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Chapter 1 – Disaster Risks in Asia-Pacific TJ Final Edit 8 Sept
Increasing exposure of populations and economic assets of countries in Asia-Pacific is
driving the increase in disaster risks of the region. In addition to large-scale disasters, the
impacts of smaller but equally destructive disasters also are increasing. The negative
consequences of development, including unplanned urban growth and a combination of
concentrated and marginalized populations are primary drivers of increasing disaster
exposure. Rapid growth, dense settlements and increasingly complex socio-economic
infrastructure create the additional potential for more complex risks to emerge from the
region. The far-reaching implications and complex nature of these disasters will demand an
equally sophisticated and multi-dimensional set of capacities to be developed, supported and
put in place to reduce the impacts of future disasters on people and their communities.
1. Introduction
In 2011, major disaster events such as the Great East Japan Earthquake and following
tsunami and the severe floods in Thailand provided stark reminders of the massive
concentration of disaster risks that are affecting human well-being and future development.
Overwhelming global economic losses of USD 365 billion were reported during just this one
year. The increasing trends in exposure and losses displayed by these and other disaster
events demand a greater understanding of the complex nature and interaction of hazards,
exposure and risks.
Such an understanding of disaster risks, related concepts and terms used in disaster risk
reduction has been evolving over the past 50 years. Disaster risk which can be most simply
explained as the function of a specific hazard, physical exposure and human vulnerability has
been widely accepted among the professionals who work with the subject, even as the
concepts remain a constant challenge for public authorities to anticipate and manage their
possible consequences. Disaster risk is more commonly expressed as the probability of loss
of life and the destruction of property and productive assets at a specific time.
Exposure refers to the location of people or economic and social assets in hazard-prone areas
or more broadly by referring to general “elements at risk”. The term vulnerability refers to the
characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to
suffer damages and losses from a hazard. The definitions of these terms as they are used in
this report are primarily adapted from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (UNISDR) standard set of terminologies1, as they are widely accepted by disaster
risk reduction practitioners globally. These terms are explained more fully in Annex 1.1.
Risk is always dynamic and thus requires to be reviewed and assessed periodically. Hazards,
elements at risk and their related vulnerability also are subject to change. Population densities
change, most often increasing in places of greater exposure. The region’s economic progress,
related demographic change, changing relative concentrations of economic assets and
infrastructure in vulnerable areas along coasts and floodways, environmental degradation and
1
UNISDR, 2009. Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland:
http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology
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resource intensive growth patterns have also resulted in increasing risk of exposure to climate
change.
On the other hand, new infrastructure is built and service systems become more sophisticated,
thus increasing the number and value of assets. The organization of societies is evolving
rapidly throughout Asia and the Pacific with improved or advanced technologies.
While these developments may decrease people’s vulnerability, they can also expose
potentially dangerous conditions which lead to secondary hazards. The Fukushima nuclear
accident following the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 is only one
example of how disasters can spawn multiple and devastating consequences in modern
societies.
High levels of vulnerability and exposure are often the outcome of poorly conceived
development planning or practices. Environmental mismanagement, poorly considered
consequences of demographic change, unplanned and rapid urbanization are examples of
development practices that illustrate failed governance and can worsen livelihood options.
These misplaced actions can result in settlements in hazard-prone areas, the construction of
unsafe dwellings, poorly served slums and scattered or outlying districts which only
perpetuate poverty conditions and the lack of awareness about risks. For these reasons , and
the possible future changes in disaster risk due to climate change and the dynamic
consequences of growth, risk needs to be evaluated on a continuous basis.
The previous Asia Pacific Disaster Report 20102 reviewed the linkages between increasing
disaster risk and climate change. It suggested that a direct contribution of climate change to
disaster risk was difficult to quantify. However, given the research and concerns expressed
globally, along with the considerable potential impact of climate change, the report also
indicated that it could not be ignored.
IPCC AR4 concludes that the future will bring likely (> 66 per cent) to virtually certain (> 99
per cent) probability of further changes to the global climate, including the occurrence of
increased warm spells, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, increased area affected by
droughts and tropical cyclone activity, among other possible phenomenon (IPCC 2007)3.
The more recent Special Report of the IPCC on disaster risk and climate adaptation 4 ties
climate action to the management of disaster risk, pointing to increased disaster risk as more
vulnerable people and assets are exposed to weather extremes, even without climate change.
It concludes that climate extremes will play an increasingly significant role in disaster
impacts and highlights the need to improve existing risk management measures.
As recognized by “The Future We Want”, the outcome document of the United Nations
Conference on Sustainable Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June 2012,
2
APDR 2010 -cite full name and reference
Reference needed from Hitomi/Kelly
4
IPCC (2012). Summary for Policymakers: In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.I. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D.
Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M.Tignor and P.M. Midgley (eds.) A Special Report of
Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19.
3
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(commonly referred to as “Rio+20”) there is an urgent need to address disaster risk reduction
and the building of resilience to disasters in the context of sustainable development and
poverty eradication 5 . In this regard there is a need to view disaster risk reduction in the
context of broader development strategies.
To begin to unravel the intricacy of multiple interrelated risks and with an intention to
increase the understanding of risk, this chapter explores the regional trends of mortality and
economic losses. It focuses on the risk of loss and damages particularly associated with lowseverity and high-frequency disasters, that are also sometimes referred to as “extensive”
disasters. Hydro-meteorological events such as floods, tropical cyclones, other storms and
landslides triggered by rain or floods are featured in the discussion because of their
significance in the region. The principal cause for human suffering in the Asia-Pacific region
has been related to hydro-meteorological disasters and it is evident that the number of disaster
events triggered by hydro-meteorological hazards is greater than other types of disaster
classification. Nevertheless, one should also remain attentive to the impacts which
geophysical and climatological hazards also have throughout the region. The chapter also
presents the trends of increasing exposure to disaster risks and the rising economic losses
associated with both severe, large scale “intensive” disasters as well as the more frequent,
lower consequence smaller disasters. However, regardless of their specific characterizations,
both types of disasters reflect a close relationship between governance and prevailing risks,
and the resulting trends of physical and economic exposure.
1.1.
The Thailand floods of 2011: the worst disaster in Thailand in half a century
The 2001 Thailand floods, which are the costliest disaster of 2011 after the Great East
Japan Earthquake highlights that the major portion of the damage and losses from the
floods were borne by the private sector. In particular, the most affected economic sector
was manufacturing which accounts for about 38.5 per cent of Thailand’s GDP and is
one of the primary sources of Thailand’s exports. This calls for a rethinking by the private
sector about business continuity planning and implementation.
The preceding conceptual concerns can be vividly conveyed by considering the consequences
in Thailand of the fourth severe tropical storm of the 2011 Pacific typhoon season. The
Typhoon Nok Ten made three landfalls across the South-East Asia subregion between 24-31
July 2012 wreaking havoc throughout the area. While damage from the resulting floods was
particularly severe in Thailand, neighboring countries also were affected. Continuous heavy
rainfall associated with the weather system affected 1.2 million people in Cambodia, causing
250 fatalities and estimated losses of USD 161 million. The Lao People’s Democratic
Republic suffered an estimated economic loss of USD 174 million, including damage to
140,000 houses. Viet Nam lost 175,000 homes and 99,00 hectares of agricultural land to the
floodwaters, with an estimated loss of USD 135 million.
However, combined with the heavy monsoon rainfall which was further intensified by La
Nina cyclical climatic effects, extreme flooding slowly spread through the provinces of
northern and north-eastern parts of Thailand before reaching the central provinces in the
Chao Phraya River basin. By the end of October, the floods had reached Bangkok. Even
5
The Future We Want Rio+20 outcome document - to be referenced correctly. - Hitomi/ Kelly
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though the urban center of Bangkok was protected by dykes, with the notable and eventually
very costly exposure of the northern suburbs (figure I.1), the city had weeks to prepare for the
floods. Despite these partial and inadequate precautions, many parts of the city and its
environs were inundated.
Figure I.1
Satellite images of the Chao Phraya River in Ayutthaya Province on 11 July 2011 (left),
and on 23 October 2011 (right)
Source: NASA Satellite Images
In Thailand, the Chao Phraya River and its tributaries comprise 162,800 km2 (62,850 miles2),
approximately one third of the country’s entire landmass. Prior to this event, the worst
Thailand floods in recent history were recorded in 1831, 1942, 1983, 1995, 1996, 2002, and
2006.
