Travel Specialists Incorporated Instructor: Marvin Painter Date: July 13, 2011 Students: Hafeez Shariff, Robin Sandhawalia, Kristi Ronald, Ryan Sutherland, Lesley Mickla Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary 2.0 Industry Analysis 3.0 Marketing Plan 4.0 Human Resource Plan 5.0 Operational Plan 6.0 Financial Plan Appendices 1.0 Executive Summary Travel Specialists is a customized vacation provider, planning and booking tailored vacations for clientele requiring a specialized getaway. The company will consist of a team of travel agents, each specializing in a niche travelling experience. The key success factors for Travel Specialists are: The ability to locate a niche market of wealthy individuals who desire customized vacations but do not have the time, nor the expertise to plan their own vacation The continuation of commissions paid from airlines, hotels and vacation package dealerships Word-of-mouth referrals between individuals with high disposable income Marketing Plan In order to market Travel Specialists services, we are expecting word-of-mouth advertising to be the most prevalent source of information for our target market. The main travel agents employed will bring with them a strong clientele base from years of work in the travel industry. Once the clientele experience our exceptional service, we expect they will tell their friends and family about our services. Our target market is a niche of wealthy individuals, ranging from 5070 years of age with high disposable income who have the desire to take travel regularly. Operations Plan Travel Specialists have a small leased office located in an affluent downtown location. However, the travel agents themselves have the freedom to work and meet their clients at their own convenience. As a service provider, Travel Specialists expect their fixed and overhead costs to be relatively low. All agents will use the Travel Specialist operating software and attend training sessions to ensure quality control is high and firm policies and procedures are enforced; however, given the level of experience and responsibility of the agents, a high degree of freedom in operations is expected. HR Strategy Agents will be compensated solely through commissions. Since this is risky for the agents, it is imperative that those hired are well-established and have a strong customer base so they are able to earn a substantial income. We expect that the agents we hire will want to work on a commission basis because they expect they will earn a substantial amount. Travel Specialists takes 30% of the commissions earned on each trip booked, leaving the agent with 70% commission on each sale. This is substantially higher than the industry average, and is our strategy to attract and retain preeminent agents. Financial Plan We expect the initial start-up costs to be about $21,000. We expect losses in the first year of operations in the magnitude of about $10,000 with the break-even point coming shortly after our second year in operation. We have predicted 10% growth in years 2 and 3, with a levelling off in growth to about 3% per year. We are expecting a rate of return to be 34%, making Travel Specialists a lucrative and promising investment. 1.1 Introduction to Travel Specialists Inc. Travel Specialists is a customized vacation provider, planning and booking tailored vacations for clientele requiring a specialized getaway. Vision Statement - To become the leading niche travel agency in Vancouver by providing specialized vacations to meet all clientele needs. Mission Statement - Our mission is to become the leading specialized travel company by planning customized vacations that create exceptional value for our customers. Value Proposition Customized vacations planned by specialists who have extensive and unique knowledge about a specific travel niche. Target Market In general, our target market will be individuals in or nearing retirement, with high disposable income and specific vacation requirements they would like to be met in a customized package. Our target customers do not have the time or the expertise to plan their own vacation and instead would like the service specially performed for them. Our target market does not require the most inexpensive vacation, but would rather have a vacation that provides excellent value for the cost. Our ideal customer has the funds and desire to take several vacations each year. Competition The major source of competition is the internet, and the fact that customers can book their own vacation relatively easily through web-based sites. Our job is to provide a valuable service that exceeds what a customer could plan and book on their own. Competitive Advantage Travel Specialists will employ agents with specific knowledge in one area; instead of a group of travel agents with broad knowledge about many vacations, our agents will have extensive knowledge and experience in a main area. This will provide exceptional value to a niche of customers looking for a customized vacation. The agents themselves will be compensated solely on commissions at a higher level than the average travel agency; this will provide incentive for the agents to excel and become an industry expert in their specialized knowledge area. Risk The risk in this start-up business is relatively low; if the business is not successful, the start-up costs are minor. The major risk factor is the ability to bring together the right group of travel specialists who bring a wealth of experience and a network of clients to earn commissions for the company. 