Online Appendix for:
The Foreign Policy Consequences of Trade:
China’s Commercial Relations with Africa and Latin America, 1992-2006
Journal of Politics
Gustavo A. Flores-Macías and Sarah E. Kreps
4 September 2012
Table of Contents
Appendix A: UNGA Country-Specific Human Rights Resolutions, China’s Vote,
and Target Country, 1992-2006
Appendix B: List of Variables, Definitions, and Sources
Appendix C: Summary Statistics
Appendix D: Countries (observations) included in the study
Appendix E: OLS and 2SLS Estimation with all UNGA Votes as the Dependent Variable
1
2-3
4-5
6
7-8
9-12
Appendix A: UNGA Country-Specific Human Rights Resolutions, China’s Vote, and Target
Country, 1992-2006
Date
12/6/92
12/6/92
12/6/92
12/6/92
12/2/93
12/2/93
12/2/93
12/2/93
12/6/94
Resolution
R/47/139
R/47/142
R/47/145
R/47/146
R/48/142
R/48/144
R/48/145
R/48/147
R/49/196
China Vote
Against
Against
Abstain
Against
Against
Abstain
Against
Against
Abstain
12/6/94
12/6/94
12/6/94
12/6/94
12/6/94
12/6/95
12/6/95
12/6/95
12/6/95
R/49/198
R/49/200
R/49/202
R/49/203
R/49/204
R/50/188
R/50/190
R/50/191
R/50/193
Against
Against
Against
Abstain
Abstain
Against
Abstain
Abstain
Abstain
12/6/95
12/6/95
12/6/95
12/5/96
12/5/96
12/5/96
12/5/96
12/5/96
12/5/96
12/6/97
12/6/97
12/6/97
12/6/97
12/6/97
12/6/97
12/6/97
R/50/197
R/50/198
R/50/199
R/51/106
R/51/107
R/51/109
R/51/111
R/51/112
R/51/113
R/52/139
R/52/140
R/52/141
R/52/142
R/52/143
R/52/144
R/52/147
Against
Against
Against
Abstain
Against
Against
Abstain
Against
Against
Abstain
Against
Abstain
Against
Against
Against
Abstain
12/4/98
12/4/98
12/4/98
R/53/157
R/53/158
R/53/163
Abstain
Against
Abstain
12/4/98
12/6/99
12/6/99
12/6/99
12/6/99
R/53/164
R/54/177
R/54/178
R/54/179
R/54/182
Abstain
Against
Abstain
Against
Against
Target Country
Cuba
Sudan
Iraq
Islamic Republic of Iran
Cuba
Iraq
Islamic Republic of Iran
Sudan
Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of
Croatia and Yugoslavia
Sudan
Cuba
Islamic Republic of Iran
Iraq
Kosovo
Islamic Republic of Iran
Kosovo
Iraq
Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of
Croatia and Yugoslavia
Sudan
Cuba
Nigeria
Iraq
Islamic Republic of Iran
Nigeria
Kosovo
Sudan
Cuba
Kosovo
Sudan
Iraq
Islamic Republic of Iran
Cuba
Nigeria
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and the Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro)
Iraq
Islamic Republic of Iran
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic of Croatia, Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro)
Kosovo
Islamic Republic of Iran
Iraq
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Sudan
2
12/6/99
12/6/99
R/54/183
R/54/184
Abstain
Abstain
12/3/00
12/3/00
12/3/00
12/3/00
12/5/01
12/5/01
12/5/01
12/5/01
12/5/02
12/5/02
12/5/02
12/22/03
12/22/03
12/22/03
12/20/04
12/20/04
12/20/04
12/16/05
12/16/05
12/16/05
12/16/05
12/19/06
12/19/06
12/19/06
12/19/06
R/55/114
R/55/115
R/55/116
R/55/117
R/56/171
R/56/173
R/56/174
R/56/175
R/57/230
R/57/232
R/57/233
R/58/196
R/58/195
R/58/194
R/59/207
R/59/206
R/59/205
R/60/174
R/60/173
R/60/172
R/60/171
R/61/154
R/61/176
R/61/175
R/61/174
Against
Abstain
Against
Abstain
Against
Abstain
Abstain
Against
Against
Abstain
Abstain
Abstain
Against
Against
Against
Against
Against
Against
Against
Against
Against
In Favor
Against
Against
Against
Kosovo
Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of Croatia and
the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and
Montenegro)
Islamic Republic of Iran
Iraq
Sudan
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Islamic Republic of Iran
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Iraq
Sudan
Sudan
Iraq
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Islamic Republic of Iran
Turkmenistan
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Turkmenistan
Islamic Republic of Iran
Uzbekistan
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
Turkmenistan
Islamic Republic of Iran
Israel
Islamic Republic of Iran
Belarus
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
3
Appendix B: List of Variables, Definitions, and Sources
Variable
Definition
Source
HR-UNGA
Vote
Measure of affinity regarding UNGA country-specific
human rights votes. The measure that takes on the value of 1
if the country voted in agreement with China; a value of 0 if
the country voted in disagreement with China; and a value
of 0.5 if one country voted in favor or against but the other
abstained.