The severe floods which struck Thailand were assessed as the worst disaster in Thailand in
half a century as they flooded 66 of the country’s 77 provinces. They affected 13.6 million
people; more than 884 people were killed and millions of residents were either left homeless
or displaced across the country.
It became the fourth costliest disaster in the world, exceeded only by the 2011 Great East
Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake and Hurricane Katrina in
2005 in the United States.
1.1.1 The economic losses and consequences of the Thailand floods
The total damage and losses from the 2011 floods in Thailand amounted to THB 1.43 trillion
(USD 46.5 billion), with losses accounting for 56 per cent of the total. The manufacturing
sector bore roughly 70 per cent of the total damage and losses due to the flooding of six
industrial estates in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani from mid-October to November 2011.
Overall, approximately 90 per cent of the damage and losses from the floods were borne by
the private sector. The damage to physical assets amounted to THB 630.3 billion (USD 21
billion), with additional losses in associated economic activities amounting to about THB 795
billion (USD 26.5 billion). These loss estimates are based on losses projected over the three
year period of 2011–2013.
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The floods severely affected the private sector, causing particular capital and secondary
losses to manufacturing companies. Manufacturing makes up about 38.5 per cent of
Thailand’s GDP and is one of the main contributors of Thailand’s exports. The majority of
manufacturers (amounting to around 70 per cent GDP) were located in the five flood-affected
provinces of Bangkok, Ayutthaya, Nakhon Sawan, Pathum Thani, and Samut Sakhon.
Tourism, housing and the financial sectors also were heavily affected. Although there was
some damage to tourism infrastructure, the greatest impact on tourism was from lost revenue
from accommodation, transportation, shopping, food and beverages, entertainment and
sightseeing services. In the housing sector, some 1.9 million houses were affected with about
19,000 homes destroyed, but the greatest damage was to personal household goods. Damage
in the housing sector was the second largest, after manufacturing, with comparable losses as a
proportion of damage. Re-insurance company like Swiss Re also notes that out of the total
USD 46.5 billon damage and losses, only 12 billion was insured.6
1.2.
Understanding human and economic losses from disasters in Asia and the Pacific
The Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than 74 per cent of the global human loss in
multiple hazardous events from 1970 to 2011. Economic losses are growing and 2011 was a
record year for the region in terms of direct and indirect economic losses. Although much of
these losses resulted from large-scale intensive disasters, the region is equally prone to
smaller scale disasters that accumulate risks, and are equally destructive over an extended
time period.
This section provides a summarized view of the state of human and economic losses in the
Asia- Pacific region, from past disasters. This region accounts for more than 74 per cent of
human losses globally. Figure I.2 highlights the subregional distribution of human losses due
to disasters from 1970 to 2011 based on reported deaths in the international disaster database,
EM-DAT 7 . The graph illustrates that the maximum number of people killed in multiple
hazardous events is in the South and South-West Asia subregion which accounts for almost
half of the people killed in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the Global Assessment Report
2011 suggests that deaths due to disasters is declining globally, the concentration of human
losses has been enormous in the region.
6
Swiss Re (Reference ?)
7
EM-DAT is the Emergency Database developed and managed by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
(CRED). EM-DAT contains essential core data on the occurrence and effects of over 18,000 mass disasters in the world
from 1900 to present. The database is compiled from various sources, including UN agencies, non-governmental
organizations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies.
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Figure I.2
Subregional distribution of human losses from disasters
Source: UNISDR from EM-DAT data (Sourced on 28 August 2012)
Note: The hazards considered in this analysis are earthquake s(seismic activity), temperature
extremes, floods, wet and dry mass movements, storms, volcanoes and wildfire.
Almost 80 per cent of global economic losses in disasters were reported in the Asia-Pacific
region during 2011. Total global economic losses as reported by the Centre for Research on
the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) reached USD 366.1 billion in 2011, of which a
staggering USD 294 billion in losses was reported in the Asia-Pacific region alone. Almost
90 per cent of the Asia-Pacific losses were attributed to the two major disasters in Japan (Box
1) and Thailand.
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Box 1.1 The Great East Japan Earthquake, 2011
Photo credit: Mohri UN-CECAR (Flickr)
One of the most devastating disasters to occur in the modern era was the Great East Japan
Earthquake in 2011. It was the biggest earthquake to strike Japan since official records
have been maintained from the early 1900s. The 9.0 magnitude earthquake was followed
by a massive tsunami that resulted in the costliest disaster of the modern historical era.
Almost 16,000 people were killed in the country's north-eastern coastal communities.
This double disaster, which in turn triggered a third crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant,
leaves people’s lives in a state of turmoil more than a year after the disaster. Official
figures indicate that almost 300,000 buildings were destroyed (Source: National Police
Agency of Japan) with an additional one million more damaged either by the earthquake,
tsunami or resulting fires. Almost 4,000 roads, 78 bridges and 29 railways also were
either damaged or destroyed. The total estimated loss only for these combined disasters
was reported as USD 210 billion.
In the decade from 2000-2009 the total reported losses were USD 366 billion, whereas the
economic losses reported only in 2011 had grown to USD 294 billion. That is equivalent to
fully 80 per cent of the losses reported in the preceding decade. The earthquakes that
occurred in Japan, New Zealand, and Turkey in 2011, as well as the unprecedented floods in
Australia and Thailand resulted in massive destruction and the loss of thousands of people’s
lives. Losses reported in 2011 for South-East Asia alone almost doubled from the preceding
decade
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Figure I.3
Economic losses from Asian-Pacific disasters, 2000-2009 and 2011, by subregions
Source – UNISDR from EM-DAT data (sourced 22 May 2012)
Economic losses
2000-09 (billion USD)
280.1
28.3
44.9
2.1
11.6
Subregions
East and North-East Asia
South-East Asia
South and South-West Asia
North and Central Asia
Pacific
Asia and Pacific
Global
Economic losses
2011 (billion USD)
227.0
41.3
6.9
0.1
19.6
366.9
294.8
896.2
366.1
Table1.1
Economic losses from Asian Pacific disasters 2000-2009 and 2011
Source – UNISDR from EM-DAT data (sourced 22 May 2012)
Globally, 2011 has been the most costly year for loses from disasters. Table 1.2 shows the top
10 disasters by economic damages.
Disaster events, 2011
Countries and territories
Damages
(billion USD)
Earthquake/Tsunami, March
Japan
Flood, August-December
Thailand
40.0
Earthquake, February
New Zealand
15.0
Storm, May
United States
14.0
Storm, April
United States
11.0
Drought, January-December
United States
8.0
210.0
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Hurricane Irene, August-September
7.9
Flood, June
United States, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Dominican
Republic, Haiti, Canada
China
6.4
Flood, April-May
United States
4.6
Flood, September
China
4.3
Table 1.2
Top 10 natural disasters by economic damage
Source: EM-DAT data, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net - Université
Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Created on 22 July 2012. Data version: v12.07
Table 1.3 clearly indicates that the major losses in the region are predominantly due to
earthquakes and tsunamis, which are geophysical hazards. Earthquakes and tsunamis are not
only the most destructive disasters in the region, but they also occur frequently. Table 1.4
illustrates that seven out of the top 10 earthquake disasters from 1900-2012 have occurred in
the Asia-Pacific region.
Country, Disaster event
Japan, Tsunami
Japan, Earthquake
China, Earthquake
United States, Earthquake
Chile, Earthquake
Japan, Earthquake
Italy, Earthquake
Turkey, Earthquake
New Zealand, Earthquake
Date
11 March 2011
17 January 1995
12 May 2008
17 January 1994
27 February 2010
23 October 2004
23 May1980
17 August 1999
22 February 2011
Taiwan Province of China, Earthquake
21 September 1999
Damage (billion USD)
210
100
85
30
30
28
20
20
15
14.1
Table 1.3
Ten most important earthquake/seismic activity disasters, 1900 - 2012
Note: sorted by economic damage costs at the country level.
Source: EM-DAT, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique
de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Created on: 22 July 2012. - Data version: v12.07
In terms of the overall impact of the geophysical hazards in the region, table 1.4 illustrates the
gravity of both mortality and economic losses in comparison to the rest of the world. The
total reported losses due to earthquakes and tsunamis in the Asia-and Oceania region is 30
per cent higher than the rest of the world.
