“IF you drink alcohol, THEN you will get cancer” –Investigating how reasoning accuracy is affected by pictorially presented graphic alcohol warnings Daniel Zahra1*, Rebecca L. Monk2, and Emma Corder3 1 Department of Psychology, Plymouth University 2 Department of Psychology, Edge Hill University 3 Department of Psychology, Oxford Brookes University *Corresponding author. Dr Daniel Zahra, C506 Portland Square, Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon, PL4 8AA. e: daniel.zahra@plymouth.ac.uk Running Head: Reasoning accuracy in pictorial warnings Word Count: 3,486 Key Words: Reasoning, Pictorial Warnings, Visual Imagery, Inferences, Alcohol Declaration of Interests This research was funded by the Plymouth University Department of Psychology. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. 1 Abstract Aims: To examine variation in reasoning accuracy when evaluating emotive pictorial health warnings and their outcomes. Methods: In Study 1 individuals completed a version of the Wason selection task evaluating warnings in which content type (Alcohol, Non-Alcohol) and emotional valence (Positive, Negative) were manipulated using different images. Study2 presented people with If-Then warnings (alcohol-related or non-alcohol-related) and asked them to evaluate whether certain outcomes followed. Results: Study 1 found that when warning messages were about alcohol, there was no difference in reasoning accuracy between positive and negative content. However, fewer correct reasoning responses followed exposure to negative general health messages (t(152)=3.58, p<.001, d=.19). Study 2 suggested that when a warning involves considering the potential consequences of drinking alcohol, accuracy is improved when the content is negative. However, when considering outcomes that will result from abstaining from consumption, accuracy was greatest when the content was positive. This was supported by an inference by content interaction (F(3,171)=4.11, p< .01, 𝜂𝑝2 =.07). Conclusions: Negative imagery should be used with caution in health warnings. In some cases the use of pictorial images of negative outcomes may improve reasoning, however, their use in alcohol-related messages does not appear to be consistently beneficial. Goals for using pictorial warnings therefore need to be carefully considered when designing such warnings. 2 Highlights Negative imagery in alcohol warnings does not consistently improve the accuracy of the inferences people draw from such warnings. Outcomes of drinking alcohol are judged more accurately when warnings contain negative imagery. Outcomes of not drinking alcohol are judged more accurately when warnings contain positive imagery. Use of imagery in alcohol warnings should take into account the intended purpose – whether that is to convey potential risks associated with alcohol consumption, or promote potential benefits of abstaining. 3 1. Introduction The reasoning processes and cognitions elicited by exposure to health warnings remain a complex area requiring further examination (Ruiter, Abraham, & Kok, 2001). However, if heath messages do not elicit accurate reasoning processes, or if they create avoidant reactions, their behaviour modification goals may be negated. There is therefore a need to examine these reasoning processes in greater detail. Most health warnings can be reduced to the form of conditional statements. That is, “If you do p, then q will happen”. The Wason selection task presents individuals with rules or warnings and a number of situations on cards. Participants are then asked to indicate which cards must be turned over to determine whether the rule is true or false (Wason, 1968). Similarly, other conditional reasoning tasks provide people with information about the state of the world and then ask what can be inferred based on this information (if-then logic). The manner in which such conditional statements are approached is not consistent nevertheless. In conditional reasoning tasks, participants appear to accept more of the logically valid inferences when the content is related to real-world situations than when the content is based on abstract concepts such as p’s and q’s (Blanchette & Richards, 2010; Manktelow, 2000). It is also interesting to note that people tend to be more logical when reasoning about neutral than positive or negative content (Blanchette, 2006; Blanchette & Richards, 2004), except when the content relates directly to their experiences (Blanchette, Richards, Melnyk, & Lavda, 2007). Personal salience and emotive content therefore appear to be important dictates of reasoning processes. Such findings have clear relevance to understanding warnings on products such as tobacco and alcohol, given that how an individual thinks about the information presented is likely to guide their behaviour. However, to the authors’ knowledge, no work has examined how these effects might alter with the inclusion of emotive visual