Forecasts of Apprentice Intake into Selected Construction
and Non-Construction Trades to 2015
Final Report
Strictly confidential
Authors:
John McGrath – Research Manager
Caroline Shally – Researcher
Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU)
Planning & Research Department, FÁS
27-33 Upper Baggot Street
Dublin 4
September 2011
Table of Contents
1.
INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................... 3
1.1
1.2
2.
OBJECTIVE ..................................................................................................................................... 3
SCOPE ........................................................................................................................................... 3
SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS ............................................................................................. 4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 4
FORECASTING APPRENTICE INTAKE FOR ALL TRADES ................................................................................ 4
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY ................................................................................. 7
KEY RESULTS — FORECASTS OF APPRENTICE INTAKE IN THE CONSTRUCTION-RELATED TRADES ......................... 7
KEY RESULTS — FORECASTS OF APPRENTICE INTAKE IN THE NON-CONSTRUCTION-RELATED TRADES ................ 11
ASSESSMENT OF THE FORECASTS ...................................................................................................... 11
CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................................. 12
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 13
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.6
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 13
FORECASTS OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE CONSTRUCTION-RELATED TRADES .................................................... 13
FORECASTS OF APPRENTICE INTAKE LEVELS IN THE CONSTRUCTION-RELATED TRADES ................................... 19
FORECASTS OF APPRENTICE INTAKE LEVELS IN THE NON-CONSTRUCTION RELATED TRADES ............................ 21
APPENDIX A – BACKGROUND TO THE REPORT ......................................................................... 22
APPENDIX B – APPRENTICESHIP PROFILES BY TRADE ............................................................ 23
B1.
ELECTRICIAN ................................................................................................................... 23
B2.
CARPENTER AND JOINER ................................................................................................ 27
B3.
WOOD MANUFACTURER AND FINISHER....................................................................... 31
B4.
BRICK AND STONE-LAYER .............................................................................................. 35
B5.
PLUMBER ......................................................................................................................... 39
B6.
PLASTERER ...................................................................................................................... 43
B7.
PAINTER AND DECORATOR ........................................................................................... 47
B8.
CONSTRUCTION PLANT FITTER .................................................................................... 51
B9.
MOTOR MECHANIC .......................................................................................................... 55
B10.
VEHICLE BODY REPAIRER .............................................................................................. 59
B11.
MECHANICAL AUTOMATION AND MAINTENANCE FITTER......................................... 62
B12.
TOOLMAKER .................................................................................................................... 66
2
1.
1.1
Introduction
Objective
The objective of this study is to provide policy makers, who are responsible for
estimating the resources required over the next few years for the training of
apprentices, with a broad indication of the anticipated annual levels of apprentice
recruitment over the period 2011-2015 under a number of scenarios.
1.2
Scope
This report — the third in the series — provides forecasts of apprentice recruitment
for 12 construction and non-construction related trades in total, representing almost
80% of total new apprentice registrations in 2010. This report provides forecasts to
2015 under three scenarios. It covers the same apprenticeships as in the previous
reports with one exception.
A new wood manufacturing and finishing
apprenticeship has replaced two distinct apprenticeships — cabinet making and
wood machining —since November 2010. Recruitment of apprentices into the
cabinet making and wood machining apprenticeships has ceased and recruitment is
now into the wood manufacturing and finishing apprenticeship.
Forecasting the recruitment of apprentices into the other designated
apprenticeships is not possible at present, mainly due to the relatively small
historical recruitment levels in the apprenticeships and the lack of detailed
information in statistical classifications. Nevertheless, the Study Group on
Apprenticeship Forecasting intends to further explore the feasibility of developing an
appropriate forecasting methodology for these trades.
Table 1.1
Construction and non-construction related trades
Construction-related
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Non-construction related
Electrician
Carpenter and joiner
Wood manufacturer and finisher1
Brick and stone-layer
Plumber
Plasterer
Painter and decorator
Construction plant fitter
1
1.
2.
3.
4.
Motor mechanic
Vehicle body repairer
Fitter
Toolmaker
While the wood manufacturing and finishing apprenticeship is classified within the furniture sector, it is strongly
influenced by the projected levels of construction activity. Therefore, the forecasts of apprentice recruitment for
this trade are classified in the construction-related trades group in the remainder of this report.
3
2.
2.1
Summary of Main Findings
Introduction
It is particularly difficult to forecast future apprentice intake levels at this point in
time. This is because the level of recruitment for many trades in recent years,
particularly the construction-related trades, has been very volatile. During the
period of the construction boom, the numbers recruited reached unprecedented
high levels. In contrast, the numbers plummeted to record low levels in recent
years.
From a forecasting perspective, such extreme variations can pose particular
problems. A judgement has to be made, for example, on whether or not the average
ratios of apprentice recruitment to total employment, over a period which included
the construction boom years, were normal, or whether factors such as skill shortages
among crafts-workers or the inflow of a relatively large number of non-Irish
nationals, had a significant impact.
In the previous reports, it was assumed that in general the average ratio between
the intake level of apprentices in a particular trade and employment in that trade,
which prevailed over the period 1998-2006, would continue into the future when the
economy recovers.2
However, it has become apparent that the ratio between apprentice intake and
employment in the construction-related trades, which occurred during that eleven
year period, can no longer be relied upon as an indicator of future ratios. The ratio
began to decline in 2007 and it has continued to decline over the period 2008-2010
and during the first eight months of 2011. The current apprentice to employment
ratio is significantly below historical levels and is at its lowest level since comparable
statistics were recorded.
The variation in the annual ratios of apprentice intake to employment is graphically
presented for each trade in the trade profiles in Appendix B.
2.2
Forecasting apprentice intake for all trades
The fact that the historical relationship between apprentice intake levels and
employment no longer applies to the construction-related trades means that there is
no obvious methodology for forecasting the levels of apprentice intake.
Consequently, the Study Group on Apprenticeship Forecasting decided that in the
case of the eight construction-related trades, three different forecast scenarios of
2
In the 2014 forecast, there were three exceptions made — this was in the case of electricians, plumbers and
cabinet-makers respectively. The ratio was particularly high in these trades and consequently a variation in the
forecast for these trades was produced — the ratio was capped at 5%. There was also some variation in the
periods chosen in order to control for outliers or unevenness in the data.
4
apprentice intake in 2015 would be presented. These are referred to as the 19982010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the 2010 ratio scenario.
This approach should enable resource allocators to understand the potential
boundaries of future apprentice recruitment and to decide on an appropriate
strategy.
The three different forecast scenarios of apprentice intake for each constructionrelated trade in 2015 are based on applying three different apprentice
intake/employment ratios to the 2015 forecasts of employment in the relevant
trades. The ratios used are the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average
ratio for the period 2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
These three respective scenarios reflect the:
 longest period for which historical data is available,
 period since the start of the collapse of the construction industry; and
 the ratio for the most recent year (i.e. 2010).
The 2010 ratio scenario is based on the lowest ratio recorded to date. However, it is
not entirely implausible because the current number of unemployed persons under
45 years of age in each of the construction-related trades is exceptionally high.
Indeed, the number of unemployed crafts-persons is sufficient to fill all of the
vacancies which would arise under any of the forecast scenarios in 2015 — assuming
that all the unemployed are available to work in the relevant trade.
It should be noted that in the case of the four non-construction related trades, the
apprentice/total employment ratio is based on the average ratio over the period
1998-2010. This average ratio includes the years of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ and the more
recent period of economic recession and, consequently, should provide a reasonable
approximation of ‘moderate’ levels of recruitment over the projection period.
2.2.1 Calculating the forecasts for 2011 and 2012
It should be understood that the forecasts of apprentice intake in the constructionrelated trades for the years 2011 and 2012; the years 2013 and 2014; and for the
forecast year 2015 under the three forecasting scenarios have been derived using
different forecasting methodologies.
The forecasts for 2011 are based on adjusting the 2010 apprentice intake levels in
each trade by the magnitude of variation in apprentice intake levels between the
first eight months of 2010 and the first eight months of 2011. This method was
adopted as it should produce more accurate forecasts for 2011 as the apprentice
intake levels for most of the year are already known and it is unlikely that there will
be any significant variation in the trend to date before the end of the year.
It was also decided to carry-over the 2011 forecast to 2012 because at the time the
forecast was calculated, there were only a few months remaining in 2011 and there
5
were no indications from the industry or from the statistical data to suggest that the
apprentice intake trend to date would vary to any significant extent during 2012.
The same methodology is used to derive the forecasts of apprentice intake in the
non-construction trades in 2011 and 2012.
2.2.2 Calculating the forecast for 2015
The forecasts of apprentice intake in 2015 under each scenario are based on
applying the relevant apprentice intake/employment ratio to the forecast of
employment in the relevant trades in 2015.
The same methodology is used to derive the forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 in
the non-construction trades.
2.2.3 Calculating the forecasts for 2013 and 2014
The forecasts of apprentice intake for each construction-related trade for the years
2013 and 2014 are based on applying the compound annual growth rate between
2012 and 2015 to the year 2012, and subsequently to the year 2013 to give the
forecasts for 2013 and 2014 respectively.
The same methodology is used to derive the forecasts of apprentice intake in the
non-construction trades for the years 2013 and 2014.
2.2.4 The impact of non-Irish nationals on apprentice recruitment
The methodology applied in the previous reports also took account of the fact that
an increasing proportion of non-Irish nationals entering employment in the boom
years coincided with a reduction in apprentice intake into those trades — indicating
some displacement of apprentice recruitment by non-Irish nationals. The forecasts
of employment in the trades in this report are adjusted downwards to take account
of this factor, and the forecasts of apprentice intake are based on these lower levels
of employment. However, the impact on the forecasts is not significant.
2.2.5 The precision of the forecasts
The forecasts presented in this report should not be viewed as being absolutely
precise; rather they should be treated as providing a broad indication of what the
apprentice intake requirements are likely to be, given the assumptions underpinning
the Economic and Social Research Institute’s (ESRI) forecast of economic growth and
DKM Economic Consultant’s forecast of output for the construction industry; the
choice of the appropriate apprentice/employment ratios; and the estimated impact
of non-Irish nationals on the recruitment of apprentices in the trades, which are
based on judgement rather than statistical fact.
6
2.3
The outlook for the construction industry
The projected level of residential development over the forecast period has a
particularly strong influence on the recruitment of apprentices in the constructionrelated trades because activity in this sector is relatively labour intensive.
Most commentators agree that the long-term equilibrium level of new house
construction is approximately 45,000 annually. Only approximately 8,500 new
housing units were completed in 2010 and DKM Economic Consultant’s expect this
figure to contract further in the next couple of years.
While DKM expect a recovery in house building to begin in 2013, it is very difficult to
accurately predict the pace of that recovery. It is expected to be quite slow due to
the significant overhang of unsold houses in the market and the pervasive lack of
confidence in the house building sector.
DKM predict that 11,000 new housing units will be completed in 2015. This
represents only 13% of the peak level of new house completions which occurred in
2006.
The projected 11,000 new house completions in 2015 is below the long-term
equilibrium level of approximately 45,000, but this level may not be reached for
some considerable time. Even if the industry does eventually produce 45,000 new
houses annually, it should not be assumed that the demand for apprentices will
increase on a pro-rata basis. By that time, the level of physical infrastructure
investment, which is still quite high by international standards, may be somewhat
lower, which will dampen demand for apprentices in that sub-sector. It may also
take some considerable time before there is positive growth in the commercial
sector. Currently, this sector is characterised by high vacancy levels, weak demand
and a small number of transactions. There was a significant oversupply of
commercial property during the boom and it may take many years before the market
fully absorbs the excess.
