TOR for Lead Consultant: BRACED Baseline Lead Organisation Programme Baseline Timeframe Evaluation Team Composition Christian Aid BRACED–Building Resilience to Climate Extremes and Disasters (Jan 2015–Dec 2017) Late April to End August 2015 1 lead international consultant; 2 local consultants (1 Burkina Faso, 1 Ethiopia); 2 Christian Aid Programme Performance Advisors 1. Background: Christian Aid is seeking a Lead Consultant to manage and deliver Baseline data collection and Studies for its BRACED programmes in Ethiopia and Burkina Faso. BRACED (Building Resilience to Climate Adaptability and Disasters) is a flagship DfID programme under the International Climate Fund. With a total budget of £140million distributed over 3 years, BRACED aims to directly benefit up to 5 million people, especially women and children, in developing countries by helping them become more resilient to climate extremes and disasters. Furthermore, through improved policies and institutions at national level and better integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate adaptation and development programmes, BRACED aims to benefit many millions more. In 2014, DfID approved two Christian Aid led BRACED proposals, in Ethiopia (£4million, benefiting over 700,000 people in 12 woredas) and in Burkina Faso (£7million to benefit over 1.3 million people in 4 provinces). We are working in consortia to deliver a complete and integrated approach to building the resilience of communities vulnerable to climate shocks and stresses. This approach builds on learning which suggests that at risk communities require access to regular, reliable and user friendly climate information to enable them to make more informed choices in regards to building resilience. Key elements are: 1) Working with local and UK Meteorological agencies to increase the quality and quantity of reliable, useable local climate data where it is most needed. 2) Pursuing a high impact communications strategy to ensure that the relevant information reaches the atrisk people who need it. 3) Building the capacity of local partners to support communities to organise and effectively respond to the information they receive through practical activities tailored to the communities’ expressed needs. For both DfID and Christian Aid, BRACED is about delivering effective resilience programmes and reducing vulnerability to climate extremes and disasters. But it is also about learning more about ‘what works’ in terms of building resilience – and how we can best assess improved resilience that can be attributed to funded interventions. Our programme therefore emphasises strong, methodical M&E, and Kings College London will also be leading a research component and supporting learning across the programmes. A six month programme development phase prior to the application deadline in early 2014 has enabled both Ethiopia and Burkina Faso consortia to conduct preliminary contextual research and engage with target communities to feed into relevant programme designs and budgets. During this period, a Monitoring and Evaluation Framework was developed, which included a methodology for assessing improvements in resilience in line with Christian Aid’s Resilient Livelihoods Approach. This framework will form the basis for the BRACED Baseline methodology – but it is also expected that the Baseline process will contribute to the M&E Framework’s refinement and development. Table 1: Countries and Consortium Members BRACED – Ethiopia BRACED – Burkina Faso Consortium members Christian Aid: main implementing partner with oversight for the work of the programme. BBC Media Action: design and implementation of communications strategy, focused on local radio. Action Aid Ethiopia: implementation of practical resilience activities. King’s College London: thematic research, production and dissemination of policy briefs and academic papers. National Meteorology Agency (NMA): develop and implement systems and processes to improve climate forecasting and user friendly climate information for at risk populations. Met Office (UK): support to NMA to develop systems and processes necessary to improve climate forecasting. Christian Aid: main implementing partner with oversight for the work of the programme. Oxfam Intermon: implementation of project activities in the Centre North Region. Action Contre la Faim (ACF): implementation of project activities in Gnagna Province, East Region. Alliance Technique d’Assistance au Développement (ATAD): design and delivery of strategies and activities to cope with climate shocks. Office de Développement des Eglises Evangéliques (ODE): technical assistance to communities and data collection in the field. Internews Europe: production and dissemination of climate information. King’s College London: thematic research, production and dissemination of policy briefs and academic papers. Met Office (UK): provide weather and climate advice to Burkina Meteo. Burkina Meteo: local partner for the Met Office, providing weather and climate advice. Television du Burkina: production of regular weather forecasts for local radio. 2. Purpose: Two studies will be developed to establish the baseline situations of two Christian Aid led BRACED consortium programmes in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia, and to make recommendations for the future delivery and monitoring of the programmes. 3. Objective and Scope: 1. To gather relevant baseline data for key project logframe indicators – including a baseline survey to gauge beneficiary access to relevant, accurate, usable climate information, and the current resilience status of beneficiaries (in line with our M&E Plan). 2. To establish the project’s benchmarks for comparing and impact measurement at the end of the project, which will enable consortium members to measure the results and impact throughout and at the end of the project. 