imagery. This should be of particular interest within alcohol research as those expected to draw conclusions from alcohol warnings typically have 4 some experience with alcohol, or are making decisions about their own current experience. The fact that the emotional content may influence people’s reasoning processes is also highly pertinent given the ongoing debate in relation to the use of emotive imagery in alcohol warnings. Warnings inform the public of potential hazards and direct people away from unsafe acts or objectionable behaviours (Stewart & Martin, 1994), and tobacco and alcohol warnings are now found on packaging worldwide (European Commission, 2012; Ford, Moodie, & Hastings, 2012; Hammond, 2011). Furthermore, Thailand’s government has proposed that similar images should be introduced on alcohol packaging (O'Brien, 2013), and the UK’s Faculty of Public Health (2012) has called for a factual “no-nonsense” approach to combining warning text and images on alcohol packaging. Accordingly, it has been noted that the ‘fear appeal’ of health messages is important (Witte, 1998) and there is a strong theoretical basis for such assertions (Leventhal, 1970; Witte & Allen, 2000). Large scale reviews and meta-analyses have concluded that effectively designed fear appeals and pictorial health warnings eliciting strong emotional reactions can effectively reduce smoking (Hammond, 2011; Witte & Allen, 2000). However, O’Brien (2013) questions the generalisation from research on smoking to alcohol, especially when evidence in favour of the utility of graphic alcohol warnings is scarce (Thamarangsi & Puangsuwan, 2010). The basis for assuming fear in health messages improves efficacy has been criticised (Hastings & MacFadyen, 2002; Sweet, Willis, Ashida, & Westman, 2003) and neuroimaging research (Kessels, 2014) indicates that fear arousing messages can create a defensive reaction (Janis, 1967; Witte & Allen, 2000), diverting attention away from the warning. Research on the effectiveness of such warnings on alcohol packaging is also inconsistent (Wilkinson & Room, 2009). 5 An unclear understating of the cognitive processes which occur in response to graphic health warnings may be a contributor to this inconsistency. It is therefore necessary to increase our understating of the cognitive and reasoning processes elicited by pictorial and emotive alcohol warnings (Agostinelli & Grube, 2002). If these warnings are not inducing the desired reasoning, then a change of approach may be necessary in order that resources be better allocated to address alcohol consumption. The aim of this research was therefore to adapt existing paradigms such as the Wason selection task (using real-world alcohol-related content) and a conditional reasoning task which replaces verbal terms in real-world conditional warnings with emotive imagery. Utilising both methodologies allows an investigation of how people respond to warnings, and an examination of what people infer given a particular warning and situation. The results are framed in terms of logical accuracy, and in practical terms relate to how accurate people are in evaluating and drawing conclusions from such warning labels. 2. Pre-testing of Visual Imagery In order to construct the necessary visual conditionals, 92 simple, high-resolution, and freely available images were collected by the authors. Images were compiled into an online format for presentation to an independent group of participants (N=26; 8 male, 18 female; Mean age 28 years, SD=10.67). Each image was presented separately and participants rated valence and arousal of each picture using the Self-Assessment Manikin (Figure 1), which has been used to assess similar visual stimuli (Lang, Bradley, & Cuthbert, 2005) [Insert Figure 1] 6 Images were then formed into pairs which illustrated warnings that were positive or negative, alcohol-related or not. Based on pre-test ratings, positive pairs were rated as more positive (M=5.60, SD=0.65) than negative pairs (M=4.59, SD=0.39; F(1,16)=17.15, p=.001, 𝜂𝑝2 =.52), whilst valence did not vary as a function of content type (Alcohol, M=4.97, SD=0.80; Nonalcohol, M=5.21, SD=0.68), nor did emotion and content interact (F(1,16)=.12, p=.738, 𝜂𝑝2 =.07). Arousal ratings did not differ as a function of emotion (Positive, M=4.44, SD=0.21; Negative, M=4.59, SD=0.14) or content type (Alcohol, M=4.54, SD=0.14; Non-alcohol, M=4.49, SD=0.22), nor was there any interaction (F(1,16)=.54, p=.474, 𝜂𝑝2 =.03). 