalism,” New
Proposals: Journal of Marxism and Interdisciplinary Inquiry, Vol.2, No. 1 (November 2008) Pp. 7-16
ojs.library.ubc.ca/index.php/newproposals/article/download/144/238)//A-Berg
Aside from increasing investments in biotechnological and pharmaceutical industries, one of Cuba’s
most affluent
investments has been in the tourism industry. Ever since the mid-1990s, Cuban tourism in the form
of hotels, restaurants and leisure activities has continued growing at nearly 10% annually and contributes
nearly $3 billion to the economy in gross revenues (Perry et al 1??7). The strength of the Cuban economy is
demonstrated by the fact that in 2006 the Cuban economy grew at nearly 12% (CIA 2007a) compared with the US economy, which
grew at only 2.?% in the same year (CIA 2007b). Although the Cuban economy has oriented itself to one focused on high technology
and has also increased the amount of FDI, public sector employment remains very high and stable at roughly 76% of the working
population (Uriarte, 2002).
Cuban economic collapse causes nuclear war
Gorrell ‘5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18/5,
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s problems of a post Castro
transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will
return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will
attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the
conditions for instability and civil war . Whether Raul or another successor from within the current
government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current
policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally
collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U.S. maintains the “wait and see” approach. The U.S. then
must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will
flee the island.
During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals; this
time the number
could be several hundred thousand flee ing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis.¶ Equally
important, by adhering to a negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational
criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the drug-trafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of
policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than
hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs – 7.5 tons in 1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in
2000.27 While there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S.
may pass through Cuba, the
Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If
there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a
Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably.¶ In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the
opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups
can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere
then the war against this extremism gets more complicated . Such activity could
increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile
democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region,
the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for
another insurgency . The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment
throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems.¶ U.S. domestic political support is also
turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these
exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election
strategy may be flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear
softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line
approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations. (Table 1)¶ The time has come to look realistically at the
Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what happens then? The
U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a
failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does not have the
luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. The
President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings
were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and economic resources. There is
justifiable concern that
Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist
activity, so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in
waiting. We also cannot ignore China . What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the
Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could conceivably be the next target for
U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or
many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can the U.S. afford to
sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies
of the past 40 years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to
post-Castro Cuba?
contention 2 is cooperation
Chavez’ death means now is the key time to restore relations-- Cuba is
more open to US involvement than ever
Gomez 13 – assistant professor in the Department of Public Policy & Administration at Rutgers University (Eduardo J. Gomez,
“Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of Chavez's alliance” CNN, March 13 2013, http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/13/opinion/gmezchavez-ahmadinejad-america) MR
Chávez's death is certainly changing the political calculus in Venezuela, but will it also result in a broader shift that
could realign much of Latin America and affect attitudes toward, and relationships with, the United
States? The answer is likely "yes." First, the grouping of nations previously opposing the United States under
Chávez's leftist alliance -- namely the "Alba" alliance, comprised of Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Bolivia -could well wither away, due to Venezuela's ongoing recession and fears that alliance members will no
longer have Venezuela's financial backing. When combined with reports of Chávez's expressed desire to strengthen
ties with the Obama administration, regional hostility towards the United States may decline. Since assuming office
in 1999, Chávez viewed Washington as an oppressive force manipulating Latin American politics while keeping the region
underdeveloped through its dependence on U.S. resources. In response, Chávez approached like-minded leaders to build a coalition
challenging the regional influence of the United States. By 2005, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba, Honduras and Ecuador joined Chávez's
coalition, which led to the formation of the Bolivian Alliance of the Americas, also known as Alba. Alba served as an alternative to the
Free Trade Act of the Americas, with an explicit focus on poverty reduction, but it also facilitated the unification of these nations in
their anti-American sentiments . With Chávez gone, however, there may be no one left who has the clout to keep financing this
alliance. Venezuela is Alba's largest financier, contributing millions in aid to its members as well as oil at low prices. But
Venezuelans may believe that with ongoing poverty and inequality, their country's needs are more
important than those of Chávez's small club of nations. This situation worries Alba members. According to Cynthia
Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, while Bolivia and Ecuador are independently wealthy and not
financially dependent on Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua are. Cuba receives roughly 100,000 barrels of Venezuelan
oil a day, while Venezuela accounted for $8.3 billion of Cuba's $20 billion in foreign trade in 2011.
Chávez also paid approximately $6 billion annually for 40,000 Cuban doctors and nurses, according to Reuters.
Cuban citizens fear that Chávez's death will push them back to the days of the post-Cold War
recession, when Russia gradually withdrew its funding for Cuba. Meanwhile, Nicaragua has received approximately $500 million
a year in loans and oil credits, increasing to $609 million in 2011, while earnings from agricultural exports to Venezuela increased
from $2 million in 2006 to $300 million in 2011. But alliance members also realize that they have options. Nicaragua's economic
minister, Bayardo Arce, recently stated that it's time to diversify Nicaragua's economic relations with China, Europe and the United
States, mainly because Nicaragua has "to anticipate that Alba is not going to be permanent." Cuba may also seek to strengthen its
relations with Brazil, its second-largest trade partner in the region. In fact, both governments already have plans to engage in several
trade and infrastructure projects and are ramping up trade, mainly in sugar exports. Ecuador and Nicaragua are working more
closely with Brazil in helping to construct hydroelectric energy plants and chemical industries, respectively. In addition to strong
economic growth rates, Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff's policy commitments to the poor and enhanced control over key
economic sectors, such as oil, may provide a more appealing leftist model. In recent years, Chávez was also interested in improving
relations with the United States. He saw President Obama's re-election victory as an opportunity to strengthen diplomatic ties.
Chávez once commented: "I wish we could begin a new period of normal relations." Chávez was so committed to this endeavor that
even from his hospital in Cuba, he authorized his second in command, Vice President Nicolas Maduro, to start negotiating with the
U.S. State Department. While it may seem that Maduro may have a difficult time working with the United States, considering his
accusations that the United States has historically plotted against Venezuela and the recent removal of U.S. diplomats from Caracas,
it appears that this was mainly done to gain the trust of Chávez political supporters in order to secure Maduro's position as the next
president. U.S. diplomatic officials view Maduro as a pragmatist and the fact that he was supportive of initiating closer ties with the
United States last year suggests that this could continue, especially in light of Venezuela's economic troubles and the need to
increase revenues through trade. Chávez's passing should motivate the United States to seek a new partnership with Venezuela.
First, Secretary of State John Kerry should reopen the U.S. embassy in Caracas, which has been closed since 2010, while assigning
diplomats who are committed to engaging in peaceful dialogue and political and economic cooperation. Second, Kerry should take
this opportunity to strengthen cooperation over issues that can provide mutual benefits in the areas of national security and the
economy, such as counternarcotics, counterterrorism, as well as sustaining oil trade: the United States currently imports just under 1
million barrels a day from Venezuela. But the
United States should also see this situation as an opportunity to
strengthen its ties with other nations, such as Cuba. With the likely decline in economic assistance to
Cuba from Venezuela, Cuban President Raul Castro may consider stepping up negotiations with the
Obama administration over the U.S. embargo, human rights and the release of American prisoners,
such as Alan Gross. Chávez is gone, but the United States' commitment to peaceful democratic relations persists. Going forward,
the United States should explore ways of strengthening its ties with Venezuela and other Latin American
nations.
Offshore drilling investment restores relations—it’s the vital starting
point
Grogg 12 – Senior Research and Professor at University of Havana specializing in international
economics, citing Luiz Rene Fernandez (Patricia, “CUBA: Oil Drilling Opens Up New
Possibilities,” IPS 2/16/12, http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/02/cuba-oil-drilling-opens-up-newpossibilities/)
The search for oil in Cuba’s Gulf of Mexico waters, launched by the Spanish firm Repsol, has triggered speculation about future
prospects for Cuba and the possibility of this country one day making the transition from importer to exporter of crude. Moreover,
given its strategic importance for both the United States and Cuba, some analysts believe that energy
offers a potential area for cooperation that could eventually help pave the way to the
normalisation of relations between the two countries. For the moment, the Cuban authorities
and oil industry personnel are remaining discreetly silent on the subject. CUPET, the state-owned
oil company, has limited itself to officially confirming the arrival in the country on Jan. 19 of the
Scarabeo 9 oil rig for “the resumption in the coming days of deepwater drilling for oil exploration.” Drilling
operations presumably began in late January. According to CUPET, the goal is to continue testing to determine the
potential for oil and gas production in Cuba’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Gulf of Mexico. The
results of the drilling will contribute to defining that potential. After opening up its economy to foreign
investment in 1991, Cuba divided the EEZ, which covers an area of 112,000 sq km, into 59 oil and gas exploration blocks. On Jan. 18,
Rafael Tenreiro, director of exploration and production at CUPET, reiterated a previous estimate of a potential 20,000 million
barrels in the area. At the launching of the book “Perforación de pozos petroleros marinos” (“Offshore Oil Well Drilling”) by Rolando
Fernández, supervisor of the Gulf of Mexico operations group, Tenreiro stated that it was “possible” that Cuba could
become an oil exporter. “We have to prepare the country for this good news,” he added, stressing
the need for the production of technology and participation in the entire process . In 2011, more than
20 offshore exploration blocks had already been leased to large foreign energy companies, including, in addition to Repsol,
StatoilHydro of Norway, ONGC Videsh of India, PETRONAS of Malaysia, PetroVietnam, Gazprom of Russia, Sonangol of Angola the
Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. Reflecting on the potential ramifications should Repsol’s exploratory drilling prove
successful, university professor Fernando Martirena told IPS that large-scale development of the Cuban oil industry would obviously
provide a boost to the government programmes currently underway, since it would represent “a needed injection of
fresh foreign currency into a tense national economy.” This scenario, “combined with the
package of measures being implemented as a result of the ‘updating’ of the Cuban economic
model, will heat up the issue of the blockade,” said Martirena. Under the U.S. economic embargo
against this Caribbean island nation, in place for 50 years this month, U.S. companies are shut out from profiting
from a potential oil boom in Cuba. In Martirena’s view, if the U.S. Congress wants to be pragmatic, “it
will have to choose between continuing to support the hysterical Cuban-American bloc that does so
much lobbying around the issue of the blockade, or simply accepting reality – that there is no reason to
maintain this policy.” Cuban-American members of Congress headed up by the chairwoman of the influential House Foreign
Affairs Committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, have attempted to block Repsol’s drilling operations in Cuban waters. While they claim that
their opposition is based on concerns for the environment and the security of the United States, analysts believe that their
motivation is primarily political. Before arriving in Cuban waters, the Scarabeo 9 drilling rig – built in China and assembled in
Singapore, and therefore exempt from the prohibitions of the U.S. embargo – successfully passed inspection by personnel from the
U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement and the U.S. Coast Guard. CUPET has also
vouched that the cutting-edge equipment leased by Repsol for its drilling operations has been duly verified to include the necessary
features to guarantee the utmost efficiency and safety. The exploratory drilling is expected to last roughly two and a half months.
“Technically speaking, the chances of a mishap occurring in Cuba’s economic area are extremely small, not only because of the
precautions taken, but also for purely statistical reasons. This is one drilling rig out of the countless rigs operating outside of Cuban
waters” in the Gulf of Mexico, economist Luis René Fernández commented to IPS. An expert on Cuba-U.S. relations, Fernández
noted that while there are political risks associated with the issues of security and environmental
impacts, there are also experiences that indicate that these “could and should be reduced.”
“(Socialist) Venezuela has not stopped supplying oil to the United States, although it has tried to diversity its markets,” he
mentioned as an example. He also pointed to the migration accords signed by Havana and Washington and Cuba’s purchases of food
from U.S. companies despite “all of the restrictions and limitations.” “In these cases, among the reasons for a certain type of
communication and collaboration, it always boils down to the importance of geography. There are common issues in which it is
more beneficial for both sides to address them directly and even to cooperate. Not doing so could have high costs, not only economic,
but also for the environment and security,” he said. Fernández stressed that the U.S. government is not a “unified actor” and that
there are different agencies that deal with matters such as energy and the environment. “There are experts and professionals who
fulfil their missions and could have real impacts on the concrete political situation,” he said, due to geographical proximity but also
because “it is advisable to cooperate in spite of political and ideological differences. ” In his opinion, both
countries are moving in the mid term and especially in the long term towards the
normalisation of relations , regardless of the particular political circumstances in the United
States. “On the Cuban side, there is a well-known willingness to cooperate and even to debate, on respectful and equal terms, all of
the aspects of the bilateral conflict,” he stressed. “This could be another important area for cooperation,
precisely because of the strategic significance of energy sources for both the United States and
Cuba. Are there risks? Without a doubt. But the benefits of cooperation definitely outweigh them,”
Fernández concluded
Poor relations with Cuba destroy US leadership in Latin America
Clement, 13 http://www.ciponline.org/images/uploads/publications/0413_RapprochementCuba_TampaConference.pdf
RappRochement with cuba Tampa, Florida March 23, 2013 A Report by Joshua Clement April 2013//JH
As the last panelist to address the audience, Colonel Larry Wilkerson closed the conference. Colonel Wilkerson, a respected military
officer, told the audience that Cuba is not a threat to the United States. “Most people in the Pentagon
believe that our policy towards Cuba is stupid…. They (the Cuban government) are not
promoting revolution; they are promoting healthcare.” Wilkerson argued that Cuba’s foreign policy is to deploy
doctors around the world to assist developing nations. He applauded the small island’s success in providing healthcare and
education to its citizens. Moreover, he argued that there can be positive cooperation between the two countries. With the
majority of governments in the Western Hemisphere threatening not to attend the next Summit
of the Americas unless Cuba is invited, as well as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States
(CELAC) recently nominating and electing Cuban President Raul Castro as its president , Wilkerson
said, “We (the United States) are becoming an isolated party in our own hemisphere!” Is this what we
want? Colonel Wilkerson said that “moral courage” is needed in the White House if there is to be any change in policy towards Cuba.
So far, according to Wilkerson, the Obama Administration has shown “little moral courage.” He is hopeful, however, that Secretary
of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel will contribute positively to the Obama Administration’s second term. If
the U.S. is to avoid being a pariah in its own hemisphere, the executive branch must be the first
to promote a policy between the two countries that is based on cooperation and a respect for
human rights. President Obama can start by removing Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. As Colonel Wilkerson
made clear in his lecture, the Cuban government is not promoting revolution or contributing to terrorist organizations. Removing
Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list would make it more difficult for elected officials, such as Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz,
Mario Diaz-Balart and Bob Menendez to block normalizing relations with Cuba. The panelists encouraged Americans to take up the
battle by writing their state representatives, asking them to make engagement with Cuba a priority. With a surge of interest in
establishing a dialogue with Cuba at the state level, a strong message will be sent to the President.
Normalizing relations with Cuba reverses negative perceptions
throughout Latin America and solves stability
Sweig and Bustamante, 13 Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations and the author of Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know; a Ph.D. candidate in Latin American history at Yale
University (Julia E. Sweig and Michael J. Bustamante, July/August 2013, Foreign Affairs, “Cuba After Communism”,
http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&sid=2d854e83-f586-49a7-ac8dfdfa99a5a7a2%40sessionmgr110&hid=117&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=ofs&AN=88213870) KD
The geopolitical context in Latin America provides another reason the U.S. government should
make a serious shift on Cuba. For five years now, Obama has ignored Latin America's unanimous
disapproval of Washington's position on Cuba. Rather than perpetuate Havana's diplomatic isolation, U.S. policy
embodies the imperial pretensions of a bygone era, contributing to Washington's own marginalization. Virtually all countries in
the region have refused to attend another Summit of the Americas meeting if Cuba is not at the
table. Cuba, in turn, currently chairs the new Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which excludes Washington.
The Obama administration has begun laying out what could become a serious second-term agenda for Latin America focused on
energy, jobs, social inclusion, and deepening integration in the Americas. But the symbolism of Cuba across the
region is such that the White House can definitively lead U.S. -- Latin American relations out of
the Cold War and into the twenty-first century only by shifting its Cuba policy.¶ To make such a shift,
however, Washington must move past its assumption that Havana prefers an adversarial
relationship with the United States. Raúl Castro has shown that he is not his brother and has availed himself of numerous
channels, public and private, to communicate to Washington that he is ready to talk. This does not mean that he or his successors
are prepared to compromise on Cuba's internal politics; indeed, what Castro is willing to put on the table remains unclear. But his
government's decisions to release more than 120 political prisoners in 2010 and 2011 and allow a number of dissident bloggers and
activists to travel abroad this year were presumably meant to help set the stage for potential talks with the United States.¶
Meanwhile, the death of Hugo Chávez, the former Venezuelan president, and the narrow margin in the election of his
successor, Nicolás Maduro, have
made it clear that Havana has reasons of its own to chart a path
forward with the United States. In the last decade or so, Cuba came to depend on Venezuela for large
supplies of subsidized oil, in exchange for a sizable brigade of Cuban doctors staffing the Chávez government's social programs.
Political uncertainty in Caracas offers a potent reminder of the hazards of relying too heavily on
any one partner. Havana is already beginning to branch out. In addition to financing the refurbishing of Mariel Harbor, the
Brazilians have extended a line of credit to renovate and expand five airports across the island and have recently signed a deal to hire
6,000 Cuban doctors to fill shortages in Brazil's rural health coverage. Even so, in the long run, the United States
remains a vital natural market for Cuban products and services.
Two impacts:
First, Latin America instability empowers Brazilian hardliners
Millett 02 PhD, Senior Fellow at the North-South Center, Oppenheimer Chair of Modern Warfighting Strategy at the U.S.
Marine Corps University, Professor Emeritus of History at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville (Richard L. Millet Oct. 2002
Strategic Studies Institute, Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War) //KY
While the
spillover of Colombia’s conflicts has exacerbated the problems of the region significantly
and has reduced the resources available to confront mounting political and economic dilemmas,
it is by no means the principal cause of these problems. The economies and/or the political leadership of every one of Colombia’s
neighbors are in jeopardy. In part, this stems from global economic problems further fueled by volatile commodity prices, the U.S.
recession and the Argentine economic collapse, declines in investor confidence, and the difficulties of adjusting to a globalized
economy. Even more, it reflects the failure of political leadership, dogged by traditions of corruption and divisive politics. In
Ecuador and Brazil,
no party can count on a majority in Congress, and high levels of uncertainty cloud upcoming
presidential elections. The governments in Peru and Panama must deal with the heritage of past corruption, with a growing
perception of them as weak and 28 incompetent, and with steadily declining levels of popular support. In Venezuela, President
Chavez came to power largely because of a massive public rejection of the traditional political class, but he has become a symbol of
divisiveness instead of unity, facing the constant threat of ouster by constitutional or by unconstitutional means. This mix of
political and economic crisis provides the fertile ground in which the alliance of political and
criminal violence thrives. It undermines efforts to stabilize democracy and install anything
approaching the rule of law. An August 2002 poll showed this trend widespread throughout Latin
America. Citizens increasingly blamed the political class for their problems and half said they
“wouldn’t mind if an authoritarian government came to power.” Support for free market economics also
showed a sharp decline.98 Venezuela’s political crisis is the ultimate wild card in efforts to promote any regional response to
Colombia’s conflicts. Until that is resolved, finding any common agenda will be nearly impossible. Brazil’s regional power
ambitions, combined with its suspicions of any outside involvement in the Amazon Basin, the
traditional enmity between Peru and Ecuador and between Venezuela and Colombia, and the extreme weakness of the Panamanian
security apparatus, are also obstacles which will be difficult to overcome.
Brazil hardliner takeover causes nuclear war
Schulz, 2k Ph.D., Chair of Political Science at Cleveland State U., fmr. Research Professor of National Security at the Strategic
Studies Institute of the US Army College, (Donald E. Schulz, March 2k. Strategic Studies Institute, The United States and Latin
America: Shaping an Elusive Future) //KY
Until recently, the primary U.S. concern about Brazil has been that it might acquire nuclear weapons and delivery systems. In the
1970s, the Brazilian military embarked on a secret program to develop an atom bomb. By the late 1980s, both Brazil and Argentina
were aggressively pursuing nuclear development programs that had clear military spin-offs.54 There were powerful military and
civilian advocates of developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles within both countries. Today, however, the situation has
changed. As a result of political leadership transitions in both countries, Brazil and Argentina now appear firmly committed to
restricting their nuclear programs to peaceful purposes. They have entered into various nuclear-related agreements with each
other—most notably the quadripartite comprehensive safeguards agreement (1991), which permits the inspection of all their nuclear
installations by the International Atomic Energy 26 Agency—and have joined the Missile Technology Control Regime. Even so, no
one can be certain about the future. As Scott Tollefson has observed: . . . the military application of Brazil’s nuclear and
space programs depends less on technological considerations than on political will. While technological constraints
present a formidable barrier to achieving nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles, that barrier is not insurmountable. The critical
element, therefore, in determining the applications of Brazil’s nuclear and space technologies will be primarily political.55 Put
simply, if changes in political leadership were instrumental in redirecting Brazil’s nuclear
program towards peaceful purposes, future political upheavals could still produce a reversion to
previous orientations. Civilian supremacy is not so strong that it could not be swept away by a coup, especially if the
legitimacy of the current democratic experiment were to be undermined by economic crisis and growing poverty/inequality. Nor
are civilian leaders necessarily less militaristic or more committed to democracy than the military. The example of
Peru’s Fujimori comes immediately to mind. How serious a threat might Brazil potentially be? It has been estimated that if the
nuclear plant at Angra dos Reis (Angra I) were only producing at 30 percent capacity, it could produce five 20-kiloton weapons a
year. If production from other plants were included, Brazil would have a capability three times greater than India or Pakistan.
Furthermore, its defense industry already has a substantial missile producing capability. On the other
hand, the country has a very limited capacity to project its military power via air and sealift or to sustain its forces over long
distances. And though a 1983 law authorizes significant military manpower increases (which could place Brazil at a numerical level
slightly higher than France, Iran and Pakistan), such growth will be restricted by a lack of economic resources. Indeed, the
development of all these military potentials has been, and will continue to be, 27 severely constrained by a lack of money. (Which is
one reason Brazil decided to engage in arms control with Argentina in the first place.) 56 In short, a restoration of Brazilian
militarism, imbued with nationalistic ambitions for great power status, is not unthinkable, and
such a regime could present some fairly serious problems. That government would probably
need foreign as well as domestic enemies to help justify its existence. One obvious candidate
would be the United States, which would presumably be critical of any return to dictatorial rule. Beyond this, moreover,
the spectre of a predatory international community, covetous of the riches of the Amazon, could
help rally political support to the regime. For years, some Brazilian military officers have been warning of “foreign
intervention.” Indeed, as far back as 1991 General Antenor de Santa Cruz Abreu, then chief of the Military Command of the Amazon,
threatened to transform the region into a “new Vietnam” if developed countries tried to “internationalize” the Amazon.
Subsequently, in 1993, U.S.-Guyanese combined military exercises near the Brazilian border provoked an angry response from many
high-ranking Brazilian officers. 57
Second, Lack of US presence invites Russia to use Cuba as a means to
project power and expand influence
Lee 08 – President of Foreign Policy Research Insititute; authority on international crime and narcotics and nuclear security
issues; a Stanford Ph.D.; president of Global Advisory Services, a McLean, Virginia-based consulting firm (Rens, “Rethinking the
Embargo,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64618/rens-lee/rethinking-theembargo)//Bwang
Current U.S. policy makes Cuba a target of opportunity for a resurgent and increasingly hostile
Russia. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin talks openly about "restoring [Russia's] position in Cuba,"
and hints are surfacing in Moscow that Russia might reestablish a military and intelligence
presence on the island in response to the planned U.S. missile defense shield in eastern Europe. Points of
cooperation under consideration include using Cuba as a refueling stop for long-range bombers and
for reconnaissance ships and aircraft and reopening a gigantic Soviet-era electronic monitoring and
surveillance facility near Havana. A state visit to Havana in July by the hard-line Russian deputy prime minister,
Igor Sechin (a reported former KGB agent and a member of Putin's inner circle), and the head of Russia's Security
Council, Nikolai Patrushev, could presage a new strategic dialogue between Moscow and Havana, even
though the visit was officially touted as investment-related.