Region
Asia
Disaster
event
No. of
events
Earthquake
Tsunami
617
33
Killed
1 559 045
261 915
Total affected
127 967 949
2 806 269
Damage
(billion
USD)
312.1
222.6
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Oceania
Earthquake
Tsunami
Sub-Total
Asia and Oceania
Total of all other regions
Africa, Americas, Europe
41
10
610
2793
691 015
20 843
0.0
0.2
701
1 824 363
131 486 076
534.9
504
738 936
39 566 335
175.5
Table 1.4
Earthquakes/seismic activity in Asia and Oceania region compared to other global regions, 1900
- 2012.
Source: UNISDR from EM-DAT data, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Created on 22 July 2012. Data version: v12.07.
Considering the impacts which seismic events have in Asia-Pacific, the global research
community concerned is proceeding to attempt the modelling of earthquake risks in the
region through the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative. 8 Remarkable efforts from
scientists and practitioners from all over the world are being mobilized for this initiative and
hopefully will soon be able to provide the world with more understanding of earthquake
hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities.
1.2.1 Rising Economic Losses
Losses have increased by 16 times, while GDP per capita grew by 13 times since 1970. This
indicates that wealth is being lost faster through disasters than it is being generated by
growth and development. The greater proportion of losses are in high and upper-middle
income countries which demonstrates that economic development alone has been unable to
reduce risks, and that it may actually increase them.
Based on the reported losses due to all types of disasters in the EM-DAT database, the
modeled economic exposure of Asia-Pacific subregions to hydro-meteorological hazards
indicates that estimated economic losses associated with disasters are growing every year
with increasing exposure (figure I.4). Losses in the region have grown by more than 16 times
since 1970, while the GDP per capita has increased by 13 times. Losses in high and uppermiddle income countries9 are higher compared to lower-middle and low income countries.
This trend in losses indicates that a larger proportion of the growing economies remain at risk
despite the availability of more capital assets. This confirms that economic growth alone has
failed to reduce economic losses due to disasters (figure I.5).
East and North-East Asian countries (China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Japan,
Mongolia and Republic of Korea,) account for the greatest amount of losses in the AsiaPacific region. Losses incurred by China alone during the last 40 years are far more than the
8
The GEM Foundation is a public-private partnership that supports a collaborative effort aimed at developing and deploying
tools and resources for earthquake risk assessment worldwide. Hundreds of organizations and individual experts,
professionals and practitioners are working together on uniform global databases, methodologies, tools and open-source
software for this purpose. http://www.globalquakemodel.org/
9
http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups
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losses of all countries in South-East Asia, South and South-West Asia, North and Central
Asia and the Pacific combined.
Figure I.4
Economic losses due to disasters in Asia and Pacific (1970-2009)
Million USD (normalised using 2005 USD value)
Source: UNISDR from EM-DA data, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Created on 22 May 2012. Data version: v12.07
250
200
150
Low - Income
Lower Middle Income
Upper-Middle Income
100
High-Income
50
0
1980-89
1990-99
2000-09
Figure I.5
Economic losses due to disasters in Asia and Pacific by income classification of countries (19702009)
Source: UNISDR from EM-DA data, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em-dat.net Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Created on 22 May 2012. Data version: v12.07
Figure I.6 shows the relation between the percentage change in human exposure and in GDP
from 1980-2010 for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific. It is evident that in these two
subregions exposure has been increasing to a greater extent; while GDP has increased by
more than 6 times since 1980 in South Asia, exposure has increased 5 times, mirroring the
growth in economic development.
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Percentage Change in
Exposure
Percentage Change in
Exposure
Figure I.6
Changes in GDP and the exposure of population to disasters (1980-2010) for South Asia (left)
and East Asia and Pacific (right).
Source: GDP data from World Bank and human exposure (physical) from UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global
Risk Data Platform
These analyses show that the region has experienced a greater economic growth, however at
the same time the economic losses and human exposure to all types of hazards also have been
increasing. Based on this observation, one can argue that the economic growth in the region
is not resulting in a reduction of disaster losses or human exposure.
1.3. Risk from hydro-meteorological hazards in the Asia-Pacific region
The most frequent hazards in the region are hydro-meteorological in nature, which also
have affected the most people. This indicates that the region is more susceptible to the
effects of climate extremes and climate variations. For example, 1.2 billion people have
been exposed to hydro-meteorological risks through 1215 events since 2000, compared to
the approximately 355 million people who were exposed to 394 climatological, biological
and geo-physical disaster events during the same period.
Although the impact of geo-physical disasters on the Asia-Pacific region is significant and
certainly should not be underestimated, the frequent occurrence of hydro-meteorological
hazards and their cumulative impacts on Asian-Pacific populations is even more worrisome.
Regardless of whether hazards are categorized as being geophysical, hydro-meteorological,
climatological or biological all of their impacts in Asia-Pacific exceed their consequences
elsewhere in the world.
The understanding of various risk factors continues to evolve as the availability of
information, data, research and technologies all advance. The Global Risk Model generated
for the UNISDR’s 2009 Global Assessment Report (GAR) (UNISDR 2009) and further
refined for the GAR 2011 (UNISDR, 2011a) 10 has made impressive progress in modeling
10
The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. A
comprehensive global risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to
identify dominant underlying risk factors. The analysis was performed for several hazards, including the hydrometeorological hazards of floods, tropical cyclones and rain-triggered landslides discussed in the present
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hydro-meteorological risks even though it remains limited in modeling geo-physical risks.
However, as hydro-meteorological hazardous events have been a major cause for human
suffering in the region, this section will focus on more detailed analysis of those hazards
Since the year 2000, significantly more people in the Asia-Pacific region have been affected
by hydro-metrological hazardous events in contrast to climatological, biological and geophysical events. According to EM-DAT data, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological risks through 1215 events during this period, compared to about 355 million
people exposed to 394 climatological, biological and geo-physical disaster events during the
same period. In the region, the number of people living in flood-prone areas has increased by
12.5 per cent between 2000 and 2010, and the number of people living in tropical cycloneprone areas has increased by 9.6 per cent 11 (sources:). The information presented in this
section will provide a regional analysis of the global risk model datasets generated for the
UNISDR’s Global Assessment Report, 2011.This exercise was mandated by the United
Nations and pursued by agencies working in development and environment domains. 12 A
more elaborate discussion of the advantages of modeling risk in comparison to the evaluation
of reported disaster losses is provided in Annex 1.2.
This section focuses on analysis of trends in mortality risk, physical exposure and economic
exposure (see definitions in Annex 1.1). The mortality trend reaffirms the global findings
from GAR 2011 that it remains highly concentrated in countries with low GDP and weak
governance. The analysis of physical exposure shows the subregional variability of as well as
indications of declining vulnerability accompanied by ever increasing exposure. Similarly the
economic exposure analysis indicates increases in exposure to varying degrees in different
regions and among various hazards. Although overall disaster exposure is the main driver of
risks in the region, efforts to reduce vulnerability might have been able to overcome growing
exposure and thus was able to reduce tropical cyclone risks specifically.
1.3.1. Distribution of potential mortality risk from hydro-meteorological hazards
Mortality risk 13 associated with major weather-related hazards is now declining globally,
including in the Asia-Pacific region, where most of the risk is concentrated. The Asia-Pacific
region accounts for 91 per cent of global human exposure to tropical cyclones, 92 per cent of
the global exposure to floods and 66 per cent global exposure to landslides calculated on a
per capita basis. Although the number of people exposed to these hazards continues to
increase, the national HFA reports 14 indicate that individual countries have become
document. The results include evaluations of the intensity of the hazards, people’s relative exposure, and the
influence of poverty and governance issues in reflecting the patterns and trends of risk as can be discerned in the
various Asia and Pacific subregions. Those subregions recognized by ESCAP are East and North-East Asia,
South-East Asia, South and South-West Asia, North and Central Asia and the Pacific
11
PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, UNEP, UNISDR (2012), (http://preview.grid.unep.ch)
The organizations concerned include UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN
13
Mortality risk reflects the probability of being killed by a future hazardous event, It has been modelled using
hazard frequency, severity, human exposure and vulnerability parameters See Peduzzi et al. (2012) for the
detailed methodology on modelling mortality risk.
12
The ‘National HFA Reports’ refers to the country reports generated through the “HFA Monitor” which is an
online tool to capture the information on progress in HFA, generated through the multi-stakeholder review
process. The primary purpose of the tool is to assist countries to monitor and review their progress and
14
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increasingly dedicated to reducing the vulnerabilities of some segments of their population
and strengthening elements of their disaster management capacities. However, the trends of
mortality risk in the region still vary greatly within subregions and with regard to specific
hazards. Also, the global trend is significantly influenced by progress made in China, where
urbanization in modern habitats, has largely reduced the population’s vulnerability toward
hydro-meteorological hazards.