3. Study 1 As outlined above, the Wason selection task requires individuals to test different situations in order to evaluate the truth of a rule or warning. Applied to alcohol, Griggs and Cox (1982) report a study where people were told that the law states “If a person is drinking alcohol, then they must be 21 years old”. They are then asked to imagine they are a police officer entering a bar where there is a person drinking beer, a person drinking cola, an older gentleman, and a young child. Their task is to indicate whose age and drink must be determined in order to tell whether the law is being broken in this scenario. In this case, the correct action is to ascertain the age of the person drinking beer and determine what the younger person is drinking (by turning over cards with verbal labels on each side relating to age and drink). If the beer drinker is under 21 years, or the younger person is drinking alcohol, the law has been broken. The other cases are irrelevant. The age of the cola drinker and whether the older gentleman is drinking alcohol or not have no bearing on the law1. The present study adapts this task in order to investigate how peoples’ evaluations of alcohol-related warnings are affected by the 1 Structurally, this scenario can be represented as “If p (alcohol) then q (21yo)”. The people in the bar represent states of the world corresponding to p (beer), not-p (cola), q (older man) and not-q (child). The ‘correct’ response, which allows a complete, logically valid evaluation of the law, is to choose p and not-q. 7 inclusion of emotive visual imagery. By manipulating the valence and presentation of the warning and available options we can establish the effects of visual imagery (positive or negative) and warning content (alcoholic or non-alcohol beverages). Of primary interest are positive and negative alcohol-related warnings as any differences here will speak most directly to the relative effectiveness of negatively valenced graphic warnings. The inclusion of non-alcohol related warnings provides a comparison group, whilst also informing us more generally about the impact of emotive imagery in warnings. In the studies reported here, alcohol-related warnings focussed on the consumption of a range of alcoholic beverages, including beers, wines, and spirits, whereas non-alcohol related warnings focussed on the consumption of fruit juices and water. 3.1 Method Participants The 153 people (14 men, 139 women; Age, M=21years SD=5years) who participated were postgraduate volunteers, or psychology undergraduates participating for course credit. Scrutiny of the undergraduate psychology programmes from which the students were sampled showed they are unlikely to have been familiar with the Wason selection task prior to the current study. Warning Materials A variant of the Wason selection task was used in which participants were shown a series of ‘cards’, and a warning. For example, “Each card has a liver on one side and the number of units of alcohol drank in a week on the other. Which cards must be turned over to test the warning ‘If you drink more than five units of alcohol in a week, you will develop liver damage’?” The cards presented depict affirming and negating cases of each part of the 8 warning; in this example, >5 units, no alcohol, a healthy liver, and a damaged liver (Figure 2). Participants could then select 1-4 cards before continuing to the next trial. [Insert Figure 2] Procedure, Design and Analytic Strategy Participants completed 40 online trials, consisting of ten positive warnings and ten negative warnings. Each ten included 5 alcohol-related and 5 non-alcohol-related. For each trial, participants were presented with the warning and the card options. They were then allowed to select the card or cards they thought needed to be evaluated to test the warning before moving on to the next trial. Each of the warnings also appeared with the terms reversed. For example, “If you drink alcohol then you will become depressed” also appeared as “If you become depressed then you will drink alcohol”. This controlled for the converse probability of the conditional statement which has been shown to affect the inferences people draw (Cummins, Lubart, Alksnis, & Rist, 1991). Data were subject to a 2 Content Type (Alcohol-related, NonAlcohol-related) by 2 Emotional Valence (Positive, Negative) repeated-measures ANOVA which focussed on logically correct responses (the proportion of participants’ responses where p and not-q were selected). Participants were also asked to complete the AUDIT (26), a 10-item questionnaire designed to screen for individuals suffering from or at risk of developing alcohol use disorders. The relationship between AUDIT scores and response profiles was evaluated using correlational analyses prior to consideration of their inclusion in the above ANOVA. 