United Nations
General
Assembly
Voting Data
(Voeten and
Merdzanovic
2009)
Trade Flows
Total value (in current US billions of dollars) of bilateral
trade with China. Total Trade = Imports ijt + Imports jit
US Trade
Total value (in current US billions of dollars) of bilateral
trade with the United States. Total Trade = Imports ijt +
Imports jit
US Trade
Salience
Ratio of bilateral trade (between the US and Country i) and
Country i’s Total GDP
Trade Salience it = (Imports ijt + Imports jit) / GDP it
National
Capability
Composite indicator of national capability, based on total
population, urban population, iron and steel production,
energy consumption, military personnel, and military
expenditure. The index is calculated by summing all
observations on each of the six components for a given year,
converting each state’s absolute component to a share of the
international system, and then averaging across components.
COW Dyadic
Trade Data
(Barbieri,
Keshk, and
Pollins 2008)
COW Dyadic
Trade Data
(Barbieri,
Keshk, and
Pollins 2008)
COW Dyadic
Trade Data and
World Bank
WDI
COW National
Material
Capabilities
Dataset
(Correlates of
War 2005)
Human Rights
Measure of country i’s human rights practices ranging from
1 to 5, where 1 indicates the highest respect for human
rights and 5 the lowest. The index is based on yearly
country reports of Amnesty International and the U.S. State
Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices.
Post-2003
Indicator variable accounting for whether the countryspecific human rights vote was taken before or after the start
of the 2003 Iraq War. It takes the value of 1 between 20042006 and 0 otherwise.
Energy
Production
Country i’s production of forms of primary energy—
petroleum (crude oil, natural gas liquids, and oil from nonconventional sources), natural gas, solid fuels (coal, lignite,
and other derived fuels), coal, lignite (and other derived
fuels), and combustible renewable and waste—and primary
electricity, all converted into oil equivalents (kt of oil
equivalent).