3. To carry out primary (qualitative and quantitative) and secondary research into the political, social, economic, climatic/ vulnerability, forecasting and communications environments in the project areas. 4. To recommend options for all consortium partners to inform the project’s successful implementation 5. To advise on the final indicators for the logframe. 6. To recommend options for the finalisation of the BRACED M&E Framework. 4. Budget The total budget for this assignment is £60k across both programmes, including all costs. 5. Key Considerations: 1) The existing draft BRACED M&E Framework should form the basis of the Baseline Plan. 2) Gender is a vital issue for the development of the BRACED baseline methodology – all data collection processes should be gender sensitive, and data disaggregated by gender and other relevant groups. 3) We will monitor the climate context and the accuracy of forecasting information, to enable us to 1) understand where improvements/ declines in results are due to our projects or changing weather patterns; and 2) to gauge improvements in the accuracy of forecasting information as a result of capacity building. The Met services carry out this baseline research, in coordination with the Evaluation Team. 4) We are planning to use the KoBo online provider to administer digital data collection for the survey. 5) The methodology should subscribe to the BOND Principles of Quality Evidence. 6) Data collection will be conducted in line with ethical conduct principles, and HAP standards. 6. Evaluation Stakeholders – Roles and responsibilities A Baseline Steering Committee has been established to provide quality assurance over the Baseline design, implementation and report. It is comprised of Programme Management Unit staff (representing Consortium needs, and programmatic feasibility/ context), CA Advisors (climatic, M&E, resilience, digital data gathering), Large and Complex Programmes staff, and a Kings College London representative The core Evaluation Team consists of: 1 Lead Consultant 2 Local Consultants (1 Ethiopia, 1 Burkina Faso) 2 CA Programme Performance Advisors (1 Resilience, 1 Large and Complex Programmes Advisor) The Lead Consultant will be responsible for: 1) Finalising the baseline methodology, tools and work plan for Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (in line with the existing M&E Framework); 2) the indicator development process, survey design and Indicator finalisation/ M&E workshop in one of the two countries, in coordination with the CA Advisors; 3) defining the roles of the local consultants and managing their work plans and responsibilities; 4) carrying out further field research and interviews in both countries; 5) the delivery of both Baseline studies, including defining and managing contributions from the Evaluation Team and feedback from wider stakeholders; 6) leading the final debrief. The CA Performance Advisors will work closely with the Lead Consultant to: 1) ensure that the baseline design aligns with CA’s approach to resilience and the BRACED M&E Plan; 2) support the indicator development process in the second country, following the Lead Consultant’s finalised methodology; 3) manage the M&E training in both countries. (Their roles will be defined in detail together with the Lead Consultant based on the finalised methodology, work plan, and local consultant roles). The role of the Local Consultants will be defined with the Lead Consultant, in line with their skills, experience and expertise. It is expected that they will 1) manage the delivery of all community based field exercises relating to the baseline, including community based indicator development exercises, the enumerator training and baseline survey delivery; 2) lead the synthesis of received BRAPA reports; 3) it is also hoped that they will support the wider field research and provide contextual information to feed into each final baseline report. A full list of wider stakeholders will be defined upon project start-up. 7. Methodology: The successful Lead Consultant will be expected to develop a baseline proposal that clearly articulates a methodology and timeline/ responsibilities for undertaking the baseline study. The methodology should reflect the existing BRACED M&E Framework and this TOR. The final methodology will also be expected to incorporate Knowledge Manager guidance expected on 31st March 2015 where possible, and where it aligns with our M&E Plan. Methods and tools should include the following: 7.1 Quantitative Data Collection: A quantitative survey will be designed by the Lead Consultant, together with the Evaluation Team, in line with the country level programme and consortium plans, the BRACED Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Knowledge Manager guidance. Survey development will include: 7.2 Development of a sampling strategy in line with the existing Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. The strategy should align with our intention to collect panel data (from the same individuals) over the course of the programmes at key evaluation stages. Development and delivery of participatory exercises within a sample of target communities to inform the design of relevant resilience indicators in line with locally planned project activities. Community feedback will also be used to develop indicator thresholds to understand what change means in terms of improvement / decline in resilience, in line with our M&E Plan Development of resilience indicators and thresholds based on community feedback and planned activities In-country workshops with Partner M&E staff to validate and finalise the indicators and finalise the questions for the survey (This workshop will also provide training to partner staff on BRACED M&E) Finalisation / testing of Survey and input onto digital