3.2 Results 9 Table 1 displays descriptive statistics for p-and-not-q choices across trial types, and the ANOVA revealed a significant main effect of emotional valence (F(1,152)=4.63, p=.03, 𝜂𝑝2 =.03) but not content type (F(1,152)=.002, p=.97, 𝜂𝑝2 < .001). [Insert Table 1] Logical accuracy was significantly lower in response to negatively valenced content when compared to positive content, but there was no difference between alcohol-related and nonalcohol-related content. These findings were qualified by a significant 2-way interaction between valence and content (F(1,152)=8.58, p< .01, 𝜂𝑝2 = .05), as shown in Figure 3.. [Insert Figure 3] Post-hoc repeated measures t-tests reveal that when the warning content is alcohol-related, emotional valence has no significant impact on how often people choose the logically correct p and not-q combination. However, when the content is not related to alcohol, positively valenced items lead to significantly more choices of the logically correct combination than negatively valenced items (t(152)=3.58, p<.001, d=.19). Scores on the AUDIT showed no relationship to patterns of responding, or to rates of any response in particular. 3.3 Discussion These findings suggest that the pictorial presentation of negative health outcomes in health warnings that are not related to alcohol may have unintended and adverse consequences, potentially decreasing the accuracy with which people process these warnings, and thus limiting their potential to positively affect behaviour. However, when warning messages were 10 about alcohol, no difference in reasoning accuracy was found between positive and negative warnings. These findings suggest that pictorial images of negative outcomes do not improve reasoning about alcohol-related warnings. It may be of interest, however, to note that for both types of warning in Study 1, accuracy rates are higher than the ~10% typically found for abstract (lacking real-world content) versions of the selection task (Manktelow, 2000; Wason, 1968). 4. Study 2 Study 1 combined trial valence and content, as well as controlling for image valence and arousal. However, in real-world warnings valence and content are typically found in certain combinations. Alcohol warnings are primarily negative (Glock & Krolak-Schwerdt, 2013), as with smoking warnings (Glock et al., 2013). Indeed, it is for this reason that many have warned of a potential boomerang effect following exposure to alcohol warnings whereby readers act contrary to the warning (Ringold, 2002). However, smoking and drinking also have potentially positive effects (Glock & Krolak-Schwerdt, 2013; Glock et al., 2013). It has also been noted that alcohol warnings targeting positive expectancies (utilising expectancyrelated messages) may be more effective than negatively worded health warnings. In order to provide a more ecologically valid comparison of alcohol warnings, study two utilised a collection of real-world warnings from published work (e.g. Brandish & Sheron, 2010; Cherpitel et al., 2003; Van Duyn & Pivonka, 2000) which fall into two categories; those which are negative and alcohol-related, and those which are positive and not alcohol-related. The terms in these warnings were then replaced with images, and people were asked whether particular outcomes followed, allowing an investigation of the inferences people accept from the different warning types. 11 4.1 Method Participants Participants were 58 (8 men, 50 women; Age, M=22years SD=6years) psychology undergraduates and postgraduate students participating voluntarily or for course credit (Age, M=22 years, SD=5.61). Warning Materials A collection of real-world warnings were selected which were either negative and about alcohol, or positive and not about alcohol. Words in these warnings were then replaced with images, creating ‘visual conditionals’ - “If p then q” statements in which the terms p and q are substituted for images. In conditional statements, the “If p” component is called the antecedent, and the “Then q” component the consequent. Additional information presented in the form of “Given p” is called a premise, and the component being evaluated (“Does it follow that q?”) is the inference. Conditional statements, premises, and inferences to be evaluated can be combined to create four problem types. These are commonly referred to in the reasoning literature as Modus Ponens (MP), Modus Tollens (MT), denial of the antecedent (DA), and affirmation of the consequent (AC) 2 . Table 2 details these four structures, the combinations of premises and inferences which constitute them, and the logically ‘correct’ responses in evaluation of each inference. [Insert Table 2] 2 To use the example of Griggs and Cox (1982) again, the logical validity of MP and MT can be seen by considering the statement “If a person is drinking alcohol, they are aged over 21 years”. Assuming it’s truth, which participants are typically instructed to do, by MP, if a person is drinking alcohol, then they will be 21 years old or over. By MT, if the person is not 21 years or over, then they will not be drinking alcohol. However, the rule says nothing at all about how old a person who is not drinking alcohol might be (DA), or what drink people over 21 years old will have (AC). 