The maps 1.1 through 1.5 show the distribution of mortality risk, i.e. the probability of having
peopled killed by hydro-meteorological hazards. The risk is noted in five different levels.
These levels were obtained after complex spatial modeling of three hydro-meteorological
hazards’ (tropical cyclones, floods and rain-triggered landslides) frequency and intensity,
intersected with population distribution model as well as identification of vulnerability
contextual parameters.15 In these maps, the areas of highest mortality risk correspond to areas
where high concentrations of vulnerable people are exposed to severe and frequent hazards.
This complex modelling used 1.7 terabytes of data, concerning flood, tropical cyclone and
landslide hazards, and related population exposure. The vulnerability parameters were
identified using statistical regression analysis using thousands of past events to calibrate the
vulnerability models.16
The global analysis conducted for the 2009 and 2011 Global Assessment Reports (UNISDR
2009 and 2011a) revealed that flood mortality risk is highest in rural areas with a densely
concentrated and rapidly growing population in countries with weak governance (UNISDR,
2009). Cyclone mortality risk is highest in densely populated, isolated rural areas with low
GDP per capita (UNISDR, 2009; Peduzzi et al., 2012). Landslide risk mortality is highest in
areas with low GDP per capita (UNISDR, 2009). For all weather-related hazards, countries
with low GDP and weak governance tend to have drastically higher mortality risks than
wealthier countries with stronger government practices.
challenges in implementing disaster risk reduction and recovery actions undertaken at the national level, in
accordance with the Hyogo Framework's priorities. More details are available at :
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/hfa-monitoring/
15
See UNISDR 2009, UNISDR 2011a, Peduzzi et al., 2012 for more details, and Annex 1.1 for definitions.
16
A detailed account of how this scientific study was performed for tropical cyclones is provided in Peduzzi et
al. (2012). More technical information about the production of the flood model is available in Herold et al.
(2009), and Herold and Mouton, (2011) .
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Map 1.1
Mortality risk distribution of selected hydro-meteorological hazards (tropical cyclones, floods
and rain-triggered landslides) in North and Central Asia.
Data Sources: UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, cartography UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2012
Map 1.2
Mortality risk distribution of selected hydro-meteorological hazards (tropical cyclones, floods
and rain-triggered landslides) in East and North-East Asia
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Data Sources: UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, cartography
UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2012
Map 1.3
Mortality risk distribution of selected hydro-meteorological hazards (tropical cyclones, floods
and rain-triggered landslides) in South and South-West Asia
Data Sources: UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, cartography UNEP/GRIDGeneva 2012
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Map 1.4
Mortality risk distribution of selected hydro-meteorological hazards (tropical cyclones, floods
and rain-triggered landslides) in South-East Asia
Source: Data Sources: UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, cartography UNEP/GRIDGeneva 2012
Map 1.5
Mortality risk distribution of selected hydro-meteorological hazards (tropical cyclones, floods
and rain-triggered landslides) in the Pacific
Data Sources: UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, cartography UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2012
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1.3.2. Analysis of physical exposure and trends of hydro-meteorological hazards
Human exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards still continues to rise. The region’s
population almost doubled from 2.2 billion to 4.2 billion people between 1970 and 2010,
and the average number of people exposed to annual flooding more than doubled from
29.5 to 63.8 million. In addition, the population residing in cyclone-prone areas grew
from 71.8 million to 120.7 million. Despite the increase in exposure, for hydrometeorological hazards, mortality risks are decreasing in some subregions. This can be
attributed to improved development conditions and shows the impact of investments in
early warning or preparedness activities.
In terms of physical exposure of people and assets to hydro-meteorological hazards, the
following analysis of the risk model demonstrates considerable variation among the
subregions.
The Asian and Pacific population increased by 91 per cent from 2.2 billion to 4.2 billion
people between 1970 and 2010. In the same period, the average number of people annually
exposed to flooding every year more than doubled from 29.5 to 63.8 million17. The increase
in population has occurred primarily in coastal areas and often in flood plains. This can be an
indication of perceived economic advantages existing in those areas which have outweighed
any negative considerations of flood risks (in both mortality and economic risks). Similarly,
the population resident in cyclone-prone areas has also grown from 71.8 million in 1970 to
120.7 million in 201018. Growing coastal population also reflects a recognition of the better
economic opportunities and urban development more generally, as well as some specific
situational conditions that can highlight tropical coastlines for tourism. Likewise, even in a
lower level of magnitude, the annual exposure to rain-triggered landslides almost doubled
during the same period.
Two thirds of the population exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards is located in East and
North-East Asia, but the rate of its increasing exposure is less than that being experienced in
South Asia (table 1.5). Eighty-five per cent of people’s physical exposure to flood is located
in South Asia, which also displays the highest rate of increasing exposure. (table 1.6).
Landslides show a similar pattern, with lower levels of exposure in the Pacific subregion of
2.2 per cent, but with the highest rate of increasing exposure for this specific hazard (table
1.7).
The figures indicated in tables 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7 are subregional averages, so while they
provide insight on subregional tendencies, they cannot exclude the possibility that individual
countries may follow a different trend. The data for each individual country are available in
the advanced tool of the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform (UNEP, UNISDR, 2012). The
trend for individual hydro-meteorological hazards is provided below
17
These figures were obtained by intersecting the Global Flood Hazard Model (Herold et al., 2009 ; Herold and
Mouton, 2011) with the Landscan population distribution model (Oak Ridge Laboratory, 2008) further modified
by UNEP/GRID-Geneva to provide population at different dates.
18
These figures were obtained by intersecting the Global Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model with the Landsan
population distribution model as explained in UNISDR 2009, UNISDR 2011a and Peduzzi et al. (2012)
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1.3.2.1. Trend analysis for tropical cyclones
The trend in tropical cyclones hazards indicates that there has been little change in the overall
number of land falling tropical cyclones in Asia-Pacific region since 1970 (figure I.6). The
number of recorded cyclones of categories 1 and 2 has been decreasing, whereas the number
of those of categories 4 and 5 has been increasing.19 Although most of the annual average
exposure to tropical cyclones is concentrated in East and North-East Asia, exposure is
growing most rapidly in all other regions with an increase of almost 2.5 times since the
1970s, except in the Pacific (table 1.6). According to the IPCC (2012), under the different
climate change scenarios, heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to
increase with continued warming (IPCC, 2012). Average tropical cyclone maximum wind
speeds are likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean basins. It is likely
that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially
unchanged.(IPCC, 2012).
Figure I.7
Average annual number of tropical cyclone landfalls in Asia-Pacific, 1970-2009, by SaffirSimpson20 category
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, reprocessed at regional level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
19
While this may possibly be a result of climate change and warmer sea temperatures, it may also be due to
changes in recording instruments and methods (Landsea et al., 2006). With only a short data series it is
impossible to confirm whether this is a longer-term trend.
20
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 5 step rating scale based on a hurricane’s intensity. It provides an
estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along coastlines from an approaching
hurricane. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are otherwise highly
dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the specific landfall locations.
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The trend in human exposure to tropical cyclones shows that East and North-East Asia has a
low increase of population exposure compared to the two Southern Asia subregions, however
the former concentrates two thirds of the entire population’s exposure.
Subregion
East and North-East Asia
North and Central Asia
Pacific
South-East Asia
South and South-West Asia
Total
Table 1.5
Tropical cyclone exposure in the Asia-Pacific
millions)
1980
63.8
0.1
0.3
16.1
5.7
85.9
1990
71.1
0.1
0.4
20.7
7.1
99.4
2000
76.4
0.1
0.4
25.6
8.7
111.1
2010
79.5
0.1
0.5
30.5
10.1
120.7
region (modelled people exposed per year, in
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
The trends in ‘modeled mortality risk’ level were computed by modeling hazard, exposure
and vulnerability. The models are based on extensive GIS analysis and statistical regression
analysis (see Peduzzi et al., 2012 for details). It uses footprints of past hazardous events to
extract population exposure and related vulnerability contextual parameters at the time of the
events. The trend in past risk analysis was obtained by replacing values of population
exposure and vulnerability parameters by values for the years 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010.
The hazard level is replaced by the average frequency and severity values for each location
(at 1 x 1 km resolution). The hazard and exposure maps can be viewed on the PREVIEW
Global Risk Data Platform (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The hazard is set as a constant to
remove the seasonal variability, and thus better capture the long-term trends in exposure and
vulnerability changes.