The construction output forecast in 2015 produced by DKM Economic Consultants
translates into a total employment forecast of 112,000. Recent studies have shown
that on average, there are approximately 10 persons directly employed for every one
million euros spent on construction activity. The forecasts herein imply that each job
costs approximately €110,000 — reflecting the relatively low level of residential
activity. As the industry builds more new houses and moves towards the long-term
sustainable level of activity, the cost of each direct job created should decline to the
average of €100,000.
2.4
Key results — forecasts of apprentice intake in the
construction-related trades
Firstly, the projections of apprentice recruitment in the selected construction-related
trades in 2015 under the three different forecast scenarios are presented (Table 2.1).
7
Secondly, projections for each of the trades are provided on an annual basis for the
period 2011-2015 under each scenario (Tables 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4).
2.4.1 Summary forecasts of apprentice intake in 2015 — under the three
scenarios
The forecast of apprentice recruitment in the construction-related trades in 2015
under each of the three forecast scenarios are exceptionally low relative to their
peak levels.3 There is a significant difference in the projected level of apprentice
recruitment in 2015 between the different scenarios (Table 2.1). It varies from 3,150
apprentices under the 1998-2010 ratio scenario to 1,250 under the 2007-2010 ratio
scenario to a low of 560 under the 2010 ratio scenario. The 2015 forecast under
these respective scenarios represents 42%, 17% and 8% of the peak level (i.e.
corresponding to reductions of 58%, 83% and 92% respectively).
It should be noted that the forecast of apprentice intake in the trades in 2015 under
the 2010 ratio scenario is below the actual apprentice intake level in 2010. The
reason for this result is that the DKM forecast value of construction output in 2015
— and consequently employment in that year — are below the actual value of
construction output and employment in 2010 respectively.
The forecast of apprentice intake levels in 2015 under the two other scenarios is
above the 2010 intake levels. This is because the apprentice to employment ratios
which are applied to the 2015 employment forecasts are based on the average ratios
for the period 1998-2010 and 2007-2010 respectively and these ratios are
considerably higher than the ratio which prevailed in 2010.
Table 2.1
Construction-related trades – apprentice intake forecasts under the three forecast scenarios — 2015
1998-2010
ratio scenario
2007-2010
ratio scenario
2010
ratio scenario
2010
Intake
Peak
Year
2015 Forecast
2015 Forecast
2015 Forecast
373
2,270
1,240
640
340
Carpenter/joiner
96
2,127
890
230
90
Plumber
91
1,501
540
220
70
Bricklayer
10
680
130
30
10
Plasterer
12
311
90
20
10
8
161
60
20
10
13
340
150
50
10
Trade
Electrician
Painter/decorator
Wood manufacturer/finisher
Construction plant fitter
Total
30
114
50
30
30
633
7,504
3,150
1,250
560
Note: forecast figures have been rounded to the nearest 10 and may not sum to the total figures due to
rounding.
3
The year in which the peak level of intake was recorded varies by individual trade, but in general it occurs within
the period 2004-2006.
8
2.4.2 Summary of annual forecasts of apprentice intake—under the three
scenarios
For planning purposes, it is necessary to provide the forecasts of apprentice intake
on an annual basis over the forecast period. The forecasts for the years 2011, 2012,
2013, 2014 and 2015 under each of the scenarios are discussed and presented
below.
2.4.2.1The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The forecast of apprentice intake in the construction-related trades under the 19982010ratioscenarioprovides the highest growth of the three scenarios (Table 2.2).
However, growth does not emerge until 2013, at which point the expected gradual
recovery in the industry begins to raise apprentice intake levels. The recovery
continues through 2014 and 2015, reaching 3,150. This level of intake, however, is
only 42% of the levels recorded by these trades during their peak year.
Table 2.2
Construction-related trades – apprentice intake forecasts under the 1998-2010 ratio scenario— 2011-2015
Actual
Trade
Electrician
Forecast
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
373
360
360
540
820
1240
Carpenter/joiner
96
70
70
170
390
890
Plumber
91
120
120
190
320
540
Bricklayer
10
20
20
30
60
130
Plasterer
12
10
10
10
40
90
8
20
20
30
40
60
Wood manufacture/finisher
13
10
10
20
60
150
Construction plant fitter
30
30
30
30
40
50
633
630
630
1,040
1,780
3,150
Painter/decorator
Total
Note: forecast figures have been rounded to the nearest 10 and may not sum to the total figures due to
rounding.
The projected level of apprentice recruitment for electricians in 2015 accounts for
almost 40% of the total expected recruitment for the construction-related trades in
that year. This is because the demand for electricians is not as strongly influenced by
construction activity relative to the other construction-related trades. Nevertheless,
the 2015 projected figure is 46% below the peak level of recruitment of apprentices
in the trade.
2.4.2.2The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The level of apprentice intake in the construction-related trades is projected to
increase to 1,250 by 2015 under the 2007-2010 ratio scenario, which is a 60%
reduction on the level forecast for that year under the 1998-2010 ratio scenario.
The reason why the forecasts under this scenario are so much lower compared to
the 1998-2010 ratio scenario is because they are based on an average of the
apprentice intake/employment ratios which have prevailed since the beginning of
9
the severe contraction in the construction industry (i.e. the period 2007-2010; Table
2.3).
As in the case of the two other forecast scenarios, growth in apprentice intake is not
anticipated in the first two years of the forecast period. The apprentice intake level
is projected to increase by 24% in 2013 and to accelerate in the following two years,
reaching 1,250 by 2015. Despite the growth in apprentice recruitment envisaged
under this scenario, the 2015 forecast figure is only equivalent to 17% of the total
apprentice intake level recorded by all the trades in their peak years.
Table 2.3
Construction-related trades – apprentice intake forecasts under the 2007-2010 ratio scenario — 2011-2015
Trade
Electrician
Carpenter/joiner
Plumber
Bricklayer
Plasterer
Painter/decorator
Wood manufacture/finisher
Construction plant fitter
Total
Actual
2010
373
96
91
10
12
8
13
30
633
2011
360
70
120
20
10
20
10
30
630
2012
360
70
120
20
10
20
10
30
630
Forecast
2013
440
110
140
20
10
20
20
30
780
2014
530
160
180
20
20
20
30
30
980
2015
640
230
220
30
20
20
50
30
1,250
Note: forecast figures have been rounded to the nearest 10 and may not sum to the total figures due to
rounding.
2.4.2.2The 2010 ratio scenario
The forecasts of apprentice intake under the 2010 ratio scenario differs significantly
from the other two forecast scenarios in that an overall reduction in apprentice
intake is projected in 2015. The reason for this outcome is that the construction
output forecasts, which in turn form the basis for the employment forecasts (and
subsequently the apprentice intake forecasts) project lower levels of activity in 2015
than in 2010.
Table 2.4
Construction-related trades – apprentice intake forecasts under the 2010 ratio scenario — 2011-2015
Trade
Electrician
Carpenter/joiner
Plumber
Bricklayer
Plasterer
Painter/decorator
Wood manufacture/finisher
Construction plant fitter
Total
Actual
2010
373
96
91
10
12
8
13
30
633
2011
360
70
120
20
10
20
10
30
630
2012
360
70
120
20
10
20
10
30
630
Forecast
2013
350
80
100
10
10
10
10
30
600
2014
350
80
80
10
10
10
10
30
580
2015
340
90
70
10
10
10
10
30
560
Note: forecast figures have been rounded to the nearest 10 and may not sum to the total figures due to
rounding.
10
In the other two forecast scenarios, the lower level of projected output between
2010 and 2015 is more than offset by the application of ratios which are
considerably higher than the ratio which prevailed in 2010, resulting in a positive
trend in apprentice recruitment.
This forecast is the most pessimistic for apprentice recruitment. It assumes that a
combination of lower construction activity, the overhang of unemployed craftspersons and the availability of migrant crafts-persons, restricts recruitment over the
forecast period to the levels broadly pertaining in 2010.
2.5
Key results — forecasts of apprentice intake in the nonconstruction-related trades
The recruitment of apprentices in the four non-construction-related trades is
projected to increase significantly between 2010 and 2011, reflecting the magnitude
of the increase in apprentice intake levels between the first eight months of 2011
and 2010.
The projected increase in apprentice intake levels for both motor mechanics and
vehicle body repairers are relatively positive over the forecast period — reflecting
the general increase in the population and, specifically, in car usage.
Reasonably strong growth is also anticipated for both toolmakers and fitters, albeit
from a low base in 2010 in the case of toolmakers. The forecast demand for the
latter trade is partly driven by the anticipated strong growth in Irish exports,
particularly from the multinational sector.
Table 2.5
Non-construction related trades – apprentice intake forecasts, 2011-2015
Trade
Actual
2010
Peak
year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Fitter
65
403
100
100
120
150
180
Toolmaker
31
150
40
40
50
50
60
Vehicle body repairer
28
140
40
40
50
70
100
Motor mechanic
191
551
230
230
270
330
400
Total
315
1,244
410
410
490
600
740
Note: forecast figures have been rounded to the nearest 10 and may not sum to the total figures due to
rounding.
2.6
Assessment of the forecasts
2.6.1 Forecasts and current model of apprenticeship training
The forecasts presented in this report are based on the current model of
apprenticeship training. In particular, it is assumed that employers are solely
responsible for the recruitment of apprentices and that their decisions are strongly
influenced by the anticipated level of activity in the relevant sectors.
11
Obviously, the forecasts may not apply if changes are introduced to the model of
apprenticeship training over the forecast period.
2.6.2 The range in forecast apprentice recruitment levels for the
construction-related trades between the three scenarios in 2015
The forecast of apprentice intake in the construction-related trades presented under
the 1998-2010 and the 2010 ratio scenarios in 2015 could be considered as the
upper and lower boundaries respectively — based on current and historical trends.
As such, the forecast of apprentice intake under the 2007-2010 ratio scenario could
be considered to be the more moderate forecast of the three forecast scenarios.
There is considerable variation in the forecasts presented in this report. The
Apprenticeship Forecasting Study Group are of the view that the forecasts under the
1998-2010 ratio scenario are implausible in the medium-term because they are
based on ratios which are strongly influenced by the unprecedented boom in activity
in the industry. It is reasonable to assume that this ‘upper boundary’ will not be
achieved without a strong recovery. Consequently, the Group are of the view that it
would be imprudent to base the planning of future provision on this forecast.
Equally, it would be unwise to base planning provision in 2015 on the forecast which
is based on the lowest apprentice/employment ratio (i.e. 2010 ratio scenario) on
record. The Study Group are of the view that intake levels in 2015 will, in all
probability, be somewhat higher than the 2015 forecast under this scenario.
While the over-hang of unemployed construction craft workers and apprentices may
depress the recruitment of new apprentices in the short-term, the magnitude of the
over-hang may diminish in time. Furthermore, employers have continued to recruit
apprentices despite the availability of a very large number of young, qualified craftsworkers — and there is no reason to assume that they will change their behaviour in
this regard.
The choice of the appropriate forecast is a matter of judgement. However, the Study
Group are advising that it would be unwise to base planning provision on the
forecasts associated with either the upper and lower boundary scenarios.
2.7
Conclusions
In conclusion, this report provides a forecast of the probable level of apprentice
intake in four non-construction trades for each year over the period 2011-2015
inclusive. Due to the extreme volatility experienced by the construction industry in
the last decade, it was considered prudent to present three alternative forecast
scenarios of apprentice intake in the eight construction trades including what we
consider to be both the upper and lower boundaries of possible future intake levels.
