The Fourth Turning – Strauss and Howe
Introduction
History creates generations, and generations create history. This symbiosis between life
and time explains why, if one is seasonal, the other must be. If generational
archetypes repeat in a fourfold cycle, this implies a recurrence of social moods or eras
that form these archetypes sequentially.
This is precisely what Strauss and Howe discovered as they investigated generations in
American history: Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has traversed a
four-stage cycle of social moods or eras. At the start of each era—or “turning” as the
authors call them—people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation,
and the future. Each turning tends to last about twenty years: roughly the span of a
generation, and the amount of time it takes to pass through one entire phase of life. Four
turnings comprise a full cycle of about 80 to 90 years, or the length of one long human
life. The Romans named this length of time the saeculum, meaning both “a long human
life” and “a natural century.” In Generations, Strauss and Howe trace seven Saecula in
Anglo-American history going back to the late 15th century (for more information see
Historical Generations and Turnings).
Each of the four turnings comes with its own identifiable mood, recurring over the
centuries, from one saeculum to the next. We can think of these turnings as the seasons of
history: At one extreme is the winter or “Crisis,” a period marked by major secular
upheaval, when society focuses on reorganizing the outer world of institutions and public
behavior. At the other extreme is the summer or “Awakening,” a period marked by
cultural or religious renewal, when society focuses on changing the inner world of values
and private behavior. Both of these are defining eras in which people observe that historic
events are radically altering their social environment. During Crises, great peril provokes
a societal consensus, an ethic of personal sacrifice, and strong institutional order. During
Awakenings, an ethic of individualism emerges, and the institutional order is attacked by
new social ideas and spiritual agendas. Between the Crisis and Awakening are
transitional seasons, similar to Spring and Fall.
It is therefore no accident that America has experienced great cataclysms or “Crises”
about every eighty years or so. Exactly eighty-five years before Pearl Harbor Day, the
first Confederate shot was fired at Fort Sumter. Eighty-five years before that, the
founding fathers were signing the Declaration of Independence, launching the American
Revolution. Another eighty-seven years passed between the Anglo-American “Glorious
Revolution” of 1689 and Independence day. Go back a slightly longer period, and you
reach the English naval victory over the Spanish Armada—a turning point in England’s
history. And another century before that takes you to the end of the War of Roses, a
bloody civil war whose passage enabled “Tudor” England to emerge as a modern nation
state.
The cycle of turnings also explains why episodes of spiritual and cultural upheaval tend
to occur about halfway in between these nation-defining events. Go forty-five years
backwards from the Spanish Armada and you land near the end of England’s
tumultuous Protestant Reformation. Go forty-five years forward from 1929, the onset
of the Great-Depression-World War II era, and you land in 1969, in the first throes of the
America’s Consciousness Revolution.
What social force drives the cycle of turnings and determines its periodicity? The answer
is generations. America’s national character reflects a composite of generational personas
across all phases of life, from youth to old age. Every two decades or so, the current elder
leaders pass on, new generations enter old age, midlife and young adulthood, and a new
batch of children arrives. As all generations age into the next life phase—and a new
social role—their distinct generational attitudes and behaviors transform these life
phases, provoking powerful new currents in the public mood. The composite lifecycle
becomes something altogether new, fundamentally changing the attitudes and behaviors
of society as a whole. The national mood shifts, and America enters a new turning.
First Turning
The First Turning is a High. Old Prophets die, Nomads enter elderhood, Heroes enter
midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born. This is
an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about
where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled
by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War
II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John Kennedy
in 1963, a key lifecycle marker for today’s older Americans. Coming of age during this
High was the Artist archetype Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1942). Known for their
caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults embodied the ethos of the
High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and slipped quietly into
America’s gleaming new suburbs.
In Parsons’ terms, a First Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order
and the demand for social order are high. Examples of earlier First Turnings include the
post-Civil War Reconstruction Era, sometimes called the Victorian High of industrial
growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution Era of Good Feelings, when
Thomas Jefferson celebrated the advance of science and empire.
Second Turning
The Second Turning is an Awakening. Old Nomads die, Heroes enter elderhood, Artists
enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is
born. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual
autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly
tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young
activists and spiritualists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural poverty.
America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned
from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid 1960s to the tax revolts of the early
‘80s. Coming of age during this Awakening was the Prophet archetype Boom
Generation (born 1943 to 1960), whose passionate idealism and search for authentic
self-expression epitomized the mood of the era.
In Parsons’ terms, a Second Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is
high, but the demand for such order is low. Examples of earlier Second Turnings include
the Third Great Awakeningaround 1900, marked by labor protests, Billy Sunday
evangelicals, and “new woman” feminists, and theTranscendental Awakening, which
Henry David Thoreau described as a period “when we have lost the world…and begin to
find ourselves.”
Third Turning
The Third Turning is an Unraveling. Old Heroes die, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets
enter midlife, Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is
born. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High. Institutions are weak
and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which
teach the lesson that society must coalesce and build. Unravelings follow Awakenings,
which teach the lesson that society must atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent
Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the early 1980s and
probably ending in 2008. The era opened with triumphant “Morning in America”
individualism and drifted toward a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, an edgy
popular culture, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps.
Coming of age during this Unraveling was the Nomad archetype Generation X (born
1961-1981), whose pragmatic, free-agent persona and Survivor-style self-testing have
embodied the mood of the era.
In Parsons’ terms, a Third Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order
and the demand for such order are low. Examples of earlier Unravelings include the
periods around the “roaring” 1920s ofProhibition, the Mexican War in the 1850s, and
the French and Indian Wars in the 1760s. These were all periods of cynicism and bad
manners, when civic authority felt weak, social disorder felt pervasive, and the culture
felt exhausted.
Fourth Turning
The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter
midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.
This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the
ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic
authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to
locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have
eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and
redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the
stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of
age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to
1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era.
Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show
many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement,
improving behavior, and collective confidence.
In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is
low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include
the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of
momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.