2.0 Industry Overview As Canada edged out of the recession in 2009, Canadians started to regain interest in travelling. As a result, during 2010 and 2011, the Canadian travel and tourism industry started to thrive again. The trend for domestic and outbound travel by Canadians was positive, and the number of travelers and tourism revenues regained the ground lost during the recession. This, accompanied with the strong Canadian dollar has made the travel industry one of the hottest industries in Canada for 2011. With over three in four Canadian adults taking annual vacations, pleasure travel has become a large and important industry. Canadians spend tens of billions of dollars within Canada itself and billions more in other countries. According to the latest statistics released by Tourism Canada, Canada received a total of $74.7 billion from tourism in 2008. Out of this $74.7 billion, $59.1 billioni was spent by Canadians on domestic travel. This number is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2% in the upcoming years. In Statistics Canada’s General Social Survey of 2005, between the periods of 1992 to 2005, Canadians were noted as being more active on an overall basis. Further to this study, it found that the highest participation rate of active leisure participants were within the British Columbia region – 28%. This is the highest participation region rate within Canada. This helps illustrate that British Columbian’s enjoy living and an adventurous lifestyle compared to other areas of Canada and are constantly looking for ways to increase their activity levels including travel. Therefore, this region provides Travel Specialists with a great potential for business success. Operating a non-traditional Travel Agency in West Vancouver, BC is a promising endeavor as there is a growing population of affluent individuals and families residing in the area. A census completed by statistics Canada in 2006 shows that the median household income in the West Vancouver area was $76,893, while the median household income across Canada was $53,634. This makes West Vancouver an ideal location for Travel Specialists as Travel Specialists is targeting the middle to upper income earners in the work force who are willing to spend a little extra on a trip in order to have the experience that they want. The graphic below shows a map of the Metro Vancouver area highlighting the median household income in each city. The West Vancouver district has a median income of between $70,000-99,000. The “do-it-yourself” or independent traveler is becoming more prevalent in the Internet age and is a threat to Travel Specialists. Potential travelers can take greater control over their travel plans if they are online. Not only is the Internet a useful tool for information gathering, it also allows people to compare prices and options to locate the best deals available. However, a recent Google survey showed that whilst many travelers will research their travel arrangements online, 65% of travel is booked with a travel agentii. This presents a large opportunity for Travel Specialists to obtain and retain clients with our specialized services, and shows there is a lucrative market available.1 ihttp://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/dsib-tour.nsf/vwapj/Sept-2009-Tourism-Highlights- EN.pdf/$file/Sept-2009-Tourism-Highlights-EN.pdf ii http://www.travelindustrycareers.org/industry-sector/travel-agent 3.0 Marketing Analysis 3.1 Our Specialized Services Every customer wants a different experience from their vacation. Some want to golf on the world’s nicest courses, others want to relax on the hottest and whitest beaches. Travel Specialists will employ agents who are experts in different areas. When a client comes to our company we will be able to provide an agent who has been all over the word and experienced the best of that particular travel area. Through agents recommendations and additional research where necessary, the trip will be organized and booked by the agent to meet any customer need. At inception our agent expertise will include: The world’s top golf courses The top locations for weddings Bachelor Party weekend getaways Over time as our agent base grows we will expand the different types of expertise that we offer. As we expand this knowledge of the expertise, we will be able to grow our service lines that Travel Specialists offer. We plan to look for industry experts in the following potential areas in the future: The world’s best beaches Top historic sites and world churches Sporting events (Soccer, Football, Tennis) Business Trips and Convention destinations 3.2 Pricing Overall the pricing strategy that we use is a value pricing strategy compared to other travel agencies. In order to be competitive we need to charge similar prices. However, since we provide additional services customized to the needs of the client, we will charge a slight premium over other travel agencies. The more time spent by an agent planning and customizing a trip, the greater the premium charged. 