Chapter 3 Lecture Notes 1. Elasticity: a. Intuition: Responsiveness of dependent variable Y to a change in independent variable X %Δ𝑌 b. Mathematical Definition: 𝜀𝑌𝑋 = %Δ𝑋 ≈ 1 𝑑𝑌 𝑌 𝑑𝑡 1 𝑑𝑋 𝑋 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑑𝑌 𝑌 𝑑𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑑𝑌 = 𝑌 𝑑𝑋 2. Elastic vs Inelastic 1 Inelastic Elastic 3. Price Elasticity of Demand 𝜀𝑄𝑃 = %ΔQ 𝑃 𝑑𝑄 ≈ %Δ𝑃 𝑄 𝑑𝑃 The quantity that buyers will buy depends upon the price charged for the product. An increase in the price will tend to decrease the quantity bought. That is, the LAW OF DEMAND implies 𝜀𝑄𝑃 < 0 will tend to hold. The elasticity question is how much demand will decrease when price increases, or how SENSITIVE demand is to price. 4. Price Elasticity of Demand and Revenue: What happens to revenue when a firm increases the price of the product it produces? (More is earned on each sale, but there will be less sales.) 𝑅 = 𝑃𝑄 𝑑𝑅 𝑑𝑄 𝑑𝑃 =𝑃 +𝑄 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑅 𝑃 𝑑𝑄 =𝑄 +𝑄 𝑑𝑃 𝑄 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑅 = 𝑄[𝜀𝑄𝑃 + 1] 𝑑𝑃 So, 𝑑𝑅 𝑑𝑃 = 0 ⟺ 𝜀𝑄𝑃 = −1, 𝑑𝑅 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑅 > 0 ⟺ 𝜀𝑄𝑃 > −1 , and 𝑑𝑃 < 0 ⟺ 𝜀𝑄𝑃 < −1 That is, to maximize revenue, the price should be set so the price elasticity of demand is equal to negative one, or is unitary elastic. If inelastic, the producer can increase revenue by increasing the price. (The quantity decrease is not enough to offset the greater revenue per unit. If elastic, the producer can increase revenue by decreasing the price. (The quantity increase is more than enough to offset the decrease in revenue per unit.) 5. Price Elasticity of Demand and Profit: Π=𝑅−𝐶 Π = 𝑃𝑄 − 𝐶 1 dΠ 𝑑𝑄 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝐶 =𝑃 +𝑄 − dP 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃 dΠ 𝑃 𝑑𝑄 𝑑𝐶 =𝑄 +𝑄− dP 𝑄 𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃 dΠ 𝑑𝐶 = 𝑄[𝜀𝑄𝑃 + 1] − dP 𝑑𝑃 dΠ 𝑑𝐶 𝑑𝐶 1 If profits are maximized, then dP = 0, which implies 𝑄[𝜀𝑄𝑃 + 1] = 𝑑𝑃, or [𝜀𝑄𝑃 + 1] = 𝑑𝑃 𝑄. 𝑑𝐶 𝑑𝐶 𝑑𝑄 𝑑𝐶 𝑑𝑄 𝑑𝐶 Since 𝑑𝑃 = 𝑑𝑄 𝑑𝑃 , and since 𝑑𝑄 > 0 and 𝑑𝑃 < 0 , we know 𝑑𝑃 < 0, which implies 𝜀𝑄𝑃 + 1 < 0, or 𝜀𝑄𝑃 < −1. That is, if a firm is maximizing its profit, then the demand facing the firm will be ELASTIC. This implies, if the firm is operating efficiently, it should be true that a decrease in price will increase sales revenue, but it does not make sense to do so because the increased quantity produced will also increase costs by enough to make the change not worthwhile. 6. Linear Demand Curve: 𝑄 = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑃 dQ It follows that dP = −b, and 𝜀𝑄𝑃 = dQ 𝑃 dP 𝑄 𝑃 = −𝑏 𝑄. We can show where the unitary elasticity point is on the demand curve by setting 𝜀𝑄𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑏𝑃 −1. This implies −𝑏 𝑄 = −1, or 𝑎−𝑏𝑃 𝑎 = 1, which implies 𝑃 = 2𝑏. And, substituting this 𝑎 result back into the demand curve equation, we find 𝑄 = 2. 𝑎 Similarly, it follows that setting 𝑎 𝑎 𝑎 𝜀𝑄𝑃 < −1 implies 𝑃 > 2𝑏 𝑄 < 2, while 0 > 𝜀𝑄𝑃 > −1 implies 𝑃 < 2𝑏 𝑄 > 2. Plotting the linear demand curve, we there for know that the unitary elastic point is the midpoint of the curve, the elastic portion is associated with a relatively high price, and the inelastic portion is associated with a relatively low price, as shown in the figure below. P 𝑎 𝑏 𝑎 2𝑏 Elastic 𝜀𝑄𝑃 < −1 Unitary Elasticity 𝜀𝑄𝑃 = −1 Inelastic -1<𝜀𝑄𝑃 < 0 𝑎 2 a Q 2 7. Market Demand Curves, their slope, and their point price elasticity of demand P P Perfectly Inelastic Perfectly Elastic Q Q P More Inelastic Point Elasticity More Elastic Q 8. Primary factors affecting OWN PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND a. Available substitutes (More substitutes implies more elastic) b. Time (More time to adjust implies more elastic) c. Expenditure share (Smaller share of total expenditure implies less elastic) 9. Price Elasticity Estimates (Market Demand) a. Elastic i. Motorcycles and bicycles ii. Cereal iii. Recreation (especially elastic long term) b. Inelastic i. Transportation ii. Food (but elastic long term) iii. Alcohol and tobacco (very inelastic short term) 10. Marginal Revenue and Price Facing the Firm 𝑑𝑅 𝑀𝑅 = 𝑑𝑄 = 𝑃 [ 𝜀𝑄𝑃 +1 𝑀𝑅 𝜀𝑄𝑃 𝑃 ], so =[ 𝜀𝑄𝑃 +1 𝜀𝑄𝑃 ] < 1, so MR<P 3 Intuition: To sell the next unit, the firm must lower the price. Therefore, even though an extra unit is sold the revenue obtain from selling the next unit is not as great as what the price had been. Perfect Competition: 𝜀𝑄𝑃 = −∞, meaning demand is infinitely sensitive to price, or it means demand is perfectly elastic. In this case, MR=P. The firm is called a price taker, meaning the firm cannot increase its price or it will lose all customers, and it need not lower its price because the firm can sell all it wants at the market price. In this case, the market entirely sets the price. 