Also, it is hardly coincidental that the warming
of Cuban-Russian ties and the discussion of a
renewed military relationship have followed closely on the accession of Raul Castro as the de facto
Cuban leader. Moscow has historically regarded Raul's brother Fidel as emotionally volatile, a view stemming from Fidel's erratic
behavior during the Cuban missile crisis, when, in the Soviets' view, Fidel was trying to provoke a U.S.-Soviet nuclear conflict.
With Raul -- who resembles a Soviet-style apparatchik -- in charge, Russia may feel more comfortable deploying
strategic or intelligence assets on the island.
Specifically, Russian companies will return to drill in 2014 – it was a
temporary leave
Goodhue 13 – Staff writer for keys.net (David Goodhue, “Last Cuban offshore oil project ending for now”, June 6, 2013,
Keys.net, http://www.keysnet.com/2013/06/06/487368/last-cuban-offshore-oil-project.html, JL)
A Russian
oil company using a Norwegian-owned drilling rig is temporarily pulling out of Cuban
watchers say it is too soon to dismiss Cuba’s
waters without finding any significant sources of crude, but industry
offshore energy potential. The Songa Mercur was searching for oil in at least two prospects near the Bahamas’ exclusive
economic zone with Cuba — located fewer than 200 miles from the South Florida coast. The Cuban government announced in late
May the state-run Russian company operating the rig, Zarubezhneft, was leaving the area but would return to
the same spot in 2014. The announcement has major implications for Cuba’s energy future. The communist island nation is
heavily dependent on imports from ally nations like Venezuela for its oil needs. Cuba suffered a major disappointment when several
countries were unsuccessful in finding oil in the deep waters of the Florida Straits last year. The area — about 70 miles from Key
West — might contain large amounts of oil, but it is in very deep water, the crude is difficult to find and working in the area is highly
expensive. Operations in the Straits cost companies about $100 million each in exploratory missions alone, said Jorge Piñon,
associate director of the Latin America and Caribbean Energy Program at the University of Texas at Austin. “I have been told that
the oil is there, but the traps/structures are very difficult. So oil companies are probably likely to spend their limited capital dollars
in other more promising, less risky areas (not only technical but also politically) than Cuba,” Piñon said in an e-mail. “They would
rather go to Brazil, Angola, Alaska, U.S. Gulf of Mexico or the new growing market of shale in Argentina.” The Straits exploration —
conducted by four international companies on a giant Chinese-built, Italian-owned semi-submersible oil rig — worried both
environmentalists and critics of Cuba’s Castro regime. But the operation was largely a bust and only two of the participating
companies are still in the region: Malaysia’s Petronas and Gazprom, from Russia. They’re operating in a partnership and are now
only conducting “some seismic work,” Piñon said. The first company to work on the rig, Spain’s Repsol, closed its Cuban offices. And
Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, is going through too many financial difficulties to invest again in the risky Straits, according to
Piñon. The area near the Bahamas where Zarubezhneft is exploring is much shallower — around 2,000 feet
below the surface as opposed to 6,000 feet in the Straits. This makes it a more attractive place for companies like
Zarubezhneft to search for offshore fossil fuels. Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the Russian Federation Council — the country’s
equivalent of the U.S. Senate — pledged in a May interview with Cuba’s state-run Granma newspaper continued investment and
involvement in Cuba’s offshore energy projects. “We are currently negotiating a broad range of projects relating
to energy, and Russian companies such as Zarubezhneft are actively involved in oil prospecting
in Cuban waters, and this work is going to continue,” Matvienko said. But the company might not use the Songa
Mercur when it returns, according to oil industry sources. One of the reasons Zarubezhneft is leaving Cuba is
because the rig was having equipment difficulties. Instead, Zarubezhneft may come back in a drill ship, a
traditional seagoing vessel with oil-drilling capabilities.
Russian expansion is hostile – reignites Cold War hostilities
Walle 12 – Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Walter, “Russia Turns to the South for Military and
Economic Alliances,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 5/8/12, http://www.coha.org/russia-turns-to-the-south-for-military-andeconomic-alliances/)//Bwang
Quite clearly, Russia’s interest in Latin America is escalating. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov,
argued in his article, “The New Stage of Development of Russian-Latin American Relations,” that there is great
attractiveness in establishing bilateral relations, especially when three of the top twenty emerging economies Mexico, Brazil and Argentina- are in Latin America.[23] Lavrov has also stated that the Russian Federation
has an interest in joining the Inter-American Development Bank, perhaps a move to better
accommodate Russian interests in the region, while at the same time neutralizing American influence.¶ Demonstrably,
Russia has been developing cooperative relationships with prominent organizational bodies of the
region, such as the OAS (Organization of American States), and has ratified visa-free travel agreements with
countries like Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. In his article, Lavrov argues that Russia’s
intention behind quests for partnerships is the establishment of non-ideologized relationships with Latin American countries,
relationships that could be of mutual benefit to all parties involved.¶ However, the Russian stance on Latin America
ultimately may be cause for apprehension. The establishment of bilateral, cordial relations
between Russia and Latin American countries could evolve to a proxy, neo-Cold War scenario. If
the situation in the regions worsens, some countries would be funded and supported by the U.S.,
while others, including several members of Latin America’s “New Left”, would become the major beneficiaries of
Moscow. An analogy of such practice is the Georgia – Russia crisis that surfaced in August of 2008. During this brief war, the
U.S. sent military aid to Georgia[24] on warships to territory Russia considers its “backyard” (i.e. the Caucasus and the Black Sea),
infuriating Moscow. A month after the conflict erupted, ostensibly in retaliation, Russia sent two Tu-160 bombers to conduct
military exercises with Washington’s least favorite nation in Latin America: Venezuela[25]. More importantly, in November of 2008
Moscow conducted war games with Caracas, in which a small Russian fleet was sent to the Caribbean to participate in joint naval
maneuvers with the Venezuelan navy.[26] This was a powerful symbolic act: as it was the first time that Russian warships had
visited the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis.¶ In the wake of the post-Georgia conflict, such joint military
maneuvers between Russia and Venezuela were revitalized, and helped to build up the tensions
between Washington and Moscow, sending strong signals of a Cold War revival. Furthermore, in the
aftermath of the declarations of independence by the breakaway regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Venezuela[27] and
Nicaragua[28] were alone among Latin American countries in recognizing the independence of the new republics.
Normalizing relations solves--it crowds out Russia from the region.
Blank 09 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
(Stephen, “Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US’s Neighborhood,” IFRI, April 2009, pdf)//Bwang
The only way in which Russian policy truly threatens the US and Latin America is its military and intelligence support for Chavez
and similar leaders. This support is passed on to insurgents while strengthening Chavez and his allies. Adequate responses
to such threats are inherently economic and political, and only military as a last resort. ¶ Washington can
do much more to facilitate security in Latin America: regenerating its own economy;
simultaneously opening up trade markets and eliminating barriers to Latin American exports;
enhancing multilateralism and interoperability among defense forces as requested by Latin
American militaries; and beginning the normalization of Cuba.¶ Havana is no longer the threat it was,
Venezuela has claimed that dubious honor. Rehabilitating Cuba, given that Castro’s days are clearly
numbered, would take the air out of Chavez’s balloon; it is quite clear that Havana would
probably welcome a path towards better relations with the US, especially the economic benefits
they would inevitably bring. A policy with a more symbolically important impact upon Latin America is currently difficult
to imagine.¶ Nonetheless, there should be no illusion that the security problems that plague this region
are easily overcome, quite the opposite. But that is all the more reason why the US cannot ignore
the area and let it drift to Moscow, Tehran, and Beijin for want of a better alternative. That outcome would only confirm
once again that in world politics, there is no such thing as benign neglect. Instead neglect is malign and engenders
negative results for the negligent state along with those neglected. The policies of the Bush
administration allowed Russia to gain a foothold in Latin American politics, a result of Washington’s
negligence; under President Obama, the US should reverse those outcomes and demonstrate what liberal
democracy in action can truly accomplish.
US-Russia War is the greatest risk for nuclear extinction
Frumkin and Helfand 12 – *MD, DrPH, School of Public Health, University of Washington; **MD, Physicians for
Social Responsibility (Howard and Ira “A Prescription for Survival: Prevention of Nuclear War,” American Journal of Preventive
Medicine, March 2012, http://www.psr.org/nuclear-weapons/rxforsurvival.pdf)//Bwang
Still it is not the arsenals of these new nuclear powers that pose the greatest danger. Ninety-five percent of the nuclear
weapons in the world today remain in the arsenals of the US and Russia. Even under the New
START Treaty they are each allowed to keep 1550 deployed strategic nuclear weapons and
thousands of non deployed and all of their non strategic warheads. A 2002 study showed that if only 300 of the
weapons in the Russian arsenal were targeted at US cities, 70 to 100 million people would die.
In addition the attack would destroy the communications and transportation networks and the
rest of the social infrastructure on which modern societies depend. Over the following months the vast
majority of the population not killed in the initial attack would die of starvation, exposure and
disease. The US counterattack on Russia would cause the same level of devastation there.18¶ As in
the case of a regional war in South Asia, the direct effects of this large scale nuclear war would be only a
small part of the picture. If the full strategic arsenal allowed under New START were drawn into the
conflict, the resulting firestorms in the US and Russia would loft upwards of 150 million tons of
debris into the upper atmosphere. In a matter of days, temperatures would plummet across the globe by
an average of 8° C. In the interior regions of North America and Eurasia, temperatures would fall as much as 30° C. In the
temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere there would not be a single day free of frost for 3 years.19 20 Agriculture
would stop, ecosystems would collapse. The vast majority of the human race would starve to
death and it is possible that homo sapiens could become extinct.
Independently, the plan is key to energy cooperation—that solves
narcotrafficking
Benjamin 10 – (Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University,
PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic
Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, 2010, Brookings Institution book, “Cuba’s
Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation” Conclusion and Recommendations)//KY
Oil exploration is an inherently risky enterprise; there are always trade-offs between negatives and positives relating to energy
security, environmental integrity, and geostrategic considerations. The consensus arising from the studies and the analyses in this
book is that the creation of mutually beneficial trade and investment opportunities between the United States
and Cuba is long overdue. Throughout most of the twentieth century, Cuban infrastructure and economic development
were direct beneficiaries of commercial relations with the United States. This relationship was instrumental in providing Cuba with
access to advanced technologies and the signs of modernity that were unparalleled in Latin America and far beyond.¶ Once again,
the United States is presented with an opportunity that might serve as the basis of a new
relationship between the United States and Cuba. It holds out the possibility of enhancing the stability and
development of a region that is wrestling with questions of how and when it too might benefit from
engagement with a global economic development model. The question is whether the United States chooses to be at the center,
or to leave Cuba to seek some alternate path toward its goals.¶ Ironically, Cuban officials have invited American oil
companies to participate in developing their offshore oil and natural gas reserves. American oil, oil equipment,
and service companies possess the capital, technology, and operational know-how to explore, produce, and refine these resources in
a safe and responsible manner. Yet they remain on the sidelines because of our almost five-decades-old unilateral
political and economic
embargo. The United States can end this impasse by licensing American oil companies to participate
seizing the initiative on Cuba policy, the United States will be
strategically positioned to play an important role in the future of the island, thereby giving Cubans a
better chance for a stable, prosperous, and democratic future. The creation of stable and transparent commercial
relations in the energy sector will bolster state capacity in Cuba while enhancing U.S.
in the development of Cuba’s energy resources. By
geostrategic interests, and can help Cuba’s future leaders avoid illicit business practices, minimize
the influence of narcotrafficking enterprises, and stanch the outflow of illegal immigrants to the United States.¶
If U.S. companies are allowed to contribute to the development of Cuba’s hydrocarbon reserves, as well as the development of
alternative and renewable energy (solar, wind, and biofuels), it will give the United States the opportunity to
engage Cuba’s future leaders to carry out long-overdue economic reforms and development that will perhaps pave
the way to a more open and representative society while helping to promote Cuba as a stable partner and
leader in the region and beyond.¶ Under no circumstances is this meant to suggest that the United States should come to
dominate energy development policy in Cuba. The United States certainly has a role to play, but unlike its past relationship with
Cuba, its interaction and cooperation will be predicated on its ability to accept, at a minimum, that Cuba will be the dominant
partner in potential commercial ventures, and an equal partner in future diplomatic and interstate relations. Without a doubt Cuban
government actors are wary of the possibility of being dominated by the “colossus of the North,” but as Cuba’s energy policymakers
face the daunting reality of their nation’s energy future, it is abundantly clear that they possess the willingness and the capacity to
assiduously pursue sound policy objectives and initiatives that begin to address the island’s immediate and long-term challenges. In
the end, this course of action will have direct and tangible benefits for the people of Cuba, it neighbors, and beyond.
The impact is bioweapons and LNG attacks
Flynn and Bryan 01 (Stephen, Senior Fellow @ CFR and Commander in US Coast Guard, and Anthony, Dir. North-South
Center’s Caribbean Program, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation”
October 21, 2001, pg online @ CFR)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the linkages between
drug trafficking and terrorism are clear in countries like Colombia and Peru, and such connections have
similar potential in the Caribbean. The security of major industrial complexes in some Caribbean countries
is vital. Petroleum refineries and major industrial estates in Trinidad, which host more than 100
companies that produce the majority of the world’s methanol, ammonium sulphate, and 40
percent of U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are vulnerable targets. Unfortunately, as
experience has shown in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, terrorists are likely to strike at U.S. and
European interests in Caribbean countries. Security issues become even more critical when one considers the
possible use of Caribbean countries by terrorists as bases from which to attack the United States.
An airliner hijacked after departure from an airport in the northern Caribbean or the Bahamas can be flying over
South Florida in less than an hour. Terrorists can sabotage or seize control of a cruise ship after the
vessel leaves a Caribbean port. Moreover, terrorists with false passports and visas issued in the Caribbean
may be able to move easily through passport controls in Canada or the United States. (To help
counter this possibility, some countries have suspended "economic citizenship" programs to ensure that known terrorists have not
been inadvertently granted such citizenship.) Again, Caribbean
countries are as vulnerable as anywhere else to
the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
LNG attacks guarantee extinction
Lovins and Lovins, 01
(“Brittle Power,” 2001 http://www.rmi.org/images/other/EnergySecurity/S8203_BrPwrParts123.pdf)
LNG is less than half as dense as water, so a cubic meter of LNG (the usual unit of measure) weighs
just over
half a ton.1 LNG contains about thirty per-cent less energy per cubic meter than oil, but is
potentially far more hazardous.2 Burning oil cannot spread very far on land or water, but a cubic meter of spilled
LNG rapidly boils into about six hundred twenty cubic meters of pure natural gas, which in turn
mixes with surrounding air. Mixtures of between about five and fourteen percent natural gas in
air are flammable. Thus a single cubic meter of spilled LNG can make up to twelve thousand
four hundred cubic meters of flammable gas-air mixture. A single modern LNG tanker typically
holds one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters of LNG, equivalent to twenty-seven hundred million
cubic feet of natural gas. That gas can form between about twenty and fifty billion cubic feet of flammable
gas-air mixture—several hundred times the volume of the Great Pyramid of Cheops. About nine
percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about five
minutes.3 (It does not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight
Fahrenheit degrees hotter than the LNG, which it will therefore cause to boil violently.) The
resulting gas, however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow in a
cloud or plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least
three miles downwind from a large tanker spill within ten to twenty minutes.4 It might ultimately reach much
farther—perhaps six to twelve miles.5 If not ignited, the gas is asphyxiating. If ignited, it will
burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the 1937 Hindenberg
disaster but about a hundred times as big. Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and
by its radiant heat would cause third-degree burns and start fires a mile or two away.6 An LNG
fireball can blow through a city, creating “a very large number of ignitions and explosions across a
wide area. No present or foreseeable equipment can put out a very large [LNG]... fire.”7 The
energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic
meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
So do bioweapons
Ochs, 2 – MA in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University and Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park
(Richard, “Biological Weapons Must be Abolished Immediately,” Jun 9,
http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological
weapons, many without a known cure or
an extreme danger to the continued survival of life on earth. Any perceived military
value or deterrence pales in comparison to the great risk these weapons pose just sitting in vials in laboratories. While a
"nuclear winter," resulting from a massive exchange of nuclear weapons, could also kill off most
of life on earth and severely compromise the health of future generations, they are easier to
control. Biological weapons, on the other hand, can get out of control very easily, as the recent anthrax
attacks has demonstrated. There is no way to guarantee the security of these doomsday weapons
because very tiny amounts can be stolen or accidentally released and then grow or be grown to
horrendous proportions. The Black Death of the Middle Ages would be small in comparison to the potential damage
vaccine, are
bioweapons could cause. Abolition of chemical weapons is less of a priority because, while they can also kill millions of people
outright, their persistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or biological agents or more localized. Hence, chemical
weapons would have a lesser effect on future generations of innocent people and the natural environment. Like the Holocaust, once
a localized chemical extermination is over, it is over. With nuclear and biological weapons, the killing will probably
never end. Radioactive elements last tens of thousands of years and will keep causing cancers
virtually forever. Potentially worse than that, bio-engineered agents by the hundreds with no known
cure could wreck even greater calamity on the human race than could persistent radiation. AIDS
and ebola viruses are just a small example of recently emerging plagues with no known cure or vaccine. Can we imagine hundreds of
such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. Ironically, the Bush administration has just changed the U.S. nuclear
doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against threats upon allies by conventional weapons. The past doctrine allowed such use only as
a last resort when our nation’s survival was at stake. Will the new policy also allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this
slope? Against this tendency can be posed a rational alternative policy. To preclude possibilities of human
extinction, "patriotism" needs to be redefined to make humanity’s survival primary and
absolute. Even if we lose our cherished freedom, our sovereignty, our government or our Constitution, where there is life, there is
hope. What good is anything else if humanity is extinguished? This concept should be promoted to the center of national debate..
For example, for sake of argument, suppose the ancient Israelites developed defensive bioweapons of mass destruction when they
were enslaved by Egypt. Then suppose these weapons were released by design or accident and wiped everybody out? As bad as
slavery is, extinction is worse. Our generation, our century, our epoch needs to take the long view. We truly hold in our
hands the precious gift of all future life. Empires may come and go, but who are the honored custodians of life on
earth? Temporal politicians? Corporate competitors? Strategic brinksmen? Military gamers? Inflated egos dripping with
testosterone? How can any sane person believe that national sovereignty is more important than survival of the species? Now that
extinction is possible, our slogan should be "Where there is life, there is hope." No government, no economic system, no national
pride, no religion, no political system can be placed above human survival. The egos of leaders must not blind us. The adrenaline and
vengeance of a fight must not blind us. The game is over. If patriotism would extinguish humanity, then patriotism is the highest of
all crimes.
contention 3 is solvency
President has the authority to license American companies to develop offshore oil
Pascual and Huddleston 9 – Carlos, VP and Director of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute, and Vicki,
Visiting Fellow (“CUBA: A New policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement”, April,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2009/4/cuba/0413_cuba.pdf)
Licensing U.S. companies to provide services for the development of Cuban offshore oil and gas
would provide benefits to the United States and Cuba. (At this point it should be noted that the Secretary of
Treasury has always had and contin - ues to have the authority—as embodied in OFAC regulations—to
license any transaction found to be in the U.S. national interest. This power has been used over
the past fifteen years by various republican and Democratic administrations to license a variety
of commercial transactions between the United States and Cuba). The following are some of the reasons we might wish to
become engaged in developing Cuba’s offshore oil and gas. First, if U.S. and other reputable companies are involved in Cuba’s
offshore oil development it would reduce Cuba’s dependence on Venezuela for two-thirds of its oil imports. Second, it is
preferable that U.S. oil companies with high standards of transparency develop these resources
rather than, for example, Russia’s notoriously corrupt oligarchy. Third, U.S. influence in Cuba is likely to increase if U.S.
companies have an economic relationship on the ground. Fourth, U.S. companies have the technology and
expertise to develop Cuba’s offshore oil and gas.
US drilling companies have the capital, technology and know-how
Perales 10 (José Raúl, Senior Program Associate for the WOODROW WILSON CENTER LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM and
Americas director at the chamber of commerce *citing Pinon a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center’s
Cuban Research Institute at FIU, “The United States and Cuba: Implications of an Economic Relationship” August 2010
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_Cuba_Implications.pdf)//KY
With the help on international oil companies such as Spain’s Repsol, Norway’s Statoil Hydro, Venezuela’s PDVSA, and Brazil’s
Petrobras among others, Cuba is investing in oil production and refining infrastructure. Italian energy
conglomerate Eni is building a sixth-generation semi-submersible rig, leased to Spain’s Repsol and destined for Cuban waters in late
2010 that will help to mitigate energy demands in the island. This rig can drill in depths of up to 10,000 feet and will be working on
the North Cuba Basin approximately 65 miles south of Key West. In spite of these developments, Piñón argued it is in the best
interests of both Cuba and the United States to begin energy collaboration today. What is needed,
Piñón continued, is a bilateral policy that would contribute to Cuba’s energy independence as well as support a broader national
energy policy that embraces modernization of infrastructure, the balancing of hydrocarbons with renewable materials, and
conservation and environmental stewardship. He highlighted the case of the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, and
what would happen if such an incident happened in a Cuban oil rig (under current U.S. policy banning equipment and technological
sales to the island), as a reminder of the need for an energy dialogue between Cuba and the United States. Moreover, Piñón
contended that if U.S. companies were allowed to contribute to developing Cuba’s hydrocarbon reserves,
as well as renewable energy such as solar, wind, and sugarcane ethanol, it
would reduce the influence of autocratic
and corrupt governments on the island’s road toward self determination. Most importantly, it would
provide the United States and other democratic countries with a better chance of working with Cuba’s
future leaders to carry out reforms that would lead to a more open and representative society. American oil and oil
equipment and service companies have the capital, technology, and operational know-how to explore,
produce, and refine in a safe and responsible manner Cuba’s potential oil and natural gas reserves
US oil investment solves—ensures effective drilling and increased
influence
Huddleston* and Pascual**, 9
*visiting fellow at Brookings and co-director of the Brookings Project on U.S. Policy
Toward a Cuba in Transition deputy assistant secretary of defense for Africa at the Department of Defense **US ambassador to
Mexico former president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings (Vicki Huddleston and Carlos Pascual, April 2009 “CUBA: A
New policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement”
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2009/4/cuba/0413_cuba.pdf)//KY
licensing U.S. companies to provide services for the development of Cuban offshore oil and gas
would provide benefits to the United States and Cuba. (At this point it should be noted that the Secretary of Treasury has
always had and contin - ues to have the authority—as embodied in OFAC regulations—to license any transaction found to be in the
U.S. national interest. This power has been used over the past fifteen years by various r epublican and Democratic administrations to
license a variety of commercial transactions be - tween the United States and Cuba). The following are some of the reasons we might
wish to become engaged in developing Cuba’s offshore oil and gas. First, if U.S. and other reputable companies are
involved in Cuba’s offshore oil development it would reduce Cuba’s dependence on Venezuela for two-thirds of
its oil imports. Second, it is preferable that U.S. oil companies with high standards of transparency
develop these resources rather than, for example, russia’s notoriously corrupt oligarchy. Third, U.S. influence in
Cuba is likely to increase if U.S. companies have an economic relationship on the ground. Fourth,
U.S. companies have the technology and expertise to develop Cuba’s offshore oil and gas.