3.3 Promotion The promotion plan for our business involves minimal advertising. Instead Travel Solutions will rely on word of mouth referrals, as well as the agents to bring their own established clientele base with them when they switch to our company. Retaining existing clientele The travel industry is similar to other service industries, such as hair salons, where if it is convenient for the customer, clients tend to stay with the service provider if they switch companies. Clients are for the most part loyal to the person performing the service in these types of businesses, especially if they are satisfied with the service being provided. We are providing the agents the ability to be flexible and cater to their clients, which will allow the customers to easily follow the agent to Travel Specialists. Word of mouth Word of mouth is another method we are planning on using to get our name into the market. As experts in a particular type of travel niche, we will work with the customer to provide the ultimate experience in the best locations around the world. Once one customer has a positive experience, using golf as an example, they will tell all their golf friends about it. These friends of our current customer will then come to us and use our expertise to plan the trip they desire. Advertisement A final method of marketing that Travel Specialists will pursue is running advertisements in local news papers and at locations specific to our expertise. For example, we will run ads at local golf courses or within local bridal magazines and dress shops. 3.4 Target market The market that Travel Solutions is targeting is the middle to upper income earners ($70,000 plus) in the work force who are willing to spend a little extra on a trip in order to have the experience that they want. The age of these individuals is not limited to but will be targeted towards the baby boomer age demographic (45-70 years). The individuals in this demographic are the people who will be entering retirement or are 2newly retired and are looking to experience the world in a way that they haven’t in the past. Our target market has enormous potential because during the next decade more and more baby boomers are going to be entering the early years of retirement. According to Stats Canada over the next decade one in five people will be aged 55 to 64 in Canada offering a huge potential market to be tapped iii. It is also anticipated that iii http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2007/07/17/census-canada.html many baby boomers want to continue working past retirement age. Doing so will further add to their disposable income providing wealth in excess of current pension plans that will allow people to take trips and do things they wanted to but struggled to afford in the past. Getting service to our clients Our agents will have flexibility in where they meet clients. Agents can set up meetings at either our local office or at a location convenient for the client. We know that the customers we are targeting have busy schedules and or would rather not have the hassle of coming into our office. To cater to these needs we offer flexibility which will ensure the client is comfortable and relaxed during the process of planning their vacation. We feel that by offering this flexibility we can offer our agents the option to work from home as well. This provides the agent flexibility to set up meetings and work at their own leisure. Both these factors will result in a better travel package presented to the client and in turn better word of mouth promotion for the service we offer. 4.0 Human Resources Organizational Structure CEO Lesley Mickla Travel Specialist: Travel Specialist: Travel Specialist: Kristi Ronald Hafeez Shariff Robin Sandhawalia Destination Weddings Golf Getaways Bachelor Parties Management Team The management team will consist of the CEO and sole shareholder Lesley Mickla. The CEO will perform a management role, overseeing three to four travel specialists upon inception of the business. 4.1 CEO: Job Description The CEO’s major role in the first year of operation will be to oversee the day-to-day operations of the company. The CEO will perform the following job duties: Recruit and retain skilled travel specialists Network and engage in actively seeking customers Establish and execute training programs Perform administrative, day-to-day duties at the Travel Specialist office The CEO has over 20 years experience in the travel industry, and is well versed in planning and preparing customized vacation trips for large groups of customers. Training of agents to sell the Travel Specialist way is crucial to the company’s success. Training sessions will be run for agents by Lesley. She has over 25 years experience in the travel industry. She knows what it takes to be successful providing quality service to customers. 4.2 Travel Specialist: Job Description Travel Specialists will be looking for agents with at least 15 years experience in the travel agency industry. Each travel agent will have a specialized knowledge about a particular travel niche. For example, one travel agent is a specialist in planning destination weddings; she is knowledgeable about the trendiest wedding destinations, particular hotels that will best meet the wedding needs of their clients, knowledge of wedding activities and services provided at different hotels and countries. Similarly, another specialist will focus on golf getaways; he has extensive knowledge of the most beautiful and challenging courses in the world. He is well versed in golf himself, having played a majority of the worlds’ courses. Based on their expert knowledge, the travel agents will be able to plan an entire customized vacation including flights, hotels, planned activities and other transportation needs to satisfy the customer. 