11. Cross Price Elasticity: 𝜀𝑄𝑌𝑃𝑋 a. How will the demand for good Y change when the price of good X increases? b. If goods X and Y are substitutes, then 𝜀𝑄𝑌𝑃𝑋 > 0 i. Examples: Food and Recreation\ c. If goods X and Y are complements, then 𝜀𝑄𝑌𝑃𝑋 < 0 i. Examples: Transportation and Recreation, Clothing and food d. Using Cross price elasticity in a restaurant i. If items on the menu are complements, then decreasing the price of one item may not only lead to an increase in its purchase, but it may also lead to an increase in the purchases of the complement. ii. So, cross elasticities should be considered, not just own elasticities when developing pricing policies for multiple product delivery. 12. Income Elasticity a. How elastic is demand when income changes? b. Normal Good: Elasticity is positive (Steak) c. Inferior Good: Elasticity is negative (Top Ramen) 13. Estimating Elasticities a. Linear Demand Function: 𝑄𝑥 = 𝛼0 + 𝛼1 𝑃𝑥 + 𝛼2 𝑃𝑌 + 𝛼3 𝑌 i. Use linear regression to estimate 𝛼1 , 𝛼2 , 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝛼3 dQ 𝑃 dQ 𝑃 ii. Note that dP x = α1 , so 𝜀𝑄𝑥 𝑃𝑥 = 𝑄𝑥 dPx = α1 𝑄𝑥 x 𝑥 x 𝑥 iii. Similarly, we can derive the cross elasticity 𝜀 𝑄𝑥 𝑃𝑦 =α2 𝑃𝑦 and the income 𝑄𝑥 elasticity 𝜀𝑄 𝑌 𝑥 𝑌=α3 𝑄 𝑥 b. Cobb-Douglas (Log-Linear) Demand Function: 𝑄𝑥 = 𝛼0 𝑃𝑥 𝛼1 𝑃𝑌 𝛼2 𝑌 𝛼3 i. There is a nonlinear relationship between demand and the other factors ii. To estimate the parameters, this model must be linearized, which can be done by taking the natural log. Doing so, one obtains: iii. 𝑙𝑛(𝑄𝑥 ) = 𝑙𝑛(𝛼0 ) + 𝛼1 𝑙𝑛(𝑃𝑥 ) + 𝛼2 𝑙𝑛(𝑃𝑌 ) + 𝛼3 𝑙𝑛(𝑌) 1 dQ iv. Taking the derivative with respect to 𝑃𝑥 , we obtain Q dP x = α1 , which implies x x 𝜀𝑄𝑥 𝑃𝑥 = α1 . So we can estimate the elasticity α1 by regressing 𝑙𝑛(𝑄𝑥 ) on 𝑙𝑛(𝑃𝑥 ), 𝑙𝑛(𝑃𝑌 ), and 𝑙𝑛(𝑌). 4 14. Deriving Elasticities using Excel a. Use BeerData for Wisconsin in class (quantity of beer, price of beer, income of consumers) b. Estimate a linear model of the demand for beer, as it depends upon the beer price and consumer income c. Find price elasticity of demand for beer in Wisconsin, week by week, and income elasticity of demand d. Find the averages for the elasticities estimated e. Estimate a nonlinear model and obtain the elasticity of demand for beer in Wisconsin, and income elasticity of demand f. Show professional presentation of results g. Interpret results 5 Chapter 3 Questions CH 3, Question 1: Use the BeerData for Ohio to do the following: a. Estimate a linear model of the demand for beer, as it depends upon the beer price and consumer income. Present your estimated model professionally. b. Find price elasticity of demand for beer in Ohio, week by week. (Nothing to turn in for this.) c. Find the income elasticity of demand, week by week. (Nothing to turn in for this.) d. Find the averages of the elasticities for parts (b) and (c) and report these. e. Estimate a LogLinear model to obtain the price elasticity of demand for beer in Ohio, and the income elasticity of demand. Report your results in a professional manner, and identify the elasticities. f. Interpret your results from both the linear and nonlinear models. CH3, Question 2: Use the MilkData to do the following: a. Estimate a linear model of the demand for milk, as it depends upon the milk price and dollars spent on advertising. Present your estimated model professionally. g. Find price elasticity of demand for milk, week by week. (Nothing to turn in for this.) h. Find the advertising elasticity of demand, week by week . (Nothing to turn in for this.) b. Find the averages of the elasticities for parts (b) and (c) and report these. c. Estimate a LogLinear model to obtain the price elasticity of demand for milk, and the income elasticity of demand. Report your results in a professional manner, and identify the elasticities. d. Interpret your results from both the linear and nonlinear models. 6