Prof. V.N. Salin
Head, Dept. of Statistics
The Content of the course “Statistics for Bachelors of Economics”
The Content of the course units.
Unit 1. Theory of Statistics
Theme 1.1. Subject-matter, methodology and problems of statistics. Basic
categories and concepts
Origins of statistics as a science (the historical aspect). Subject–matter of
statistical science. Branches of statistics. Its place in the paradigm of economic
sciences.
Methodology of statistics. The role of the Law of large numbers in eliciting
and studying statistical regularities in the development of social and economic
phenomena and processes of public life.
Basic concepts and categories of statistics: statistical aggregate, statistical
unit, attribute, pattern, indicator, the system of statistical indicators.
Statistical research milestones.
Problems of organizing statistical surveys in the Russian Federation.
International statistics.
Major statistical publications (Russian and international).
Theme 1.2. Statistical monitoring
Statistical monitoring is the first stage of statistical research. Statistical
hypothesis development and methodology of statistical monitoring. Purpose of the
survey. Surveillance program. Statistical tools development. Organizational issues
of statistical monitoring. Choosing time and place to carry out a survey. Choosing
the form and type of statistical survey.
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Software development and personnel
training. Validity of statistical survey. Types and causes of error occurrence in
statistical monitoring.
Content of reporting. The main officially arranged statistical surveys
conducted by statistical agencies of Russia.
Theme 1.3. Consolidation and reporting of the monitoring results
Summarizing as the second stage of statistical research. Major content of
summary and its types. Analytical problems solutions on the basis of summary
results.
Statistical clusters and their purpose. Cluster analysis as a statistical method
of processing survey results. Types of clusters. Classification as a variety of
clusters in statistics. The unified system of classification and coding of technical
and economic and social data. Basic economic classifications.
Series of distribution: types, formation rules, graphic presentation. The
choice of grouping variable, determining the number of groups, size of class
interval. Tasks and methods of secondary grouping.
Statistical table and its elements. Principles of creation, types of tables and
rules of statistical table design.
Theme 1.4. General statistical indicators (absolute, relative, average)
The indicator as a category of statistics. The basis of statistical
measurement. Individual, group and general statistical indicators. Types of general
statistical indicators.
Absolute statistical values. The role of absolute values in statistics. Types of
absolute values. Natural, quazi-natural, labour and cost units of measurement of
absolute values. Limits to the use of absolute values in statistical analysis.
Absolute values in statistical publications.
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Relative magnitudes. The role of relative magnitudes and their uses in
statistical analysis. Principles of construction of relative statistical magnitudes.
Types and methods of presenting relative statistical magnitudes. The relative
magnitude of the planned target, plan fulfillment and dynamics. The relative
magnitude of the structure and coordination. The relative magnitude of intensity,
level of economic development, comparison. The use of relative values in
economic and financial calculation.
Average values. The role of average values in statistical analysis. Quality
requirements set for statistical data used in calculation of average values. Types of
average values. Power average values. Calculation of the average for grouped and
ungrouped data.
The arithmetic mean. Basic properties of the arithmetic mean. The problem
of weights. The harmonic mean. Choosing the type of the average. The quadratic
mean, the geometric mean. Structural averages and their types (the mode average,
the median, quartiles, deciles), their value and methods of calculation.
Average values in statistical publications. Graphic representation of
statistical indicators.
Theme 1.5. The analysis of ordered samples
The concept of variation. Absolute properties of variance: the range, mean
deviation, dispersion, standard deviation. The main mathematical properties of
dispersion. Relative properties of variance (the coefficient of oscillation, relative
linear deviation, coefficient of variation).
Alternative trait variance.
Types of variance (partial, average of the group, between-group variance,
total variance). The variance sum law. The empirical coefficient of determination.
The empirical correlation ratio.
The use of properties of variance in statistical analysis.
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Rates of differentiation and concentration, their importance and methods of
calculation: the coefficients of differentiation, Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl
index, the Rosenbluth indice.
The moment of distribution (initial, central, conditional).
Statistical study of distribution regularities of socio-economic phenomena.
The empirical distribution. Properties of the shape of the distribution: skewness
and the coefficient of excess.