Cuba is willing to cooperate on spill response
Snow, 12 http://www.ogj.com/articles/2012/05/cuba-drilling-continues-as-us-groups-press-spill-response-need.html Cuba
drilling continues as US groups press spill response need WASHINGTON, DC, May 11 05/11/2012 By Nick Snow OGJ Washington
Editor//JH
This matters because a Cuban offshore oil spill potentially could do more damage than the Macondo
well spill, Reilly warned. Currents off Cuba more directly threaten US coasts, and marine habitats
there support US fishing, he explained. “Baby fish in Cuba become adult fish in Florida,” Whittle said. “We need to work
with Cubans to better understand what’s downstream.”¶ Noting that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently
developed models showing which US coastal areas would be damaged by a Cuban offshore oil spill, Whittle
said USCG also is leading multilateral discussions and working with US coastal states, and Cuban scientists have met with their
counterparts from the Bahamas in highly technical discussion under the International Maritime Organization’s aegis.¶
“Accountability rests with Cuba and the foreign oil companies it does business with,” Whittle said. “But it’s in the US interest to
make sure they get it right.Ӧ With Cuba on the cusp of its first offshore oil production, opportunities
escalate along with the risks, according to Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, a University of Nebraska political science
professor specializing in foreign policy, international development, and security. The extent to which it develops its own resources
will make it less dependent on Venezuela, and many in the country see potential for it to become a major
refining and transportation center, he indicated.¶ “Cubans are serious about developing their oil resources,” BenjaminAlvarado said. “They want to work with American companies and use American equipment. That reflects
the work Jorge R. Pinon [a former Amoco official who recently became a research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin’s
Jackson School of Geoscience’s Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy] and others have done to lay the
foundation.”
Cuba would say yes to US Investment – empirics prove
CDA 11 – Center for Democracy in the Americas, think tank specialized in latin American issues (Center for democracy in the
Americas, “As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest”,2011,
http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf, JL)
Cuba would welcome U.S. investment. At MINCEX, the staff discussed the impact of the embargo on
Cuba’s access to capital. Ministry staff said the embargo is harmful to Cuba’s ability to attract foreign
investments, capital, and technology. Cuban officials repeatedly emphasized that the country is open to any
foreign investor, and that Havana would welcome U.S. investment, subject to the same conditions it places on all
foreign investors. According to a senior official in Cuba’s diplomatic corps, when Cuba decided to drill off-shore in the
Gulf of Mexico in the mid-1990s, the first letters sent by Cuba’s government to invite foreign
concerns to participate went exclusively to U.S. energy companies. They declined interest, due to the embargo,
6.
and Cuba looked for partners elsewhere.
inherency
Embargo inhibits efforts to explore Cuban oil
BMI 13 – (Business Model International, “Cuba,” Americas Oil and Gas, August 2013, Issue 87, Proquest)//Bwang
Problems in acquiring rigs underscore the challenges facing nascent exploration in Cuba on the
back of continued US trade embargoes and sanctions. The restrictions prevent operators in the
country from securing equipment from the US. As a result, firms are required to import goods from
further afar, which according to some estimates adds an additional 20% to exploration expenses, which
are already steep giving the depth and geology. Current regulations prohibit the involvement of
US companies and use of equipment with more than 10% US content.
Embargo limits cooperation between Cuba and the US
Boom 12 – Director, Caribbean Biodiversity Program, and Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany, The New York Botanical Garden
(PhD Brian M., “Biodiversity without Borders,” Science Diplomacy, 8/14/12,
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders)//Bwang
Governments around the world routinely collaborate on shared environmental concerns bilaterally
or multilaterally, depending on the situation being addressed. Environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from
local to international levels often work in partnership with governments to solve environmental problems that extend
beyond national boundaries. Such public/private arrangements work well in most circumstances, and there
are many effective mechanisms in place to deal with challenges ranging from endangered species
and ecosystems to oil and toxic waste spills.
However, a lack of formal diplomatic relations can limit desirable cooperation on shared environmental
issues. The U.S. embargo on trade with Cuba—which was instituted in 1961 by the Kennedy administration in response
to Cuba’s nationalization of U.S. businesses’ properties in Cuba during the Cuban Revolution—and subsequent regulations
have thwarted the efforts of Cuban and U.S. scientists to collaborate on environmental or other
professional and academic matters.1 There is essentially no intergovernmental environmental
interaction between the United States and Cuba. The shared biodiversity of these countries, and in
some cases that of other nations in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico regions, suffers as a result.
oil spills advantage
drilling inevitable
Status quo drilling is inevitable – it’s only a question of whether we
can make it safe
Weisberg 12 professor of physical oceanography in the College of Marine Science at the University of South Florida St.
Petersburg. (Robert H., "Tampa Times: Tracking a potential Cuba oil spill," 2/5/12,
http://www.reefrelieffounders.com/drilling/2012/02/06/tampa-times-tracking-a-potential-cuba-oil-spill/)//AM
Two examples are provided, one for a period of time when virtual particles encountered East Coast beaches about five to seven days
after release, the other for a period of time when they did not. The differences are due to the local winds during these week-long
simulation intervals.¶ Recognizing that weather fronts regularly transit the Florida peninsula, with southerlies on the leading side
and northerlies on the trailing side, and that the interval between successive fronts is days to a week or so, we can expect that
a prolonged spill would likely bring oil to South Florida beaches. Regardless of these
simulations, simply recall the tar on South Florida beaches in the 1970s before the Clean Water
Act restricted offshore bilge pumping.¶ Whereas a vibrant economy requires energy, risks are inherent to oil
exploration and production. Such risks increase with deepwater drilling in swift currents, and
the swift Gulf Stream regularly transits the deepwater region north of Cuba. It is unfortunate
that we were unable to surmount the political and diplomatic issues pertaining to the present oil
exploration in Cuban waters because once the oil potential was identified years ago, drilling was
inevitable. Without readily achievable energy alternatives to hydrocarbons, other than nuclear, it is ever more important for the
United States to adopt a sound energy policy.
Cuba will inevitably drill—US engagement critical to prevent a spill
Bert and Clayton 12 – *2011-2012 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard; **Fellow for Energy and
National Security (Captain Melissa and Blake, “Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill”, CFR,
March 2012, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)//Bwang
Defending U.S. Interests
An oil well blowout in Cuban waters would almost certainly require a U.S. response. Without changes
in current U.S. law, however, that response would undoubtedly come far more slowly than is desirable.
The Coast Guard would be barred from deploying highly experienced manpower, specially designed
booms, skimming equipment and vessels, and dispersants. U.S. offshore gas and oil companies would also
be barred from using well-capping stacks, remotely operated submersibles, and other vital technologies.
Although a handful of U.S. spill responders hold licenses to work with Repsol, their licenses do not
extend to well capping or relief drilling. The result of a slow response to a Cuban oil spill would
be greater, perhaps catastrophic, economic and environmental damage to Florida and the Southeast.
Efforts to rewrite current law and policy toward Cuba, and encouraging cooperation with its government, could antagonize groups
opposed to improved relations with the Castro regime. They might protest any decision allowing U.S. federal agencies to assist Cuba
or letting U.S. companies operate in Cuban territory. However, taking sensible steps to prepare for a potential accident at an oil well
in Cuban waters would not break new ground or materially alter broader U.S. policy toward Cuba. For years, Washington has
worked with Havana on issues of mutual concern. The United States routinely coordinates with Cuba on search and rescue
operations in the Straits of Florida as well as to combat illicit drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. During the hurricane season,
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides Cuba with information on Caribbean storms. The
recommendations proposed here are narrowly tailored to the specific challenges that a Cuban oil
spill poses to the United States. They would not help the Cuban economy or military. What they would do is protect U.S.
territory and property from a potential danger emanating from Cuba. Cuba will drill for oil in its territorial waters
with or without the blessing of the United States. Defending against a potential oil spill requires a
modicum of advance coordination and preparation with the Cuban government, which need not go beyond spill-related matters.
Without taking these precautions, the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time
from Cuba.
Independently, hurricanes cause spills—faster reaction time via
lifting the embargo solves
Stephens et al. 11 – Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas (Sarah, “As Cuba plans to drill in the
Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest,” Center for Democracy in the Americas,
http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf)//Bwang
The BP disaster highlights the needs for a timely response to spills, the containment of damage,
and clean-up. There were approximately eight rigs capable of drilling relief wells to the depth of Macondo that were available in
the Gulf. If the blow-out occurred in Cuban territorial water, the embargo would not allow rigs capable of
drilling relief wells to be contracted by the operator (Repsol or CUPET, in the first instance). Companies under the
current rules cannot hire a U.S. firm to drill a relief well. In fact, legislation 50 introduced in the U.S.
Congress in 2010 would have penalized such activities under The Helms-Burton Act. 51 Of greater risk and
concern, however, is that spills are often more likely because of hurricane activity prevalent in the
Gulf, and are exacerbated by the role hurricanes play in spreading oil after a spill. 52 In the event of a spill, were
assistance from U.S. firms permitted, relief would take 24–48 hours to arrive on scene. Barring their
participation, however, it would take 30–50 days for help to arrive from Brazil, Northern Europe, Africa, or
S.E. Asia. In the case of the BP spill, as Lee Hunt said, “Admiral Landry 53 (8th Coast Guard District Commander) had personnel 24
hours x 7 days a week on phones to get booms; can Repsol or any subsequent operator do that?” 54 OFAC, the Treasury Department
office that administers and enforces trade sanctions, has authority to issue licenses on an emergency basis, but the BP spill
shows that the early, critical response needed would be made slower by the time required to
procure licenses. 55 The Obama administration argues that some firms are pre-cleared to respond. But experts say the current
scheme makes it impossible to pre-clear the correct technology, and that much more needs to be done—and can be done—under
current law.
Drilling is inevitable – US is key to best tech and expertise,
inspections don’t solve
Helman 11 Forbes staff writer, focusing on energy (Christopher, "U.S. Should Drop Cuba Embargo For Oil Exploration,"
12/12/11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/12/12/u-s-should-drop-cuba-embargo-for-oil-exploration/)//AM
In a few months Spanish oil company Repsol will start drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba, in a spot just 70
miles south of Key West. Soon Repsol–and its JV partners Norway’s Statoil and India’s ONGC–will be
joined by rigs from PetroVietnam, Malaysia’s Petronas and Venezuela’s PDVSA. But you won’t
see any U.S. companies there. Inexplicably, the U.S. maintains its economic embargo against the
Castro regime.¶ This wrong-headed policy represents a dangerous threat to the environment and a
huge missed opportunity to the U.S. oil industry. The U.S. embargo will do nothing to prevent
oil drilling from taking place in Cuban waters. But it will prevent that work from being done by
the most experienced companies with the highest-quality equipment. Norway’s Statoil is a proven operator
with a long history in the North Sea and the Gulf. The rest of those companies are just getting started offshore.¶ A
group of U.S. lawmakers in September urged Repsol (ticker: REPYY.PK) to call off its Cuba plans or
face the threat of U.S. lawsuits. Repsol wisely called that bluff.¶ At least the Obama administration is doing
something to ensure that Repsol’s drilling rig is up to snuff. According to an excellent article from Bloomberg today, Repsol’s
Chinese-built Scarabeo 9 rig will soon by boarded by four U.S. inspectors (two from the Coast Guard, two from the Dept. of Interior)
who will do what they can to check out the rig and watch some drills. But, according to the article, there will be real limits
to what the inspectors can inspect. They won’t get to check the rig’s all-important blowout
preventor, or the well casing or drilling fluids that are to be used. Though the U.S. inspectors will discuss
any concerns they have with Repsol, they will have no enforcement authority.
Obama’s pre-authorization of companies to clean up the spills isn’t
enough – cooperation still key
EDF 11 Environment Defense Fund ("The U.S., Cuba and oil diplomacy," December 2011, http://www.edf.org/oceans/us-cubaand-oil-diplomacy)//AM
It’s a sensitive political issue because if
there were a spill, U.S. technology might be prevented from being
quickly deployed due to the long-running U.S. embargo of Cuba. The United States has more than 5,000
wells in its territorial waters in the Gulf. But none are nearly as close to the Florida coast as the proposed sites off Havana.¶ Common
sense vs. politics¶ At our urging, the Obama Administration has agreed to pre-authorize some U.S.-
based companies to assist in preventing and containing major oil spills in Cuban waters. “That’s
a start,” says Whittle, “but we need a more comprehensive policy, with direct government-togovernment engagement.”¶ “The United States has strong spill-response agreements with
Canada, Mexico and Russia,” Whittle adds. “We need to make sure Cuba has the same
safeguards and rigorous oversight. We can’t let politics get in the way of common-sense actions.”
Status quo solves Cuban oil drilling—foreign firms
Omstad 09 senior international affairs and diplomacy author for US News. (Thomas Omestad, 4/1/2009, “Cuba's Hopes for
Major Oil Discoveries”, U.S. News & World Report Pg. 50 Vol. 146 No. 3) //KY
The lure of offshore oil has drawn not only the Spanish, Indians, and
Norwegians but also firms from
Malaysia, Vietnam, Venezuela, and Brazil. Says a senior diplomat from one country partnered with Havana, "The
Cubans are very hopeful, and so are we." Venezuela's state oil company has guided the renovation of one of Cuba's aging refineries
and has agreed to expand the capacity of that facility and one more, as well as build a new refinery at the port of Mantanzas. As
Cuba's key ally, Venezuela has also thrown it an energy lifeline, shipping about 90,000 barrels per day under easy terms that
amounted to a roughly $3 billion subsidy last year. Russian firms have pledged to help Cupet find, extract, and
refine oil. And Petrobras, the Brazilian state oil giant known for skillful deep-water drilling, also is investing
in Cuba. At an oil deal signing ceremony here last year, Cuban President Raúl Castro wondered aloud whether Petrobras would
hit oil. "Don't worry, Raúl," replied Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. "We're going to find it here, and
we're going to transform it into energy." Cuba's dealings with outside oil firms have not been all rosy, though. Canada's
Sherritt International last year relinquished its offshore oil blocks to the Cuban government before it started drilling. A cashstrapped Cuba fell behind on payments to both Sherritt and another Canadian firm, Pebercan, by a total of more than $500 million.
In January, Cuba told Pebercan it was terminating their agreement prematurely. And observers are waiting to see how much the
global oil price drop hinders plans for expensive, deep-water drilling in Cuban waters. Though Americans may not join in, the
prospecting on the Cuban side of the Gulf of Mexico has already become controversial. Florida Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson seized on
the issue last year, urging that a 32-year-old boundary accord evenly dividing the sea between the Florida Keys and Cuba be
scrapped. Nelson charged that a Cuban oil spill could "desecrate part of Florida's unique environment and devastate its $50 billion
tourism-driven economy." Cuban officials vow that offshore drilling will meet "the highest standards available" for environmental
protection.
Russia is going to return – leaving was just a question of acquiring
drilling equipment
Chernyshova 13 – Editior about Russian news for Bricspost.com (Daria Chernyshova, “Russia halts Cuban oil exploration”,
June 6, 2013,Bricspost.com,http://thebricspost.com/russia-halts-cuban-oil-exploration/#.UczZLvlnHvw, JL)
Russia, however, plans to return in a years time estimating to drill 6,500 metres below
the sea
floor. Zarubezhneft currently cooperates with the state oil company Cubapetroleo and in 2009 the companies signed
four contracts on Cuban oil fields exploration and development. The withdrawal comes as the
Norwegian company that owns the drilling platform they have been leasing, the Songa Mercur, said it would
be leaving Cuban waters in July for another contract.
Repsol has a history of mismanagement and oil spills
DeMaraban 13 - Degree in Journalism from the University of Texas (Alex DeMaraban “Second spill in two winters for
Spanish company Repsol on Alaska's North Slope”, April 9, 2013, http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130409/second-spilltwo-winters-spanish-company-repsol-alaskas-north-slope, JL)
Last winter, a blowout at a Repsol rig spewed more than 100,000 gallons of drilling mud onto the
snow. Spanish oil major Repsol reported its second North Slope spill in two winters, after a hose
ruptured during a flow test of an exploratory well early Tuesday morning, spilling an estimated 6,600 gallons of a
mixture containing crude oil and other fluids, according to state environmental regulators. The so-called Qugruk 6 well was shut-in
following the 2:30 a.m. spill, said a report from the Department of Environmental Conservation, relying on information from
Repsol. "It wasn't a big event," said Cathy Foerster, a state oil and gas commissioner. "They had a hose rupture. How many times
have you watered your garden and had a leak in your hose? It wasn't catastrophic and it ruptured into containment, except a little bit
that sprayed into snow. That's what shovels are for." Repsol spending billions on drilling The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation
Commission does not have regulatory authority because the spill did not result from a loss of well control. Repsol called the
commission to let officials know what happened, said Foerster. DEC has regulatory authority over the spill. Repsol, with leases on
the North Slope and the Arctic Ocean off Alaska, has proposed spending billions of dollars in Alaska as part of a long-term drilling
program. The spill occurred on the Colville River Delta 18 miles northeast of the village of Nuiqsut, the same area where Repsol
suffered a blowout that spewed natural gas and drilling mud during the company's first drilling season in Alaska last winter. Repsol
contractor Weatherford International was conducting the flow-back test when the transfer hose -- connecting the well to a 17,600gallon storage tank -- failed. The rupture occurred when the "hose was under pressure causing the oil to spray out onto snowcovered tundra," noted the report, issued Tuesday afternoon. In addition to crude oil, the fluid mixture included fluids, diesel and
water. There have not been any reports of impact to wildlife, and the company will develop a wildlife hazing plan to keep animals
away from the spill. "Additional product was released when the fluids in the storage tank drained back through the ruptured hose.
The majority of the product was contained within the secondary containment area, and a light to moderate mist over two-thirds of
an acre of snow-covered tundra has been reported by Repsol," the report said. Repsol has removed most of the oil from the
secondary containment area using an on-site vacuum truck. Response crews will continue 24-hour operations, the statement said.
The Environmental Conservation Department will send a representative to the site on Wednesday to develop cleanup plans. Worse
spill last winter Madrid-based Repsol got a rude introduction to Alaska last winter. The company suffered
a blowout during exploratory drilling after its contractor, Nabors Drilling, hit a gas pocket 2,500 feet down at a nearby
well known as Qugruk 2 [3], spewing an undetermined amount of natural gas, water and more than
100,000 gallons of drilling mud -- [4] a mixture of water and lubricant that helps clear the hole of debris -- onto the
snow.
Cuban drilling is inevitable—there should be greater engagment
Bolstad 11 – Environment, food safety and agriculture reporter for McClatchy Newspapers
(Erika, “Cuba shows U.S. its response plans in case of oil spill,” McClatchy, 12/12/11,
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/12/12/132877/cuba-shows-us-its-responseplans.html#.Ud7-5vm1Fsk)//Bwang
WASHINGTON — As
Cuba prepares to embark on a new round of exploratory offshore drilling, U.S.
officials are slightly more enlightened about the island nation's plans in the event of a
catastrophic oil spill on the scale of last year's Deepwater Horizon explosion.¶ Several Caribbean countries — including the
United States and Cuba — met last week in the Bahamas to talk about response plans. U.S. officials
got an opportunity to see the Cuban disaster-response plans; Cuba already has participated in a mock
response drill in Trinidad with the Spanish oil company that's doing the first round of drilling. That company, Repsol, also
agreed to allow U.S. inspectors from the Interior Department to look at the rig that will be doing the
drilling.¶ Sarah Stephens, the executive director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas, said she was encouraged that
Cuban and American officials had met, along with other nations that have an interest in regional oil production.¶ "There should
be a lot more direct conversation and collaboration between the U.S. and Cuba and others about
the rig, because it's inevitable," she said.¶ U.S. officials say their priority is mitigating any potential
threat to the United States and its territorial waters from oil drilling in Cuban waters . They say
they've done nothing to facilitate oil drilling in Cuban waters, and that their main goal is to be prepared for the possibility of a spill
and how they'd respond to it.¶ "The United States will continue to engage multilaterally to advance
regional collaboration and to ensure responsible stewardship of the Gulf of Mexico and the
Caribbean Sea," the State Department said in a statement issued before the meeting in the Bahamas.
Countries will inevitability drill in Cuba
Sotolongo 11 – Associate Editor, Downstream Newsletter Group at Hart Energy Publishing
(Kristie, “Cuban Oil Rush Beckons U.S. Embargo Reform,” E&P, 7/27/11,
http://www.epmag.com/Production/Cuban-Oil-Rush-Beckons-US-EmbargoReform_86074)//Bwang
The potential to discover between five and 20 billion barrels of oil in the deep waters off the
island’s northwest coast – about 60 miles from Key West – has attracted the attention of American
businessmen and politicians, and talk of lifting the embargo has intensified.¶ “Up until now, the
embargo did not really impact us in a substantive, strategic way. Oil is different. It’s something we need and
want,” Kirby Jones, founder of the Washington-based U.S.-Cuba Trade Association, told The Guardian (U.K.) in 2008.¶
“Cuba’s oil will be explored; there’s no question about that – it’s whether the U.S. will
share it or maintain the embargo and let it go to China, India Norway.”
squo insufficient
US Status quo efforts are not sufficient to combat oil spill
AP 12 – Associated Press (“Experts: United States ill-prepared for oil spill off Cuba”, January 30, 2012,
http://blog.al.com/wire/2012/01/experts_united_states_ill-prep.html, JL)
MIAMI — The U.S.
is not ready to handle an oil spill if drilling off the Cuban coast should go awry but can be better
prepared with monitoring systems and other basic steps, experts told government officials Monday. The comments at a
congressional subcommittee hearing in the Miami Beach suburb of Sunny Isles come more than a week after a huge oil rig leased by Spanish energy
giant Repsol YPF arrived in Cuban waters to begin drilling a deep water exploratory well. Similar development is expected off the Bahamas next year,
but decades
of tense relations between the U.S. and Cuba makes cooperation in protecting the
Florida Straits particularly tricky. With memories of the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico still fresh, state and federal
officials fear even the perception of any oil flowing toward Florida beaches could devastate an economy that claims about $57 billion from tourism.
Florida International University Professor John Proni told officials to be proactive. He is leading a consortium of researchers on U.S. readiness to
handle any spill. "For the last few years, my colleagues and I have been visiting Washington to say the best time to start preparing for an oil spill is
before it happens," Proni told leaders of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, in a hotel-turned-hearing room overlooking
turquoise waters. Proni said he has seen little action from officials in Washington, though they responded positively. U.S. officials have turned attention
to preventing future spills since the Deepwater Horizon rig leased by the energy company BP exploded in April 2010, causing the well to blow out and
unleashing millions of gallons of oil in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude washed up on pristine shoreline, soiled wildlife and left a region dependent on tourist
dollars scrambling to rebuild its image. Coast Guard officials said Monday they didn't know if drilling off Cuba had begun. Experts testified current
estimates have surface oil — in event of any spill off Cuba — moving up to 3 mph due to the Gulfstream, but that the fast-moving current would make it
difficult for any crude quickly crossing the Florida Straits. Rear Adm. William Baumgartner, commander of the Coast Guard region that covers the
Florida Straits, said a likely scenario would have oil spreading and reaching U.S. waters in six to 10 days. Proni said he wants a system that can monitor
changes in underwater sounds to immediately alert U.S. officials to a spill or other unusual activity. He also wants the U.S. to invest in developing
better computer models to predict oil movement and to assess the existing ecosystem and the type of oil Cuba possesses. That way, experts can better
the fast-moving water would make it
difficult to burn the oil or strain it, as was done to halt the spread of the Deepwater Horizon spill.
pinpoint any possible damage and find out if it came from Cuban wells. Proni said
He added that more research is needed on the risks of using chemicals that break down the oil into tiny droplets.