The analysis of trends in past modeled risk, vulnerability and exposure for different
subregions and hazards illustrate that ‘vulnerability’ is in most cases decreasing, except in
North and Central Asia, and in South and South-West Asia. By contrast, the exposure of
people increases in all regions to more than 50 per cent of 1980 values, with the exception of
North and Central Asia where it remains very low, and East and North-East Asia where the
increase is limited to around 25 per cent.
The past risk levels depend on the combination of exposure and vulnerability levels and they
are observed to be generally decreasing at least since 1990, with the exception of South and
South-West Asia. Even though exposure in South-East Asia shows an increasing trend, the
overall risk is still declining compared to 1980 values due to a decrease in vulnerability. This
tendency is even more visible in East and North-East Asia which reflects a combined limited
increase in exposure and a strong decrease in vulnerability. Figure I.8 illustrates the
respective trends of risk, exposure and vulnerability in the region.
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Figure I.8
Percentage change in tropical cyclone mortality risk, exposure and vulnerability, as modelled
for the period 1980 – 2010 (baseline year 1980)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
1.3.2.2. Past trend analysis for floods
The lack of comprehensive monitoring of flood hazard prevents the calculation of its trend in
the same way it was performed for tropical cyclones. The following analysis is based on the
global flood hazard model from Herold and Mouton (Herold et al., 2009; Herold and Mouton,
2011). It reflects a flood severity corresponding to a 100 year return period. The flood model
relates to a river floods so does not include flash floods, urban floods (mostly resulting from
inappropriate drainage) or costal floods. The model could not be applied to catchment smaller
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than 1000 km2, hence Pacific islands are misrepresented and their exposure and risk can be
significantly underestimated. (Corresponding values are not given in Table 1.8).
The analysis of trends in the human exposure to floods illustrates that exposure has more than
doubled due to demographic changes. South-East Asia and particularly South and SouthWest Asia show the highest values of exposure and greatest rates of increase. The two
Northern subregions both show the lowest values and trends with even a stable exposure in
North and Central Asia since 1980. Given that this is computed under average hazard
occurrence, this is consistent with the trend of the population living in flood-prone areas.
Table 1.6 illustrates the increasing trend of exposure to floods in specific subregions.
Subregion
1980
1990
2000
2010
East and North-East Asia
5.9
6.9
7.6
8.2
North and Central Asia
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
a
Pacific
..
..
..
..
South-East Asia
5.8
7.3
8.8
10.1
South and South-West Asia
24.9
31.6
38.4
44.9
Total
37.1
46.3
55.4
63.8
Table 1.6
Flood exposure in the Asia-Pacific region, (modelled people exposed per year, in million)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
Notes:
a Because of limitations in the global risk model, values for the Pacific region were not available. The global
model cannot process basins smaller than 1,000 km2, so small islands are not able to be included in the analysis.
The analysis of trends in flood mortality risk, vulnerability and exposure in the subregions in
figure I.6 shows that vulnerability is constantly decreasing in East and North-East Asia, and
South-East Asia. It remains nearly constant in North and Central Asia and in the Pacific. An
increase is evident in South and South-West Asia prior to 2000, although a net decrease is
registered since then. This reflects the urbanization and economic development in the region,
with the growth in urban multiple storey construction contributing to the reduced the
mortality risk from flood. Exposure increases in all regions with a maximum value of more
than a 75 per cent increase compared to 1980 observed in South Asia. Minimum values are
seen in North and Central Asia with only a 9 per cent increase since 1980.
The flood risk trends follow those of vulnerability with a general increase in all regions with
the exception of East and North-East Asia where it decreases by 40 per cent when compared
to 1980 values. The South and South-West Asia region shows the largest increase in flood
risk with a 180 per cent increase since 1980. North and Central Asia shows the minimum
increase in flood risk with a 27 per cent increase since 1980.
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Figure I.9
Percentage change in flood mortality risk, exposure and vulnerability, as modelled for the
period 1980 – 2010 (baseline year 1980)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
1.3.2.3. Exposure to landslides increasing in Southern subregions and the Pacific
Similar to floods and tropical cyclones, the trend in exposure to rain-triggered landslides
across Asia-Pacific is increasing, even as the measure is of a lesser magnitude and as it is
expressed on a different scale. Table 1.7 conveys this exposure in terms of thousands of
people exposed to rain-triggered landslides each year in contrast to the previous hazards
discussed for which exposure was expressed in terms of millions of people being exposed to
tropical cyclones and floods. Table 1.7 illustrates that together the two Southern subregions
concentrate more than 70 per cent of the exposure, increasing at a rate equivalent to the
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Pacific subregion (about a double of the 1980 values). The increase remains limited in the
two Northern subregions with even a decreasing trend being evident in North and Central
Asia since 1990.
Subregion
1980
1990
2000
2010
East and North-East Asia
14.5
16.5
18.0
18.9
North and Central Asia
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Pacific
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.6
South-East Asia
19.0
23.5
27.7
31.9
South and South-West Asia
10.3
12.9
15.8
18.5
Total
44.8
54.1
63.0
71.1
Table 1.7
Landslide exposure in the Asia-Pacific region, modelled as people exposed per year, in
thousands
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
In terms of trends in mortality risk, the vulnerability and exposure to landslides as indicated
in figure I.9 is generally decreasing by 60 per cent of 1980 values except in North and Central
Asia where it remains nearly constant. However the exposure follows a contrary tendency,
with a general increase in the Pacific, South and South-West Asia, but with no change in
North and Central Asia. The landslide risk remains generally low, with two contrary trends
evident with a 28 per cent increase in the Pacific and a 29 per cent decrease in East and
North-East Asia relative to 1980 values. The nearly constant trend in both South-East Asia
and South-West and South Asia is a positive indication as these subregions account for nearly
three quarters of the entire exposure within the region.
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Figure I.10
Percentage change in landslide mortality risk, exposure and vulnerability, as modelled for the
period 1980 – 2010 (baseline year 1980)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
With this analysis one can conclude that there are important subregional differences in
mortality risk trends. The only subregion showing a constant decrease of mortality risk for all
hazards is East and North-East Asia. In addition to exhibiting an impressive 72 per cent
reduction of tropical cyclone risk, it also represents fully 66 per cent of the overall AsiaPacific exposure to the specific hazards discussed (figures I.8, I.9, and I.10). By contrast,
South and South-West Asia shows the highest increase in tropical cyclone and flood
mortality risks, indicating that growing exposure in this area continues to outpace reductions
in vulnerability. The Pacific subregion has the greatest increase in landslide mortality risk.
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In term of relative mortality risk, expressed as a percentage of the exposed population, figure
I.11 indicates that the trends are decreasing for all subregions and hazards between 1980 and
2010. Trends in relative mortality risk in a few subregions show some inconsistency such as
in the case of tropical cyclone and landslide mortality risks in North and Central Asia, or
tropical cyclone and flood risks in South and South-West Asia
Figure I.11
Percentage change in relative mortality risk in the Asia-Pacific region (baseline year 1980)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
1.3.3. Analysis of trends in economic exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards
Economic exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards is increasing dramatically in all the
subregions of Asia-Pacific. The main driver of economic risks due to hydrometeorological hazards is exposure. Global GDP has more than tripled from 12.4 to 40.2
trillion dollars (in constant 2000 USD). The Asia-Pacific GDP has grown by 4.5 times
during the same period. Trends in economic exposure are increasing for nearly all
subregions and hazards. The Asia-Pacific region represents more than 85 per cent of
global economic exposure to tropical cyclones. Economic exposure to floods in East and
North-East Asia increased by 10 times in 40 years. East and North-East Asia represents
85 per cent of global economic exposure to rain-triggered landslides.
In comparison with mortality risk and physical exposure, the economic exposure is also
increasing dramatically in all the subregions of Asia-Pacific. The decreasing mortality risk
could be attributed to increasing operational capacities of countries in disaster preparedness,
emergency response, early warning and strengthened risk governance capacities. However,
the rapidly growing exposure and economic growth throughout the Asia-Pacific region places
more assets of a country at greater risk. This section analyses the current trends in terms of
the economic exposure in the various subregions and relative to the specific hydro26
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meteorological hazards being discussed. This trend analysis is based on constant hazard and
annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data provided by the World Bank.
The population of the world has almost doubled between 1970 and 2010, during which time
the global GDP has more than tripled from 12.4 to 40.2 trillion dollars (in constant 2000
USD). The Asia-Pacific GDP has grown by four and a half times during the same period,
demonstrating an increase from 23 per cent of the world GDP to 33 per cent over these 40
years. In general terms, previous discussion in this section indicated that the exposure to
hydro-meteorological hazards has grown by three and a half times between 1970 – 2010.