The third forecast scenario represents an intermediate position between these two
boundaries and for that reason might be considered a guide for planning purposes.
12
3.
3.1
Methodology
Introduction
Over the last two years, the Skills and Labour Market Research Unit in FÁS have been
producing five year forecasts of apprentice recruitment requirements for the InterDepartmental Study Group on Apprenticeship Forecasting established by the
Department of Education and Skills and the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and
Innovation. Initially, forecasts were produced for six construction-related trades;
however as of last year, the forecasts have been extended to cover eight
construction trades and four non-construction trades. These trades account for
approximately 80% of total annual apprentice intake levels.
3.2
Forecasts of employment in the construction-related trades
The forecasts of employment for the construction-related trades to the year 2015
are calculated using two distinct methods. These methods are described below.
3.2.1 Forecasts of employment in the construction-related trades in the
construction sector
The forecasts of employment in the construction-related trades in the construction
industry were based on detailed output forecasts for 16 sub-sectors of the
construction industry for the period 2011-2015, provided by DKM Economic
Consultants for this project. The output forecasts were translated into total
employment using a regression equation which was tested retrospectively for
‘goodness of fit’.
The total employment figure was divided between those who work mainly in
residential development — including those who work on new units and in repair and
maintenance — and those who work elsewhere in the industry (i.e. non-residential
development) based on data provided by the Central Statistics Office. This data is
from its Quarterly National Household Survey and it is available at the level of
individual occupations.
Those who work in non-residential construction sectors are further divided between
those who work in physical infrastructure4 and those who work on other buildings,
both commercial and public buildings (i.e. general contracting)5. This division was
based on data provided by one of the largest private sector employers in the
construction industry.
4
The physical infrastructure segment of the construction industry covers investment expenditure allocated by the
Government for roads, water services, airports, seaports and harbours, energy and telecommunications and
public transport.
5
This segment of the construction industry is comprised of private non-residential construction and social
infrastructure. The private non-residential construction sector covers private sector building investment (new
and repair, maintenance and improvement) in the following areas: industrial, commercial, agriculture and
tourism, including hotels, restaurants and conference centres as well as privately owned cultural buildings such
as museums, art galleries, racecourses and marinas. The social infrastructure segment of the construction
industry comprises of public and private sector building investment (new and repair, maintenance and
improvements) in education, hospitals, public buildings, local authority services and public sporting facilities).
13
The advantage of creating a detailed sub-sector profile of current employment is
that it allows for a very refined forecast to be developed.
Of course, some of those employed in each of the construction-related trades are
employed in non-construction sectors. The forecast of employment in each trade in
these non-construction sectors is based on the same methodology which is used to
forecast employment in the non-construction related trades. This methodology is
elaborated in Section 3.4.
The model for translating the forecast of construction output for each sub-sector of
the industry into employment in the construction-related trades is illustrated in
Figure 3.1 below.
Figure 3.1 FÁS construction employment forecasting model
Total
construction
output
Total
employmen
t forecasts
Residential
sector
employme
nt
New
Employment by
occupation
R&M
Employment by
occupation
Non
residential
sector
employmen
t
G.C.
Employment by
occupation
Infra
s.
Employment by
occupation
Total
employment
forecasts by
occupation
Note:
New — refers to employment in new residential construction; R&M — refers to employment
in residential repair and maintenance; G.C. — refers to employment in general contracting;
and infras.— refers to employment in the physical infrastructure segment of the
construction sector.
3.2.2 Forecasts of employment in the construction-related trades working
in other sectors of the economy (i.e. non-construction sectors)
The DKM construction output forecasts, translated into employment for each of the
trades, provide a very good basis for forecasting the future level of demand for the
apprentices who are expected to work primarily in the construction sector.
However, some of the apprentices employed in the construction-related trades work
in sectors other than construction. This is particularly true of electricians but it is also
the case to a lesser extent for all the other construction-related trades.
14
Figure 3.2 presents a graphical representation of the employment forecasting model
used to derive the forecasts for those employed in the construction-related trades in
the non-construction sectors. As shown in the left hand side of the diagram, the
method consists of applying a ‘weighted average employment growth rate’ to the
number in each trade which is employed outside of the construction industry in the
base year (2010) and to each subsequent year of the forecast period.
The ‘weighted average employment growth rate’ is derived, first, by estimating the
average historical share of employment for each trade in each sector of the economy
over the period 1998-2005. These average historical shares of employment in each
sector are then multiplied by the annual projected FÁS/ESRI growth rates for the
period 2011-2015 in the corresponding sector. This gives an annual forecast growth
rate for each trade in each sector and these growth rates are added together to give
a weighted average annual growth rate for each trade over the forecast period.
These rates are applied to the 2010 employment stock in non-construction sectors to
give an annual employment forecast for each trade over the period 2011-2015.
The construction industry is not included in the calculation of the ‘weighted average’
because the forecast is only for employment for each trade in the non-construction
sectors of the economy. When this forecast is calculated, it is added to the forecast
of employment in the construction industry to provide a forecast of total
employment in the construction-related trades.
There are a number of caveats, however. In the case of the occupation of
‘construction plant fitter’, it is assumed that the numbers employed in this trade are
equivalent to the number of fitters working in the construction industry, and
consequently, the forecast of total employment in this occupation is based solely on
the employment forecast derived from the DKM output forecast for the construction
industry.6
In the case of the trade ‘wood manufacturer and finisher', unlike the situation in
respect of the other construction related trades, the construction industry is
included in the calculation of the ‘weighted average growth rate’. This is because it
was not possible to apply the detailed DKM output figures to this occupation 7 as the
numbers were too small. Consequently, the DKM employment growth rate for the
construction sector was used for all occupations in the calculation of the weighted
average growth rate.8
The reason why the overall growth rate is applied is because this individual
occupation is not identified in the official classification.
6
This assumption is necessary because this occupation is not classified in the official statistical occupational
classification used by the Central Statistics Office. Therefore, the number of fitters working in the construction
sector is used as proxy for the total number of construction plant fitters in employment.
7
This was the situation in respect of cabinet-makers. However, the more composite occupation of ‘wood
manufacturer and finisher ‘may facilitate the application of the DKM model and this issue will be explored during
the preparation of the next report.
8
The FÁS/ESRI employment growth rate for the construction industry is out-of-date and could be considered
overly optimistic.
15
3.3
Forecasts of employment in the non-construction related
trades
The method for forecasting employment in the non-construction trades is also based
on the ‘weighted average method’ but in this case the construction industry growth
rates, as derived from the DKM model, is included in the calculation. The FÁS/ESRI
growth rates for the construction are not used in the forecasts of employment
because they are considered to be out-of-date and overly optimistic.
Figure 3.2 provides a graphical representation of the forecasting model used to
derive the employment forecasts for these trades.
Finally, the FÁS/ESRI forecasts of employment for the different sectors of the
economy are those presented in the publication FÁS/ESRI Occupational Employment
Forecasts 20159, published in February 2010. The sectoral forecasts were provided
by the ESRI from its macro-economic model of the economy. Many commentators
consider the forecasts to be rather optimistic. However, in the absence of any other
detailed employment forecasts to 2015, there is no alternative to using the FÁS/ESRI
report.
9
Report No. 13. Occupational Employment Forecasts, 2015. J. Behan and C. Shally. February 2010.
16
Figure 3.2
Employment forecasting model for construction-related trades working in nonconstruction sectors and non-construction related trades working in the economy
ESRI Macro Model
Sectoral employment
forecast growth rates
Employment shares
Occupation x sector
2011-2015
1998-2005
10 sectors
CSO, QNHS
Weighted average employment
growth rate
2011-2015
Employment 2010
construction-related trades
in non-construction sectors
Employment forecast
2015
construction-related trades
in non-construction sectors
Employment forecast
2015
Employment 2010
non-construction-related trades
construction-related trades
in the construction sector
Total employment forecast
2015
Total employment forecast
2015
non construction related trades
construction-related trades
17
3.4
Factors influencing the recruitment of apprentices
There are many diverse factors which may impact on the recruitment of new
apprentices over the forecast period and these are discussed below.
3.4.1 The current significant number of young unemployed crafts-workers
and redundant apprentices
There are currently a significant number of young unemployed construction craftsworkers and redundant apprentices in the Irish labour force. This is one of the
possible factors contributing to the reluctance of employers to sponsor new
apprentice recruits over the forecast period. There was a total of approximately
138,000 persons employed in the construction trades in 2006 and this declined by
50% or 68,700 by 2010. However, it would appear from the figures that a
considerable number of unemployed persons emigrated during this period as the
total number of unemployed persons at the end of 2010 was approximately 40,900
(Table 3.1).
Moreover, the majority of those unemployed are below 45 years of age. It is
reasonable to assume that at least some employers who would normally recruit new
apprentices to meet their future skills needs are likely to recruit from the pool of
relatively young qualified crafts-workers and redundant apprentices. Consequently,
the existence of this large number of young unemployed crafts-workers may have
the effect of reducing the recruitment of new apprentices over the forecast period
to below the level it might otherwise be.
Table 3.1
Construction-related trades – Numbers employed in 2006 and 2010; numbers unemployed below 45 years
(annual averages – 000s; Q4 2010)
Number Employed
Number unemployed
2006
2010
Absolute
difference
2006-2010
Electrician
30,000
18,300
-11,700
3,800
5,100
Carpenter/joiner
39,800
18,700
-21,100
10,300
13,500
Plumber
15,500
10,700
-4,800
2,900
3,600
Bricklayer
16,900
4,500
-12,300
5,000
6,100
Plasterer
14,700
4,600
-10,100
4,500
5,600
Painter/decorator
11,900
7,100
-4,800
4,300
5,800
Wood manufacturer/finisher
5,500
3,500
-2,100
*
*
Construction plant fitter
3,700
1,800
-1,900
*
*
138,000
69,300
-68,700
31,800
40,900
Trade
Total
Below 45
years
All
persons
Note:
* The number of observations for the occupations of wood manufacturer/finisher and construction
plant fitter generated unemployment figures of less than 1,000. The figures are from survey data (the
Quarterly National Household Survey) which is subject to sampling error. In cases where figures are
less than 1,000 they are not reported as they are too small for statistical inference.
18
To quantify the possible impact of the potential ‘overhang’ of available qualified
crafts-workers and redundant apprentices, a replacement rate was calculated for
each trade and an estimate was made for the number of years it would take for each
trade to absorb the unemployed aged below 45 years. The result shows that if
employers gave priority to employing the unemployed crafts-workers and redundant
apprentices, there would be no recruitment of new apprentices over the forecast
period, assuming that all of the unemployed were available to work in the relevant
trades.
However, employers have continued to recruit apprentices in the trades — albeit, in
relatively small numbers — despite the existence of the large pool of unemployed
crafts-workers and redundant apprentices. Consequently, it was concluded that it is
not possible to model the impact of the ‘overhang’ on the future recruitment
decisions of employers.
3.4.2 High court decision on the joint labour committee’s system of wage
determination
The High Court has decided that the Joint Labour Committee’s system of
determining wages is unconstitutional. This decision may result in a reduction in
craft (and hence apprentice) remuneration levels and this may encourage employers
to increase their planned levels of new apprentice recruitment over the forecast
period, adding a further aspect of uncertainty to forecasting.