4.3 HR Strategy Attracting Employees All employees will come to Travel Specialists with their own existing client base. The employees will be motivated to work for Travel Specialists for the following reasons: High commissions available to the specialists Increased flexibility in work schedule Greater focus on the niche market they specialize in Greater access to high income individuals and potential clientele through word of mouth referrals and overall company reputation Commission Current industry practice is for entering travel agents to work on a fixed salary. While this provides the most reliable source of income, there is no potential upside for the agent to book an entire wedding party or extravagant group vacation. As the travel agent gains experience, the some agents will begin working on a commission. The commissions are typically as follows: o o o o Cruise Bookings: 10-18% of cost Flight Bookings: Approximately $50 per booking Vacation Bookings (Including Flight and Hotel): 10% of cost Supplier Incentives: Flat fee based on contract; agreement to push particular product Many agencies take at least 50% of the commission earned, leaving 50% or less for the agent themselves. Of the commission earned, Travel Specialists will take a 30% cut, leaving the travel agent with 70% as income. This is higher than the industry average, and one of the major advantages to the travel agent to work for Travel Specialists. Increased Flexibility in Work Schedule The high caliber of travel agents that will be working at Travel Specialists means that they will have strong clientele base and excellent industry knowledge. Travel Specialists will not require the agents to come into an office daily. The travel agent will have the freedom to work from home or via email with their clients Travel Specialists will provide a small office in which the travel agents can book space to meet with clients on an asneeded basis. However, day-to-day, the travel agents will typically meet their clientele where it is most convenient for the client, or simply through an email or phone conversation. This allows the agent to work their own flexible hours, booking vacations and meeting with clients as required by the customer. Focus on Niche Market and Access to new Clientele Many travel agents in the industry have specialized knowledge. Working at Travel Specialists will allow the agents to focus most of their time booking trips and vacations for clientele in areas they are most knowledgeable about. This will benefit both the client, and the agent, who through continued research and analysis will become an industry leading expert. Additionally, as the company begins to grow, Travel Specialists will build a niche customer base of individuals with a high amount of residual income and desire to travel. The customers will likely use other agents within the company as their desires for vacations change, providing the agents with access to a wider customer base. Motivation The travel agents’ entire earnings are based on their commission; therefore, they will be highly motivated to plan and book as many large vacations as possible. The agent will constantly be motivated to increase their clientele base, and network their own services to book for large groups and extravagant trips. Travel Specialists will also be looking to expand their specialized travel agents. Therefore, a small bonus will be paid to any agent who recommends a travel agent to Travel Specialists which results in the hiring of a new agent. Expected Earnings The average annual earnings for a travel agent in Canada with 10-19 years experience is $19,000-$43,000, while the average annual earnings for a travel agent with greater than 20 years experience is $22,000-45,000. Commissions make up a smaller portion of the compensation, with average annual commissions less than $15,000 per year.3 Labour and Management Costs The Travel Specialist office will be open Monday-Friday from 9am-5pm. The CEO will earn a base salary of $36,000 per year, before considering her own travel commissions, dividends or bonuses. All travel specialists will work on an entirely commissions basis. Travel Specialists will provide the agents with full benefit packages. Training Training travel specialists is an important service Travel Specialists will provide agents. It ensures that all the travel agents associated with the business continue to be qualified well-informed individuals who value continued education and professional development. All travel specialists will receive a training session prior to their start date to establish the code of conduct, policies and job expectations at Travel Specialists. Training sessions will also highlight annual industry trends, hotspots and developments in consumer preferences. Training will become more important as the business begins to grow and additional agents become affiliated with Travel Specialists. At least one training session is required to be attended each year by each agent. Most training will be performed by Lesley Mickla, CEO, unless an expert is brought in for a special presentation. 3 http://www.payscale.com/research/CA/Job=Travel_Agent/Salary 5.0 Operation Plan 5.1 Organizational Structure Travel Specialists is currently 100% owned by Lesley Mickla. We are currently looking to bring on a private investor. Lesley is willing to use personal funding along with potential investor funding to constitute the start up capital. All travel agents (“employees”) will be paid by commission and brought on board to the team by Lesley. New agents will be entered into the training program for certification prior to beginning as Travel Specialists. 