Urbanization and Nuclear Power:
Fuel for Thought
Question #1: What's the global population?
Answer:
As of mid-February 2014, the estimate was 7.2 billion.
EXTRACT AND EDITS FROM 6/25/14
COLUMN BY BRIAN SCHIMMOLLER
Question #2: How many cities in the world have a population greater than 10 million?
Answer:
The right answer is 22, according to the United Nations.
Question #3: How many cities will have populations greater than 10 million in 2040?
Answer:
Actually, 31 more based on current projections.
In 1954 the first nuclear
power plant started near
Moscow. It produced 5MW.
Question #4: Where will those cities be?
Answer:
Not surprisingly, predominantly in China with nine and India with eight. The numbers also show that the
world is becoming more urban. For example, whereas only about 25% of the people in China lived in urban areas in 1990,
that figure grew to 50% in 2010, and is expected to reach 75% by 2040. India and Africa are following similar tracks.
What does this have to do with nuclear power? Urbanization is closely associated with energy demand, and greater
urbanization is projected to lead to greater electrification around the world, according to ExxonMobil, The Outlook for
Energy: A View to 2040.
The link between urbanization and energy demand is tied to several factors:
• The expansion of urban infrastructure creates demand for iron, steel, cement and other goods that are energy intensive.
• Urban income levels tend to be higher than in rural areas
• Energy-intense manufacturing and other industries cluster around cities
• The number of people per household is usually lower in urban settings leading to a higher number of actual households.
Urbanization results in sizable, "lumpy" demands for energy and electricity, which fit well for nuclear power.
Urbanization tends to track to higher levels of air pollution, which should help nuclear power as well since it's a carbonfree generation source. Developing economies like China recognize that excessive levels of pollution can impact quality of
life and the strength of its economic engine. Steps to reduce adverse environmental impacts – through tighter controls on
coal-fired generation and closing of smaller coal-fired plants – indirectly support nuclear growth.
Urbanization expands awareness of and interest in the trappings of a middle-class lifestyle, many of which are tied to
electricity, including larger homes, air conditioning, appliances, and electronics. Beyond China and India, ExxonMobil
sees big gains in 10 key growth countries: Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Nigeria, Thailand, Egypt,
Mexico and Turkey. By 2040, these countries will have energy demand approaching the level of China. Several of these
countries already have operating nuclear plants and several others are evaluating commercial nuclear power programs.
In the U.S. and other "mature" economies, urbanization has played itself out. Birth rates – which are one of the leading
factors driving urbanization – are relatively low in these countries, so the lumpy slugs of electricity demand are likely all in
the past…absent a tectonic shift in electrification, such as what might accompany a system-wide move to electric
vehicles, or a global commitment to carbon-free generation sources. That doesn't mean that nuclear power construction is
finished in advanced economies. It just means that the construction of 20 or 30 nuclear plants at one time, like what we're
seeing in China, will be limited to places like China and India.
Question #5: How many people across the globe have no access to electricity?
Answer:
A whopping 1.3 billion. That‘s a lot of power plants -- nuclear or otherwise!
http://www.power-eng.com/articles/npi/print/volume-7/issue-3/departments/fuel-for-thought/urbanization-and-nuclear-power.html