GIS for International Applications
Assignment 7: Detailed Project Proposal
Ana Garcia
April 15, 2013
Project Topic: Civilian Casualties in the Syrian Civil War
(1) Briefly describe your project goals and the spatial questions it will address.
Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in March 2011, the number of civilian casualties has
constantly increased. Although there are no official numbers – due to the lack of accessibility
of information –we count with different unofficial sources of information that gives us an idea
of these numbers.
The goal of this project is to analyze the spatial dimensions of violence and casualties
throughout the war in Syria. Identifying the geographic areas in which civilian population have
suffered high levels of violence and increased violation of human rights in Syria will have
different applications in a post conflict setting. The identification of these areas also will
potentially help identify any correlation between the areas where these crimes have been
committed and any ethnic, religious, gender or political affiliation pattern. GIS technology can
help to identify these aspects, as well as serve as a tool to post – conflict interventions in the
aftermath of a ceasefire and a transitional period.
The main two spatial questions this project will try to address are:


Which are the areas with a higher number of civilian casualties?
Is there any spatial relationship between these areas and the geographic distribution of
ethnicities in Syria?
(2) Annotated References
1. Levinger, Matthew (2009): “Geographical Information Systems Technology as a Tool
for Genocide Prevention: The Case of Darfur”, Space and Polity, 13:1, 69-76. Available
at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13562570902781249
This article raises the question of the potential use of GIS in future application in
preventing genocide crimes. It uses the case of Darfur as an example of how to use GIS
applied to a specific case and to project what happened into other cases. Also, this
article points out the relationship between GIS as a tool to bring public awareness about
a mass violation of human rights.
2. Weidmann, Nils B. and Salehyan, Idean: "Violence and Ethnic Segregation: A
Computational Model Applied to Baghdad” April 19th, 2010. Available at:
http://qssi.psu.edu/files/weidmann_salehyan.pdf
This article points out the validity of GIS in relating two variables in the Iraqi context:
ethnicity and violence after the Samarra bombing in 2006. The author explains how GIS
has helped to identify different levels of ethnic segregation and violence linked to it.
This article helps understanding how these two variables can be related using a GIS
model and what different types of analysis can be done. In this specific case, the author
uses a pre-insurgent / post-insurgent model to compare two moments in time.
GIS for International Applications
Assignment 7: Detailed Project Proposal
Ana Garcia
April 15, 2013
3. Steinberg, Michael K., Height, Carrie; Mosher; Rosemary, and Bampton, Mathew:
”Mapping massacres: GIS and state terror in Guatemala”, Science Direct, April 22,
2003. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718505000278
This paper explains how GIS has been used to display the locations of the massacres,
which were associated with Guatemala’s civil war. While doing this, the author raise
the importance, not only of the visual display of this type of information, but also, as a
tool of empowerment in Latin America as a source of information to fight for rights,
acknowledging past crimes and support transitional processes.
4. Gulden, Timothy R: ”Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Civil Violence: Guatemala
1977-1986”, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, Working Paper No. 26
February 2002. Available at:
http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/18215/1/Spatial%20and%20Te
mporal%20Patterns%20in%20Civil%20Violence%20Guatemala%201977%201986.pdf
This article shows the results of a GIS study that relates the variables of geographic
distribution of population based on ethnicity and the violence committed against
individuals. These empirical data, as the author mentions, may have further implications
in areas such as conflict prevention, peacekeeping, and post – conflict analysis of that
reality. Furthermore, It can be used as a model to be applied in other regions, such in the
case of Syria.
These results provide an empirical benchmark for the modeling of civil violence and
may have implications for conflict prevention, peace keeping, and the post-conflict
analysis of command structures.
(3) GIS Data Layers include data set name, description, data source agency and URL if
applicable, and key attributes variables you will use
Documented Killings from March 18, 2011 to January 27, 2013
1. Description: Excel document with the numbers of Syrian civilian casualties since the
beginning of the Syrian war until January 27th,, 2013 The casualties are divided by
Admin area – both in Arabic and in English (Admin1, Admin2 and Admin3) and also
by gender (male and female casualties) between others. We will choose the most
relevant categories to be displayed in our analysis. The data set contains other details
too. The data is collected by latitude and longitude. (X and Y axes).
2. Data Source Agency: Humanitarian Tracker Project – Syria.
3. URL: https://syriatracker.crowdmap.com/reports/view/3004 (in
4. https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?docid=15IysHPcziTFeQb8uVo1TF9r
AhwCbFHVYswMoR4c#rows:id=1
5. Key Attribute Information: Latitude and Longitude; numbers of civilian casualties by
geographic area between March 2001 and January 2013.
GIS for International Applications
Assignment 7: Detailed Project Proposal
Ana Garcia
April 15, 2013
Census Population 2004 - Syria
1. Description: Shapefile that contains census information for the population in Syria in
2004 – last census registered – for the Admin1 (Governorate), Admin2 (District),
Admin3 (Sub-district) and 4 (City).
2. Data Source Agency: Humanitarian Response, Common and Fundamental Operational
Datasets Registry.