12 Recording how often people respond correctly to each problem type indexes their accuracy in evaluating inferences drawn from images only. This has implications for the simplification of warnings to image-only formats such as those that are commonly found in a range of settings, from road-signs to chemical labelling conventions. Images were chosen from the pool created for this research and negated instances of the image were represented by placing a large red cross through the image (Figure 4). This generated a selection of ten statements, five of which were related to alcohol, and five of which were related to other beverages. Because each statement could be accompanied by a premise image which affirmed p, denied p, affirmed q, or denied q, each of 5 negative-alcohol and 5 positive-non-alcohol visual conditionals appeared in each of the four problem types in Table 2. [Insert Figure 4] Procedure, Design, and Analytic Strategy Participants completed 40 online trials. Content types were blocked together and counterbalanced, and trials within each block were randomised. Accuracy across trial types was analysed using a 2 Content Type (Negative-Alcohol, Positive-Non-Alcohol) by 4 Problem Type (MP, MT, DA, AC) repeated measures ANOVA. This facilitated an investigation of the effect of problem type on people’s accuracy in drawing inferences. Although this does not allow consideration of the interaction between content and valence as in Study 1, the aim of Study 2 was to examine the accuracy of participants’ reasoning in response to types of warning messages typically found in relation to alcohol (negative alcohol warnings), relative to messages of a more positive nature and which were not related to alcohol (positive non-alcohol warnings). Reasoning accuracy was defined as the proportion of formally logically correct responses to each type of problem. For MP, this was the 13 proportion of “Yes it follows” responses, for MT, “No” responses were correct For DA and AC inferences, this was the proportion of “Maybe” responses. AUDIT scores were also included, as in Study 1. 4.2 Results Table 3 displays descriptive statistics for the accuracy rates obtained across each trial type. The ANOVA revealed a significant main effect of problem type (F(2.02,115.24)=170.28, p< .001, 𝜂𝑝2 =.75), suggesting that participants found MP and MT trials significantly easier than DA and AC problem types (all LSD post-hoc pairwise comparisons showed significant differences at p<.05 except between DA and AC inferences). [Insert Table 3] Furthermore, although there was no significant difference in response accuracy between positive-non-alcohol and negative-alcohol trials (F(1,57)=.76, p=.39, 𝜂𝑝2 =.01), content showed a significant interaction with problem type (F(3,171)=4.11, p<.01, 𝜂𝑝2 =.07), which suggests that negatively valenced alcohol warnings lead to better reasoning on MP and MT problems, but positively valenced warnings lead to better reasoning on DA and AC problems (Figure 5). MP shows the largest (and only statistically significant) difference between Positive-Non-Alcohol and Negative-Alcohol content (t(57)=-3.47, p=.001, d=-.47), followed by DA, MT, and finally least difference is found on AC problems between the two content types. Scores on the AUDIT showed no relationship to patterns of responding, or to rates of any response in particular. [Insert Figure 5] 14 4.3 Discussion Overall, negative-alcohol content appeared to lead to better reasoning on MP and MT but worse on DA and AC reasoning tasks. More specifically, the current findings suggest that negative alcohol-related messages lead to significantly more accurate reasoning in situations most likely to be pertinent to decisions to drink – “What will happen if I drink?” (MP). Interestingly, the second largest accuracy difference was for the DA inference –“What will happen if I don’t drink?” In this case, positive non-alcohol related images elicited higher accuracy than negative alcohol-related images (although this did not reach statistical significance). The largest differences in reasoning accuracy therefore appear to result from health messages which relate to reasoning situations most relevant to a drinker – what will happen if they drink versus if they do not drink. 5. Overall Discussion Much of the policy around alcohol warnings has been based on a potential overgeneralisation of the smoking literature (O'Brien, 2013), and there has been little research which has examined the conditional reasoning processes in relation to exposure to alcohol warnings, and how these may be affected by warning content. The current work therefore aimed to address this knowledge-gap - investigating the impact of content type and emotional valence in warnings. Specifically this entailed comparing positive and negative imagery across alcohol-related and non-alcohol related warnings. This was done by developing paradigms that assess peoples’ evaluation of the warnings themselves (Study 1) and investigating their evaluation of the implications of the warnings (Study 2). Study 1 found no difference in accuracy of responses between positive and negative warnings about alcohol. Yet, relative