TECHNICAL WORKSHOP
SIMULATING FOREST ECOSYSTEMS WITH FORECAST
National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan
August 26 – 30, 2013
This workshop will introduce the basic ideas used in simulating forest ecosystems for longterm analysis of the effects of forest management, pollution, natural disturbances, etc. The ideas on
forest ecosystem modeling will be illustrated with the use of FORECAST, a hybrid, ecosystem-level
forest simulator, developed by the Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation Group at the University
of British Columbia, Canada. This model has been extensively used in boreal, temperate, and tropical
ecosystems of Canada, USA, Cuba, Spain, and China.
In this workshop attendants will learn the basic ideas of forest ecosystem modeling: main
ecosystem processes to be simulated, and the basic steps in carrying out modeling studies. In addition,
the attendants will learn the basic procedure to calibrate, run and test the forest ecosystem model
FORECAST. Theoretical lectures and discussions will be combined with hands-on exercises with the
models PINEL (implemented in the modelling framework STELLA), FORECAST, and FORTOON
(an educational extension of FORECAST).
The instructor, Dr. Juan A. Blanco, is a senior researcher at the Public University of Navarre
(UPNA, Pamplona, Spain), and is a former research associate at the model developer´s group at UBC.
During the time he worked at UBC, Dr. Blanco participated in the development and evaluation of
FORECAST in different forest types around the world. Dr. Blanco has more than 10 years of
experience in ecosystem modeling, and he is member of the Editorial Board of Ecological Modelling,
which also awarded him as the “Outstanding Reviewer of 2011”.
TENTATIVE WORKSHOP PROGRAM
August 26, Monday. Ecosystem models in forest research and management
0.5 hours. Welcoming and registration of the workshop participants.
0.5 hours. Introduction of the workshop instructor and attendants by the workshop coordinator Dr.
Shih-Chieh Chang.
2 hours. Basic ideas about modelling in forest management and research.
2 hours. Creation of different types of models (conceptual/numerical, empirical/process-based).
2 hours. Basic steps in using ecosystem models: calibration, sensitivity analysis, evaluation, scenario
analysis.
August 27, Tuesday. The ecosystem-level model FORECAST
2 hours. Production ecology: processes to be modeled in a forest simulator.
- Tree growth and resource competition
- Some model driving functions (photosynthesis, crown space, diameter).
3 hours. The FORECAST model: Basic description and current uses of the model.
- File organization
- Information flow in the model
- Sources of calibration data
2 hours. Calibrating FORECAST (part 1): Soil processes
- Litter decomposition
- Humus decomposition
- Available nutrients in the soil
August 28, Wednesday. Ecological processes in FORECAST
4 hours. Calibrating FORECAST (part 2): Simulation of tree processes.
- Photosynthesis in the tree canopy: simulation of light limitation
- Tree uptake: simulation of nutrient limitation
- Tree growth: respiration and carbon allocation.
- Tree mortality
- Understanding FORECAST internal calibration output
1 hours. Calibrating FORECAST (part 3): Understory processes.
2 hours. Calibrating FORECAST (part 4): Initial conditions of the simulation.
- Ecosystem steady-state
- Ecosystem disturbance regime
August 29, Thursday. Simulating forests with FORECAST: some examples
3 hours. Scenario creation and simulatin in FORECAST.
- Simulating forest management
- Simulating natural disturbances
- Understanding FORECAST results
4 hours. Some examples of FORECAST application
- Douglas-fir plantations in western Canada: evaluating FORECAST.
- Caribbean pine plantations in Cuba: exploring alternative management methods.
- Chinese-fir plantations in Fujian, China: the importance of model complexity.
- Chinese-fir plantations in subtropical China: atmospheric pollution and management.
August 30, Friday. Beyond FORECAST: simulating forests at different scales
3 hours. Questions on the use of FORECAST to simulate forest ecosystems.
1 hour. Explicit simulation of hydrological processes: Integration of the sub-model ForWaDy.
0.5 hour. The individual-tree model FORCEE.
0.5 hour. The landscape-level model LLEMS.
1 hours. Final discussion on forest models and farewell to the attendants.
RECOMMENDED BIBLIOGRAPHY
Essential bibliography:
 Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Kimmins J.P., Seebacher T.M. 2007. Testing the performance
of FORECAST, a forest ecosystem model, against 29 years of field data in a Pseudotsuga
menziesii plantation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 37, 1808-1820.
 Chapters 5 and 8 in Kimmins J.P., Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Scoullar K. 2010.
Forecasting Forest Futures: A Hybrid Modelling Approach to the Assessment of Sustainability of
Forest Ecosystems and their Values. Earthscan Ltd. London, UK. 281. ISBN: 978-1-84407-922-3.
 Kimmins, J.P., Mailly, D., and Seely, B. 1999. Modelling forest ecosystem net primary
production: the hybrid simulation approach used in FORECAST. Ecol. Modeling 122: 195-224.
 Vanclay, JK, 1994. Modelling Forest Growth and Yield: Applications to Mixed Tropical Forests.
CAB International, Wallingford, UK, xvii + 312 pp.
Other recommended bibliography
Model building:
 Blanco J.A., Welham C., Kimmins J.P., Seely B., Mailly D. 2009. Guidelines for modeling natural
regeneration in boreal forests. The Forestry Chronicle. 85(3), 427-439.
 Blanco J.A., Zavala M.A., Imbert J.B., Castillo F.J. 2005. Sustainability of forest management
practices: Evaluation through a simulation model of nutrient cycling. Forest Ecology and
Management 213 (1-3), 209-228.