Contrary to the physical exposure, trends in economic exposure are increasing for nearly all
subregions and hazards, with the sole exception being North and Central Asia. This subregion
maintains a very low level of absolute exposure, except for flood hazards. The East and
North-East region exhibits a concentration of primary economic exposure, although the rate
of increased exposure varies among the other subregions and hazards.
1.3.3.1. The Asia-Pacific region represents more than 85 per cent of global economic
exposure to tropical cyclones
Figure I.12 and table 1.8 illustrate that since 1970, the Asia-Pacific regions steadily
accumulated more than 85 per cent of the global economic exposure to tropical cyclones.
East and North-East Asia accounts for 98 per cent of the total Asia-Pacific exposure which
has quadrupled since 1970. Other subregions show a similar trend of 4 to5 times growth of
exposure from the 1970 values, except the North and Central subregion where it fluctuates
around 1970 values.
Figure I.12
Trend in economic exposure in Asia-Pacific subregions due to tropical cyclones
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
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Subregion
East and North-East Asia
North and Central Asia
Pacific
South-East Asia
South and South-West Asia
Total
1980
738.9
0.2
2.8
13.3
1.4
756.6
1990
1134.2
0.2
4.2
15.9
2.3
1156.9
2000
1398.3
0.1
6.1
21.8
3.9
1430.2
2010
1627.8
0.2
7.7
33.8
7.4
1677.0
Table 1.8
Economic exposure of Asia-Pacific subregions to tropical cyclones, (billion 2000 USD)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
1.3.3.2. The economic exposure to flood in East and North-East Asia has increased 10
times in 40 years
The rate of increase in economic exposure for flood hazard is the highest of all hazards
analyzed in this study, as shown in figure I.13 and table 1.9. Having increased ten times in
East and North-East Asia, almost eight times in South-East Asia, and nearly six fold in South
and South-West Asia, these three Asia subregions increased their percentage of global
economic exposure to floods from 26 per cent to 49 per cent over the past 40 years.
Figure I.13
Trend in economic exposure in Asia-Pacific subregions due to floods
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
Subregion
East and North-East Asia
North and Central Asia
Pacific
South-East Asia
South and South-West
Asia
Total
1980
4.6
1.2
0.4
2.4
4.5
1990
8.3
1.4
0.5
3.9
6.9
2000
14.4
1.0
0.7
6.4
11.2
2010
27.0
1.6
0.9
10.7
20.6
13.1
21.0
33.7
60.8
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Table 1.9
Economic exposure of Asia-Pacific region to floods, (billion 2000 USD )
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
1.3.3.3. East and North-East Asia represents 85 per cent of global economic exposure to
rain-triggered landslides
Figure I.14 and table 1.10 indicate that as is similar in the case of other hazards, East and
North-East Asia represents 85 per cent of the Asia-Pacific economic exposure to raintriggered landslides. Despite the scales of exposure being measured in millions instead of
billions as with tropical cyclones and floods, the rate of increase over the past 40 years
remains significant. East and North-East Asia’s economic exposure has grown by a factor of
4, and South and South-West Asia has increased by a factor of 6.
Figure I.14
Trend in economic exposure in Asia-Pacific subregions due to landslides
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
Subregion
1980
1990
2000
2010
East and North-East Asia
86.4
134.9
173.2
211.6
North and Central Asia
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
Pacific
1.6
1.9
2.6
3.4
South-East Asia
10.3
14.1
20.1
31.4
South and South-West Asia
2.8
4.8
7.9
14.2
Total
101.4
156.0
204.0
261.0
Table 1.10
Economic exposure of Asia-Pacific region to rainfall-triggered landslides, (thousand people per
year)
Source: UNISDR, GAR 2011, global analysis, reprocessed at subnational level (UNEP/GRID-Geneva)
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1.4. The impacts of low-severity and high-frequency disasters in Asia-Pacific
For countries with fewer operational capacities, small-scale disaster events that are of
low-severity and high-frequency are equally destructive compared to large-scale
disasters. In particular, in low capacity countries like Nepal, the number of deaths and
the damage to housing are similar from large but rare disasters as they are to smaller but
frequent ones. This means the developmental benefit seen in other countries from early
warning and preparedness is not as readily evident in areas with low capacities.
When people consider which type of disaster kills more people and destroys the most
property, they typically think of powerful earthquakes, “once in hundred years” tsunamis,
unprecedented floods or historically memorable tropical cyclones. However, more recent
study suggests that the truly destructive nature of disasters rather occurs mostly in recurrent
small or medium scale disasters.
The analysis of large and small scale disasters, sometimes referred to as being either
“intensive” or “extensive” depending on whether they are high-severity and low-frequency
events or low-severity and high-frequency ones respectively,21 shows the serious extent of
their consequences with often higher mortality and economic losses. These observations
supported by national disaster databases 22 in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Nepal are
indicated in figures I.15 and I.16. They show that small-scale disasters cause a similar
number of deaths and destruction of property when compared to larger scale disasters.
21
For detailed definition of these terms, refer to http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology
22
National disaster databases refer here to those systematic loss recording systems that are mainly based on
DesInventar and which capture disaster loss information of small, medium and large scale disasters at national
and sub-national levels. For additional information see http://www.desinventar.net/
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Figure I.15
Mortality from extensive and intensive disaster events in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1970-2009,
and Nepal , 1971-2010
Source: UNISDR from Desinventar data, accessed 20 May 2012
Figure I.16
Houses destroyed by extensive and intensive disaster events in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 19702009, and Nepal, 1971-2009
Source : UNISDR from Desinventar data, accessed 20 May 2012
The IPCC has indicated23 that extreme or “intensive” events will have greater impacts on
sectors with closer linkages to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry,
health, and tourism. However, uncertainty remains about similar conditions related to
extensive events. While there is no projection available yet regarding smaller, recurrent
extensive disasters, historical data indicate that extensive disasters have also been major
23
ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
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contributors to mortality and economic losses. Figure I.15 shows that in the Islamic Republic
of Iran and Nepal mortality in small-scale but frequent disaster events continues to increase.
1.4.1. Mortality continues to increase in small-scale disasters
While, the GAR 2011 noted that the risk of being killed by a cyclone or flood is generally
lower today than it was 20 years ago, in a number of countries in Asia-Pacific mortality in
extensive disaster events is still increasing. The incidence of mortality between 1990-2009 in
Indonesia and Viet Nam demonstrates this trend (figure I.17). While there certainly has been
improved reporting of events with greatly expanded information resources, there is also
growing awareness of the increasing numbers of extensive events and that more people are
exposed to disasters.
Figure I.17
Mortality due to disasters in extensive disasters in Viet Nam , 1989-2009, and Indonesia, 19902009
Source: UNISDR from Desinventar, data sourced 20 May 2012
It is alarming to note that not only mortality but also losses are increasing in extensive events,
at least in selected countries. Figure I.18 indicates that the trend of increase in losses is also
linked with a growth in economic development of the country when measured in terms of
GDP per capita. 24 Even as Asia-Pacific is experiencing an economic boom, evidence
indicates that more of its population and assets continue to be exposed to the consequences of
disasters.
24
Data sourced from: http://data.worldbank.org/
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Figure I.18
Houses destroyed in extensive disasters in Viet Nam , 1989-2009, and Indonesia, 1990-2009
Source: UNISDR from Desinventar, data sourced 22 May 2012
1.5. Urbanization and Risk Growth Patterns
More people and economic assets are increasingly at risk in the region due to rapid and
unplanned urbanization. Prospectively, 64 percent of the population in the Asia region
is likely to be in urban areas by the year 2050. The concentration of population and the
urban agglomerations near coastlines places a majority of the urban centers in high to
severe mortality risk areas. This shifting trend of disaster risk from rural to urban
areas calls for a rethinking of the principles of community-based disaster risk
management in urban contexts.
Urbanization is the process of physical growth of urban areas through incoming migration
from rural areas or through normal development processes. There has been no single
definition of urban areas as such, with different definitions and criteria being applied in
different countries and continents. However, the significantly higher density of urban
population relative to the surrounding areas is usually noted as a common factor.
In Asia, an urban area is typically characterized as being a densely populated city or town.