SQUO licenses are not enough to resolve oil spill—lifting embargo key
Stephens and Colvin 11 (Sarah Stephens is Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas, Jake Colvin
is Vice President for Global Trade Issues at the National Foreign Trade Council, “US-Cuba policy, and the race for oil drilling”,
September 29, 2011, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/184661-us-cuba-policy-and-the-race-for-oildrilling#ixzz2XHnVv3mB, JL)
In virtually every other country in the world, developments like these would prompt high-level discussions about how to exploit
these resources safely or to anticipate a crisis were a disaster to strike. Experts who have studied the currents say a spill in
Cuban waters would send 90 percent of the oil into the Keys and up the East Coast of Florida. But
the embargo leaves Florida’s sensitive coastal resources defenseless. Due to the fact that the drilling involves Cuba,
American companies and workers cannot lend their expertise to what could be a risky operation. U.S. economic sanctions
prevent our private sector from helping Cuba drill safely and paralyze the U.S. government, which
ought to be convening bilateral discussions on best practices and coordinating disaster response. In fact, the U.S. has no
emergency response agreement with Cuba for oil spills. While some specific licenses have been granted to
permit U.S. firms to conduct limited transactions with Cuba, current sanctions bar the United States from
deploying the kind of clean-up equipment, engineers, spare parts for blow-out prevention,
chemical dispersants, and rigs to drill relief wells that would be needed to address an oil crisis
involving Cuba.
Company-specific permits can’t solve – companies won’t apply and even if they did
response time is too slow
Reilly and Cayten 12 (William K. AND Megan, "Why the U.S. should work with Cuba on oil drilling," 2/17/12,
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-02-17/opinions/35445244_1_blowout-preventer-scarabeo-deepwater-horizon)//AM
The U.S. government can, and should, make available the resources that the organizations
involved with Scarabeo need to do their job well. It should also be prepared, should something go wrong, to
protect the waters and beaches of Florida and the southeast United States from a potential disaster. In the event of an
emergency, the U.S. government would likely do that. But the help might well come too late.¶
The private sector needs considerable time to ready an effective response. Engineers need to understand
the rig, well characteristics and marine environment. Companies need to prepare detailed
contingency plans and to allocate appropriate equipment. The only capping stacklicensed for
use in Cuba in the event of a blowout on the ocean floor, for instance, is in Scotland, a week’s trip
away, and has no licensed vessel or crew. Certain resources may not be available if summoned at
the last minute.¶ The Commerce and Treasury departments have issued some licenses to spillresponse providers and are reviewing others. As welcome as that is, it is not sufficient. The application process and
the threat of very significant fines deter many companies from even considering the prospect.
The private sector needs a clear signal from the executive branch in order to move forward.¶ s
plan solves spills
The embargo prevents effective cleanup in the event of a Cuban oil
spill
Bert, 12 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515 Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill Policy
Innovation Memorandum No. 15 Authors: Captain Melissa Bert, USCG, 2011-2012 Military Fellow, U.S.Coast Guard, and Blake
Clayton, Fellow for Energy and National Security, March//JH
The imminent drilling of Cuba's first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large-scale oil spill
in Cuban waters washing onto U.S. shores. Washington should anticipate this possibility by
implementing policies that would help both countries' governments stem and clean up an oil
spill effectively. These policies should ensure that both the U.S. government and the domestic oil industry are operationally
and financially ready to deal with any spill that threatens U.S. waters. These policies should be as minimally disruptive as possible to
the country's broader Cuba strategy.¶ The Problem¶ A Chinese-built semisubmersible oil rig leased by Repsol, a Spanish oil company,
arrived in Cuban waters in January 2012 to drill Cuba's first exploratory offshore oil well. Early estimates suggest that Cuban
offshore oil and natural gas reserves are substantial—somewhere between five billion and twenty billion barrels of oil and upward of
eight billion cubic feet of natural gas. Although the United States typically welcomes greater volumes of crude oil coming from
countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a surge in Cuban oil production
would complicate the United States' decades-old effort to economically isolate the Castro regime.¶ Deepwater drilling off
the Cuban coast also poses a threat to the United States. The exploratory well is seventy miles off
the Florida coast and lies at a depth of 5,800 feet. The failed Macondo well that triggered the
calamitous Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010 had broadly similar features, situated fortyeight miles from shore and approximately five thousand feet below sea level. A spill off Florida's coast could ravage the state's $57
billion per year tourism industry.¶ Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's
unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a
strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout.
Moreover, the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm
Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring
oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such
fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only, effective method to respond to a spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants.
If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill, uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or
skimmed, which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective.¶ Repsol has been forthcoming in
disclosing its spill response plans to U.S. authorities and allowing them to inspect the drilling rig, but the Russian and Chinese
companies that are already negotiating with Cuba to lease acreage might not be as cooperative. Had Repsol not volunteered to have
the Cuba-bound drilling rig examined by the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to certify that
it met international standards, Washington would have had little legal recourse.¶ The complexity of U.S.-Cuba
relations since the 1962 trade embargo complicates even limited efforts to put in place a spill
response plan. Under U.S. law and with few exceptions, American companies cannot assist the
Cuban government or provide equipment to foreign companies operating in Cuban territory.
Without legal reform, the US cannot respond to a spill and the
environmental consequences would be disastrous
Bert, 12 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515 Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill Policy
Innovation Memorandum No. 15 Authors: Captain Melissa Bert, USCG, 2011-2012 Military Fellow, U.S.Coast Guard, and Blake
Clayton, Fellow for Energy and National Security, March//JH
An oil well blowout in Cuban waters would almost certainly require a U.S. response. Without
changes in current U.S. law, however, that response would undoubtedly come far more slowly
than is desirable. The Coast Guard would be barred from deploying highly experienced
manpower, specially designed booms, skimming equipment and vessels, and dispersants. U.S.
offshore gas and oil companies would also be barred from using well-capping stacks, remotely operated
submersibles, and other vital technologies. Although a handful of U.S. spill responders hold licenses to
work with Repsol, their licenses do not extend to well capping or relief drilling. The result of a
slow response to a Cuban oil spill would be greater, perhaps catastrophic, economic and
environmental damage to Florida and the Southeast.
Sanctions prohibit effective responses to oil spills.
Bert, 11 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/cubas-oil-plans-raise-red-flags/p26910 Cuba's Oil Plans Raise Red Flags Author: Captain
Melissa Bert, USCG, 2011-2012 Military Fellow, U.S.Coast Guard December 24, 2011 Miami Herald//JH
Scarabeo-9 is en route Cuban to waters, 70 miles from Florida. This mobile offshore drilling unit (MODU) is a Chinese-built,
Spanish-owned oil rig set to drill for oil along Cuba's northern coast. Cuba is counting on offshore drilling to wean itself from
Venezuelan energy dependence. Experts estimate Cuba's continental shelf contains 5 to 20 billion barrels of oil and more than 8
billion cubic feet of natural gas.¶ Cuba's plans raise red flags. The Scarabeo-9 drilling scenario is a reprise
of Deepwater, with similar drilling depth and distance from U.S. shores, and a worst-case
discharge even higher than Macondo. An oil blowout in Cuban waters could send crude to the
beaches of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.¶ Repsol, a Spanish company, is running the show. Unlike BP,
Repsol is not subject to U.S. law. Although Repsol has a strong record, it is not accountable to U.S. citizens in a disaster. Another
cause for concern is that U.S. sanctions against Cuba prohibit U.S. companies from drilling in Cuba,
supplying equipment to or effecting safety regulations in Cuba, or even responding to an oil spill
in its waters.¶ Cuba's pollution response capability is unknown. The Deepwater Horizon
response was the largest and most sophisticated in history, but was conducted on site before the
oil reached shore, with hundreds of vessels, thousands of responders, and state of the art
technology. Waiting until oil coats America's beaches is too late.
A proactive policy is needed to fight oil spills
Sun Sentinel 12 (Major news source in Florida specialized on the Southern part, “New oil spill plan needed”, April 22, 2012,
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-04-22/news/fl-cuba-oil-editorial-dl-20120422_1_deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-oil-spill, JL)
a major oil spill off the coast of Cuba could be a disaster for Florida. What's up for more
up
booms and dropping dispersants onto massive oil slicks threatening South Florida's shores would be a painful reprise of the 2010
Deepwater Horizon debacle that devastated the Gulf Coast. Such tactics, however, are really the last line of defense in
bulwarking shorelines and waterways against unwanted oil . And, unfortunately, they are susceptible to winds, currents and
tides— and aren't guaranteed to succeed. The first line of defense begins with a proactive
There's little debate that
serious discussion are plans to contain the spill, and to minimize the ecological damage from an oil spill reaching our shores. Setting
policy of environmental and safety cooperation between the United States, Cuba and the foreign
companies operating the platform. Exploratory drilling in an area that is said to contain over 5 billion barrels of oil and 8.6 billion
cubic feet of natural gas has already begun, and time is of the essence since chances for major mishaps in
deepwater operations usually occur during exploratory drilling. What's problematic for many environmentalists
and U.S. policymakers is that the sites of these new wells are less than 60 miles from Key West. Their being so close to Gulf Stream means an oil rig
mishap could produce an ecological disaster along hundreds of miles of Florida coastline. The good
news is there has been progress in forging a working relationship, and a plan of action, to bolster environmental cooperation. That's a major
accomplishment given the past bitter political history — and current friction — between the United States and Cuba. In the past, Washington and
Havana have found ways to cooperate on immigration issues and curbing drug trafficking. Protecting the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico from a blowout is no less important. The initial oil-spill containment plan unveiled recently by the U.S. Coast Guard emphasizes shielding inlets
and intracoastal waterways to protect more vulnerable parts of South Florida's coastlines over the region's beaches. That approach won't sit well with
local businesses and interest groups that rely on the beaches to fuel the region's vibrant tourism industry . The dismay among tourist officials is
understandable, but putting priorities on Florida's most sensitive environs is necessary. The region's bays, lagoons and mangrove forests are far more
susceptible to the toxic impact of an oil spill. Those ecological nooks and crannies, and spawning zones, would be more difficult to clean than a beach.
the federal government would muster all the resources at its command to protect all
of South Florida's rich and diverse environment from a massive spill. The real world is a very different place.
In an ideal world,
Lifting restrictions and engaging in bilateral talks solve any chance of
an oil spill
Whittle 12- Environmental Law Proffessor at Wake Forest University, B.A from Colarodo Unviersity (Daniel J. Whittle, “Bridging the Gulf
Finding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba”, 2012,
http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf, JL)
Therefore, EDF proposes policy recommendations along two dimensions: those that the U.S. government should
take unilaterally and those that require the U.S. government to engage in meaningful dialogue and cooperation with the Cuban
government. In this report, we recommend the following: Unilaterally, the United States should revise its
licensing process to ensure that the resources of U.S. private companies and personnel could be
deployed in a timely and comprehensive manner should an oil spill occur in Cuba. On a bilateral level, the
U.S. and Cuban governments should create a written agreement similar to existing agreements with
neighbors like Mexico and Canada. Such an agreement should stipulate proactive joint planning
aimed at maximizing preparedness and response to prevent or mitigate the consequences of an offshore oil
spill. (This agreement would supplement any regional, multi-lateral agreement that may result from ongoing discussions described
in this report.) U.S. and Cuban government agencies should fund and facilitate collaborative research
onbaseline science of shared marine resources in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The high level of
connectivity between the two countries underscores that developing baseline science is an imperative that
should not wait for a disaster to occur. These and other recommendations in this report are pragmatic and fully
consistent with those put forth by the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling. The cochair of the commission and former U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator, William K. Reilly, concurs that
environmental cooperation is as critical to U.S. interests as it is to Cuba’s. “Our priority with Cuba should be to make safety and
environmental response the equivalent of drug interdiction and weather exchange information, both ofwhich we have very open,
cooperative policies with the Cuban government,” Reilly said.1
No contingency plan to deal with spill—embargo magnifies spill
impact
Booth 12 (William BoothEditor for the Washington Post, March 01, 2012, “Cuba drills for oil, but U.S. unprepared for spill”,
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-03-01/world/35449848_1_cuba-basin-jorge-pinon-scarabeo, JL)
As energy companies from Spain, Russia and Malaysia line up to drill for oil in Cuban waters 60 miles from the Florida Keys ,
U.S. agencies
are struggling to cobble together emergency plans to protect fragile reefs, sandy beaches and a
multibillion-dollar tourism industry in the event of a spill. Drawing up contingency plans to confront a possible spill is
much more difficult because of the economic embargo against Cuba. U.S. law bars most American
companies — including oil services and spill containment contractors — from conducting
business with the communist island. The embargo, now entering its 50th year, also limits direct government-togovernment talks. In the vacuum, a Coast Guard admiral in Miami and a dozen technocrats from Cuba and the United States have begun to
quietly engage in an awkward partnership of necessity to protect their coastlines, separated by politics but united by the mighty Gulf Stream. This is
a case of Cold War ideology colliding with 21st-century environmental policy, and it is the
environment that is at risk,” said Lee Hunt, president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors. The need to plan a
detailed response for a possible spill in Cuban waters — including who pays for what — is driven by memories of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster
in the Gulf of Mexico, where close to 5 million barrels of crude flowed unabated for three months off the Louisiana coast. The Deepwater Horizon
accident, the largest maritime spill ever, involved a massive response by the U.S. government to contain what experts concluded was a preventable
imagine something like
that happening in the waters between two countries that don’t even talk to each other ,” said Jorge
disaster caused by misjudgments by three major oil drilling companies: BP, Halliburton and Transocean. “Now
Pinon, a former president of Amoco Oil Latin America and now a research fellow at the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy at
the University of Texas. The
Deepwater Horizon liabilities could exceed $43 billion. Containing the oil in Louisiana
total gross domestic product is $50 billion. Pinon said that Cuba, with a tiny navy and a
thin coast guard, has only 5 percent of the resources needed to contain a spill approaching the size of
the Deepwater Horizon disaster. “The U.S. Coast Guard is terrified,” he said. 5 billion barrels Last month, Repsol, a Spanish oil and
employed 5,000 vessels. Cuba’s
gas company, using a state-of-the-art, Norwegian-designed, Chinese-built, semi-submersible rig called Scarabeo 9, began drilling the first in a series of
deep-water exploratory wells in the Florida Straits, at a cost of $500,000 a day.According to a 2004 study by the U.S. Geological Survey, there could be
5 billion barrels of undiscovered oil reserves in the north Cuba basin. While some U.S. lawmakers might not like it, Cuba has every right to drill for oil
in its own waters. Congressional Republicans representing Cuban American communities in Florida say the Obama administration should have
imposed sanctions and threatened foreign companies such as Repsol from doing business in Cuba. “This is a disaster waiting to happen, and the Obama
administration has abdicated its role in protecting our environment and national security by allowing this plan to move forward,” said Rep. Ileana RosLehtinen (R-Fla.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Ros-Lehtinen and her colleagues sponsored legislation to deny visas to anyone
who helps the Cubans advance their oil drilling plans. They have also sought to punish Repsol. “We need to figure out what we can do to inflict
maximum pain, maximum punishment, to bleed Repsol of whatever resources they may have if there’s a potential for a spill that would affect the U.S.
coast,” Rep. David Rivera (R-Fla.) told in January a congressional subcommittee that oversees the U.S. Coast Guard. An unusual coalition of U.S.
environmentalists and oil industry executives have joined forces to push the White House to treat the threat of a spill seriously, while tamping down the
anti-Castro rhetoric. “There is no point in opposing drilling in Cuba. They are drilling. And so now we should be working together to prevent disaster,”
said Daniel Whittle, Cuba program director of the Environmental Defense Fund, who has been brokering meetings between Cuban and U.S. officials.
Environmentalists applauded the announcement last week of an agreement between the United States and Mexico to allow for joint inspection of rigs
operating in the Gulf of Mexico and the establishment of a common set of safety protocols between the two countries. Nothing approaching this exists
with the Cubans.Because of the embargo, the talks between Cubans, Repsol and the Coast Guard are taking place in the Bahamas and Curacao — not
Havana or Miami — under the auspices of the U.N. International Maritime Organization, paid for by charitable donations from environmental groups
and oil industry associations. A single Florida company is licensed to deliver oil dispersants to Havana. But there are no U.S. aircraft with contracts or
permission to fly over Cuban waters. The current plan is to retrofit and deploy aging crop dusters from Cuban farms to dump the dispersants. Obstacles
to a cleanupRepsol operates leases in U.S. waters in the Gulf of Mexico and has a staff of 300 based in Houston. But because of the embargo, none of
the Houston staff is permitted to have anything to do with the Repsol operation in Cuba. Any
assistance would have to come
from Madrid. Because of the embargo, and to protect Repsol from economic sanctions, no more than 10 percent of the
components on the Scarabeo 9 drilling rig may be manufactured in the United States. One of those components is the blowout preventer, a
vital piece of safety equipment manufactured by National Oilwell Varco in Houston — whose employees cannot
service the equipment while it is in Cuban waters. If a blowout occurred, Repsol would have to
await delivery of a capping stack, which would have to travel from Scotland to Cuba and then out to the rig.
Experts predict it would take a week at minimum. Cleanup crews arriving from the United States would be allowed to skim
oil from the water and collect surplus oil gushing from the rig, but they’d have to take it someplace. The question is where? The U.S. tankers can’t
enter Cuban territorial waters, and if they do, they are prohibited from returning to the United
States for six months. The recovered oil would belong to Cuba, and so it can’t travel to the
United States.
Embargo makes containing spill impossible—spill threatens biodiversity across the US coast
Almeida 12 (Roy Almeida He graduated from the US Naval Academy in 1999 with a B.S in Naval Architecture and spent 6.5
years on active duty as a Surface Warfare Officer. He worked for a year as a Roughneck/Rig Manager trainee on board the drillship
Discoverer Americas, “Drilling Off Cuba, and How the Embargo Could be Very Costly for the US”, May 18, 2012,
http://gcaptain.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/, JL)
This means: 1) The Scarabeo 9’s blowout preventer, the most crucial piece of well control equipment on board
was made by a US company. The trade embargo prohibits OEM spare parts or repair items to
be sold to Repsol. Also, technical expertise from the OEM cannot be provided. 2) The “capping stacks” which have
the rig
been created by Helix ESG, BP, the MWCC and others, are not authorized for use in Cuban waters. This means, if an uncontrolled
blowout does occur, these essential piece of equipment will not be available until authorization is given and a delivery method
determined. This is a significant issue considering the BP “capping stack” weighs somewhere around a half
million pounds. Reports indicate there are no cranes in Cuba capable of lifting such a piece of gear that
massive on to a ship. 3) The deepwater drilling experts in the US are not authorized to provide assistance to Cuba in case of a
disaster. 4) All the training programs that have been developed post-Macondo are not available for Cuban
nationals. In fact, any training that will result in a professional license or certification is off limits to Cubans. 5) Tyvek suits,
the essential work-wear for HAZMAT cleanup, are not authorized to be brought into Cuba due
to supposed military applications. In addition… The Scarabeo 9 was classed by DNV on 19 August 2011 in Singapore,
and she is due for her 1-year “checkup” on 19 August 2012, with a 3 month window on either side of that date. As expected, DNV has
told us that there will be no US-based employees involved. What sort of legal, or commercial implications might DNV face when they
actually DO send someone to inspect the Scarabeo 9? We asked the Bahamian registry, which is the flag state for the rig, the same
question about a week ago and received no response. I spoke with DNV today and they are still researching the matter. In short
however, Cuba’s access to containment systems, offshore technology, and spill response equipment
is severely restricted by the US embargo, yet if a disaster occurs offshore, not only will Cuban
ecosystems be severely impacted, but those of the Florida Keys, and US East Coast. If disaster strikes
offshore Cuba, US citizens will have nobody else to blame except the US Government because outdated policies are impacting the
ability to prepare sufficiently for real-life environmental threats. Considering Cuba waters are home to the highest
concentration of biodiversity in the region and is a spawning ground for fish populations that migrate north into US
waters, a Cuban oil spill could inflict unprecedented environmental devastation if not planned for in
advance.
Embargo is the only thing in the way of preventing oil spill clean up
Zakaria 11 (Fareed ZakariaB.A. from Yale College and a Ph.D. from Harvard University.
He has received honorary degrees
from numerous universities including Brown, the University of Miami, and Oberlin College, “Why our Cuba embargo could lead to
another Gulf oil disaster”, September 19 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/19/why-our-cuba-policy-couldlead-to-another-gulf-oil-spill/, JL)
Can you remember what explosive crisis America and the world was fixated on last summer? It wasn't the deficit, jobs or Europe. It was an oil disaster.
Remember the BP spill? Tons of crude gushing into the Gulf of Mexico? Well, in the weeks and months that followed, there was a lot of discussion
about how to make sure it didn't happen again. But what struck me this week is that we have a new
dangerous drilling zone right
on our doorstep - Cuba. Estimates suggest that the island nation has reserves of anywhere from 5 billion to
20 billion barrels of oil. The high end of those estimates would put Cuba among the top dozen oil producers in the world. Predictably,
there's a global scramble for Havana. A Chinese-constructed drilling rig is owned by an Italian oil company and is on its way to Cuban waters. Spain's
Repsol, Norway's Statoil and India's ONGC will use the 53,000 ton rig to explore for oil. Petro giants from Brazil, Venezuela, Malaysia and Vietnam are
also swooping in. Of course, we can't partake because we don't trade with Cuba. But what about at least making sure there are some safety procedures
at 5,500 feet below sea level, these oil rigs off Cuba will go
even deeper than the Deepwater Horizon rig that blew up on our coast last year, and the coast of Florida,
remember, is just 60 miles away from Cuban waters. What happens if there's another oil spill? Will it be easy and quick to clean up? No. You see, the
nearest and best experts on safety procedures and dealing with oil spills are all American, but we are forbidden by
our laws from being involved in any way with Cuba. Our trade embargo on Cuba not only prevents us from doing business with
that are followed that would protect the American coastline? You see
bars us from sending equipment and expertise to help even in a crisis. So, if there
is an explosion, we will watch while the waters of the Gulf Coast get polluted. Now, this is obviously a worst case hypothetical, but it's
precisely the kind of danger we should plan for and one we can easily protect against if we
our neighbor but it also
were allowed to have any dealings with Cuba . This whole mess is an allegory for a larger problem. We imposed an
embargo on Cuba at the height of the Cold War, 52 years ago, when we were worried about Soviet expansion and the spread of communism. Well, there
is no more Soviet Union, and I don't think there's a person in the world who believes America could be infected by Cuban communism today. But the
antique policies remain - antique and failed policies. They were designed, you recall, to force regime change in Cuba. Well, the Castros have thrived for
five decades, using American hostility as a badge of Cuban nationalism. All the embargo has done is to weaken the Cuban people, keep them
impoverished and cut them off from the world. Cuba has an Internet penetration rate of just 14 percent. So only one out of seven people can use
YouTube. Only one out of 20 Cubans has a mobile phone. And now we will stand silently and watch as other countries drill for oil, reap the benefits and
endanger our coastline. But, hey, we're making sure that Cuban communism stays contained.
Lifting the embargo would solve the impending oil spills
Forbes 11 (Christopher Helman, Forbes Editor since 1999, “U.S. Should Drop Cuba Embargo For Oil Exploration”, December
12, 2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/12/12/u-s-should-drop-cuba-embargo-for-oil-exploration/)
In a few months Spanish oil company Repsol will start drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba, in a spot just 70 miles south of Key West.