5.2 Operations Plan: Quality Control Program Travel specialists will utilize the expertise of the owner/manager as well as build on their own extensive experience in the industry. Agents are able to work from home, at the office, or anywhere they feel fit, and have the ability to book a meeting at the prestigious location of Travel Specialists Incorporated when necessary. The agents will be given weekly tips and quarterly performance evaluations by expert and CEO, Lesley Mickla. However, much of the quality control will be in hiring the correct staff that are independent, self motivated and responsible to plan and book trips that satisfy their customers. It is in the best financial interest for the agents to network and bring in additional clients, in addition to serving their current customer base. The agents will have access to the base Travel Specialists operating system with all the conveniences at their fingertips at no fee. This will include a prestigious office space to meet with new and existing clients. They will have complete access to Galileo, which is a specialized travel agent operating system available in the marketplace, which Travel Specialists plans to purchase and utilize. 5.3 Supply Analysis Travel packages are available based on rates and discounts offered by companies such as WestJet, Air Canada, etc. The lines of integration are already in place to offer deals to agents. Additionally, long standing relations are in place with owner/manager and the extension of these available deals and terms will be passed along to the Travel Specialists. This will allow the Travel Specialist agents the ability to plan and book trips according to their client needs. 5.4 Service Exceptional service is the key to attracting repeat business and exceeding our client’s expectations, and as such is our main focus. We are able to book any trip our clients can dream, including flights, hotels, condos, getaway homes, courses, excursions, cruises, cars and boats. Our niche areas of expertise will be imperative to offer the best possible service for our clients, exceed the expectations of our clients and provide more value than our competitors. 5.5 Niche Markets Upon entering into the Travel Specialists training program, distributors will announce an area of expertise and expand the ever-growing list of specialized agents. They will base their practices on this area and refer clients to other specialists within niche needs. Each niche specialist will become attuned to their focus-area. The main purpose is to establish our reputation, become a recognized brand and to have respected niche leaders in each travel area. 5.6 Day-to-Day Operations Travel specialists will operate on their own time according to their own clients needs. Each agent will be required to have smart phones and be able and expected to answer their clients’ needs (phone calls and emails) within a 12 hour time frame. They will be able to work from home, their clients meeting places i.e. coffee shops, their offices or utilize the space of the base office The base office will be open Monday to Friday 10AM until 5PM and after hours by appointment only. The base office will be closed weekends and holidays. Clients can phone the base office as well to have their questioned answers and be giving travel advice, or for general inquiry needs. 5.7 Location and Floor Plan Travel Specialists has leased an office in a well-known building in West Vancouver just off Marine Drive. This location was chosen for the following reasons: West Vancouver is known as a prestigious place to be, housing neighbourhoods such as the British Properties, Park Royal, Dundarave, and Cypress areas. Many prominent businesses are located in the area such as The Ocean Club, which will ensure easy access for our target market. The leased space is located at #6-636 Clyde Avenue West Vancouver, BC V7T 1E1 Features of the base office space will include: The office space will be renovated extensively, and although the appearance will be beyond grand, it does not need to be large Most travel specialists will work from home and utilize the office space only to meet with clients or come in for training, performance evaluations, and advice from the owner Premier signage Marketing opportunities within office building Neighbouring wealthy residences nearby that will see the premise Parking Personal office spaces (5) to be booked by travel specialists for meetings Owner/manager office Training program ‘Core’ space for evening tutorials Nearby specialty coffee shops for meetings The 2 year operating lease locks in a low rent fee ($850 base plus utilities) to ease the pressure of capital expenditures and initial start up costs, giving Travel Specialists the maximum cash flow to commence the initialization process 5.8 Future Growth Currently, we will maintain 5 desk spaces, but will be planning for expansion in the future. Expansion will occur once Travel Specialists begins to have stable operations and if the supply for a new travel expert with a niche travel knowledge base is present. However, we do not plan to lease additional office space in the short-term, as the offices will be booked by the agents to meet with clientele, but will not be used every day by the same agent. We encourage the agents to meet their clients where it is convenient for the customer, meeting at the Travel Specialists office only if the client works or lives in the area and wishes to meet there. 