3.4.3 Forecast share of non-Irish nationals represented in the workforce
The forecasts of apprentice intake are adjusted for trades for which the inflow of a
significant number of non-Irish nationals coincided with a notable contraction in
apprentice intake, and where the proportion of non-Irish nationals has continued to
remain relatively high. This trend suggests that there may have been some element
of substitution between the employment of non-Irish nationals and the recruitment
of apprentices. The shortage of crafts-workers attracted a significant number of
non-Irish nationals into most of the trades, particularly after 2004 when Ireland was
one of only three countries within the EU to offer full employment mobility to
workers from the new member states.
For the purpose of the forecasting exercise, it is assumed that 5% of the workforce of
most of the trades in 2015 will be composed of non-Irish nationals. In other words,
the forecasts of apprentice intake are calculated solely on the projected 2015 Irishnational employment stock figure.
3.5
Forecasts of apprentice intake levels in the constructionrelated trades
Once detailed annual employment forecasts have been produced for each of the
construction-related trades, forecasts of apprentice intake levels are calculated
19
based on applying the historical ratio of apprentice intake to total employment for
each trade to the 2015 forecast employment figures.
In the previous two reports, the ratio which was applied to the 2015 employment
forecast figures was an average ratio for a period of time within the period 19982007. The average ratio chosen for a particular trade was for the period in which the
relationship between apprentice intake and employment was relatively stable. This
appeared to be a reasonable approach to take as there has been a strong historical
relationship between apprentice intake numbers and employment in the relevant
trades.
However, over the last four years, it has become apparent that the historical
relationship between apprentice intake levels and employment has ceased to exist.
Specifically, since 2007 the levels of apprentice intake began to decline and they
have dramatically contracted to date (i.e. 90%); far exceeding the decline in
employment in the construction industry over the same period (38%).
The fact that the historical relationship between apprentice intake levels and
employment no longer exists suggests that there is no obvious basis for choosing the
most appropriate ratio to forecast the levels of apprentice intake. In addition, there
are many diverse issues which may impact on the recruitment of new apprentices
over the projection period. Consequently, the Study Group on Apprenticeship
Forecasting decided to present three different forecasts of apprentice intake in 2015
based on three different apprentice/employment ratios, and these are presented in
the form of three different scenarios. A graphical representation of the model used
to derive the forecast of apprentice intake is shown in Figure 3.3.
The first scenario — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario — is based on the assumption that
the average apprentice intake to total employment ratio which prevailed over the
last twelve years (i.e. 1998-2010 inclusive) will assert itself over the forecast period.
The ratio calculated for each construction-related trade is applied to the
corresponding forecasts of employment for the year 2015.
The second scenario — the 2007-2010 ratio scenario — is based the assumption that
the average apprentice intake to total employment ratio which was experienced
over the last four years (i.e. 2007-2010 inclusive) — which corresponds to the period
when the construction industry has been contracting — will prevail over the forecast
period. The ratio calculated for each trade is applied to the forecasts of employment
for the year 2015.
The third scenario — the 2010 ratio scenario — is based on the assumption that the
ratio which occurred in 2010 and which is the lowest recorded to date for each
construction-related trade, will persist over the period 2013-2015. The ratio
calculated for each trade in that year is applied to the forecast employment figures
for the year 2015.
20
It should be noted that a different method was used to calculate the apprentice
intake levels in 2011 and 2012. At the time of the analysis, the apprentice intake
levels for each trade for the eight months of 2011 were known. Consequently, it was
possible to create a more accurate forecast for that year by assuming that the
difference between apprentice intake levels in the first eight months of 2010 and in
the same period in 2011 would continue for the remaining five months of 2011.
It was also assumed that the intake levels in 2012 would not differ significantly from
those which prevail in 2011, as all the relevant indicators suggest that the relatively
low level of activity in the industry will persist for at least another year.
With regard to the forecasts for the years 2013 and 2014, these are based on the
compound annual growth rate between 2012 and 2015.
3.6
Forecasts of apprentice intake levels in the non-construction
related trades
The forecast of apprentice intake for 2015 in each of the non-construction trades is
based on applying the ratio of apprentice intake to employment over the period
1998-2010 to the employment forecasts for the year 2015. This ensures that both
the recession years of the period 2007-2010 and the boom years of the Celtic Tiger
are included in deriving the forecast of apprentice intake in 2015. The industries in
which these trades are employed have not suffered the ‘melt-down’ experienced by
the construction industry. Consequently, there is no reason for limiting the
calculation of the apprentice/employment ratio to the period 2007-2010 or to the
year 2010. Thus, only one forecast scenario is presented for the non-construction
trades.
The method of calculating the forecast of apprentice intake for the years 2011 and
2012 is similar to the method used for calculating the forecast of apprentice intake
for construction-related trades in those years.
Similarly, the forecasts for the years 2013 and 2014 are also based on the compound
annual growth rate between 2012 and 2015.
Figure 3.3 Apprentice intake forecasting model — construction and non-construction
related trades
Apprentice intake/total
employment ratio
Total employment
forecast
(average historical ratio)
2015
Forecast apprentice
intake levels
2015
21
Appendix A – Background to the Report
In 2009, the Government established a committee, representative of the
Department of Education and Skills, the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and
Innovation, the Higher Education Authority and FÁS, to consider the impact of the
dramatic contraction in construction output on the future skills and training
requirements of the industry.
This committee, in turn, established a ‘Study Group’ which was given the specific
task of producing forecasts of apprentice recruitment for six construction-related
trades to the forecast year 2013. The Skills and Labour Market Research Unit
(SLMRU) of FÁS conducted the modelling exercise and forecasts were produced for
such trades in June 2009.
In mid-2010, the Study Group conducted the same exercise to the forecast year
2014. In addition, the Study Group was requested to estimate the apprentice
recruitment for as many of the remaining trades as was possible. A review of the
currently available data showed that a forecast could be made for six other trades,
including two additional construction trades, cabinet maker and construction plant
fitter. The SLMRU also conducted this forecast modelling exercise for 2014.
The members of the Study Group on Apprenticeship Forecasting are shown in Table
A1.1.
Table A1.1
Members of the study group on apprenticeship forecasting
Maurice Doran
Chair, Higher Education Authority
Padraig Creed
Department of Education and Skills*
Paul Keating
Department of Education and Skills
John McGrath
Skills and Labour Market Research Unit, FÁS
Caroline Shally
Skills and Labour Market Research Unit, FÁS
Justin Sinnott
Higher Education Authority
Nicola Tickner
Department of Education and Skills
*Padraig was replaced by Paul Keating, during the completion of this report.
22
Appendix B – Apprenticeship Profiles by Trade
B1.
Electrician
B1.1 Historical employment trends
With the exception of the trade of carpentry and joinery, the electrical trade
provides the highest employment among the designated trades. While the majority
of all employed electricians are working in the construction sector, there is a
significant proportion working outside of that industry, particularly in areas such as
utilities and manufacturing. The proportion working outside of construction is likely
to increase as activity in the construction sector continues to contract further. The
historical trends indicate this change in the distribution pattern of employment for
this trade. In 1998, 62% of all employed electricians were working in construction
and the share increased to 76% in 2007, reflecting the significant increase in
construction activity during that period. However, as construction activity began to
contract sharply since 2007, many electricians became unemployed and the
proportion declined to 63% in 2010 — almost equivalent to the proportion which
prevailed in 1998.
It is assumed that this trend will continue as some of the sectors of employment for
electricians, such as high technology manufacturing, are expected to exhibit a higher
level of growth over the forecast period compared to the construction industry.
Figure B1.1
Total employment of electricians and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
31000
29000
27000
25000
23000
21000
19000
17000
15000
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.0%
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
Employment of electricians almost doubled between 1998 and 2007, increasing from
16,400 to 30,400. Since 2007, the numbers employed declined dramatically,
decreasing by just over 12,000 to 18,300 in 2010, reflecting the severe contraction in
activity in the construction sector (Figure B1.1). These figures imply that the number
of net job losses recorded over the last four years was not significantly below the
number of net job gains experienced between 1998 and 2007.
23
B1.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
Despite the significant increase in employment, the share of non-Irish nationals
represented in the workforce of this trade peaked at 8% in 2007 and declined to just
below half this share in 2010 (Figure B1.1). This trade had the lowest representation
of non-Irish nationals in its workforce during the boom years of construction activity
relative to the other construction-related trades.
For reasons of safety, employers have to exercise great care in ensuring that any
electrician they recruit is suitably qualified and it may be difficult for employers to
determine if the level of qualification is appropriate in respect of some non-Irish
nationals.
For these reasons, it is assumed that the share of non-Irish nationals in the
workforce of electricians will be negligible in 2015.
B1.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
With the exception of the years 2002 and 2003, the annual level of apprentice intake
in this trade remained relatively stable during the period 1998-2007 (Figure B1.2).
The level increased from 1,660 in 1998 to 2,270 in 2006. However, there was a
dramatic reversal in this trend since 2006, with the level declining to 373 in 2010.
Figure B1.2
Annual intake of apprentice electricians; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010 (number; %)
3000
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2000
1000
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B1.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
There are a significant number of unemployed electrical crafts-persons and
redundant apprentices in the Irish labour force. The number of persons employed in
the trade declined by 11,700 between 2006 and 2010, from 30,000 in 2006 (Table
B1.1).
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, there were just over 5,000 unemployed
persons and almost 4,000 of these were aged below 45 years. Given the existence of
a relatively large pool of young unemployed persons, it is likely that this will result in
some employers recruiting a smaller number of new apprentices into the trade over
24
the forecast period. It should be noted that not all of the unemployed will be
available to work in the trade due to factors such as emigration, retirement, sickness
etc.
Table B1.1
Electricians — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers unemployed aged
below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers — ‘000s)
Number employed
All ages
2006
30,000
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
<45 years
All ages
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
18,300
-11,700
3,800
5,100
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
B1.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of electricians is projected to continue declining until 2011 and to
stabilise in 2012, measuring almost 16,000 at the end of 2012 (Figure B1.3). It is
anticipated that employment will return to a positive trend in 2013, reaching just
under 17,000 in 2015. The reversed trend in employment from 2013 to the end of
the forecast period reflects DKM’s expectation of some recovery in house building,
albeit from an exceptionally low level.
Figure B1.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of electricians
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
0
B1.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B1.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B1.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
25
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment over the period 19982010 is 7.4%. When this ratio is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment of
16,800, the apprentice recruitment requirement is 1,240.
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment over the period 20072010 is 3.8%. When this ratio is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment for the
trade, the apprentice recruitment requirement is 640 in 2015.
The 2010 ratio scenario
The ratio of apprentice intake to total employment in 2010 is 2%. When this ratio is
applied to the 2015 forecast of employment for the trade, the apprentice
recruitment requirement is 340.
Figure B1.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of electricians under the three
forecast scenarios
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B1.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of electricians under the
three forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
1998-2010
2007-2010
2010
ratio scenario
ratio scenario
ratio scenario
Actual
1998
16,400
1,660
1,660
1,660
1999
17,600
1,921
1,921
1,921
2000
21,000
2,151
2,151
2,151
2001
21,300
2,156
2,156
2,156
2002
22,700
1,813
1,813
1,813
2003
24,100
1,770
1,770
1,770
2004
24,600
2,031
2,031
2,031
2005
27,500
2,159
2,159
2,159
2006
30,000
2,270
2,270
2,270
2007
30,400
2,055
2,055
2,055
2008
27,300
1,108
1,108
1,108
2009
20,800
522
522
522
2010
18,300
373
373
373
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
16,200
15,900
16,100
16,400
16,800
360
360
540
820
1,240
26
360
360
440
530
640
360
360
350
350
340
B2.