The distribution of the random variable. Main types of the distribution curve.
The normal distribution law and its role in analyzing socio-economic processes and
phenomena. Testing of data against the normal distribution law. Pearson’s
goodness-of-fit test (chi square test); the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit
test.
Theme 1.6. Statistical study of the relationships between socio-economic
phenomena
The notion of the functional link and the statistical relationship. Correlation
and regression analysis. The nature of correlation and regression analysis, its
applicability in analyzing the relationships of socio-economic indicators.
Correlation analysis. The pair correlation coefficient, the partial correlation
coefficient and the multiple correlation coefficient; the theoretical coefficient of
determination; the theoretical correlation ratio. Testing for the significance of the
correlation coefficient using the Fisher and Yates’ table by the Student’s tcriterion.
Regression analysis. Choosing the form for the regression equation while
analyzing socio-economic phenomena. General principles of creation of regression
models. Linear and nonlinear regression models. Determining parameters of the
regression equation. Testing the significance of the regression equation (by the F4
criterion) and coefficients of the regression equation (by the Student’s t-criterion).
The coefficient of elasticity.
Nonparametric methods of determining of the correlation ratio between
quantitative and qualitative indicators. The Fechner coefficient. Spearman’s rank
correlation coefficient. Coefficients of association and contingency. The
coefficient of concordance.
Theme 1.7. Time series and their applicability in the analysis of socioeconomic phenomena
The notion of time series of socio-economic phenomena and their types.
Basic rules for creating time series.
Absolute, relative and average values of time series. The notion of the main
trend of time series. Testing the hypothesis of the trend by the Foster-Stuart test.
Methods of identifying the main trend of the time series: least square smoothing;
moving the average smoothing; analytical alignment of time series.
Probing of periodic oscillations of time series. The seasonal indexes
(seasonality).
Interrelated time series and methods of analysis.
Peculiarities of time series prediction. The interpolation and extrapolation
for time series.
Analysis of structural changes.
Theme 1.8. The index method of analysis
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The concept of the index and the role of indexes in statistical study of socioeconomic phenomena and processes. The classification of indexes.
Individual indexes: principles of index construction and analysis.
The aggregate form of a composite index: methods of construction and
analysis. Setting weights for aggregate indexes.
Average indexes: the scope of application and methods of construction.
Chain and base indexes.
Analysis of the qualitative indicator dynamics (indexes of variable and
constant composition, the structural change index).
The index method of the factor analysis.
Territorial indexes.
Stock indexes, their classification and methods of construction.
Theme 1.9. Sample survey
The theory of sample survey. Population and sample. Generalizing
characteristics of population and sample.
Methods of sample selection. Types of sampling: random sample,
mechanical sampling, cluster sample, stratified sample, multi-stage sample.
Average sampling error and limit sampling error for the mean and for a
proportion; the notion of confidence probability. Application of sample survey
results to the population. Construction of the confidence interval for the mean and
for a proportion.
Defining the size of the sample. Estimating probability of allowable
sampling error.
The small sample: the nature of, the scheme of item selection, determining
the average error and limit of error, the construction of confidence intervals for the
mean and for a proportion.
Using the sample survey method by statistical agencies of Russia.
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Unit II. Socio-economic statistics.
2.1. Population statistics
Statistical study of the population size. Sources of data on population.
Population census as the most important source of statistical data of population
size and composition. The categories of resident and the actual population and the
correlation between them. Estimated population, indicators of the average
population and methods of their calculation. Indicators of population dynamics.
Studying composition of population by sex, nationality, marital status, education
background, territory and other. Distribution of population by age group.
Construction of the gender and age pyramid of a country’s population. Indicators
of the demographic load. Indicators of population density. Indicators of population
distribution (urban and rural).
Natural movement. Absolute and relative indexes of population natural
movement: birth rate, mortality rate, natural increase. General and specific birth
rate and mortality rate indexes. Standardization methods of population natural
movement indicators. Life tables. Life tables indicators. Indicators of average life
expectancy.
Types of population migration. Absolute and relative indicators of
population migration.
Calculation methods of prospective population size.
2.2. Labour market and employment statistics
Economically active population. Size and make-up indicators of
economically active population. Employment and unemployment. Indicators of
the employed and the unemployed level and dynamics. Average unemployment
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duration determination.