5.9 Operations Plan: Capital Budget The first year of operations requires the most significant start-up capital. We have signed the lease and secured the space: Leasehold Improvements We will be extensively renovating the premises. The owner of the building has agreed to match the cost of the renovations 50/50 up to $5,000. We expect that the total of the renovations for new granite flooring and installation, crown moulding and trim, paint, front area space extension, and new windows and coverings, bathroom and break area upgrade will cost $15,000, therefore $10,000 our cost ($15,000 - $5,000 rebate) Three Travel Specialist office spaces and one owner-manager desk will be created with the capacity for five to operate (2 in one office) Office equipment We require the purchase of office supplies, desks, chairs, printers, computers, and phones. The computers will be laptops and will be the property of the company but the specialists will be given the laptops to use during their contract periods. Any repairs and maintenance and upkeep will be at the discretion of the travel specialist Initial cost involved will be $11,000 Total Initial Capital Outlay; $21,000 ($10,000 + $11,000) Type Leasehold improvements Leasehold improvement rebate Dell laptops Desks Printer Chairs Front-end waiting chairs Front-end waiting table Lamps Total capital outlay Quantity Cost Amount $ 15,000 $ 15,000 (5,000) (5,000) 5 1,000 5,000 5 500 2,500 1 500 500 5 300 1,500 2 300 600 1 400 400 5 100 500 $ 21,000 Future Costs Due to the current nature of the specialists business and time actually in the office, the need for space will not be extensive in the near future. There may be a requirement in the long-term future for expansion to a new space which may require leasehold improvements, desks, computers, etc. The following is an example of potential long-term expansion when a significant number of agents operate through Travel Specialists Inc. 5.10 Operating Costs Monthly operating costs will be fixed costs; minimum expenses will be maintained to ensure cash flow ability. The following are unavoidable costs of operating the premises: Salary The salary includes a minimum salary of $3,000 per month for the owner-manager to take to pay personal bills in the initial operations. This remuneration will be held at minimum to continue increased cash flows, at least for the years following inception. The owner will also be selling travel experiences and will receive the 70% commission on all sales just as the regular travel specialists. Potential dividend remuneration will be announced upon continued long-term growth and success. Rent, Utilities, Telephone and Internet The 2 year lease agreement locks us in to a low-rent fee of $850 per month plus utilities of approximately $200 per month (heat, power, and water). Telephone and internet cost is $50 per month with the new customer business plan with Novus. Dues and subscriptions Two software packages will be utilized: Galileo Software The operating system for Travel Specialists at a cost of $200 per month access fee for up to 10 users. Travel Accountants Software The 3rd party outsourced commission based sales tracking system and payroll system at a cost of $300 per month. This fee includes the fee for service as well as the discount fees paid to the Bank, Visa, MasterCard, and American Express. Advertising The marketing plan is to continue to more extensive long-term and referral based programs. Office Supplies Includes paper, postage, etc. Meals and Entertainment Coffee and lunch dates with respected clients and owner-manager. Insurance We require both general liability insurance and premise insurance at a cost of $150 per month. Example Monthly Operating Expenses: Account 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5400 5500 5600 Expense Salaries and Wages Rent Utilities Internet and phone Dues and subscriptions Dues and subscriptions Advertising Office supplies Meals and 5700 entertainment 5800 Insurance Total monthly operating costs Description Owner's salary 2 year lease agreement Heat/power/water Novus package Galileo software Travel Accountant (3rd party outsource) Public relations Paper, postage, etc. Amount $ 3,000 850 200 60 200 300 100 50 Client meetings Liability and premises $ 100 150 5,010 5.12 Working Capital Working capital will arise from the sales of travel packages. The majority of clients pay by way of Visa or MasterCard, as many customers do not wish to pay for a trip in cash. Negotiated discount rates will be a must with the Bank, Visa, MasterCard, and American Express to pay reduced fees on transactions. It will be imperative that cash inflow and outflow is managed properly to generate positive cash flows both short term and long term. Please see the budgeted cash flow statement in the Appendix. Travel Specialists Incorporated is expected to generate positive cash flows within its first year of operations based on our conservative analysis. 6.0 Financial Plan 6.1 Start-Up Capital The start-up capital required for Travel Specialists is as follows: Office Equipment $11,000 Renovations $10,000 Total Start-up Costs $21,000 6.2 Financial Projection Travel Specialists will generate revenue through 4 revenue streams: Revenue Stream Revenue Generated Airline Tickets $50 per ticket Cruise Packages 10-18% of dollar value of sale Vacation Packages 10% of Package Suppliers Flat Fees to push product Based on the above revenue streams, Appendix 1 shows a monthly forecast for the first year of operations. In Year 1 of operations, Travel Specialists will generate a net loss of $9,197. However, Travel Specialists is projected to generate a positive net income as quickly as in Year 2 of operations. Appendix 2 shows a 5 Year Financial Projection for Travel Specialists. The projection assumes that we will experience growth of 25% in years 2 and 3. We believe Years 2 and 3 will be our strongest growth years as we will be more established in the industry. As well, we believe that delivering quality service to our customers will generate positive word of mouth advertising, thus generating new clientele. The projection then assumes that growth rates will decrease to a more sustainable level of growth at 3% thereon. The forecast projects that Travel Specialists will generate a net income of $2,423 in Year 2. Net income will gradually increase each year reaching $25,986 by Year 5. It should be noted that these numbers are extremely conservative. A conservative approach was used to factor in the difficulties of attracting and retaining new clientele as well as factor in any other uncontrollable circumstances that may occur in the future that will impact revenue. 