Soon Repsol–and its JV partners Norway’s Statoil and India’s ONGC–will be joined by rigs from PetroVietnam, Malaysia’s Petronas
and Venezuela’s PDVSA. But you won’t see any U.S. companies there. Inexplicably, the U.S. maintains its economic
embargo against the Castro regime. This wrong-headed policy represents a dangerous threat to the
environment and a huge missed opportunity to the U.S. oil industry. The U.S. embargo will do
nothing to prevent oil drilling from taking place in Cuban waters. But it will prevent that work
from being done by the most experienced companies with the highest quality equipment. Norway’s
Statoil is a proven operator with a long history in the North Sea and the Gulf. The rest of those companies are just getting started
offshore. A group of U.S. lawmakers in September urged Repsol (ticker: REPYY.PK) to call off its Cuba plans or face the threat of
U.S. lawsuits. Repsol wisely called that bluff. At least the Obama administration is doing something to ensure that Repsol’s drilling
rig is up to snuff. According to an excellent article from Bloomberg today, Repsol’s Chinese-built Scarabeo 9 rig will soon by boarded
by four U.S. inspectors (two from the Coast Guard, two from the Dept. of Interior) who will do what they can to check out the rig and
watch some drills. But, according to the article, there will be real limits to what the inspectors can inspect.
They won’t get to check the rig’s all-important blowout preventor, or the well casing or drilling
fluids that are to be used. Though the U.S. inspectors will discuss any concerns they have with
Repsol, they will have no enforcement authority.
Lifting restrictions on exports of oil safety equipment solves spills and
cooperation
Guy 12 – Columnist at South Florida Sun Sentinel (Kingsley, “EMBARGO COULD RISK DRILLING SAFETY,” South Florida
Sun Sentinel, 2/26/12, Lexis)//Bwang
Cuba doesn't possess the technology or expertise to drill into the seabed a mile or more from the
surface, so it has contracted with the Spanish firm Repsol to do the job. The company has a good safety record, but as the
Deepwater Horizon blowout demonstrated, there's no fail-safe method of preventing a massive spill. As the rigs in Cuban waters
proliferate, so will the chances of a disaster that could affect Florida and other U.S. states.¶ It's in Cuba's interest to stress
drilling safety. An oil spill would threaten its tourist industry as much as it would Florida's. But unfortunately, there's
something that's getting in the way of safety, and that's the United States' 50-year-old embargo
of Cuba.¶ Among other things, it restricts trade in state-of-the-art drilling-safety equipment and
inhibits communication between the two nations.¶ There's certainly some interaction across the Florida Straits,
but should an emergency erupt, legal restrictions and bureaucratic inertia would disrupt
cooperation between Cuba and the United States, and this could lead to a disaster for both
countries.¶ It's time for U.S. and Cuban officials to put politics aside and make concrete
arrangements on how they will respond to an oil spill. Those arrangements could, and should,
include the lifting of all restrictions on the export of oil-well safety equipment from the United
States. The next step might even include allowing U.S. firms to bid on Cuban oil leases and
conduct the drilling themselves. Repsol's reaping financial rewards by doing so, and American drillers should be able to
do the same.¶ Forty years ago this month, President Richard Nixon traveled to Communist China, which opened
the way to diplomatic and trade relations with that country. It's long past time for the U.S. to pursue a similar
course with Cuba, and the oil drilling issue could provide the opening to do so.
NGOs pave way for greater environmental cooperation
Boom 12 – Director, Caribbean Biodiversity Program, and Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany,
The New York Botanical Garden (PhD Brian M., “Biodiversity without Borders,” Science
Diplomacy, 8/14/12, http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-withoutborders)//Bwang
Fortunately, some NGOs
in the United States have had success over the years in working
collaboratively with their Cuban counterparts on shared environmental issues. The experiences of
such NGOs can inform a way forward in structuring an enhanced mechanism for bilateral
cooperation. Also fortunately, on January 14, 2011, the Obama administration announced new rules that ease
some restrictions on U.S. citizens’ travel and remittances to Cuba, which will collaterally encourage more
bilateral environmental collaboration as well. While these steps have created some space, given the political realities, a
targeted environmental agreement is required to facilitate further mutually beneficial study, monitoring, and protection of shared
biodiversity.
cuba k2 biodiversity
Deep Sea Oil drilling would threaten endangered marine life off the
coast of Cuba and the US
Cuba News 13 (World's leading source of business information on this secretive nation only 90 miles from Florida's shores,
“EDF: What about environmental impact?”, March 4, 2013, http://www.cubanews.com/sections/edf-what-about-environmentalimpact)
Now that exploration efforts have shifted to Cuba’s north-central coast, the media seems far less interested in the environmental consequences. That worries attorney Dan
Whittle, Cuba program director at the New York-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). Whittle has been monitoring Cuba’s marine life for the past 12 years. At first, he was
concerned about the island’s expanding tourism sector and the adverse effects it might have on the environment. But with that sector still limited mainly to Havana and
concern as an environmentalist is the impact on Cuban
marine life,” Whittle told us. “That area, [Cuba’s north central coast] is very important. It’s extremely rich in marine biodiversity.
The impact could be significant from any major oil spill. What distinguishes this from other sites
is the near-shore impact.” The EDF notes that the Cuban government has designated 18% of its ocean shelf as marine
protected areas, with plans to increase that area to 25%. The organization has a long track record monitoring Cuba’s coastlines. As far back as the 1990s, the EDF took
part in helping the Castro government protect Jardines de la Reina, an 850-sq-mile marine reserve along Cuba’s southeastern coast. The reserve boasts large
populations of sea turtles, sharks, huge groupers and thick sea grass meadows all essential in
maintaining a balanced ecosystem. Whittle understands that the regime is under pressure to find oil off its coasts, especially because its major
Varadero, Whittle says he’s focusing more now on offshore oil drilling. “My
petroleum source, Venezuela, could dry up if ailing President Hugo Chávez dies. However, Whittle hopes the Cubans are cautious with their offshore activities. “If they are intent
Fishing, coastal
development, and offshore oil and gas exploration in Cuba can have huge impacts on the United
States and vice-versa.” The nonprofit group is also urging the Cubans to look seriously at ocean thermal energy as well as other alternatives to oil. “With good
on proceeding, then they should do so in the most careful, sensitive way possible,” said Whittle, saying his concerns aren’t limited to Cuba. “
standards and policy in place, Cuba could be a model for clean energy development in the Caribbean,” said Dr. Rod Fujita, director of ocean innovations the research and
development arm of EDF.
Cuba’s unique location makes it a vital Bio-diversity hotspot
Pinon and Muse 10 (Jorge RPiñon is a Visiting Research Fellow with the Cuban Research institute at Florida international
University and former president of amoco oil Latin America, Robert L Muse is a washington, D.C. based attorney with long and
substantial experience in U.S.-Cuba legal matters. Both are advisors to the Brookings institution task Force on U.S.- Cuba Relations.,
“Coping with the Next Oil Spill: Why U.S.-Cuba Environmental Cooperation is Critical”, May 2010,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/5/18%20oil%20spill%20cuba%20pinon/0518_oil_spill_cuba_pi
non.pdf, JL)
Shortly after releasing its report, Brookings and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) co-hosted a new era for U.S.-Cuba Relations on Marine and
Coastal Resources Conservation, a conference highlighting the importance and value of environmental cooperation between Cuba and the United
states. EDF has particular expertise in this area because it has been working with Cuban scientists and environmental officials for over a decade to
protect coral reefs, marine life and coastal areas in their country. The joint Brookings/EDF conference identified areas of potential bilateral
collaboration aimed at protecting shared marine and coastal ecosystems in the gulf of Mexico, Caribbean sea and the Atlantic ocean. The importance of
cooperation on environmental issues stressed at the conference is particularly relevant now in light of events like the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and
the basic facts of geography and their relation to threats to contiguous U.s. and Cuban marine areas. Cuba
sits at the intersection of
the Atlantic ocean, Caribbean sea and gulf of Mexico and thus shares marine waters with the
United states, areas where oil and gas deposits are about to be explored. Preserving that country’s marine
biodiversity is critically important because it constitutes the natural heritage of the Cuban people. The health of Cuba’s ocean
environment is likewise important to the economies of coastal communities in the United states
where significant numbers of fish species that spawn in Cuban waters are carried by prevailing
currents into U.s. waters and caught by commercial and recreational fishermen. florida and the southeastern United
states are situated in the downstream of those currents, which bring snapper, grouper, tuna, swordfish (as well as manatee and sea turtles) to U.S.
waters, but can serve equally as vectors of Cuban spilled oil. The United states geological survey estimates that Cuba’s Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ),
which includes the gulf of Mexico north Cuba fold and Thrust Belt, has over five billion barrels of oil and 8.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas
undiscovered reserves.2 Like the United states, the
size of Cuba’s oil and gas reserves is both economically
fortuitous and a measure of the threat it poses to the marine environment. in addition to spain’s Repsol, over
the next few years international oil companies such as norway’s statoil-hydro, Brazil’s Petrobras and others will be conducting exploratory work off
Cuba’s north coast. it is only a matter of time before production begins in earnest and the environmental risks rise exponentially
Oil Spill would affect Florida—destroy local fisheries and marine
ecosystem
Whittle 13 - - Environmental Law Proffessor at Wake Forest University, B.A from Colarodo Unviersity (Dan Whittle “What Happens in Cuba
Doesn’t Stay in Cuba”, http://www.edf.org/blog/2013/03/14/what-happens-cuba-doesn%E2%80%99t-stay-cuba, JL)
As a Cuban scientist said after the documentary ended, “We may be separated by a wide political gulf, but the Gulf of Mexico brings
us close together.” Truer words could not be spoken. Because of the prevailing currents and Cuba's proximity to the
United States, marine
and terrestrial ecosystems in the two countries are tightly linked in ways that
no political disagreements can affect. Cuban coastal waters are the spawning grounds for snapper, grouper and other
reef fish that are crucial to commercial and recreational fisheries in Florida. Migratory sharks swim freely across the
Gulf’s political boundaries, and American scientists have recently discovered a vast deep water coral
ecosystem that may extend from North Carolina to the north coast of Cuba. Also, the area around Havana is a
major wintering ground for most of the familiar songbirds that nest along the eastern seaboard of the United States. Lastly, Cuban
waters off the Gulf of Mexico hold vast oil reserves, and if a major oil spill were ever to occur, currents in the Florida
Straits would almost certainly carry oil to American waters and shorelines.
Florida’s Everglades constitute as a biodiversity hotspot
Alles 7 (David L Alles Biology professor at Western Washington University, “Biodiversity Hot Spots: The Florida Everglades”,
November 1, 2012, http://www.biol.wwu.edu/trent/alles/Everglades.pdf, JL)
"Biodiversity hot spots are areas where endemic species with small ranges are concentrated. Not all are in the tropics, but most are.
Hot spots can be extraordinarily concentrated; thousands of species may be found within a relatively small area. Species with small
ranges are particularly vulnerable to impacts. Nature has put her eggs in a small number of baskets, and we are in danger of
dropping them. On land, worldwide 25 areas are recognized as hotspots which contain concentrations of endemic species that are
disproportionately vulnerable to extinction from regional habitat destruction. These areas retain less than 10% of their original
habitat and have unusually high human population densities." (Pimm, 2001) The Florida Everglades contains one of
the highest concentrations of species vulnerable to extinction in the United States. The 5,000-squarekilometre wetland in southern Florida is home to at least 60 endangered species, including the American crocodile
(Mason, 2003). And the area retains less than 10% of its original habitat as the human population density of southern Florida
threatens to over-run one of the most unique habitats in North America. Nourished by the rain soaked Kissimmee River Basin and
stretching south from 700 square mile Lake Okeechobee (left center), the Everglades are a wide slow moving river of marsh and saw
grass covering some 4,500 square miles, flowing slowly towards the mangrove estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico (right below center).
The Everglades are a unique habitat; there are no other everglades in the world. No other place
combines a subtropical climate, a broad, shallow river, and a stunning diversity of plants and
animals into such a complex and fragile ecosystem. No other place is so dramatically defined by annual rhythms
of drought and flood, fire and sunshine and torrential rain.
Spills destroy the Florida Reef Tract – key biodiversity hotspot
Padgett 12 WLRN-Miami Herald News' Americas correspondent covering Latin America and the Caribbean from Miami (Tim,
"The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill Prevention," 1/27/12,
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)//AM
So is much of coastal Florida, where tourism generates $60 billion annually — which is why the state keeps oil
rigs out of its waters. The
Florida Keys lie as close as 50 miles from where Repsol is drilling; and they
run roughly parallel to the 350-mile-long (560 km) Florida Reef Tract (FRT), the world's third
largest barrier reef and one of its most valuable ocean eco-systems . The FRT is already under
assault from global warming, ocean acidification and overfishing of symbiotic species like parrotfish that keep coral pruned of
corrosive algae. If a spill were to damage the FRT, which draws $2 billion from tourism each year
and supports 33,000 jobs, "it would be a catastrophic event ," says David Vaughan, director of Florida's
private Mote Marine Laboratory.¶ Which means America has its own dilemma. As much as the U.S. would like to
thwart Cuban petro-profits — Cuban-American leaders like U.S. Representative and House Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Miami say the oil will throw a lifeline to the Castro dictatorship — it needs to care as
much if not more about its own environment. Because fewer than a tenth of the Scarabeo 9's components were
made in America, Washington can't wield the embargo cudgel and fine Repsol, which has interests in the U.S., for doing
business with Cuba. (Most of the other firms don't have U.S. interests.) Nor can it in good conscience use the embargo in this case to
keep U.S. companies from offering spill prevention/containment hardware and services to Repsol and other drilling contractors.¶
One of those U.S. firms is Helix Energy Solutions in Houston. Amid
the Gulf disaster, Helix engineered a
"capping stack" to plug damaged blow-out preventers like the one that failed on BP's Deepwater
Horizon rig. (It later contained the spill.) Having that technology at hand — especially since the Cuba
rigs will often operate in deeper waters than the Deepwater rig was mining — will be critical if a
spill occurs off Cuba.¶
at BP spill disproves impact
Any Cuban oil spill would be substantially worse than BP, and the embargo means
we can’t respond
Dlouhy 12 reporter on energy policy, politics and other issues for The Houston Chronicle and other Hearst Newspapers from
Washington, D.C. (Jennifer A., "Experts say U.S. should do more to thwart spill from Cuba drilling," 5/10/12,
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2012/05/10/experts-say-u-s-should-do-more-to-thwart-spill-from-cuban-drilling/)//AM
The arsenal of weapons used to combat the 2010 Gulf spill — from oil skimmers to remotely
operated devices on the sea floor — could be ensnared by the embargo if there were a similar
disaster at Repsol’s well, Reilly said.¶ Because of the trade sanctions, the brand new Scarabeo 9
drilling rig that is working on Repsol’s site was outfitted with a used blowout preventer instead
of a new one from U.S. manufacturers. A blowout preventer, or BOP, is a stack of valves and powerful shears designed to cut
and seal drill pipe as a last line of defense against loss of well control.¶ If Repsol’s blowout preventer or other rig
equipment needs repairs, parts must be bought on a secondhand market, instead of direct from dealers in
Houston, said Lee Hunt, the former head of the International Association of Drilling Contractors. The approach is akin to repairing a
Mercedes with Ford parts, Hunt added.¶ Repsol began drilling its well in February 16 miles from the Cuban coast and 70 miles south
of Key West, Fla. The operation in nearly a mile of water is now within a week of reaching its target depth, below the seafloor, said
Hunt and others familiar with the company’s progress.¶ When Repsol’s work is done it is expected to hand over
the Scarabeo 9 rig to Malaysia’s Petronas for drilling in Cuban waters to the west. Companies
from Vietnam and Venezuela also are expected to begin drilling in the region soon.¶ An accident
at Repsol’s well could send oil into coral reefs along the Cuban and Florida coasts. But scientific
modeling shows that as drilling moves farther west, the risk increases that oil and tar balls from
a spill would reach the Florida Keys and Miami beaches, said Dan Whittle, a senior attorney with the Environmental
Defense Fund.¶ “If a major spill were to happen in Cuban waters, the impacts would be dramatic,”
Whittle said. “ It could be a heck of a lot more damaging than the BP oil spill.”¶
additional econ internals
Oil’s key to Cuba’s economy
Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 – Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International
University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of
the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the
American Political Science Association (Jonathan, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches
to Cooperation,” Print)//Bwang
The power and hydrocarbon sectors are inextricably linked, as Cuba produces about 85 percent
of its power using liquid fuels, a very high percentage compared with other countries.3 The total value of the
energy consumed in Cuba has been estimated at 14 percent of GDP, compared with a world average of
about 10 percent. In 2007, domestic production of crude oil accounted for about 40 percent of total
consumption and the rest was imported from Venezuela. About 50 percent of the total supply of
fuel oil is applied to power generation and 50 percent for transportation and other uses; this is
consistent with the usage breakdown seen in other countries.
US-Cuban cooperation on oil is key to solve the Cuban economy – oil
lobby provides political cover
Haven 12 Associated Press writer (Paul, "Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams To Materialize,"
Huffington Post, 5/27/12, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081.html)//AM
HAVANA -- It was supposed to be Cuba's economic savior: vast untapped reserves of black
gold
buried deep under the rocky ocean floor.¶ But the first attempt in nearly a decade to find Cuba's hoped-for undersea
oil bonanza has come up dry, and the island's leaders and their partners must regroup and hope they have better luck - quickly.¶
Experts say it is not unusual that a 3-mile (4.8-kilometer) deep exploratory well drilled at a cost of more than $100 million by
Spanish oil giant Repsol was a bust. Four out of five such wells find nothing in the high-stakes oil game, and petroleum companies
are built to handle the losses.¶ But Cuba has more at stake, and only a few more spins left of the roulette
wheel. The enormous Scarabeo-9 platform being used in the hunt is the only one in the world that can drill in Cuban waters
without incurring sanctions under the U.S. economic embargo, and it is under contract for only one to four more exploratory wells
before it heads off to Brazil.¶ "If oil is not found now I think it would be another five to 10 years before somebody else comes back
and drills again," said Jorge Pinon, the former president of Amoco Oil Latin America and a leading expert on Cuba's energy
prospects. "Not because there is no oil, but because the pain and tribulations that people have to go through to drill in Cuba are not
worth it when there are better and easier options in places like Angola, Brazil or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico."¶ A delay would be
catastrophic for Cuba, where 80-year-old President Raul Castro is desperately trying to pull the
economy out of the doldrums through limited free-market reforms, and has been forced to cut
many of the subsidies islanders have come to expect in return for salaries of just $20 a month.¶ It could also
leave the Communist-governed island more dependent on Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez is
ailing with cancer. Chavez provides Cuba with $3 billion worth of heavily subsidized oil every year, a deal that might evaporate if he
dies or fails to win re-election in October.¶ An oil find, on the other hand, would potentially improve Cuba's
long-bitter relations with the United States, some analysts suggest. They say the U.S. oil industry could
lobby Congress to loosen the embargo so it could get in on Cuba's oil game. At the very least,
coordination between the Cold War enemies would be necessary to prepare for any spill that
could coat beaches in the U.S. and Cuba with black goo.
Lack of oil access collapses Cuba's economy and leads to social chaos
and instability
Ashby 13 Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, served in the U.S. Commerce Department's
International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and as acting Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere. He has PhD, JD and MBA degrees. (Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After
Normalizing Relations with the United States - the Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises," 3/29/13,
http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AM
The twilight of the Castro era presents challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy makers. Normalization of relations is inevitable,
regardless of timing, yet external and internal factors may accelerate or retard the process. The death of Venezuelan
President Hugo Chávez is likely to undermine the already dysfunctional Cuban economy, if it
leads to reductions in oil imports and other forms of aid. This could bring social chaos, especially among the
island’s disaffected youth. Such an outcome would generate adverse consequences for U.S. national and
regional security. To maintain Cuba’s social and economic stability while reforms are maturing, the United States must throw
itself open to unrestricted bilateral trade with all Cuban enterprises, both private and state-owned. The collapse of Cuba’s
tottering economy could seismically impact the United States and neighboring countries. It
certainly did during the Mariel Boatlift of 1980, precipitated by a downturn in the Cuban
economy which led to tensions on the island. Over 125,000 Cuban refugees landed in the Miami
area, including 31,000 criminals and mental patients. Today, the United States defines its national security
interests regarding Cuba as follows: • Avoid one or more mass migrations; • Prevent Cuba from becoming another porous border
that allows continuous large-scale migration to the hemisphere; • Prevent Cuba from becoming a major source or transshipment
point for the illegal drug trade; • Avoid Cuba becoming a state with ungoverned spaces that could provide a platform for terrorists
and others wishing to harm the United States. [2] All of these national security threats are directly related to economic and social
conditions within Cuba.
at: democracy da
Trade with Cuba would expand freedom and undermine Castro
Bandow, 12 http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-pointless-cuba-embargo-7834 Time to End the Cuba Embargo
Doug Bandow | December 11, 2012 Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President
Ronald Reagan, he is the author of several books, including Foreign Follies: America's New Global Empire.//JH
The administration should move now, before congressmen are focused on the next election. President Obama should propose
legislation to drop (or at least significantly loosen) the embargo. He also could use his authority to relax sanctions by, for instance,
granting more licenses to visit the island.¶ Ending the embargo would have obvious economic benefits for
both Cubans and Americans. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates American
losses alone from the embargo as much as $1.2 billion annually.¶ Expanding economic
opportunities also might increase pressure within Cuba for further economic reform. So far the
regime has taken small steps, but rejected significant change. Moreover, thrusting more
Americans into Cuban society could help undermine the ruling system. Despite Fidel Castro’s decline,
Cuban politics remains largely static. A few human rights activists have been released, while Raul Castro has used party purges to
entrench loyal elites.¶ Lifting the embargo would be no panacea. Other countries invest in and trade with Cuba to no obvious political
impact. And the lack of widespread economic reform makes it easier for the regime rather than the people to collect the benefits of
trade, in contrast to China. Still, more U.S. contact would have an impact. Argued trade specialist Dan Griswold, “American tourists
would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate restaurants in their homes. Those dollars
would then find their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmers markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and
other entrepreneurs.”¶ The Castro dictatorship ultimately will end up in history’s dustbin. But it will continue to cause much human
hardship along the way.¶ The Heritage Foundation’s John Sweeney complained nearly two decades ago that “the United States must
not abandon the Cuban people by relaxing or lifting the trade embargo against the communist regime.” But the dead hand of half a
century of failed policy is the worst breach of faith with the Cuban people.¶ Lifting sanctions would be a victory not
for Fidel Castro, but for the power of free people to spread liberty. As Griswold argued, “commercial
engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad.” Of course, there are no guarantees. But lifting the
embargo would have a greater likelihood of success than continuing a policy which has failed.
Some day the Cuban people will be free. Allowing more contact with Americans likely would
make that day come sooner.