3. URL: http://cod.humanitarianresponse.info/country-region/syrian-arab-republic (In
population Statistics 2004).
4. Key Attribute Information: Administrative name in each category; total population by
each governorate and in each administrative area.
Global Administrative Areas – Syria
1. Description: Shapefile that contains the administrative boundaries in Syria by
Admin0 (country), Admin1 (Governorates) and Admin2 (districts).
2. Data Source Agency: Global Administrative Areas (Gadm).
3. URL: http://www.gadm.org/download
4. Key Attribute Information: Administrative Boundaries in Syria for Admin0,
Admin1 and Admin2.
Syria Country based general information (roads, population, railroads, administrative
boundaries) Note: this shapefiles are not great. I need to find better base map information
from Syria. I have looked into Global Land Cover 2000 but any other ideas will be
helpful.
1. Description: Shape files with administrative boundaries, population, railroads, and
elevation (between others). More specifically:
a. Syria global file: “natural” points; “administrative boundaries (including
international boundaries);” “locations and addresses”; “coastline and water
bodies (polylines)”; “water”.
b. The website contains the same information about the following cities:
Dera’a, Aleppo, Damascus, Hama, Homs, and Idlib. These are relevant cities
in Syria when talking about the civil war in Syria.
2. Data Source Agency: Map Cruzin (free access website).
3. URL: http://www.mapcruzin.com/free-syria-country-city-place-gis-shapefiles.htm
4. Key Attribute Information: Coastline, water bodies, and elevation in Syria. Also,
the fact that I can look at specific geographic information for cities as relevant as
Damascus, Dera’a, Hama and Homs will give me the chance to contemplate the
option to look into detail to those.
Additional note about the accuracy of the data on the website: “The geodata, maps,
GIS shapefiles and other resources found on the MapCruzin.com website may come
from a variety of government, non-profit and private sources and it does not confirm
any accuracy on its sources.”
GIS for International Applications
Assignment 7: Detailed Project Proposal
Ana Garcia
April 15, 2013
Ethnic distribution in Syria down to the urban level
1.
2.
3.
4.
Description: Map containing the ethnic distribution down to the urban level
Data Source Agency: Columbia University – the Gulf Project.
URL: http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Syria_Ethnic_Detailed_sm.png
Key Attribute Information: ethnic distribution in Syria.
Note: when contacting the source of the map - Columbia university professor in charge of
this project and the website – I have been informed that I am not allowed to replicate the
map. The exact words used were: “No conversion of the maps or the wealth of text and
statistics information appended to them into any other format is allowed without my approval
and issuance of license for any such adaptations. However, you are free to use any of my
work (all maps and data posted on Gulf2000 web page) for your studies and academic
pursuits gratis. However, if you needed to adopt any of them into a new format, you would
need to stay in touch with me and allow me to see your work in progress and the final
product. All the same, the copyright of the work will remain fully mine even though you are
allowed to adapt it to your own format of choice”.
(4) Data creation, processing, and/or analysis steps
Number of casualties (by displaying latitude and longitude data on excel)
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Add the table (excel) to the table of contents.
Right-click  Display XY Data
Fill in the X Field and Y Field data (Longitude and Latitude respectively)
Create a shape file out of the layer right click  Select Data  Export
Choose the adequate coordinate system
Number of casualties Men from the total of civilian casualties: (Note: maybe looking at other
column – people armed v. unarmed – would be more interesting for the analysis.
a.
b.
c.
d.
Right Click the Layer  Properties Symbology
Change the color ramp accordingly
Field Number of casualties
Create a Layer from the selected features  Selection Create a Layer from
Selected features
Note: I am not sure I will do this or that it would add anything new to my analysis.
Density tool – which will give an idea of casualties per Administrative boundary/ area:
a. Enable Spatial Analyst Extension CustomizeExtensionsCheck the
Spatial Analyst box
b. Enable the Spatial Analyst toolbarCustomizeToolbarsSpatial Analyst
Toolbar.
GIS for International Applications
Assignment 7: Detailed Project Proposal
Ana Garcia
April 15, 2013
c. Set up the analysis options:
i. GeoprocessingEnvironments
ii. Under Output Coordinates  Output Coordinate System  Select
same as display
iii. Environment Settings Processing Extent  set to same as layer
TBD
d. To conduct the analysis: Select Spatial Analyst Tool DensityKernel
Density
i. Fill in the fields accordingly (input, population, output raster, output
cell size, area nits)
e. Go to the new layer created on your table of contents right click
Properties SymbologyClassified; select the color ramp
Mapping casualty points over ethnicity polygons
a. The way to go about this is still pending. For now, I have a detail map with ethic group
representations, but I am not authorized to use it. I might need to find additional ethnic
data (polygon data) to be able to proceed with my analysis.
(5) The products you hope to include on your poster (e.g, maps, table)
At the moment, I will likely only include maps on my poster, and potentially one table.




The representation of the civilian casualties since the beginning of the war.
The ethnic distribution in Syria.
The overlay or comparison of both layers to see the correlation between the two.
Table of the total number of civilian casualties (Note: I am not sure if the display of
table adds any substance to the analysis)