Is There An Energy Shortage for New England?
NH has enough excess to export energy to MA.
1. “The ‘energy crisis’ is overblown”, according to the President of the NE Power
Generators, in a March 4, 2015 article by the Power Plant Owners.
“This winter, not only is there still the same amount of pipeline (as there was in
‘13/’14), but also a major nuclear plant and a big coal plant have been retired….and
electricity prices (wholesale) dropped 60% from Jan. 2014 to January 2015”.
2. Peter Brandien, vice president of system operations at ISO New England, said, "From
a system operations standpoint, the season (winter 2015) was fairly uneventful overall,
due mainly to preparations made well before the winter season began.” Better grid
management along with the Winter Reliability Program.
3. The “energy crisis” actually involved a mismanagement of the electric grid for a
few hours of a few days in 2013/14. And there is never a shortage of heating fuel.
4. ISO-NE has said that they – “didn’t want to give the wrong message” by using
available LNG at one point. And they chose not to use some available fuel due to
pricing competition at another. Some pipes were also only filled to 45% of capacity.
5. In any case, to whatever extent there was an actual energy shortage, it has already
been addressed:
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TGP/CT and AIM (Algonquin-Spectra) pipeline projects are approved and scheduled to
be in service by 2016 ~ 400,000 dth/day
National Grid has a plan approved by the Mass DPU to liquefy large amounts of
pipeline gas instead of using the imported LNG
Also, Distrigas has signed a 10 year contract for ample LNG to cover any peaks in
demand through 2024, which is cost-effective because the infrastructure already exists
and the supply can be efficiently deployed locally to customers.
Savings of 2GW from LED lights and 3GW of renewables that will be in place in
NY/New England by 2017 will reduce any possible summer shortage.
6. Studies done recently (ICF, Sussex, Synapse, Black & Veatch) ignored 80 percent
of this new energy supply. Thereby misrepresenting the actual demand numbers.
7. Plus the newly announced FERC reforms can play a role in moderating gas supply
concerns in winter.
8. The NH OEP 10-Year State Energy Strategy Appendix A, Figure #3 indicates that up to
2032: “Total power generation (for NH) is expected to remain predominantly flat
over the forecast period, as increasing in-state demand is offset by lower net
exports, which is attributed to increasing energy efficiency in neighboring states”.
9. Appendix C.3 in the “Strategy” illustrates outstanding reductions in electricity and
heating demand throughout all sectors for the next 10 yrs. for NH.
10. The new EERS (Energy Efficiency Renewable Standard) NH’s PUC is putting forward
would reduce both electricity & heating consumption in NH by 20% within 10 yrs.
11. ISO-NE’s website says that only a 1% rise in demand per yr. is anticipated.
ISO-NE newswire: April 2015 had the lowest monthly energy usage in 16 yrs.
Us Energy Information Agency chart: