L563F10.A06 Meredith Tamminga Phase III Phase III of Bermudez-Otero’s (2007) life cycle of a sound change is characterized by sensitivity to morphosyntactic structure and/or the emergence of lexical idiosyncrasy. I will explore the extent to which Canadian Raising exemplifies this phase. Canadian Raising is traditionally understood to be the allophonic rule that centralizes the nuclei of the diphthongs /ay/ and/aw/ before voiceless segments (Joos 1942, Chambers 1973). The raising of /ay0/ is found not only in Canada but throughout various regions of the United States as well, including the Inland North and Philadelphia. Raising has already been reported to have some sensitivity to morphological structure; morpheme boundaries potentially block raising, as in the case of unraised eyeful contrasting with raised Eiffel (Bermudez-Otero 2003). It has long been known that raising applies prior to the American English rule of flapping, leading to phonological opacity in cases such as writer versus rider. More recent studies, notably Fruehwald (2008), have documented lexical exceptions to the usual pattern and linked their development to the difficulty introduced into acquisition by opacity. As Fruehwald points out, the newly-developed unpredictability in the lexical distribution of /ay0/ indicates that it has phonemicized, meaning it has probably already moved out of Bermudez-Otero’s Phase II (the restructuring of the phonological representations underlying the phonetics) and into Phase III. I would suggest that Canadian Raising, at least in some dialects where it is found, may be undergoing, or at least poised to undergo, another previously-unreported development that could be indicative of Phase III. My own (largely Canadian) speech does contain at least one of the lexical /ay0/ irregularities Fruehwald reports for Philadelphia (raised spider). I also have some lexically-conditioned raising before /r/, as in fire but not wire. But perhaps most interestingly, is my intuition that the verb tire and its related adjective tired are raised, but that the tire you put on a car is unraised. This one-off use of raising to indicate a difference in part of speech would, I think, fit in well with Phase III. It is also one pathway along which we might expect to see a transition to Phase IV, as I will describe in the next paragraph. Of course, this transition may well never get underway given the probably somewhat stochastic nature of sound change, especially if the noun-verb distinction turns out to be no more than a personal idiosyncrasy. As a result, the wildly ambitious research project I will outline in the following paragraphs would be a risky one! It would be a great accomplishment for linguistic science to make a strong prediction about a future language change and then watch it unfold in real time. Canadian Raising may be on the brink of undergoing a series of substantial linguistic changes, and if it is we would be well situated to observe it in real time. The 1 following are my predicted steps for how Canadian Raising might transition from Phase III to Phase IV through a mix of transmission and diffusion, and how it might be detected in the course of a longitudinal dialect geography research project. First, I would predict the extension of the pre-/r/ noun/verb generalization to other homophonous noun/verb pairs: attire, desire, fire, wire, sire. This might be a reasonable analogical extension for children to make in their search for generalities during the course of acquisition – if they perceive the raising of /ay/ before /r/ in tire (v) to be syntacticosemantically meaningful, they may extract this meaning and use it to form verbs from other /ayr/ nouns. This might especially be prone to happen if the current raising status of many of these words is actually variable, even within individual speakers (which I suspect might be the case). The imposition by adults of such morphosyntactic structure on variation perceived through dialect contact seems to be much less likely. The association of raised /ayr/ with verbs in noun-verb pairs could then easily spread by essentially the same mechanism to other /ayr/ verbs that do not have nominal homophones. At some point, raising could thus come to have a component that is entirely morphological, replacing the original phonological pattern that /ay/ before /r/ should not be raised. At the same time, raising of /ay/ in other voiced environments seems more amenable to diffusion across different speech communities, as there is nothing particularly sysematic about it. In other words, we might expect to see the diffusion of /ayV/ through the lexicon take place at least partially through, essentially, the borrowing of superficial phonetic forms across groups of adults. Although of course the specific raised /ayV/ lexical items must originate somewhere, quite possibly in the course of normal acquisition, this is the notoriously difficult actuation problem and is not likely to be solved in this study. However, the spread of raised /ayV/ is a more tractable issue and could possibly be observed in real time if a sufficiently long-term study were undertaken. So how might such a study be constructed? The main challenge would be to collect sufficient data to study both lexical and geographic diffusion over time. I would begin by collecting a baseline sample that is geographically well-distributed from dialect areas that are known to have Canadian Raising. One possibility would be to post a reading passage online through a website that is equipped to collect recordings that people make themselves using their computer mics.1 Distribution of the URL for the survey could be done through Facebook, Twitter, Craigslist, academic listservs, etc. The reading passage would include tokens of noun/verb /ayr/ pairs in unambiguous contexts as well as the /ayV/ items that Fruehwald identified as being possibly raised in Philadelphia. Very basic demographic information (perhaps as simple as birth year and sex) could be collected as well. The data collected in the first year would serve two purposes. First, after making any changes in design that seemed necessary, the online survey could be repeated at 1 I’m sure I took a survey like this at some point but I can’t remember where. 2 regular intervals for a longer period of time (such as every three years for 30 years). Each subsequent year could be compared to the original data to assess whether individual lexical items were showing up in broader geographic environments over time. Second, while the long-term collection of the lexical diffusion data was underway, the baseline data could be used to identify more restricted locations where raised /ayV/ and specifically /ayr/ items were found at higher than average rates. A more extensive word list and reading passage could be administered to recruited participants in these areas, with participants screened for having at least one raised /ayV/ token so that they would provide useful data on raising. Ideally there would be an emphasis on finding participant families with children in the model of Johnson (2007), in the hopes of uncovering cases where children whose parents have at least one noun/verb distinction based on raising extend this pattern to other noun/verb homophone pairs. Even in the absence of such a felicitous discovery, within-family data would be useful for carefully studying the unbroken pattern of language acquisition that constitutes transmission. As the longitudinal aspect of the online study progressed, new families could be recruited in areas where raised /ayV/ tokens were appearing for the first time. This approach would be useful for exploring how diffused changes subsequently get transmitted. Let’s discuss how such a project might be implemented next term. The Atlas failed to inquire into these matters, and it might be possible to call up Atlas subjects as well as fish for people on the web. I think the writer/rider opposition has to be made central. References Bermudez-Otero, R. 2003. The acquisition of phonological opacity. In Jennifer Spenader, Anders Eriksson, and Osten Dahl (Eds.), Variation within Optimality Theory: proceedings of the Stockholm Workshop in ’variation within Optimality Theory’, 25–36. Bermudez-Otero, R. 2007. Diachronic phonology. In Paul de Lacy (Ed.), The Cambridge Handbook of Phonology, 497-517. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Chambers, J. K. 1973. Canadian Raising. Canadian Journal of Linguistics 18:131–135. Fruehwald, J. 2008. The spread of raising: opacity, lexicalization, and diffusion. University of Pennsylvania Working Papers in Linguistics 14: Iss. 2, Article 11. Johnson, D. 2007. Stability and change along a dialect boundary: the low vowels of southeastern New England. Doctoral dissertation, University of Pennsylvania. 3 Joos, M. 1942. A phonological dilemma in Canadian English. Language 18:141–144. 4