Lifting sanctions key to democracy efforts and economic stability
Ediger 12 (Don, veteran journalist who has worked for The Miami Herald, Associated Press, BusinessWeek and the
International Herald Tribune, among other publications, “Cuba’s Post-Castro Future,” 9/19/12,
http://consortiumnews.com/2012/09/19/cubas-post-castro-future/, MDM)
Exclusive: With Fidel Castro now 86 and his brother Raul at 81, big changes
appear inevitable in
Cuba over the next few years. Cuban-Americans are ramping up investment plans, assuming the
U.S. government will finally lift the embargo. But the future may not be all that’s expected, reports
Don Ediger.¶ For more than 50 years, Cuban-Americans have been looking for ways to end the
Castro regime. Today their plans are being re-shaped in ways that would have been all but unthinkable only a few years ago –
and these plans will be affected by the outcome of U.S. presidential elections.¶ Most Cuban-Americans now believe
that a transition to democracy may require a period of many years. In the meantime, a growing
number of them are exploring ways to profit from a country that has been off limits for most
American companies.¶ The key to this new strategy is an option that until recently wasn’t even
open to discussion – ending the U.S. embargo. That’s more likely to happen, Cuba experts say, if Barack Obama is
reelected, because Democrats are traditionally more open to options regarding the embargo. There’s also growing doubt
about whether outlawing Cuban imports actually hurts the regime.¶ “Personally, I think that the
embargo is a completely failed policy,” says Miami attorney Antonio Zamora, referring to the 50-year-old law that was
imposed after the Castro regime expropriated private property. In all those years, Zamora points out, only a few property owners
have ever been compensated.¶ Though largely overlooked by the media, major shifts in Florida demographics make repeal of the
embargo much more likely. Numbering more than one million, Cuban-Americans have been the largest Hispanic group in Florida,
and for many years they overwhelmingly favored keeping the embargo in place. To win elections in Florida – the country’s largest
swing state – politicians of both parties have traditionally promised to uphold the embargo for fear of alienating Cuban voters.¶ Now
that’s changing. Hispanics from Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and other Latin American countries are
growing faster in numbers than those from Cuba. And while Cuban-Americans are mostly Republicans, others in Florida are heavily
Democratic.¶ Moreover, Cuban-Americans themselves are changing their mind about the embargo. According to a recent study by
the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University (FIU), most Cuban-Americans in Miami would
agree with Zamora that the embargo hasn’t worked well. In fact, 47 percent would like to see the embargo lifted.¶
“This is probably the first presidential election in which Cuba is not a top issue for the Cuban-American community,” says Andy
Gomez, senior fellow at the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. A member of Mitt Romney’s
staff phoned Gomez last year to get his advice on the topics that Romney should address when he visits Miami. Gomez’s answer
wasn’t Cuba but jobs and the economy.¶ It’s not that Cuban-Americans are no longer interested in Cuba, Gomez says, but that they
are “tired of the same thing over and over again.”¶ There’s a growing consensus among Cuban-Americans that lifting the
embargo won’t help the Castros retain power – as some once thought – because the regime has been
thoroughly entrenched for more than five decades. When Fidel Castro became ill six years ago, some experts
thought the end was near, but today they discuss a variety of scenarios.¶ As Jose Gabilondo of FIU’s Cuban Research Institute
explains it: “The logic of the U.S. embargo is ‘Let’s create conditions of civil unrest in Cuba by
creating conditions of economic hardship such that there will be a popular uprising that will lead
to a revolution.’ I reject that approach. I don’t think it makes sense.”¶ The other approach,
Gabilondo says, “is to realize that transition is already happening in Cuba – slowly, and one deal at a
time.”¶ A Vietnam-Style Scenario¶ The most likely scenario, many experts believe, is for Cuba to follow a path similar to Vietnam’s
– continuing as an authoritarian socialist state but also opening up trade with the United States. ¶ Several Cuban-American groups
are already gearing up for this possibility, which comes with the prospect of huge profits for American companies once the embargo
is lifted. There’s also a sentiment in the community that opening up trade might also provide the Cuban
government with an incentive to be less repressive.¶ But while Raul Castro – the current leader of Cuba – appears
to be more open than his brother to economic reform, Jorge Duany, director of FIU’s Cuban Research Institute, emphasizes that
neither Castro wants more than one party, free elections or a free-market economy.¶ A small step in
economic reform came two years ago when the Cuban government authorized 99-year commercial leases, and as of last year, Cubans
could also sell their houses. But private businesses are still very difficult to start with a two-year backlog of license applications.¶ Just
a few days ago there were signs that the Castro government is trying to take advantage of the changes in U.S. politics and strategy of
the Cuban-American community:¶ –The government in Havana reiterated its willingness to negotiate the release of Alan Gross, an
American contractor who has spent more than 2 1/2 years in jail on charges of trying to install Internet technology to undermine the
government.¶ –The Cuban government has raised its profile as mediator in Colombia’s peace talks with FARC, the communist
guerrilla group that Cuba has supported. If mediation succeeds and FARC becomes a legitimate political party, the U.S. is likely to
remove Cuba from its list of terrorist nations – a step that makes it easier to lift the embargo.¶ The embargo forbids American
companies from importing goods from Cuba and from selling anything but agricultural goods to the country. American firms are
currently allowed to export agricultural products to Cuba.¶ The embargo doesn’t affect the ability of Americans to send up to
$10,000 a day to Cuba, a provision that lets Cuban-Americans help family members who remain on the island. These remittances
total more than $2 billion a year.¶ Lucrative Market¶ The stakes are high for post-embargo trade. Cuba has a
gross domestic product (in purchasing power parity) of about $114 billion, putting it in a league with Ecuador and
New Zealand. Companies from dozens of countries – including Spain, France, Venezuela and Canada – are already profiting by trade
with Cuba.¶ Miami attorney Zamora, who gives legal advice to companies in the U.S. and throughout Latin America, said these
are some of the major opportunities for American companies:¶ –Construction. Many houses, for
example, are in need of repair.¶ –Resorts, including retirement communities, golf courses and other sports facilities.¶ –Oil
refineries (assuming the success of continued oil exploration).¶ –Infrastructure, especially highways, ports and power
plants. (Earlier this month, some five million residents of western Cuba were without electricity after a massive blackout.)¶ –
Biotechnology and health-care facilities.¶ –Travel to, from and on the island.¶ Many businesses,
especially in Florida, are already preparing for trade and investment in post-embargo Cuba, and several Cuba trade groups have
started up in Miami and Tampa, among other cities.¶ Trade advocates point out that if U.S. companies don’t start doing
business in Cuba, foreign corporations are almost certain to step up their activities there. The
French, for example, pulled back their investments when European economies tanked several years ago. They now hope to increase
investment in Cuba from a recent level of 150 million euros (about $196 million) to 250 million euros (about $327 million) a year.
Drilling investment establishes a framework for long term relations
Lanier 13 J.D. Candidate at the University of North Carolina School of Law,
B.A. from the University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill (C. Adam Lanier Winter 2013 “In Deepwater: Cuba, Offshore Drilling, and Political Brinkmanship,” North Carolina
Journal of International Law & Commercial Regulation, 38 N.C.J. Int'l L. & Com. Reg. 571) //KY
IV. Recommendations¶ The development of Cuba's offshore oil resources has sparked the interest of a number of academics, foreign
policy think tanks, and environmental activist groups. n148 This section of the note will explore several of the more effective options
while keeping an eye toward practicality. n149 Due to the disagreement over the direction U.S. policy should
take, as evidenced by the various legislative proposals introduced over the past several years, it
is unlikely that U.S. policy
toward Cuba will change overnight. n150 Nevertheless, making small changes that are in the best
interest of both Cuba and the United States, such as loosening restrictions on the ability of private
companies to assist Cuba's offshore drilling efforts, can help provide a long-term framework for the
normalization of relations on mutually acceptable terms. [*595]
at: ethanol da
Cuba can’t solve sugar based ethanol – lack of expertise
Specht 13 - Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009;
J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012 (Jonathon Specht, “Raising Cane: Cuban
Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States”, April 24, 2013,
http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, JL)
Like all new capitalist industries to emerge in the post-Castro era, whatever
ethanol industry arises will have
to deal with the painful transition from socialism to capitalism. The Cuban sugarcane ethanol
industry will face similar challenges to other private sector industries that arise in the post-Fidel era. One of these challenges
will be simply a lack of people with skills necessary for any industry. According to Edward
Gonzalez and Kevin McCarthy of the RAND Corporation, “[A]s a result of 40-plus years of communism, the
labor force lacks the kinds of trained managers, accountants, auditors, bankers,
insurers, etc., that a robust market economy requires.”53 While these challenges will not be unique to
Cuba’s ethanol industry, they will put the country at a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis existing ethanol
exporters such as Brazil. This will be especially true if there is a significant lag time between the
expiration of the ethanol tariff barriers at the end of 2011 and the eventual removal of the UnitedStates trade
embargo against Cuba.
Alt Cause - Cuban ethanol needs massive Foreign Investment
Specht 13 - Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009;
J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012 (Jonathon Specht, “Raising Cane: Cuban
Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States”, April 24, 2013,
http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, JL)
Additionally, because Cuba’s
ethanol industry is currently almost nonexistent, it will need a great
deal of foreign expertise and investment to get started. However, such investments are unlikely to be
made unless Cuba makes fundamental changes in its business climate. In the words of Gonzalez
and McCarthy, “[C]apital investment, which Cuba’s economy desperately needs and which is most likely to be supplied by foreign
investors, will be difficult to attract without enforceable contracts, access to neutral adjudication of disputes, and a degree of
predictability that has heretofore been lacking.”54 Any postCastro government will likely begin to make such changes to increase the
appeal of the island nation to foreign investment. However, implementing
these changes will take time and
trial and error, which will slow the creation of a sugarcane-based ethanol industry.
cooperation advantage
plan k2 relations
Oil investment key to energy independence, relations, and economic
reform
Lanier 13 J.D. Candidate at the University of North Carolina School of Law,
B.A. from the University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill (C. Adam Lanier Winter 2013 “In Deepwater: Cuba, Offshore Drilling, and Political Brinkmanship,” North Carolina
Journal of International Law & Commercial Regulation, 38 N.C.J. Int'l L. & Com. Reg. 571) //KY
2. Long Term Policy Changes¶ Aside from the short-term benefits discussed in the previous section, getting the private
sector involved with Cuba's energy development could provide several long-term benefits to both the United
States and Cuba. This initial engagement should be [*597] designed with a long-term view of encouraging U.S. investment
in Cuba's energy sector. The U.S. government should use this opportunity as a way to help Cuba diversify its energy
resources, which will push Cuba toward obtaining energy independence. n159 In doing so, the
United States would help develop a new market in Cuba for U.S. products designed to increase energy
efficiency and renewable energy sources. n160¶ Many commentators have also suggested that one of the best ways to
encourage economic reform in Cuba is to engage the country as a new market, which naturally
promotes economic development and subsequent reforms. n161 By encouraging economic growth and development
in Cuba during the current period of economic transformation on the island, n162 the United States will directly benefit the Cuban
people by empowering them and allowing them to select their own form of government, rather than imposing American democracy.
n163¶ Allowing the private sector to engage Cuba will ultimately increase the people-to-people contacts
in Cuba, n164 revealing more of the interests
shared by the two communities. This increased contact should
ultimately lead Washington to engage in full diplomatic communication . The United States should
begin this process sooner rather than later, so that it can help foster these goals of energy independence, economic development, and
reform.
now k2 relations
Now is the time to transform US –Cuba relations – it’s now or never
Stephens and Dunscomb 9 – Stephens is the executive director of The Center for Democracy in the Americas,
Dunscomb is a consultant at The Center for Democracy in the Americas. For eight years, she worked as research director and then
segment producer for the McLaughlin Group (Sara Stephens and Alice Dunscomb, “9 Ways for US to Talk to Cuba and for Cuba to
Talk to US”, 2009, The center for democracy in the Americas, http://www.scribd.com/doc/10323598/9-Ways-for-US-to-Talk-toCuba-and-for-Cuba-to-Talk-to-US#download, JL)
For a variety of reasons, the U.S.-Cuba
relationship appears to havearrived at a strategic inflection point . A
a chance to rethink theneeds of the moment
and the demands of the future. They comeinfrequently and once gone cannot be
strategic inflection point is thetime when companies — or countries — have
recaptured . The time for America to re-aim its goal, strategy, and policies toward Cuba is
now.The last such opportunity came when the Soviet Union left Cuba — but the U.S. chose not to take advantage of
that moment. There is no way to predict when the next opportunity will come.The Obama administration enters office unburdened by the bag-gage of
history. President Obama
speaks eloquently to Americans of balanced principle and pragmatism. His
Cuban community that has driven so much of U.S. policy in the past — a community
that is undergoing its owndemographic changes, with a younger generation who have
differentattitudes toward what is possible and even desirable in terms of U.S.policy toward
Cuba.On Cuba’s side of the equation, there is considerable evidence of evolved thinking. Cuba is
election owes no debt to thehard-core anti-Castro
saddled with a twin dilemma: a rapidly graying group more than sixty years old represents a big demographicslice of the population — more than 20
percent — and places moredemands on the country’s social and economic system. At the sametime, young people make increasingly loud and public
calls for a bet-ter quality of life. Generational
change is bringing new demands andnew perspectives. Younger
Castro, sinceassuming power
as Cuba’s president, has given a succession of speeches calling for structural changes in the Cuban
economy toincrease efficiency and production, and has taken steps to make thegovernment smaller
and more efficient.Agricultural reforms have been instituted to increase domestic pro-duction and begin the process of substituting
Cubans have a different outlook as to what constitutes the good life.To respond to these competing demands, Raúl
imported foodstuffs forCuban agricultural products. In 2008, Raúl Castro announced bothagricultural reforms and the relaxation of regulations on the
importa-tion of DVD players, VCRs, game consoles, auto parts, and TVs. 15 None of this constitutes a dramatic repudiation of the past or eventhe
promise of dramatic political and economic change; the govern-ment of Raúl Castro is firmly in control of the work and lives of theCuban
people.However, this fifty-year
cycle may have run its course. Each coun-try has its own singular goal and strategy, but at this
defining moment,as the context changes, we need to ask, how will those strategieschange as well?Change
within Cuba will certainly come within the existing sys-tem. 16 The United States therefore needs to adopt a strategy and
poli-cies that amplify and support the change within Cuba toward greaterfreedom and respect
for human rights, and that serve and supportlarger American economic and political interests.To do that thoroughly,
coherently, and correctly will require theU.S. to untangle an incoherent thicket of legal and
regulatory sanc-tions that do not fit the current context and do not serve U.S. interests.Because much
of the current intellectual and political mess has beenenacted by the Congress into law, it will take corrective action by
theCongress to fix it, action that should start by repealing the ban onlegal travel to Cuba by all
Americans.
cuba-russia ties high
Russian military ties with Cuba are strong and will improve in the
future
Xinhua 13 – Official press agency of the People's Republic of China and the biggest center for
collecting information and press conferences in China (“Russia to pursue further military
cooperation with Cuba,” Global Times, 4/20/13,
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/776242.shtml#.Uc9Mlvm1Fsm)//Bwang
Russia has good military cooperation with Cuba and will continue expanding their military ties,
Cuban official Prensa Latina news agency quoted a Russian general as saying here Friday.
The two countries have collaborated in various military fields such as cadre training, operational
combat training and technical cooperation, said Russia's Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who arrived in
Havana on Thursday for a four-day working visit.
He was welcomed by his Cuban counterpart General Alvaro Lopez Miera on Friday and laid a wreath to Cuban pro-independence
hero Antonio Maceo at the Cacahual Mausoleum outside Havana.
His agenda in Cuba covers touring important tank units and other military units, schools and institutions.
Russia and Cuba were close economic and political allies during the Cold War. But their
relations diminished after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 till 2008, when Cuban leader
Raul Castro began a very active policy of restoring the old links with Moscow, including mutual
visits by the two countries' presidents.
Growing Russia presence in Cuba brings us back to the cold war era,
the closest we’ve been to all out nuclear war
Reid 08 – Staff Reporter at Geopolitical Monitor (Marsha, “Cuba & Cold War Redux,”
Geopolitical Monitor, 8/4/08, http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/cuba-russian-us-tensionsaugust-4-2008-991/)//Bwang
In a move aimed at spiting Washington for its planned missile defence system in Central Europe, Russia has
announced it will boost bilateral cooperation with Cuba. Such cooperation would entail Russian
participation in the development of Cuba’s recently discovered oil fields and a potential military
presence off the US coast, signaling a deepening of Russian-US tensions evocative of the Cold
War.
The announcement followed a July 30-31st visit to Cuba by a Russian delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Igor
Sechin. The visit involved discussions with Cuban President Raul Castro to revive economic ties between
the former Cold War allies in all areas, including oil production.
Russian stakes in Cuba’s lucrative oil sector will no doubt rub salt in the wounds of US companies shut out by a four
decade-long embargo, and also mirrors Russia’s strategic partnership with Venezuela on energy projects. These energy projects
would enable the Kremlin to establish an OPEC-like natural gas cartel, gain control over an
increasing share of global oil production, and squeeze a US market that gets 10 to 15 per cent of its oil from
Venezuela.
However, most
provocative of the Russian-Cuban alliance is Russia’s potential to establish a
military presence in Cuba, the US’ backyard. This military presence could take the form of an orbital
ballistic missile system or a refueling base for nuclear bombers, and is a direct response to US plans to
establish a missile defence system on Russia’s doorstep in Central Europe, in addition to extending NATO membership to former
Soviet states Georgia and the Ukraine.
Russian ties with Cuba are high—recent Havana visit boosts them
WSJ 13 – (Wall Street Journal, “Cuba Parliament Leader: Ties With Russia Under Full
Expansion,” The Wall Street Journal, 5/18/13, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130518700836.html)//Bwang
HAVANA (Xinhua)--Relations between Cuba and Russia are under full expansion, Esteban Lazo,
president of Cuban parliament, said Friday.¶ Lazo made the remarks after signing an agreement with
the visiting leader
of Russia's senate, Valentina Matviyenko, to boost the parliamentary cooperation between
the two countries.¶ The delegation of the Russian Senate arrived Thursday in Havana, headed by Ms. Matviyenko.¶ Mr.
Lazo said the visit would boost the "excellent" historical ties between both the governments and the peoples.¶
He also called on Russia to increase the investments to the island country.¶ Mr. Lazo stressed the importance of the current Russian
investments in Cuba's oil sector and expressed the interest of the Cuban government in extending the cooperation to other areas,
such as nickel production, tourism and agriculture.¶ Cuba isn't just a strategic partner for Russia, but also a
friend for whom Russia feels special affection, due to historical connections, Ms. Matviyenko said.¶
Havana and Moscow were close allies during the Cold War era, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the
relations cooled. Since 2005, the bilateral relations have began to improve with the resumption of mutual high-level visits.¶
Currently, Russia is Cuba's ninth largest trade partner, with a trade volume of $224 million in 2011, according to
official figures.
cuba-russia rels  war
Increased Cuba-Russia relations causes war
Richter 08 – Staff Writer for New York Times (Paul, “Moscow-Havana ties worry U.S.” 9/1/08
http://articles.latimes.com/2008/sep/01/world/fg-usrussia1)//Bwang
But at a time when Russia has intervened forcefully in Georgia and is extending the global reach of its rebuilt military, some senior
officials fear it may not be only bluster.¶ Russia "has strategic ties to Cuba again, or at least, that's where
they're going," a senior U.S. official said recently, speaking, like others, on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive
implications of the assessments.¶ The officials said they doubted the Russians would risk stationing
nuclear bombers on Cuba. But some believe that Moscow might seek to restore its onceenergetic intelligence cooperation with Havana, and to resume limited military cooperation,
possibly including refueling stops for aircraft and warships.¶ In the current environment, such contacts
would make U.S. officials uneasy, serving as a reminder of a military relationship between
Havana and Moscow that stretched from the Cuban Revolution in 1959 until a weakened, postSoviet Russia finally closed a massive electronic intelligence complex in Lourdes near Havana in 2001.¶
One senior military officer said a return of Russian ships or planes could force additional U.S.
deployments in the region. But the Bush administration and Pentagon declined to comment publicly on the implications.¶
"It is very Cold War retro," said a government official. "The topic could be reminiscent of the Cuban
missile crisis, and that is a chapter that people don't want to revisit."¶ The Russian Defense Ministry
dismissed a report in the newspaper Izvestia in July that quoted an unidentified Russian official as saying the government
intended to begin basing Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack and Tupolev Tu-95 Bear nuclear bombers in Cuba.¶ However,
the report was taken seriously enough in Washington that Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, the new Air Force chief of staff, said during his
Senate confirmation hearing at the time that sending the bombers would cross a "red line in the sand."
Russian and Chinese influence in Cuba counter US hegemony
Sáchez 07 – COHA (Council on Hemispheric Affairs) Research Fellow (Alex, “COHA Report:
Mother Russia Likes What She Now Sees in Cuba,” COHA, 5/1/2007,
http://www.coha.org/coha-report-mother-russia-likes-what-she-now-sees-in-cuba/)//Bwang
Moscow Evolves a Strategy
Similarly, it is unclear if Russia today has drafted a grand-strategy regarding what would be its military and political-diplomatic
presence in the Western Hemisphere. However, the revenues that Moscow now receives from its oil and gas
production provides it with the necessary wealth to once again become a major contender for
regional influence. Moscow policymakers fully recognize that there is a growing unrest throughout the
Western Hemisphere, as regional governments attempt to work their way out from under
Washington’s traditional influence and control. Already, the People’s Republic of China is taking
advantage of this loosening situation. Meanwhile, current and future Cuban-Russian relations can
be expected to revolve around a well-defined axis: Moscow certainly does not want to lose what
is left of the Soviet era’s traditional sphere of influence. In the meantime, Havana, even-seeking out new strategic
partners in order to counter U.S. hegemony, sees Moscow as a relationship worthy of resuscitating.
With inter-state relations based on mutual self-interests, Moscow does not have to search far for reasons to come once again
together with Havana, a factor to keep in mind as U.S. influence in the region palpably decreases.
plan k2 energy security
Lifting the trade embargo facilitates Cuba’s deepwater drilling and
energy independence—action now is key
LaGasse 12 (David, staff writer for National Geographic, “Cuba's Oil Quest to Continue, Despite Deepwater Disappointment”
Published November 19, 2012 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/11/121119-cuba-oil-quest/) //KY
But Cuba's disappointing foray into deepwater doesn't end its quest for energy. The nation produces domestically only about half
choices for making up the shortfall are sorely limited
by the 50-year-old United States trade embargo. At what could be a time of transition for Cuba,
experts agree that the failure of deepwater exploration increases the Castro regime's dependence
on the leftist government of Venezuela, which has been meeting fully half of Cuba's oil needs with steeply subsidized fuel. And
the oil it consumes. As with every aspect of its economy, its
it means Cuba will continue to seek out a wellspring of energy independence without U.S. technology, greatly increasing both the
challenges, and the risks. … Environmental, Political Risks But an energy-poor Cuba also has its risks. One of the chief concerns has
been over the danger of an accident as Cuba pursues its search for oil, so close to Florida's coastline, at times in the brisk currents of
the straits, and without U.S. industry expertise on safety. The worries led to a remarkable series of meetings among
environmentalists, Cuban officials, and even U.S government officials over several years. Conferences organized by groups like the
nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and its counterparts in Cuba have taken place in the Bahamas, Mexico City, and
elsewhere. The meetings included other countries in the region to diminish political backlash, though observers say the primary goal
was to bring together U.S. and Cuban officials. EDF led a delegation last year to Cuba, where it has worked for more than a decade
with Cuban scientists on shared environmental concerns. The visitors included former U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
administrator William Reilly, who co-chaired the national commission that investigated BP's 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster and
spill of nearly 5 million barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico. (Related Quiz: "How Much Do You Know About the Gulf Oil Spill?")
They discussed Cuba's exploration plans and shared information on the risks. "We've found world-class science in all our
interactions with the Cubans," said Douglas Rader, EDF's chief oceans scientist. He said, however, that the embargo has left Cubans
with insufficient resources and inexperience with high-tech gear. Although the United States and Cuba have no formal diplomatic
relations, sources say government officials have made low-profile efforts to prepare for a potential problem. But the two nations still
lack an agreement on how to manage response to a drilling disaster, said Robert Muse, a Washington attorney and expert on
licensing under the embargo. That lessens the chance of a coordinated response of the sort that was crucial to containing damage
from the Deepwater Horizon spill, he said. "There's a need to get over yesterday's politics," said Rader. "It's time to make sure we're
all in a position to respond to the next event, wherever it is." In addition to the environmental risks of Cuba going it alone, there are
the political risks. Piñon, at the University of Texas, said success in deepwater could have helped Cuba spring free of
Venezuela's influence as the time nears for the Castro brothers to give up power. Raúl Castro, who took
over in 2008 for ailing brother Fidel, now 86, is himself 81 years old. At a potentially crucial time of transition, the
influence of Venezuela's outspoken leftist president Hugo Chávez could thwart moves by Cuba away from its statedominated economy or toward warmer relations with the United States, said Piñon.
