Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney PROBLEM SET #2 Suggested Solutions 1. (2 points total) Manuel owns the only store on an isolated but populated island that sells bottled soda: Manuel’s Island Soda & More. (A) At the right is a graph that illustrates the market Manuel faces. Annotate the graph appropriately as you answer these three questions. What is his profit-maximizing quantity? 200 bottles per day What price will he charge? ~$1.75 What is his daily profit? ($1.75-1.50)*200 = $50 per day (B) Assume that the market Manuel faces alone is instead shared by lots of sellers in a perfectly competitive market, and that the sum of their individual quantities supplied at each price equals the quantity that monopolist Manuel would supply at that price. In that case, would the quantity and price be the same as the answers you gave in part (a)? Explain your answer. If the market were instead perfectly competitive, the equilibrium price and quantity would be at the intersection of the demand and supply curves. With the assumption that the sum of their individual quantities supplied at each price equals the quantity that monopolist Manuel would supply at that price, we conclude that the monopolist’s MC curve is the Supply curve for this hypothetical perfectly competitive industry. Equilibrium quantity would be ~260 bottles per day; equilibrium price would be $1.50 per bottle. A perfectly competitive industry produces a larger quantity (260 > 200) and sells that product at a lower price ($1.50 < $1.75) than a monopolized industry, all else constant. (C) Returning to the part (a) scenario: Monopolist Manuel must now pay the state a tax equal to 1¢ per ounce for each bottled soda he sells. Will he be able to pass the entire tax on to his customers? Or will he have to bear some burden of the tax? Explain your answer. At the right, sketch in a graph that supports your answer. Manuel cannot pass the entire tax on to his consumers because demand is not perfectly inelastic; demand is downward sloping. To draw the graph, we assumed 20 ounce bottles, so the tax is 20 cents per bottle. The tax shifts the MC & ATC curves up by 20 cents. Note that the ATC curve hits its minimum at the same quantity as it did before the tax was implemented. As shown at the right, the price paid by consumers for one bottle of soda increases from $1.75 to about $1.80 as a result of the increased costs (the tax). The seller, Manuel, sends the 20 cent per bottle tax to the government and retains $1.60. They have shared the burden of the tax. Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney 2. (2 points total) Now suppose instead that bottled soda is sold in stores that are in an industry characterized by monopolistic competition. (A) Pre-tax: At the right draw a graph that shows the profit-maximizing quantity of bottled soda sold in an individual store in a monopolistically competitive industry that is in long-run equilibrium before the tax is implemented. Label all your curves and points with subscript "1." Being in long-run equilibrium in monopolistic competition means the individual firm is earning zero economic profit. The ATC is just tangent to the demand curve at the profit-maximizing quantity (and still, of course, hits its minimum when it crosses MC). (B) Post-tax: Now each store must pay the state a tax equal to 1¢ per ounce for each bottled soda sold. In the short run, what effect will the tax have on the profit-maximizing quantity and price of bottled soda? Explain your answer. At the right, illustrate your answer using subscripts "2" in your graph. The tax increases both the MC & ATC by 1¢ per ounce for each bottled soda. You can make whatever assumption you want about the size of a bottle. If these are 16 oz bottles of soda, that’s an increase of 16¢ per bottle. If they are 20 oz bottles, it’s a 20¢ increase per bottle. In either case, both the MC & ATC curves shift up by the amount of the tax. Note that the post-tax ATC will hit its minimum at the same quantity as it did before the tax was implemented. The costs rise more than the price because demand is not perfectly price inelastic; demand slopes down. The profit-maximizing quantity decreases from Q1 to Q2; the profit-maximizing price increases from P1 to P2. The seller retains P2 – T after sending the tax money to the government. At the profit-maximizing quantity Q2, ATC>P2. Therefore the typical firm is now incurring economic losses, indicated by the shaded area in the graph to the left. (C) In the long run, how will the soda tax affect the stores in this industry? Distinguish between stores that leave the industry (why do they leave?) and stores that remain. In the long run, who will bear the burden of the tax? Sketch a new graph at the right that illustrates the pre-tax and post-tax long-run equilibria for a store in this industry. Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney The typical firm is now incurring losses, so firms will begin to exit the industry. Customers of the closed stores will start shopping at other stores, increasing demand for the remaining firms. This process of stores exiting and customers shifting to remaining stores will continue until the typical remaining store is earning zero economic profit. In the long run the customer will bear the entire burden of the tax, and will have fewer stores to choose from when buying a soda. The remaining stores will once again sell their initial profit-maximizing quantity Q1 but at a price that includes the entirety of the tax. 3. (3 points total) One argument in support of a bottled soda tax refers to negative externalities: drinking bottled soda contributes to obesity, obesity triggers Type 2 diabetes, obesity & diabetes generate health care costs, and health care costs are not borne completely by the individual. Assume that argument is correct. Assume bottled soda is sold in a perfectly competitive market that is initially in long-run competitive equilibrium. (A) In Community E, demand for bottled soda is relatively price-elastic. In Community I, demand for bottled soda is relatively priceinelastic. In the short run, in which community will the consumer bear a larger burden of the soda tax? ___________In the long run, in which community will the consumer bear a larger burden of the soda tax? __________ Draw two graphs (one on the left for E, one on the right for I) that support your answers, and below your graphs provide a brief explanation of your answers. In the short run, the consumer will bear a larger burden of the soda tax in Community I, in which demand is relatively price-inelastic. In the long run, the consumer will bear the entire burden of the tax in both communities. The drop in quantity sold will be much greater in Community E than in Community I because of E’s greater price-elasticity of demand. (B) Now compare two communities: one in which the median annual income is relatively high (say, $80,000 per household) and one in which the median annual income is relatively low (say, $25,000 per household). Where will consumers bear the greater burden of the tax in the short run: the high-income or the low-income community? Refer to what you wrote in part (a) to defend your answer. Demand for soda is probably less price-elastic in the relatively high income community because $2 for a soda is a smaller share of daily spending when annual income is $80,000 than when income is $25,000. In part (A), we concluded that those in community I – where demand was more price-inelastic – would bear the greater burden of the tax in the short run. Therefore, in the short run, the consumers in the high-income community would bear the greater burden of the tax. Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney (C) Suppose the proposed tax is the optimal tax in all communities, even though the tax is not the same in all communities. For example, the proposed tax is 1¢ per ounce in Berkeley and 2¢ per ounce in San Francisco. Offer an explanation for why the optimal tax may differ from one community to the next. It should be clear from your explanation that you understand the definition of “optimal tax.” If the proposed 2¢ tax is optimal in San Francisco and the proposed 1¢ tax is optimal in Berkeley, then the marginal damage costs must be greater in SF than in Berkeley. The “optimal tax” is one that forces the market to fully internalize the externality, which occurs when the tax is equal to MDC. Explanations for why MDC is greater in SF than in Berkeley will vary. We’ve got the same chain of events in both communities: soda → obesity → diabetes → health care → publicly-funded health care. Your explanation needs to focus on the aspects of the chain that could vary between two communities. For example, your explanation might reference greater initial levels of soda consumption in SF and a non-linearity in the eventual health care costs. Or you could appeal to greater publicly-funded health care costs in SF than in Berkeley. Or perhaps all else isn’t constant. For example, perhaps outdoor activity, which could offset the effects of soda on obesity, is greater in Berkeley than in SF. 4. (1 point total) The state of California provides public financial support for public colleges and universities: community colleges, the CSU campuses, and the UC campuses. But the state does not provide financial support for private colleges and universities such as USF, Stanford, USC, University of Phoenix, and the Claremont Colleges. Use economic concepts to explain why the state might support some colleges & universities and not others. There are positive externalities associated with education; that is, the individuals who receive an education are not the only ones who benefit. Individuals who receive a higher education receive better jobs and higher wages – a private benefit – but society also benefits from having a more educated population. More educated individuals are healthier, less likely to commit crimes, more likely to be employed, and more likely to vote. The government also benefits. If educated people are more likely to be employed and have higher salaries, the government can collect more tax revenue. Since higher education likely reduces rates of criminal activity, the government spends less on prisons and police for the state. (Crime is likely reduced more by finishing high school than by attending college, but it seems that higher education does help to reduce crime. For more info, you can read “The Effect of Education on Crime,” American Economic Review 94 (March 2004): 155-189 by Lance Lochner and Berkeley Economics Professor Enrico Moretti. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3592774) Higher education also leads to innovation: lots of great computer developments happened at Berkeley, and a few elements on the periodic table were discovered here as well. (Note that there is no such element as Stanfordium.) While not all of these innovations directly led to cost reductions or benefit increases to the state government, many of them likely have. For example, research on energy use, public transit, and city and regional planning is often directly related to projects built by the state government. Or, did you take a look at the article Prof. Olney tweeted on October 8: http://bit.ly/1BOhNKt showed the University research that goes into your smartphone. Notice how many of those institutions are public universities, and how much of the research conducted at private universities was funded by the government. All of which says: because education produces positive externalities, there is an economic justification for public subsidies. Those subsidies can be paid to the university in the form of state funding, or they can be paid to individuals in the form of CalGrants and so on. But why does the state support some colleges and not others? If some colleges and universities produce more positive externalities than others, there is a justification for supporting some and not others. So the question here is really this: what are the positive externalities generated by UC, CSU, and community colleges that are not generated by Stanford, USC, and the Claremont Colleges? If you grew up in California, how many of your K-12 teachers graduated from CSU or UC schools rather than private colleges? How many had attended community college on their way to getting a 4-year degree? Probably most. Public colleges and universities generate more teachers than do the private colleges and universities – a positive externality that justifies public subsidies. What about helping the world? The world’s poorest citizens have benefited from Berkeley graduates. Berkeley has produced the most total Peace Corps volunteers in the organization’s almost 50-year history (well over 3,000) which makes us the number 1 all-time producer of Peace Corps volunteers. Berkeley is also consistently in the top 5 of colleges and universities nationwide in producing Teach for America teachers. The benefits from Berkeley graduates’ giving back escape easy economic quantification, but they are vast in both economic and social terms. Simply put, Berkeley graduates have a tradition of public service that is unsurpassed. More so than any other university, Berkeley graduates take their education and use it to generate positive externalities around the globe. For more information, you can read Bob Herbert’s October 2009 NY Times article about UC Berkeley. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/opinion/03herbert.html?_r=1 Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions 5. Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney (2 points total) Asymmetric information problems beset many important markets. Some markets are plagued by problems of adverse selection; others by moral hazard. In the absence of a remedy, markets characterized by asymmetric information will fail. The classic reference is “The Market for Lemons,” by Berkeley Professor and Nobel Laureate George Akerlof, Quarterly Journal of Economics (August 1970), http://www.jstor.org/stable/1879431. Write a one-page essay in which you address these points: $ Give an example of a market in which there are asymmetric information problems. Your example can be historical or contemporary, but cannot be fictional. Describe the nature of the asymmetry and explain why it leads to market failure. $ How is the asymmetry in information addressed in that market (if it is)? Do you think that is the best approach to solving the asymmetric information problem? Why or why not? Specifications: 400 words maximum, one page maximum. (“Works Cited” list can be on a second page and does not count against the 400 word maximum.) Double space. 10-11-12 pt font. 1" margins on all sides. Your name, date, and the word count in the top right corner. Attach your paper directly behind the problem set sheets.. Grading: 0 - 1 - 2 points, taking into account content, following specifications, and writing quality. Of course, there are lots of specific examples, so we can’t provide you with “this is what you should have written.” Guidelines: a. Did you follow the specifications? Maximum 400 words? Maximum one page? 1” margins? Double-spaced? 10 or 11 or 12 pt font? Your name, date, and word count in the top right corner? Your essay stapled at the back of your problem set? Attached your “works cited” list (either at the end of page 1 or on a separate page)? If so, you remained eligible for full credit. If not, you lost a point right off the top. b. Did you choose an example of a market that is affected by asymmetric information problems? Did you describe the nature of the asymmetry and explain why it leads to market failure? Did you discuss how the asymmetry in information addressed in that market? If so, good! c. When you answered the questions about whether or not you think that is the best approach to solving the asymmetric information problem, did you recognize that this is a normative question? Did you remember that in order to answer any normative question, you must first explicitly state what goal we are trying to achieve? Did you explicitly state a goal, and then write up your analysis in light of that goal? If so, good! Here are two examples of asymmetric info from Fall 2013 problem set: b. The Affordable Care Act (aka, “Obamacare”) requires that everyone purchase health insurance. Use the concept of asymmetric information to explain why a health insurance market will work better if everyone is required to buy insurance. One type of asymmetric information is adverse selection: before a transaction begins (or, before a contract is entered into), one party to the transaction knows more about their present & future behavior than does the other party. In the case of health insurance, the person buying insurance knows more about their health and their risky behaviors than does the insurance company. If the health insurance companies could perfectly predict who was likely to get sick or injured and who was not, they would simply charge different prices based on risk. Those likely to get sick would pay a lot for health insurance. Those unlikely to get sick wouldn’t pay much at all. Everyone would pay something because getting hit by a bus is, by and large, a random event. Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney But because of asymmetric information, you know more about your health and your behaviors than does the insurance company. In the extreme, the insurance company doesn’t know if any given applicant is a high-risk or low-risk applicant. So the profit maximizing thing for the insurance company to do is to charge everyone a high price. But in that case the pool of applicants will be affected by adverse selection: the people buying health insurance will be disproportionately the sick people. Here’s why. If buying health insurance is an option, then it is likely that those people who know they are likely to get sick will buy insurance. They smoke and didn’t say so on their health insurance application. They never wash their hands. They drink to excess and didn’t reveal this in their application. There is a family history of heart disease or diabetes or cancer. Those are the folks who are likely to buy health insurance because the insurance premium is less than their expected spending on health care. At the same time, if buying health insurance is an option, then healthy people will not buy insurance. They don’t anticipate getting sick or having accidents. They live a healthy life style. Their family history is peppered with people who live to be 102 and then die in their sleep. These folks are unlikely to buy health insurance because the insurance premium is higher than their expected spending on health care. When the insurance company charges