 Jakeman AJ, Letcher RA, Norton JP. 2006. Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of
Environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software 21, 602-614.
 Kimmins J.P., Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Scoullar K. 2008. Complexity in Modeling
Forest Ecosystems; How Much is Enough? Forest Ecology and Management, 256, 1646-1658.
 Lo Y.-H., Blanco J.A., Kimmins, J.P., Seely B., Welham C. 2011. Linking climate change and
forest ecophysiology to project future trends in tree growth: a review of forest models. In: Blanco
J.A., Kheradmand H. (Eds.) 2011. Climate Change – Research and Technology for adaptation and
mitigation. InTech, Rijeka, Croatia. Pp 63-86. ISBN: 979-953-307-278-3.
Model evaluation:
 Lo Y.-H., Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Kimmins J.P. 2011. Generating reliable
meteorological data in mountainous areas with scarce presence of weather records: the
performance of MTCLIM in interior British Columbia, Canada. Environmental Modelling &
Software, 26, 644-657.
 Oreskes N, Shrader-Frechette K, Belitz K. 1994. Verification, validation and confirmation of
numerical models in the earth Sciences. Science 263, 641-646.
 Rykiel EJ. 1996. Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation. Ecological Modelling 90,
229-244.
 Seely B., Hawkins C., Blanco J.A., Welham C., Kimmins J.P. 2008. Evaluation of a mechanistic
approach to mixedwood modelling. The Forestry Chronicle, 84, 181-193.
 Wang F., Mladenoff D., Forrester J., Blanco J.A., Scheller R., Peckham S., Keough C. 2013.
Multi-Model Simulations of Long-Term Effects of Forest Harvesting on Ecosystem Productivity
and C/N Cycling. Ecological Applications, in press.
FORECAST applications:
 Bi J., Blanco J.A., Kimmins J.P., Ding Y., Seely B., Welham C. 2007. Yield decline in Chinese
Fir plantations: A simulation investigation with implications for model complexity. Canadian
Journal of Forest Research, 37, 1615-1630.
 Blanco J.A. 2007. The representation of allelopathy in ecosystem-level forest models. Ecological
Modelling, 209 (2-4), 65-77.
 Blanco J.A. 2012. Forests may need centuries to recover their original productivity after
continuous intensive management: an example from Douglas-fir. Science of the Total
Environment, 437, 91-103.
 Blanco J.A., González E. 2010. Exploring the sustainability of current management prescriptions
for Pinus caribaea plantations in Cuba: a modelling approach. Journal of Tropical Forest Science,
22(2), 139-154.
 Blanco J.A., Wei X., Jiang H., Jie C.Y., Xin Z.H. 2012. Enhanced nitrogen deposition in southeast China could partially offset negative effects of soil acidification on biomass production of
Chinese fir plantations. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 42: 437-450.
 Seely, B., J. Nelson, R. Wells, B. Peter, M. Meitner, A. Anderson, H. Harshaw, S. Sheppard, F.
Bunnell, H. Kimmins, and D. Harrison. 2004. The application of a hierarchical, decision-support
system to evaluate multi-objective forest management strategies: A case study in northeastern
British Columbia, Canada. For. Ecol. Manage. 199: 283-305.
 Seely B., Welham C., Blanco J.A. 2010. Towards the application of soil organic matter as an
indicator of ecosystem productivity: Deriving thresholds, developing monitoring systems, and
evaluating practices. Ecological Indicators, 10, 999-1008.
 Seely, B., C. Welham and J.P. Kimmins. 2002. Carbon sequestration in a boreal forest ecosystem:
results from the ecosystem simulation model, FORECAST. For. Ecol. Manage. 169: 123-135.
 Wang W., Wei X., Liao W., Blanco J.A., Liu Y., Liu S., Liu G., Guo X., Guo S. 2013. Evaluation
of the effects of forest management strategies on carbon sequestration in evergreen broad-leaved
(Phoebe bournei) plantation forests using FORECAST ecosystem model. Forest Ecology and
Management, 300, 21-32.
 Wei, X., Blanco J.A., Jiang H., Kimmins J.P. 2012. Effects of nitrogen deposition on carbon
sequestration in Chinese fir forests. Science of the Total Environment, 416, 351-361.
 Wei, X., J.P. Kimmins and G. Zhou. 2003. Disturbances and the sustainability of long-term site
productivity in lodgepole pine forests in the central interior of British Columbia - an ecosystem
modelling approach. Ecological Modelling 164:239-256.
 Welham C., Blanco J.A., Kimmins J.P., Seely B. 2010. The utility and application of ecological
models in agroforestry: the FORECAST family of models. In: Kellimore L.R. (Ed.) Handbook of
Agroforestry: Management, Practices and Environmental Impact. Nova Science Publishers, NY.
Pp 347-366. ISBN: 978-1-60876-359-7.
 Welham C., Blanco J.A., Seely B., Bampfylde C. 2012. Oil sands reclamation and the projected
development of wildlife habitat attributes. In: Vitt. D.H. (Ed.) Reclamation and Restoration of
Boreal Ecosystems: attaining sustainable development. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK. ISBN 978-1107015715. In press.
 Welham C., Seely B., Blanco J.A. 2012. Projected patterns of C storage in upland forests
reclaimed after oil sands mining. In: Vitt. D.H. (Ed.) Reclamation and Restoration of Boreal
Ecosystems: attaining sustainable development. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
ISBN 978-1107015715. In press.
 Welham, C., Seely B., Kimmins J.P. 2002. The utility of the two-pass harvesting system: an
analysis using the ecosystem simulation model FORECAST. Can. J. For. Res. 32:1071-1079.