4
Political Terror
Scale (PTS)
(Gibney,
Cornett, and
Wood 2011)
World Bank
WDI (2011)
Appendix C: Summary Statistics
Variable
HR-UNGA Vote
Obs
978
Mean
0.556
SD
0.273
Min
0
Max
1
Trade Flow
1286
460
1,836
0
30,475
Trade Salience
1208
2.67
6.462
0
96.66
National
Capability
1289
0.002
0.003
0.000002
0.027
US Aid
1213
1.097
3.09
0
45.54
US Trade
1289
4,354
24,237
0
343,936
US Trade
Salience
1215
12.98
15.14
0
110.54
Regime
952
0.478
0.499
0
1
Human Rights
1229
2.722
1.099
1
5
Post-2003
1292
0.202
0.402
0
1
734
33,327
57,986
190
259,758
Instrument
Energy
production
5
Appendix D: Countries (observations) included in the study
Table D1: OLS Models
Africa
Algeria (12)
Benin (15)
Botswana (15)
Burkina Faso (14)
Burundi (13)
Cameroon (15)
Central African Republic (5)
Chad (11)
Comoros (7)
Congo (13)
Dem. Republic of Congo (12)
Egypt (15)
Equatorial Guinea (7)
Gabon (11)
Gambia (11)
Ghana (15)
Guinea (15)
Ivory Coast (15)
Kenya (15)
Lesotho (11)
Liberia (5)
Libya (3)
Madagascar (11)
Malawi (15)
Mali (15)
Mauritania (15)
Mauritius (14)
Morocco (15)
Niger (11)
Nigeria (15)
Rwanda (14)
Senegal (15)
Sierra Leone (14)
South Africa (13)
Sudan (15)
Swaziland (12)
Tanzania (15)
Togo (15)
Tunisia (12)
Uganda (15)
Zambia (14)
Latin America
Argentina (15)
Bolivia (15)
Brazil (15)
Chile (15)
Colombia (15)
Costa Rica (15)
Dominican Republic (11)
Ecuador (15)
El Salvador (15)
Guatemala (15)
Guyana (15)
Haiti (11)
Honduras (15)
Jamaica (15)
Mexico (15)
Nicaragua (15)
Panama (15)
Paraguay (15)
Peru (15)
Trinidad and Tobago (15)
Uruguay (15)
Venezuela (15)
6
Table D2: 2SLS Models
Africa
Algeria (12)
Benin (15)
Botswana (15)
Burkina Faso (0)
Burundi (0)
Cameroon (15)
Central African Republic (0)
Chad (0)
Comoros (0)
Congo (13)
Dem. Republic of Congo (12)
Egypt (15)
Equatorial Guinea (0)
Gabon (11)
Gambia (0)
Ghana (15)
Guinea (0)
Ivory Coast (15)
Kenya (15)
Lesotho (0)
Liberia (0)
Libya (3)
Madagascar (0)
Malawi (0)
Mali (0)
Mauritania (0)
Mauritius (0)
Morocco (15)
Niger (0)
Nigeria (15)
Rwanda (0)
Senegal (15)
Sierra Leone (0)
South Africa (13)
Sudan (15)
Swaziland (0)
Tanzania (15)
Togo (15)
Tunisia (12)
Uganda (0)
Zambia (14)
Latin America
Argentina (15)
Bolivia (15)
Brazil (15)
Chile (15)
Colombia (15)
Costa Rica (15)
Dominican Republic (11)
Ecuador (15)
El Salvador (15)
Guatemala (15)
Guyana (0)
Haiti (11)
Honduras (15)
Jamaica (15)
Mexico (15)
Nicaragua (15)
Panama (15)
Paraguay (15)
Peru (15)
Trinidad and Tobago (15)
Uruguay (15)
Venezuela (15)
NB: Countries lost for the 2SLS models due to missing data: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Equatorial
Guinea, Gambia, Guinea, Guyana, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Niger, Rwanda,
Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Uganda.