everyone a high price, then the low-risk healthy people decline to buy insurance. The insurance company will realize the pool of applicants is now an on-average higher-risk pool, and will increase premiums. More healthy people will drop out of the market because of the higher premium. This process – higher premium, healthy people drop out of market, onaverage less-healthy applicants in the pool, higher premium – has the potential to spiral out of control to the point where health insurance is priced so high that no one purchases it. On the other hand, if everyone is required to obtain health insurance, then insurance companies know the pool of applicants is a truly random sample of the population – healthy and non-healthy people alike – and can lower premiums for everyone. That’s the theory. For the background on these ideas, see the article by Berkeley economist Prof. George Akerlof, “The Market for ‘Lemons.’” http://www.jstor.org/stable/1879431 This article is based on the work for which Prof. Akerlof received the Nobel Prize in Economics. c. Rather than borrowing from banks, informal lending through kin, social, or community networks provides financing for small businesses and entrepreneurs in many countries. Use the concept of asymmetric information to explain why an informal lending network might work better than lending through banks. Both the concepts of adverse selection and moral hazard apply in this case. Again, adverse selection refers to something that happens before a transaction begins (equivalently, before a contract is signed): a non-random pool of applicants applies. Moral hazard refers to something that happens during the life of a transaction (equivalently, after the contract is signed but before the contractual obligation is complete): a change in behavior that affects the likelihood of completing the contract. In lending markets, the key idea is that the interest rate someone is charged to borrow should be a reflection of the perceived risk the borrower will default and not pay back all of the borrowed funds. With full information, borrowers who have riskier projects or who are themselves less likely to repay would pay higher interest rates than would borrowers with safe projects and who are very likely to repay. But borrowers and lenders don’t share full information with each other. In the context of lending, adverse selection means that the pool of applicants for loans will be disproportionately bad borrowers. The logic is similar to that laid out in part (b). Because lenders don’t know with certainty who is a good and who is a bad borrower, they charge a higher interest rate to everyone. Good borrowers drop out of the market because they are asked to pay an interest rate that is too high given the risk of their project and likelihood of repayment. Lenders recognize that good borrowers have dropped out of the market, that the remaining pool contains an even greater share of bad borrowers, and therefore interest rates are increased again. The better borrowers again drop out of the market. The spiral continues. At its extreme, interest rates rise so high that no borrower is left in the market. Department of Economics U.C. Berkeley Problem Set #2 Suggested Solutions Fall 2014 Economics 1 Prof. Olney Moral hazard in the context of lending means that there is a risk a borrower will change behavior once the contract has been signed, increasing the risk of default. For example, instead of using the borrowed funds for the safe project outlined in the loan papers, the borrower will use the money for a much riskier project. Or, instead of repaying the funds on a regular basis as the borrower had done with past loans (and therefore was expected to do with this loan), the borrower doesn’t make payments regularly. Knowing that moral hazard is a risk, if lenders cannot distinguish between borrowers who would and would not change behavior, lenders would increase interest rates. We get into the same spiral as outlined in the previous paragraph. In lending, solving the problems of asymmetric information typically involve developing ways of screening applicants (decreasing adverse selection risk) and monitoring borrowers (decreasing moral hazard risk). Screening applicants means discovering as much information about borrowers as possible before the contract is signed. Credit reports are one way that banks screen. If lending takes place within kin, social, or community networks, lenders are more likely to know borrowers than is the case with lending through banks. The more knowledge lenders have of borrowers, the less asymmetric information problems interfere with the market for loans. Knowing the borrowers well allows lenders to charge higher rates to the riskier borrowers, lower rates to the safer borrowers, and to be confident they have properly sorted borrowers into those “risky” and ‘safe” categories. Monitoring applicants means keeping tabs on the borrowers during the life of the loan. With banks, this is accomplished primarily by checking to be sure payments are made on time and, in some cases, to periodically pull a new credit report to see if the borrower’s behavior has changed in any other related area. If lending takes place within kin, social, or community networks, lenders are likely to know the borrowers. Monitoring is as simple as having Sunday dinner with your kin, chatting during a meeting of your social group, or dropping by your neighbor’s place of business. Being able to monitor borrowers allows lenders to be confident that borrowers will not adversely change their behavior during the life of the contract. Because networks can solve or at least reduce asymmetric information problems, lending increases. In a historical setting, economic historian Naomi Lamoreaux’s book Insider Lending: Banks, Personal Connections, and Economic Development in Industrial New England provides an analysis of the role of kin and social networks in facilitating lending in the early 1800s. In a contemporary development setting, see the article by Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, “Giving Credit Where It is Due,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24 (Summer 2010): 61-79. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20799155