Globally, 13 of the top 20 populated urban areas are in the Asian region. It is estimated that
by 2030 some 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in urban areas and by 2050 this
will have risen to 70 per cent. Similarly, the population of urban areas in Asia has increased
from 17 percent to 44 percent from 1950- 2010; it is likely to reach 64 per cent of Asia’s
population by 2050. This rapid urbanization also places more people and economic assets at
risk.
Urban areas concentrate people and economic assets, often in hazard-prone areas as cities
have historically prospered in coastal areas and at the confluence of rivers. Of the 305 urban
agglomerations in the Asia-Pacific region, 119 are in Asian coastal areas (UNDESA 2011)
which are also mainly exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards. In the developing world,
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some 95 percent 25 of urban population growth takes place in low-quality, overcrowded
housing or in informal settlements, with urbanization rates typically higher in small and
medium-sized cities, although this varies among continents.
An overlay of urban agglomerations on a distribution of mortality risk in Asia (figure I.18)
reveals interesting patterns. Many of the urban agglomerations exist in areas of medium to
extreme mortality risk from disasters. This is particularly prominent in the Indo-Gangetic
plain and some coastal areas of China and Viet Nam. This has implications for how the risk is
likely to be realized in the form of a disaster. Over past decades, disasters primarily were seen
as rural phenomena in Asia. Institutional systems to provide relief and manage recovery in
the aftermath of disasters were structured accordingly, but the increasingly urbanizing nature
of disaster risk means that this will now need to change. With their concentration of
populations, capital assets and economic activities, cities present unique opportunities and
challenges. Empowerment for both anticipatory and compensatory disaster risk management
in cities is likely to be critical in the coming decades. The principles of community-based
disaster risk management that have been applied primarily in rural areas for the past two
decades need to be reinvented and applied to urban contexts in the coming years.
Figure I.19
Urban agglomerations with more than 750,000 inhabitants in 2011 and the distribution of
potential mortality risk from hydro-meteorological hazards
Data Sources: Potential mortality risk:-UNEP UNISDR, PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform, cartography
UNEP/GRID-Geneva 2012
Urban agglomerations: Based on Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization
Prospects: The 2009 Revision.
Cartography: UNISDR
25
Source: World Development Report 2010, World Bank
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Case study: Unplanned growth contributes to more risk: settlement fires in Odisha, India
It is often observed that the impacts of population and economic growth are pushing
communities into unsustainable practices, such as by encroaching on forests, living in
vulnerable structures and generally by creating a more congested lifestyle. GAR 2011
highlighted how extensive risks are expanding geographically and that similarly reflected the
increasing population and growth in assets. The case of Odisha in India confirms this finding.
The DesInventar records for Odisha, India from 1980-201026 indicate that while the number
of fire events (both urban and rural) has declined, their severity has increased. The available
data shown in table 1.12 indicates that there were about 1351 events during 1980-90, about
1208 in 1990-2000 and only 980 between 2000-2010. However, figure I.18 illustrates that the
occurrence of the events has spread initially from six districts in 1980-90 to fifteen districts in
2000-2010. Most of the cases indicate that human action was one of the major reasons for
these fires.
Year
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
Incidents
1 351
1 208
980
Loss (in million INR)
873
828
1 603
Houses Destroyed
171 658
74 638
73 973
People Affected
335 377
138 307
545 547
Deaths
268
847
283
Table 1.11
Household fires reported caused by extensive risks in Odisha State, India, 1980-2010
Source: UNISDR from Desinventar data, sourced 22 May 2012
Figure I.20
Extensive household fire events in Odisha state, India.
Source: UNISDR from Desinventar data, sourced 22 May 2012
The population density of Odisha’s capital city Bhubaneswar has increased from 638
people/km2 in 1951 to 6172 people/km2 in 2011. During this period, both the amount of
housing and population have increased, however the rapidly increasing demand for housing
26
http://www.desinventar.net/DesInventar/profiletab.jsp?countrycode=or
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has not always been met by properly engineered houses. This has contributed to an
abundance of unsafe houses which are more prone to fire hazards. The growing urban
population has also resulted in more informal settlements and slum dwellers. In Bhubaneswar
alone, more than 350,000 people live in very unsafe housing in 377 slums.
Most of these fire incidents occur in conditions of the unplanned growth of human
settlements, congested markets and in slums with individual causes of the fires including
inadequate housing design, unsafe construction or electrical short circuits. A further lack of
fire safety measures and enforcement of fire regulations only adds to the problem.
1.6. Emerging Risks
The occurrence and extremely severe consequences of the combined effects of the Japanese
earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in 2011 emphasize the need to consider emerging
risks that can be expected to occur in the Asia-Pacific region. The dynamic consequences of
growth, changing concentrations and locations of human habitation and its effects on the
environment all underline the importance of constant re-evaluation of risks and the changing
conditions in which they develop. It is a continuous activity including a constantly expanding
array of professional capacities and political responsibilities and public understanding.
The emergence of complex hazards such as the combination of the massive earthquake and
its directly related tsunami, which then triggered the serious nuclear disaster event in
Fukushima (Japan) is an urgent call for future attention. Despite some shared elements of
magnitudes and far-reaching effects, a more considered comparison to the aftermath of the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami also reveals some significant differences. The Indian Ocean
tsunami was the third largest disaster in terms of mortality since 1975, while the 2011
Japanese tsunami triggered the highest economic losses. 27 However, there are important
distinctions in the nature and the duration of the impacts of the disaster events.
At the time of a natural hazard crisis, immediate intervention and emergency assistance is
generally feasible. In the case of a nuclear incident, uncontrolled radioactivity prevents or
severely limits opportunities for direct intervention to manage or contain the impacts from
much wider distribution. A nuclear incident also can remove large areas of land and many
other essential resources from human use for an extended time period, imposing significant
limitations on the habitation and livelihoods of affected communities. There are wider
ramifications for the society at large too, as for example in energy policy, the expectations
and accepted roles of government authorities in matters of public safety, and even in the
fundamental models of society. In the case of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, the coastal
infrastructure was restored often within months or not more than in a few years. In the case of
Fukushima’s nuclear fallout, the length of time needed for full recovery of land, populations
and livelihoods may takes decades or even generations.
While there has been a frequent tendency generally to consider less developed countries as
more vulnerable to disaster risks, the Fukushima tsunami and its related nuclear
consequences revealed that highly technologically advanced and richer countries also remain
vulnerable to more complex hazards. Not only do such complex events lead to more difficult
situations, as was also demonstrated in the Gulf of Mexico oil blowout crisis in the United
27
EM-DAT, 2011
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States of America in 2010, but these and similar unprecedented events suggest what will
become more challenging future disaster risks in the Asia-Pacific region.
The organization of societies continues to evolve with improved technologies and more
information continuously becoming available which can decrease people’s vulnerability.
However, these very same advances can equally expose more people to potentially dangerous
infrastructure with their growing complexity also leading more easily to secondary hazards.
Despite the progress that continues to be made and even with the better understanding about
reducing disaster risks (UNISDR, 2011), large sections of humanity continue to live under
poor conditions that expose them to disproportionate mortality from natural hazards when
compared to more developed societies (UNDP, 2004). By contrast, the Fukishima, Japan case
highlights the highest economic and technological vulnerability of developed countries. The
underlying lesson for all societies is that “zero risk” does not exist anywhere. In facing the
prospect for future risks with such long term consequences as nuclear contamination or even
seriously demobilized cities or suspended public services or commercial supply chains,
advanced disaster risk management planning must anticipate wider and more complex
dimensions of future disasters.
Because of its dynamic nature, risk needs to be re-evaluated periodically. Studying risk
requires the understanding of all its components: the distribution, frequency and intensity of
natural hazards; the potential influence of climate change on various hazards; the intervening
roles of humankind; the demographic changes in populations’ density, location and
relationships to the assets on which they must depend. Attention also has to be focused
beyond the physical characteristics of exposure, considering the evolution of socio-economic
conditions and the related contexts associated with human vulnerability. This continuing
evaluation cannot be separated from a wider understanding of the relationships and potential
impacts of changing and often deteriorating ecosystems and natural resources on future
disaster risks.
In looking towards the future, more consideration needs to be given to the humantechnological interfaces that exist among human society, natural hazards and the potentially
dangerous assets that drive development and national growth. These include nuclear power
facilities, the chemical industry, dams and other utility facilities and infrastructure, and the
interdependent elements of modern electronic communications. All of these elements are
bound together in modern societies which remain exposed to the cumulative effect of
successive or compound disasters. Future leaders need to be humble and enquiring as they
acknowledge that not all accomplishments and developments are reducing human
vulnerability. The evaluation and management of risk will remain a constant quest.