Economically inactive population. Make-up of
economically inactive population.
Labour resources. Methods of labour resources calculation. Labour resources
balance and its importance in modern conditions for disclosing sources of
formation, characteristics of real connections and proportions in labour force
allocation through business activities and economic regions.
Scheme and system of labour resources balance indicators, major trends of
its analysis. Indicators of labour resources natural movement and migration.
Methods of calculation of prospective labour resources size.
Statistical research of the employed allocation through branches of economy
spheres of activity, patterns of ownership, business patterns, and countries’
territories. Classification of economically active population according to their
employment status. Russian occupation classifier.
2.3. National wealth statistics
National wealth, its meaning and the tasks of its statistical research. The
notion and make-up of economic assets in the System of National Accounts.
Balance sheet. Calculation of national wealth volume and net value of economic
sector core capital.
Statistics of national wealth in the Russian Federation. Natural and cost
accounting of economic resources.
Methods of quantitative evaluation of national wealth elements in current
and comparable prices. Research of national wealth volume dynamics.
2.4. System of National Accounts
National Accounts System as a system of interrelated indicators designed to
characterize economic development and dynamics. Classification of accounts in
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the System of National Accounts and principles of accounts construction.
Operating activity in the System of National Accounts. Margins of economic
production in the System of National Accounts. Market and non-market
production. Economic performance: goods, services, etc. Market and non-market
services. Production made for individual’s final consumption or gross capital
formation.
Goods and services output, intermediate consumption, added value and GDP
as the major indicator of the System of National Accounts. Evaluation methods of
production indicators (output, intermediate consumption, added value): producers’
prices, final consumption prices, base prices.
Production account construction in the System of National accounts. GDP
as the major indicator of the System of National Accounts. GDP calculation as a
sum of goods and services produced using production method.
Indicators of education accounts, allocation and using income in the System
of National Accounts. Primary income. GDP calculation using distributive method.
Gross National Income. Gross National Income distribution and redistribution.
National Disposable Income.
Final consumption. Final consumption expenses. Actual final consumption.
Saving. Capital accounts and indicators that characterize transactions in capital and
financial instruments.
Construction peculiarities of goods and services account and of accounts
that characterize external economic relations (“rest-of-world”). GDP calculation
using final use method.
GDP dynamics analysis. Calculation of GDP indicators in comparable
prices. GDP deflator index. International methods of GDP comparison.
2.5. Enterprise and organization statistics
An enterprise as a unit of statistical research. Structural enterprise statistics.
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Major groupings which are applied to study the structure of the fixed capital.
Natural and cost accounting of the fixed capital. Fixed capital assessment types.
Depreciation and wear-and-tear of the fixed capital. Methods of depreciation
calculation. Fixed capital consumption in the System of National Accounts. Fixed
capital availability characteristics as of the date and annual average.
Fixed assets balance at overall and depreciated value. Indicators of fixed
capital status, movement and using. Statistical research of yield on capital
investments and capital coefficient dynamics. Calculating output increase due to a
more efficient use of the fixed capital. Indicators of fixed capital degree. Statistical
research of equipment usage according to size, time, power and amount of work.
Stocks. Statistical research of size and make-up of stocks, statistical methods
of their usage analysis. Indicators of production provision with tangible assets.
Indicators of stocks turnover.
2.6. Labour statistics
Indicators of an organisation’s number of employees. Staff strength,
attendance strength. Calculation methods of an average staff strength and average
attendance strength and average number of actually working employees. Research
of labour force provision at enterprises. Labour force movement statistics. Labour
force balance. Absolute and relative indicators of
labour force turnover in
employing and firing. Statistical research of staff turnover and staff consistency.
Working time fund structure. Working hours balances. Indicators that
characterize working time fund usage. Average actual and fixed length of a
working period and working day and indicators of their usage. Analysis of factors
influencing total hours worked.
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Statistical indicators of work places usage. Coefficients of turnover, shift
system, continuity and integral index of work places and shifts usage. Loss of
working hours research.
