Nancy Fresco
SNAP Network Coordinator
3352 College Road, Fairbanks AK 99709
Phone: (907) 474-2405
email: nlfresco@alaska.edu
CURRENT FUNDED RESEARCH
Climate Change Scenario Planning for Alaska Region National Park System Units (PI)
Partners/Funders: NPS
2010 – present
This three-year project will help Alaska NPS managers, cooperating personnel, and key stakeholders to
develop plausible climate change scenarios for all NPS areas in Alaska.
 In year one, SNAP, NPS personnel, and key stakeholders participated in a climate change
scenario training workshop in Alaska to establish a process for climate change scenario planning
and set the stage to develop a work plan for subsequent, more detailed scenarios development.
 In years two and three, SNAP, NPS personnel and cooperators completed climate change
scenario planning exercises and reports for the NPS units in Alaska, organized around each of the
four inventory and monitoring (I&M) networks of parks in Alaska.
 In years three and four, SNAP is collaborating with NPS to create comprehensive visitors’ guides
to be used (in print and electronic form) in all National Park areas in the state.
Yukon Lowlands-Kuskokwim Mountains-Lime Hills Rapid Ecoregional Assessment
Partners/Funders: BLM
2012 – 2014
North Slope Rapid Ecoregional Assessment
Partners/Funders: BLM
2012 – 2015
Central Yukon Rapid Ecoregional Assessment
Partners/Funders: BLM
2013 – 2015
Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) represent an essential approach of BLM’s landscape
management strategy. This approach overlaps broadly with the objectives of the University of
Alaska’s Alaska Natural Heritage Program, the Institute for Social and Economic Research, and
Scenarios Network for Alaskan Planning, and NatureServe. REAs are initiated from questions
of resource managers and decision-makers concerning current and anticipated natural resource
issues within an ecoregion. These questions are then systematically addressed, with the majority
of questions treated in an explicitly spatial context at 15 and 50 year time steps. Information
derived from REAs in Alaska therefore creates a suite of information on species and habitats of
conservation concern, socio-economics, ecological processes, and most importantly the
interaction of these elements and agents of change, such as climate, wildfire, development, and
invasive species. SNAP will contribute to all stages of these projects, including:
 Review and refine the initial BLM lists of Management Questions, Change Agents, and
Conservation Elements
 Develop the ecoregion conceptual model
 Identify, Evaluate, and Recommend Potential Data
 Identify, Evaluate, and Recommend Models, Methods, and Tools
 Prepare Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP)
 Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets
 Prepare Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Documents
SELECTED RECENTLY COMPLETED FUNDED RESEARCH
Predicting Potential Future Biomes for Alaska (PI)
Partners: USFWS; Dr. Falk Huettmann, UAF IAB
Funder: USFWS
March 2010 – September 2011
This project’s objectives included:
 developing climate and vegetation based biomes for Alaska using SNAP climate data and other
historical climate data, AVHRR data or other landcover classes for Alaska and Canada, and
cluster analysis methodology.
 using the biomes developed above to identify areas within Alaska that are least likely to change
and those most likely to change over the next 100 years, based on SNAP’s 2km down-scaled
climate models for Alaska, all 12 months of climate data, and multiple climate scenarios to
predict future distributions.
Canadian Biome Shift Analysis (PI)
Funders: The Nature Conservancy, Ducks Unlimited Canada, Gov’t Canada, Gov’t NWT
Partners: TNC, DUC, Gov’t CA, Gov’t NWT, UAF IAB
April 2010 -- March 2011
This project was intended to:
 develop climate and vegetation based biomes for the Yukon and the Northwest Territories, and
 based on climate data, identify areas within the Yukon and the Northwest Territories that are least
likely to change and those that are most likely to change over the next 100 years.
The completed biome shift analysis will be used by Ducks Unlimited Canada and other partners involved
in protected areas, land use, and sustainable land use planning, which will contribute to waterfowl and
wetland conservation in the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.
Yukon Climate Projections (PI)
November 2009 – November 2010
Funder/Partner: Northern Climate Exchange, Yukon College
The goal of this project was to create the following climate projections for the Whitehorse area and the
Yukon Territories, based on SNAP data and models:
 projected change for temperature and precipitation for each of two emissions scenarios (A1B and
B1) and two time periods (2030 and 2050), and
 as time, funding, and data availability allow, additional projections for derived climate variables,
including frost-free days, water availability, and growing degree days.
SNAP assisted in the interpretation of the above data.
Southeast Alaska Hydropower: Reconsidering climate variability and change in the development
process (Co-I)
Funder: National Marine Fisheries Service
Partners: NMFS, IARC, WERC, Hydroelectric plant managers July 2008 – June 2010
The goals of the project were:
 to assess whether recent precipitation and reservoir inflow anomalies in Southeast Alaska are
within the normal range of variability over the observational record, or whether they are evidence
of a potential regime shift associated with climate change, and
 to apply the above assessment to water resource management with respect to Sitka’s Blue Lake
and Green Lake projects.