Carpenter and Joiner
B2.1 Historical employment trends
Traditionally, the trade of carpentry and joinery accounted for the largest number of
persons employed among the designated trades. Four fifths of those employed in
this trade are working in the construction sector, particularly in the housing subsector.
Employment in this trade increased from 22,200 in 1998 to reach a peak level of
43,400 in 2007; almost a two-fold increase in the numbers employed (Figure B2.1).
Following a modest decline in 2008, employment began to contract sharply,
declining to 18,700 in 2010. This represents almost a 60% reduction in employment
when compared to the peak level.
Figure B2.1
Total employment of carpenters and joiners and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
45,000
20.0%
40,000
15.0%
35,000
30,000
10.0%
25,000
5.0%
20,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
15,000
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B2.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The share of non-Irish nationals represented in the workforce of carpenters and
joiners was 5% in 2004; it increased to 9% in 2005 before peaking at 16% in 2007
(Figure B2.1). Although the share has declined since 2007, it continued to remain at
a high proportion, 13% in 2010.
B2.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The apprentice recruitment levels began to contract two years prior to when the
employment levels of this trade began to decline (Figure B2.2). With the exception
of the year 2002, the apprentice recruitment levels increased steadily between 1998
and 2005, mirroring the increases in the employment stock. The apprentice
recruitment level peaked at 2,127 in 2005 and deteriorated rapidly thereafter,
reaching 94 in 2010.
27
The increase in the recruitment of non-Irish nationals between 2005 and 2007 may
have had a negative impact on the apprentice recruitment levels. Although, the
share of non-Irish nationals in 2006 remained similar to the 2005 share, the number
was relatively high. This trend suggests that some employers may have substituted
non-Irish workers for apprentices. In the forecasting exercise, the forecast of
employment in 2015 is adjusted downwards to take account of an assumed 5% share
of non-Irish nationals in the workforce of this trade. Hence, the forecast of
apprentice intake in 2015 is based solely on the Irish-national employment stock.
Figure B2.2
Annual intake of apprentice carpenters and joiners; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
2500
7.0%
6.0%
2000
5.0%
1500
4.0%
1000
3.0%
2.0%
500
1.0%
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B2.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
The existence of a relatively large number of young unemployed crafts-workers and
redundant apprentices in this trade in the Irish labour force may result in some
employers recruiting a smaller number of new apprentices into the trade over the
forecast period.
There were approximately 39,800 persons employed in this trade in 2006 and this
decreased by 53% by 2010. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the total number
unemployed was approximately 13,500, suggesting that a considerable number of
the unemployed may have emigrated between 2006 and 2010 (Table B2.1).
Table B2.1
Carpenters and joiners — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers
unemployed aged below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers — ‘000s)
Number employed
All ages
2006
39,800
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
<45 years
All ages
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
18,700
-21,100
10,300
13,500
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
Moreover, over three-quarters of those unemployed in the final quarter of 2010
were below 45 years of age. However, it should be noted that not all of those
28
unemployed may be available to work in the trade due to factors such as emigration,
illness, death, etc. over the projection period. Nevertheless, it is likely that some of
the unemployed will be available to fill vacancies that arise over the forecast period
— thereby reducing some employers’ need to recruit new apprentices.
B2.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of carpenters and joiners is projected to continue declining until 2012
and to return to an upward trend in 2013 (Figure B2.3 and Table B2.2). It is expected
to reach 17,600 by the end of 2015, reflecting DKM’s expectation of some recovery
in both new house building and residential repair and maintenance activity from the
year 2013.
Figure B2.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of carpenters and joiners
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
49,000
44,000
39,000
34,000
29,000
24,000
19,000
14,000
B2.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B2.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B2.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 2015 employment forecast of carpenters and joiners of approximately 17,600 is
reduced by the anticipated 5% share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce of the
trade in that year. Consequently, the forecast of apprentice intake is calculated on
the Irish-national employment stock of approximately 16,700 in 2015.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 5.3% for the period
1998-2010 is applied to the 2015 forecast Irish-national employment stock and this
gives an apprentice recruitment requirement of 890.
29
The2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 1.4% for the period
2007-2010 is applied to the 2015 forecast Irish-national employment stock and this
gives an apprentice recruitment requirement of 230.
The 2010 ratio scenario
The 2010 ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 0.5% is applied to the
2015 forecast Irish-national employment stock and this gives an apprentice
recruitment requirement of 90.
Figure B2.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake for carpenters and joiners under the
three forecast scenarios
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B2.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake for carpenters and joiners
under the three forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
22,200
25,100
27,800
28,900
31,800
32,900
36,600
38,700
39,800
43,400
39,500
27,800
18,700
1998-2010 ratio
scenario
1,180
1,431
1,618
1,665
1,548
1,850
2,089
2,127
1,908
1,358
511
136
96
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
16,000
15,600
16,000
16,800
17,600
70
70
170
390
890
30
2007-2010 ratio
scenario
1,180
1,431
1,618
1,665
1,548
1,850
2,089
2,127
1,908
1,358
511
136
96
2010 ratio
scenario
1,180
1,431
1,618
1,665
1,548
1,850
2,089
2,127
1,908
1,358
511
136
96
70
70
110
160
230
70
70
80
80
90
B3.
Wood Manufacturer and Finisher
B3.1 Historical employment trends
As part of the development of apprenticeship programmes, FÁS replaced the
individual apprenticeships of cabinet making and wood machining with the new
apprenticeship ‘wood manufacturing and finishing’ in November 2010.
Consequently, apprentice recruitment to the two former apprenticeships no longer
exists.
Forecasts of apprentice intake in the wood manufacturing and finishing
apprenticeship are produced for the period 2011-2015. It should be noted that the
combined historical annual number of apprentices in the cabinet making and wood
machining apprenticeships prior to November 2010 are used to establish the
appropriate apprentice intake/employment ratios in deriving forecasts of apprentice
intake for the trade of wood manufacturer and finisher.
Most employed wood manufacturers and finishers work in the furniture sector and,
consequently, from a national statistical classification perspective, they are classified
as belonging to the traditional industry sector. However, the demand for wood
manufacturers and finishers is intrinsically linked to the level of construction activity
as they are involved in making furniture for new homes, renovations and extensions
and for office and retail premises. Consequently, the future apprentice recruitment
for wood manufacturers and finishers is determined by the projected level of
building activity rather than the anticipated level of employment in traditional
industries.
Employment of wood manufacturers and finishers peaked at 5,500 in 2006 and
declined in the period thereafter, decreasing to 3,500 in 2010 (Figure B3.1).
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
31
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Figure B3.1
Total employment of wood manufacturers and finishers and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
6,000
20.0%
18.0%
5,500
16.0%
5,000
14.0%
12.0%
4,500
10.0%
4,000
8.0%
6.0%
3,500
4.0%
3,000
2.0%
2,500
0.0%
B3.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The share of non-Irish nationals represented in the workforce of this trade was 6% in
2005 and it increased to peak at 16% in 2009. Although, the share declined in 2010,
it remained relatively high, at 10%.
B3.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The annual apprentice intake level declined notably in 2007. The contraction
gathered momentum in 2008 and it continued in the subsequent years to 2010. The
intake level decreased from 168 in 2007 to 13 in 2010 — a reduction of over 90%
(Figure B3.2).
Figure B3.2
Annual intake of apprentice wood manufacturers and finishers; ratio of annual intake to total employment,
1998-2010
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1998
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
The considerable reduction in apprentice intake levels may have been influenced by
the significant recruitment of non-Irish workers in the trade from 2006 to 2008.
While the number of non-Irish nationals varied over this period, the number
remained at a relatively high level. As in the case of carpenters and joiners, the
influx of a significant number of non-Irish nationals seems to have had a negative
impact on apprentice intake levels.
B3.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
Between 2006 and 2010, the number of persons employed as wood manufacturers
and finishers decreased by over one-third to approximately 3,500. However, at the
end of the fourth quarter of 2010, less than 1,000 persons (i.e. crafts-persons and
redundant apprentices) were unemployed in this trade, suggesting that some of the
unemployed between 2006 and 2010 may have emigrated (Table B3.1).
Moreover, most of those unemployed at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010 were
relatively young (i.e. below 45 years of age). Given the pool of relatively young
unemployed persons, some employers may be reluctant to recruit new apprentices
into the trade over the projection period. It should be noted that not all of the
32
unemployed may be available to work in trade due to factors such as emigration,
illness etc.
Table B3.1
Wood manufacturers and finishers — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s);
numbers unemployed aged below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers—‘000s)
Number employed
All ages
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
<45 years
All ages
2006
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
5,500
3,500
-2,100
*
*
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
Note: The numbers unemployed in this occupation are not reported by the CSO as they are relatively small (i.e.
below 1,000). The numbers may be subject to sampling error as the data is based on a survey — the Quarterly
National Household Survey.
B3.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of wood manufacturers and finishers is expected to remain virtually
unchanged over the period 2011-2015 — at or just above 3,000 annually (Figure
B3.3).
Figure B3.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of wood manufacturers and finishers
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
B3.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B3.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B3.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 4.7% for the period
1998-2010 is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment of 3,300 for the trade and
this results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of 150.
33
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 1.4% for the period
2007-2010 is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment for the trade and this
results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of 50.
The 2010 ratio scenario
The ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 0.4% for the year 2010 is
applied to the 2015 forecast of employment and this results in an apprentice
recruitment requirement of 10.
Figure B3.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake for wood manufacturers and finishers under
the three forecast scenarios
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007-2010 ratio scenario
Table B3.2
Actual 1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of wood manufacturers and
finishers under the three forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3,800
3,700
4,800
4,800
4,700
4,200
4,200
4,500
5,500
5,200
5,300
3,900
3,500
1998-2010 ratio
scenario
281
329
340
324
257
232
218
195
221
168
80
24
13
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3,100
3,000
3,000
3,200
3,300
10
10
20
60
150
34
2007-2010 ratio
scenario
281
329
340
324
257
232
218
195
221
168
80
24
13
2010 ratio
scenario
281
329
340
324
257
232
218
195
221
168
80
24
13
10
10
20
30
50
10
10
10
10
10
B4.
Brick and Stone-Layer
B4.1 Historical employment trends
Employment of brick and stone-layers peaked at 16,900 in 2006 and it declined
significantly in the subsequent years, decreasing to 4,500 in 2010 (Figure B4.1). The
2010 employment level represents a 73% reduction on the peak level. This is a
reversal in the overall trend of growth in employment recorded between 1998 and
2006. There were decreases in employment in both the years 2001 and 2002, but
these were relatively small in magnitude.
The dramatic decline in employment in this trade has mainly been due to the
exceptionally weak position of the new house building sector and the transition from
the use of traditional building methods — brick and block build masonry — to
modern methods of construction — such as pre-cast concrete panels; cladding
systems; timber frame panels; steel frame systems; glazing etc. Timber frame
systems have been popular in the construction of houses, while glazing, steel
framing and pre-cast concrete panels have predominantly been used in the
construction of relatively tall buildings in the commercial sector.
Figure B4.1
Total employment of brick and stone-layers and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
18,000
30.0%
16,000
25.0%
14,000
20.0%
12,000
15.0%
10,000
10.0%
8,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0.0%
2000
4,000
1999
5.0%
1998
6,000
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B4.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The share of non-Irish workers in this trade was just over 5% in 2004 and it increased
rapidly until 2007, when it peaked at 25%. It declined in the years to 2010, but it has
remained relatively high and measured 11% in 2010 (Figure B4.1).