data technology. We will be using smartphone technology and the KoBo online digital survey platform. Enumerator training, survey implementation and data analysis Data entry, treatment and analysis Qualitative Data Collection: Further guidance from the BRACED Knowledge Manager regarding qualitative data collection will be released, but we expect methods to include: A synthesis of BRAPA reports and action plans will be carried out by local consultants to summarise community perceptions of vulnerabilities, hazards, and capacities – BRAPAs will have been carried out in most target communities by partners including intensive focus group discussions over 3 days in each community, and so these reports will provide the primary source of community based qualitative information for the baseline. Some of the information will be quantifiable (ranking exercises, etc.), and the report synthesis should provide an overview of this data. Key Informant Interviews (including the use of an adapted Rolling Profile tool to gauge changing attitudes of key actors across the course of the programme) – A full list of stakeholders will be developed by the Baseline Steering Committee. There will be a PhotoVoice project taking place in an Ethiopian Community, which will feed qualitative evidence into the baseline. 7.3 Contextual Research: A lot of contextual background was established during the Project Development Phase and so the literature review will be vital in pulling these elements together. However, further data gathering and interviews will be required. We are expecting further guidance from the BRACED Knowledge Manager regarding the baseline and M&E of context for BRACED Implementing Partners, but we expect this to include: Establishment of the climatic context (led by relevant Met agencies, but also drawing on BRAPA findings about community perceptions of hazards/ climate shocks and stresses) Establishment of the quality of forecasting (as above) –(Again led by Met agencies, drawing on BRAPA feedback) - This should be with a view to making recommendations for the implementation of appropriate monitoring systems through the project, to enable us to 1) assess the accuracy of local forecasts against actual weather patterns; and 2) compare our monitoring data against weather patterns in order to establish whether change has been as a result of climate or the programme. Establishment of the communications context of the project (working with relevant media consortium partners and stakeholders; also drawing on BRAPA findings about community feedback of how information is received) Establishment of the relevant political, legislative, social, economic, private sector and civil society context drawing on relevant sources of data (project development phase literature, as well as other sources of official and available information will be outlined in the Baseline Start-up period). 7.4 Literature Review 8. Timeframes and Responsibilities (TBC subject to negotiation): Month April Week 2 3 Activities Lead Consultant: - Advert deadline: 10th April; - Shortlisting and invite to interview 13th April; Interviews 16th April; Offer 17th April - All consultants will be recruited and contracts signed w/c 20th April Ethiopia elections, no field access Lead Consultant, Steering Comm., local consultants Local Consultants (CA to agree method with Lead Consultant) 4 - Start-up workshop in Christian Aid’s London Office on (24th April? To be agreed) to finalise methodology and work plan. Indicator development exercises to be carried out in a sample of BRACED communities (Agree format by 28th April; Field work 29-1 May; Report by 6th May) 1 - Lead Consultant begins literature review, consortium interviews Literature Review, interviews continue - Local Consultants report on indicator development exercises by 6th May; Begin BRAPA synthesis of submitted report findings Local Consultants - Indicators and thresholds drafted, based on CA Resilience Framework, community exercises, BRAPAs and Action Plans - Recruit Enumerators/confirm partner staff for upcoming training/data collection Led by Lead Consultant / Advisors Partners/ Local Consultants - May Responsibilities 2 Lead Consultant 3 - Ethiopia Continued work on Indicators Led by Lead Consultant and/ or Performance Advisor - - 4 - - June July Burkina Rainy Season, no field access August Burkina Rainy Season, no field access - 2 day workshop in-country for lead M&E staff to: 1) provide M&E training for the BRACED programme; 2) confirm and validate baseline indicators (26-27 May) Led by Lead Consultant / Advisor Finalise survey; Input onto KoBo by 5th June Led by Lead Consultant and Advisors (CA IT to provide digital support) Enumerator training (4-5 June) Led by Local Consultant - Survey implementation (8 June – 10 July) Led by Local Consultant/ partners - Wider field work/ interviews - Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) Survey implementation complete by 10th July Led by Local Consultant/ partners - - Burkina Faso 2 day workshop in-country for lead Consortium M&E staff to: 1) provide M&E training for the BRACED programme; 2) confirm and validate baseline indicators (18-19 May) Led by Lead Consultant/ Advisor Finalisation of survey based on agreed indicators; Input onto digital data technology (KoBo) (By beginning week 4) Led by Lead Consultant / Advisors (CA IT digital support) Enumerator training (28-9 May) Led by Local Consultant - Survey implementation begins 1 June Led by Local Consultant / partners - Wider field work/ interviews - Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) - Survey implementation (Complete by 30 June) Led by Local Consultant/ partners - Wider field work/ interviews - Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) - Data cleaning, report writing - Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) - First draft