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Annex 1.1 - Concepts and definitions of risk and global change
Risk and its components
Historically risk evolved from the perspective of a physical event to a more integrated
approach taking account of additional socio-economic factors which influence human
vulnerability. Various disciplines such as those of natural science, engineering, social
science, humanitarian action, and sustainable development all had their own distinctive focus
for risk concepts. While it was mutually comprehensible and meaningful within their own
communities of practice, but sowing confusion beyond, individual disciplines sometimes
used the same words but with different meanings or connotations. Because these definitions
are not universal, a clarification is provided here on how these concepts of risk and related
terms are used in this report.
As the professional and institutional contexts of this document reflects the work and interests
of United Nations agencies, the choice of terminology employed follows closely that which is
used in UNDP and UNISDR. The specific definitions provided here are mostly derived from
UNISDR’s on-line terminology source, http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology)
(UNISDR, 2011b).
Risk
Risk should not be confused with losses. Losses or impacts refer to the number of human
losses, the type and amount of infrastructure damaged or destroyed, or the amount of crops
damaged other economic losses, or quantifiable damage to the natural environment. They are
sometimes referred to "realized risk" or "disaster losses" (Peduzzi, 2012).
By observing the related components of risk as described by UNDRO (1979) in the notation,
R  H  E V
Where:
R=
H=
E=
V=
Risk (expected losses for a specific length of time, hazard type and intensity)
Hazard (frequency of occurrence, for a specific intensity)
Elements at risk (number of people or assets), or “Exposure”
Vulnerability (percentage of _____________)
Risk is the outcome of the interaction between a hazard phenomenon, the elements at risk in a
specific location or community, and the extent of likely vulnerability of those elements to
loss or damage. This relationship among the components is justified because should any one
of them (hazard, exposure or vulnerability) be absent, then the risk is nil. (Peduzzi et al.,
2001, Peduzzi et al., 2002; UNDP, 2004).
Each of these components is described in detail below.
Hazards
A hazard is the probability of occurrence of a physical phenomenon which may threaten
human lives, lead to injuries, property damage or dysfunction of social and economic systems
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or the degradation of natural ecosystems, depending on related vulnerability of the elements
exposed (UNISDR, 2011a).
Each hazard can be characterized by its location, frequency (probability of occurrence), and
strength (measured in magnitude, intensity or toxicity) (UNISDR, 2011a). The potential
destructive power of a hazard depends on the magnitude, duration, location, and timing of the
event (Burton et al., 1993).
Hazards can be of natural origin, a category that includes tectonic hazards (such as
earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, ...); hydro-meteorological hazards (floods, tropical
cyclones,...); biological hazards (plague, epidemics, ...) and climatic hazards (drought,
temperature extremes, ...). They can also be of anthropogenic origin, such as pollution (oil or
chemical spills, nuclear accidents, ...), fires, civil conflict or explosions. Many hazards can
trigger secondary hazards, which in some cases lead to greater impacts than those of the
initial hazard. For example, the 2011 Japanese earthquake created a devastating tsunami,
which in turn led to a major nuclear incident
Exposure
The exposure is the number of "people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard
zones that are thereby subject to potential losses." (UNISDR, 2011b). Measures of exposure
can include the number of people or types of assets in a specified location or area. An
intersection between an area potentially affected by a hazard and the population or economic
assets can be described, for example by using GIS techniques to identify how many people
are living or assets are located in hazard-prone area.
Vulnerability
Vulnerability is probably the most complex component to comprehend. For UNISDR,
vulnerability includes "the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset
that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. […] arising from various
physical, social, economic, and environmental factors" (UNISDR 2011a). Vulnerability also
can be computed as a percentage of losses as compared with total exposure (UNDRO, 1991).
The current report approaches vulnerability through contextual parameters associated with
vulnerability. These include the elements of poverty, capacity of early warning, knowledge of
emergency action or crisis management, the existence of appropriate evacuation plans or
presence of shelters, or the appropriate design of buildings, among other protective or
mitigating practices. When information is not necessarily available directly, proxy indicators
may be employed to express relative degrees of existing vulnerability. For example, the
number of radios per inhabitants can be a useful indicator of early warning capacity.
There are additional supporting notions related to vulnerability.
Coping capacity is "the ability of people, organizations and systems, using available skills
and resources, to face and manage adverse conditions, emergencies or disasters." (UNISDR,
2011a). Vulnerability and coping capacity can be merged together. Coping capacity can be
seen as the opposite of vulnerability, although in theory vulnerability is more closely
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associated to an individual’s abilities and attributes whereas coping capacity is associated
with the institutional or wider societal embodiment or demonstration of collective
capabilities.
Resilience is "the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist,
absorb, accommodate and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient
manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures
and functions". (UNISDR, 2011a). Resilience is used more specifically in engineering to
compute the solidity of buildings, as for example in expressing their resistance to a shock.
Decreasing the likely occurrence of a hazard or the extent of existing vulnerability with
means of structural resilience can be achieved by building dikes or dams for avoiding or
minimizing flood hazards. Retrofitting buildings through structural improvements or
improving the design and enforcement of building codes to make the structures more resilient
to higher cyclones intensities are additional examples of effective resilience measures.
However, such structural resilience may increase exposure and lead to a disaster should the
hazard be stronger than the maximum envisaged when building infrastructure.
Measuring resilience can be challenging for a society. It is a concept that lends itself to be
more accessible when it can be approached by evaluating a variety of other indicators. These
can include assessing the levels of wealth, education, information, preparedness within a
community, or by considering the relative existing exposure to hazards, quality of planning,
level of governance, participation of the civil society, culture and perception of risk among
the population concerned. While there is no comprehensive way of measuring vulnerability,
resilience and coping capacity physically, there are a number of methods that attempt to grasp
these concepts and characterize them as usefully as possible (Birkmann et al., 2006).
Annex 1.2
Modeled risk versus recorded losses: The need for a comprehensive approach
Most reports on risk trends base their analysis on reported losses (such as from EM-DAT). Most recorded losses
are concentrated in a very small number of infrequent intensive disasters with long return periods. The
occurrence of one or more intensive disasters in any given decade, therefore, distorts any underlying trend. In
addition, trends identified using reported losses also reflect improved disaster reporting over time.
The Centre of Research in Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) is the only centre, which provides public access
to data on losses due to disasters with a global coverage (EMDAT database, http://www.em-dat.net/). During the
41-year period from 1970 - 2010 the number of disasters reported has increased continuously, with more than 50
per cent of the designated disaster events (droughts, earthquakes, tropical cyclones and floods) reported in the
last 12 years of the referenced period.
Can one infer that the number of disasters has increased? Alternatively, has the increased number of disasters
reported been due to improvements in information access? If the former hypothesis is correct, is it due to the
increase in population densities resulting in a growing exposure to the hazards, an increase in vulnerability or
because of changes in hazard probability and/or intensity, such as may be due to climate change?
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Figure xx
Number of reported disasters per year in EM-DAT (droughts, earthquakes, tropical cyclones
and floods)
Sources: Peduzzi, 2012
Without denying the potential impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological hazards, a
simple analysis reveals that there are stronger links between the increase of population and an
increase in access to information. This is probably due to improvements in information
technologies (satellite, internet, media coverage). These improvements have introduced a bias
in information access through time (Peduzzi et al., 2010, 2012).
Satellite data indicate that on average, between 142 and 155 countries have been affected by
tropical cyclones every year between 1970 and 2010. However, the number of internationally
reported cyclone disasters has tripled during the same period of time. The numbers of land
falling tropical cyclones, as well as the number of affected countries remain stable despite the
population of the world having increased from 3.7 to 6.9 billion during the same period. This
has not however translated into higher reported mortality, which has been decreasing.
Table X
Trends of tropical cyclones reported by EM-DAT versus detected by satellite per decades (average per
year).
International databases on losses are not comprehensive; information quality and completeness vary by region
and time period. Moreover these databases do not tell us whether high losses result from high exposure, high
intensity or high vulnerability. Hence, they are not suited for risk trend analysis. Consequently a new approach
is needed. The method used in GAR reports (ISDR, 2009 and UNISDR, 2011) and those applied in this chapter
provide a trend analysis of modeled mortality risk based on GIS and statistical regression, using international
loss databases only for initial calibrations. Because they are not comprehensive, international loss databases are
therefore not sufficiently well-suited to be used for trend analysis.
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