Labour productivity and its importance for statistical research. Indicators of
performance efficiency: natural, labour, cost. Indicators of average per hour,
average daily, mean monthly output, their interrelation. Indicator of labour
requirement as an indicator of performance efficiency.
Output dynamics analysis with the help of output and labour inputs
indicators. Total indicators of performance efficiency. Natural, labour and cost
methods of output dynamics measurement. Analysis of dependence between
indicators of performance efficiency and working hours usage. Statistical research
of costs and labour productivity changes influence on volume production changes.
Statistical methods of performance efficiency growth research.
Labour remuneration.
Labour remuneration forms and systems. Gross
payroll and its make-up. Social benefits. Enterprises and organizations costs
structure for labour force. Indicators of average remuneration: average per hour,
average daily, mean monthly / annually. Interrelation of average remuneration
indicators. Research of average remuneration dynamics.
Statistical methods of analysis of working for wages differentiation
according to rate of remuneration and comparing of performance efficiency and
labour remuneration dynamics.
2.7. Statistical analysis of enterprises and organizations performance
Production and circulation costs. Statistical research of production and
circulation costs components. Statistical research of circulation costs capacity,
structure and dynamics. Statistical research of production prime cost and costs for
per ruble. Individual and total production prime cost indicators. Statistical methods
of analysis of separate factors influence on production prime cost.
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Analysis of enterprises and organizations performance. Statistical research
of economic performance: profits and cost effectiveness indicators.
2.8. Statistical methods of market conditions and business activity research.
Prices statistics
Statistics of economic activity types. Indicators of factory, agriculture,
construction output, trade, transport and communication.
Economic conditions and business activity. Economic research. Business
activity indicators of micro- and macro levels. Business activity level and change
assessment. Business activity indicators.
System of statistical indicators of economic conditions.
Statistical research of goods turnover volume, structure and dynamics.
Goods in stock statistic indicators. Indicators of goods circulation velocity.
Indicators of goods turnover provision with goods in stock. Statistic indicators of
delivery and goods sales.
Innovation activity statistics. Innovation activity and its types. Indicators of
innovation performance of enterprises. Indicators of innovation activity costs.
Prices and tariffs classification. System of indicators of prices and tariffs
statistics. Prices and tariffs level and differentiation analysis. Average price
calculating strategy. Statistical monitoring of consumer prices level and behavior.
2.9. Investments statistics and analysis of their economic effectiveness
Investments and investment activity. Investment make-up and major
groupings of its research. Financial investments and their forms. Investments in
non-financial assets, their types. Investments in fixed capital as the major source of
its reproduction. Technological structure of investments in fixed capital. Study of
reproductive fixed capital investment structure according to
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industrial
purpose
projects. Indicators of financial and non-financial assets investments dynamics and
structure. Indicators of economic effectiveness of investment projects.
2.10. Fundamentals of finance statistics
System of finance statistics indicators. Major indicators of
public
finances. Bank activity statistics. Currency circulation statistics. Major indicators
of securities statistics. Insurance statistics. Interest rates statistics. Exchange rates
statistics. Stock exchange statistics. Major indicators of commercial and budget
organizations finances statistics. Statistical research of inflation.
2.11. Statistics of social development and social standard of living
System of socio-economic indicators, showing social standard of living.
Indicators of national accounts system, showing social standard of living: gross
disposable income and gross adjusted disposable income of households, expenses
for final consumption of households, etc. Statistical survey of households’ budgets.
Indicators of money income, cash expenditures and household savings. Aggregate
income of households, money income and cash expenditures balance. Nominal and
real income. Calculation of absolute volume, structure, rate of change of the
given indicators.
Statistical analysis of income differences and pooling. Calculating
purchasing power parity, a minimum standard of living, level and standard of
poverty. Statistical research of volume, structure and level of material values and
services consumption. Consumer demand analysis, calculating elasticity
coefficient. Indicators of social security services. Indicators of social infrastructure
statistics.
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General indicators of social standard of living: gross national product per
capita, cost-of-living index, average time of life expectancy, Human Development
Index.
Statistical survey of social spheres: statistics of education, arts and
humanities, health care service, tourism, leisure, physical fitness and sports,
science and innovations, housing, quality of dwelling and municipal services,
environment and natural resources allocation.
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