of final Baseline Study due 31st July 2015. - Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) - Data cleaning, report writing- Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) - First draft of final Baseline Study due 31st July 2015. - Lead Consultant (/ Evaluation Team) 6th August – Lead Consultant to present findings to Baseline Steering Committee and consortium stakeholders - Lead consultant/ Steering Comm. - 14th August – Deadline for comments on baseline reports Steering Committee - 20th August – Deadline for consultants to submit second draft of baseline reports, incorporating comments Lead consultant - By 26th August – Final Drafts agreed - 30th August – Both baseline reports submitted to DfID. Lead consultant/ Steering Committee LCP/ PMUs 9. Outputs: As well as initial meetings, the Lead Consultant, supported by the Evaluation Team, will be responsible for delivering the following outputs: 10.1 Methodology The Lead Consultant should develop a full methodology, to include 1. Work plan, chronogram and roles and responsibilities of the evaluation team (in line with the overall BRACED programme implementation plans and time frames) 2. Methodology for data collection, including: Finalise design of participatory indicator development exercise, in line with BRACED M&E Framework and in consultation with CA Advisors Finalised survey questionnaire Design of Key Informant Interviews (potentially drawing on Rolling Profile format) 3. Sampling strategy (building on existing work carried out with Reading Statistical Services Centre) 4. Budget This methodology should be in line with the existing BRACED M&E Plan and the Knowledge Manager Guidance, and agreed with the BRACED Baseline Steering Committee, including a start-up workshop led by the Lead Consultant. 10.2 Two 2-Day Indicator Development and M&E Workshops The Lead Consultant and Performance Advisors should deliver a workshop in each Country to refine and finalise the baseline indicators with key partner M&E staff, and to deliver BRACED M&E training. (The Lead Consultant will be supported on the M&E section). 10.3 Two Baseline Reports The following basic elements must be present for each report (Ethiopia and Burkina Faso) Maximum 30 pages per report before appendices Executive Summary with key findings and recommendations Programme Objectives Methodology, including: o Approaches taken and rationale o Questionnaire development o Sampling strategy (size, design etc.) o Training of data collectors o Quality control measures o Data cleaning and analysis Methodological challenges and limitations A detailed analysis of all key areas of the baseline study, including findings from primary and secondary data collection. To include: o Context analysis summary (climatic, forecasting and communications, as well as relevant political, legislative, social, economic, private sector and civil society context.) o Data to populate each section of the BRACED logframe o Quantitative survey results analysis, including a summary table of key indicators and results o Summary BRAPA analysis Recommendations: o For each consortium partner based on findings o For the finalisation of the programme logframe and M&E Framework o For the finalisation of the logframe (including weightings / thresholds of outcome indicators) Conclusions Annexes with lists of all the people interviewed, areas visited and dates Annexes with findings from stakeholders, community meetings Annexes with the tools used (surveys etc.) Annex with a full synthesis of the BRAPA findings Annex developed by Met offices relating to climate and forecasting context and monitoring plan 10.4 Presentation of Findings 10. Proposal Submission Details This opportunity is for a dedicated and highly motivated development professional with strong commitment to Christian Aid’s values and beliefs. If you believe you qualify for this post, please submit your application and CV (including number, date, location, client and type of evaluation/ survey for all prior evaluations conducted) in English by the 10th April 2015 to AIngham@christian-aid.org (Amy Ingham – Performance Advisor, Large and Complex Programmes) and slartey@christian-aid.org – Senior Programme Manager, Large and Complex Programmes). The applicant is expected to submit their CV together with a combined technical and financial proposal (maximum 5 pages) outlining: - Introduction about how their skills/ experience fit the role requirements - Proposed methodology, work plan, timeline and time required for each key element - Outline of sample design, based on TOR information and M&E Brief - Proposed work plan for Evaluation Team, including roles, responsibilities and time required for each key element - Detailed budget including estimates for all costs (logistics, days/ daily rate etc) - At least 2 references and contact details Lead Consultant Person Specification/ Qualifications 1) At least 8 years’ experience designing and managing large scale international evaluations, including baseline studies. (Experiencing of delivering baselines for DfID funded programmes preferred). 2) Demonstrated experience and expertise in the design and management of baseline studies, using both qualitative and quantitative survey approaches 3) Demonstrated experience of developing and delivering sampling strategies 4) Demonstrated experience and expertise in climate / resilience programming or evaluation highly desirable, including relevant indicator development 5) Demonstrated experience in questionnaire development with mobile platforms and mobile data collection within developing countries 6) Professional work experience in Africa, preferably Burkina Faso and / or Ethiopia 7) Fluency in English required; fluency in French is highly desirable. 8) The applicant should be UK based/ able to travel to our London office cheaply (highly desirable)