The results of this study are intended to be useful to other hydroelectric utilities throughout southeast
Alaska.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
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Network Coordinator, Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP), University of Alaska;
2007-present
Coordinated collaborative statewide climate change research and modeling efforts, and
communicated model results and adaptation strategies to stakeholders
Project Manager, Northern Alaska Environmental Center, Fairbanks AK; 1999-2006
Researched, documented, and presented forest conservation and urban socio-ecological issues in
Interior Alaska
Internship, Alaska Boreal Forest Council, Fairbanks AK; 2003
Created a comprehensive annotated bibliography: “Functional and Ecological Roles of Stand
Age Class Diversity in Boreal Alaska”; researched uses and markets for Alaska birch syrup, a
local non-timber forest product
Graduate Field Researcher, Mistik Management, Meadow Lake SK, Canada; 1998&1999
Collected and analyzed field data on species composition, tree growth, soil moisture, soil
temperature, herbivore browse, and insolation in a multi-tiered boreal forest research project
Graduate Research Assistant, New England Carbon Project, Yale University; 1997-1999
Analyzed soil samples for pH, carbon, and nitrogen
U.S. Peace Corps Volunteer, Jamaica, Environmental Sector; 1995-1997
Led a locally-based reforestation effort and environmental education effort in a rural
agricultural region
PUBLICATIONS
2012
Jonathan R. Thompson, Arnim Wiek , Frederick J. Swanson, Stephen R. Carpenter, Nancy
Fresco, Teresa Hollingsworth, Thomas A. Spies, David R. Foster. Scenario studies as a
synthetic and integrative research activity for long term ecological research. BioSci.62 (4):
367-376.
2011
Jane M. Wolken, Teresa N. Hollingsworth, T. Scott Rupp, Sarah F. Trainor, Tara M. Barrett,
Eric A. Beever, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Jeff S. Conn, Lisa K. Crone, David V. D’Amore,
Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Nancy Fresco, Thomas, A. Hanley, Paul E. Hennon, Knut Kielland,
James J. Kruse, A. David McGuire, Trista Patterson, Edward A.G. Schuur, Paddy Sullivan,
David L. Verbyla, John Yarie. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate
change in Alaska’s forest ecosystems. Ecosphere 11:124.
2010
Gary P. Kofinas1, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Shauna BurnSilver, Jennifer I. Schmidt, Nancy L.
Fresco, Knut Kielland, Stephanie Martin, Anna Springsteen, and T. Scott Rupp. Resilience of
Athabascan subsistence systems to Interior Alaska’s changing climate. Canadian Journal of
Forest Research. 40: 1347–1359.
2009
Nancy Fresco and F. Stuart Chapin III. Assessing the Potential for Conversion to Biomass
Fuels in Interior Alaska. Pacific Northwest Research Station. Research Paper. PNW-RP-579.
Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 56 p.
2009
Sarah F. Trainor, Monika Calef, David Natcher, F. Stuart Chapin III, A. David McGuire,
Orville Huntington, Paul Duffy, T. Scott Rupp, La’Ona DeWilde, Mary Kwart, Nancy Fresco
Amy Lauren Lovecraft. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural
and urban interior Alaska. Polar Research. Vol 28, No. 1, pp. 100-118.
2007
F. Stuart Chapin III, Kjell Danell, Thomas Elmqvist, Carl Folke and Nancy Fresco. Managing
Climate Change Impacts to Enhance Resilience and Sustainability of Fennoscandian Forests.
Ambio. Vol. 6, No. 7, pp. 528-533.
2006
F. Stuart Chapin, III, Martin Robards, Henry P. Huntington, Jill F. Johnstone, Sarah F. Trainor, Gary
P. Kofinas, Roger W. Ruess, Nancy Fresco, David C. Natcher, and Rosamond L. Naylor. Directional
Changes in Ecological Communities and Social-Ecological Systems: A Framework for Prediction
Based on Alaskan Examples. American Naturalist.
2004
Bruce C. Forbes, Nancy Fresco, Anatoly Shvidenko, Kjell Danell and F. Stuart Chapin, III.
Geographic Variations in Anthropogenic Drivers that Influence the Vulnerability and
Resilience of Social-Ecological Systems. Ambio 3(6): 377-382
2004
F.S. Chapin, III, G. Peterson, F. Berkes, T. V. Callaghan, P. Angelstam, M. Apps, C. Beier,
Y. Bergeron, A.-S. Crépin, K. Danell, T. Elmqvist, C. Folke, B. Forbes, N. Fresco, G. Juday,
J. Niemelä, A. Shvidenko, and G. Whiteman. Resilience and Vulnerability of Northern
Regions to Social and Environmental Change. Ambio 3(6): 344–349.
2003
F. Stuart Chapin, III, T. Scott Rupp, Anthony M. Starfield, La-ona DeWilde, Erika S.
Zavaleta, Nancy Fresco, Jonathon Henkelman, and A. David McGuire. Planning for
resilience: modeling change in human-fire interactions in the Alaskan boreal forest. Frontiers
in Ecology and the Environment 1(5): 255-261.
EDUCATION
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
PhD, Integrated Graduate Education and Research Training Program in Regional Resilience and
Adaptation; Department of Biology and Wildlife; 2006
Co-advisors: Dr. F. Stuart Chapin III, Professor of Ecology, American Academy of Arts and
Sciences, National Academy of Sciences
Dr. A. David McGuire, Professor of Ecology
Dissertation: “Carbon Sequestration in Alaska's Boreal Forest: planning for resilience in a
changing landscape”
Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven CT
Master of Environmental Studies, Conservation Biology; 1999
Harvard University, Cambridge MA
BA, Biological Anthropology, magna cum laude; 1994
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
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Committee Member, Corrie Knapp (PhD), 2010-present; Senior Thesis Advisor, Ellen Hatch,
2009-2010
Instructor, School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences, UAF, Natural Resources
Measurement and Inventory, 2007-2009
Teaching Assistant, Biology and Wildlife Department, UAF, Population Ecology; 2004
Teaching Assistant, Biology and Wildlife Department, UAF, Evolution; 2003
Teaching Assistant – Writing Intensive, Biology Department, Yale University, Introduction to
Environmental Studies; 1999
Teaching Assistant, Biology Department, Yale University, Global Problems of Population
Growth; 1998