B4.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
A notable feature of this trade is that the contraction in the recruitment of
apprentices during the period 2005-2007 coincided with a significant increase in the
35
share of non-Irish nationals working in the trade. Thus, it may be the case that some
employers may have substituted non-Irish workers for apprentices over that period.
The forecasting exercise attempts to take this factor into account by assuming that
5% of the workforce of this trade will be composed of non-Irish workers in 2015 (i.e.
the forecast of apprentice intake in that year is based solely on the 2015 forecast
employment figure for Irish-nationals).
Figure B4.2
Annual intake of apprentice brick and stone-layers; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
700
6.0%
600
500
4.0%
400
300
2.0%
200
100
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B4.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
The number of brick and stone-layers in employment decreased to 4,500 in 2010
from 16,900 in 2006, representing a dramatic reduction in the numbers employed. It
appears that a considerable number of unemployed persons in the trade may have
emigrated during that period, as the total number unemployed at the end of the
fourth quarter of 2010 was 6,100 (Table B4.1).
Importantly, over four-fifths of those unemployed were below 45 years of age.
Given the existence of a relatively large pool of young unemployed crafts-workers
and redundant apprentices, it is likely that some employers may recruit a smaller
number of new apprentices in the trade over the projection period.
Table B4.1
Brick and stone-layers — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers
unemployed aged below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers —‘000s)
Number employed
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
All ages
<45 years
All ages
2006
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
16,900
4,500
-12,300
5,000
6,100
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
36
B4.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of brick and stone-layers is expected to recover to just above the 2010
employment level by 2015. It is expected to increase modestly from the year 2013,
reaching just under 5,000 by 2015 (Figure B4.3). This trend reflects DKM’s
expectation of a modest recovery in residential development, both in the new and
repair and maintenance segments of that sector
Figure B4.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of brick and stone-layers
17,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
3,000
B4.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B4.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B4.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment in the period 1998-2010
is 3%. When this ratio is applied to the 2015 adjusted forecast of employment of
4,500 (i.e. the 95% Irish-national employment stock), this results in an apprentice
recruitment requirement of 130.
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The ratio of apprentice intake to total employment in the period 2007-2010 is 0.7%.
When this ratio is applied to the 2015 adjusted forecast of employment of 4,500, the
apprentice recruitment requirement is 30. This projected level of apprentice intake
is equivalent to the combined level of annual apprentice intake that prevailed in the
years 2009 and 2010.
37
The 2010 ratio scenario
The ratio of apprentice intake to total employment in 2010 is 0.2%. This ratio is
extremely low, reflecting the severity of the phenomenal collapse in apprentice
recruitment. When this ratio is applied to the adjusted 2015 forecast of
employment for the trade, the apprentice recruitment requirement is 10. This
projected level is equivalent to the 2010 level of apprentice intake.
Figure B4.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake for brick and stone-layers under the three
forecast scenarios
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B4.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment & apprentice intake of brick and stone-layers under
the three forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
8,000
9,400
11,300
10,800
10,000
11,300
13,900
16,700
16,900
15,800
11,100
6,100
4,500
1998-2010 ratio
scenario
339
368
441
416
441
549
680
599
474
247
56
20
10
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4,500
5,200
5,400
5,800
6,200
20
20
30
60
130
38
2007-2010
ratio scenario
339
368
441
416
441
549
680
599
474
247
56
20
10
2010 ratio
scenario
339
368
441
416
441
549
680
599
474
247
56
20
10
20
20
20
20
30
20
20
10
10
10
B5.
Plumber
B5.1 Historical employment trends
Employment of plumbers increased significantly between 1998 and 2007,
particularly during the years of the construction boom. It increased from 8,700 in
1998 to reach a peak level of 17,000 in 2007 (Figure B5.1). However, this upward
trend has reversed since 2007; employment contracted to 10,700 in 2010, reflecting
the severity of the contraction in construction activity.
Figure B5.1
Total employment of plumbers and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010 (Annual average – ‘000s; %)
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.0%
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B5.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
There was a steady increase in the share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce of
plumbers between 2004 and 2007 (Figure B5.1). The share in 2010 was just below
the share of 7% in 2007, but it is expected to decline over the next few years as
employment opportunities remain limited.
Given the relatively low representation of non-Irish nationals in workforce of this
trade and the anticipated contraction in the share in the short-term, the forecast of
employment in 2015 has not been adjusted downwards to take this factor into
account.
B5.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
There was over a two and half fold increase in the apprentice recruitment level over
the period 1998-2006, increasing from 589 to 1,501 (the peak level). In the
subsequent years to 2010, there was a significant contraction in the recruitment
level, reflecting the exceptional rate of deterioration in activity across all segments
of the construction sector. It decreased by just over 90% in that period and this
compares with a 37% decrease in the employment level. The much stronger pace of
contraction in the apprentice recruitment level is reflected in the declining
39
apprentice intake to total employment ratio over the period. The ratio measured
6.1% in 2007 and it decreased to 0.8% in 2010 (Figure B5.2).
Figure B5.2
Annual intake of apprentice plumbers; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
12.0%
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.0%
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B5.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
The number of plumbers in employment was approximately 10,700 in 2010; this
level is almost 5,000 or 30% below the 2006 level. It may be the case that a
considerable number of those who became unemployed during that four year period
emigrated — as the total number unemployed in the fourth quarter of 2010 was
approximately 3,600 (Table B5.1).
Moreover, approximately four fifths (i.e. almost 3,000) of the total number
unemployed in that quarter were aged under 45 years. As there is a significant
number of relatively young unemployed crafts-workers and apprentices in this trade,
some employers may recruit a relatively smaller number of new apprentices over the
projection period. However, it should be noted that not all of those unemployed
may be available to work in trade over the forecast period due to factors such as
emigration, illness, etc.
Table B5.1
Plumbers — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers unemployed aged
below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers — ‘000s)
Number employed
All ages
2006
15,500
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
<45 years
All ages
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
10,700
-4,800
2,900
3,600
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
B5.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of plumbers is expected to contract further in both the years 2011 and
2012. It is expected to revert to a positive trend in 2013 (measuring 7,600);
40
however, it is not expected to recover to the level which prevailed in 2010 by the
end of the projection period (Figure B5.3).
Figure B5.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of plumbers
17,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
5,000
B5.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B5.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B5.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 6.6% for the period
1998-2010 is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment of 8,200 for the trade and
this results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of 540.
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 2.7% for the period
2007-2010 is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment for the trade and this
results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of 220. This projected level is
almost the same as the combined level of apprentice intake in 2009 and 2010 and
only represents 15% of the 2005 peak level of 1,501.
The 2010 ratio scenario
The apprentice intake to total employment ratio in 2010 of 0.8% is applied to the
2015 forecast of employment for the trade and this results in an apprentice
recruitment requirement of 70. This projected level is broadly similar to the
apprentice intake level that was experienced in the first eight months of 2011 and
only represents 5% of the 2006 peak level of intake.
41
Figure B5.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake for plumbers under the three
forecast scenarios
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B5.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of plumbers under the three
forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
8,700
9,000
9,800
10,300
10,200
12,000
12,400
14,400
15,500
17,000
15,800
12,600
10,700
1998-2010 ratio
scenario
589
690
826
857
731
938
1,250
1,252
1,501
1,040
451
126
91
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7,600
7,400
7,600
7,900
8,200
120
120
190
320
540
42
2007-2010 ratio
scenario
589
690
826
857
731
938
1,250
1,252
1,501
1,040
451
126
91
2010 ratio
scenario
589
690
826
857
731
938
1,250
1,252
1,501
1,040
451
126
91
120
120
140
180
220
120
120
100
80
70
B6.
Plasterer
B6.1 Historical employment trends
Employment of plasterers increased significantly during the boom years of
construction activity. The numbers employed increased from 5,500 in 1998 to peak
at 14,700 in 2006, reflecting the unprecedented level of new house building put in
place. Since reaching its peak level, employment has plummeted, reverting to just
below the 1998 level of 5,500 in 2010. The number of jobs losses experienced in the
last four years exceeds the number of job gains for the period 1998-2006 (Figure
B6.1). The dramatic decline in employment in recent years is due to severe
contraction in construction activity, particularly, in new residential construction
activity.
Figure B6.1
Total employment of plasterers and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010 (Annual average – ‘000s; %)
25.0%
14,000
20.0%
12,000
15.0%
10,000
10.0%
8,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0.0%
2000
4,000
1999
5.0%
1998
6,000
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B6.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce of plasterers increased from 3% in
2004 to 19% in 2008. Although, the numbers employed in the trade are relatively
low in recent years, the share of non-Irish nationals has remained relatively high and
it measured 18% in 2010 (Figure B6.1).
It is assumed that some non-Irish nationals (i.e. 5%) will continue to work as
plasterers in Ireland over the forecast period and this factor is taken into account in
the forecasting exercise.
B6.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
With the exception of the year 2002, the intake level of apprentice plasterers
increased annually in the period 1998-2004, increasing from 168 to 311. After
having peaked in 2004, the level declined dramatically in the period thereafter,
43
decreasing to only 12 in 2010. The 2010 level represents a 96% reduction on the
2004 peak level (Figure B6.2).
The rapid deterioration in annual intake levels between 2007 and 2010 is more
pronounced than the contraction in employment for the trade.
Figure B6.2
Annual intake of apprentice plasterers; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
400
4.0%
3.5%
300
3.0%
2.5%
200
2.0%
1.5%
100
1.0%
0.5%
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B6.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
Between 2006 and 2010, employment of plasterers (including both crafts-workers
and apprentices) contracted by 10,100 to 4,600 in 2010. The total number
unemployed in the trade was approximately 5,600 in the fourth quarter of 2010
(Table B6.1). Based on the figures, it appears that a considerable number of those
unemployed during that four year period may have emigrated.
Moreover, over four fifths of those unemployed in the fourth quarter of 2010 were
below 45 years of age. As there is a significant number of relatively young
unemployed crafts-workers and apprentices in this trade, some employers may
recruit a relatively smaller number of new apprentices over the projection period.
However, it should be noted that not all of those unemployed may be available to
work in trade over the forecast period due to factors such as emigration, illness, etc.
Table B6.1
Plasterers — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers unemployed aged
below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers — ‘000s)
Number employed
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
All ages
2006
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
14,700
4,600
-10,100
4,500
5,600
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
44
<45 years
All ages
B6.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of plasterers is expected to continue declining in the first two years of
the forecast period and to return to a positive trend in 2013. Employment is
expected to reach 5,100 by 2015 (Figure B6.3).
Figure B6.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of plasterers
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
3,000
B6.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B6.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B6.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment is 1.8% for the period
1998-2010. This ratio is applied to the 2015 forecast of employment adjusted for an
assumed 5% share of non-nationals in the workforce of this trade, and this results in
an apprentice recruitment requirement of 90. This projected level is broadly
equivalent to the average level of apprentice intake which prevailed in the years
2007 and 2008.
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment is 0.5% for the period
2007-2010. This ratio is applied to the 2015 adjusted forecast of employment, and it
results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of 20. This projected level of
apprentice intake is almost equivalent to the combined level of annual intake in the
years 2009 and 2010.
45
The 2010 ratio scenario
The ratio of apprentice intake to total employment is 0.3% in 2010. This ratio is
applied to the 2015 adjusted forecast of employment (i.e. the 95% Irish national
employment stock figure), and it results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of
10, which is broadly equivalent to the level of apprentice recruitment experienced in
2010.