6.3 Valuation of Travel Specialists Appendix 4 shows a valuation of Travel Specialists based on the Net Cash Flows to Equity. The valuation assumes a required rate of return of 20%. The required rate of return on a small business often ranges between 20 – 40%. However, as the financial projections in Appendices 1 and 2 extremely conservative, these projections are believed to be less risky, thus requiring a lower discount rate. The valuation can be summarized with the following: Start-Up Capital (21,000) Total PV of Cash Flows 33,822 PV of Tax Shield 11,340 Terminal Value 48,577 NPV 72,740 IRR 34% 6.4 Required Cash Injection A cash flow projection for the first 5 years of operations was calculated in Appendix 5. Travel specialists will require cash in order to fund the initial capital outlay for office supplies and renovation, and sufficient cash to survive the net loss in Year 1 of operations. Travel Specialists will require an initial cash injection of $30,000. 6.5 Break Even Cash Flow Projection A break even analysis for cash flows is shown in Appendix 5 and can be seen below. 60,000 40,000 20,000 Series1 0 1 2 3 4 5 (20,000) (40,000) The above graph shows that Travel Specialists will be in a positive cash position during the midpoint of Year 2. By Year 5, Travel Specialists will have a positive cash balance of greater than $50,000. With a cash injection of $30,000, Travel Specialists will have sufficient cash to survive the initial years of operations. 6.6 Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis was performed in Appendix 6. The sensitivity analysis assumed weaker growth in Years 2 and 3 at only 10% (as opposed to 25%). The results of the analysis show a net loss in Years 1 and 2; however a positive net income will be generated in Years 3 through 5. Although the weak growth scenario would not affect the initial cash requirement due to such low overhead costs, it would affect the cash flow breakeven point. Appendix 7 shows the breakeven analysis for this scenario. The results of this analysis can be seen in the graph below. 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) 1 2 3 4 5 Series1 (10,000) (15,000) (20,000) (25,000) (30,000) In a weak growth scenario, the company will break even in between Years 4 and 5, and from thereon be in a positive cash position. This is promising considering that even a poor scenario, the company will still breakeven within 5 years. 6.7 Financing Options Option 1 Travel Specialists is willing to offer 40% of the business for $30,000. Equity Financing cash Flow Cash Balance atEnd of Year 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Series1 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Option 2 Travel Specialists is requesting $40,000 of debt financing at an interest rate of 20% annually, repayable in 5 years. Based on the cash flow analysis performed in Appendix 8, Travel Specialists will have sufficient cash to repay the debt amount in Year 5. Travel specialists will also have sufficient cash to run operations and service the interest payments. Debt Financing Cash Flow Cash Balance at End of Year 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Series1 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Appendix I SWOT Analysis The following SWOT analysis captures the key strengths and weaknesses within the company, and describes the opportunities and threats facing Travel Specialists. Strengths Low employee to customer ratio – leading to low overhead costs Commissions sole remuneration for travel specialists reduces risk of company losses Excellent agents who are highly specialized and very customer focused High customer loyalty among repeat customers A truly unique, high end, service offering A training program that educates agents to ensure exceptional service Weaknesses Challenging to find travel agents who possess the specialized skills and customercentric attitude Ability to continuously offer new and exciting trips while maintaining the level of quality that is established over time from repetitive trip offerings Opportunities Growing number of retiring baby boomers with expendable income, with market research supporting strong preferences for customized trips A unique specialization focused agency does not currently exist and will gain customer loyalty by being first-to-market Can offer higher percentage of commission to specialized agents based on low overhead The ability to spread fixed management overhead costs over an increasing number of agents and vacations Having specialized agents in each type of vacation gives Travel Specialists a competitive advantage against other travel agent competitors Threats The travel industry is highly dependent on the economy Online bargain travel sites offer the lowest prices and make shopping around easier Increasing fuel prices could make travel very expensive thus reducing margins Other travel agencies could imitate the specialized agents approach