Independently, Cuban oil support is key to US energy security
Stephens and Dunscomb 9 – Stephens is the executive director of The Center for Democracy in the Americas,
Dunscomb is a consultant at The Center for Democracy in the Americas. For eight years, she worked as research director and then
segment producer for the McLaughlin Group (Sara Stephens and Alice Dunscomb, “9 Ways for US to Talk to Cuba and for Cuba to
Talk to US”, 2009, The center for democracy in the Americas, http://www.scribd.com/doc/10323598/9-Ways-for-US-to-Talk-toCuba-and-for-Cuba-to-Talk-to-US#download, JL)
Cuba, only ninety miles from our shores, has the potential to be animportant supplier of oil, gas and ethanol.
Increasing energy trade withCuba would contribute to U.S. energy security, and could have geopolitical benefits. It would create a competitive counterpressure to the“export-oriented” populist
agenda of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez,and Venezuela’s efforts to strengthen its regional presence
through vis-ible aid to Cuba. U.S. energy trade would also limit the attractiveness toCuba of Russia — which
appears to be shifting toward a more assertiveforeign policy — and of China, with its increasing presence in
Latin America and investment in Cuba’s energy sector.Cuba is potentially well-endowed with reserves of oil and naturalgas. The U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated that Cuba has“undiscovered” reserves of 4.6 billion to 9.3 billion barrels of conven-tional
oil and 9.8 to 21.8 trillion cubic feet of gas in the North Cubabasin. Cubapetroleo, the Cuban state oil company, claims the country
has 20 billion barrels of recoverable oil in its offshore waters, sayingthe higher estimate is based on new and better information
aboutCuba’s geology than the U.S. government has. Repsol-YPF, a Spanishfirm, leading a consortium of other companies, has
already drilled test wells — encouraged by an earlier oil find in Cuban waters. In July 2004, Repsol identified five “high quality”
fields in the deep water of the Florida Straights twenty miles northeast of Havana. Cuba hasoffered fifty-nine new exploration blocks
in the area for foreign par-ticipation. Repsol, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp., and Norway’sStatoilHydro are among the companies
that are seeking explorationacreage in Cuba. Contrary to rumors circulated in the United States,Chinese oil firms do not currently
control any offshore explorationacreage in Cuba, but have expressed interest. Cuba’s governmentsays several more offshore wells
could be started by 2010. Cubahopes new exploration activity will help it raise its energy production from 65,000 barrels per day
(b/d) of oil and 3.45 million cubic metersa day of natural gas to 100,000 b/d of oil equivalent. According to Jorge Piñon of Florida
International University, Cubacould be producing as much as 525,000 b/d of oil once developmentof these resources is underway, 5
much of which could be exported tothe United States were sanctions to be eased.Cuba’s pursuit of deepwater oil and
natural gas resources is com-plicated by the ban on U.S. firms andpatented U.S. technology to be
used inCuba’s energy development. AlthoughU.S.-patented technologies or equipmentcannot be used, recently, other
companiessuch as Brazil’s Petrobras and Statoil havetheir own comparable technologies andare willing to invest in Cuba.Current
constraints to oil explorationand development in Cuba are related tothe scarcity of drilling rigs
and otherequipment as well as experienced labor.Much of the capacity to build platformsand other drilling
equipment as well asthe cadre of geologists and skilled blue-collar workers atrophied during the rela-tively low oil prices in the
1990s and espe-cially in the late 1990s as prices collapsedto $10/barrel. In response to high oilprices, the pace of exploration and
development accelerated and thecosts of drilling soared
solvency
cuba says yes
Cuba says yes to oil cooperation and having a response framework
BEFORE a crisis key
Dlouhy 11 energy policy reporter for The Houston Chronicle and other Hearst Newspapers from Washington, D.C (Jennifer A.,
"Embargo may block U.S. response to Cuban oil spill," 6/6/11, http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/06/06/embargo-may-block-u-sresponse-to-cuban-oil-spill/)//AM
He said Cuban
officials also have studied the report by the U.S. presidential commission that
investigated last year’s oil spill, and have expressed interest in talking with the U.S. government
about oil spill preparation and coordination.¶ The Environmental Defense Fund’s Whittle argues that by
working together now – before drilling begins – Cuba and the U.S. could share information on
standards and science.¶ “The Cubans would have a lot to learn on how to build out an
infrastructure to accommodate oil and gas,” Whittle said. “From an environmental perspective, I
wish this issue would transcend politics and the relative government agencies could work
together.Ӧ The United States already has plans with Mexico and Canada for handling oil spills in
shared waters.¶ The U.S. needs a similar accord with Cuba, said Thad Allen, the former Coast Guard admiral
who headed the Deepwater Horizon response.¶
Cuba says yes to cooperation
Franks 11 Reuters Chief Correspondent for Texas, based in Houston. Now on a short-term assignment to Havana (Jeff, "U.S.
urged to cooperate with Cuba on offshore oil," Huffington Post, 11/7/11, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/07/us-urged-tocooperate-w_n_953234.html)//AM
"It seems to me profoundly in the interest of the United States to ensure that should there be a
spill in Cuban waters ... that all efforts are undertaken by both government and private entities
in the United States to assist in responding," said Reilly, who is on a trip to Cuba.¶ The two countries need
to jointly develop protocols and plans for that to happen quickly, which has not been done
because of U.S. policy, Reilly said.¶ "The Cubans by every measure I have seen are open and
willing and interested in having more information and exchange with the United
States," he said.¶ The BP spill commission Reilly led together with former U.S. Senator Bob Graham of Florida
recommended that the United States, Mexico and Cuba, which share the Gulf of Mexico, cooperate
to prevent damaging spills.¶ The BP well, drilled in 5,000 feet of water off the coast of Louisiana took 85 days to control
and spilled five million barrels of oil.¶
Cuba says yes to oil cooperation
CDA 11 independent, non-profit think tank (Center for Democracy in the Americas, 2011, “As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of
Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest”
http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //KY
At MINCEX, the staff discussed the impact of the embargo on Cuba’s access to capital. Ministry staff said the
embargo is
harmful to Cuba’s ability to attract foreign investments, capital, and technology. Cuban officials
repeatedly emphasized that the country is open to any foreign investor, and that Havana would
welcome U.S. investment, subject to the same conditions it places on all foreign investors. According to a senior official in
Cuba’s diplomatic corps, when Cuba decided to drill off-shore in the Gulf of Mexico in the mid-1990s, the first
letters sent by Cuba’s government to invite foreign concerns to participate went exclusively to U.S.
energy companies. They declined interest, due to the embargo, and Cuba looked for partners elsewhere.
president has authority
The plan can be done through an Executive action--the president has
broad authority over Cuban policy
Piccone, 13 http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/18-cuba-piccone Opinion | March 18, 2013 Time to Bet
on Cuba By: Ted Piccone, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy//JH
The U.S. approach to Cuba has likewise undergone important changes since Obama took office. Since the expansion of travel and
remittances in 2009, hundreds of thousands of the 1.8 million Cuban Americans living in the United States have sent more than $2
billion to relatives there, providing important fuel to the burgeoning private sector and empowering citizens to be less dependent on
the Cuban state.¶ Much more, however, could be done. In his second term, Obama has a wealth of policy options
available to him through executive authority that would reframe U.S. support for the Cuban
people and advance U.S. national interests.¶ In his second term, the president can (and should):¶ •
Appoint a special envoy to open a discrete dialogue with Havana without preconditions to
discuss such issues as migration, travel, counterterrorism and counternarcotics, energy and the
environment, and trade and investment. Such talks could result in provisions that strengthen
border security, protect Florida from oil spills, break down the walls of communication that
prevent our diplomats from traveling outside Havana and help U.S. businesses export more
goods, and thereby create jobs.¶ • Authorize financial and technical assistance to support burgeoning
small businesses and permit trade in goods and services with certified independent entrepreneurs.¶ • Expand the list of
exports licensed for sale to Cuba, including school and art supplies, water and food preparation systems and
telecommunications equipment.¶ • Grant general licenses for journalists, researchers, humanitarian organizations and
others to facilitate people-to-people exchanges.¶ • Remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of
terrorism, where it does not belong, allowing a greater share of U.S.-sourced components and services in products that enter
Cuban commerce.¶ This list is not exhaustive; the president can take any number of unilateral steps to
improve relations and increase U.S. support to the Cuban people, as mandated by Congress. He can also
expect significant pushback from a well-organized and vocal minority of elected officials who are increasingly out of step with their
constituencies on this issue. (In the 2012 election, Obama’s share of the Cuban-American vote increased by 10 points in Miami-Dade
county.) He can win the argument, however, by demonstrating that these measures are in the spirit of the congressional mandate to
encourage a free and prosperous Cuba.¶ The trend toward reform in Cuba is evident and suggests that an inflection point is
approaching. Now is the time to employ a new paradigm by opening a long overdue direct dialogue with our next-door neighbor and
thereby test the willingness of the Cuban government to engage constructively, including on the case of U.S. citizen Alan Gross. By
invoking his executive authority to expand trade, travel and communications with the Cuban
people, Obama can continue to help them make the transition from subjects to citizens. The
moment has come to rise above historical grievances and extend that outstretched hand he so eloquently promised just four years
ago.
spill response mechanisms
The Dept of Treasury can authorize spill response – that solves
Whittle 11 Senior Attorney and Cuba Program Director, Environmental Defense Fund (Daniel J., "North American Offshore
Energy: Mexico and Canada Boundary Treaties and New Drilling by Cuba and Bahamas," speech to United States House of
Representatives, Committee on Natural Resources¶ Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, 11/2/11,
http://democrats.naturalresources.house.gov/sites/democrats.naturalresources.house.gov/files/content/files/2011-1102_HRG_EMR_Testimony_Whittle.pdf)//AM
First and foremost, the
Administration should take steps now to ensure that US-based ¶ companies
are pre-authorized to assist in preventing and containing major oil spills in Cuban ¶ waters.
Specifically, the US Department of Treasury should adopt a new general license that ¶ provides
authority to any qualified oil services company in the United States to send personnel ¶ to Cuba
in response to a request from Cuba, Repsol or any other oil company conducting ¶ operations in
Cuban waters; likewise, the US Department of Commerce should pre-approve the ¶ export of
vessels, equipment, and supplies needed for containment and response. This would ¶ allow
Repsol and other foreign oil companies to contract with US oil service companies in ¶ advance of
drilling. This is particularly important because of the proximity to Cuba of US firms ¶ with the
requisite deep water drilling and advanced response,technical, and planning capabilities, in
contrast to the distance between Cuba and other countries, such as the UK, ¶ Norway or Brazil, with state-of-the-art deep water oil
development experience.
Drilling is inevitable – Treasury Department should issue a blanket license to
initiate oil cooperation
Stephens 11 Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas (Sarah, "US-Cuba policy, and the race for oil
drilling," 9/29/11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/184661-us-cuba-policy-and-the-race-for-oil-drilling)//AM
At some point, it
is likely that drilling will begin and the United States ought to do what it can to
prepare for that eventuality. The U.S. government should facilitate access by Cuba and its drilling partners to the
resources they need to drill safely. President Obama should instruct the Treasury Department to issue a
blanket general license now that would allow private industry to provide what oil expert Jorge Piñon calls
”any conceivable response” in the event of a crisis. As we have already done with Mexico and Canada, the U.S.
should join Cuba in crafting a crisis response agreement covering on-scene coordinators, a joint
response team, response coordination centers, rapid notification protocols, customs and
immigration procedures, and communications. The plan should be written, signed, tested, and implemented as
quickly as possible. Earlier this year, the Deep Water Horizon Commission, which Mr. Reilly co-chaired, said in its final report “that
neither BP nor the federal government was prepared to deal with a spill” of its magnitude or
complexity; that industry and policy makers were lulled by a “culture of complacency” that
resulted in 5 million barrels of oil being dumped into the Gulf.
certainty k2 solve
Certainty is key to private sector investment
Hamilton 12 writer for Freedom Works (Amelia Hamilton, 8/23/12
“Government Regulation Slowing Energy Jobs and
Economic Growth”, http://www.freedomworks.org/blog/ameliahamilton/government-regulation-slowing-energy-jobs-and-econ)
//KY
Kathleen Sgamma of The Western Energy Alliance testified earlier this month before the House Energy and Commerce Committee,
Subcommittee on Energy and Power. In this testimony, Sgamma discussed how oil and gas producers are affected by
restricted access to federal lands. Drilling is up on private and state lands, but down on federal lands because “federal
governmental policies make it extremely difficult to operate on public lands.” She then went on to detail specific
situations in which development on federal lands was made so difficult that it had an adverse effect on exploration
and drilling which, in turn, stalled potential investment, growth, and employment. In closing, Sgamma said “In all these cases,
the general public loses out in terms of energy all Americans own and return to the American taxpayer. Small businesses, the engines
of our economy, are prevented from creating jobs and economic growth.”¶ Our government doesn’t seem to understand the
widespread issues caused by their actions. Energy problems are adding insult to economic injury as more Americans are hit in the
pocketbook. While an oil refinery hasn’t been built in this country since 1976, our government has loaned billions to help build and
improve a refinery in Cartagena, Columbia. That money could be better invested in the American economy.¶ The issue of
overregulation is neither new nor unique to the western states. Things like offshore drilling or drilling in ANWR would open
up vast reserves, giving our economy a much-needed boost. Jack Gerard of the American Petroleum Institute said that “We
need to see more than lip service from Washington about ending this stranglehold on economic growth. And this
is what people are paying attention to, and this uncertainty is having a detrimental effect on investment in the
economy and investment in American workers.”
Uncertainty hampers private sector investment
MarEx 11 (Maritime Executive, 1/19/11
“Gas-Only Drilling in Offshore Moratorium Areas Suggested”, http://www.maritimeexecutive.com/article/2005-10-20gas-only-drilling-in-offshore-moratori) //KY
Oil and gas industry groups are criticizing a provision in House offshore drilling legislation that would allow the government to offer
"natural gas-only" leases in areas that are currently off-limits to new production. The criticism is included in wider comments by
petroleum producers to the Minerals Management Service (MMS), which has begun collecting public comments as it begins
preparing an outer continental shelf leasing plan for 2007-2012. MMS asked for comment on the gas-only concept. Gas-only leasing
was included in a bill by House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo (R-CA.) that allows states to "opt-out" of offshore
leasing bans. States exercising the option could allow gas-only leasing, or oil and gas leasing. Senate legislation by Senator Lamar
Alexander (R-TN.) -- and supported by chemical companies and other industries that rely on the costly fuel -- also accepts the idea.
However, the American Petroleum Institute (API), in comments this week to MMS, says gas-only and gas-preference leasing would
offer the "false promise" of future supplies. The group says the concept would create uncertainties that
could dampen investment, since it is impossible to predict with certainty what types of resources will be in an area. "A
company might spend up to $80 million to buy a lease, conduct seismic testing, obtain the necessary permits, and drill a well(s) to
determine whether any resources are present in amounts that make the prospect economic," the group says. "A company is unlikely
to know if it had met the gas only or gas preference requirement until the capital investment had been made. Companies will
be reluctant to spend tens of millions of dollars to explore for and develop a prospect, only to be forced to
abandon the resource, stranding substantial investments."
add-ons
florida tourism (econ)
Drilling is inevitable, but US tech is key to avoid a catastrophic spill
that would gut Florida’s tourism industry
Bert and Clayton 12 US Coast Guard military fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations AND fellow for energy and
national security at the Council on Foreign Relations (Melissa AND Blake, "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill," 3/7/12, Polivy
Innovation Memorandum No. 15, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515?excerpt=0)//AM
The imminent drilling of Cuba's first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large-scale oil spill
in Cuban waters washing onto U.S. shores. Washington should anticipate this possibility by
implementing policies that would help both countries' governments stem and clean up an oil
spill effectively. These policies should ensure that both the U.S. government and the domestic oil industry are operationally
and financially ready to deal with any spill that threatens U.S. waters. These policies should be as minimally disruptive as possible to
the country's broader Cuba strategy.¶ The Problem¶ A Chinese-built semisubmersible oil rig leased by Repsol, a Spanish oil
company, arrived in Cuban waters in January 2012 to drill Cuba's first exploratory offshore oil well. Early estimates suggest that
Cuban offshore oil and natural gas reserves are substantial—somewhere between five billion and twenty billion barrels of oil and
upward of eight billion cubic feet of natural gas. Although the United States typically welcomes greater volumes of crude oil coming
from countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a surge in Cuban oil production
would complicate the United States' decades-old effort to economically isolate the Castro regime.¶ Deepwater drilling off the Cuban
coast also poses a threat to the United States. The exploratory well is seventy miles off the Florida coast and
lies at a depth of 5,800 feet. The failed Macondo well that triggered the calamitous Deepwater
Horizon oil spill in April 2010 had broadly similar features, situated forty-eight miles from shore
and approximately five thousand feet below sea level. A spill off Florida's coast could
ravage the state's $57 billion per year tourism industry. Washington cannot count on
the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. Oil industry
experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout. Moreover,
the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to
operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to
four knots, which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil
may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only, effective method to respond to a
spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants. If dispersants are not applied close to the
source within four days after a spill, uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or skimmed,
which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective. Repsol
has been forthcoming in disclosing its spill response plans to U.S. authorities and allowing them to inspect the drilling rig, but the
Russian and Chinese companies that are already negotiating with Cuba to lease acreage might
not be as cooperative. Had Repsol not volunteered to have the Cuba-bound drilling rig examined by the U.S. Coast Guard
and Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to certify that it met international standards, Washington would have had
little legal recourse.
Tourism is key to Florida’s economy
Hielscher 13 business reporter for the Herald-Tribune (John, "Business and tourism boost Florida economy," 5/15/13,
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20130515/ARTICLE/130519777?tc=ar)//AM
SARASOTA - Florida
has created 325,000 new private-sector jobs in the past two years, boosted in
large part by record tourism numbers that have continued into 2013.¶ In all, more than 26 million visitors came to
Florida from January to March, a 4.7 percent increase that represented the largest number of tourists in a three-month period in
history, according to Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing agency.¶ Those figures, released Wednesday, come as Florida is also
making strides in attracting new business to the state. Last week, rental car company Hertz Global Corp. unveiled plans to move its
headquarters and 700 jobs to Lee County.¶ Combined, the tourism surge and other economic gains have pushed
statewide unemployment to a four-year low, Florida Commerce Secretary Gray Swoope said Wednesday during a
visit to Sarasota.¶ There were a record 1,087,700 Floridians employed in the tourism industry during the first quarter, up 36,000
from the final three months of last year, said Glenn Hastings, Visit Florida's chairman and executive director of the St. Johns County
Tourist Development Council.¶ Tourism and recreation taxable sales in Florida increased 5.1 percent in January and February
compared with the same months in 2012. Average daily room rates rose nearly 7 percent to $136.45 even as average occupancies
jumped 2.3 percent to 74.1 percent in the first quarter.¶ “Coming off of a record year that has proven to be even stronger than we
initially estimated only adds to the momentum Visit Florida has been building on to make Florida the No. 1 travel destination in the
world,” said Will Seccombe, the agency's chief executive.¶ Swoope said that because of that high impact from
tourism, the state is investing to boost the visitor industry, already Florida's largest
economic driver and a magnet for a record 91.4 million visitors last year.¶ Visit Florida's budget swelled
from $22 million to $65 million in the latest legislative session.¶ The state also recognizes the importance of sports tourism, said
Swoope during an appearance at an Economic Development Corp. of Sarasota County luncheon attended by 115. ¶ In the legislative
session ended this month, $5 million in new money were earmarked for rowing facilities at Nathan Benderson Park in Sarasota
County, though the money has yet to receive approval from the governor.¶ A need to diversify But Swoope also said more work needs
to be done to diversify the Sunshine State's economy, historically heavily reliant on both tourism and the real
estate industry.
Florida’s key to the US economy
Ware 08 – Contributor to the Florida Trend, an expert publication that is one of America's most award-winning business
publications (Janet, “Top 10 Reasons To Do Business in Florida,” Atlantic Property Group, September 2008,
http://atlanticpropertygroup.com/newsdocs/Top%2010%20Reasons%20to%20do%20Business%20in%20FL%20%20FL%20Trend.pdf)//Bwang
The right talent, right facilities and right attitude keep Florida’s innovation economy surging ahead. Why come to
Florida? Just ask the 18.3 million people who already call Florida home. Or the hundreds more who move in every day. Many are
drawn here by sun, sand and sparkling blue water. But they soon realize the added benefits of the state’s innovative spirit, ready
workforce, business-friendly policies, global connectivity and exceptional quality of life. Florida is simply a great place to live, work
and do business. And while we’ve summed it up in 10 top reasons, we encourage you to read on and learn why you should
consider creating, investing or expanding your business here. 1 Technology Leadership For two years in a row, the publication Fierce
Biotech has ranked Florida among the top five regions in the world for attracting biotech businesses. Since 2006, research institutes
with names like Scripps, Burnham, Torrey Pines, SRI and Max Planck have found new homes in Florida, and they’re attracting the
attention of other innovative companies looking to relocate or expand. With 22,052 high-tech companies
employing 282,091 highly skilled workers, Florida leads the Southeast in technology-driven
business. According to AeA Cyberstates 2008 report, Florida is 4th among all U.S. states for high-tech
employment and 3rd for hightech companies. In 2007, Florida exported more than $13.3 billion in high-tech goods
and services, putting this state in the No. 3 position nationwide for high-tech exports. Hightech job growth
here is highly concentrated in two sectors: engineering services and computer systems design and related services — no surprise
given that Florida ranks among the top U.S. states for number of Science and Engineering Doctorates awarded. Florida has a
significant and growing presence in many cutting-edge economy sectors, including: Clean Energy, Life
Sciences, Information Technology, Aviation and Aerospace and Homeland Security and Defense. 2 Global Gateway Florida is
the strategic and economic center of the Americas . A prime geographic location, plus
economic and political stability, have put Florida at the center of trade and finance
throughout the Western Hemisphere. In 2007, Florida’s total international trade grew to $115
billion, fueled, in part, by a multicultural, multilingual workforce that is highly adept at facilitating
international commerce. In 2006 (most recent data), the total value of holdings by foreign-affiliated companies in Florida
reached $39.3 billion, employing 273,100 Floridians. Among the U.S. states, Florida ranks 9th in total value of inward foreign direct
investment and 5th in total employment by foreign-affiliated firms. Miami is second only to New York as a U.S
center for international banking. More than 70 foreign and domestic banks active in
international trade and finance have offices in Florida, including six of the 10 largest banks in
the world. Florida’s combined exports of goods and services amounted to more than $72 billion in 2007, helping to sustain more
than 1.1 million jobs. In addition, Florida ranks 6th in the nation in state-origin exports (those actually produced or with significant
value added in the state), which reached nearly $45 billion in 2007. Florida is a diversified global exporter of knowledge-intensive
services too, such as accounting, consulting, engineering, legal, medical, telecommunications and transportation services. Florida’s
services exports reached $27 billion in 2007. 3 Entrepreneurial Environment Small Business Survival Index 2008 ranks Florida as
one of the nation’s friendliest states for entrepreneurs, and the U.S. Small Business Administration puts Florida among the
most highly efficient states in fostering the birth of new businesses. In addition to 34 Small Business
Development Centers throughout the state and the Disney Entrepreneur Center in Orlando, all of which provide one-on-one
counseling, training and other assistance to entrepreneurs at every level, Florida is home to dozens of high-tech incubators,
accelerators and university-based research hubs. At the new Florida Institute for Commercialization of Public Research, a
collaborative effort of university tech transfer offices statewide, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs looking for potentially
lucrative investment opportunities can find information about Florida’s newest innovations, as well as business plans for start-up
companies seeking venture capital support.