Figure B6.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of plasterers under the three
forecast scenarios
400
300
200
100
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2010
2011F
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B6.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of plasterers under the three
forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5,500
6,600
7,800
9,500
9,900
9,300
11,600
12,900
14,700
14,100
12,100
5,400
4,600
1998-2010 ratio
scenario
163
175
188
201
186
268
311
278
220
143
57
14
12
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4,400
4,200
4,400
4,700
5,100
10
10
10
40
90
46
2007-2010
ratio scenario
163
175
188
201
186
268
311
278
220
143
57
14
12
2010 ratio
scenario
163
175
188
201
186
268
311
278
220
143
57
14
12
10
10
10
20
20
10
10
10
10
10
B7.
Painter and Decorator
B7.1 Historical employment trends
Employment of painters and decorators remained relatively stable during the period
2000-2004 (ranging from 9,800 to 10,400) and it increased to peak at 13,000 in 2007.
Employment has contracted since 2007, returning to just above the level which
prevailed in 1998 by the end of 2010 (Figure B7.1).
B7.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The share of non-Irish nationals represented in the workforce of this trade declined
from 18% in 2008 to 13% in 2010 (Figure B7.1).
Figure B7.1
Total employment of painters and decorators and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
14,000
25.0%
13,000
20.0%
12,000
11,000
15.0%
10,000
10.0%
9,000
8,000
5.0%
7,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
6,000
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B7.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The recruitment of apprentices increased steadily in both 1998 and 1999. There was
no significant variation recorded in the apprentice intake levels during the seven
subsequent years. However, a significant contraction of 45% occurred in 2007 and
the intake levels have been declining annually since, decreasing to 8 in 2010 (Figure
B7.2).
The contraction in apprentice intake has coincided with a significant increase in the
employment of non-Irish nationals. Consequently, it is assumed that 5% of the
workforce of the trade will be non-Irish workers in 2015 and the forecast of
apprentice intake in that year is based only on the Irish national workforce.
47
Figure B7.2
Annual intake of apprentice painters &decorators; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
0.0%
2006
0
2005
0.5%
2004
50
2003
1.0%
2002
100
2001
1.5%
2000
150
1999
2.0%
1998
200
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B7.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
The number of painters and decorators in employment was 7,100 in 2010 compared
to 11,900 in 2006 — representing a decline of 4,800 (Table B7.1). It may be the case
that a considerable number of those who became unemployed during that period
emigrated, as the total number unemployed at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010
was 5,800.
Moreover, almost three quarters of those unemployed in the fourth quarter of 2010
were below 45 years of age. As there are a significant number of relatively young
unemployed persons (i.e. crafts-workers and apprentices), employers may recruit a
relatively smaller number of new apprentices in the trade over the forecast period.
However, it should be noted that all of the unemployed will be available to work due
to factors such as emigration, illness etc.
Table B7.1
Painter and decorators — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers
unemployed aged below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers — ‘000s)
Number employed
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
All ages
<45 years
All ages
2006
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
11,900
7,100
-4,800
4,300
5,800
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
B7.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of painters and decorators is expected to contract to 5,000 by the end
of 2011 and to broadly remain at that level annually in the period 2012-2015 (Figure
B7.3).
48
Figure B7.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of painters & decorators
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
3,000
B7.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B7.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B7.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 1.2% for the period
1998-2010 is applied to the adjusted employment forecast (i.e. the Irish-national
employment figure) of approximately 5,100 in 2015 and this results in an apprentice
recruitment requirement of 60.
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 0.4% for the period
2007-2010 is applied to the adjusted employment forecast of approximately 5,100 in
2015 and this gives an apprentice recruitment requirement of 20.
The 2010 ratio scenario
The apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 0.1% in 2010 is applied to the
adjusted 2015 forecast of employment and this results in an apprentice recruitment
requirement of 10.
49
Figure B7.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of painters & decorators under the three
forecast scenarios
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B7.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of painters and decorators
under the three forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
6,900
8,500
10,000
10,100
10,400
10,000
9,800
12,500
11,900
13,000
11,000
8,300
7,100
1998-2010 ratio
scenario
120
136
159
148
151
140
157
148
161
113
62
19
8
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5,000
4,800
4,900
5,100
5,300
20
20
30
40
60
50
2007-2010
ratio scenario
120
136
159
148
151
140
157
148
161
113
62
19
8
2010
ratio scenario
120
136
159
148
151
140
157
148
161
113
62
19
8
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
B8.
Construction Plant Fitter
B8.1 Historical employment trends
Within the official CSO occupational classification, there is no occupation which
corresponds to ‘construction plant fitter’. However, there are approximately 1,800
fitters employed in the construction industry and, for the purpose of this forecasting
exercise it is assumed that these fitters are working on construction plant related
projects.
Employment of construction plant fitters remained relatively stable between 1998
and 2002, with over 2,000 persons employed in this occupation (Figure B8.1).
Employment declined to below 2,000 in 2003 and increased strongly to peak at
4,200 in 2005, concomitant with the high levels of activity recorded in the civil
engineering segment of the construction industry. Since 2007, employment has
contracted ― reverting to below the level which prevailed in 1998.
B8.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce of this occupation increased
significantly since the enlargement of the European labour market in 2004 ―
increasing from just under 4% in 2004 to peak at 30% in 2007. However, the share
decreased to 17% in 2010 (Figure B8.1).
Figure B8.1
Total employment of construction plant fitters and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.0%
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
The number of Irish construction plant fitters in employment declined between 2004
and 2007, while at the same time, the share of non-Irish nationals increased, but the
apprentice intake figures remained relatively unchanged during this period
51
suggesting that employers may not have substituted non-Irish workers for
apprentices in this trade.
B8.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The recruitment of apprentices in this trade remained in the range of 80 to 114
during the period 1998-2007 (Figure B8.2). The level has declined dramatically since
2007 while, at the same time, the proportion of non-Irish nationals has remained
relatively high. Thus, the more recent period is consistent with the view that some
substitution of non-Irish workers for apprentices has been occurring. The analysis
attempts to take this factor into account by assuming that 5% of forecast
employment for this occupation will be non-Irish in 2015.
Figure B8.2
Annual intake of construction plant fitters; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
0
0.0%
1999
annual intake
2010
1.0%
2009
20
2008
2.0%
2007
40
2006
3.0%
2005
60
2004
4.0%
2003
80
2002
5.0%
2001
100
2000
6.0%
1998
120
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B8.4 Supply of unemployed crafts-persons and redundant apprentices
Between 2006 and 2010, employment of construction plant fitters contracted by
50%, to 1,800 (Table B8.1). In the fourth quarter of 2010, a relatively small number
of persons were unemployed in the trade (i.e. less than 1,000), and most of those
were below 45 years of age.
Table B8.1
Construction plant fitters — numbers employed in 2006 and 2010 (annual averages — ‘000s); numbers
unemployed aged below 45 years and all persons, Q4 2010 (numbers — ‘000s)
Number employed
Change in employment
Number unemployed
All ages
All ages
All ages
2006
2010
2006-2010
Q4 2010
Q4 2010
3,700
1,800
-1,900
*
*
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on based on CSO data from the QNHS
52
<45 years
All ages
B8.5 Forecast of employment
Employment of construction plant fitters is expected to increase to 1,700 by 2015,
which is broadly similar to the level which prevailed in 2010 (Figure 8.3).
Figure B8.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of construction plant fitters
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1,000
B8.6 Forecast of apprentice intake
The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under the three different forecast
scenarios — the 1998-2010 ratio scenario; the 2007-2010 ratio scenario; and the
2010 ratio scenario — is presented below. The forecasts are illustrated graphically in
Figure B8.4 and they are also shown together with the forecasts of employment in
2015 in Table B8.2. The forecast of apprentice intake in 2015 under each respective
scenario is based on a different apprentice intake to total employment ratio —
namely, the average ratio for the period 1998-2010; the average ratio for the period
2007-2010; and the ratio in 2010.
The 1998-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 3.1% for the period
1998-2010 is applied to the 2015 adjusted forecast of employment of 1,600 (i.e. the
95% Irish-national figure) for the trade. This results in an apprentice recruitment
requirement of 50.
The 2007-2010 ratio scenario
The average apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 1.9% for the period
2007-2010 is applied to the 2015 adjusted forecast of employment of 1,600 and this
gives an apprentice recruitment requirement of 30.
The 2010 ratio scenario
The apprentice intake to total employment ratio of 1.7% in 2010 is applied to the
adjusted 2015 forecast of employment and this results in an apprentice recruitment
requirement of 30.
53
Figure B8.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of construction plant fitters under the three
forecast scenarios
120
100
80
60
40
20
1998-2010 ratio scenario
2007-2010 ratio scenario
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
2010 ratio scenario
Table B8.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment & apprentice intake of construction plant fitters
under the three forecast scenarios
Employment
Number of apprentices
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2,200
2,400
2,700
2,300
2,200
1,700
3,700
4,200
3,700
3,800
2,700
2,000
1,800
1998-2010
ratio scenario
92
87
91
114
83
84
102
104
89
93
64
26
30
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,600
1,700
30
30
30
40
50
54
2007-2010
ratio scenario
92
87
91
114
83
84
102
104
89
93
64
26
30
2010
ratio scenario
92
87
91
114
83
84
102
104
89
93
64
26
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
B9.
Motor Mechanic
B9.1 Historical employment trends
It is very difficult to forecast the apprentice recruitment of motor mechanics since it
is influenced by a range of factors. In general, the fact that cars are becoming much
more reliable and, consequently, service intervals less frequent, should indicate that
the number of motor mechanics required for a given volume of cars is on a
downward trend.
However, there was a significant increase in the purchase of cars during the period
1998-2008 and this trend seems to have off-set any negative impact which longer
service intervals might have on employment. There was an overall positive
employment trend for motor mechanics during the period 1998-2007 (Table B9.1).
The number employed increased from 11,300 in 1998 to reach a peak of 16,600 in
2007. Since 2007, however, the number employed has contracted by 3,000 to
13,000 in 2010.
Figure B9.1
Total employment of motor mechanics and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010 (Annual average – ‘000s; %)
17,000
25.0%
15,000
20.0%
13,000
11,000
15.0%
9,000
10.0%
7,000
5,000
5.0%
3,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
1,000
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B9.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
A feature of the employment trend for motor mechanics is the significant increase in
the recruitment of non-Irish motor mechanics since the enlargement of the
European labour market in 2004 (Figure B9.1). The proportion of non-Irish workers
increased from 4% in that year to reach a peak of 21% in 2009 and it declined very
modestly to 20% in 2010.
55
The surge in the recruitment of non-Irish mechanics, which occurred over the period
2006-2010, initially gave rise to a modest increase in total employment before
coinciding with a sharp decline in total employment in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Indeed,
the number of Irish motor mechanics declined by 27% during the period 2006-2010
― equivalent to approximately 4,000 jobs.
B9.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The annual level of apprentice intake in this trade has been in the range of 400 to
551 in the period 1998-2008. The intake levels contracted sharply from the year
2007 to 2009 — by 289 from 448 to 159. However, it increased to 191 in 2010.
The sharp decline in the number of Irish motor mechanics between 2006 and 2010
may have, in the eyes of some employers, reduced the need to replenish the
employment stock through the recruitment of apprentices. However, the modest
decline in the proportion of non-Irish nationals working in the trade in 2010 has
coincided with an increase in apprentice intake, indicating a reversal of the trend
observed in the previous year.