7
Appendix E: OLS and 2SLS Estimation with all UNGA Votes as the Dep. Variable
Table E.1
OLS Estimation of the Effect of Trade Flows and Trade Salience on Foreign Policy Convergence (All UNGA
Votes), 1992-2006
Trade
(1)
Trade Flows
Lagged
(t-1)
Effect of
Trade
(2)
Lagged
(t-1) Effect
of All
Predictors
(3)
0.018*
(0.004)
0.019*
(0.004)
Trade
Salience
(4)
Trade Salience
0.005
(0.05)
0.01
(0.053)
-0.003
(0.043)
National
Capability, t-1
-0.005
(0.005)
0.006
(0.045)
-0.005
(0.006)
-0.007
(0.006)
-0.004
(0.009)
-0.009
(0.007)
-0.008
(0.009)
0.000
(0.001)
US Trade
Salience, t-1
0.000
(0.001)
0.026
(0.017)
0.026
(0.017)
Regime t-1
Fixed Effects
0.025
(0.016)
-0.006
(0.007)
0.033*
(0.012)
Yes
0.015
(0.013)
-0.006
(0.007)
0.036*
(0.011)
Yes
0.000
(0.001)
0.022
(0.015)
0.023
(0.015)
Human Rights t-1
Post-2003
-0.003
(0.006)
-0.004
(0.007)
US Trade Salience
Human Rights
0.001
(0.047)
-0.003
(0.003)
US Trade, t-1
Regime
0.003
(0.002)
-0.009
(0.043)
US Aid/GDP t-1
US Trade
0.003
(0.002)
0.003*
(0.001)
Trade Salience, t-1
US Aid/GDP
Lagged
(t-1) Effect
of All
Predictors
(6)
0.017*
(0.003)
Trade Flows, t-1
National
Capability
Lagged
(t-1) Effect
of Trade
Salience
(5)
-0.007
(0.007)
0.000
(0.007)
0.031*
(0.011)
Yes
0.054*
(0.011)
Yes
8
-0.006
(0.007)
0.056*
(0.012)
Yes
-0.001
(0.007)
0.052*
(0.013)
Yes
p-values
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.010
0.000
0.001
R2
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.12
N
875
876
873
875
876
875
Note: Dependent variable is foreign policy similarity in all UNGA votes as measured by Signorino and Ritter’s Sscore (1999). All significance tests are two-tailed: * indicates p < 0.05. All models include fixed effects. All values
are rounded to the third decimal. Huber-White robust standard errors reported in parentheses. Coefficients are likely
biased due to endogeneity. For unbiased 2SLS estimates see Table E.2
9
Table E.2
Two Stage Least Square Estimation of the Effect of Trade Flows and Trade Salience on Foreign Policy
Convergence (All UNGA Votes), 1992-2006
Trade
Lagged
Lagged
Trade
Lagged
Lagged
(t-1) Effect
(t-1) Effect All
Salience
(t-1) Effect
(t-1) Effect
of Trade
Predictors
of Trade
All
(9)
Salience
Predictors
(7)
(8)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Trade Flows
0.042*
(0.01)
Trade Flows, t-1
0.041*
0.046*
(0.01)
(0.014)
Trade Salience
0.045*
(0.022)
Trade Salience, t-1
National
Capability
0.04*
(0.013)
-0.113*
(0.051)
-0.123*
(0.05)
National
Capability, t-1
US Aid/GDP
0.007
(0.009)
0.013
(0.009)
-0.122*
(0.062)
0.001
(0.01)
-0.001
(0.005)
-0.03*
(0.012)
-0.025*
(0.008)
-0.036*
(0.012)
US Trade Salience
-0.003
(0.003)
US Trade
Salience, t-1
-0.001
(0.001)
0.033
(0.019)
0.036*
(0.018)
Regime, t-1
Human Rights
FE
p-values
LM χ2 (p-value)
F values
R2
N
0.014
(0.021)
0.004
(0.007)
0.005
(0.007)
-0.004
(0.007)
Yes
0.000
0.000
56.87
0.11
602
-0.001
(0.018)
Yes
0.000
0.000
71.09
0.10
602
0.005
(0.023)
0.016
(0.022)
0.006
(0.008)
-0.01
(0.02)
Yes
0.000
0.000
53.70
0.10
600
10
-0.001
(0.001)
0.02
(0.019)
0.024
(0.022)
Human Rights t-1
Post-2003
0.000
(0.008)
-0.006
(0.007)
US Trade, t-1
Regime
-0.114*
(0.058)
-0.144*
(0.055)
US Aid/GDP, t-1
US Trade
-0.039
(0.127)
0.042*
(0.014)
-0.107
(0.093)
Yes
0.010
0.013
8.86
0.10
602
0.024
(0.017)
-0.037
(0.037)
Yes
0.000
0.012
14.96
0.10
602
0.015
(0.015)
0.048
(0.04)
Yes
0.000
0.000
14.34
0.09
600
Note: Dependent variable is foreign policy similarity in all UNGA votes as measured by Signorino and Ritter’s Sscore (1999). All significance tests are two-tailed: * indicates p < 0.05. All models include fixed effects. All values
are rounded to the third decimal. Huber-White robust standard errors reported in parentheses.
11