4 Global Connectivity With one of the world’s most extensive
multimodal transportation systems, including 19 major commercial airports, 14 deepwater shipping ports, a vast
network of highways and railway connections and Kennedy Space Center’s one-of-a-kind Spaceport, Florida’s global
connections are difficult to surpass. The Network Access Point (NAP) in Miami serves as a major switching
station for Internet traffic coming to and from Latin America, while other high-speed networks, such as the
Florida LambdaRail and LAGrid, facilitate research and development efforts. In addition, Florida has some of the fastest and most
widely available networks for highspeed and wireless connectivity. Florida is the second most active participant in Sister City/State
programs in the United States, underscoring its worldwide connections and open business and cultural environment. And with a
vast network of 14 international offices, seven trade offices located around the state and 15 country-specific websites, Enterprise
Florida offers many vital services for businesses looking to locate in Florida from overseas and for Floridabased businesses looking
to expand internationally. 5 Business Climate Florida consistently ranks among the top pro-business states
in the nation because of its business-friendly tax codes and commitment to providing incentives for job
creation, capital investment, new and incumbent worker training and location in designated rural and urban Enterprise
Zones and Brownfield sites. Recognizing that businesses need certainty, predictability and efficiency, Florida’s regulatory agencies
and local governments are committed to providing quicker, less costly and more predictable permitting processes for significant
economic development projects without reducing environmental standards. Assistance in accessing enterprise bonds, micro-loans
and venture capital further contributes to Florida’s reputation as a great place to do business. 6 Workforce Talent Florida was
named the No. 1 state for workforce in CNBC’s 2008 “America’s Top States for Business” study, which rated the
workforce in all 50 states on such criteria as education level, number of available workers and relative success of worker training
programs in placing participants in jobs. Florida is one of only 10 states with a right-towork provision in its state constitution, and,
at 5.9%, Florida has one of the lowest unionization rates in the country and the 2nd lowest unionization rate in manufacturing
(2.8%). No Floridian lives more than 50 miles from an institution of postsecondary learning, and it shows. The number of
Floridians with associate, bachelor and advanced degrees has increased at almost double the national
rate since 2000, and Florida is 11th among all states for workers with advanced degrees. Florida’s
workforce is also one of the most culturally and linguistically diverse in the nation. More than 3.2 million Florida residents were
born outside the U.S., and 4.4 million are speakers of languages other than English. Best represented are speakers of Spanish (3.2
million), Indo-European languages (875,000) and Asia and Pacific Islander languages (218,000). The demand for skilled labor in
Florida is answered by many training programs designed to address industry needs. Customized programs and incentives, such as
Quick Response Training, Incumbent Worker Training and the industry-specific Banner Centers provide skilled labor to employers
in less time and at lower costs. Florida’s workforce training and incentive programs have been ranked 3rd best in the country by
Expansion Management magazine. 7 Business-Friendly Government Florida has a pro-business, pro-technology agenda for policymaking and business climate improvement. Thanks to the interactive website MyFlorida.com, many business oriented functions of
state and local government are easily accessible online. Tort reform has been a priority for Florida’s business-friendly leaders.
Recent actions include the elimination of joint and several liability, rate reductions in workers’ compensation insurance and classaction suit reform. Many business sector associations, including Florida Aviation Aerospace Alliance, BioFlorida,
Florida Defense Alliance, IT Florida, Space Florida, Florida High Tech Corridor Council and Florida Economic Development
Council, work tirelessly to ensure that Florida’s legislators remain up-to-date on issues impacting
global competitiveness. 8 World-Renowned Quality of Life The combination of sunshine, outstanding amenities and
economic opportunity has helped put Florida at the top of Harris Poll’s “most desirable places to live” since the survey’s inception.
And this year, Florida can boast the largest number of cities on Relocate-America’s 2008 “100 Top Places to Live,” the only list
determined by statistics and feedback from people who live, work and play in these communities. Already one of the world’s top
travel destinations, Florida is a natural choice for permanent residence by visitors who subscribe to a “play here, stay here”
philosophy. Climate is a huge draw with average annual temperatures hovering between 81 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit. Florida has
1,370-plus golf courses — more than any other state — and, with 1,350 miles of sandy coastal shoreline, plus 11,761 square miles of
inland waterways, there are plenty of opportunities for boating, fishing, snorkeling and other water-based activities. 9 Economic
Development Partnerships More than any other state, Florida’s economic development goals and
initiatives have been created and embraced as a statewide vision. Economic development organizations
throughout the state work together to help existing and prospective businesses find the right location(s) to match their needs.
Florida is one of the emerging forces in the innovation economy in large part because officials have
made a concerted effort to create the right conditions for creative, knowledge-based businesses to
thrive. The state is strategic about its economic development activities, which include funding
research and development, attracting venture capital, building state-of-the-art infrastructure,
fostering innovative high-tech firms and growing a qualified workforce. 10 Growth Economy While many
regions struggle to maintain the status quo, Florida’s economic engine keeps surging forward. To put things in perspective, consider
this: if Florida were a country, it would have the 19th largest economy in the world. Florida has
the 4th largest Gross State Product and is the 8th largest economy in the Western Hemisphere. And with
12 cities named to Economy.com’s “Business Vitality Index,” Florida has more than double the number of any other state. In terms
of personal income, Florida tops the Southeast, and its 2007 per capita income of $38,444 places it at No. 2 in the Southeast and No.
20 nationwide.
drug cartels
US oil investment expands relations—the status quo results in drug
cartels and instability
Perales 10 (José Raúl, Senior Program Associate for the WOODROW WILSON CENTER LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM and
Americas director at the chamber of commerce *citing Pinon a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center’s
Cuban Research Institute at FIU, “The United States and Cuba: Implications of an Economic Relationship” August 2010
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_Cuba_Implications.pdf)//KY
Since the Acuerdo de Cooperación Energética de Caracas and the Convenio Integral de Cooperación entre Cuba y Venezuela of 2000,
Cuba’s oil dependence on the U.S.S.R. has been replaced by Venezuelan dependence. Thanks to Venezuela’s President Hugo
Chávez, Cuba receives heavily subsidized petroleum. Cuba today consumes approximately 150,000 barrels of oil
per day, 93,000-100,000 of which comes from Venezuela (the rest comes from domestic crude oil and natural gas production),
according to Piñón. In exchange for the oil, Cuba offers Venezuela a mix of goods and services, such as medical services and
technical assistance involving upwards of 40,000 Cuban professionals. Under the agreements Cuba must pay 60 percent of its
Venezuelan oil invoice within 90 days of purchase in the form of bartered goods and services. The remaining 40 percent of the
invoice is to be paid in the lapse of 25 years, at an annual interest rate of 1 percent. Two thirds of Cuba’s petroleum demand currently
relies on imports, and Venezuela is the single source of these imports under heavily subsidized payment terms. This petroleum
dependency, valued at over $3 billion in 2008, could be used by Venezuela as a tool to influence a Cuban
government in maintaining a politically antagonistic and belligerent position toward the United
States. Piñón estimates that the value of the oil received by Cuba from Venezuela over the last six years (2003-2009) amounts to
more than $14 billion, of which nearly $9 billion has accounted for goods and services barter exchanges and over $5 billion long
term 25 years debt. Cuba has learned from past experiences and is very much aware of the political
and economic risks and consequences of depending on a single source for imported oil. The collapse
of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the 2003 Venezuelan oil strike taught Cuba very expensive
lessons. Only when Cuba diversifies suppliers and develops its offshore resources, estimated by the
United States Geological Survey to be at 5.5 billion barrels of oil and 9.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas undiscovered reserves, will
the Cuban people have the economic independence needed in order to consider a political and
economic evolution. A Cuban government influenced by its energy benefactors would most likely
result in a continuation of the current political and economic model. If Cuba’s future leaders are unable to
fill the power vacuum left by the departure of the old cadre, they could become pawns of illicit business activities
and drug cartels, and the United States could face a mass illegal immigration by hundreds of thousands of Cubans.
Carribean Drug cartels strengthen the Russian mafia—provide a
substantial profit
Seper, 1 Washington Times (Jerry Seper, 5/28/1, “Mexicans, Russian mob new partners in
crime”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/drugs/mexicans-russians.htm)//EM
The recent seizure of 20 tons of cocaine from two "fishing boats" manned by Russian and
Ukrainian crewmen has raised concerns that Mexican drug smugglers are doing business with
the Russian mafia. U.S. intelligence sources believe drug cartels in Mexico, considered among the world´s
most ruthless, have followed the lead of Colombian cocaine smugglers to form alliances with the Russian mob and
other Eastern European crime organizations. Led by the Arellano-Felix cartel in Tijuana, the sources said those
alliances have been firmly established and involve the shipment of both cocaine and heroin. Colombian drug cartels discovered the
Russian mafia as early as 1992. The Russians, who operated from New York, Florida and Puerto Rico, moved quickly to help the
Colombians import drugs into Europe through Italy. The Russian mobsters, many of them former KGB agents,
controlled numerous banks in Moscow and established others in Panama and the Caribbean to
launder hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit drug profits -- for themselves and the Colombians.
The partnership gave the Colombians a new market for their cocaine and heroin, nearly all of which previously had been destined for
the United States, and opened up for Russian organized crime what one U.S. intelligence official
described as a "a bank vault."
Russian organized crime causes miscalc and terrorism
Durch, 99 senior associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, D.C., where he codirects the project on Reducing Nuclear Dangers and Building Co-operative Security (William J.
Durch, “Searching for National Security: Threat and Response in the Age of Vulnerability”, The
Henry L. Stimson Institution, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchpdfs/SearchingforNationalSecurity.pdf)//EM
Frustration, crime, and corruption all afflict Russia, which thus far enjoys neither the prosperity of the West, nor its
freedom from armed transborder threats, nor its internal stability or look-ahead optimism. Coming across Russian borders is Afghanistan’s revenge, a
rising tide of narcotics transported in part by corrupt or criminal elements within the Russian military. The Russian military has lost its ideological
bearings, more than half of its end strength, its position in society, and the war in Chechnya. It has neither housing for its troops nor enough money to
pay them but does control billions of dollars worth of weaponry, ammunition, technology, and information. If recent analyses are even roughly
accurate, then significant
elements of the Russian government and military are at steadily cumulating
risk of coming under organized criminal influence, which could directly affect American security
by increasing the danger of nuclear , chemical , or biological weapons-related materials or
technologies reaching the international black market; and by halting or constraining
international cooperation needed to secure Russian nuclear forces and reinforce military
command and control. Public Opinion and National Strategy In a democracy, public opinion shapes public policy by indicating how
people may eventually vote, but on any given issue it may take several forms. For example, while more than 80 percent of the public agreed, when asked
in 1998, that terrorism is a “critical threat” to the United States, less than a third worry much about terrorist acts occurring in this country, and only 8–
12 percent volunteer terrorism as one of the top three international problems facing the United States. Public opinion leaders are even less vocal in
volunteering terrorism as an important problem. These volunteered views have not changed (within sampling error) for over a decade, even as public
policy has wheeled to face the perceived terrorist challenge at home. Other views, however, have changed substantially. When the Chicago Council on
Foreign Relations polled the public in 1986 on the most important problem facing the United States, 31 percent volunteered “war” or “the arms race
with the Soviet Union.” In response to the same question in late 1998, 21 percent (the largest block) said “don’t know.” Common perceptions on the part
of US and European publics and opinion leaders are important to crafting and sustaining collaborative threat management. Polls suggests a future
competitive-cooperative relationship, with each side tending to its economic interests but with grounds for joint endeavors against weapons of mass
destruction (WMD), terrorism, drug trafficking, and organized crime. (The prospects for joint US-European efforts to secure energy Executive
Summary ix supplies — an important priority for US leaders and the public — are not measurable from European Union polling.) Official US threat
perceptions have evolved in ten years from a close focus on the Soviet threat, nuclear deterrence, and Soviet-inspired instabilities abroad, to an
emphasis on threats from regional powers, proliferation of WMD, and the risk of terrorists acquiring such weapons. Deterrence has become a generic
capacity to dissuade, and nuclear forces “serve as a hedge against an uncertain future.” In other words, the United States retains its most powerful
weapons to confront the unknown. Preparations for major theater war (MTW) with conventionally-armed forces continue to absorb the greatest share
of security-related federal spending but spending is down by one quarter compared with ten years ago. Nuclear-related spending is down by two thirds
in the same period and no longer overshadows other non-MTW security spending; indeed, the fight against illicit drugs now captures almost as many
federal resources as do nuclear programs. Spending on “lesser military contingencies” like peacekeeping in Bosnia and actions with other members of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) against Yugoslavia is likely to equal or exceed the cost of the fight against drugs in fiscal 1999, if all
relevant support costs are allocated, reflecting the increased preoccupation of US forces with operations of this type. NATO’s collective action comports
with the US public’s invariably strong preference for multilateral over unilateral military action. While one suspects that the public may simply want to
pay less for overseas engagement rather than do more of them, its preference points toward allied or coalition action as the way ahead for conventional
military engagements of large size or long duration. The very high fraction of security dollars devoted to MTW may otherwise be misspent, as public
support for sustained, unilateral engagement of those forces could be difficult to generate. While the US National Security Strategy separates interests
and values in the timehonored fashion of realpolitik, the most vital US interest lies in maintaining the country not just as a chunk of populated land but
as an entity with a particular configuration of political power (representative democracy), economic relations (open markets), legal structures, and
personal rights, that is, a particular configuration of values. That the global “spread of modernity” in politics, economics, and human rights supports
America’s vital interests is clear if one takes but a moment to appreciate that states with weak, corrupt governments and destitute, repressed x
Searching for National Security: Threat and Response in the Age of Vulnerability populations become sources and transit points for, among other
things, international narcotics. Nature may abhor a vacuum but the drug trade loves it. Fear of the unknown or uncontrollable threat appears to be
hard-wired into our psyches. It abets worst-case planning and helps to account for the swelling emphasis on domestic counterterrorism and critical
infrastructure protection, programs designed to cope with potentially highcost events of unknown probability. Just as uncertainty about post-Soviet
interstate threats plagued defense planners in the early 1990s, uncertainty about transnational threats seems to be making vulnerability the pacing
factor of US policy as the decade closes. The worry behind the policy is that Americans have built for themselves an ultimately undefendable way of life.
The object of new policy is to reduce that worry but, without a realistic measure of true threat, there is a risk of creating a vulnerability-response
cascade that may pose its own challenge to the open society. Measuring Threat and Response There is a widely recognized need for better approaches to
threat assessment in the new national security environment. Important
dimensions of security threats include their
damage potential, how much warning we may have of their occurrence, and a sense of their
overall probability or “strategic likelihood,” not the likelihood of any particular action but a measure of predisposition to act.
To compare disparate threats — interstate, transnational, and ecological — ten-point scales were devised for warning
time and four separate dimensions of damage potential (depth, breadth, ripple effect, and recovery time). Averaged
scores on these five scales produce simple index of threat. Sample indices for historical and hypothetical events appear in the table below. (Likelihood
estimates are not factored into these numbers but may be found in the main text.) Of the sample threats evaluated, political-military
decay
in Russian sufficient to weaken its nuclear command and control system, increase the
probability of an accidental launch of some fraction of its remaining nuclear forces, or increase
the probability of WMD falling into terrorist hands, could have the most devastating
consequences
for the United States. While attacks such as that by the Bin Laden group against US embassies in 1998 were deadly, and
serious, their damage potential to the United States is less than that posed by economic collapse in Mexico, or information attacks that succeeded in
disabling some significant element of US infrastructure.
us econ
Lifting restrictions on energy exploration and production in Cuba
solves US economy
Kish 11 – Senior vice president for policy at the Institute for Energy Research (Daniel, “Even Cuba Understands What's to Gain
from Off-Shore Drilling”, US News, 11/20/11, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/on-energy/2011/10/20/even-cubaunderstands-whats-to-gain-from-off-shore-drilling)//Bwang
The administration's byzantine permitting requirements have lead to drilling rigs leaving U.S.
waters for countries that welcome energy production. Nearly 40 percent of the deepwater rigs that
were in the Gulf of Mexico before the moratorium have left. These rigs could have drilled an additional 60
wells, created 11,500 jobs and generated $6.3 billion in private sector spending. Instead of realizing
these positives, the Obama administration is exporting those jobs to other countries.¶ The economic benefits of energy
production are clear. If Congress permanently lifts the moratoria on energy exploration and
production in the Outer Continental Shelf, access to these vast resources would generate:¶ $8 trillion in
additional economic output (GDP);¶ $2.2 trillion in total tax receipts;¶ 1.2 million new, well-paying jobs
annually across the country; and¶ $70 billion in additional wages each year.¶ But while the Obama administration does
not seem to grasp the benefits of job creation and economic growth created by energy production, the Cubans apparently do.
According to NPR, geologists estimate there may be 5 billion to 20 billion barrels of oil off the coast of Cuba (between Cuba and
Florida). In the past, these resources have been out of reach, but because of the deepwater drilling
technologies developed by U.S. workers in the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba will be able to access these
resources for the first time. A drill rig is en route from China to Cuba and could start drilling as early as November.
at: off case
politics link turns
Obama’s political capital fails, but freeing up areas for oil cooperation
an olive branch that generates massive GOP support to deal with
issues like immigration
CSM 13 – (Christian Science Monitor, “Obama’s second term: Can he work with Congress?
(+video),” 1/20/13, http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/USA/DCDecoder/2013/0120/Obama-s-second-term-Can-he-work-with-Congress-video)//Bwang
“The president has been criticized by many people for his inability or unwillingness to spend a lot of time
stroking members of Congress,” says Ross Baker, a congressional historian at Rutgers University who is writing a book
on bipartisanship in the US Senate. “I think a lot of this is based upon the widely-accepted theory [that the]
power of a presidency is the power to persuade – which is perfectly plausible, and it was certainly plausible in the 1950s....
The problem is, there are no persuadables" today. ¶ But by focusing on issues of common ground
with the GOP, Washington could generate some bipartisan successes in the next four years. ¶ Immigration
and Energy¶ For one, the president could team up with Republican moderates and much of the party’s
leadership on immigration reform. ¶ “We believe that immigration reform is different in that it has a past, present, and
future of bipartisan support,” said Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. “What we’ve seen over the
last two years is conservatives, moderates, and liberals want this president and this Congress to act, and that’s different from any
other issue.” ¶ And the president could perhaps turn down the bellicosity on the Hill by working with some of his
loudest critics (though risking the ire of environmentalists in his political base) in one area that the deeply-red
right and the president could agree: energy policy. ¶ “We were encouraged by President Obama’s 2012 campaign
comments supporting an all-of-the-above agenda on energy, and his statements outlining support for oil and natural gas,” said Jack
Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industry’s powerful trade association, in his annual State of
American Energy address in Washington earlier this month. ¶ But Republicans rage about a disconnect between what the president
and members of his administration say they favor and what Republicans say is foot-dragging in building the Keystone
XL pipeline, exporting natural gas, or freeing
up more offshore areas for energy exploration. If
the president were to get behind any of these initiatives he’d likely have plenty of GOP support –
but that remains a large “if.”
Obama’s energy policies doesn’t sap political capital or trade off with
immigration
Harder 13 – Energy and Environment Correspondent, National Journal (Amy, “In
Washington, Energy and Climate Issues Get Shoved in the Closet,” National Journal, 2/6/13,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/power-play/in-washington-energy-and-climateissues-get-shoved-in-the-closet-20130206)//Bwang
While Obama maneuvers for a big legislative win on immigration, he’s moving on a parallel track
toward another win on climate change through Environmental Protection Agency rules
controlling greenhouse-gas emissions, which don’t require congressional approval. Fresh off a strong
reelection victory, Obama has more freedom to move unilaterally with EPA.¶ “He doesn't have to
expend political capital or ask Democrats to extend their necks on this issue,” said Kevin Book, an
energy analyst at the Washington-based consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. “He already won. He can control
the issue and move as fast or slow as he wants.Ӧ The EPA action will only further polarize efforts,
such as those by Murkowski on the Senate Energy panel, to move through Congress smaller bits of energy and
environmental policy.
Lifting the embargo is politically palatable – farm lobby and
humanitarian appeal – empirics prove
National Journal 13 ("Legal Affairs - How the Embargo Hurts Cubans and Helps Castro," 5/29/13,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/legal-affairs-how-the-embargo-hurts-cubans-and-helps-castro-20000513)//AM
The best opportunity for a larger step toward engaging Cuba may be presented by a combination
of farm-lobby clout and the humanitarian appeal of sending impoverished Cubans food
and medicine. Last August, the Senate voted by a surprising 70-28 majority to add to an
appropriations bill language sponsored by Sen. John Ashcroft, R-Mo., to end unilateral U.S. embargoes on
exports of farm products and pharmaceuticals to Cuba and some other nations. Although the three
Cuban-American House members are likely to block any similar Senate-passed measure this
year, the next President will have some potent allies if he chooses to exercise the kind of
leadership that Clinton has eschewed.
no link uniqueness
A handful of permits for new drilling in Cuba take out link uniqueness
but aren’t enough to solve
Kish 11 – Senior vice president for policy at the Institute for Energy Research (Daniel, “Even Cuba Understands What's to Gain
from Off-Shore Drilling”, US News, 11/20/11, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/on-energy/2011/10/20/even-cubaunderstands-whats-to-gain-from-off-shore-drilling)//Bwang
One year ago, the Obama administration ended it's blanket offshore drilling ban. But it replaced
its drilling
moratorium with a permitorium. The bureaucrats said they were allowing drilling, but they granted very
few permits and it took months to issue a permit for new drilling.¶ While the Obama administration is not
keen on producing energy domestically, the Cubans of all countries are going to use the technology developed by American
companies in the Gulf of Mexico to access their energy resources less than 100 miles from the coast of Florida. When Cuba
recognizes an economic opportunity that the administration does not, we should pay attention. ¶
Even though one year has passed since the end of the moratorium, the administration is still
issuing a reduced number of permits. Before the moratorium, the administration was issuing 72 permits per month
and now, a full year after the moratorium supposedly ended, they are only issuing 52 permits per month.¶ Not only
has the rate of issuing permits slowed, but the paperwork required to satisfy the administration's
bureaucrats has increased exponentially. Before the moratorium, the average permit application was 30-40 pages
long. Now a permit application is 3,600 pages long. This dramatic increase in bureaucratic paperwork will create some jobs—but
only jobs for more lawyers and more bureaucrats. Creating more work for attorneys and bureaucrats does not help the economy
grow.
US already made exceptions to the embargo—this would just be one
more thing
Sotolongo 11 – Associate Editor, Downstream Newsletter Group at Hart Energy Publishing
(Kristie, “Cuban Oil Rush Beckons U.S. Embargo Reform,” E&P, 7/27/11,
http://www.epmag.com/Production/Cuban-Oil-Rush-Beckons-US-EmbargoReform_86074)//Bwang
In 2001, the U.S. watered down its embargo to exclude agricultural exports, food and medicine.
By 2010, U.S. food, agriculture and forestry exports reached $366 million.¶ Surprisingly, America
was Cuba’s 5th-largest trading partner in 2009 after Venezuela, China, Spain, Canada and the Netherlands, despite
the trade embargo. Brazil, Japan, Italy and Vietnam followed closely behind.¶ If the U.S. is already trading with
Cuba, why shouldn’t the exemptions include energy?¶ In the end, Cuba will proceed with
exploration regardless of what the U.S. does.