to positive content, negative content reduced reasoning accuracy on other health related 15 warnings. This would seem to suggest that people are no better at evaluating negative than positive warnings about alcohol and so there is little to be gained in this domain from making the content overly negative. There is a distinction here between evaluating emotional content, and the impact of any emotion generated by the content. Such a distinction underpins work related to anxiety avoidance which highlights a psychological immune system or rebound effect. This therefore suggests a potentially fruitful and informative area of future work. However, the current results appear contrary to what might be expected following the claims used to justify recently developed graphic warning labels (Hammond, 2011) and supports the assertion that graphic images are not necessarily beneficial (Thamarangsi & Puangsuwan, 2010). Nevertheless, the comparable reasoning accuracy presently revealed across positive and negative warning conditions suggest that there was equally no evidence that negative warning images had a more detrimental effect than their positive counterparts. Study 2 was therefore intended to provide a more ecologically valid comparison of negative alcohol-related messages in contrast with positive non-alcohol-related messages (those typically intended to promote healthy lifestyles). Here, results suggest that when warnings about alcohol are negative, people are more accurate at evaluating what outcomes will follow if they drink (MP). In this respect, the results of Study 2 seem to suggest that when trying to provide clear, understandable warnings about the consequences of drinking, accuracy can be improved by making the content negative. However, in the current study this is only the case when considering what the outcome will be when you drink alcohol. Such warnings therefore appear of most relevance to individuals already engaging in, or intending to engage in, alcohol consumption. If the goal of a public health initiative is to prevent initial alcohol consumption, people are more accurate (though not significantly so) at determining outcomes about not drinking alcohol (DA) when the content is positive. Concurrently, there was an 16 apparent improvement in the evaluation of non-alcohol warnings when the content is positive (Study 1). This might be used to improve understanding of the health benefits of activities other than drinking alcohol. It should be noted that the current research findings may not represent the cognitive processes which follow from exposure to alcohol warnings in alcohol-related environments such as pubs or bars. It has been noted that interaction with alcohol warnings in different contexts needs further investigation (Thomson, Vandenberg, & Fitzgerald, 2012) and research has shown that alcohol-related beliefs change across situational and social contexts (Monk & Heim, 2013a, 2013b). This means that in vivo examinations of alcohol-related cognitions may not replicate laboratory-based assessments (Monk & Heim, 2013a). Informed by recent research examining the effectiveness of smoking warnings in real-life contexts (Glock et al., 2013), future research may therefore be benefited by implementing the current paradigms in real-life drinking contexts. 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Health Education and Behavior, 27, 591-615. doi: 10.1177/109019810002700506 19 Figure 1 Self-Assessment Manikin used by participants to rate each image for valence and arousal 20 Figure 2 Example format of the Wason selection task presented in Study 1. 21 Figure 3 Percentage of trials responded to with selection of p-and-not-q (logically correct) by content type and emotional valence (Error bras: 95%CI). 22 Figure 4 Example of a visual conditional from Study 2 23 Figure 5 Interaction between problem type and content type on reasoning accuracy (Error bras: 95%CI). 24 Table 1 Percentage of trials responded to with p-and-not-q selections (accuracy) by content type and emotional valence. Content Valence Positive Negative Logically correct (p and not-q) Alcohol Non-alcohol 26.54 (31.96) 29.67 (31.26) 26.86 (32.72) 23.66 (32.66) 25 Total 28.11 (31.61) 25.26 (32.69) Table 2 Image pairs presented accompanying “If p, then q” for each possible problem type (inference), including the logically correct response for each type of problem. Problem Type Presentation Pair MP MT DA AC Given p Given not-q Given not-p Given q Does q follow? Does p follow? Does q follow? Does p follow? 26 Correct Response Y N M M Table 3 Participants’ reasoning accuracy (%) by problem type and warning content (N=58 for all cells). Problem Type MP MT DA AC Total Negative-Alcohol M SD 85.09 23.29 75.78 29.20 16.21 24.70 17.59 24.30 48.66 25.37 Positive-Non-Alcohol M SD 74.83 20.71 71.38 30.00 22.76 18.90 19.66 24.99 47.16 23.65 27 M 79.96 73.58 19.48 18.62 47.91 Total SD 22.00 29.60 21.80 24.65 24.51