Greater Highlands Area – Data Worksheet 1. Census Data Observations/ Trends – What does the data tell you? In the area where there is the highest population of school age children there is no EPSB school and the highest percentage of families declaring school residency as Catholic More children in the 0-4 group than other school age groups. Over 730 children coming through (not including the age category 10-14) will need a school. Becoming a very large school potentially needed. Does not factor in students from other areas coming for Arts core Virginia Park has seen a slight decline in kids. Newton has seen an increase (more housing built there?), Montrose a sharp drop, while Bellevue and Highlands have been relatively stable Bellevue population low but static/declining, Highlands static, Montrose declining, Newton static/declining, Virginia Park low but static. Number of rental units in Montrose and Virginia Park may suggest transiency High level of rental property in Montrose In each area the number of 0-4 year olds is greater than 5-9 year olds, suggesting that the number of students may increase More students live south of 118 Ave than north In the GHA, there are 734 students and potential students from 0-9 years of age. Approx. 60% of these students attend public schools (~440 students), approx. 20% of these students attend Catholic schools (~146 students), approx. 20% did not provide a response (with regards to which school they attended) There are approx. 440 potential EPSB students (0-9 age range) residing in the greater Highlands area (+/- 146). What this data set does not take into account is the number of students that travel outside of their attendance area or how many come travel in (we presume this information can be found in the EPSB attendance area data set). Questions/Wonderings – What do I still need to know? What determines a drop in children in a neighbourhood – seniors holding on to their houses, houses too pricey? How many seniors and what age groups? Personally witnessing many seniors moving out and younger people moving in 440 students does not seem like an overwhelmingly large population for a k-9 school, and seems in keeping with what the GHA community has communicated with regards to school size. However, a super quick look at current (2014) attendance on the “Number of students by school attended and grade” data set numbers for the 4 affected schools tells a different story and provides an idea of what a consolidated school population could look like. According to this data set, there are presently a combined 692 students attending Montrose, Virginia Park, Highlands Junior High and Mount Royal Elementary. It is also important to note that there are students attending Mount Royal and Highlands Junior High that reside in the Rundle neighbourhood. Once their new school is built, will these students still be willing to attend schools in the GHA? 2. Neighbourhood Data Observations/ Trends – What does the data tell you? In the last 31 years, at it’s peak (around 1990), the GHA had 1052 resident EPSB students Kindergarten to Grade 9 – 975 attended school in the GHA. All neighbourhoods have declined since then 562 school age children in greater highlands area. If all choose local that is a large school plus the ones coming from outside area, and not factoring in for changing demographics of neighbhourhood, potential for a very large school There is fluctuation in most areas In most areas, the student populations have decreased over the past 30 years Over the past two to three years, some areas are seeing slight growth There has been a steady decline in numbers of children in almost all areas of the last 30 years. Obviously that has an impact on the number and size of schools that is practical – although small schools can be successful, e.g. Virginia Park Number of junior high aged students living in Greater Highlands EPSB neighbourhoods is among the lowest numbers in the past 30 years The number of elementary students residing in Bellevue, Montrose, Newton and Mount Royal neighbourhoods has decreased over the last 31 years The number of elementary students residing in the Virginia Park neighbhourhood over the last 31 years has shown the greatest constancy with numbers for 2007-2014 similar to 1984-1988 The EPSB defined neighbourhoods suggests about 100 fewer students living in the area than the census data indicates (note: neighbourhood data only includes resident EPSB students) Questions/Wonderings – What do I still need to know? The neighbourhoods, overall, have fluctuated over the past 30 years, it appears as though attendance numbers will stay lower. What happens if they don’t and the mature neighbourhoods begin to realize a significant increase in children? Is there a plan for this, in the event of a significant increase? What are the categories listed as 21,22 and 23? 3. Attendance Area Data Observations/ Trends – What does the data tell you? Only half of children in area attend designated school Majority attend Arts Core There is an indication that kids are being taken to school some distance (in some cases). There could be a number of reasons for this: old neighbourhood and they want to stay with their friends; family in the area (caregivers while the parent(s) is at work), etc. The majority of kids that are not going to their catchment school are going to other neighbourhood schools “Neighbourhood” schools ofen hold fewer than half of their neighbhourhood kids, eg. Of 177 Montrose elementary kids, 70 go to Montrose School. Mount Royal is the same. Junior high students from Highlands go to schools all over the city, although about 40 per cent go to Highlands junior. Less than 50% of the students living in the greater Highlands attendance area attend their designated school Of those who do not attend their designated school, more than 65% attend alternative programs If all of the EPSB students residing in the entire GHA (not including Mount Royal/RJ Scott dual area – to be included in the Greater Lawton Area replacement school attendance area) attended a new or modernized K-9 replacement school, the enrolment would be 609 students. Out of the 609 resident EPSB students, only 491 currently attend school in the GHA. Montrose AA – 22 students access Arts Core at MR, 16 at VP, 3 attend Victoria. Only 77/177 attend Montrose School, meaning 100 students attend elsewhere (67/100 are enrolled in a special needs or alternative program). 