Nevertheless, in forecasting the recruitment of apprentices in 2015, it is assumed
that 10% of the employment stock of motor mechanics in 2015 will be composed of
non-Irish nationals.
Figure B9.2
Annual intake into the motor mechanics apprenticeship, ratio of annual intake to total employment stock,
1998-2010
600
4.5%
4.0%
500
3.5%
400
3.0%
2.5%
300
2.0%
200
1.5%
1.0%
100
0.5%
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B9.4 Forecast of employment
Employment of motor mechanics is expected to increase by approximately 1,900
from 13,300 in 2011 to 15,200 in 2015 (Table B9.3).
56
Figure B9.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of motor mechanics
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
10,000
B9.5 Forecast of apprentice intake
The 2015 forecast level of apprentice intake is graphically presented in Figure B9.4
and is shown together with the forecast of employment in that year in Table B9.1
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 2.9% for the period
1998-2010 is applied only to the 2015 Irish-national employment stock of 13,700 to
derive the forecast of apprentice intake for motor mechanics in that year. This
calculation results in an apprentice recruitment requirement of 400 in 2015.
Figure B9.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of motor mechanics
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics; forecasts derived by FÁS, SLMRU
This projected figure might appear high in view of the fact that the intake level was
only 159 in 2009. However, the year 2009 was exceptional because economic
activity was at a very low ebb and indeed many garages went out of business. With
the exception of that year, the annual intake level since 1998 has always been above
57
400 and in some years, significantly above that figure. If the expectation that the
economy begins to grow strongly from the year 2013, there is no reason why the
annual recruitment of apprentices will not gradually revert to 90% of its historical
average (allowing for the impact of an estimated 10% of non-Irish nationals on
apprentice recruitment), which is equivalent to a figure of 408, which is very similar
to the forecast figure.
Table B9.1
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of motor mechanics
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Employment
11,300
12,100
13,700
13,500
13,200
15,000
14,900
15,800
16,200
16,600
15,600
14,400
13,000
Number of apprentices
433
472
551
493
458
420
404
454
442
448
414
159
191
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13,300
13,800
14,300
14,700
15,200
230
230
270
330
400
58
B10. Vehicle Body Repairer
B10.1 Historical employment trends
Employment of vehicle body repairers increased steadily over the period 1998-2001,
increasing from 1,600 to 2,800 (Figure B10.1). In the subsequent years to 2008, the
level remained in the range of 2,200 to 2,500. However, since 2007, employment
initially declined to 2009, before recovering to 2,000 in 2010.
Figure B10.1
Total employment of vehicle body repairers and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010
(Annual average – ‘000s; %)
2010
2009
0.0%
2008
1,000
2007
5.0%
2006
1,500
2005
10.0%
2004
2,000
2003
15.0%
2002
2,500
2001
20.0%
2000
3,000
1999
25.0%
1998
3,500
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B10.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The proportion of non-Irish nationals working in the trade increased from 4% in 2005
to 15% in 2007 and further increased to 18% in 2009. However, the proportion
declined quite sharply in 2010, to 11% (Figure B10.1).
B10.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The recruitment of apprentices in the trade increased from 90 in 1998 to reach a
peak level of 140 in 2000, before declining to 118 in the following year. The level
remained relatively stable during the period 2002-2005. However, there was a
significant reduction in the level between 2005 and 2007. This decline may have
been influenced by the recruitment of non-Irish vehicle body repairers in the
workforce of this trade. Although the share of non-Irish nationals decreased in 2010,
it is too early to say if this downward trend will continue into the future. However,
for the purpose of forecasting apprentice intake levels, it is assumed that at least 5%
of those employed in this occupation in 2015 will be non-Irish nationals.
59
Figure B10.3
Annual intake of apprentice vehicle body repairers; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
160
7.0%
140
6.0%
120
5.0%
100
4.0%
80
3.0%
60
2.0%
40
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0.0%
2000
0
1999
1.0%
1998
20
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B10.4 Forecast of employment
Employment of vehicle body repairers is expected to remain at approximately 2,000
annually or just a few hundred above this figure over the period 2011-2015.
Figure B10.2
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of vehicle body repairers
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
B10.5 Forecast of apprentice intake
The ratio of apprentice intake to total employment was quite volatile over the period
1998-2010. In the last two years of this period, the ratio declined dramatically —
from 5% to 1.4%. The average ratio of 4.3% for this period is applied to the adjusted
forecast of employment for 2015 and this gives an anticipated apprentice
recruitment requirement of 100.
60
Figure B10.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of vehicle body repairers
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics; forecasts derived by FÁS, SLMRU
Table B10.1
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of vehicle body repairers
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Employment
1,600
2,000
2,200
2,800
2,200
2,400
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,600
2,200
1,800
2,000
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2,100
2,200
2,200
2,300
2,400
61
Of which, number of
apprentices
90
116
140
118
93
100
102
111
95
69
110
50
28
40
40
50
70
100
B11. Mechanical Automation and Maintenance Fitter
B11.1 Historical employment trends
There is a distinct apprenticeship for those seeking to become construction plant
crafts-workers and, consequently, in general, those working as fitters in the
construction industry have not graduated from the mechanical automation and
maintenance fitter (MAMF) apprenticeship. Therefore, the numbers employed in
construction have been omitted from this analysis.
Traditionally, the maintenance fitter trade provided some of the best employment
opportunities for apprentices. From 1998 to 2001, there were over 20,000 persons
employed in this trade. However, employment contracted in the subsequent years
to 2005, declining to approximately 17,000. It recovered to just over 20,000 in 2007
and the level has been in decline since that year, decreasing to approximately 15,200
in 2010 (Figure B11.1).
Figure B11.1
Total employment of metal working production and maintenance fitters and share of non-Irish nationals,
1998-2010 (Annual average – ‘000s; %)
25000
14.0%
12.0%
20000
10.0%
15000
8.0%
10000
6.0%
4.0%
5000
2.0%
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B11.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
The proportion of non-Irish nationals represented in the workforce of this trade
increased significantly since the enlargement of the European labour market in 2004,
increasing from almost 4% in 2004 to peak at almost 13% in 2008. However, the
share declined to 7% in 2010, but it is too early to say if this is the beginning of a
reversal in the trend.
62
B11.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The annual intake level of apprentices in this trade peaked at 403 in 2000. In the
period thereafter to the year 2005, the levels contracted to 166. There was some
recovery in the level in 2006 and 2007, but it declined dramatically in the following
three years, decreasing to 65 in 2010.
There does not appear to be a consistent relationship between the recruitment of
new apprentices and the inflow of non-Irish workers into this trade. It is assumed
that a negligible number of non-Irish workers will be represented in the workforce of
fitters in 2015.
Figure B11.2
Annual intake of apprentice mechanical automation and maintenance fitters; ratio of annual intake to total
employment, 1998-2010
450
2.5%
400
2.0%
350
300
1.5%
250
200
1.0%
150
100
0.5%
50
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B11.4 Forecast of employment
Employment of fitters is expected to remain broadly similar to the 2010 level each
year over the projection period (Figure B11.3).
63
Figure B11.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of fitters
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
B11.5 Forecast of apprentice intake
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment for this trade is 1.1%
over the period 1998-2010 inclusive. Applying this ratio to the 2015 forecast of
employment of approximately 15,800 gives an apprentice recruitment requirement
of 180 (Figure B11.4 and Table B11.1). This figure is broadly similar to the average
level of apprentice intake recorded in the years 2005 and 2006.
There are a considerable number of fitters employed in both the high-technology
and distribution sectors. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
prediction of an increase in employment in both of these sectors is the reason
underpinning the increase in projected apprentice recruitment in this trade.
Figure B11.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of fitters
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics; forecasts derived by FÁS, SLMRU
64
Table B11.1
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of fitters
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Employment
22,000
22,800
20,400
21,100
18,900
18,500
17,200
17,000
18,100
20,400
18,900
17,000
15,200
Number of apprentices
350
378
403
323
229
211
181
166
171
203
135
70
65
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
15,100
15,100
15,400
15,600
15,800
100
100
120
150
180
65
B12. Toolmaker
B12.1 Historical employment trends
There was between 1,000 and 1,500 persons employed in the trade of toolmaking
annually during the period 2000-2010.
B12.2 Historical share of non-Irish nationals in the workforce
There are a negligible number of non-Irish nationals working as toolmakers. The
trend in the share of non-Irish workers is very volatile over the period 1998-2010.
This may be due to sampling error as the data is based on survey data. The share
increased from almost 3% in 2006 to 14% in 2009 and it has remained at that
proportion in 2010.
Figure B12.1
Total employment of toolmakers and share of non-Irish nationals, 1998-2010 (Annual average – ‘000s; %)
2,000
14.0%
1,800
1,600
12.0%
1,400
10.0%
1,200
8.0%
1,000
800
6.0%
600
4.0%
400
2.0%
200
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0%
1998
0
number employed
share of non-Irish nationals in total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on CSO data from the QNHS
B12.3 Historical apprentice intake trends
The toolmaking apprenticeship is one of the few apprenticeships that experienced
an increase in recruitment in the first eight months of 2011. The level of recruitment
in this trade had been in serious decline since the year 2000 ― decreasing from 124
in 2000 to 31 in 2010 (Figure B12.1). However, the level at the end of the first eight
months of 2011 is 24, which suggests that the annual recruitment level in 2011 may
exceed last year’s figure.
The significant increase in apprentice intake recruitment levels last year reflects an
upsurge in export activity in the multinational sector. Many companies in this sector
are important clients of the toolmaking industry. The recruitment of non-Irish
nationals in this trade was particularly active in both 2009 and 2010 and further
66
supports the view that the surge in export activity from the multinational sector
triggered a significant in business for toolmaking companies. It is assumed that
approximately 5% of the projected employment stock in 2015 will be composed of
non-Irish nationals.
Figure B12.2
Annual intake of apprentice toolmakers; ratio of annual intake to total employment, 1998-2010
160
10.0%
140
9.0%
8.0%
120
7.0%
100
6.0%
80
5.0%
60
4.0%
3.0%
40
2.0%
annual intake
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.0%
1999
1.0%
0
1998
20
ratio of new apprentice registrants to total emp. stock
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics
B12.4 Forecast of employment
Employment of toolmakers is expected to remain broadly similar to the 2010 level
each year over the forecast period.
Figure B12.3
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment of toolmakers
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
B12.4 Forecast of apprentice intake
The average ratio of apprentice intake to total employment of 3.9% for the period
1998-2010 is applied to the adjusted 2015 forecast of employment (i.e. the Irishnational employment stock). This calculation gives an apprentice recruitment
67
requirement of 60 in 2015 (Figure B12.3 and Table B12.1). This forecast represents
an increase in apprentice intake levels since 2001 and it reflects the assumption
underlying the ESRI medium-term forecasts that the economy will experience will
recover by 2015, driven partly by the strong export performance of the multinational
sector.
Figure B12.4
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) apprentice intake of toolmakers
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2015F
2014F
2013F
2012F
2011F
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Source: Analysis by FÁS (SLMRU) based on FÁS Apprenticeship Statistics; forecasts derived by FÁS, SLMRU
Table B12.1
Actual (1998-2010) and forecast (2011-2015) employment and apprentice intake of toolmakers
Actual
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Employment
1,800
1,900
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,100
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,100
1,400
1,500
1,400
Number of apprentices
150
110
124
105
43
46
39
34
33
16
21
18
31
Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,400
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,600
40
40
50
50
60
68