155 attend a school in the GHA Montrose/Mount Royal dual AA – of the 87 students residing in the dual area, 14 attend Montrose and 24 MR (Arts Core), 22 attend VP and 3 attend Victoria. 49 students choose to attend elsewhere (39 enrolled in a special needs or alternative program). 60 students attend a school in the GHA. Mount Royal AA – of the 84 students residing, 24 attend MR, 24 attend VP, and 3 attend Victoria. 60 students attend elsewhere (39 attend a special needs or alternative program). 51 students attend a school in the GHA Mount Royal/RJ Scott dual AA – to be included in the attendance are for the new Greater Lawton area replacement school. Of the 57 students residing, 30 attend MR, 7 attend RJS, 3 attend VP, and 2 attend Victoria. 20 students choose to attend elsewhere (14 are enrolled in special needs or alternative programs). 33 attend a school in the GHA Virginia Park AA – of the 53 students residing in the area, 31 attend VP, 3 attend MR, 2 attend Victoria. 22 students choose to attend elsewhere (16 enrolled in special needs or alternative programs). 36 attend a school in the GHA. Highlands AA – Of the 208 junior high students residing in the AA, 81 attend Highlands, 19 attend Victoria and 127 students choose to attend elsewhere (65 enrolled in special needs or alternative programs). Questions/Wonderings – What do I still need to know? Does the school board value “neighbourhood” schools anymore? If EPSB were to run programs other than the Arts, would it encourage people to stay in their own catchment area (neighbourhood)? I believe that EPSB only runs Arts programs, would there be a benefit to run some kind of sports program as well (basketball, volleyball, soccer)? Schools with an alternative program in the area are doing well and are either at capacity or close to capacity. Where are the other students coming from that are attending Arts Core? Why no data from Newton? If new school encourages more local children to attend how big will new school need to be to also accommodate all the students coming from other areas? 4. School Data Observations/ Trends – What does the data tell you? Montrose data has remained relatively stable over the last 31 years (2011-2014 comparable to 1984-1987) Mount Royal is the largest it has been in 31 years Virginia Park enrolment has remained relatively stable over the last 31 years Highlands school has experienced significant decreased enrolment in the last 31 years There are smaller Div 1 numbers than Div 2 numbers at Montrose. The inverse is true at Mount Royal and Virginia Park Most students from outside of the attendance area attend alternative programs Montrose elementary student population peaked back in 1991, and slid again this year, down 30 students to 136 Mount Royal elementary had its highest enrolment every this year, at 220. That’s double the enrolment of six years ago, and may be because of its Arts Core program. About half the students come from the Mount Royal area near the school, the rest from other areas. In particular, there are this year 17 students from the Rundle area. Once there is a new consolidated school in that Lawton-Rundle area, will those students still come to Mount Royal? Virginia Park has seen pretty stable enrolment over the last 30 years, with a high of 210 students in 1999. This year enrolment is 173, one more than last year. This school has a successful Arts Core program, and enrolment is limited by the size of the building. Fewer than 20 per cent of its students come from the immediate Virginia Park area. Highlands junior saw its first enrolment increase this year in more than a decade, up 41 students to 163. It has also adopted an Arts Core program. However, that enrolment is still less than a third of its peak enrolment back in 1989. And nearly a third of the enrolment comes from the Lawton (Beverly) area, where a new consolidated school is going to be built. Montrose School – 7 students come from other low enrolment schools, 14 enrolled in full-day Kindergarten, 14 from dual designated area, 91/136 from own attendance area. Mount Royal School – 95/200 are from own attendance area (incl. dual designated areas). 78 students come from other low enrolment schools. Virginia Park School – 31/173 students reside in the attendance area. 42 come from other low enrolment schools, 49 come from areas designated to Mount Royal Highlands School – 81/163 are from own attendance area, 49 from neighbouring Lawton. Montrose has seen some fluctuation, and leveled off over the past few years. Quite a decline in student population this year. Mount Royal has seen a steady incline over the past few years Virginia Park has seen a slight annual decline over the past decade Highlands has seen significant decline over the past several years with a significant increase for 2014 Enrolment changes as community ages Since Mount Royal changed to Arts Core attendance has doubled Why is Virginia Park on the cutting block? Their attendance is pretty much stable and I thought this process was for underutilized schools. Montrose may be experiencing ups and downs due to high level of rental property Questions/Wonderings – What do I still need to know? What factors go into the rise or decline in numbers – programs, demographics? Is there any relation to the schools that are seeing the increases, with running an Arts program? Why is Virginia Park included in school closure? Was mentioned in report from last consultation to NOT include it. Virginia Park should not be forced to join this amalgamation, as their enrolment is strong. What is the capacity of each school? When did EPSB move to open boundaries? Why is Mount Royal included as they are now at capacity when consideration is given to the additional space required for arts core? If it is just Montrose that has falling attendance, why can’t this school just be closed? Possible moved to Highlands Junior High as a K-9 school? Why is there no opportunity to discuss and advocate for keeping Mount Royal and Virginia Park as is with upgrading? Why no discussion on the loss of potentially $300,000 every two years from lost casino revenues – how is this going to be made up – will the province fund? Cannot expect school to fundraise yearly for that amount of money!